587: 15 Transactions for Week 13

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha, j J zacher Resa, what's up everyone. It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at fandled at number five dot com in this episode five hundred and eighty seven of the Late Round Podcast the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I know some of you have already watched your trade deadlines pass, but it hasn't in a lot of leagues thanks to the extra week this year. Not only that, but these transactions can still be helpful. Even if you can't actually trade players, you can at least plan accordingly based on who's a buying a sell, So keep that in mind as you listen today. Before get into the transactions, though, I want to remind you guys to check out this week's Sunday Million contest over on Fandel. The prize pool is a whopping one point seventy five million dollars. In first place takes home three hundred thousand dollars. All you have to do is head over to Fandel today and click on the NFL Sunday Million content. Draft your lineup of players, sit back and enjoy Sunday NFL Football. Go to fandle dot com today to participate in the NFL Sunday Million. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandol dot com or download the fandal app for more details. Add Alexander Madison. Dalvin Cook's gonna miss some time because he dislocated his shoulder on Sunday against the forty nine Ers. That means that Alexander Madison is going to be the starter for Minnesota once again. We have a two game sample this season of the Vikings offense without Dalvin Cook. In those games, Madison saw twenty six rush attempts and twenty five rush attempts. He had a seventy nine percent running back rush are in a ninety three percent running back rush are And unlike previous seasons where we saw Alexander Madison as the lead back, he's had good target shares without Dalvin Cook. This year, He's had target shares of twenty one percent and twenty three percent. They've basically utilized Alexander Madison exactly how they utilized Dalvin Cook when Dalvin Cook's been sidelined. So it's obvious if Alexander Madison is on your Averbire, you need to add him this week. I usually don't talk about players who are rostered in about half of Yahoo leagues, but in this case, I think I had to because at the end of the day after waivers run this week, Alexander Madison should be rostered in one hundred percent of leagues. Add Jamal Williams. So DeAndre Swift's injury kind of ruined Thanksgiving for some people this year. He left Detroit's game with a shoulder injury against Chicago. He finished the day with just three point nine PPR points. Thankfully, it looks like that injury is just day to day and not like week to week. But you should still be adding Jamal Williams off the waiver wire this week. He's currently rostered in just thirty nine percent of Yahoo leagues, and he saw the bulk of the backfield work against Chicago once DeAndre Swift was sidelined. He had a seventy nine percent running back rush here in a twenty percent target chair. If he has that type of backfield chair in week thirteen, he'll be a worthy start by DeAndre Swift. Okay, so it's a little bit weird that I just talked about adding Jamal Williams Now I'm saying by Deandre's but for teams looking forward to the playoffs and for teams that are willing to take on a risk because obviously he's hurt right now, I think he makes sense. We know that he has RB one upside. He's been in RB one and PPR formats this year, and whoever has DeAndre Swift, they might be a little bit down on him based on what happened on Thanksgiving, and for what it's worth. According to Pro Football Doc, he thinks this injury is not a long term injury. So I think that if you're a playoff team, and specifically if you're a playoff team with a first round by, Swift is a really good target. In Week sixteen, Detroit gets Atlanta, that's a top five team in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. The next week at Seattle, that's another good opponent, So he could have two monster weeks during the most important time of the fantasy football year. Add Chuba Hubbard and Amir Abdullah. Christian McCaffrey just can't catch a break. On Sunday, McCaffrey was seen in a walking boot after that game against Miami because he rolled his ankle, and then on Monday he's out for the year. We won't see Chris McAffrey on a football field again this season. I think it's obvious for people to say, oh, I gotta have Chewba Hubbard now. Earlier in the year, when CMC was sidelined, Hubbard played five games of the team's top back. In those games, he averaged a running back rush chair per game of eighty one point five percent. He had a target share per game of ten point four percent. But even with that volume, he never gave us a top twelve running back performance in PPR leagues, and that's part of the downside here. Christian McCaffrey was an obvious RB one as long as he was healthy. Cheuba Hubbard is a volume based RB two. That's what he's been And a big problem for Chewba Hubbard is that the Panthers have utilized a mirror Abdulla in a pass catching role over the last month or so. Since Week eight, which is a five game sample, Abdullah has hit a double digit percentage target share four times. His target share per game average is fourteen percent during this time and as my colleague Jim shn has pointed out he's out snapped Hubbard in four straight games thanks to that receiving role he has. And then there's the fantasy playoffs. The Panthers have arguably the worst schedule for running backs during weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen. They get the Bills, Buccaneers, and Saints. At the very least, Caroline is going to be underdogs against Buffalo and Tampa Bay, and any negative game script means that we might see more a Mire Abdullah than Chewba Hubbard. It's understandable as to why Chuba Hubbard is going to be a popular ad this week. We've already seen him get a lot of work with Christian McCaffrey sidelined. But I think that you could argue very easily that right now is the time to actually sell Chewba Hubbard, like pick him up off the waiver wire and see what you can get for him, because chances are the Panthers aren't going to give him a full bell cow workload with a Mir Abdullah in the mix, And even if they feed him like they did earlier this year, he's got a real chance to post very average numbers in the fantasy playoffs because of these matchups. So to me, in PPR formats, yes, I would prioritize Chewba Hubbard over a Mire Abdullah, But I think we're going to look back and see that Abdullah was the better value. Your league mates are gonna spend a ton of cash to get Hubbard, but you can spend very little and get Abdullah. And keep in mind, the Panthers have a bye this week. That's another reason to not be very very high on this backfield. I think overall, I'm just not really feeling this backfield all that much, given the matchups, given how they're likely to split it, and given the fact that the offense just hasn't performed very well. Sell Miles Gaskin, So, Miles Gaston has been really good over the last month and a half. He scored at least fifteen PPR points in four of his last six games. He's finishes in RB one so top twelve running back and three of his last four, and that includes a nineteen point two touchdown performance on Sunday against the Panthers. Now, during this stretch where Gaskin's seen some RB one outings, he's also seen his rushing usage increase. From weeks one through eight, Gaskin's running back rush share per game was only forty eight point six percent. His target share per game was about thirteen percent. Over his last four though, that running back rush here umber has jumped to seventy five point four percent. The target share is still pretty good at ten percent. So the peripherals are there. Why am I sitting here on this show saying to sell Miles Gaskin? Well. The Dolphins recently claimed Philip Lindsay, and in his first game action with the team, which came on Sunday, he ran the ball twelve times and had a thirty six point four percent running back rush share. Gaskin's running back rush share this past weekend was actually the lowest that he's seen since Week six. Now, maybe some of this was the result of this positive game script that Miami had. Lindsay did have five of his twelve attempts in the fourth quarter, but this could also be the start to a headache. Not only did Miami claim Lindsay last week, but they claimed Lindsay after Gaskins struggled on the ground. Even though Gaskin's been good in fantasy football, he hasn't been a very good running back. According to Number five's expected points model, he's had a well below average twenty eight point eight percent success rate that measures the percentage of positive expected points runs made by a running back. What's really helped Miles Gaskin recently as touchdowns. He scored twice in Week twelve and now average a touchdown per game over the last month. And while he has a really really good matchup against the Jets in Week fifteen, he gets the Titans and Saints in Week sixteen and seventeen. Those are two of the better teams in football against running backs. There just seems to be a lot working against Miles Gaskin right now despite his performance on Sunday, and I think because of that performance, you have a cell high opportunity ad Taysom Hill. It sounds like Taysom Hill is going to finally be the QB one for the Saints. Fantasy football managers now have to add him. He started four games last year and in those four games he averaged over twenty one fantasy points per game while scoring no fewer than seventeen and a half points. He was QB thirteen or better and weekly scoring in every single start, and as we know it has to do with his legs. He averaged fifty two rushing yards and a rushing touchdown per game during those starts. Maybe those rushing touchdowns regress a little bit, but like we've seen with Jalen Hurts, the rushing component is nothing to brush off. Taysom Hill could very easily be a QB one now by Saquon Barkley. This transaction absolutely needs context. If you're feeling pretty good about your playoff chances, there's no reason to take on a player like Saquon Barkley because the Giants offense just isn't very good and Barkley hasn't been close to special this season. His highest single game rushing total is just fifty seven yards. And not only that, but New York doesn't have a good fantasy playoff schedule. This transaction is for teams that need a spark. It's for teams that need a little bit more variance on their squad. Barkley was back to seeing his traditional workload in Week twelve. In week eleven, which was his return from injury, he saw just two thirds of New York's running back rushes, and he had a sixteen point seven percent target share that target share was great, but the running back rush share was not so great. At least for Saquon Barkley. This past week against Philadelphia, that running back rush share number jumped by about fifteen percentage points. The target share was over seventeen percent, and he also saw his second highest snap share of the season at eighty six point seven percent. It's just really tough to find those peripheral numbers at the running back position. Volume drives fantasy football, and as a result, it makes sense for teams to try to buy Barkley because he's seeing that volume. But again, I can't stress this enough. If you're feeling pretty good, if your team's in a good spot, you don't need to make this transaction. This is all about pouncing on the opportunity to acquire after a down performance. Add Tevin Coleman. You know, it made sense that Tevin Coleman saw the most work in the Jets backfield in week twelve. In week eleven, we saw him out touched Ty Johnson in that backfield after Michael Carter's injury. So with Carter on ir, Coleman was going to see at least some work in that backfield. And then the Jets didn't have a negative game script. That meant more Coleman and Les Johnson because Johnson's been utilized more as a pass catcher this year. Now, Coleman didn't score the most points at running back for New York this week because Austin Walter is a real person and he found the end zone. But Coleman did see fifty one point six percent of the team's running back rushes and he had a thirteen percent target share. Both of those numbers were highs in that backfield. Now, obviously it's tough to trust anyone on the Jets, and that's even truer when we're talking about Jets running backs. Michael Carter was usable because he was capturing a large portion of that backfield. Coleman's numbers weren't as high, so you got a temper expectations here. He should just be added this week because it's really tough to find any sort of relevancy at the running back position in fantasy football by David Montgomery. So during the three weeks since David Montgomery's return from injury, he's played no fewer than eighty four percent of Chicago's snaps in a single game. He's average a running back rush share per game of eighty three point six percent and his target share per game is six percent. He's also scored no more than ten point four PPR points in any one of those games. There is some concern like that receiving workload is not great. His highest target share in a single game since coming back from injuries just eight point one percent. And it's not like the Bears have this high powered offense. But according to Pro Football Focus, Montgomery's ranked in the top ten and routes run at the running back position over the last three weeks, He's actually been the only Bears running back who's been targeted. They just haven't targeted their running backs a whole lot. And the Bears also have a really nice playoff schedule for David Montgomery. They get the Vikings, Seahawks, and Giants in weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen. It's actually the second best schedule for running backs in the fantasy playoffs. That's according to my adjusted Fantasy points allowed method, because each of those teams rank his top half matchups for running backs. So I would expect a better David Montgomery moving forward at Dontrell Hilliard Adrian Peterson is no longer a Tennessee Titan, and Jeremy McNichols missed Week twelve. That left the backfield to Dontrell Hilliard and Deontay Foreman. Hilliard outscored Forman in PPR formats eighteen point three to ten point two, and he was the one who was utilized more as a pass catcher. He did a nine and a half percent target share. Foreman's target share is four point eight percent, but Foreman out attempted Hilliard nineteen to twelve. So I would say the split between these two backs, when you're factoring the type of touches they were getting, it was about fifty to fifty. But Hilliard's rostered in fewer leagues than Foreman over on Yahoo, and he should be added this week. The Titans have gone with a run heavy approach, running the ball more frequently than they've thrown it in two of their last three games. Some volumes should go to their running backs in a given week, and if Jeremy McNichols continues to miss time, Hilliard should keep up a decent target share. Now, I will say I think that Deontay Foreman, if he's out in your Waiver Wire. He's a better AD this week than Dontrell Hilliard because in that game against New England he had a similar snapshare as Hilliard. But that game saw the Titans in a negative game script and Hilliard's the pass catcher in that backfield. That script favored Hilliard, but even still, Foreman saw a lot of work. So in a better game flow situation, Deontay Foreman could be useful. Both guys should be added this week. AD Kendrick Bourne. So, if you've listened to The Sleeper Show over the last couple of weeks, I've talked about Kendrick Bourne, and I talked about him last week, and he came through with a very, very big game. Across Bourne's first seven games this season, he averaged a target share per game of eleven percent, and he hit a fifteen percent target shair in just one game. Over his last five, that target share per game has risen to eighteen point six percent. He hasn't fallen below a fifteen percent target shair in a single contest over his last five games. Naturally, his fantasy performances have gotten better. During his first seven games, he averaged a little under eleven PPR points, per game. Since then, it's been thirteen point seven and he has two twenty three plus point outings over his last three. Now, these splits that I'm thrown at you, guys, they're arbitrary. He hasn't actually been playing that much more. He's just been getting more work in the offense and it's paying off in fantasy football. So if you need a little bit of wide receiver help, especially from a big play wide receiver, he does make some sense off the waiver wire. Sell Damian Harris. I've talked about Damian Harris so many freaking times in this show this year because he just keeps beating touchdown expectation. He's just the kind of running back that I do not like in fantasy football. He was easier to feel decent about earlier in the year when the running back rush share numbers were in that like sixty to eighty percent range, but that's fallen dramatically over the last couple of games with Ramandre Stevenson in the mix. In Week eleven, Harris saw his running back rush share at just forty three and a half percent. That's the lowest of the season. This past week it was fifty five percent. That's still a lot lower than his sixty five percent average from weeks one through eight. Let's just face it, guys, he's one hundred percent touchdown dependent. He's just fortunately scored in six of his last seven games. Even still, even with those touchdowns, he's given you just one RB one performance during that timeframe because he doesn't catch pass They don't utilize him that way. With his peripherals pointing downward because of Stevenson, it's hard to feel good about Damien Harris from here on out. And considering he scored a touch on this past week, maybe you can sell him. Add Rex Burkhead. So on Sunday, we saw the Texans backfield for the first time this year without Philip Lindsay, who I talked about earlier, and as you'd expect, it was a split backfield. Rex Burkehead had twelve attempts, David Johnson had ten, and they each had three targets. But if you want to add one of these guys off the waiver wire this week, I'm going to go with Rex Burkhead because if you look at their snap shares, Burkehead had a sixty one percent snapshare this past week. That was the highest snapshare of any Houston running back this season. I don't think Rex Burkhead has a lot of upside. I don't think he's gonna save your fantasy lineup, but he's good depth. Add Boston Scott so with Jordan Howard's sideline. In Week twelve, Boston Scott led the Eagles with a sixty two and a half percent running back rush share. He ran the ball fifteen times for sixty four yards. I wouldn't say that was planned, though. He was out attempted by Miles Sanders six to four in the first half, and then Sanders hurt his ankle at the start of the second half and that likely led to more work for Boston Scott. And you should be adding Boston Scott because of that this week, because what if Miles Sanders misses time, What if Jordan Howard misses time all of a sudden, Boston Scott would see a pretty big workload in that backfield, and then I'd expect Kenneth gain Well to play a pass catching role. So add Boston Scott because there could be volume this week depending on how things shake out. Add the Minnesota Vikings defense. So if you go over to Fandel's Sportsbook. You'll see that the Vikings are seven point favorites over the Lions this week, and Detroit's been the seventh friendliest offense for opposing defenses this year according to adjusted Fantasy points allowed. This is just a process move. It's a defense that's a favorite against a below average quarterback. So the Vikings make a lot of sense as a streamer this week. The sixteenth transaction this week that you can't get in my fifteen Transactions call him over on number fire dot com is to add Sony Michelle. When you look at the current fantasy landscape, one thing is obvious. Running backs are getting hurt, as they do each year. This is most definitely the time of year to handcuff. It's been the time of year to handcuff, whether it's handcuffing one of your running backs or someone else's running back. You should be rostering backup running backs who have a chance to become usable pieces if the top running backs on their teams get hurt. Sony Michelle is one of those players. He feels like the most obvious lower rostered handcuff that would become something if the starter goes down and he's rostered in about one quarter of Yahoo leagues right now, so you should add him. And while you're doing that, look at players like Ronald Jones. Make sure that Daryl Williams is still rostered. Make sure backup running backs and good offenses are rostered right now. It can really really make a difference down the stretch. That's gonna do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show