317: 15 Transactions for Week 12

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Speaker 1: This is the Label Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha, j Jake Zacher Resa. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharesen, the editor in chief at FanDuel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode three hundred and seventeen of the Late Round podcast on many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. I'm a little under the weather today, so I'm sorry if I sound a little bit like Chucky from the Rugrats. Now keep in mind, I understand that a lot of you have seen your trade deadlines pass, so you can't just buy and sell players very easily. You can also use this week's show as just gathering more information about fantasy football, but you can also think of the buys and sells as sort of confidence picks. If a player is a bye, you can feel more confident in that player moving forward, and then vice versa next week. In the moving forward, the show's going to be geared way more towards ads and drops. But not all trade deadlines have passed, so I have one more week of heavier buys and cells before getting into this week's transactions. I wanted to send another reminder to you guys to check out odds Fire. It's an odds comparison that number fires engineers developed, and it's the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated US market. Compare odds, quickly, identify the best value, and even examine first party FanDuel data all in one place. I use it every single week when I'm analyzing the slate of games, and I think that you guys would get a lot of use out of it too. Never settle, always get the best odds. Check out the experience for free now at number fire or oddsfire dot com. Gambling problem called one eight hundred Gambler by Saquon Barkley. The last time we saw Saquon Barkley, he had thirteen carries for one yard. It was a generational experience, but a lot of people were wondering, are the Giants just gonna shut Saquon Barkley down for the rest of the season. They're already out of it, so why throw Saquon Barkley out there? Pat Shermer has said that's not going to happen, and that's good for fantasy football managers because since returning from his ankle injury. Barkley's handled about ninety seven percent of New York's running back carries and he has an eighteen percent target share. He's seen elite usage, and in weeks fifteen and sixteen the Fantasy Football playoffs, New York will face Miami and Washington. Both of those teams rank his top seven opponents for opposing fantasy running backs when adjusted for strength of opponent, So Saquon Barkley could go nuts in the Fantasy football playoffs. Add Deebo Samuel. Deebo Samuel still available in about half of Yahoo league's and that needs to change. It should have changed last week before he had another big performance. But Deebo Samuel has watched his snap rate increase over the last five weeks. Back in Week five, his snap rate was about forty percent to fifty percent, sort of in that range. This past Sunday it was seventy nine percent, and that was just shy of a season high, which happened last week at eighty three percent. Now, that's naturally correlated with more volume. The more you're on the field, the higher the probability that you're gonna see targets. And he's averaged about a twenty two percent target share over his last three games. And since he's good at football, he's a very good wide receiver. He's now looking at back to back wide receiver one performances. So if he's on your waiver wires still, he absolutely needs to be added. Sell mark Ingram. Players in good offenses tend to score more touchdowns than they should. A good example of this is Aaron Jones. But even still, players in good offenses can still outperform these peripheral numbers, and that's what we've seen from mark Ingram throughout this entire season. We know that volume related statistics correlate to fantasy success. With running backs, we're looking at rush attempts, targets, snaps played. Those are all really important numbers, but mark Ingram doesn't have great marks within those statistical categories. He's fifteenth in running back rush attempts. That's fine, but it's not elite. He's twenty first in running back rushing share, and among all running backs he rings thirty eighth in target share, and all of this being benefited by the fact that he hasn't missed a game, and his snap share isn't that great either. He hasn't hit a fifty percent snap share since Week seven, and he barely ranks in the top thirty and snap right played. But here we are in week twelve and mark Ingram is the RB eleven in PPR formats. It's because of touchdowns. He had another two touchdown day in Week eleven and he now has ten touchdowns on the year. But based on his yardage total, and we know that yards correlate to touchdowns, but based on that total, he should have four point six fewer touchdowns than he actually has, even if you cut that number in half. Because of the offense that he's in, it's hard to sell mark Ingram as anything but a negative touchdown regression candidate. So he should slow down as we move through the rest of the season. He's still a start worthy fantasy has set. I think he's just more of an RB two rather than the RB one that he's played as throughout the season. Add Bo Scarborough, so Bo. Scarborough ended up leading the Lions backfield in Week eleven. He played forty nine percent of the team snaps. That was twenty percent higher than any other Detroit running backs that includes Ty Johnson, and that allows Scarborough to see about seventy four percent of the team's running back rushes, which was a share that hadn't been hit since Carrie on Johnson was active. Scarborough likely won't be involved that much in the passing game. That's the downside here. JD. McKissick and Ty Johnson are both capable pass catchers, but Scarborough could easily lead the team in early down work and he's likely to be the goal line guy moving forward, so there's some value there. Hold Jameis Winston. When you watch Jameis Winston play football, you cringe, and if you have Jameis Winston on your fantasy team, you cringe even more. It's hard to watch Jameis Winston sometimes, but even with his four interceptions on Sunday, he still scored almost fifteen standard Fantasy points. He was still a rock solid QB two and really since Week two he's been really good. He's averaging nineteen points six fantasy points per game and he hasn't had fewer than twelve fantasy points in a single contest. Like I said, it's tough to watch Jamis Winston. But this is a great example of how fantasy football doesn't always equate to reality. It's why it's fantasy football. We can't let that overshadow the type of value that Jamis Winston is in fantasy football. And that's especially true because Tampa Bay has some good matchups to close out this season, and that includes two games in week fifteen and sixteen, the Fantasy Football playoffs against Detroit and Houston. Those are two of the top eight most favorable matchups for opposing quarterbacks when adjusted for strength of opponent sell Josh Allen so similar to Jameis Winston. You can make the case that watching Josh Allen is not the prettiest thing in the world, but he gets it done in fantasy football, mostly because of what he can do with his legs. He's averaging thirty three rushing yards per game in point seven rushing touchdowns per game. But you guys might remember, but all the way back in Week six, I was talking about this Bill's passing attack being a by candidate because the upcoming schedule was amazing. From then until now, they've faced Miami, Philadelphia, Washington, Cleveland, and the Miami again. Each of those teams were top half of the league matchups for opposing quarterbacks when adjusted for strength of schedule heading into Week eleven, but things get pretty rough for the Bills moving forward. They get Denver this week, who has held opposing quarterbacks to four point three fewer points per game compared to their season long averages. And then they get Dallas, who have allowed one point nine fewer points. Then Baltimore three point five fewer points than Pittsburgh two point five fewer points, and then New England's seven point two fewer points. It's the toughest stretch that you can find for a quarterback across the NFL. I do think that Josh Allen can be fine given his rushing floor, but don't expect him to perform as he has over the last five or so weeks. Add Nahim Heinz, Jonathan Williams, and Jordan Wilkins. This might be the longest transaction in fifteen transactions history. But Marlin Mack fractured his hand on Sunday and now he's out indefinitely. That means you've got to add someone in this Colts backfield. It's just really hard to predict who you should add, so let's just talk this out. I think the Nahim Hines is the safest player to get in PPR formats because we know he's a great pass catching back, we know he's gonna have some sort of role in this offense. But then he has the upside of potentially seeing a little bit more early down work. Keep in mind, without Marlon Mack for four games last year, Nahim Hines actually carried forty three percent of the Colts running back rushes. On Sunday, after Marlon Mack was hurt, Max' running back rush share was twenty three percent. Now that's not very high, but going into this week it was under ten percent, So there should be some boost for Nahim Hines on the ground. And then there's Jonathan Williams and Jordan Wilkins. Williams saw forty three percent of the Colts backfield touches in Week eleven, but Wilkins was also inactive due to an ankle injury. Jordan Wilkins has been the number three option for Indianapolis this year. Really, he's been the handcuff for Marlon Mack, the hypothetical handcuff. So I think we should expect a healthy Jordan Wilkins to see the most early down work. But here's the thing. Reports are saying right now that Jordan Wilkins should be healthy for Thursday night's game, but we don't know for sure. And then on top of that, what if Jonathan Williams just played into more work because he looked good on Sunday and he ran for one hundred and sixteen yards on just thirteen carries. So it's a messy, messy situation. But like I said in PPR formats, I would be prioritizing nahem Heinz because I do think he has a nice floor ceiling combo, and then I would spend a little bit less and take a shot on Williams or Wilkins. Sell Kaylan Bilage. This is one of the easiest sells of all time because Caylen Bilage has been pathetic running the football this year. And I rarely say words like pathetic, like this guy has been that bad, but he's been that bad. His peripheral numbers are completely fine. Over the last two weeks. He's seen a seventy six percent in an eighty two percent snapshare, and he's seen eighty six percent of the team's running back rushes and thirteen percent of the team's targets. Those are really good numbers. Those are great peripheral numbers. But right now, as it's Bilage is pacing to be the first running back in NFL history to have sixty or more rushes while having a yards per carry rate below two. That's how bad Kaylen Blage has been. And not only that, even with this usage over the last two weeks, without both Kenyan Drake and Mark Walton, it's not like Kaylin Bilage has been super Fantasy relevant. And that includes a touchdown this past week, he's still averaging just ten point six PPR points per game. I just would worry moving forward that they get some of these other running backs involved in that offense by Odell Beckham. So last week I talked about Odell Beckham as being a buy or a hold, but one of his two games against Pittsburgh is now in the rear view. So now he's a little bit more of a buye. And if you saw a Thursday Night's game, then you watched OBJ barely miss a touchdown. He was down on the inch yard line. Now, the rest of his game wasn't anything special, but he still saw ten targets. He accounted for thirty four percent of Cleveland's targets. He now has over a twenty seven percent target share on the season. I'll buy that all day long for a ten tallented wide receiver. And the Browns are about to hit the softest stretch of their schedule. They get a plus matchup against Miami this week, and then in two of their next three after that, they get Cincinnati and Arizona. So I think Beckham's high target share should allow him to be competitive in those matchups. Ad Dallas Goddard, I know, I promise that I wouldn't talk about Dallas Goddard anymore, but his rostered rate on Yahoo is not getting any higher. It's still only at nineteen percent. There are twenty three tight ends that are rostered at a higher rate, but since Week six, only eleven tight ends have averaged more PPR points per game than Dallas Goddard. And if you only look at tight ends who have played four or more games during that stretch, Goddard's a top ten tight end. He's now seen at least ten percent of Philadelphia's targets in every game played since Week four, and his snap rate hit a season high in Week eleven at eighty one point three percent. With all the injuries to Eagles wide receivers, Goddard's become a weekly option at a really pitiful position. He should be rostered in well over half of leagues now, PA he's at him. I'm tilting sell Tarik Cohen. Sunday night mark Tarik Cohen's best Fantasy performance of the season. It was actually the first time that he hit fifteen PPR points in a single game. He played about sixty percent of the team snaps, which was his highest rate since Week one, and his thirty nine point one percent running back rush share was the second highest that it's been all season. Maybe you're thinking this is a sign of things to come, but I think there are plenty of reasons to want to move on from Tarik Cohen and not have to rely on him moving forward. Remember, David Montgomery was banged up in Week eleven. He failed to reach a fifty percent snap share for the first time since Week seven, So you would think, as David Montgomery heels, that not number is only going to rise. And Tarik Cohen's now scored in back to back games as a receiver. That's despite the fact that he only has fifty eight receiving yards in those contests. Now, over the last five seasons, running backs have typically scored through the air on every two hundred and three receiving yards, meaning Tarik Cohen is over performing there and that's in a bad offense. So this is not a time to buy Tarik Cohen. The offense is struggling and he's unlikely to keep up this current pace by the Baltimore Ravens defense. So there's a mailback episode a couple of weeks ago where I talked about the Ravens defense having a very favorable schedule during the Fantasy football playoffs, and since then, the Ravens defense itself has continued to dominate. It started a trend since they got Marcus Peters. They've played four games. In those games, they're averaging seventeen and a half fantasy points per game. They haven't finished outside the top five and weekly scoring with Marcus Peters. Before Peters, they were averaging four point three fantasy points per game. And then again, look at the fantasy football playoffs, they get the Bills, the Jets, and the Browns in weeks fourteen through sixteen. I think Baltimore is going to be the defense that helps people win leagues. Add Sam Darnold, it's been two straight good games for Sam Donald, so we can finally have a little bit more comfid and it's playing him and he gets another beatable defense in Week twelve, making him a good streaming choice. The Jets are hosting the Raiders and they're three and a half point home underdogs. Quarterbacks against Oakland have found success this year. They've averaged over twenty points per game against the Raiders, when those same quarterbacks have averaged about seventeen points per game throughout the rest of the season. So, in other words, quarterbacks against the Raiders have seen a bump of more than three fantasy points per game this year, which is one of the bigger markups in the league. So I think Sam Donald is fine as a streaming option in Week twelve. Ad Ryan Griffin, Sam Donald's teammate. Ryan Griffin, isn't that bad of a tight end streamer. He had a great Week eleven. He had seventeen point nine percent of the Jets targets and he ended up with one hundred and nine receiving yards in a touchdown. He's now seen fourteen percent or more of New York's targets in three of his last four games, and it's really not that fluky because over this time he ranks ninth among all tight ends and routes run according to Pro Football Focus. So give him that matchup that I just talked about against the Raiders. I think Yan Griffin is not a bad tight end streamer. Add the Detroit Lions defense. The Lions get Washington this week, and even though they're not playing in Detroit, they're playing on the road. It's still a good matchup because Dwayne Haskins has not been very good in his two starts. He's taken ten total sacks and he's fumbled twice. Washington quarterbacks have now been sacked at the fourth highest rate in football, and that should help a team like Detroit because they rank seventh worst in pressure rate according to FanDuel Sportsbook. The game has a pretty low forty one and a half point over under. So I do think that Detroit should give you some sort of a floor this week. They won't sink your team. Now, the sixteenth transaction this week that you can't get my weekly fifteen transactions call him over on number fire dot com is to add David and Joku. I don't think this is necessarily a priority ad because he's still not activated at the time of this recording, and he's not listened to as day to day, so apparently he's still not fully healthy, and we might not feel confident just throwing him into our lineups right away, but you can stash a tight end if you need a tight end. He's not a bad ad for similar reasons that I talked through with OBJ. The Browns have some plus matchups and one of those matchups is against the Cardinals in week fifteen, and we know how bad Arizona's been against tight ends this year, so in Djoko's a deeper ad, but he's one who could help you in the fantasy football playoffs. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got to subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. Be in your ears tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show.