828: Week 9 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Lady Podcast with your host JAJ zacher Retha, j J Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyson in this episode eight hundred and twenty eight of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Last week's Sleeper Show had some good parts and some bad parts. Derek Carr was a respectable streamer, and I called out Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson, and Taysom Hill, who were all really strong plays. And I briefly talked about Rashid Shaheed too, but a lot of the wide receivers and running backs were just pretty average at best overall, whether we're talking about Devin Singletary, Amar de Mercado or Juwan Jennings who gave us a goose egg. There was some good from week eight, but I definitely want to be better than that. Hopefully things do look better here in week nine. I can't talk about Derek Carr this week because he's now officially over the fifty percent rostered mark over on Yahoo, so he doesn't fit in this bucket of players who are rostered in ten to fifty percent of leagues who you might be able to play. I do have a few quarterback streamers for you, though, one of them is Gardner Minshew. Minshew gets the Panthers. Carolina has actually been a below average opponent for quarterbacks this season. They rank is the twenty third best opponent and adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position, so it's not like some ideal matchup. A lot of that has to do with the fact that teams are running the ball so much against the Panthers. Carolina has actually allowed the most offensive touchdowns in football, but fewer than forty two percent of those touchdowns have come through the air. That's the third lowest rate in the league. They're last in rushing yards over expected allowed per rush, and they're middle of the road and passing EPA per drop back allowed. So I do think there's some risk that Indianapolis just runs all day against Carolina. I also think there's a possibility that when Indie scores variants takes over little bit those touchdowns come from Minshew's arm. That's always a possibility in a one game sample. I think there's risk involved with any of these streamers. Indianapolis, though, has the seventh best implied team total on this week Slate. According to Fandals Sportsbook, Minshew's not a terrible bet in that same game too, as Bryce Young. I like Minshew more than Young, but I do think that Young works. The Colts defense is not very good. They've given up the third most offensive touchdowns this year, and like Carolina, a lot of those touchdowns have come via the ground. I think both teams are ready to regress in that category. But Indy ranks is the second best matchup for quarterbacks and adjustin fantasy points allowed, and Bryce Young is starting to look the part a little bit more. After scoring nine point four points per game over his first three, he's averaged fifteen point two over his last three and Colts games. For the record, these Indianapolis games this year, they've been shooting out. According to my buddy Rich Reebar from Sharp Football Analysis at Lord Reeves on Twitter, Colts games are averaging a league high one hundred and thirty six point six combined snaps per game. They're averaging a combined fifty four point three points per game that's the second highest in the league behind only Miami. Basically, don't sleep on the quarterbacks in this matchup, and you could also look at Baker Mayfield if you want. I'm not super high on him, but he does work. Mayfield gets Houston and the Bucks have just an eighteen and a half point imply team total. That's not great. Houston thows the twelfth best matchup by justin Fantasy points allowed, and they've been below average against the pass according to EPA per dropback, So I think Mayfield's fine enough among a pretty bad quarterback landscape. Now moving on to running back. Everyone's understandably excited about Gus Edwards after the last couple of weeks in how he's performed, but Justice Hill just last week played twenty six offensive snaps. Gus Edwards was at four. Baltimore's just playing in these super positive game scripts and that's always gonna favor a guy like Gus Edwards. But Justice Hill had a fifteen point four percent target share last week. Over the last two games, his route participation has been around fifty six percent, Gus Edwards thirty percent. Now they get Seattle in Week nine. Not only is there a chance that we see a closer game here for Baltimore and that might favor Hill a little bit more than what we've seen over the last two weeks, but Seattle ranks fifth and adjusted target share allowed to running backs, meaning teams are throwing the ball to their running backs at a higher rate when they face Seattle. So off the waiver wire, there are definitely worse choices, and then one more running back from you. In this tier, it's a repeat of last week. It's Devin Singletary. We Gate featured a Houston offense that really just couldn't get anything going. But Singletary's peripherals weren't bad. He saw forty percent running back rush share that was his second highest of the season, and his eight point three percent target share tie to season high. They're still splitting this backfield. There's still a committee, and I think that's the expectation moving forward. But Singletary has looked at as a far inferior fantasy asset compared to Damian Pierce. I don't agree with that. Singletary is getting more passing game work. Pierce is the goal line guy. That's what it looks like right now. I'd almost rather take on Singletary's role as a fantasy manager than Damian Pierce's if this continues now, It's not a great matchup, but very few waiver wire running backs are seeing volume right now. And for the record, Damian Pierce missed practice on Wednesday, so keep an eye on that. Well, let's roll with Singletary here once again, now shifting our focus to wide receiver. You could go back to Rashid Shaheed, but know that he's a volatile, big play receiver. Shiheed hasn't even hit a twenty percent target shair in a single game this season, and despite his huge performance last week, his snapshare only twenty seven percent his use and that offense actually dropped this past week from what we were used to seeing throughout the season. Now, hopefully that turns around given his performance and he gets the Bears this week, a team that's ranked as a top half opponent this year in completion rate allowed on fifteen plus air yard throws. So maybe Shaheed has some more big plays in him. Elijah Moore is now under the fifty percent rostered mark, and it's understandable as to why he hasn't been producing. He scored double digit PPR points just once this season, and that's despite the fact that his route participation is well into the eighties and lower nineties. Now I'm intrigued by him this week because He's played over half of his snaps this year from the slot, and Cleveland gets Arizona. The Cardinals ring fifth this season and target share allowed to the slot and their third and slotyards allowed, so more might have a spiked week for him at least now. Tank Dell was a bus last week and he's now gone three straight games without a double digit PPR. Game could change here In Week nine. The Texans get a Bucks team that's allowed the tenth most adjusted Fantasy points to wide receivers, and last week Dell saw a seventeen percent target share and had the best route participation of his season. You gotta hope the Texans can just move the ball a little bit better than they did last week. If they do, Dell's gonna be fine. Brandon Cooks has scored in back to back games, and while I'm definitely not projecting that to happen in Week nine, he's had okay enough usage over this two game stretch. The Cowboys get the Eagles this week, and Philadelphia's secondary has allowed the second most adjusted points to wide receivers this year. Dallas also has a bottom ten pass rate on the season, but the Eagles have faced the highest pass rate in the second highest neutral script pass rate. Now that's partially due to game script, but they've also been great against the run and just average to above average against the pass. That's when looking at EPA per drop back aloud. So the Cowboys should throw the ball a little bit more in this matchup and that's gonna benefit someone like Brandon Cooks. And then the last wide receiver in this tier, Jaden Reid. Reid ran the most routes for Green Bay in Week eight. He ended up with a season in career high eighty three receiving yards. That was on a route participation of eighty nine percent, by far a season high. If that continues, given his talent profile, he could be a decent enough flex Just kidding, there's one more wide receiver to Mario Douglas. Kendrick Bourne is out for the season because he tore his ACL and like I said in the ten Trends episode, Douglas ended last week with his best usage of the season. He had a twenty five percent target share and he ran a route on eighty four percent of his team's dropbacks. This week, he gets Washington. They just lost some defensive pieces and they were already the best matchup for wide receivers and ad justin fantasy points allowed, So to Mario Douglas makes a ton of sense. Now at tight end, I'll keep this one short. Trey McBride. He saw the highest target share that any tight end is seen in a single game this year back in Week eight, and that target share came one game after zach Ertz was put on ir Now, I will say the Browns, who he's facing this week, it's the toughest matchup on paper for a tight end, but that volume is going to go a very long way. And then I know you're probably sick of me recommending the mediocre Luke Musgrave and look, I'm not expecting the world, but his spot against the Rams is great. Only Cincinnati has been a better matchup for tight ends this year, and the Packers are using Muskgrave as their primary pass catcher a tight end. He saw a dip and target share this past week. It was seven point five percent, but he was still running routes at a similar rate as his previous two games, and in those games he saw target shares of twenty four percent and fifteen percent. In this matchup. He's totally fine as a streamer. This next year of players consist of guys who are rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues, and I gotta be honest, it's rough out there this week for this tier. That's what happens when there's so many buys at quarterback. Zach Wilson and PJ. Walker they have the matchups, but they've been brutal as fantasy assets this year. Taylor Heineke might be intriguing, but Minnesota's defense his opponent this week. They've been a lot better of late. And good luck finding sub ten percent roster running backs who are gonna see more than like five touches. They just don't exist. Maybe Pierre Strong, he's a possibility, but it sounds like Jerome Ford is feeling better about his ankle. All of this is to say that I'm not going to force things here. You can go with some of the guys that I just mentioned, but I'm not mentioning them with that much conviction. Let's instead just shift our focus to wide receiver. Jonathan Mingo is roster in about seven percent of Yahoo leagues, and honestly, that number should probably be higher. His snap shares over his last three games have been eighty six percent, ninety three percent, and ninety eight and a half percent. His route participation has been right in line with those snap rates. He's coming off game where we had a sixteen percent target share, catching four or five targets for sixty two yards, and now he gets a Colts team that's only been involved in shootouts this year, like I talked about earlier, but they've been a top ten opponent for wide receivers and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. So I think Mingo is very interesting. If you're in a moderately deep league, you might want a roster him. Now, the other sub ten percent wide receiver that I want to talk about today is a guy that I mentioned in the fifteen Transactions episode. It's Khalil Shakir. Shaki watches target share rise from ten percent in week seven to fifteen percent in week eight, and his snap share shot up to sixty five percent. This is all coming with the team not having Dawson Knox so likely to use a little bit more eleven personnel, more three wide sets. Now, Shakira has played seventy five percent of his snaps this year from the slot, and I would assume that continues. Buffalo gets Cincinnati and the Bengals have been a below average opponent for slot guys this year, but the usage and the offense that he's involved with could still make Shakir viable, even if I do think that it's a Dalton Kinkaid week. And speaking of tight ends, speaking of Dalton Kincaid, I can't recommend him on this podcast because he's rostered in far too many leagues. Now, a player I can recommend is Kate Aughton. He's had back to back games with six targets and he has elite route participation. According to fantasylife dot Com. On the season, Atton is fifth in tight end route participation. He's competing with legit players like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Yes, but get this, Houston ranks first an adjusted tight end targets share allowed. Teams are targeting their tight ends against Houston at a much higher rate than their average, and then on top of that, they're the eighth best matchup for tight ends and adjusted Fantasy points allowed. So it could be an OK week for Kate Otton. Now, as for the defensive streamers, I talked about Atlanta on the fifteen Transactions episode, and they work against the Vikings and Jaren Hall. There's also the Chargers against the Jets. They're a top ten opponent for defenses and adjusted fantasy points allowed. And there's New England against Washington. Washington has been an awesome opponent for defenses, ranking second and adjusted fantasy points allowed. And then you could realistically use both the Giants and the Raiders in that same game. That game profiles to be a low scoring game with a thirty seven and a half point over under according to fandals Sportsbook, and both the Giants and the Raiders their top six opponents for defenses and adjusted fantasy points allowed. That's it for today's show, though thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found. Angel to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening, everyone greatly appreciated. As always, I'll talk to you tomorrow.