746: Mailbag 3/10/23

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacheras j J. Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode seven hundred and forty six of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thank you for tuning in. This is your final reminder about pre ordering the Late Round Prospect Guide. It drops on Monday, and when it drops, that price is going to rise to fourteen ninety nine. Right now, it's eleven ninety nine. The guide is one hundred and thirty plus pages long and includes information about what goes into my prospect models. There are profiles of every running back and wide receiver who are at this year's combine, and you get scores for all those players too. Once the NFL Draft is over, you'll get an updated guide to your email with new profiles and updated scores. There's also an entire section dedicated to my Year two model. The Year two model looks at second year players in the NFL to determine how well they're going to perform in year two and year three, so you'll know what to do In dynasty with guys like Johann Dotson or Tyler Aljeir head to lateround dot com and pre order right now before it launches on March thirteenth. The first question this week is from twitters from at jswan Underscore NYI. It says you recently posted excellent weight data for running backs, noting two hundred and ten is a good cutoff. How does your model compensate for changes in the game and how players are valued. Eg. Increased importance of running back catches, prioritizing agility over weight, greater emphasis on draft capital. So I want to be clear about something that cutoff that I use when talking about Jamiir Gibbs on Tuesday's show, or what I tweeted earlier this week that was just in reference to Gibbs and the other smaller running backs in this year's class. My model does not look at Jamir Gibbs and say you're not two hundred and ten pounds, you're out. In fact, BMI is the weight input in the model, so technically Gibbs isn't getting dinged at all. Generally speaking, draft capital is going to reflect all of this. A back who's less than two hundred pounds like Gibbs usually doesn't get drafted early. Since twenty eleven, the only running backs to come in under two hundred pounds and get drafted in the top sixty four were Isaiah Pede, Michael James, and James Cook. So Gibbs is unique for that reason alone. He still looks really good in my model, though he's got a shot to be over the ninety fifth percentile, which is the mark that elite running backs tend to hit. It's just that when I'm analyzing these prospects, I'm pointing out red flags that they might have to their profile, and for Gibbs, even when you expand that weight profile by ten whole pounds, the hit rates for those running backs have historically not been very good. It doesn't mean I'm fading him or I don't like him. I'm not saying that's what you're saying here or anything. But I do think that when I tweet things like that out or when I say things like that on this podcast, the assumption is that I'm fading that player. That's why I threw the caveat out there that he's still my RB two. There's just concern to his profile, and I'd argue that concern is a bigger concern than something like a slightly below average touchdown share. Now, the focus of your question is on how the model adjusts for the game changing with these running backs who are smaller becoming more and more fantasy relevant, or at least being used more and more at the NFL level. And honestly, this same question gets asked every single year, and every year we're not seeing smaller running backs take over fantasy football. It's just not happening. Just look at recent history. Over the last three years, we've had fifty one instances where running back average fourteen or more PPR points per game with a minimum eight games played, So seventeen running backs per year on average are getting to fourteen or more PPR points per game. Obviously, we're gonna have some repeats here, and we do. Only twenty eight of those running backs are unique, So we have twenty eight unique running backs who have scored fourteen or more PPRS points per game over the last three seasons. Twenty three of the twenty eight backs were two hundred and ten plus pounds. The five who weren't were Aaron Jones who was two hundred and eight, Miles Gaskin who was replaced as starter, Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, who was replaced as starter, and Austin Eckler. My prospect model loved Aaron Jones and Christian McCaffrey because they were insanely productive in college. McCaffrey's one of the best running backs in the model, and Aaron Jones has the highest draft capital delta of any running back in the model's history, meaning it viewed Aaron Jones as the most underrated running back versus draft capital. And then Austin Eckler is just not in the model because he didn't go to the NFL combined and he wasn't drafted, So obviously, I don't think the model needs fixing, and for the record, I test things every single year. But the bottom line is that good running backs will show up, and Gibbs is a good running back. He still looks good in the model. But even when you adjust for the fact that there are just few we're small backs entering the league, they still aren't providing a stealing in fantasy football at the same rate as bigger backs are. The ratio still favors the two hundred and ten plus pound backs, and a lot of people wouldn't even consider that big two hundred and ten pounds is not necessarily massive, but generally speaking, that's where we see fantasy production come from. The beast question is from Patreon. It's from Josh. It says, thanks for all the amazing work as an owner of the one h two. In a standard league, you're scaring me with your Gibbs info. What teams are a perfect fit for him? That might make you a little bit more comfortable. I think Gibbs is much much more attractive in PPR than Standard. His bread and butter is receiving, and while receiving does matter in standard, targets are worth more than attempts. Even in a standard league, it's going to be easier for him to be a difference maker in a PPR format. And that's the assumption that I work under with these prospects that you're playing in a PPR league. Now, with that being said, I think a pass catching back Gibbs can pretty much work anywhere. A place like Miami would be great. I will say that I hope a place with a mobile quarterback is not his destination because mobile quarterbacks generally limit receiving upside for running backs. That's what I talked about on episode five and ten about a year and a half ago, so you want him to avoid a spot with a mobile quarterback. But honestly, I'd be more concerned about the format that you're playing in. People think PPR matters more at wide receiver, but it matters more at running back, at least within the position. When you're talking flex, it's a little bit different because at running back you can see larger differences in receptions from player to player. That delta is larger, and Gibbs is not my one o two right now. I have him at one oh three in single quarterback leagues my one oh two Jackson Smith and Jigba. This next question is from at PE nine point eight Sammy. It says, what are your thoughts in the same skill players after the Derek Carr deal? Does this give them a boost in Dynasty? My reaction to the deal was that it at least gives them some stability at quarterback in the short term. Now that stability is not Aaron Rodgers, but it's not this up in the air situation that they were in before. Carr hasn't been the most aggressive down the field thrower throughout his career, and that's somewhat of a concern. With players on that Saints team who can stretch the field, but he's gotten better at pushing at the last few seasons. Last year, with DeVante Adams in the mix, to open up that offense a bit, he threw at fifteen or more air yards at a twenty point three percent rate that was the sixth highest in the NFL among quarterbacks with three hundred or more attempts. He's also been okay enough accuracy wise on those throws. The league average completion percentage on those fifteen plus airyard throws last year was about forty three percent. He was a little over forty percent, and he's been above forty percent in each of his last five seasons, sometimes well well above forty percent. And look, guys, the alternative here is Andy Dalton. Dalton's completion percentage on those fifteen plus airyard throws has been below forty percent in each of his last three seasons, and he's pushed it fifteen plus air yards at a below average rate. Two. So this is a bump for everyone. It's not as big of a bump as it could have been, but you should feel better about Saints offensive players with Derek Carr this that's question is from at Alpha Pisces. It says, how would you approach Deontay Johnson? Is he a good bet to produce more efficiently going forward? I think Johnson is probably more of a buye than a cell right now. He's a good player, a very good player. Over the last two seasons, there have been five wide receivers who were able to hit a target chair per game rate above twenty seven percent in both seasons. So they were at twenty seven percent in twenty twenty one and in twenty twenty two. DeVante Adams is won Cooper Cup is another, so is DJ Moore and Justin Jefferson, as is Deontay Johnson. As long as he's healthy, he's going to see favorable regression in the touchdown column. And the Steelers were a whole lot better offensively during the second half of the season last year than the first half, and we saw both Johnson and George Pickens get an uptick in yards per route run as a result. I know people like to talk down about Deontay because he hasn't been the most efficient wide receiver in the world, but he gobbles up targets. That's a talent thing you don't see that much work while being a below average or an average wide receiver, and he's now done this with multiple quarterbacks. You guys, we want to buy good players in Dynasty, and I think that Deontay Johnson is a good player. The last question this week is from at t Van fifteen. It says, can you share your thoughts on Jamison Williams for next year and going forward? So the hard part about Jamison Williams is that we haven't really seen this type of situation work out in recent history. My year two model looks at a player's prospect score, some inputs from their rookie season, and tries to predict how well that player is going to do in year two or year three. Clearly, because Williams didn't play that much last year, his year two score doesn't look very good. But then I say back, and I thought about this, and it kind of makes sense as the why it wasn't good, as the why that number doesn't look very favorable. Let me read you the first round picksins twenty eleven who played single digit games in year one. John Ross, Josh Dockson, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, aj Jenkins, Lakwan Treadwell and Jamison Williams. None of them got going after they didn't play that much as rookies. I'm not saying all of their situations are the same. I'm not saying Jamison Williams is a bust, but it does put a little bit of fear in your mind. I also have this from williams profile in this year's Prospect Guide. It's in the Year two Model section of the guide. It says, with that being said, I've got to at least state what the numbers say. Among the forty nine year two model wide receivers in the seventieth to eightieth percentile, only two were able to give us a season in year two or year three with ten or more PPR points per game. Now, fortunately one of those players was Mike Williams, who dealt with some injury issues of his own to start his career. But just based on what we've seen in that alone, Williams is a little bit scary. Jamison Williams that is. And I know that you can point to Travis Etn last year and say that if you took a conservative approach with him, you were burned. But running back is different than wide receiver. The year two model is looking at projecting year two and year three. If it takes longer for wide receivers to get actlimited to the NFL level, then it would make sense that the year two score for a wide receiver is more meaningful than what we saw with Travis Etn. Now, this whole entire take could burn me, but I think Williams is not someone I'm going to aggressively be going after this offseason. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's great. He was a ninety fifth percentile prospect in my prospect model, and that's where great prospects land. I think overall, though, given his journey, I just think he's a hold. I don't think he's this aggressive buye. We may not be able to see you right now, but there is risk to his profile overall. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't fret to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB, remembering to check out lateround dot com. Pre order the prospect guy because it does drop on Monday. Enjoy your weekend everyone, I'll talk to you next week.