NFL Week 13 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

00:00:05
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're ready for some post Thanksgiving winners. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesley podcast studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland for.

00:00:16
Speaker 2: A special holiday edition of our Picks.

00:00:21
Speaker 1: That was the Colleen Wolf voice. We used to call this man versus model. It was your computer model. You're the busiest woman.

00:00:28
Speaker 3: Not even this week. No, it's we all weird schedule, so we have to it's the most fun week of the year. I just do a lot of extra cooking, which makes things very great.

00:00:38
Speaker 1: Yes, but you're you know you're on the game day morning, on Thanksgiving morning. We're putting this up on Thanksgiving morning. We had game debut. We have all of our preview shows, so please check that all out. And when I say we're looking for post Thanksgiving winners, the reason I said that, Cynthia, is because for this show, we decided, look, this is going up pretty close to those games. Let's pick the games after Thanksgiving. We picked three games every week against the spread. Last week I kept my winning streak going and I finished two and one, so eighth straight week that I've had a winning record on this show. You got back on the winning track. So that is good to hear. Unfortunately, like, why are you shaking your head?

00:01:23
Speaker 3: Oh no, I've just got a long way to go. You know, I got a long way to go.

00:01:26
Speaker 1: Okay, we'll do it then by picking some winners here, Yeah, you are up. Let's go first, give me the rams, the rams to cover. Okay, that was one of the ones I was thinking about. So I like that La r.

00:01:39
Speaker 3: Versus car It's at Carolina. It's ten and a half points. That's the last I saw. I don't even care if you can bid that all the way up to thirteen. I think they win. I think they win going away. This is the best team in football right now against a team that you know, they looked. It was a very bad game that San Francisco. I mean just a It was a tough, tough hang, yeah, tough hang for that one. So I'm looking at that game and Carolina caused some turnovers, we saw some weirds. I don't think against Matthew Stafford and this offense and that defense is not gonna look the same. So it might be boring, but for different reasons.

00:02:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that could be like a three score game very easily. Carolina's defense if you're gonna beat the Rams, you have to get some pressure on Matthew Stafford.

00:02:25
Speaker 3: Like a lot of pressure on Matthew Stafford.

00:02:26
Speaker 1: They don't get any pressure. Their linebackers struggling. I think it could be bad against this tight end group. And ultimately I don't think. I don't find the Carolina Panthers frisky like that serious. That's serious of a football ti, at least as a playoff. I think it was a beautiful.

00:02:42
Speaker 3: Punt the Family Weekend. You need a pun.

00:02:44
Speaker 1: Okay, So you pointed out the Rams that that was one of the ones I was thinking about. Okay, they were in a category I like a lot of games this week, you do, I do? Okay, there was a category of games, and I wanted to mix it up between the categories. So I was gonna pick one, and I was like, okay, I'll I won't pick the one Cynthia's picking. That's how many games I like in this category? Was you know, I'm really good and you did not give like enough points like you could. You could give thirteen points like you said, and it wouldn't be enough.

00:03:15
Speaker 2: I would still take the Rams.

00:03:17
Speaker 1: And so here's the category of teams I would throw in that mix this week.

00:03:20
Speaker 2: I'm only gonna take one of them. The Broncos.

00:03:22
Speaker 1: I mean they're only getting six points against that Commanders team. I'd be fine with that. The Seahawks. They're only getting ten and a half points against Max Brosmer and the Vikings. I think that could be one and you're free to take one of those, because I'm not this is a category of games.

00:03:37
Speaker 2: The Rams would be in that mix.

00:03:38
Speaker 1: But of that group of like the heavy favorites, who I still think it's not enough.

00:03:43
Speaker 2: Give me the Los Angeles Chargers.

00:03:45
Speaker 1: Minus ten this week against the I don't want to be around here anymore. Raiders offense and team, and I know they fired Chip Kelly and maybe they get a little fired coach bounced.

00:03:56
Speaker 2: It's somehow better with Greg Olsen.

00:03:58
Speaker 1: But I think the Chargers coming off of By, they've been a different team, especially on defense at home. We saw this Chargers Raiders matchups earlier in the year. The Raiders offense had nothing going on in that game. I have no reason to believe that that offensive line can stop Tully and Khalil Mack in a daf AOA and everything going on with the Chargers defense.

00:04:18
Speaker 3: Pretty sure Omari and Hampton will be back in this one too, which you know that's that's a plus. I'm with you on the entire analysis. I'm with you if the price were bid up to even more points as a differential between the two, I don't think that the coach bump that would potentially happen here is gonna. I don't know if O lines get the coach, but I don't know if they get the memo on that. Maybe some skill players do, but like I think the O line and as good as we've seen Ashton gent TV in general, because you'd have to run against the chargers to have some sort of, you know, answer to that pressure that you're talking about. He gets hit behind the line of scrimmage on pretty much all of his yards. If the amount of yards he's actually run for versus the ones that have kind of as positive, it's massive.

00:05:01
Speaker 1: So it's it's just yeah, and he's not in the offensive line. Coach is Pete Carroll's son, so you're not getting the bump and you're not firing your son. We talked a bit a little bit about this on the previous that's the right move. I do feel bad and you cannot fire your son.

00:05:16
Speaker 2: You have a whole round.

00:05:17
Speaker 1: Not firing my son. I'm saying if Pete Carroll right got it. It was some neo baby stuff, not probably the right hire. But ultimately you got to go down as a family. And I'm gonna go up picking against the Raiders maybe every week. They are one of the worst NFL teams I've ever seen. I actually was surprised this number was so low. So that's the team I'll pick out of that category of games. That's my first pick.

00:05:41
Speaker 2: All right.

00:05:41
Speaker 3: I'm not even get started on their draft class because if you look at oh not good anyways.

00:05:46
Speaker 2: All right, you can go and you could pick from that category.

00:05:48
Speaker 3: I'm pick from that cat.

00:05:49
Speaker 2: Oh you are. I saw your eyes light up.

00:05:51
Speaker 3: I became prepared because I got real serious this week.

00:05:56
Speaker 2: Okay, you know I really had a winning week last week.

00:05:58
Speaker 3: You want to I got to build on my wins, right, So Denver, you talked about that, Yeah, so okay, yeah, I'm sure you're gonna give me a little bit of bait. I'm going to take it six points, all right. So number one, Denver's defense. You know, everyone we watched Houston's defense in the Big Time spotlight against the Bills. Denver's defense like, excuse me, do you not remember what we did to Patrick Mahomes. I have an issue to raise you, right, So I'm looking at that and saying and then look like, I love dan Quinn. He's a really nice man. I don't think his defense can has enough even if they kind of get it all together to stop even though maybe it's just the fourth quarter for Bonix, that's maybe all he needs. But I think this is where Bonix takes this step and kind of turns this corner of like only the screen pass, dude. I think he goes now and takes a step forward. This is a defense to do it against. Just watch what the Lions did to this secondary before. They don't have a lot of answers for you know, even any downfield past.

00:07:04
Speaker 1: So I hope the listeners saw that and the viewers. Cynthia Frielan hit poor dan Quinn with he's a nice man.

00:07:13
Speaker 3: He is so nice.

00:07:14
Speaker 1: But that's when that happens. You're in trouble when Cynthia hits you with it. He's a nice man. Things aren't going well. You were feeling bad for Pete Carroll, You're I would love to run some analytics on how often a guy who you say is a nice man or you feel bad for covers the number. I bet it's very low, and I'm with you. That line was weird. It did feel like bait. Why was the Broncos only six points? I know it's there on the road and everything, but it's supposed to be Mario to this week. It's that defense of the Commanders. I think the Broncos offense, by the way, might be turning in a corner. They played pretty well in that game against I think they're going to be good the.

00:07:55
Speaker 2: Rest of the way.

00:07:55
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm going to go to what's my favorite pick. It's a Texans. They're getting four and a half points in Indianapolis, and I think they're gonna win straight up.

00:08:07
Speaker 2: And I don't feel.

00:08:09
Speaker 1: Incredibly confident about them winning straight up, but I do feel great about them getting four and a half points a weird number. I think it's a defensive game, and I do get that. The underlying numbers and maybe your model reflects that somewhat. I don't really know, are really positive on the Colts offense, but they're also really positive on the Texans defense. Overall, it is a transcendent defense. And I do think getting CJ. Stroud is going to really help this offense out. As we're taping, it's not official, but he is expected to come back. And the thing that's really impressed me about the Texans lately with Davis Mills has not been Mills in the passing game well, that is always impressive, and he has gotten me.

00:08:53
Speaker 2: Their running game has been better. It's been a pretty good running game.

00:08:55
Speaker 1: With Woodie Marx on our show game debut, I've been on a little bit of a there we have write this down with player property.

00:09:02
Speaker 3: Year great streak.

00:09:03
Speaker 1: What he marks over fifty five and a half rushing yards, that's a little extra for this show bonus. I like he's been running great and I think they've got some cohesion running the ball front and the Colts on their defensive line, they're not the same without the Forest Buckner.

00:09:15
Speaker 2: So man, I think this Texan season is turning around. I really do.

00:09:20
Speaker 3: I think the four and a half is good. Do I think they win straight up? Probably not, but I I don't feel great about that. That's that's what the models. My model does have four and a half points. I have a three point win for Indianapolis. But it's more like a few point six points, which people hate fractional points, but whatever, I.

00:09:35
Speaker 1: Like it because it's closer to my side two point six saying you're covering that number best too.

00:09:40
Speaker 2: That's all we need on this show for.

00:09:41
Speaker 3: Melly, And I think I'm looking at Houston, and remember this is they have two matchups left with the Colts, so Houston still has the entire division to potentially win.

00:09:50
Speaker 1: Here.

00:09:50
Speaker 3: They have everything to play for. They're coming off of that big high against the Bills with something tangible, meaning they found ways to just get Josh, who's a better quarterback than almost anyone they'll face, better quarterback than Daniel Jones. That's not shade, it's just a fact, and you're going to get him off his mark, and they're not dis Daniel Jones can run the ballt in nowhere near what Josh Allen can do, but you can get Josh Allen office game. So I think that the technical defense is real feisty.

00:10:18
Speaker 1: You know what I thought though, as you're taught too, it supports your point. Shorter rest for the Colts do like a little extra rest for the Texans. And then I'm thinking about how that game played out against the Chiefs last week. Ninety snaps for the Colts defense. So that's a tired defense on less rest. It's just like another small reason. It's more about the eyeball test that number one, I think this is a special defense. And number two, I think the offense is improving from disastrous yep to competent like twenty first, you know what I mean, just like looking like a normal offense. Jaden Higgins starting to play better, Nico Collins looking like Nico Collins, like everything about it. They're just looking respectable. That's all I need. Let's go Texans. Make my boy Walker happy?

00:11:10
Speaker 2: All right? Your third pick?

00:11:12
Speaker 3: All right? I mean I'm gonna go all over here. You you kind of talked about Seattle.

00:11:18
Speaker 2: Okay, you're doing it.

00:11:19
Speaker 3: I just think it's an undervalued number, you know. And if I see a mispraise stockma snatch it up. Because ten and a half points at home against Minnesota. I don't know if you saw the weird when you start to see like strange things coming out in the media, you know, like the home.

00:11:36
Speaker 2: Life isn't good there for Minnesota.

00:11:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Minnesota it's like some weirdo stuff and I you know, I'm cool, Max Brosmer Okay, Like I kind of feel bad for the kid, Like, you know, you're coming in and justin Jefferson's not had the year that he would have liked to had, and you know, you see this frustration and these things and like all the stuff spoiling over with the most. Maybe he needs that vo Max, and maybe needs to you know, start tracking.

00:12:00
Speaker 2: I think it might.

00:12:01
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it'll be an upgrade. I think it might be an upgrade at quarterback. So that wouldn't be the reason. No, But we also don't.

00:12:06
Speaker 3: From because it's a bad circum It's you know, if the starter, if the backups better than the starter, they'd beat the starter. But like you know, it's just a hard situation to come into. You it would be better if they were, you know, just resting everyone Week eighteen style.

00:12:17
Speaker 2: But you know, we got six games to play.

00:12:19
Speaker 1: I heard I was actually a Vikings beat writer write something like the only positive from this Packers game is, you know, the next only half Thanksgiving and we're hitting the end of the season, and I'm thinking not really, six games is a long time in the NFL. Six games is an eternity and this Seahawks' defense is just going to swallow up that injured Vikings offensive line hole. So even if Brozemer plays well and I think he might have something, I think they like him a little bit.

00:12:46
Speaker 3: I like him a little.

00:12:47
Speaker 2: I mean, I've no might like him better than Jajim McCrae. I just I just.

00:12:50
Speaker 3: I don't know about that.

00:12:50
Speaker 2: I like ten and a half.

00:12:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think that Seattle's a lot better.

00:12:54
Speaker 1: I think these this Rams and Seahawks, these two teams are not only the best teams in the NFL. I think they're the best teams in the NFL with like a tier below to whoever is three and four. And so that's why I think you're right.

00:13:07
Speaker 3: The good news is that I feel so much more wide open than any other recent season. So maybe we won't see like a repeat of the same super Bowl, you know. Like I feel like I've seen the Chiefs a lot, seeing the Eagles a good amount, you know.

00:13:19
Speaker 1: I maybe we see some Rams in there, but it's been a while, but maybe some new Blood's been five years since the re.

00:13:25
Speaker 3: I'm just saying, so, like be fun to see different colors, you know.

00:13:28
Speaker 2: Okay, So I have one more pick to go.

00:13:31
Speaker 1: Now. I have certain rules. You have rules, you know, maxims that I meant to go by. Okay, one of them is don't pick against your own team, because then, oh, you don't really enjoy either way. And I broke that rule earlier this season when I went against the Patriots, and you know what they covered that week, and so I was wrong and I was annoyed by it. So I will not pick against the Patriots this week. They are favored by seven and a half against the Giants. But I'm just gonna be real. For people who like people who like real people like extra picks too, They're like, why only three?

00:14:05
Speaker 2: Give us more? We've been kind of giving a few more of this this week.

00:14:11
Speaker 1: I really like the Giants to cover that number this week, but I'm not gonna make that one of them.

00:14:15
Speaker 3: Don't do that.

00:14:16
Speaker 2: I just don't know.

00:14:17
Speaker 1: I want to enjoy it if the Patriots win big, but I don't think they will because their offensive line was struggling to run, block, and really pass protect before losing the entire left side of their offensive line. They can't run the ball right now in general, and their defensive line quietly not nearly the same without Milton Williams. I think the Giants are a very frisky team. I just think it's gonna be a good ball game. And seven and a half is too many points, So putting that to them, you're with me. Okay, here's the final category, and it's one of the maxims. You just look at the lines, and especially on lines that are like six and above or so, you're like, this NFL team has not earned the right to be favored by six points in any game. And I don't even care what the opponent is. I don't care about the situation. It's just you haven't earned the right to be six point favorites. There's two candidates, and so maybe we'll talk them through, but I like them both. The Miami Dolphins are six point favorites over the Saints. They're the Miami Dolphins, and I gotta admit the team I'm leaning towards, even though they're seven and four. The Jacksonville Jaguars, I don't know I've earned the right to be six and a half point favorites in Tennessee, and I know the.

00:15:29
Speaker 2: Opponent should matter to me.

00:15:31
Speaker 1: But I've watched the Titans the last week. They've gotten a little bit better, and it's it's a division matchup. The Titans are at home too, so in this case, the Dolphins are at home, but the Jaguars are six and a half point favorites on the road. Neither of these teams I feel like have earned the right to be this big a favorite. Just blindly, I will take the other side in these games. I think I'm leaning towards the Titans covering. And look, they covered last week again, the Seahawks last I mean you like the Titans last week to cover. Yeah, I think that they cover again. And I talked you out of it right the top out of it. It got murky, It got murky.

00:16:09
Speaker 3: But I'm I'm, I actually am with you, Like I think there's something about this team, and I don't. I don't like you're getting special teams. Things to start happening. They're they're digging down, they're you know, like it's it's one of those things where it's like, well, what do we got to lose. Let's figure this out, you know, like, let's have a little fun. Doesn't mean you win games, no, but it means you keep it closer.

00:16:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I do like the Saints to cover that six despite how poorly they've played, they've kind of been in every other week team. You might get a better performing out of them against the Dolphins, but ultimately, yes, I'm going to go with the Titans, who, to me, eye test wise, they've just been better overall defensively, came wards playing pretty well, and more than anything, I don't know what this Jaguars team is. No one does they just do you think they know their success rate on design runs? Last week we're twenty percent, and yet they had a couple big runs, like I don't even know, so I don't know what to do with them, and so it's division game.

00:17:03
Speaker 2: I think the Titans keep it close. That's what we do here, that's.

00:17:05
Speaker 3: What we do.

00:17:06
Speaker 2: We give winners.

00:17:07
Speaker 3: We love winners.

00:17:08
Speaker 1: Eight straight weeks for me, you're feeling good. Crushing me on game debut, everyone check that out. That's on NFL Network throughout the weekend, by the way, and it's also on YouTube. I should point out they call it game Picks on YouTube, but they put our show up on YouTube it would say like week thirteen game Picks. So if you're watching us on YouTube the NFL Daily, thank you, and you're just head over there and then head over to Cynthia's channel numbers game. Yeah, and then you got the show with Logan Ryan too, NFL. NFL like you, Cynthia, the hardest working woman in.

00:17:42
Speaker 3: The buildings as the man who literally works seven days week. It's a nice compliment.

00:17:47
Speaker 1: Let's get out of here, let's go eat some turkey. Uh yeah. Has a great Thanksgiving and a great weekend because.

00:17:56
Speaker 2: We'll be back.

00:17:58
Speaker 1: We'll actually be back next in this feed Black Friday. So we're doing a recap of the Thanksgiving games and the Black Friday game. Come have some fun with us. Then, thank you, Cynthia.

00:18:09
Speaker 3: Thanksgiving, Thanksgiving m