679: Week 3 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Late with your host JJ zach j J Zacherison.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode six hundred and seventy nine of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 2: Week one was good, Week two not so good. It was a rough sleeper show last week. I'll be the first one to admit it. Carson Wentz and Jehan Dotson, We're fine. Gerald Everett was good. Josh Palmer saved his day with a touchdown. Greg Grs was good too. So not everything was terrible, but some of the misses were pretty big misses. The entire Colts offense was complete trash. Zach Moss didn't get the garbage time work that I thought that he might get. MVS still stunk it up despite his route participation. DJ Shark was a goose egg. I've seen better days, but I want to recap things each week to really look back and hold myself accountable.

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Speaker 1: So let's be better here in week three.

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Speaker 2: Before get into the sleepers this week, I want to let you know that Twisted Tea and fandle of joined forces to bring you a one of a kind contest series. It gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in site credit. Introducing Twisted Tea's College Football Picks, a sports betting focused contest series. It's entirely free to play. The contest is simple. Each college football game will be assigned money lines, spread and total markets, with assigned points to each market. All I have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct selection you made. If at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest, you'll be eligible for your share of site credit. Head over to fandle dot com slash Twisted te Picks and make your picks, and remember please drink responsibly. The first tier on this sleeper show each week consists of players who are rostered in twenty five to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and in this tier is Jared Goff, my top streaming option this week. The Detroit Minnesota game has the highest game total of the week. The over under said at fifty three and a half over on fandals Sportsbook. So that's the first reason that he's an attractive option. Now we know Aman Ross Saint Brown has been completely crushing it to start this year, and he's played about seventy five percent of his snaps from the slot. Minnesota's allowed the eighth most receiving yards to the slot so far this year, so that's a good sign too. This game is being played in a dome and has real shootout potential, so GoF makes plenty of sense. He's a high end QB two for me this week. Jacoby Myers is still rostered in fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and if you need a high floor option, I think he's definitely in play. He's sitting at a twenty nine point seven percent target share in the season after seeing thirty eight percent of New England's targets this past Sunday against Pittsburgh. Now, the Steelers have traditionally been bad against slock eyes during the Tomlin era, but Myers is likely going to see a high target chair in this offense. Just in general. He had a twenty four percent target chair last year. Pro Football Focus has Myers at about a sixty two percent slot snap show so far this season. That's close to where he was a season to go. After last week. Baltimore now ranked second in the NFL and slot yards allowed and they're first and slot receptions allowed.

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Speaker 1: That's obviously skewed a little bit, but it can't hurt the Meyers argument.

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Speaker 2: I doubt the ceiling is insane, but in PPR formats, Myers is flexworthy. Traylon Burks is still rostered in fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues as well. If he's on your waiver wire, you should add him right away. Because the arrow was pointing up. In Week one, Burke saw sixteen percent of Tennessee's targets. He ran a route on just thirty eight percent of Ryan Tannehill's dropbacks. In week two, that target chair shot up to almost twenty nine percent. His route participation jumped to sixty three percent. Here are the current players with ten or more targets across the league right now and a yards per route run rate at or above three point four. You ready for this? Stefan Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle, Rashad Bateman, Traylon Burks. The Titans aren't facing the Bills this week, they get the Raiders. It's a much better matchup on paper. Burks is a really interesting player in Week three, and I think he's something that you should be buying in general in fantasy football, not that this is a fifteen transactions episode or anything. Robbie Anderson is still available in a lot of leagues, despite having a higher expected fantasy points total than DJ Moore through two games, and despite having a thirty two percent target share game and then an eighteen and a half percent target share game last week. It's not that the matchup is unreal against the Saints. I'd actually call it a tough one, but volume is what we're asking for in fantasy football. I at least think Anderson's a top fifty wide receiver this week, and then I've got two tight end streamers from this tier as well. One is Logan Thomas. I'm not jumping for joy for Logan Thomas like some across the industry are right now, because his peripherals aren't spectacular. He has about a thirteen percent target share through two games, and he actually ranks pretty low in route participation. But he's also coming off that acl in from last year, so it's a positive sign overall that he's at least been productive. And he gets the Eagles this week. Washington could be playing from behind in this game, and the Eagles have been pretty average at defending tight ends to start the year, so I think that Thomas could work. But to be honest, I like Evan Ingram more I talked about Ingram on the fifteen Transactions episode this week. I won't get into the fact that he's basically a top ten to top fifteen tight end usage wise to start the year. Like Thomas, Ingram's offense will probably be playing in a negative game script as big underdogs of the Chargers. Unlike Thomas, Ingram ranks eighth in route participation at the tight end position. He's been involved in his offense, and he has a shot to come through with a decent streaming game in Week three now this next year, cons it's a player's rostered and eleven to twenty five percent of Yahoo leagues. And I've got yet another quarterback streamer for you. His name is Marcus Mariota, and he likes to run. The Seahawks have been pretty average at giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. That's who Marcus Mariota facing, But they faced the Broncos in the forty nine ers. Technically, when you adjust for how those teams then did in their other games. Seattle's a top five matchup for quarterbacks. Now, the sample size is too small to work off of that, but I did want to at least throw that out there. The reason Mariota works is rushing. He's currently averaging forty four rushing yards per game. That's essentially an additional touchdown pass. He's only trailing Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts in rushing yards at the quarterback position. This game against Seattle's probably not going to be very fun. There's probably not gonna be a ton of offense. But I do think Mariota is a mid range QB two this week, making him streamer worthy. Josh Palmer is around the twenty five percent rostered mark, though by the end of this episode and by the time that it's out there, maybe that number is a little bit higher. Regardless, I do think that he works this week, especially if Keenan Allen is out again. At this moment, that has not been confirmed. But even though Palmer was bailed out by a late game touchdown in week two, he saw eight targets and accounted for a seventeen percent target share in that Chargers offense. In that offense that's totally fine. He also clearly played as the team's number two wide receiver. He actually led all Chargers wide receivers and snaps last week. He ran around on nearly every single one of Justin Herbert's dropbacks. Now he gets a decent matchup against the Jags and the Chargers of a team total above twenty seven points. Even if Keenan Allen goes, he might not be one hundred percent. So Palmer does work now. I talked about Sterling Shepard on the fifty Transaction Show, and I think he's a decent enough flex type option this week. I mean, ideally you'd have a better option, but Sheppard isn't a terrible play. He's seen the best target shair on the Giants this year at twenty six point four percent, and he's really doing that all over the field. He's seeing looks everywhere. Richie James has taken on the most slot snaps for the Giants this season. Shepherd second just follow the volume. Shepherd hasn't come through with a monster game yet this year, but the peripherals are there. And then lastly in this tier is JD mckiss. Week one was pretty neutral in terms of script for Washington, and then we saw a slightly different game environment in week two, which allowed mackissic to find the field more. That turned into Mackissic running routes at a higher rate in week two than he did in week one, and he saw a fifteen point nine percent target share last week that was more than double his week one target share. That's what's gonna happen in more negative game scripts for Washington. Week three is a game against Philadelphia, which could be a big negative game script for Washington. And that's basically what you have to bank on when you're talking about running back sleepers. You have to bank on gamescript. All non game script dependent running backs are already rostered in fantasy football. So anyone using JD McKissick or just hoping that this game gets out of hand, that he just gets a lot of garbage time targets. If this game goes south for Washington, that will benefit Jad McKissick. Now we're into players rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues. This is where you got to hold onto your pants because some of these picks are why each week, and let's start with a wild one. Mac Hollins Hunter Renfro's dealing with a concussion. There's a chance that we don't see him in the slot this week, and for Vegas, he missed practice on Wednesday. That alone could shift targets to other players in the offense. But mac Hollins had a twenty and a half percent target share this past week, and the Titans have been a team that hasn't really been targeted in the slot this year. They bring thirty first and percentage of targets that have gone to that area of the field, meaning teams are beating them more on the perimeter that's where mac Hollins plays. On the season, Hollins has played almost just as much as DeVante Adams, He's run just five fewer routes, So I think he does make sense as a very deep sleeper this week. I'm talking deep now. With all the injuries to Buccaneers wide receivers, you could look to Brashad Perriman. I'd expect him to get some run with this Mike Evans suspension, and I'm expecting Chris Godwin to not suit up again this week.

00:09:55
Speaker 1: And even at this moment, I'm not.

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Speaker 2: Totally sure I Julio Jones is gonna play, but regardless even though the matchup could be tough at times depending on where Jay R Alexander lines up. Paraman was second on the team and wide receiver routes run last week. We know he's got the ability to make a big player too, and that's really what you're crossing your fingers for when it comes to these types of players.

00:10:15
Speaker 1: Russell Gage is a safer option for sure on that team coming out of the slot, but Paraman does make some sense too.

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Speaker 2: Now. I talked about Ashton Dulan on the fifteen Transactions episode and I want to bring him up here too. Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce could be back this week, but I still believe that Ashton Dulan could end up becoming the team's number two wide receiver this year, even if he doesn't play as the clear two this week. The Colts get the Chiefs, they could be running a lot of three wide receiver sets because they're going to fall behind in that game. Last week, three Colts wide receivers Paris Campbell, Dulan, and Michael Strahan ran a similar number of routes in a situation like that where they were trailing Dulan's just been effective and when he's on the field, he's getting targeted. Among all players with ten or more targets this year, he's tied with Kyle Phillips for the league lead and targets per route run. Maybe Dooland doesn't come through this week, but I do think it's possible he has another solid game. And then lastly in this tier, Juwan Johnson. He's still rostered in just one percent of Yahoo leagues. Johnson has won of fifteen tight ends, averaging a sixteen percent target chair per game so far this year, and he's in the top fifteen in route participation as well. He's the Saints tight end one. He's playing as the tight end one, so you can be a dark throw tight end if someone like Evan Ingram isn't available for you this week. Now, before I let you go, I want to throw out some defensive streamers that you could play here in Week three. There's actually a good number of them this week, so I'm gonna do this more in rapid fire fashion. The Giants were the fifteen transactions pick because their home favorites and they're facing Cooper Rush. But I think you could go play Seattle, who's at home against Atlanta, And you could even use the Falcons if you're in a pinch. And then there's another matchup where you could do the exact same thing, and that Chicago and Houston.

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Speaker 1: You could play the Bears defense.

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Speaker 2: I like the Bears defense more than the text defense, but you could even play the Texans defense too, So there's five right there. I think the Giants are the most intriguing, but there's a lot of variance with defense, so I do think that any of those defenses work this week.

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Speaker 1: That's going to know it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening.

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Speaker 2: If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Remember to go check out lateround dot com and click Patreon and join the Patreon. There's rest of the season rankings, weekly rankings, an awesome discord community, and more so check it out lateround dot com. Thanks for listening everyone, I will talk to you tomorrow with the last episode of the week, the Mailbag episode