1062: 15 Transactions for Week 14

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ zachera JJ zacher reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode ten sixty two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I know I sound like I just smoked eight packs of cigarettes. This is what happens when you travel for Thanksgiving and you've got to todther running around. So apologies for my voice being even more annoying than it usually is. I also know that a lot of trade deadlines have passed. I know that you can't totally act on all the buy and sell recommendations from the show anymore. With that being said, I do still have some buys and cells on today's episode because they can help you with knowing how confident to feel about certain players. As we get closer to the end of the season, this show will turn into more ads and drops the final week, Week seventeen. It's always the quickest episode of the season because just fill with those ads and drops. But I did want to get that caveat out of the way before we dig into this week's list of transactions. Let's do that now, add Pat Bryant. So the first three transactions this week, they're all Denver Broncos. Let's start with Pat Bryant. His usage has been trending up over the last handful of weeks. I've talked about him plenty on The Sleeper Show, but we saw an interesting shift in Week thirteen. He ended up running five more routes and seeing four more targets than Troy Franklin. That's something that we hadn't seen all season long. Brian had a seventy seven percent route share against Washington and that was in a game that was coming out of the by. That was a season high for him. We know that it can take some time for rookies to see more expanded roles in their offenses. This is definitely noteworthy. So look at Pat Bryant this week off the waiver wire sell Courtland Sutton. So if you have Courtland Sutton, you're probably feeling a little bit excited after what he did in Week thirteen. He scored seventeen point two PPR points against the Commanders, which was his best output since Week five. The problem though, he only had a fourteen percent target share, that was his lowest since Week six. Sutton just really hasn't been getting it done since the first month or so of the season. From Week six onward, his last seven games, he's averaged his ten point four PPR points per game. He was at sixteen point one PPR points per game across his first five A huge reason for this is competition other Broncos receivers, the aforementioned Pat Bryant, the aforementioned Troy Franklin. They've emerged and as a result, since Week five, Cortland Sutton has his seventeen point seven percent target share per game rate. Before this stretch, that target share per game rate was almost twenty three percent. Now, if the schedule looked good for Denver, it'd be one thing. But in their remaining four games in the fantasy season, they get the Raiders, Packers, Jags, and Chiefs. He might be fining against the Raiders, and I don't mind his perimeter matchup against the Jags, but all three playoff matchups Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Kansas City, they're all against bottom half opponents. By justin fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, you can usually spot a cell candidate by looking at production and then looking at the usage, and right now the production is up for Courtland Sutton, but the usage, it was still kind of down. That's why he's a cell After that Week thirteen performance, sell RJ. Harvey, Okay, this is the last one about the Denver Broncos. I promise, and I will say I don't think this transaction. I don't think it's one that you desperately need to act on, but it's something that we should probably talk about. RJ. Harvey's usage without JK. Dobbins, it's been okay, it hasn't been great. In Week thirteen, we actually saw Harvey's usage decline versus his other game. Without Dobbins, he was on the field for just forty seven percent of Denver's offensive snaps. That number was sixty one percent in week eleven. His route share was only twenty nine percent against the Commanders. The last time we saw the Broncos it was forty eight percent. Fortunately, when he's been on the field, his workload has been okay. Harvey's been around a sixty five percent running back rush share and a nine percent target share that can yield usable results as we saw in Week thirteen, and hey, maybe that workload improves. The problem here though, is twofold number one. He outplayed his peripherals in week thirteen, so naturally he's more of a sell than a buy. But also look at that playoff schedule. I just talked about it with Courtland Sutton. The Broncos get the Packers, Jags, and Chiefs during their three playoff weeks. That gives the Broncos a bottom five schedule for running backs by justin points allowed in weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen. Each of those teams in this data is pre Monday Night Football, but each of those teams rank as bottom ten opponents for running backs according to my schedule adjusted numbers. So again, this isn't something that you absolutely need to do. R J. Harvey's a rookie. He could see more work as the season goes on, There's no doubt. But it's definitely a good thing to have in the back of your mind if you're relying on Harvey during the playoffs, which I know a lot of you probably are. At Blake Koram, I've talked about Blake Coreum so often on this show. This can be brief. We can talk about this really quickly. He's arguably the most valuable handcuff in all of fantasy football, and yet He's still rostered in just sixteen percent of Yahoo leagus, and he has some standalone value too. He's averaged a forty one percent running back rush are per game rate over his last six that's resulted in ten rush attempts per game during that timeframe. As I said in the fifteen Transactions newsletter, tis the season to handcuff. Blake Koram should be rostered everywhere. Ad Isaac Tesla so Amaras Saint Brown, had an ankle injury on Thanksgiving. He could miss some time right now. As it stands today, it sounds like he's a game time decision for Thursday Night Football. So thankfully it doesn't seem like it's that serious of an injury. But this could open the door for Isaac Tesla. Against the Packers on Thanksgiving, he had a ninety four percent route chair. He had two targets. He caught both of them for thirty five yards and a touchdown. And this week they get the Cowboys. Dallas is the friendliest team to wide receivers this year by adjustin points allowed, and they've been specifically bad against perimeter wide receivers. Teslaw on the year. According to PFFDTA, he's played seventy two percent of his snaps out wide, So if Saint Brown does miss this week, Isaac Tesla could see some fantasy production hold. Terry McLaurin. Terry mclaurin's return from injury in Week thirteen was pretty awesome. He was a little bit limited. He ran around on just fifty nine percent of Washington's dropbacks, but he still saw season highs and target share at thirty one percent and peep your points at twenty two point six. He saw a target on forty four percent of his routes. Run. That's nuts. Now, your inclination might be to sell that performance. It's not one that's easily repeatable, but mclauren might be more of a bye than a cell. Not only could Jade Daniels be back during the final parts of the fantasy season, but Washington they're gonna get the Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys in the fantasy playoffs. Now, Philly is an if your matchup, but the Cowboys in Week seventeen, McLaurin could be awesome in that matchup. I'd expect mclauren's snaphare and routeshare to rise over the coming weeks. We can't assume that his target chair is gonna be thirty one percent each week even with that increased snapshare and routechair, but it was really good to see him both healthy and productive. Ad ad Ni Mitchell. I mentioned on the podcast last week that ad Ni Mitchell was almost a transaction prior to Week thirteen after his performance against the Falcons, I wish I would have kept him on that list. Since being dealt to the Jets, Mitchell has seen target shares of twenty four four percent, twenty six percent, and thirty nine percent. He's coming off the game in Week thirteen where he caught eight of twelve targets for one hundred and two yards in a touchdown, So with Garrett Wilson still sidelined, he makes for an obvious get off the waiver wire this week at Devon Veleay. So Ever, since Rashid Shiheed was traded to Seattle, Devon Bailey has seen target shares about twelve percent, sixteen percent, and twenty four percent in his three games played. He didn't have that much production until this past week against Miami, but against Miami he had twenty three PPR points. He caught all eight of his targets for ninety three yards in a touchdown. You're probably only gonna play Veley in deeper leagues, but his performance in his recent usage it makes him an option off the waiver wire This week by Bucky Irving to me, week thirteen was a good one for Bucky Irving. Not only did he finally get out there and play, but he also had pretty good usage. Irving snapshare was still a little bit low, was fifty two percent. It had been seventy five percent to eighty percent pre injury, but he walked away from that game against the Cardinals with an eighty one percent running back rush are and keep in mind that was his first game back. You have to ask yourself what happens with Bucky Irving when things really start cooking Irving and the Bucks. They get the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Dolphins to close out the fantasy season. There's a very real chance that the Buccaneers see positive game scripts in each one of those games, and considering Irving's run game usage in Week thirteen, that means that the odds are good that he's gonna see a nice amount of work. None of those matchups are frightening if you've got Bucky Irving, especially the latter three matchups, which are the Falcons, Panthers, and Dolphins because those come in the Fantasy playoffs. So Bucky Irving right now, to me, definitely more of a bye than a cell add Keaton Mitchell. So when we talk about handcuffs across the league, very rarely does Keaton Mitchell's name get brought up. And the likely reason for that is that he's undersized. Even with a Derrick Henry injury, Mitchell probably wouldn't get like twenty carries per game. He's a smaller player, But if Derrick Henry went down, Keaton Mitchell would definitely get more work in that backfield. Not only that, but Mitchell starting to see a little bit more working that Raven's backfield just naturally. Over his last three games, his routchair has gone up to nineteen percent. Prior to that it was five percent. That's led to games with a twelve percent and ten percent target shair over his last three. Justice Hill is on ir now too. Now, Mitchell hasn't been the running back to take on Justice Hill's role, which is that long down and distance work, that two minute work that's been Rasheen Ali's job, but without Justice Hill, there's a little bit more room for work than before. And given Mitchell's speed, he only needs a few touches to be fantasy relevant. So you've sort of got a handcuff plus situation going on here, although that plus it's probably more applicable to deeper leagues, Sell Patrick Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes had a great Week thirteen performance in fantasy football, There's no doubt, but it was also really predictable. The Chiefs faced the Cowboys, and no team in football has allowed more adjusted points to quarterbacks this year than the Dallas Cowboys. Things are not going to be that easy. Over the final four weeks of the fantasy season. The Chiefs get the Texans, Chargers, Titans, and Broncos. According to my ad Justin Fantasy points allowed numbers pre Monday Night Football, those teams rank as the toughest, the seventh toughest, the seventeenth toughest, and the second toughest matchups for quarterbacks by Justin Fantasy points Allowed. Mahomes has gotten it done this year in fantasy, but he's faced two opponents recently who rank in the bottom five and adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks Buffalo and Denver. In those games, he scored ten and a half and thirteen point three standard fantasy points. He's also averaged thrower than eighteen standard fantasy points per game over his last four. He was at twenty four and a half points per game across his first eight this season. It's not going to be an easy ride for Patrick Mahomes rest of season. Ad Harold Fannin. Over the last month and a half of the football season, Harold Fannin's usage has kind of been awesome. It's just being buried because of the offense that he's in. He's averaging almost a twenty five percent target shapper game rate over his last six and he hit a season in career high ninety three percent role participation against the forty nine Ers this past Sunday. Fannin's still out there in two thirds of Yahoo leagues, but his remaining schedule isn't that bad. They get the Titans, Bears, Bills, and Steelers that Week seventeen game against Pittsburgh. That's particularly interesting because Pittsburgh this year they've been a top five matchup for tight ends by justin fantasy points allowed. Harold Fannin might not be a top five guy, but we shouldn't be leaving this kind of workload on the waiver wire, at least in my opinion. Add Darren Waller. Now, I know I've talked about Darren Waller quite bid over the last month on this show, but I do think this is worth repeating this transaction for two reasons. First, he came out in Week thirteen. He essentially saw his standard Miami Dolphins workload. He had a sixty nine percent route chare. That was a number that was pretty comparable to his two healthy games as a Dolphin in Week five and six earlier this season. He also had a fifteen percent target share. The usage overall was not bad. And the second reason that you should be rostering Waller is the schedule. You've heard this before, but Miami has the best schedule in the Fantasy playoffs for tight ends. That's because he gets the Steelers, the fourth best matchup for tight ends by justin points allowed, and then the Bengals, which is the best matchup. He gets them in Week fifteen and sixteen. So at a minimum, he can help you get to the Fantasy Championship where he faces the Buccaneers, and the Buccaneers are mostly an average opponent for tight ends, so if Waller balls out in those two matchups, maybe you'll have confidence to even play him in Week seventeen. At the very least, I do think he can be usable and that Week fifteen and sixteen stretch. Add the Miami Dolphins defense. So how about this. The Dolphins have ranked as a top seven fantasy defense and four of their last five games. And again, this is pre Monday Night Football, so technically some defense could jump them if they perform well tonight. I'm just recording it before Monday Night Football, so you guys can listen to this during your commute on Tuesday. Regardless, Miami's gotten it done against mediocre offenses, but that's exactly what they're gonna face this week against New York. They get the Jets. Now, New York has been a worse matchup for opposing defenses now that Justin Fields is benched. But the Dolphins right now their road favorites, and that game has a low forty two and a half point total. They're a pretty safe streaming option this week. Add the Detroit Lions defense. The Lions get the Cowboys this week. So you probably just heard that transaction and you're a little bit confused. But here's the thing. If you're looking at the playoffs, you might want to stat Detroit. They won't be that usable more than likely in Week fifteen against the Rams, but then in Week sixteen they're going to be home against the Steelers, and then in week seventeen they're gonna be on the road against the currently horrific Minnesota Vikings offense. So if you're in a league that stashes defenses, if you're in a league where only a few defenses are available, Detroit might be dropped this week because they get Dallas. And if they are dropped, you might want to consider picking them up and stashing them for week sixteen and seventeen. So, as you guys know, I'm under the weather. My brain's going a little slower than usual. And as I was watching that Monday night football game, I didn't even think to add Devin Singletary to this transactions list, even though I absolutely should have, because Tyrone Tracy has a hip injury and Devin Singletary he stepped in last night and he had a strong workload. He had his highest running back rush here since week nine, he hit his highest target share of the season at twelve and a half percent. The Giants have a bye this week, but if Tracy misses anytime Singletary he has a shot to be in the RB two conversation. The Giants had the fourth best running back schedule in the Fantasy Football playoffs. That's according to my adjusted Fantasy points allowed numbers. They get the Commanders, Vikings, and Raiders, So your bonus transaction this week is to add Devin Singletary. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and do it to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for hanging in there while my voice sounded the way that it sounds. Greatly appreciate it. I'll talk to you guys tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends episode.