NCAA Women’s Swim & Dive: Predictions & Storylines

What's up everybody?
Welcome back to a very special episode and never before done episode of Unfiltered Waters.
I am sitting here, obviously not in the studio, obviously not even on the ground.
I am sitting here on the 7-meter at Georgia Tech two days before NCAA's kicks off.
And yes, I am doing my very first solo solo episode because my beautiful co-host Elizabeth Beisel is currently stuck on the runway at Nashville International Airport.
And so it's Monday, and we gotta get an episode to you guys on Wednesday.
So I am doing this solo, bringing you all things NCAA women's preview.
Go easy on me.
I am doing my absolute best.
I have so many data points, I have so many anecdotes, I have so many predictions, but it's my first time doing it all alone.
So I am admittedly a little bit nervous uh not having anyone to play off of, but I'm actually really excited because not only is it so freaking cool to be sitting up here with the pool behind me, it's really, really neat to be able to talk about this year's NCAAs because there's so many unprecedented things, there's so many records that are going to be broken.
And so let's just dive right in the seven-meter in Georgia Tech Aquatic Center two days before the women's swimming and diving national championships.
And when you think about women's swimming and diving national championships, you have to think of Arena.
Last year, four of the five teams that placed in the top five were utilizing Arena as their main competition suits.
And of course, they are the exclusive partner to UVA, who is now going for their sixth national championships this year.
I think the other you really unique thing about Arena is that they are innovating constantly.
There is legitimately no other brand that has come out with three tech suits in the last five years.
They had the Glide in 2020, they had the Primo in 2024, and this past season they launched the Veloce, which everyone is raving about.
It is an incredible suit and also gives you the ability to feel customized.
They have different compression for different events, different types of suits for different body types.
I think that's something that's really, really important to me.
You should not be having to think about your tech suit when you're behind the blocks.
And Arena really takes care of that.
They have that consistency because they've actually had the same suit designer since 1973.
And the only reason that the Veloce is the first suit without this incredible legend is that he passed, unfortunately, in COVID.
So that is why I am so proud to be partnering with Arena Sport this week at the Women's Swimming and Diving National Championships.
Go check out all of their product at arenasport.com.
So I'm gonna go through just kind of the projections of each team and their standings based on the psych sheets, and then I'm gonna roll into some top storylines, um, then talk about, of course, the I would say the most discussed thing coming into these NCAAs, which is the elimination of the B Final.
We've talked about it, but I want to dive into it a little bit more surrounding the fact that you know there's so much is linked to the ESPN broadcast and what that means.
Uh Bisel has very much prepped me around what the stakes are this year, what the stakes are to be able to get onto actual live broadcasts next year.
So we'll dive into that and then we'll just talk about some of my favorite swimmers to look out for, some storylines, some you know, records to watch that could fall, and we'll wrap it up from there and we'll move on.
And I won't, I'm not scared of heights, but I won't lie.
Looking behind me and looking over, the fact that we're not even on the 10 meter is just nuts to me that people just jump off of this willingly.
So obviously, as we look at projections, you've got UVA is ranked first, you've got Michigan, followed closely by Stanford, Texas, Cal, Tennessee, and Louisville.
So those are the your top seven.
And it's interesting, like when you know, obviously with the Walsh sisters graduating, I think everyone was unsure what's that gonna look like at UVA, who's gonna step up, who's gonna fill those big shoes.
I found out a crazy stat that the Walsh sisters accounted for a hundred and I believe it's 114 points last year, and UVA won by 127 points.
So that's a lot of points to make off, make up.
But you look at the people that have stepped up, and when Bisel and I went and visited them in November this past year, it was very clear to me that everybody stepped up.
There were there was no question that UVA was going to continue to be the one to beat.
UVA is going for a record-breaking sixth national championship.
And Coach DeSorbo, who I've talked to multiple times, definitely said it's not something they talk about every single day, but of course it's a goal.
It's the seniors wanting to make sure they uphold the tradition.
It's the freshmen wanting to not be the first ones to break that streak.
And you look at Anna Moshe, Amy Canney, Claire Krizan, Katie Grimes, Sarah Curtis, all of them have stepped up in a major way.
If you look at their results from SECs, they absolutely stomped the competition.
Um, and the cool thing is that only 15% of their scoring class is actually graduating this year.
So there's not gonna be as much of a fallout next year, but it's just it's just crazy to me that they're still looking insanely strong.
And in my opinion, people might come for me on this.
I really think it's a a poor woman race for second, and I think UVA is gonna have to do like truly mess up to not be able to take this sixth crown.
So you've got an interesting kind of trio here, uh, maybe quad.
You've got Michigan who won the Big Ten for the first time since 2018, led by Bella Sims, who obviously just transferred from the Gators.
You have Stamford, Lucy Bell, Caroline Bricker, Tori Husk.
I mean, all of them were huge standouts last year, not only on NCAAs, but also when it came to the international stage.
Um, and then you have Texas, who is always consistent.
I was talking with um Kevin Cargill, who is gonna be the announcer with me in prelims, and he pulled up this crazy nerdy stat.
And I promise I won't say too many nerdy stats, but I just think this really helps illustrate how much Stanford drops from their in-season meets to NCAAs versus how much Texas does.
And this will really come into play when we're looking at, you know, Stanford is ranked ahead of Texas barely in terms of projections.
It sounds like Stanford, when they were coached by Greg Meehan, would drop 0.65 per on average per hundred from in season to the big meet.
Now, Texas is usually pretty flat, they swim lights out in you know all their mid-season meets, their conference meets, and don't typically drop as much, which that's usually was my strategy when I was swimming.
You know, I was very, very consistent throughout the season, but definitely something to take into account.
And given that Texas is coming in with five less individual swims than Stanford, they're really gonna have to step up in a really big way to be able to, you know, maintain that second spot over Stanford and over Michigan.
Then we've got uh Cal, we've got some younger athletes coming in.
Claire Weinstein, Olympian, Olympic medalist.
Um, but her first time competing at an NCAA's, Tegan Odell again, first time competing.
Cal is definitely bringing in more of uh youth, which I guess you could look at and argue, oh well, they don't have experience at NCAAs, but Claire has experience at the Olympic Games, so I I really don't think that Claire is gonna be affected by that.
You know, she's swimming the 200-free, the 500-free, uh, the mile.
And and I just I think she's gonna be incredible.
Now, do I think they have enough depth to challenge Texas, Stanford, Michigan?
I don't think this year, I think next year 100%.
Um, but I think they're just gonna be tough racers all the way throughout the meet because that is just kind of the cow lineage, and and some of these girls I know personally will step up.
Then we've got Tennessee, headlined by Camille Spink, who I feel like she very much reminds me of Carolyn Joyce back in the day.
Camille was 20.8 in the 50.
That's obviously her, you know, headlining event.
She's ranked first, she's really, I think, a huge favorite in that event.
But she can also go 56 low in the 100 and 141 in the 200.
So being able to have that consistency, not only for individual scoring, but of course for Tennessee's relays, is gonna really come into play.
And then we have Louisville um rounding out seventh uh and headlining Anastasia Gorbenko coming in first in the 200 IM and then top three in the breaststrokes.
So all these teams super strong, crazy uh point difference from second to seventh.
So from Michigan to Louisville, there's only a 79-point spread, which I thought was I mean, a 79-point spread is close enough that you interchange a couple of races, you know, something happens, a do queue in the relay, or someone steps up big in a final a couple times, and that that swing could happen within a day.
So to me, that's what makes NCAAs unlike any other meet.
I can now speak to this that I came last year.
Um, just watching how every single race matters, every single touch, every single relay, and that's why the energy is just so electric because the everything can change on the drop of a hat.
And I loved getting to experience that last year.
I know that I didn't do it in my own career, but I obviously am besties with enough athletes and got to experience the energy myself as a true fan.
Um, and so I'm really looking forward to that again this year.
So moving on, let's talk, let's talk about the B Final, um, elimination of the B Final, right?
I think this, I I, you know, we did an episode about this when this ruling dropped.
I've talked to multiple coaches, multiple athletes.
And I think the biggest sentiment is especially the athletes that have swum at NCAAs, that know what it's like to be able to have teammates get a second swim, score in that ninth through 16, bring the energy.
I think that's incredible.
I think playing devil's advocate, when you look at the other side of the coin and you look at other sports, we're really the only sport that does that.
Um, you know, track and field does not do that.
And so I know it's obviously tradition, and that's really challenging.
Now, my solution, missy solution, visal solution was could we bring the B final to be before the session?
Because we all understand that swimming can be boring at times, swimming can be not as entertaining for someone who is outside the sport, and that's the whole goal, right?
Attracting people that are outside the sport to appreciate how incredible our sport truly is.
And so this is really what's at stake by eliminating the B Final and bringing this broadcast down to 60 minutes.
Um I will read some of this because this is directly from Bysal.
But essentially, right now we've been streaming on ESPN Plus.
Sometimes we get, you know, a highlight show on a delayed broadcast, but we have actually NCAA Swimming and Diving Championships has never been aired live on TV before.
Only tape delayed.
So this year is essentially our audition to be able to convince ESPN that we deserve a place live, that we have enough action and excitement for people who are not swim nerds essentially, or family of the swimmers to want to watch and to want to enjoy that.
And so, really, the goal is for it to be punchy, fast, storytelling, like Baiso's gonna be walking around and like interviewing coaches right before the A final, and just again, bringing the action, and not that the B final is not action, but just coming from my own husband who's foot plays football, he knows nothing about swimming, it can be confusing.
You're like, wait, is this the top scoring?
Is this like what's going on?
And so I'm very, very interested to see how this is received on deck.
I've heard coaches say they're not gonna come if they don't have athletes in the A final, um, you know, how viewers receive it, uh, is it positive?
Do we convince ESPN?
There's just a lot of pressure, and I know the people involved at ESPN, I know Bisal, and so I'm very confident that we can accomplish that goal, but so much of that is unknown right now.
So I I will be waiting just like you all, and just hoping for the best, and hoping that our sport can continue to grow and we can one day make a profit from NCAAs.
How amazing would that be?
But I do think because of that, the prelims are going to be absolutely lights out.
You know, athletes are still able to score in the ninth through 16th position, so I feel like they're gonna be going for blood.
I feel like it's gonna be the fastest prelims of any NCAAs.
And, you know, that's kind of how the Olympics is, right?
Getting into those top eight positions, uh, especially in the 400s, I remember having to go pretty close to 100%.
And that's why you train as hard as you do, right?
Being able to, you know, not conserve in the morning to get in is a big piece of just being an elite athlete, um, whether it's at the collegiate level or at the professional level.
I'll pause.
You're probably hearing a lot of diving boards.
So to my right, probably your left on the screen, uh, Georgia Tech is practicing uh on the on the boards, and I thought this is too yes, so you can see they're practicing.
So this is this is reality, people.
We are we are live broadcasting here, and so just felt like it was too cool not to give you this visual for those of you who are watching versus listening.
But if you're listening and like what in the world is that noise, it's the diving boards.
So don't worry, it's not anything that's falling down on me.
It's just elite divers practicing their dives for NCAAs.
Um, so moving on to the format, if you're not aware, maybe you aren't as avid of a swim fan, the way that this is gonna play out is each night it'll go two swimming events, three rounds of diving, two swimming events, three rounds of diving, and one relay.
So that will be the order, that will be how it's played out.
Um, awards will not be happening.
Uh, Elizabeth will actually just be doing the post-race interview as she always does and handing the trophy to the first place winner, and then everyone else will get their trophies sent to them or given to them afterwards.
So, again, that's all around the broadcast.
It's to make it more punchy and action-packed.
Um, so look forward to that.
And, you know, I think we all talk about change and we're all making an effort to change.
And so I'm sure nothing will be perfect here as a first-time go-around is never perfect, but I hope that it is for the most part received amazing.
So that's all I have to say about that.
When you think of elite performance, you think of control the controllables.
There are so many athletes that are flying in where their flights are getting delayed, they're in a new hotel room, they maybe have noises that they're not used to, they're not sleeping as well.
And so you have to focus on things that you can fully control.
And so that's where dream recovery comes in.
I am constantly traveling, but I just traveled to this meet, I'm here for two weeks, and so making sure I have my performance mask, making sure I have my dream tank plus, those are all things that I know are gonna make sure that I'm showing up at my absolute best to interview and make sure that I'm telling these athletes' stories to the best of my ability.
And so, why wouldn't you control what you can control by just ordering the tools that you need to make sure you have a better sleep and an optimized night's rest?
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Let's move on to schedule.
And I feel like the schedule changeup has not been as, I don't say, like hot take as the B final elimination.
I I think talking to people like Coach Bowman or Coach DeSorbo, they just said it was something that they had to practice a little bit, um, strategize a little bit more.
Anytime you make a schedule change, it's not like it's gonna benefit, it might benefit some people in some ways and you know be a detriment to others in other ways.
You know, for example, Campbell uh stole on Texas, amazing Hunter Flyer, amazing 400 I amer.
Guess what?
They're on the same day back to back on day one.
And so having to make that choice, she's gonna go for the 400 I am.
But that does make a difference when it comes to strategizing events, when it comes to team scoring.
Um, so so look out for that of just maybe seeing a swimmer where you think they're gonna swim something else, but they choose to swim, you know, a different event just because it's the right play out for the team.
The other piece is the very first event of NCAAs is the mile.
Normally it's the last day, it's that's what kicks off, you know, Saturday night, and so ESPN decided to move this to be day one.
Huge shift in the way that you know the distance swimmers are viewed, in my opinion, which I love because once upon a time I had the American record in the mile, and I love distance swimming, and we deserve more credit sometimes, but I think you know the teams are really gonna be depending on their distance swimmers to set the tone of the entire meet.
And have I learned one thing about NCAAs, momentum matters more than any other meet.
And so, you know, Texas is gonna be leaning on Gillian Cox, you got Cal leaning on Claire Weinstein.
Like, you I mean, it's going to be really important that they set the tone for the the relays following.
Um, but I'm looking forward to seeing how that goes and just happy for the distance swimmers because who wants to swim the mile on the last day of the meet?
Not me, not fun.
Um, so that that's really the main things, other than you know, a little bit of strategy.
It sounds like majority of the teams have made those adjustments and it's not you know a make or break.
So let's move on to people to watch.
I, as a journalist, I'm trying very hard not to just play favorites.
I'm trying to look at this as you know a guide of who to look for, um, whether it's an up-and-comer or a veteran.
I gotta start with Claire Curzan because she is coming off American record in the Turner Backstrucker SECs.
She is swimming.
I mean, I feel like each year she swims better and better.
Um, we're gonna be able to talk to her uh in actually tomorrow.
I'll I'll get to pick her brain a little bit.
But really neat to see her confidence grow, to see her become a leader on the team at UVA.
And I feel like not only in the sprint relays, in the hunter backstroke and the tuner backstroke, and some of the sprint distances, she's gonna be a massive player in contributing to UVA success.
Next up, we have Anna Moshe.
The big question around Anna is can she break Missy Franklin's 200-free American record?
That thing is I've watched that video a million times.
It's the most dominant race.
Like Missy gets out in front ahead of Simone and does not stop or look back.
Anna has broken 140.
She's been 139, but can she get to that low 139?
I think yes.
I think watching Anna when we went to UVA again in November, seeing how she trains, seeing her just intensity focus, all the things that you need to be absolutely elite.
I think this is the time to do it under the lights.
And so I don't know, are we gonna see a 138?
That would be that's a guy's time.
Like that is insane.
And anytime I say that's a guy's time, I'm always like, that's I mean, that's what I say about Katie Ladecki every single day.
So uh screaming for Anna, not only in the 2003.
I mean, she's again, she's a huge player on those relays that matter so much uh for the team scoring.
So pumped for her.
Then we move on to we'll go on to Gillian Cox from Texas, so dominant last year, you know, commanding lead out of the gate in the 500 and a 1650.
I believe she'll do the exact same thing again.
Will she rate 430 and the 500?
I don't know.
I do think that all the miles are going to be that much faster because they're fresh.
It's the first event.
They can go into it.
They're not, you know, dealing with the fatigue of a four-day meet.
Um, so Jillian will be a huge one to watch uh in the 500 in the mile.
And then you've got her teammate Campbell, uh, stole, and then I, you know, I obviously talked about where the events kind of she she's picking between Hundredfly, 400 IM on day one.
Um, but she's just an all-around versatile swimmer, really grown into herself this year.
It's been cool to see kind of what she's done throughout the the mid-season meets and SECs.
So um excited to see where she ends up, but she'll be another one to watch in those mid-distance races.
Then we've got Alex Shackle, Olympian out of Indiana.
Um, you know, Tuner Fly is wide open.
Wide open.
I believe it was like, I think it was 15 of the 20.
Don't quote me on that, but so many of the Tuner Fly finalists last year, including the winner Emma Sticklin, all graduated.
So the Turner Fly is, I think, gonna be a really tight race between um Hannah Bellard and Alex Shackl.
Hannah did touch out Alex a couple times throughout the season, but Alex has that Olympic experience.
She's been around.
It is her first NCAAs, but uh I'm I'm rooting for Alex because I think it's gonna be, I think it's gonna be an awesome first NCAA experience for her.
Moving on to Camille Spink.
How can you not talk about the sprints without talking about Camille?
She is such a spitfire, she is out of Tennessee, she's been pretty much lighting it up all year.
Do I think that she can break Gretchen Walsh's American record?
I would say not this year.
I think she needs a little more development.
I could be wrong, but it's dropping over half a second is a pretty tall task.
But I do think that she will be very dominant in the 50.
I think she'll make a run at winning the 100 as well, and then she'll be in the mix in the in the 200.
So um really excited to see her, talk with her a little bit later, um, and see, you know, what she does leading Tennessee.
Then we've got uh Anastasia Gorbenko.
She's ranked first in the 200 IM, third and third in the 100 in 200 breaststroke at Louisville.
She, again, has been someone who's been dominant out of the gate this year.
Um, so looking forward to seeing, you know, what she does.
I feel like I keep saying that, but this this NCW is really unique because I feel like there's so much new blood.
So many people that were winning were seniors last year and graduated.
So it's just kind of this new wave of talent, which in my opinion only lends itself well to I'm always gonna go back to team USA and international meets.
But I think sometimes when you have these Titans, like you have the Walsh sisters, Kate Douglas, when you have these athletes, sometimes it's really hard to have kind of the wave below that breakthrough and have the confidence to think, oh, I can I can take these people down.
And so I'm interested to see how much the this next wave steps up.
My gut is that they will, but there's a lot of new names and new blood that we didn't hear from last year, and that that's just what the sport's all about.
Another name is Bella Sims, of course.
She transferred from Gator.
She had a great, I thought she had a great NCAAs last year, getting second in the 200 uh and 100 backstroke.
But Bella has been, I mean, I cannot wait to talk to Bella because the fact that she's able to do a lights out 100 backstroke and then also have a 400 IM that's having her rank first going into this meet, it is Katinka Hozu level versatility, in my opinion.
And so um, one, I would like to hear what her relationship is like with the 400 IM and you know what she's what she's thinking, how she's been, where her happiness has been ash after she's transferred.
Um, it sounds like based on all her many TikToks that she is very happy, but um always fun to see when someone makes a really difficult decision to change their entire life.
I mean, she literally moved climates, she moved teams, she moved training uh systems, and so it's always makes me feel relieved when that pays off and and pays off in a big way.
So interested to see what she does.
And then finally, another one is you've got Claire Weinstein again, 200, 500 mile.
I I don't I don't know what will happen.
I mean, Cal is obviously a new place for her.
So, what does taper look like?
How does she respond?
You know, really focusing on short course yards.
I would say for the first time, you know, the sandpipers, of course, tapered and I don't even know what taper looks like for the sandpipers, but obviously this is going to be her first experience making a short course yards meet the focal point of the entire season.
And so you just never know.
Like, does it go well?
Does it not?
I would say her performances, you know, I at conference meets show that she will, but um, I just love Claire.
Again, I told you I wouldn't, I wouldn't get personal, but I love Claire and I I hope that you know her first NCAAs is is exactly what she wants.
I mean, and that brings me to Katie Grimes.
You know, I think when athletes go from living at home, having home cooked meals, having familiar surroundings, to then going to college, having to take classes, like there's so much transition.
And Katie Grimes is someone we just had her on the podcast in January, who talks about that.
And so she really struggled last year.
She didn't do what she wanted to do, she didn't make certain finals, and I'm very, very much looking forward to what she does this year.
She's still a little off of her best, but showing amazing signs of getting back to the top form of Katie Grimes' legendary two-time Olympian.
And so um, you know, she'll be one to watch obviously in the 400 IM and the 500 free in the mile.
It's cool to see, like knowing from Bisel, if she was here, she would talk about this of just how much Bisel struggled in her freshman and sophomore year adjusting to new training and environment.
And that seems to be exactly what Katie's doing.
And bless the swimmers that can just do it right out of the gate.
You know, it seems like Claire has been able to make that transition great, but everyone's different, everyone swims a different way and needs different things.
So those athletes are just a couple names to watch.
Of course, I could go on and on and on.
Lucy Bell is gonna be insane in the 200 breasts, Caroline Bricker is gonna be insane in the 200 Fly as well as the 400 IM.
I mean, I'm gonna miss people.
So if you're a fan of the athletes that I'm missing, I'm so sorry.
And of course, how could I leave out Tori Husk, Olympic champion?
Uh, she and uh Alex will go head to head in the 100 fly, so that'll be an incredible matchup.
But it's it's gonna be Fast and Furious, it's going to be streamed on ESPN, and I'm really hoping that you, the viewers, appreciate the the really hard work that ESPN is putting into this.
Keep an open mind, it'll get better.
Um, I know, and I guess I should leave you all with my final predictions, which is kind of again a scary thing to do alone, but I gotta go with UBA.
I think that they are going to win their sixth.
I think it's going to be an electric Saturday night.
The celebration is gonna be unparalleled to anything we've seen in the sport.
Um, I think it's I think Stan, I think Stanford.
I'm gonna go with Stanford for second, and then I think it's gonna be a big battle between Texas and Michigan for third.
I think Michigan is has a ton of momentum, and that matters.
And they've got some real studs even beyond Bella Sims.
I talked about Hannah Bellard, I'm got you know some incredible tour of freestyles, and so yeah, I'm gonna go UVA first, Stanford second, Texas third, Michigan fourth, and then it's gonna be Cal fifth, and then a draw.
I think I think it's gonna be as it stands, except for the fact that Stanford is gonna jump over Michigan.
So who knows?
I could be wrong, but those are just what the projections show, and I'm just wishing all the luck to these incredible athletes.
I will be screaming my head off if you guys have predictions or you have thoughts about anything.
It could be about the elimination, the B final, it could be about what athletes you're looking forward to cheering on.
Um, but I am just praying, praying, praying that this goes really well and the energy is unmatched.
And we will be back next week for the men's NCAA predictions and preview.
I will have my co-host back that time, and we will probably be overlooking the seven meter.
So thank you guys so much for watching.
Tune in, cheer your head off for the athletes, and we'll be back next week.