928: Week 7 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Lady World Podcast with your host JJ zacherathas j J zacher reefon What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in this episode nine twenty eight of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. We had some good and some bad with last week's Sleeper Show. On the bad side, Jalen Tolbert he didn't do that much and he only had a twelve percent target share. The Colts backfield was pretty bad. Roshawn Johnson didn't get it done, Daniel Jones was a bad top streamer, and Will Levis was a bad deep streamer, and Jalen Polkin Xavier Hutchinson were big bus. On the plus side, Romeo Dobbs found the end zone twice, Tyler Aljeer had a great game, Zach Ertz was a decent play, Michael Wilson found the end zone, Josh Downs had another great week, and Drake May was a good streaming choice. It was far from the best week of the season for the Sleeper Show, though, Let's hope that week's treats us better before getting into the sleepers. This week, though I wouldn't to let you know about a cool new game over on Underdog that you can play through October. Head to the promotions tab in the Underdog app and play Red Zone Rush. It's sort of like a dating app, but instead of swiping left or right on a potential significant other, you're swiping left or right on who you think we'll get into the end zone that week. And best of all, every Red Zone Rush entry will receive a boost. You can check out Red Zone Rush by heading to Underdog Fantasy dot Com or downloading the app. If you're new to Underdog, make sure you sign up with promo code Late Round. You'll get a nice deposit bonus. You'll also get access to my rest of season rankings for absolutely free. Just sign up, use promo code Late Round, make a deposit, and start playing. That's promo code Late Round. We'll kick off the show as we always do, by looking at players rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues who you might want to consider. This week, we'll start a quarterback, and we'll start with Drake May. Now, I talked up May on the fifteen Transaction Show earlier this week. Not only can he bring a little bit with his legs, he had thirty eight rushing yards last week, but he gets the Jags this week. The Patriots don't have a high implied team total, but the Jags have been horrific against quarterbacks this year. They're worse than the justin fantasy points a lot of the position. They've given up a top twelve performance to every quarterback they've faced, including Deshaun Watson. You couldn't ask for a much better spot for may Matthew Stafford works this week too. I do have some concern that the Rams is going to go with a run heavy approach against Vegas, especially if Cooper Cup isn't back. But for what it's worth, the Raiders have ranked eleventh this year and pass rate allowed in neutral game scripts, teams are throwing on them more than you might expect. Stafford hasn't been a great fantasy asset this year, but just a third of the Rams touchdowns have come via the pass. There's some regression heading Stafford's way, and in a game where he's facing a top five matchup and where the Rams have a top five implied team total on the slate, he makes plenty of sense out of their buy and I think that you could go back to Andy Dalton this week too. If the other two quarterbacks aren't available, the Panthers get Washington back. In the first few weeks of this season, the Commanders were an obvious opponent to target. Now they actually rank is just a slightly above average matchup and adjusted points allowed, but this game actually has the highest total on the slate. I do think that we could end up seeing a pretty run heavy script by both offenses, but the environment overall is pretty good. That's why Dalton's getting a shout. Moving on to running back, there's a chance that we don't see Remandre Stevenson again this week, and if that's the case, then Antonio Gibson makes for a good play. Last week, without Stevenson, Gibson handled sixty two percent of New England's running back rushes. He had a thirteen percent target shair. Now, I will say his route participation it was a little bit concerning. It was only thirty three percent. They were rotating some other backs in there too, But we're looking for any kind of volume here, and the Patriots get an advantageous matchup against the Jags, so Gibson could be okay. We've also got Tyler Aljeer in this Tier. I'm gonna go back to him. Why wouldn't I go back to him. He's now seen running back rush years of fifty three percent thirte fifty five percent over his last three games. He's not gonna give you a ton in the passing game. But the Falcons get a plus matchup against Seattle this week, and it's a game with one of the highest totals on the week. You could do worse than Tyler Aljeer. Now, I know the Vikings traded for cam Akers, and he may dig into ty Chandler's workload a little bit this week as long as Aaron Jones is out, and Aaron Jones could very easily miss this game. It's just that at the time of this recording, I don't know if he's in or out, But if he does miss the game, I do think that ty Chandler is the one A in that backfield. Now, it's not a great matchup. The Vikings get a Lions team that's been second best in the league this year against running backs by justin points allowed, but they've been pretty average and adjusted target share allowed to running backs. That's where Chandler can get his work done. So it's not a terrible play in a game with a healthy total at wide receiver. This week, I'm going to look closely at the Packers wide receivers. Romeo Dobbs is available in sixty percent of Yahoo leagues. Christian Watson is also available in over half of them, so they both qualify here. I like them more than usual this week for a few reasons. First, the Packers could play in a relatively high scoring game against the Texans. Second, the Texas have been much better against running max than they have against receivers this year. They're a bottom five team for running max by adjusted points allowed, but they're top ten for wide receivers, and part of that is because teams have an above average pass rate against them in neutral scripts. Third, Dontavian Wicks is banged up with a shoulder injury. He might still go this week, but even if he does, he may not see his normal snap rate, which means the Packers will have more stability at wide receiver with Dobbs, Watson, and Jaden Reid the environments there. The circumstance is right, Romeo Dobbs and Christian Watson are not terrible flex plays. Well, there's no more a Mario Cooper and Klear, So I guess Jerry Judy is their guy. Now is that going to bring fantasy football production? I mean this week, I think Jerry Judy is still more of like a wide receiver four. But the matchup's not terrible. Against Cincinnati, the Browns could see a pass heavy script, and Judy's already had a nineteen percent target share this year. We could see that rise by a handful of percentage points without Amari Cooper. So if you're desperate, he's not a bad volume play. And you could probably say the same thing about to Mario Douglas as I talked about on the fifteen Transactions episode. We've seen Douglas hit some big target shairs in three of his last four games as a slot operator. He gets a Jacksonville team this week that's allowed an above average target share to that area of the field, and the Jags are also just bad against wide receivers in general. They've given up more adjusted points to the position than any other team in football. So to Mario Douglas is in a good spot. Xavier Lagette went healthy has been running routes on over eighty percent of Andy Dalton's dropbacks, and that route data is from PFF. By the way, Now that didn't match to an awesome target share last week for Liget, but getting on the field and running routes, that's the first step needed for fantasy production. And there's a chance that we see more of that production this week. Like get gets a Washington team that's allowed the third most adjusted points to wide receivers this year, and like I said earlier, that game is a high game total. So with this one, you're associating a player getting reps, a young player who hypothetically should only get better. You're associating that with a high scoring affair. That's why Lagett works with Marvin Harrison Junior dealing with a concussion. There's a chance that he doesn't go this week. That would make Michael Wilson the team's top target. He said double DIGITPPR points in three of his last four. He's got a target share per game rate of twenty three percent during this time. He's also been above a ninety percent round participation in three of those four games. Now, the Cardinals get the Chargers this week. LA actually ranks first in the NFL and adjusted slot target share allowed to wide receivers, meaning teams are really attacking the slot against the Chargers. Doesn't benefit Wilson like it does their main slot guy, Greg Dortch. Dorch is actually rostered in just five percent of Yahoo leagues, but since I'm already talking about the Cardinals wide receivers, I'll shout him out here. We've seen Dorsch hit a fifteen percent target chair in three of his last four. It wouldn't be surprising if he gets well over that mark in this game, especially if Marvin Harrison Junior sidelined. So Wilson's probably a safer option without Harrison, but Greg Dortch has the matchup at tight end. I'm gonna go back to the weekly Trusty floor pick, and that's Kate otten Auden hasn't dropped the low a seventeen percent target shair in over a month, and he's still running routes at one of the best rates that you can find at tight end. The Bucks get the Ravens this week, that's a good setup for the passing attack. Teams are throwing the ball a lot against Baltimore. The Ravens have faced the highest pass rate in the league by far. In neutral game scripts, Tampa Bay ranks seventh in neutral script pass rate, so a seventeen percent target share could go a really long way in this game. We're also going to go back to zach ertz Ertz gets Carolina. I've already talked enough about that game. It could end up being high scoring on the season. He has almost an eighteen percent target share in this commander's offense, and he's running routes at a top ten rate. So if you need a higher floor option, you can go back to zach Ertz. I also think Hunter Henry and Colby Parkinson are in play. Henry gets a beatable Jags defense and saw his highest target share since Week two against the Texans last week. Colby Parkinson has been running routes at a really high rate, and he actually hasn't dipped below a twenty percent target share in three straight games. I'd like Parkinson more of Cooper Cup doesn't play, but I don't think that he's toast. If Cup is active, We're now looking at some deeper plays or players rostered in fewer than ten percent of Yahoo leagues. I don't have any quarterbacks in this tier, so we'll start with running backs. We'll go to Deernest Johnson There's no doubt that Johnson saw the work that he did last week because of the game script that Jacksonville faced, and I don't anticipate that kind of game script this week against New England. With that being said, Johnson was still Jacksonville's receiving back last week. He ran four times a number of routes as Tank Bigsby and New England's been a top ten team for running backs this year by justin points allowed. We also can never guarantee a game is gonna go in a certain direction. The Jags may be favorites, but it doesn't guarantee a victory. Now, this is all assuming that Travis Etn is not gonna play, and with him sidelined, I do like Tank Bigsby this week a lot more than Dearness Johnson, But as a deep sleeper, Dearness Johnson is fine. It sounds like Trey Sermon is banged up with a knee issue, and we know that Jonathan Taylor is dealing with an ankle. Tyler Goodson is the next man up. Goodson has seen about a third of the team's running back rushes with al Jonathan Taylor, and he's been a threat in the passing game with seven catches over his last two games. He'll be the start for Indy this week if those two running backs are out and the Colts get the Dolphins. Miami's a top five matchup for running backs this year by justin fans. He points allowed, so he's a good play if Taylor and Sermon are out. Savon Achman was signed to the practice squad yesterday, by the way, signaling that these injuries they are not nothing. So it sounds like Nick Chubb is going to be back this week, but we have no clue what kind of workload he's going to see. Deontay Foreman sort of the next man up on that depth chart because Jerome Ford is hurt, but he's more of a redundant piece to Chubb. He plays a similar type of role. Where I'm intrigued is with Pierre Strong, because Chubb's never been a massive pass catcher. Strong's coming off a game where he ran around on fifty three percent of Cleveland's dropbacks. Foreman was at fifteen percent. Foreman hasn't been above twenty percent all year. So the idea here is that Chubb doesn't see a huge workload. But even if he does, a negative game script could hit against the Bengals, and if that happens, Strong is the one who stands the benefit. At least is a deep play at wide receiver. Don't forget about Jordan Whittington. I think he's a great play within the context of being a sleeper if Cooper Cup does not play. But Whittington was getting more run before thereby, so even if Cup is in, he might be okay. And I say that because he's only run thirty six percent of his routes this year from the slot. I thought when Cooper Cup went down that Whittington was more of the direct replacement for Cup, that he was going to live in the slot. Cup was around the seventy percent range before he went down this year, and that just hasn't been the case. Whittington's also coming off games where he had a ninety seven percent and eighty five percent route participation, and his target share is over his last two twenty eight percent and twenty two percent. The matchup's fine. I talked about that with Matthew Stafford. So don't sleep on Jordan Whittington. I talked about this on the ten Trends episode yesterday, But Noah Brown is running as Washington's wide receiver two, and he finally had a big target share game in Week six with a twenty four percent target share. This week gets a plus matchup against Carolina and a potentially high scoring game, so he makes a lot of sense. Now. I've got to mention bub Means here as well, for all the reasons that I talked about on the fifteen Transactions episode. Without Chris Olave and Rashid Shahed Means as their top wide receiver, which could simply lead to a lot of volume, the matchup isn't great, but Patrick's Certan is likely out as well. I just don't have that confirmation right now, So bub Means he kind of works. And then there's one more wide receiver I got for you. It's deeper than the other ones that I've talked about. It's Sterling Shepherd. Shepherd has run just twenty five percent of his routes from the slot this year. Baltimore, their opponent this week, has seen the second lowest adjusted slot target share to wide receivers this season. To put that another way, teams are attacking the outside against Baltimore, and that's adjusted for strength of opponent. In Week six, Sterling Shepard ran around on eighty three percent of Tampa Bay's dropbacks that turned into an eleven percent target share. If he sees a slight bumping target share given the matchup this week, and that matchup is against a team that sees a lot of passing volume against them, then there's a for Sterling Sheppard as a deep sleeper. And then I've got two more tight ends for you. Juwan Johnson's one of them. That's just with all the Saints' injuries. He had a season high seventy five percent rawl participation in Week six, and while that didn't turn into a lot of production, he could be force fed more targets with the injuries in New Orleans right now. And then Grant cal Katara is the last one. Dallas Goddard is trending to be out this week, and cal kata stepped in last week and ran around on eighty nine percent of Phillies dropbacks. That's a really really high rate that resulted in a strong seventeen percent target share. The Eagles get the Giants this week, and New York has seen the tenth highest adjusted target share to tight ends this season, so he's a very interesting streamer now. In terms of defensive streamers this week, I mentioned Cincinnati on the fifteen Transactions episode. I think they're a great play against Cleveland. There's also Indianapolis against Miami, the Rams against the Raiders, and I think you could play the Patriots against the Jags. But overall, it's kind of a tough week for defensive streamers. Lastly, let's take a look at some pickup choices over an underdog this week based on this sleeper show. By using only players on this show, we hit on both of these last week. To start, we're gonna go higher than two hundred and four and a half passing yards for Drake May against Jacksonville. Teams against the Jags have seen seventy more passing yards compared to their season long averages. We'll also go higher than thirty four and a half receiving yards for Noah Brown. He's already been above that mark twice this year, and now he gets a plus matchup. So Drake May and Noah Brown that's who we're riding with this week. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Make sure you are by swishing for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, you know, follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB, and make sure you subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel. That's YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. Thanks for listening everyone. Tomorrow I got two more episodes for you. Get the Mailbag episode that drops early in the morning, and then another episode of Late Round Perspectives. I'll talk to you then