603: 10 Trends for Week 17

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Speaker 1: This is the Label Podcast with your host JJ Zachersa jj zacherreson.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zachareson, the editor in chief at fandle and at Number five dot com.

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Speaker 2: In this episode six hundred and three of.

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Speaker 1: The Late Round podcast and many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. Before we getting into the trends this week, don't forget about the FanDuel NFL High Low, a free to play fantasy football contest. All you have to do is build your scorecard with the teams that you think will score highest or lowest in four stack categories, and the closer you are to being spot on, the more points you'll get. Players with the most points each week split the prize pool, and a perfect scorecard will win the jackpot. Head over to fandle dot com today and play the FanDuel High Low for free. Eligibility destrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandle app for more details. Trend one this week is about the Rams backfield. Darryl Henderson was put on IR So so many. Michelle is looking like he's going to see a lot of work once again. This week, cam akers might actually get some action, but Michelle is likely to be a workhorse in Week seventeen, and he's been acting like that for the last four weeks. He's averaged a running back rush share per game of ninety percent during this timeframe, and he said a double digit percentage target share in two of those contests. Yes, Darryl Henderson has been out at times, but the reason I want to bring this trend up is because in Week sixteen, before Henderson got hurt, Michelle was dominating touches. Henderson saw his first touch in the fourth quarter. Up until that point, Michelle had already touched the ball eighteen times. The Rams really transitioned this backfield, and like I've alluded to on this show, over the last month, there were small reports saying that this could happen. It's why we've got to pay attention to what Beat reporters are saying, because at the end of the day, running back volume is driven by coaching decisions. You hope the running back is talented, so the coach has no other choice. But coaches are putting these guys in the field, and reporting can help us understand what's in their mind. We're now sixteen weeks into this Our sample sizes aren't massive because football is a small sample sized game, but they're not tiny either. And one of the crazier trends this year that hasn't been talked about enough is how pass heavy the Miami Dolphins have been on the year. Only Buffalo and Tampa Bay have higher pass rates when games are within a six point margin or within neutral game scripts. This is a huge reason Jalen Waddle is doing what he's doing. Specifically in PPR formats, they run such a boring offense, partially because the offensive line, and he's just gobbling up targets close to the line of scrimmage. It's similar to what we've seen with Deontay Johnson. It's not Waddle's fault, he's a stud, but it's interesting that Miami has been this pass heavy this year. Now, the next trend sort of reemphasizes the point that I just made with the previous trend. But there's a lot of talk on social media every week about two a tongue of Ioloa and his aggressiveness down the field. So let me throw some data at you. Among quarterbacks with one hundred and more attempts to A ranks thirty seventh of forty and fifteen plus air yard throw rate, So he's throwing at fifteen or more air yards at the fourth lowest rate in football, ahead of only Mike White, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton. Here's where things get interesting, though, If you look at completion rate on those passes, only Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert have had a higher completion rate on those throws. So, yes, he's throwing the ball down the field at a low rate, but he's completing those throws at a high rate.

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Speaker 2: That's at least somewhat of a good sign.

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Speaker 1: Amari Cooper finishes the wide receiver nine against Washington in Week sixteen. But let's break this down for a second. Cooper saw eleven targets in that game. That's just the third time this year that he's seen more than eight targets in a game. He also hit seventy receiving yards, just for the third time. His wide receiver nine finish is also just the third time that he's finished in the top twenty this season. For some perspective, thirty three wide receivers have had more top twenty performances than Amari Cooper this year. Some of those receivers include Kji Osbourne, Russell Gage, Kendrick Bourne, Darnell Mooney, and Terry McLaurin. It's been a rough season for Cooper, Hopefully he can finish strong this week. This Reshod Penny stretch has been awesome to see. He's now rushed for one hundred and thirty five or more yards and two of his last three games, and after seeing a not so great script in Week fifteen, he bounced back in Week sixteen with an eighty one percent running back rush share. He's now seen running back rush shares of sixty four percent, fifty eight percent, and eighty one percent.

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Speaker 2: Over these three games.

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Speaker 1: The receiving work isn't totally there, with just a five percent target share during this timeframe, but in a plus matchup this week against Detroit, Penny's in a good spot once again. Across the first eight games of the season in PPR formats, Najie Harris gave us six top ten performances and seven top twelve performances, so he gave US seven RB one performances over his first eight games. Over his last seven, he's had just one top ten performance and two top twelve performances, and it really comes down to touchdowns. He scored a touchdown in six of his eight games during that front half stretch, and in the game where he didn't score it was that contest where he had nineteen targets against the Bengals. He's found the end zone in just two games over his last seven. Now, considering the offense that he's in, it's not surprising that he wasn't able to maintain his early season pace. The good news is that his peripherals are still really, really good. Over his last seven he's averaged a running back rush share of eighty five percent per game and a target share per game of thirteen point seven percent. That song as good as the first eight games this year, but it's still elite. Since Week eight, the Houston Texans have given up just one top ten quarterback performance set seven games and just one top ten performance now. I sent a tweet out the other day making fun of myself, where I said, quote, I told you to draft Trey Lance because of his Week seventeen matchup against the Texans, and I got responses from people saying like, yeah, great matchup for Justin Herbert this past week, and others pointed out that the Texas have been good against quarterbacks over the second half of the year.

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Speaker 2: Well.

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Speaker 1: In total this year, Houston ranks thirteenth and ad justin Fantasy points.

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Speaker 2: A lot of quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: They're not like an ideal matchup, partially because of game script, but they're not some matchup to avoid.

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Speaker 2: And keep in mind who the.

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Speaker 1: Texans have faced during this stretch of seven games, Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Tannehill, Zach Wilson, Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Herbert. Of those seven quarterbacks, the two who finishes QB one's were Wilson and Herbert. Those are the two best quarterbacks on that list. Basically, what I'm saying here is the matchup is not necessarily scary. It's a pretty average to above average matchup overall. Trend eight is about Russell Wilson. I really hope we see the old Russ once again next year. I'm hoping that injury is why things have been a little bit rough. But what's more alarming is is rushing. In twenty twenty, Wilson averaged thirty two rushing yards per game. The year before that, it was twenty one, the year before that about twenty four, and the year before that almost thirty seven.

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Speaker 2: You get the idea.

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Speaker 1: This year, Wilson's averaging twelve point eight rushing yards per game. It'll be interesting to see if that's a talking point at all this offseason with Wilson, because Wilson will undoubtedly be a big talking point. Cordero Patterson is fortunate to have found the end zone twice over the last few games because things have not been very good. He's rushed for a grand total of thirty two yards over his last two on eighteen carries, and his running back rush share has dropped over his last three. He was hovering the sixty four to sixty eight percent range in weeks twelve and thirteen, and then from weeks fourteen through sixteen that's dropped about fifty four percent. I think he's still fine to throw in your fantasy lineup, but he's not the must start that he was earlier in the season. The final trend this week, and actually the final trend of the year, is about quarterback scoring. Quarterback scoring was up big time in twenty twenty, and I talked about that on this show during the offseason that regression was inevitable just given some of the reasons behind why quarterbacks might have been scoring more fantasy points. Last year, Top six quarterbacks and points per game average twenty three point eight points per contest, and that only includes players who played eight or more games. This year, top six quarterbacks are averaging twenty two point one points per game, so almost two points lower. If you look at top twelve quarterbacks, it's the same story. Last year, the points per game average among that group twenty two point two this year twenty point eight. Now scoring is down, but scoring is down for everyone, So good quarterbacks are still giving you somewhat of an edge, but overall scoring is definitely lower than in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: That's going to know.

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Speaker 1: For today's show, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and if follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly Sleeper Show.