Middle East Tensions Escalate; Wall Street 2024 Predictions
On today's podcast:
1) Iran dispatched a warship to the Red Sea after the US Navy destroyed three Houthi boats, a move that risks ratcheting up tensions and complicates Washington’s goal of securing a waterway that’s vital to global trade.
2) If the consensus on Wall Street is often wrong — and evidence from 2023 does little to dispel that notion — then in the year ahead investors are facing either the mother of all rallies or a selloff for the ages.
3) ASML Holding canceled shipments of some of its machines to China at the request of US President Joe Biden’s administration, weeks before export bans on the high-end chipmaking equipment came into effect, people familiar with the matter said.
Full Transcript:
Good morning. I maybe Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. We begin with oil rising to start the new year, Iran sending a warship to the Red Sea in an escalation of tensions in the region. The show of force comes after the US Navy destroyed three Hoothy boats which we're attempting to board a container on New Year's Day. Elizabeth Kendall is a Middle East specialist from Cambridge University and says the two are clearly interlinked. Aaron is puppeteering Hamas, the Hoothy's and other movements like Hezbollah in the Middle East, and the houthy slogan indeed includes the words death to Israel and a curse on the Jews, so it's very much aligned with Hamas's more militant and extreme war wing. Cambridge University's Elizabeth Kendall checking oil right now, Nie makes crude oil up more than two percent or a dollar forty nine now trading at seventy three dollars and thirteen cents a bit. Well, Amy, oil isn't the only thing on the move this morning. We're also seeing Bitcoin on the rise, following through on last year's massive rally, and we get more from Bloomberg Markets reporter Joe Easton. It is up another four percent at the moment, at the highest level since April sixth, above forty five thousand dollars for the first time in two years. This is due to the expectation of the direct investment from this ETF, so that is boosting sentiment and a lot of positivity. People looking for more technical levels for that one to keep going higher. And Bloomberg Joe Easton says Bitcoin has risen over twenty percent since has started December, as that January tenth deadline for the Securities and Exchange Commission to give its blessing for a spot bitcoin ETF dra us closer checking bitcoin right now, it's at forty five seven hundred dollars over in Europe's stocks are also higher to kick off the new trading year. Let's get the latest from Bloomberg Daybreak euro banker Stephen Carrol. Stephen, good morning, Amy and Karen. The tensions in the Red Sea are playing into the market narrative in Europe today. Shares and the shipping giant Marisk have risen after it stopped using that key trade route for forty eight hours following the weekend attack on one of its vessels. Higher oil prices are also helping to lift oil majors, making energy one of the best performing sectors on the Stock six hundred. More broadly, it's the Spanish and Italian markets which are out performing, boost it by a rise in bank shares. In London, Stephen Carrolt Bloomberg Radio, All right, Stephen, thank you all. Back here in the US, Wall Street returns to a holiday shortened week to kick off the new trading year, and we get a look ahead from Bloomberg Shirlie Pellett. The S and P five hundred index sits within striking distance of its first in two years. But a key challenge for markets is the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings. Michael Binger is the president of Gradient Investments. The economy I think is very resilient. Jobs are driving that, corporate profits are supposed to grow about ten eleven percent. And valuations, I mean they're not really cheap, but they're not super expensive either in the markets right now. Among this week's earnings reports, Constellation Brands and Walgreens Boots Alliance in New York Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio. Thank you, Charlie. In twenty twenty three, some of Wall Street's biggest names got it wrong with their predictions for how markets would perform, So will they fare better? In twenty twenty four, Bloomberg has compiled more than six hundred and fifty calls from strategists in Today's Big Take. Sam Potter is a senior markets editor for Bloomberg. Most strategists on Wall Street see the interest rate tykes of the past eighteen months to two years finally starting to bite economies generally around the world, stock slow, and that will kind of pre run a central bank pivot roundabout mid year. Bloomberg Senior Markets editor Sam Potter adds that strategists see the main risks to the markets inflation and the US election. Well. In corporate news, Amy Chinas BYD may have just overtaken Tesla as the world leader in EV sales. It's still more than five hundred twenty six in fully electric vehicles in the fourth quarter. Bloomberg's John Lewis more from Beijing when BYD Tesla, it'll do two things. I think that's going to put this company into the consciousness of people around the world in a way that that company has not had ever before. The number two thing it does is it really underscores how dominant a position China not only as a market, but as a country with lots of companies producing electric vehicles, how dominant a position China has in that industry now and Bloombergs John Lusa's Tesla is estimated to have delivered over four hundred and eighty three thousand in the fourth quarter alone. Speaking of China, President Xi Jinping has pledged to strengthen his country's economic recovery after a tough year. Bloomberg's Jenny Marsh has more from Hong Kong. This is Chi Jinping's new yas Eve's speech, and he normally uses it to so trumpet the achievements his nation's major in the year. And I think this speech really stood out for how candid he was being about these problems. It's the first time he's acknowledged that the struggle that twenty twenty three have brought. It also sort of underplayed in some ways the problems that are still lying ahead in twenty twenty four for the economy. And he didn't really have any sort of quick fixes for that. Bloomberg Jenny Mark says China is entering a pivotal period as policymakers try to boost growth, stabilize a crisis in the property market, and prevent deflation. Beijing is expected to target a growth goal of around five percent again in twenty twenty four. Meanwhile, Amy, the Biden administration has won another battle and its effort to try and slow Shina from building its own semiconductor industry. We get more with the Bloomberg's Ed Baxter, ASML Holding is canceled shipments of some of its machines to China at the Biden request. This week's before the export bands on the high end chip making came into effect, the Dutch manufacturer had licenses to ship three top of the line deep ultraviolet lithography machines, but before the deadline it decided to cancel the orders. The US and allies have been trying to block access to the technology. Ed Baxter, Bloomberg Radio, Thank you care in time now for a look at some of the other stories making news in New York and around the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Amy The death toll has now climbed to forty eight. After a magnitude seven point six earthquake struck Japan. The quake hit off the Noto Peninsula on Japan's northwest coast. This man at Tokyo resident and US national, was visiting to Yama when the quake hit. First. The trim had just done it very slowly, and everybody kind of left it off, you know, they thought, oh, this is this is kind of humorous, you know, on New Year's Day, and then then it is just a violent shape. The tremor was followed by hundreds of aftershocks. A plane is on fire right now on the runway of Tokyo's Hanada Airport. Authorities say a large burst of fire erupted from the side of a Japan Airlines plane as a taxi on the runway. All of the three hundred and seventy nine passengers and crew were said to be safely evacuated. Israel Supreme Court struck down a key component of Prime Minister Benjamin Etnaho's contentious judicious overhaul before the October seventh to Maas attack into southern Israel. The planned overhaul sparked months of mass protests threatened to trigger a constitutional crisis between the judicial and legislative branches of government. The FBI's Joint Terrorism Task Force is assisting police in Rochester, New York, to investigate a car crash that killed two people and injured five others outside of Performing Arts theater in the early hours of New Year's Day. The crash happened in front of the Kodak Center. It became a large scene due to a fire which had erupted as a result of the crash, and police also say several gas cans were found in and around the striking vehicle. Rochester Mayor Malik Evans I want to offer my condolences to those families, those individuals that lost their lives, and I asked the community to pay pray not only for those that have lost their lives, but also those that are injured. Terrorism investigators are trying to determine if this was just a car accident or something far worse. New York City's effort to stop migrant buses has resulted in the buses arriving instead in neighboring New Jersey. Over the weekend, buses from Texas and Louisiana began dropping off asylum seekers at several New Jersey transit stations. From there, the asylum seekers are believed to have taken trains to New York City. Edison, New Jersey mayor Sam Joshi says the buses are a major risk to health and security. The solution for me, as the mayor of Edison, is not to pawt it off to another mayor. Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg Aamy all right, Thank you, Michael, And we do bring the news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio, and now you can get the news on demand whenever you want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com plus Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now for the Sports Report, brought to you by Tri State Audi. For that, we bring in John stash Hour. Thanks Amy Kevilo. Terrific gains of the college football playoff semifinals overtime at the Rose Ball after Michigan tie to Alabama. The lad touchdown in ot Wolverines had the ball first out of the shotgun. Paura McGain This tiny poussi he's got the first out of more porm inside the five porm space is way across the goal line. Touch down Michigan seven. Take your touchdown run ESPN the call Michigan and stop BAMACB Jalen Milroe on a fourth down and one twenty seven to twenty JJ McCarthy through three TD passes, and then came the Sugar Bowl where Washington never trailed that at thirteen point lead been WITHY through the fourth quarter. Texas rallied had four chances to take the lead the final fifteen seconds, but ended the game with three incompletions on the Husky survive thirty seven thirty one. Their QB Michael Pennix Junior threw for four hundred and thirty yards. Championship game next Monday in Houston, both Michigan and Washington will go in fourteen and oh I Fiesta Ball, all Oregon forty five to six over a limitary vote next to five TD passes Sitters pull in Orlando, All Tennessee thirty five nothing over Iowa. LSU won the RELYA Quest in Tampa thirty five to thirty one over Wisconsin. Nicks happy to start the new year at the Garden after an ohen three road trip, they beat Minnesota, won twelve one to OH six. Julius Randall Port in thirty nine points. O g Onnobi made his next debut. He played thirty five minutes before found out. He scored seventeen in Toronto. RJ. Barrett and Emmanuel quickly debuted for their new team. Scored nineteen and fourteen points in a Raptors win over Cleveland. Outdoor Hockey in Seattle, crowd of forty seven thousand to see the Kraken shoutout Vegas three to nothing. John Stashwin Bricksport from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias Exam the Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Day Break. Good morning. I'm Amy Morris, and we are entering the first week of trading for twenty twenty four. As we do most investment outlooks from major banks and advisors are predicting the same middle of the road scenario for the coming year, an economic slow down, a central bank pivot, and a late year rebound. We're joined by Dennis Gartman, University of Akron and Dowment chairman and former publisher of the Gartman Letter to sort of set us straight on what we can expect for the coming year. Now, Dennis, the dollar closed out its worst year since twenty twenty, the S and P five hundred rose nine straight weeks. Are these trends bound to continue? I have my doubts to the latter trend will continue. I think stocks are extremely overbought. The market has risen on an anticipation of three, four, five six cuts in the overnight Fed Funds rate by the Federal Reserve Bank. I have my doubts as to whether that will occur. I think that the Fed is done raising the overnight Fed funds rate. Of that, there's no doubt. But whether they're going to cut five or six times, I think is very doubtful. I think we have to anticipate the fact that the Federal will delay any change in the overnight Fed funds rate lower to later this year. There's too much anticipation that the FEDERALI begin cutting the overnight funds rate by March. I think it'll be late in the summer, maybe early into the autumn before it happens, But we shall see. Time shall tell. I think stocks, however, are aggressively overbought, have been for some while, and it seems to me this looks very similar to what happened in twenty twenty one twenty twenty two, when we reach the higher the market on the opening day of twenty twenty one and then ended up having a rather substantive decline in prices. So time shall tell. We'll see. But too much anticipation of too much easier possible abilities on the part of the Fed that I don't think are going to happen. Now, we have a job's report coming out on Friday. What are you watching for in that and how that might impact it? Long ago I quit anticipating the over the employment rates because of the fact that we tend to see such huge numbers of revisions from one month to the next. But right now the market is anticipating an increase of about one hundred and seventy five to one hundred and eighty five thousand new jobs. We shall see if that if that occurs, but it's one of the most radically revised reports of the year. Every month the revisions are forty to fifty thousand plus or minus. So right now the market is anticipating one hundred and seventy five to one hundred eighty five thousand times. Shall tell Barkley is predicting a softest landing. Vanguard JP Morgan expecting a mild recession. But you know that's what everybody predicted for twenty twenty three as well. What's the difference now. I was one of the people that expected to see a recession in twenty twenty three, and clearly we have not had that. The market is now anticipating the softest, the best of all kind of soft landings imaginable. I have my doubts as to whether that will occur, but that's what the market anticipates, that's what the stock prices have anticipated, and that's what the world generally anticipates. Whether whether it happens or not is up for debate. I have my doubts. Seriously, though we are over extended to the upside. We were long overdue on a recession because of the FED tightening monetary policy over the course of the past several years, and there's always law long and reasonable legs between the monetary policy and economic activity. And I think we be recessionary before the end of the year, but I don't think it'll be a substantive one. I think it'll be a very quiet one. Time. However, again, as I've said too many times already this morning time show, tell Yeah, I was about to ask you what kind of recession you were looking for. You're expecting a softest landing. Yeah, yes, I think it'll be a very soft one, a very minor one. We've seen these types of recessions before. But I think it'll be a very a very quiet and not anything like we saw in seventy three, seventy four, not anything like we saw in eighty one, eighty two, not anything like we saw in nine. But it'll be a recession, and it'll be a quiet increase in over in the unemployment rate to probably four or five percent before it's done. What do you see with oil and gold in this new year? Gold is opening up very strongly right now, and I think gold wants to go from the lower left to the upper right. It's been a bull market for a while, and I think gold wants to go higher. Clearly, it's heading about twenty one thousand before before too long, I think it goes to twenty two or twenty three thousand before the year is out. I have been very bearish on crude oil for a while because the term structure has been overly overtly barished, with the front month leading on the downside and failing to gain upon the back moths when the market when the market rallies. But now all of a sudden, we're starting to see the term structure beginning to change a little bit, and everybody's watching what's happening in the Gulf of so As. I think that's only gonna get worse, not better. And for the first time in months, I'm actually not bearish of crude oil. I'm starting to turn bullish of a Timeshall tell, but this is the first time in months that I've actually been have not been bearish on the crude oil market because of the changing nature of the term structure. You are listening to Bloomberg Daybreak today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine sixty in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus listen coast to coat on the Bloomberg Business app, Sirius Xmbiheartradio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Amy Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak
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Good morning. I maybe Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. Here 0:00:05.680 --> 0:00:07.440 are the stories we're following today. 0:00:07.760 --> 0:00:10.280 We begin with oil rising to start the new year, 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:13.200 Iran sending a warship to the Red Sea in an 0:00:13.360 --> 0:00:16.280 escalation of tensions in the region. The show of force 0:00:16.320 --> 0:00:19.560 comes after the US Navy destroyed three Hoothy boats which 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:22.320 we're attempting to board a container on New Year's Day. 0:00:22.600 --> 0:00:26.279 Elizabeth Kendall is a Middle East specialist from Cambridge University 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:28.560 and says the two are clearly interlinked. 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:33.080 Aaron is puppeteering Hamas, the Hoothy's and other movements like 0:00:33.159 --> 0:00:36.880 Hezbollah in the Middle East, and the houthy slogan indeed 0:00:37.720 --> 0:00:41.760 includes the words death to Israel and a curse on 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:47.040 the Jews, so it's very much aligned with Hamas's more 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:49.160 militant and extreme war wing. 0:00:49.560 --> 0:00:53.560 Cambridge University's Elizabeth Kendall checking oil right now, Nie makes 0:00:53.600 --> 0:00:56.280 crude oil up more than two percent or a dollar 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:59.560 forty nine now trading at seventy three dollars and thirteen 0:00:59.560 --> 0:00:59.920 cents a bit. 0:01:01.120 --> 0:01:02.920 Well, Amy, oil isn't the only thing on the move 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:06.000 this morning. We're also seeing Bitcoin on the rise, following 0:01:06.040 --> 0:01:08.479 through on last year's massive rally, and we get more 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:10.640 from Bloomberg Markets reporter Joe Easton. 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:14.080 It is up another four percent at the moment, at 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:17.840 the highest level since April sixth, above forty five thousand 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:20.000 dollars for the first time in two years. This is 0:01:20.080 --> 0:01:25.200 due to the expectation of the direct investment from this ETF, 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:28.360 so that is boosting sentiment and a lot of positivity. 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:30.959 People looking for more technical levels for that one to 0:01:31.040 --> 0:01:31.920 keep going higher. 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:34.640 And Bloomberg Joe Easton says Bitcoin has risen over twenty 0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:38.040 percent since has started December, as that January tenth deadline 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:40.560 for the Securities and Exchange Commission to give its blessing 0:01:40.640 --> 0:01:44.080 for a spot bitcoin ETF dra us closer checking bitcoin 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:48.000 right now, it's at forty five seven hundred dollars. 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:50.840 Over in Europe's stocks are also higher to kick off 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:53.480 the new trading year. Let's get the latest from Bloomberg 0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:55.520 Daybreak euro banker Stephen Carrol. 0:01:55.560 --> 0:01:58.640 Stephen, good morning, Amy and Karen. The tensions in the 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:01.600 Red Sea are playing into the market narrative in Europe today. 0:02:01.760 --> 0:02:04.440 Shares and the shipping giant Marisk have risen after it 0:02:04.520 --> 0:02:07.160 stopped using that key trade route for forty eight hours 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:10.080 following the weekend attack on one of its vessels. Higher 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:13.120 oil prices are also helping to lift oil majors, making 0:02:13.240 --> 0:02:15.360 energy one of the best performing sectors on the Stock 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:18.800 six hundred. More broadly, it's the Spanish and Italian markets 0:02:18.800 --> 0:02:21.080 which are out performing, boost it by a rise in 0:02:21.120 --> 0:02:24.080 bank shares. In London, Stephen Carrolt Bloomberg Radio. 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:26.240 All right, Stephen, thank you all. Back here in the US, 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:29.480 Wall Street returns to a holiday shortened week to kick 0:02:29.520 --> 0:02:31.440 off the new trading year, and we get a look 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:33.280 ahead from Bloomberg Shirlie Pellett. 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:36.280 The S and P five hundred index sits within striking 0:02:36.360 --> 0:02:40.119 distance of its first in two years. But a key 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:43.120 challenge for markets is the outlook for the economy and 0:02:43.320 --> 0:02:48.000 corporate earnings. Michael Binger is the president of Gradient Investments. 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:51.760 The economy I think is very resilient. Jobs are driving that, 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:55.120 corporate profits are supposed to grow about ten eleven percent. 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:57.560 And valuations, I mean they're not really cheap, but they're 0:02:57.600 --> 0:02:59.880 not super expensive either in the markets right now. 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:04.800 Among this week's earnings reports, Constellation Brands and Walgreens Boots 0:03:04.800 --> 0:03:08.519 Alliance in New York Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio. 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:10.959 Thank you, Charlie. In twenty twenty three, some of Wall 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:13.880 Street's biggest names got it wrong with their predictions for 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:17.240 how markets would perform, So will they fare better? In 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:20.160 twenty twenty four, Bloomberg has compiled more than six hundred 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:23.200 and fifty calls from strategists in Today's Big Take. Sam 0:03:23.240 --> 0:03:25.680 Potter is a senior markets editor for Bloomberg. 0:03:26.200 --> 0:03:29.720 Most strategists on Wall Street see the interest rate tykes 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:32.680 of the past eighteen months to two years finally starting 0:03:32.720 --> 0:03:37.320 to bite economies generally around the world, stock slow, and 0:03:37.440 --> 0:03:40.240 that will kind of pre run a central bank pivot 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:41.520 roundabout mid year. 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:45.960 Bloomberg Senior Markets editor Sam Potter adds that strategists see 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:49.840 the main risks to the markets inflation and the US election. 0:03:50.480 --> 0:03:50.680 Well. 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:54.600 In corporate news, Amy Chinas BYD may have just overtaken 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:58.520 Tesla as the world leader in EV sales. It's still 0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:01.520 more than five hundred twenty six in fully electric vehicles 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:05.400 in the fourth quarter. Bloomberg's John Lewis more from Beijing when. 0:04:05.200 --> 0:04:09.320 BYD Tesla, it'll do two things. I think that's going 0:04:09.400 --> 0:04:12.880 to put this company into the consciousness of people around 0:04:12.880 --> 0:04:14.720 the world in a way that that company has not 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:17.680 had ever before. The number two thing it does is 0:04:17.720 --> 0:04:22.480 it really underscores how dominant a position China not only 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:24.800 as a market, but as a country with lots of 0:04:25.200 --> 0:04:28.960 companies producing electric vehicles, how dominant a position China has 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:30.159 in that industry. 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:32.960 Now and Bloombergs John Lusa's Tesla is estimated to have 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:35.479 delivered over four hundred and eighty three thousand in the 0:04:35.600 --> 0:04:36.760 fourth quarter alone. 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:41.120 Speaking of China, President Xi Jinping has pledged to strengthen 0:04:41.160 --> 0:04:45.159 his country's economic recovery after a tough year. Bloomberg's Jenny 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:46.600 Marsh has more from Hong Kong. 0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:49.000 This is Chi Jinping's new yas Eve's speech, and he 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:51.880 normally uses it to so trumpet the achievements his nation's 0:04:51.920 --> 0:04:54.200 major in the year. And I think this speech really 0:04:54.240 --> 0:04:57.880 stood out for how candid he was being about these problems. 0:04:57.920 --> 0:05:00.400 It's the first time he's acknowledged that the struggle that 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:03.680 twenty twenty three have brought. It also sort of underplayed 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:06.400 in some ways the problems that are still lying ahead 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:09.200 in twenty twenty four for the economy. And he didn't 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:11.120 really have any sort of quick fixes for that. 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:14.720 Bloomberg Jenny Mark says China is entering a pivotal period 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:18.080 as policymakers try to boost growth, stabilize a crisis in 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:21.680 the property market, and prevent deflation. Beijing is expected to 0:05:21.680 --> 0:05:24.640 target a growth goal of around five percent again in 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:25.520 twenty twenty four. 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:29.159 Meanwhile, Amy, the Biden administration has won another battle and 0:05:29.200 --> 0:05:32.040 its effort to try and slow Shina from building its 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:35.920 own semiconductor industry. We get more with the Bloomberg's. 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:38.800 Ed Baxter, ASML Holding is canceled shipments of some of 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:42.360 its machines to China at the Biden request. This week's 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:45.200 before the export bands on the high end chip making 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:48.880 came into effect, the Dutch manufacturer had licenses to ship 0:05:48.920 --> 0:05:53.159 three top of the line deep ultraviolet lithography machines, but 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:57.080 before the deadline it decided to cancel the orders. The 0:05:57.240 --> 0:05:59.800 US and allies have been trying to block access to 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:06.400 the technology. Ed Baxter, Bloomberg Radio, Thank. 0:06:06.240 --> 0:06:07.719 You care in time now for a look at some 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:09.880 of the other stories making news in New York and 0:06:09.960 --> 0:06:12.680 around the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's 0:06:12.839 --> 0:06:14.640 Michael bar Good morning, Michael. 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:16.840 Good morning, Amy The death toll has now climbed to 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:21.080 forty eight. After a magnitude seven point six earthquake struck Japan. 0:06:21.600 --> 0:06:25.240 The quake hit off the Noto Peninsula on Japan's northwest coast. 0:06:25.600 --> 0:06:28.799 This man at Tokyo resident and US national, was visiting 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:30.440 to Yama when the quake hit. 0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:33.640 First. The trim had just done it very slowly, and 0:06:34.440 --> 0:06:37.000 everybody kind of left it off, you know, they thought, oh, 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:40.640 this is this is kind of humorous, you know, on 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:44.159 New Year's Day, and then then it is just a 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:45.240 violent shape. 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:48.960 The tremor was followed by hundreds of aftershocks. A plane 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:51.800 is on fire right now on the runway of Tokyo's 0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:55.960 Hanada Airport. Authorities say a large burst of fire erupted 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:58.960 from the side of a Japan Airlines plane as a 0:06:59.120 --> 0:07:01.840 taxi on the runway. All of the three hundred and 0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:05.320 seventy nine passengers and crew were said to be safely evacuated. 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:08.599 Israel Supreme Court struck down a key component of Prime 0:07:08.640 --> 0:07:13.880 Minister Benjamin Etnaho's contentious judicious overhaul before the October seventh 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:17.480 to Maas attack into southern Israel. The planned overhaul sparked 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:22.040 months of mass protests threatened to trigger a constitutional crisis 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:26.360 between the judicial and legislative branches of government. The FBI's 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:30.560 Joint Terrorism Task Force is assisting police in Rochester, New York, 0:07:30.800 --> 0:07:33.680 to investigate a car crash that killed two people and 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:37.000 injured five others outside of Performing Arts theater in the 0:07:37.040 --> 0:07:39.880 early hours of New Year's Day. The crash happened in 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:42.600 front of the Kodak Center. It became a large scene 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:45.400 due to a fire which had erupted as a result 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:49.080 of the crash, and police also say several gas cans 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:53.240 were found in and around the striking vehicle. Rochester Mayor 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:54.960 Malik Evans I. 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:58.080 Want to offer my condolences to those families, those individuals 0:07:58.080 --> 0:08:02.240 that lost their lives, and I asked the community to 0:08:02.280 --> 0:08:04.840 pay pray not only for those that have lost their lives, 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:06.080 but also those that are injured. 0:08:06.760 --> 0:08:09.800 Terrorism investigators are trying to determine if this was just 0:08:09.880 --> 0:08:13.240 a car accident or something far worse. New York City's 0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:16.640 effort to stop migrant buses has resulted in the buses 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:20.800 arriving instead in neighboring New Jersey. Over the weekend, buses 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:24.360 from Texas and Louisiana began dropping off asylum seekers at 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:28.120 several New Jersey transit stations. From there, the asylum seekers 0:08:28.160 --> 0:08:31.480 are believed to have taken trains to New York City. Edison, 0:08:31.520 --> 0:08:35.000 New Jersey mayor Sam Joshi says the buses are a 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:36.880 major risk to health and security. 0:08:37.160 --> 0:08:40.400 The solution for me, as the mayor of Edison, is 0:08:40.440 --> 0:08:42.840 not to pawt it off to another mayor. 0:08:43.480 --> 0:08:46.040 Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:48.680 want it with the Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr, 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:50.640 and this is Bloomberg. 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:52.400 Aamy all right, Thank you, Michael, And we do bring 0:08:52.400 --> 0:08:54.720 the news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio, and 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:57.680 now you can get the news on demand whenever you 0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:00.480 want it. Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:03.439 latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:06.679 on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg 0:09:06.720 --> 0:09:09.880 News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:18.480 plus Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:20.480 Time now for the Sports Report, brought to you by 0:09:20.480 --> 0:09:22.920 Tri State Audi. For that, we bring in John stash Hour. 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:25.960 Thanks Amy Kevilo. Terrific gains of the college football playoff 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:29.520 semifinals overtime at the Rose Ball after Michigan tie to Alabama. 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:33.840 The lad touchdown in ot Wolverines had the ball first out. 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:37.360 Of the shotgun. Paura McGain This tiny poussi. 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:39.560 He's got the first out of more porm inside the five. 0:09:39.600 --> 0:09:40.480 Porm space is. 0:09:40.480 --> 0:09:42.359 Way across the goal line. 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:46.400 Touch down Michigan seven. 0:09:46.600 --> 0:09:48.760 Take your touchdown. 0:09:48.240 --> 0:09:51.760 Run ESPN the call Michigan and stop BAMACB Jalen Milroe 0:09:51.760 --> 0:09:54.280 on a fourth down and one twenty seven to twenty 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:56.880 JJ McCarthy through three TD passes, and then came the 0:09:56.920 --> 0:09:59.880 Sugar Bowl where Washington never trailed that at thirteen point 0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:02.760 lead been WITHY through the fourth quarter. Texas rallied had 0:10:02.800 --> 0:10:05.640 four chances to take the lead the final fifteen seconds, 0:10:05.640 --> 0:10:07.840 but ended the game with three incompletions on the Husky 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:11.760 survive thirty seven thirty one. Their QB Michael Pennix Junior 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:15.000 threw for four hundred and thirty yards. Championship game next 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:17.600 Monday in Houston, both Michigan and Washington will go in 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:21.120 fourteen and oh I Fiesta Ball, all Oregon forty five 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:23.280 to six over a limitary vote next to five TD 0:10:23.320 --> 0:10:26.720 passes Sitters pull in Orlando, All Tennessee thirty five nothing 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:29.480 over Iowa. LSU won the RELYA Quest in Tampa thirty 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:32.560 five to thirty one over Wisconsin. Nicks happy to start 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:34.319 the new year at the Garden after an ohen three 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:37.400 road trip, they beat Minnesota, won twelve one to OH six. 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:40.760 Julius Randall Port in thirty nine points. O g Onnobi 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:43.120 made his next debut. He played thirty five minutes before 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:45.920 found out. He scored seventeen in Toronto. 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:46.280 RJ. 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:49.840 Barrett and Emmanuel quickly debuted for their new team. Scored 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:53.400 nineteen and fourteen points in a Raptors win over Cleveland. 0:10:53.440 --> 0:10:56.640 Outdoor Hockey in Seattle, crowd of forty seven thousand to 0:10:56.760 --> 0:11:01.200 see the Kraken shoutout Vegas three to nothing. John Stashwin Bricksport. 0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:06.080 From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, 0:11:06.400 --> 0:11:11.040 Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias Exam the Bloomberg 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:15.240 Business app in Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Day Break. 0:11:17.080 --> 0:11:17.600 Good morning. 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:20.440 I'm Amy Morris, and we are entering the first week 0:11:20.480 --> 0:11:23.640 of trading for twenty twenty four. As we do most 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:27.400 investment outlooks from major banks and advisors are predicting the 0:11:27.440 --> 0:11:30.200 same middle of the road scenario for the coming year, 0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:33.880 an economic slow down, a central bank pivot, and a 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:37.800 late year rebound. We're joined by Dennis Gartman, University of 0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:40.640 Akron and Dowment chairman and former publisher of the Gartman 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:42.720 Letter to sort of set us straight on what we 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:45.200 can expect for the coming year. Now, Dennis, the dollar 0:11:45.280 --> 0:11:47.959 closed out its worst year since twenty twenty, the S 0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:50.920 and P five hundred rose nine straight weeks. Are these 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:53.400 trends bound to continue? 0:11:54.080 --> 0:11:57.320 I have my doubts to the latter trend will continue. 0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:01.400 I think stocks are extremely overbought. The market has risen 0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:05.120 on an anticipation of three, four, five six cuts in 0:12:05.160 --> 0:12:07.640 the overnight Fed Funds rate by the Federal Reserve Bank. 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:09.920 I have my doubts as to whether that will occur. 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:12.480 I think that the Fed is done raising the overnight 0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:15.200 Fed funds rate. Of that, there's no doubt. But whether 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:17.600 they're going to cut five or six times, I think 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:20.280 is very doubtful. I think we have to anticipate the 0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:23.319 fact that the Federal will delay any change in the 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:26.800 overnight Fed funds rate lower to later this year. There's 0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:29.640 too much anticipation that the FEDERALI begin cutting the overnight 0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:31.720 funds rate by March. I think it'll be late in 0:12:31.760 --> 0:12:35.000 the summer, maybe early into the autumn before it happens, 0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:38.000 But we shall see. Time shall tell. I think stocks, however, 0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:41.640 are aggressively overbought, have been for some while, and it 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:44.040 seems to me this looks very similar to what happened 0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:46.600 in twenty twenty one twenty twenty two, when we reach 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:49.800 the higher the market on the opening day of twenty 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:53.119 twenty one and then ended up having a rather substantive 0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:56.240 decline in prices. So time shall tell. We'll see. But 0:12:56.320 --> 0:13:00.440 too much anticipation of too much easier possible abilities on 0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:01.679 the part of the Fed that I don't think are 0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:02.199 going to happen. 0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:05.000 Now, we have a job's report coming out on Friday. 0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:07.040 What are you watching for in that and how that 0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:07.840 might impact it? 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:14.080 Long ago I quit anticipating the over the employment rates 0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:17.480 because of the fact that we tend to see such 0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:20.400 huge numbers of revisions from one month to the next. 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:22.959 But right now the market is anticipating an increase of 0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:24.559 about one hundred and seventy five to one hundred and 0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:27.360 eighty five thousand new jobs. We shall see if that 0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:31.040 if that occurs, but it's one of the most radically 0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:35.199 revised reports of the year. Every month the revisions are 0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:38.079 forty to fifty thousand plus or minus. So right now 0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:39.880 the market is anticipating one hundred and seventy five to 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:41.280 one hundred eighty five thousand times. 0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:45.120 Shall tell Barkley is predicting a softest landing. Vanguard JP 0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:48.800 Morgan expecting a mild recession. But you know that's what 0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:51.600 everybody predicted for twenty twenty three as well. What's the 0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:52.400 difference now. 0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:55.719 I was one of the people that expected to see 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:58.680 a recession in twenty twenty three, and clearly we have 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:02.280 not had that. The market is now anticipating the softest, 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:06.880 the best of all kind of soft landings imaginable. I 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:08.840 have my doubts as to whether that will occur, but 0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:12.120 that's what the market anticipates, that's what the stock prices 0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:16.040 have anticipated, and that's what the world generally anticipates. Whether 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:18.560 whether it happens or not is up for debate. I 0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:21.840 have my doubts. Seriously, though we are over extended to 0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:25.440 the upside. We were long overdue on a recession because 0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:27.640 of the FED tightening monetary policy over the course of 0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:32.600 the past several years, and there's always law long and 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:37.960 reasonable legs between the monetary policy and economic activity. And 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:40.800 I think we be recessionary before the end of the year, 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:42.400 but I don't think it'll be a substantive one. I 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:44.840 think it'll be a very quiet one. Time. However, again, 0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:47.120 as I've said too many times already this morning time show, 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:48.360 tell Yeah, I. 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:50.160 Was about to ask you what kind of recession you 0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:52.400 were looking for. You're expecting a softest landing. 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:55.040 Yeah, yes, I think it'll be a very soft one, 0:14:55.080 --> 0:14:58.800 a very minor one. We've seen these types of recessions before. 0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.360 But I think it'll be a very a very quiet 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:05.520 and not anything like we saw in seventy three, seventy four, 0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:07.400 not anything like we saw in eighty one, eighty two, 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:11.800 not anything like we saw in nine. But it'll be 0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:14.560 a recession, and it'll be a quiet increase in over 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:18.400 in the unemployment rate to probably four or five percent 0:15:18.440 --> 0:15:19.200 before it's done. 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:21.280 What do you see with oil and gold in this 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:21.800 new year? 0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:25.680 Gold is opening up very strongly right now, and I 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:27.280 think gold wants to go from the lower left to 0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:29.360 the upper right. It's been a bull market for a while, 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:31.600 and I think gold wants to go higher. Clearly, it's 0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:36.320 heading about twenty one thousand before before too long, I 0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:38.160 think it goes to twenty two or twenty three thousand 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:41.240 before the year is out. I have been very bearish 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:44.000 on crude oil for a while because the term structure 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:48.080 has been overly overtly barished, with the front month leading 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:51.600 on the downside and failing to gain upon the back 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:54.120 moths when the market when the market rallies. But now 0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:55.600 all of a sudden, we're starting to see the term 0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:58.880 structure beginning to change a little bit, and everybody's watching 0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:01.160 what's happening in the Gulf of so As. I think 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:03.600 that's only gonna get worse, not better. And for the 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:06.800 first time in months, I'm actually not bearish of crude oil. 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:09.080 I'm starting to turn bullish of a Timeshall tell, but 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:11.240 this is the first time in months that I've actually 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:14.440 been have not been bearish on the crude oil market 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:16.480 because of the changing nature of the term structure. 0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:21.600 You are listening to Bloomberg Daybreak today, your morning brief 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:24.840 on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington 0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:26.040 and beyond. 0:16:25.720 --> 0:16:28.480 Look for us on your podcast feed at six am 0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:32.240 Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:33.520 get your podcasts. 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:37.120 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:40.320 am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:43.560 in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, 0:16:43.920 --> 0:16:47.440 Bloomberg one oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:49.280 sixty in San Francisco. 0:16:49.960 --> 0:16:53.120 Our flagship New York station is also available on your 0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:58.240 Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:01.560 Plus listen coast to coat on the Bloomberg Business app, 0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:07.680 Sirius Xmbiheartradio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Amy Morris. 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:10.879 And I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:13.520 all the news you need to start your day right 0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:15.120 here on Bloomberg Daybreak