Byron Buxton and 2026 Draft as Hot Stove Heats Up

00:00:21
Speaker 1: Welcome one and all to the Hammer Territory Podcast.

00:00:24
Speaker 2: My name is Sean Coleman.

00:00:25
Speaker 3: Hope, wherever you are and where ever you are listening, you yes you, yes, you, your friends, your family, everybody is doing well, Hope anybody listening to Everybody in Braves Country had a great Thanksgiving.

00:00:38
Speaker 2: It's good to be back with you once again.

00:00:41
Speaker 1: Like I say this, it's even a bit better to be back with one of the best when it comes to breaking down the Braves Good Friend podcast partner Stephen Tolbert.

00:00:48
Speaker 2: Stephen, good to see you against sir. Always glad to do these with you.

00:00:53
Speaker 4: What's up, buddy, It's been a minute. We were just talking offline. It's been over a week since we've done one of these together. And I say during the season that never happens. We do two or three a week, and so yeah, we obviously you know, the podcast took a little bit of a break for Thanksgiving. We had the show with Scott and Carlos that ran I think the day before Thanksgiving. Scott and Bright did a show on Sunday. So yeah, we're jumping back in and not a moment too soon, because we got some we got some very interesting stuff. That dropped this morning, and I was tweeting about it earlier today, and it was the buzz online all day to day people you know, throwing out takes, throwing out trades, and so yeah, we're gonna jump right into this. This Byron Buxton stuff that dropped about ten am this morning.

00:01:40
Speaker 1: So let's let's give a bit, let's set the stage a bit with a little bit of a timeline, you know, so you go back to the twenty twenty five trade deadline, and it was a bit of a boring one for the Braves, but perhaps the most intriguing interesting news came out. I believe it was Dan Hayes, who covers the athletic for the Twins. He mentioned that he wrote a story about the fact that some teams came coming about Byron Buxton, who has a full no trade clause with the Twins. And this was in the midst of Byron Buxton having one of the best seasons of his career, one of the best healthiest seasons he's had in quite a while. And he mentioned that the Braves and the Mets were two of the teams that really stood out as having interest in Buxton. But he also pointed out Buxton loves Minnesota, and it was very unlikely, almost seemed impossible that he was going to wave his no trade clause, but he was at least intriguing to see that was a target for the Braves. So we come in too the off season and we start to, you know, kind of speculate, you know, Okay, could we revisit Byron Buxton. Braves coaching staff gets a big turnover. A couple of notable names on the coaching staff have ties.

00:02:54
Speaker 2: To Byron Buxton.

00:02:55
Speaker 1: Don't want to you know, blow that out of proportion or anything, but just something notable. And then we started to hear rumblings, you know, Byron Buxton could be a bit more open to waving that no trade clause depending on what the Twins do. And then today Jeff Passon and Kyle McDaniel of ESPN released their top twenty five trade candidates and Byron Buxton is number five on the list. Now, the thing that stood out to me, Stephen was this was number one Byron Buxton. The first thing Jeff Passon mentioned, Byron Buxton would be willing to trade to waive his no trade clause in the right situation, especially if the Twins quote unquote, we're going to trade away some of their headliners. We're going to continue to go into a full rebuild. At that point, Buxton would be willing.

00:03:37
Speaker 2: To waive his no trade clause.

00:03:39
Speaker 1: But even more eye opening to me is that he specifically mentioned or hinted at the Braves in his opening sentence about Byron Buxton. And the only player of that top twenty five list that the Braves are connected to is Byron Buxton. And more importantly than anything, Jeff Passon didn't go to the links he did with Buxton and the Braves with any other player, any other team. That tells me there's smoke, that tells me that it's understood that this is just more than a pipe dream or speculation or something like that they're likely is proof of real interest. And that's where the most intrigued comes from from, the most intriguing support we've gotten so far in this offseason.

00:04:28
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, this is this is as smoky as you get for the Braves. You know, we don't get a lot of this. You know, you get the random Twitter user, you know, making up fake trades and people respond to that. But this is not that, This is not like chop till you drop sixty nine seven seven five seven six, coming up with a fake trade and everybody responding to it. This is Jeff Passen pointing out specifically that Byron Buxton would wave his no trade clause to go to Atlanta, mentioning Atlanta in the first sentence of his little excerpt on Buxton. Buxton is a Georgia native. I think most people know that by now, on top of the fact that there was already smoke when the Athletic, like you mentioned Dan Hayes of the Athletic, who covers The Twins for the Athletic right after the trade deadline mentioned the Braves called the Twins about Byron Buxton, and at the time Buxton gave a very kind of no nonsense answer about I am not waving my no trade clause. People remember, like it was a very very loud and clear no, I'm not I love in Minnesota. I'm not waving my no trade clause. And you know, when you have a full no trade clause, that can really kind of be the beginning and the end of the conversation. If you have no interest in waving your no trade clause, then that's it. That's, you know, there's nothing else to talk about, and so in my brain that has always been the number one in him to a deal for Barton Buckston is the fact that he doesn't want to leave Minnesota. That's what made today's news so notable and so interesting, not only that he's willing to do it, but that the Braves were directly connected by the number one insider in the entire sport, Jeff Passon of ESPN, who breaks more news and is more connected than anybody. So this is a fascinating, fascinating conversation. I you know, I tweeted this out at like ten a nine am something like that, and all day I've just been watching my mentions, just listening to the conversations people are having about the pros of Byron Buckston, the cons of Byron Buckston, how much they think it will cost, like and there's some wild opinions. Some people have some really out of left field opinion. We're gonna talk about it all. The thing I want to start with, and we'll get to the we'll get to the injury stuff, and we'll get to the cost. The thing I want to start with first, though, is that you do not you are not given the opportunity to trade for a talent like Byron Buxton. Basically, ever, these guys do not get traded. This is the Ronald 'cuney junior of the Minnesota Twins. And just think, if you're a Braves fan, how willing would you be to trade? Would you be trading ronaldal cune junior at any point? Is that? This is that level of talent. This is like a Superstar five tool. Yes, there's injury concerns and we'll get to those in a minute, but at the very beginning of this conversation, I want to highlight this point. You do not get the opportunity to trade for players of this caliber. Basically, ever, guys like this don't get traded. And if there is a real possibility that the Braves can pull this off, they need to be hyper aggressive about it because this is the kind of impact bat that the Braves desperately need in their lineup in my opinion. And then we've talked about it all offseason, we talked about during the season. I thought, I think people are glossing over the holes in the offense too much. I know the team needs pitching, I know the team needs bullpen. But in my opinion, what we've watched the last two years when everyone's healthy is not good enough. And somewhere along the way, the offense has gotten kind of ignored in all of these conversations about what the Brave should do this offseason, and I think the offense should be much higher on the list. And Byron Buxton is a type of hitter that changes your lineup. He is a dynamic top of the order, middle of the order, wherever you want to put him. Guy can hit forty homers. You know, he's just a monster. He's like a one thirty WRC plus hitter. You do not get those guys. Those guys do not become available very often. And so yes, we're gonna get into the injury stuff. We're definitely gonna get into how much it's gonna cost, because some people are way off on that. But at the top, the headline is guys at his level don't get trip very often. If you have a chance to do it, you need to be.

00:09:03
Speaker 1: Aggressive one thousand percent. And again I want to hit on I don't think that it's talked about enough. When you when you see a guy who just is so purely naturally talented. Like we see what Ronald d'acuna Junior does and how he steals as talented as he is despite the injuries that he has had, Byron Buxton is at that level like that needs to be said, despite all the injuries that he has had. Steven Here's where he was at the age of thirty one this past year, ninetieth percentile or above according to Baseball sabot and batting run value. Batting that base running value, expected slugging average, exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard hit percentage. He was eighty eight percent on bat speed, one hundred percent centile in sprint speed. You want to talk about top one percent athlete that has played baseball in history, and even more rare an athlete who can put it all into effective function as a baseball player. I'm not trying to say that Byron Buckson is a top ten player of all time. He is one of the ten most naturally talented offensive players position players we've seen, maybe in our generation, I will go that far. He is on an unbelievable natural talent and the fact that it is still on so much display right now despite how injured he's been in the recent past that's what is amazing. And I mentioned all that to say this. I know Alexanthopolis can talk about needing to fill the shortstop position. I know that Alex and Thoppolis can talk about needing to get a starting pitcher, the bullpen, all that different stuff. We saw yesterday the Zip's projections come out for the Braves and they reflected what the simple truth, the unfortunate truth is over the past two years, injuries and underperformance have been the two big things that have made us not get to expectations the past two years. It's been injuries for the pitching staff, it's been underperformance for the offense. So Alex and Dopplas can talk about pitching all he wants, and I think he adds a notable name to the pitching staff. The pitching staff needs depth, the offense needs a difference maker, and that's why you get aggressive for Byron Buxton, especially especially when you have a situation. I know an outfield. Adding an outfielder may not seem like the most conventional idea for the Braves, but when you add that type of talent to an outfield that already could use an extra talent.

00:11:45
Speaker 2: Like that to really give guys, the ability.

00:11:48
Speaker 1: To remain fresh, remain healthy. It really is a good situation and more than anything, for three years and forty five million, it's an excellent ad. You want to talk about a difference maker, you're not going to have an opportunity to get a better one than Byron Buckston.

00:12:04
Speaker 4: Yeah, so let's go through the pros real quick. We'll go through I promise we're gonna go through the cons. We're gonna talk about the injuries. I know people will want to talk about that, but let's go through the pros real quick.

00:12:14
Speaker 2: So, first and.

00:12:15
Speaker 4: Foremost, Byron Buxton is a superstar player. We just covered that MVP level hitter, runner, fielder. He's awesome. He can play center field, all right, he can play center field. And this is important because assuming you still have Michael Harris on the team, assuming Michael Harris is not part of the return again, and we'll talk about the return at the end of this segment, you would have Ronald Counter Junior, Michael Harris, Jerks from Pro Far, and Byron Buxton all in the same outfit. And people might think, well, that's too many when you have the DH that's a perfect amount. When you have a DH. That's the absolutely, this is what I wanted the Braves to do. For the last six months. We've talked about it. I've lost count him times we talked about I want the Braves to add a dynamic outfielder that can rotate left field, right field, centerfield, and DH. So you'd have four outfielders for four spots left field, right field, centerfield, and DH and keep everybody healthy. And Byron Buckston included in that. There's nobody that the Braves need to try to keep healthy more than Ronald Knnue Jr. And if you add Byron Buckston to their team, there's no two players you need to try to keep healthy more than Ronald Kannue Junr. And Byron Buckston. And the best way to do that is to use the DH and rotate these players in and out of playing the field. That's even more important because right now the Braves don't have a DH. Like I know Sean Murphy and Trick Baldwin. That's kind of considered one of DH wants the catcher, the other one will catch when the other one DH is But we don't know what Sean Murphy is gonna be like next year. The guy just had hip surgery. Also, he's been extremely inconsistent with the bat. I would much rather have just a normal two catcher setup where one of them sits and the other one catches and let the outfielders dh. I think that's a much better use of that position on the offensive side of the ball. And this is what Sean was just talking about. What are you gonna get from Ozzie Alby's next year? What are you gonna get from Michael Harris next year? Are they actually gonna go get a real shortstop or is Mauricio Debond gonna be the shortstop. If that's the case, you know what you're gonna get out a shortstop, which is nothing good, at least offensively. What are you gonna get out of Austin Riley next year? We don't know. I have no idea. This is gonna piss some people off, but I'm gonna say it anyways. We don't know what we're gonna get out of Drake Baldwin next year. There's been plenty of guys who have awesome rookie years and then come in year two and struggle. The term sophomore slump came from somewhere. It's because it happens. Well, yeah, it happens all the time, where your rookie year is better than your sophomore year and you come back down to earth a little bit. It would not, it should not stun anybody. If that happens to Drake Baldwin next year, that does mean he's a bad player. It's just now. It happens all the time. The only two hitters on the team I am one hundred percent confident, if healthy, are awesome right now are Ronald Lacuna Junior in medals. That's it. Those are the only two players I am one hundred percent confident if they're healthy, they're gonna hit. That's not enough. There's just too many questions. And so if you're talking about the pros of Byron Buxton, the contract which you just mentioned, fifteen million dollars a year is dirt cheap for his talent, dirt cheap. That's crazy. Three years of team control. He can he can dh he can play left field, he can play center field, he could play right field. You know, if it's a tough lefty on the mound, you want to give Michael Harris a day off, you could have a Kunya Buxton and profar in the lineup and Sid Harris. It's a beautiful setup. It's a it's an ideal setup in my opinion. And then you've added a superstar. You've you've you've now allowed yourself to have Mauricio Dubon be the shortstop because you added a superstar bat somewhere else in the lineup, right, it gives you more flexibility to not maybe have a great shortstop because you added an MVP level bat to the top. So yes, in the next set, we're gonna talk about the cons. I'm gonna talk about the injuries, We're gonna talk about the cost, but I want to highlight the pros first. Byron Buckson makes a ton of sense for this roster top to bottom, on defense, d H up and down the lineup help answering some unknowns about what the lineup is going to be. It answers a lot of questions.

00:16:37
Speaker 1: And here's the other big thing. Talent wise, he adds more speed. You want to talk about a potential healthy Ronald Cuna Junior and Byron Buckson at the top of the order.

00:16:47
Speaker 4: That's crazy to think about that. Think about Ronald Coone Junior and Barron Buckson as you're one and two.

00:16:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's crazy.

00:16:54
Speaker 1: Yeah, but again, in a vacuum, it makes a lot of sense. But the real world, a league baseball, it doesn't exist in a vacuum, and there are reasons why. As awesome as it would be, and for that reason, as aggressive as the brain should be to go make it happen, there also are some reasons to be a bit cautious. We'll discuss that, the coms, the cults, the injuries, and ideas of potentially expanding it beyond Yron Buckston. We'll discuss that in just a moment after a word from our partners KP.

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00:18:27
Speaker 2: So Steven.

00:18:28
Speaker 1: When we talk about Byron Buxton again, the the the underlying metrics, the the you know, the overall production, you know when he's healthy, just the highlights that you see, you can clearly see why he is such a special talent. But the reason why a lot of people may not recognize that is because the simple truth is you just don't see it for long stretches. It's rare to see that. This past season, Byron Buxton had a career high in plate appearances with five hundred and forty two played appearances, here's the issue with that. Not only is it only the second time that he's had over five hundred played appearances in his career, he's played in the league for a decade, there's only been two years when he's had five hundred plate appearances. The other problem is is that the first one happened in twenty seventeen. Between twenty seventeen and twenty and twenty four, twenty eighteen twenty twenty four, Byron Buckston didn't clear four hundred plate appearances. Injuries, both of the freakish kind and both of the concerning kind, have kind of defined Byron Buckston's career. And no matter how talented he is, nothing beats the ability to be available, and that clearly is a question mark, as it should be, especially as he gets into his thirties.

00:19:49
Speaker 4: Yeah, so you can't have the Barron Buston conversation without talking about injuries and games played in miss games. And the undeniable fact is that over the last five years Byron Buckson has averaged averaged about ninety nine games per season, so and again that's average. He had multiple seasons with less than that. Now, the good news is last season, like you just mentioned, he did you know. I think it was like one hundred and thirty games. He got to five hundred plus player appearances, still put up a five win season. And that is the one good thing about Bucks. And he is so good that even in these seasons where he's only playing ninety one hundred games, he's still putting up like four win seasons because that's how talented he is. He doesn't need one hundred and sixty two games to put up a four win season. And if you ever got one hundred and sixty two games out of him, he'd probably put up like a seven win season. So he is incredibly productive when he's on the field. He's just not on the field as much as you need him. And this is why I think the Braves specifically, I think why he is good for the Braves and why the Braves would be good for him because the Braves have three outfielders already. You can rotate him at DH. This is critical for Acunya, it's critical for Buston, it's critical for Harrison Profar. Let these guys rest their legs, you know, two or three times a week. Michael Harris is a good enough defensive center fielder where you don't have to have. The Twins had to have Barron Buckston in center field every time he was on a field, because that's how good he is. There was one season where hedged I remember, I think it was like twenty twenty three, where they wanted to try to keep him healthy, But other than that, he's pretty much always in center field because that's how good he is. It's really hard to keep his glove off the field, especially when you're the Twins and you don't have a ton of talent anyways, Well, the Braves have plenty of The Blaves have plenty of defensive talent in centerfield. They don't have to play Barron Buxton in center field the way the Twins had to. They also have you know, we have the DH in the National League. You can rotate this DH spot and try to keep him healthy because the I mean, the god honest truth is he's never been healthy enough to be a consistent player. I actually it's actually incredible how productive he's been when he is in the lineup based on how much time he's missed, because I don't know how he does. I mean, usually when guys miss as much time as he's missed, they come back and they're rusty, they're not quite the same level. It takes a while to get going. We've seen that with Akunya a couple of times. That doesn't happen to him. He comes back the next day and he is all star Byron busted again. It's just a credit to how unbelievably naturally talented this kid is. But yes, the injuries are real, and you have to factor that in to any sort of trade. You know, anaych sort of trade cost is that there's a very good chance he's going to play one hundred games. Now, those are going to be some insanely productive one hundred games, but it might just be one hundred games. And that does factor into the costs that you pay. And we're going to talk about cost here in a minute. But you have to be honest with yourself and listen. Outfielders do not get more healthy as they get older. They get less healthy. Outfield is not a you know, Barnbucks and I think is thirty one about to be I think next year is his age thirty two season. That is not a time when outfielders get healthier. That is usually a time when legs start to not be quite what they were father time starts catching up. The fact that he was still ninety ninth in sprint speed last year is absurd. That's a really good sign that his athleticism has not gone anywhere. You know, it's not quite like a Kunya where he's had two major knee reconstructions and so you worry about the athleticism long term. That's not Bucks, and Bucks has always had. You know, It's been different types of inergies with him. But the injuries have to be accounted for it, and you have to be accounted for when you talk about the trade package. They have to be accounted for when you talk about the lineup. Again, I think the Braves need to be hyper aggressive with the DH and rotating these guys around to try to keep as many guys healthy as possible. But the injuries matter and they have to be factored in.

00:24:01
Speaker 2: Absolutely.

00:24:02
Speaker 1: And again, you know, it's that one hundred to one hundred and twenty games is likely what he would play if he was a member of your team, But with the rotation that the Braves would have in place in their outfield, it's also about what one hundred to one hundred and twenty games that he plays and if he and Akoonie are both healthy going into the playoffs, that that is a championship worthy combination potentially, And that is a reason why the Braves should be aggressive. But another reason why, perhaps the biggest reason why I of all the Braves should be aggressive, is that we can talk about the injuries, we can talk about the history of the injuries. You can look at the Twins situation and think that they may be willing to want to get off of his money. I want to make something very clear, if the Braves were to pursue Byron Buxton, it is going to hurt when it comes to the cost they are going to have to pay, just because of his injury history, because of the long term money that he's owed, because of the Twins situation. Yes, that those are contributing factors to why they may look to trade him. That doesn't drive down the cost though to where it would not cost a lot. I think the Brave should be willing to pay it. But it's going to exceed what many think it's going to be the type of payment in terms of prospects that really will show up in terms of the quality that will remain in the minor league system. If they were to make the trade.

00:25:28
Speaker 4: Yeah. So one of the things that I've watched today in mine mentions and other people's mentioned, you know, this conversation has been raging all day since passing Drop, this is everybody's got a fake trade, right, everybody's got a fake trade idea of what it's going to cost. And I think almost universally, every fake trade, I mean, fake trades are always terrible, but every fake trade I've seen doesn't quite get that Byron Buckson is going to cost a ton. First of all, he's controlled for three more years. This is not a rental in any way, shape or for him. He has got three years of team control, which is massive. That is tremendously valuable on the trade market. Second, like we've already talked about, he is a a one superstar level talent, Ronald Cuno junior level talent, and these guys do not come available very often. So there's also almost a scarcity that gets tacked onto the value of just the odds and the chances that you're ever gonna be able to trade for somebody else like him is you know, it's not gonna come around again. And then third, he makes fifteen million dollars a year, which is dirt cheap. He's got I think it's three years and forty five million dollars left on his contract. He signed a big contract extension with the Twins. I think twenty twenty one or twenty twenty two, I can't remember what it was, but he's he's about halfway through it now. But he's got three years and four that's nothing. That's how much Jersey Profile mix. And I got news for you. Barron Buckston is a hell a lot better in Jerkson Profar, but they make the same amount of money. So the trade cost is going to hurt. And I want Bradce fans to hear that. You know, trading Bryce Elder and Nacho Alvarez is not gonna get you, Barron Buxton. I've seen too much of that trade and Hayden Harris and Nacho Alvarez and pick a nineteen year old from a ball is not gonna get you, Barron Buxton. You need to go to the very top of the Braves prospect list. Like if I'm the Twins, the first name I asked for, like I'm gonna ask for Drake Baldwin. The Braid's not gonna say yes to that. But the next name I asked for is gonna be Herston Waltrup. I want a guy that I think might be able to start at the top of my rotation for the next six seven years. The next guy I'm asking for is cam Cameniddi or maybe even a J. Smith Schalver. I'm asking for a ton for like your top three prospects, and the Braves don't have the best farm system in the world. Their top three prospects are not exactly the same as another team that maybe has a top ten farm system. Giving up, you know, two of their top prospects and then another one lower down, it's going to hurt. And I just what I don't want to see. What's gonna annoy me is if I see all these people clamoring for a Byron Buckston trade and then get mad at the team when they do it because it costs a lot, It's gonna hurt. It's gonna cost a lot. Now we're gonna talk about the draft in a way the Braves can potentially replenish some of those prospects at the end of this show. But first and foremost, what I want people to hear from this is that Byron trading for Byron Buston is extremely expensive. He is the type of process He's the type of player that never gets traded. He's a type of talent that doesn't get traded. He's on a contract that is dirt cheap. It's one of the best players in Baseball's got three years of team control that is crazy expensive. It is going to hurt. It is going to be names you do not want to trade. So just understand that. Understand that going in, and it might it might be to the point where it's prohibibly, prohibitively expensive. It might be the thing that stops the Brads from doing it. But we would be disingenuous if we did not come on the show and say training for Byerbusten is going to be incredibly expensive.

00:29:28
Speaker 1: And the other important factor into this is, as much as we want to talk about how much this makes sense for the Braves, and you know how he the Braves may be the preference of Byron Buckston for different reasons. I know that he has a full no trade clause, but Jeff Passing hinted at it, and Byron Buxton probably would have him sent up to do it. The Braves are not the only team that he would raise his no trade cause to go to. That's the one, But more importantly, there probably are other teams out there, And I'll go as far as saying, like the New York Mets, for instance, who probably make a bit more sense for Minnesota to talk to than the Braves, because those teams probably would be able to offer a bit higher prospect package just because of the quality that's in their system that I.

00:30:16
Speaker 4: Think the Mets have the number one farm system in basically.

00:30:19
Speaker 1: And it's heavily filled with Position Blair prospects that is very realistic like that that could easily happen, and from Minnesota's perspective, that's what they're going to value. As we mentioned going back to twenty fifteen, Byron Buxton was Minnesota's Ronald Acuna JUNI. They're looking to rebuild potentially, So if they're looking to do that, their best way to get a successful start to the rebuild is hitting a home run with this Byron Buxton trade. And the Braves are not in as good position as other teams to be able to offer that.

00:30:55
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that's a good This is not a salary. They're not clearing salary with the Byron bucks and trade. Like some of the other deals they did at the deadline, they were clearing salary. Byron Buckson for his talent level is underpaid by a ton. This is not a some albatross contract that and I saw that too. We're like, well, the Twins are trying to get off his money. His money is a asset.

00:31:16
Speaker 1: It is not a liability, especially coming after last season.

00:31:19
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:31:19
Speaker 4: Yeah, he is so far in the green in terms of positive trade value and surplus trade value. His contract, in no way, shape or form is some albatross hanging around their neck that they need to clear. People need to get that out of their head. He makes nothing relative to his talent level, So it's like it's just like a Cunya, Just like Acunya he make. Acunya makes seventeen million dollars next year. Buckston makes fifteen million dollars next year, and they're both like MVP level players. It's exactly like Ronald Acuna Junior. So this is not the Twins needing to dump money and will be willing to take whatever package this is if we're going to trade our franchise, which is what Byron Buckson is we need a monster haul in return that our fans see and they're like, Okay, we're gonna rebuild, but at least we're kicking it off with a hell of a trade. And that's like, that's the that's the mindset as a Braves fan, you got to get into in terms of what this is gonna cost, and.

00:32:14
Speaker 1: The Braves should be willing to trade that level of package. But again it also needs to be understood what the Braves can offer as that type of package in their terms may not be to the level that other teams could and that's going to be a big factor for the twins. And for that being said, I know that you know Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, there are a couple other twins, and you know we have been talking about a starting pitcher as well. Just to be candid, the Braves do not have the assets needed to go after a package deal of Byron Buxton and one of Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez to be able to get that deal done. The reason why I say that Minnesota, if you go to them and you ask for Byron Buckston plus one of Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, they're going to come back and say, we need Spencer Swellenbach or Drake Baldwin to be the centerpiece of the deal along with two of Hirst and Waldrip cam Kemmenedtti and Jr. Richie and the Twins are right in asking for that. If they're trading that, do that level of duo in low Pez and Ryan plus Buxton. I know I throw a lot of names out there. I know that I'm speculating, you know, maybe to more than people may like. The Braves do not have the goods or the Braves do not do The Braves are not going to be willing to pay the level of goods that they'll need to pay to land Byron Buxton plus a Pablo Lopez or a Joe Ryan Byron Bucks. If the Braves trade for Byron Buxton, that's going to be their it move. That's going to be They're all in big move, not only of this offseason, but of this window. I think that needs to be made clear. It's worth doing, But expanding on it just doesn't make sense.

00:33:54
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, package package deals like that are very rare. Anyways, if you're the selling, you can almost always get more splitting the players up into separate deals because when you put them together, the values get kind of jumbled together and you're not next to not necessarily maximizing either guy. And so teams don't typically do it when they have multiple you know, anytime a team is fire selling like the Twins just did at the deadline, they didn't combine a bunch of players. They made seven different trades to you know, different teams. That's what you do if the and I still think the Twins are gonna trade, their GM came out at the beginning of the GM meetings and said that they're gonna build around Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan. That doesn't make any sip. You don't rebuild. You don't build around thirty year old pitchers. So that's just that's is just the GM talking to avoid saying, yeah, we're gonna sell these guys. I still think both guys are gonna get traded. But yeah, if you're starting for Byron Buckston, you're already giving up a chunk of your farm system. And the Braves, like we've talked about, they've got good players at the top of their farm system, but they don't have the depth. You know, I remember last year the like when the Red Sox traded for Garrett Crochet. The Red Sox made this massive trade for Garrett Crochet and at the end still had Roman Anthony and Marcelo Meyer and a bunch of other guys that are awesome prospects in their farm system. After they traded for Garrett Crochet. Well, the Braves don't have that. The Braves can't make a massive trade like that and still have a bunch of you know, they don't have that level. Yes, they can make one of these trades by combining enough big time names, but that's kind of their limit right now. So yes, I do not see any sort of like package deal. Those don't really happen that much anyways. Teams just get more by splitting players up. So I would not expect public I wouldn't expect. I honestly would not expect the Byron Buxton deal to happen. Most trades don't happen. I certainly wouldn't wouldn't expect some sort of package deal.

00:35:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that passon was correct and giving it about a thirty five percent chance.

00:36:00
Speaker 4: And that might and that might be high.

00:36:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's that's very fair because again, the twins that they can always keep it, you know that they can us.

00:36:09
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's nothing forcing them to trade it.

00:36:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it makes sense coming off the healthiest season he's had in his career, plus the best season he's had in his career. Arguably that does make sense. But they don't have to trade him. But in terms of the Braids, one other you know, point that I think in terms of the off season that I think is worth making. Again, you're if you trade for Biban Bucks and again that clearly is your big move of the off season, as it should be. But but I do think that there will be some significance in we know the Braids want to add a starter, probably just as much as they want to add a bat. And even though I think going after Buckston should be where they're their most aggressive, I think that them adding a picture will probably happen first before a Buston deal does. I think the level at which they go to to add a picture couldn't give us a bit of an encation how serious or how potentially likely a Buckston move is. For instance, if the Braves were to go out and sign you know, some type of picture like say it's a Chris Bassett or somebody like that you know to a two year deal. You know, in the twenty five to thirty million dollars deal, that's not that expensive of a contract. You've not traded to way any prospects, and you're not going out to get a headline guy. Agive, the Braves need reliable depth for their pitching rotation. If the Braves were to go to that level to go get a starting pitcher, then you really could see, Okay, they've added their starter, but they still have all that they need to go make a Buston deal happen. Now, if the Braves were to go out and trade for a what you would consider a frontline starter, I think that makes a Buckston deal less likely. So in terms of the timeline and kind of how to give an idea of how likely a bucks And deal were to happen, I don't think that the Buxton deal happened soon. I think the Braves probably add their arm before they were to pursue a Bucks sty. But I do think the level to which they go and how they go about adding that arm could give an indication of how serious they are of getting Byron Buckston.

00:38:10
Speaker 4: No, it's a good point. I mean, if they yeah, if they If they call the Mariners and say, hey, we're gonna we want Lewis Castillo, you know what kind of prospect package you're gonna need for him, then yeah, that definitely decreases the chances you're gonna have enough left to be And this is we don't frame it like this a lot, but we need to frame it like this more. You have to have the best offer for Byron Buxton out of however many teams are bidding on him. Your prospect package has to be the best. So what are the odds that you can trade for a guy like Luis Castillo or pick your favorite you know, pitch er target and still have the best trade offer for Byron Buckston. It's it's not high. It's probably one or the other. But like you said, if they go and sign Merril Kelly for you know, a reasonable contract sixteen seventeen million dollars, don't have to give up the draft pick, which again we're gonna talk about here in a second, and don't give up any prospects obviously for a free agent signing, then hell yeah, I mean you could certainly see like big green light, they're clearly not gonna do their big move on the rotation. Maybe their big move is gonna be Byron Buckston. So you're right, it does. It is an indication. You know, if they went out and signed Ranger. You know, if we got the blue box tomorrow that they went out and signed Ranger Suarez and gave up the draft pick to do it, I would probably be in the middle be like, well, they could technically still go get Bucksing because they haven't given up any prospects yet, but that would be that would be at the high end of their payroll because Suarez is probably gonna cost twenty five million dollars and Buxton would cost another fifteen. So then you get into like luxury tax stuff, which're not gonna get into on this show until it actually happens. Not gonna do hypothetical luxury tax stuff. It gets way too complicated. So yeah, you're right, I mean, what what they do there? And Scott made this point in our DMS today, the picture market is moving like we've seen multiple big time pictures. You know. Obviously Dylan Ceese and the Sunny Gray Tray happen. There's a couple more in the last couple of days. I know Helsley signed, who's the guy from the KBO that just signed his name just left my head haunts. Yeah with the Blue Jays. Yeah, just got thirty million from the Blue Jays. So the picture market is moving. We could definitely see that move happen first. But I do agree with you. I think you could certainly tell by what they do on that side of the ball. You could you could probably draw a line to does that increase or decrease the likelihood of Buxton.

00:40:43
Speaker 1: Absolutely, it's gonna be fascinating to watch at the end. You know, We've talked about it from many different perspectives, but I feel that me and Steven are on the same page, and Stephen correct me if I'm wrong. If there is an off season to go get it done, you have so many reasons to go get it done.

00:40:59
Speaker 2: The team needs to, the offense needs it.

00:41:01
Speaker 1: You know, you want to win now. In this window, you have the ability to eventually replenish what you trade away. With the fact that you have a pretty stacked opportunity to make this a very good draft to add to your.

00:41:13
Speaker 2: System, go get it done.

00:41:16
Speaker 1: That doesn't mean that you need to go crazy in getting it done. The Braves need to pay the high cost that it's going to take. But if the opportunity is there, get it done, get it squared away. It seems like that there again, isn't just speculation, you know, this isn't speculation. This seems to be more smoke than anything. It seems like that there's general interest in wanting to get it done. If you see the finish line within breach across it. Again, if it makes sense, but we be willing to make it make sense, I think is the best way to put it. But again we talk about why the Braves should do it. It's because, as we mentioned before, the Braves are really set up well to add a lot of talent from the twenty twenty six draft, which is expected to be one of the best ones we've seen in a while. The opportunities there for the Braves to add a lot of good talent to their pharma system from the twenty sixth draft. More on that in just a moment. So, Stephen, let's talk about the two and twenty six draft, and most importantly, let's talk about a week from now December ninth. Now, when you I know that many people who listen to this podcast as Braves fans, they're Hawks fans. We may have some Hornets fans. We may have some Grizzlies fans, We may have some Pelicans fans, so on and so forth. I mentioned all those teams because in recent years those team fans of those teams have been able to be excited in the NBA Draft. Well, the Major League Baseball now has a version of that's probably not to the same level as the NBA Draft, honestly, but they do have. The two thousand and twenty six draft lottery next Tuesday, December Night, not sure at the time at the moment, but it is noteworthy because the Braves are right middle in terms of getting the potential to have a top pick. Now, the ability for them to get an overall top pick is pretty low, but they have I believe a forty five percent chance to get a top six pick, and I think like a seventy five percent chance.

00:43:16
Speaker 2: To get a top eight pick.

00:43:18
Speaker 1: This is a noteworthy night because the storyline of the twenty sixth draft, that is that in terms of the top ten of the twenty sixth draft, the position player depth in this draft is one of the best in terms of quality that we've seen in recent history. So next Tuesday, December ninth. It's going to be an important day that will tell us where the Braves will pick in the first round, and that could really, really, really be a good night for the Braves in terms of again adding quality to their minor league system.

00:43:47
Speaker 4: Yeah, so it came out today, I think it was today. I think it was this morning that the comp or the pick that the Braves got for Drake Baldwin winning Rookie of the Year was gonna be the twenty sixth pick in the draft, which I think has like three and a half million dollars tied to it in terms of its pool. And then on top of that, what Sean was just talking about is they're gonna get a top ten pick of some most likely get a top ten pick. I think they're guaranteed to get a top ten pick. I think they have like a seventy five or eighty percent chance to get a top eight pick, and then I think you would say like forty five percent to get a top six. So it could be a massive night for the Braves. And it's this this does tie to the Buxton conversation because, like we just said, to trade for Buckston, you're gonna have to deplete your farm system a little bit at the top, not a little bit, a significant amount at the top to satisfy whatever Minnesota is gonna ask for, because they're gonna be able to ask that from a lot of teams. Well, you can then turn around in next July's draft and replenish a lot of that talent because you're gonna have I mean, let's be honest in terms of like ability to add impact players. This is probably the bravest, most significant draft in a decade since the rebuild. I think that's fair. I don't think that's hyperbole. And you add the fact that not only are they going to have a top ten pick, but they've got this extra what is effectively a first round pick, all of this draft pool money, and obviously if they sign a qualified free agent, they would lose that pick, so we need to mention that. But if they don't sign a qualified free agent, if they's instead trade for somebody like Byron Buxton as their big move and keep that pick, they can add a ton of talent, a ton of talent in the draft, including like a clear headline whatever you take. You know, let's say they get the fifth pick in the draft, whatever it is. We'll know in a week. The draft lotteries on Tuesday, in the middle of the Winter meetings. Winter meetings start on Sunday. Let's say they take the fifth pick. Well, whoever they take there, assuming it's a guy who's around the that level of ranking in the it's probably gonna be the best player in the Braves farm system, or very close to the best player in the Brais farm system, depending on where you have Cam Kevin Dye and depending on how Jr. Richie and you know, we'll see what these all these shortstops the Brave's drafted last year end up doing next year. But yes, this is a massive opportunity to significantly upgrade your farm system. And it's a massive opportunity to potentially replenish your farm system if you, for instance, make a very large trade that's going to take multiple top prospects. So it's all connected. We did learn today that the Baldwood pick is going to be twenty six. We'll learn next week, a week from today, actually what that top pick is where they fall in the in the lottery. But yeah, it's a significant, easily the most significant draft of the Braves in probably a decade.

00:46:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the only one that would compare to it was the the two thousand and seventeen or eighteen draft where they didn't sign the pitcher Carter Sam's Carter than they.

00:47:00
Speaker 4: Did car Start. Yeah, I guess those I guess those rebuild drafts were pretty high, like I was. But he was was a third third pickin he was under he went under. They went under slot for him. Colin Wright was like a fifth pick.

00:47:14
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:47:15
Speaker 1: The year after they didn't sign Carter Stewart, they had the ninth pick and they picked picked say Langlers and then they had the first pick and they picked Braid and Shoe make. So that would that would be the most recent draft that compares. But again I want to talk about the addition of that twenty sixth pick due to Drake Baldwin winning Rookie of the Year. The reason why that again is so important is because of that slot money and what the Braves can do with that slot money. We've talked about and want to reemphasize again. Now that they've got all that money to work with the really add quality talent in this draft, you could replenish what you trade away to go get a difference maker like a Byron Buxton. So it gives your reason to be aggressive and go do it. But the other point that I want to make is this is bec because you have that extra pick and that extra slot money, the Braves, whether it's been in the top ten or whether it's been in the twenties, they more often than not have wanted to take advantage of the slot money and kind of go an underslot guy with their first pick so they can have more money to work with in the draft. I think that's fine if you want to do it with that twenty six pick, But now that you've got that twenty six pick in that slot money, just like you can be aggressive into trade, go be aggressive and get a headline, legitimate top five, six, seven talent in what's.

00:48:30
Speaker 2: Supposed to be a top heavy loaded.

00:48:33
Speaker 1: Draft that really could bring your top position player in years into the system. That's the other stage that the Braves can be aggressive on. Because they landed this extra pick, they could really land themselves. We want to talk about difference makers. They can give themselves a better shot of landing that type of talent for the long long term from this draft. So that is something else that I want to see them do, especially if they were to get a pick in the top five. By the way, here kind of the odds breaks down. The Braves have a seven and a half percent chance basically of getting the first pick. They have a twenty five percent chance of landing in the top three, forty five percent chance of landing in the top six, seventy five percent chance of landing in the top eight, and they basically have ninety nine percent chance of landing in the top ten. When I say their percentage chance, what I'm meaning is is, out of one hundred percent, what are the odds that they could potentially get each pick slot. That's how it breaks down. So again, a seventy five percent chance to land a top eight pick in a draft that is supposed to be one of the deepest we've seen in the top ten in terms of quality position player prospects. Be aggressive as possible to get the best talent that you can.

00:49:49
Speaker 4: Yeah, And obviously, the way the draft is set up, it's not only the fact that you get a higher pick depending on where you land in the lottery, but the higher the pick you get, the more bonus pull money you get for each of your top ten picks. I think it is so yeah, it's a massive deal. And even in this last draft. You know the Braves what you're talking about, how they usually go under slot in the first round to they did that again in twenty twenty five. You know, when they they drafted South the Scene as their first pick. It was an underslought deal so they could get I think Briggs, I think his name was Briggs McKenzie, right, the guy at Belashue. They had to they had to buy him out of his commitment.

00:50:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, they went They went overslot in the third and fourth round because they went under slot in the first.

00:50:31
Speaker 4: Yeah. So yeah, they do that a lot. And I agree with you as long as they don't end up losing that pick to a qualified free agent. I would love to see them in that. You know, if it's like a top five pick or whatever, be aggressive, maybe go ad slaughter or maybe even overslought and go get like a high, high level guy that's clearly the top guy in the system. It's kind of a I want to see the Braves Farms system get back to where it's like at least in the top half of the league. I know it's been underrated, probably because guys like Drake Baldwin and Schwallenbach came out of nowhere and weren't really ranked where they should have been. And so I do think the Brave's farm system is better than it's been publicly rated, but I still think it's been, you know, below average. I would say, I still think it's been in the bottom half of the league instead of the top half of the league the last few years. So I do want to see that system get back to where it's a weapon that you can use at all times. But yeah, this twenty twenty sixth draft is going to be one of the biggest Braves drafts we've seen in a long time. So and obviously we'll learn on Tuesday where they're picking in the first round.

00:51:40
Speaker 1: But hey, that's kind of, you know, a silver lining. You don't want to go through the struggles that the Brave did is in the twenty five season to get to this point, but now that we're past it, we can at least have some fun with it. It's just another added really exciting you know, aspect of this offseason for the future, and hopefully the Braiser will be able to take his full advantage of it as possible. You know, we typically don't mention split contract signings, minor league signings, these small kind of irrelevant signings that the Braves do, but do want to bring up a name that the Braves did add back into the system in Danny Young. Danny Young signed a split contract of Young will be I believe out until the middle of the season. I believe that he had Tommy John surgery early last year. This is his second stint with the Braves. He had a bit of a stint in twenty twenty three. Looked pretty good in the opportunities.

00:52:31
Speaker 2: That he had.

00:52:32
Speaker 1: But Steven, it's the intrigue of young stuff that if he comes back and proves to be healthy, it could be We've seen the Braves do this sign these injured pitchers because they're intrigued by their stuff. Danny Young could be a bit more notable of a signing than most because of his history with the Braves and also the fact that he has some pretty decent stuff when he's healthy.

00:52:55
Speaker 4: Yeah, a big strikeout guy. I mean, you go, look he is. So he's with the Braves in twenty three. Kind of a cup of coffee. I think he was actually with the Braves at the end of twenty two in the beginning of twenty three, you know, a couple of coffee I think they had like ten innings pitched to twenty three, and then he spent the last couple of years with the Mets with Jeremy Hefner. By the way, who's the braves new pitching coach. And I'm sure that's not a coincidence. But tons of strikeouts. Guy strikes out a ton of people. It's like a fastball, sinker slider combo. Not the hardest throw in the world, but just gets a ton of swing and miss. It's obviously a very funky arm angle. It's a very uncomfortable bat. The Braves always are interested in these kind of really strong strikeout to walk ratio guys, which is what Young is. And he signed a split contract, and I'm not gonna get into all the mechanics of that, but typically spec split contract guys are on the forty man like Videl Bruhan just signed a split contract and he's still in the forties. So I'm pretty sure Denny Young gets a forty man spot. And then you get X amount of money if you're in the majors, and you get X amount of money if you're the miners. It allows teams to send guys to the miners who maybe don't have mining the options. Like Videl Bruhan when he signed that split contract, can now be sent to the miners even though he doesn't have mining the options. Danny Young is the same. Now with Young, it's not as big a deal because, like Sewn just said, he's gonna be he's gonna be out to like July, maybe August with he had Tom and John surgery in May, so this is a second half of the season, you know, might get some reinforcements type of deal. It's very little money. As soon as the sixty day il opens back up when we get to spring training, Danny Young will immediately go on that, which will clear his forty man spot. So's there's not a lot of risk here. There's not a lot you're paying for. They're just they're banking on some upside with the strikeout stuff. They know Danny Young. Obviously, Jeremy Hefner really knows Danny Young, and I'm sure that connection helped a lot. So yeah, I'm not a big signing. We saved to Diddy in the show, but he is gonna be on the forty man for a little bit. So it's a big enough signing where we need to mention it split contract. He'll be on the sixty il when the season starts, and maybe some second half reinforcements.

00:55:07
Speaker 2: So here we go.

00:55:08
Speaker 1: I know that the Danny Young level of signing may not really get you going in terms of excitement, but this show was meant to get you going in terms of excitement. The connection to Byron buckson the hot stove heating up with some notable names. Some of the best pictures are off the market. The most obvious pictures are off the market now because of the stove is heating up. The braves getting more indications of just how beneficial the twenty twenty sixth draft could be. All of these things we could see come to fruition or we could get more insight on over the next ten to twelve days, especially with the Winter Beatings being next week. So buckle up, the riot is about to get a bit faster, but a bit more exciting, and we're gonna have you fully covered here on the Hammer Territory podcast. Steven Tolbort anything else from you as we wrap up this edition of The Hammer Territory podcast.

00:55:54
Speaker 2: Nope.

00:55:54
Speaker 4: Yeah, Winter meetings start this weekend, start on Sunday there from Sunday to Weinsday Thursday next week. So the Winter Meetings are where stuff gets real, where stuff happens. You'll see trade, you'll see signings. You know, most Winter meetings have at least one big move in them. This is not like the GM meetings, which is like a precursor the GM meeting or the Winter Meetings or worse, stuff actually really starts to happen. Teams really want to start focusing in on signings. Guys are already off the board. You got all the gms there and they're all focused on team building. There's nobody that's you know, doing other stuff or talking with owners. Everybody is in the building. I think it's in Orlando this year. Everybody's in the building and they're focused on team building, and so you can get a lot of stuff done in a short amount of time. I say all that to say, we're gonna have it cover whatever happens at the Winter Meetings, anything Braves related, we will have it covered on here the moment it happens. So if you're not subscribed, make sure you are. The off season is heating up in every way.

00:56:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know when we talk when people talk about how excited the first few days of Hitfel free agent is or NBA free agency, this is Baseball's version of that. So we get a buckle up. It hopefully is going to start to get real exciting. But hey, always a pleasure to do these with you, Steven. You can find Stephen Tobert at b Underscore Outliers, myself at the Stats Sac on Twitter, slash x. You can find Hammer Territory across all fourms and social media, part of the Foul Territory family of podcasts. Brad Scott me Stephen. You're gonna be seeing a lot of us over the next week or so breaking down all the latest rumors, signings, moves potentially what can occur. Hopefully there will need plenty of them as the Braves look to get back to contention next year and beyond. Until next time, Go Braves. We'll talk to you again soon here on the Hammer Territory podcast