Spencer Strider Makes Positive Strides, Drake Baldwin Goes Deep In Loss To Marlins

00:00:19
Speaker 1: Welcome on and all to the Hemmer Territory Podcast. My name is Showan Coleman. Hope. Wherever you are and wherever you are listening, you had a great weekend and you are giving off to a great start in the final week of August. And Steven Tobert for Braves fans and Bravest Country, I think there's something that many of us have been waiting to hear football starts this weekend and I can't wait that kind of that being something that's being said on August twenty fourth, and that being more exciting to hear than the Braves entering September. Definitely not a good sign of the season that we've had, but hey, we're here, We've arrived. But the thing is, we've still got five weeks of Braves based appy to talk about, including your fan of pitching matchups. A pretty exciting game in that perspective tonight between Edward Cabrera and Spencer Stryder. And the thing is is that with Spincher Strider Stephen, it was an improved start in terms of results.

00:01:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, what's up, buddy, Yes, football season. The countdown to football season started about a month ago. Uh in Braves Country, unfortunately, and you know, we haven't had many of these seasons. In fact, you know, relative to expectation, we haven't had a season like this and most of our lifetimes quite honestly. I mean, they had the the twenty fifteen, two sixteen, twenty seventeen seasons, but those teams were expected to be bad. A team that was supposed to be good and not making the playoffs. It's been a long time for this team, you know, especially you know, they had the September collapses, but like to be this bad this early, it just hasn't happened. Like Brais fans just don't aren't used to going through this, and so they don't really know how to respond. And I'm right there with him. I mean, it's been a weird it's been a weird feeling the last couple of weeks, just kind of playing out the stream, looking forward to football season, still following baseball. I'm still excited for the playoffs. I'm gonna watch the playoffs, of course, but yeah, it's a weird feeling. So we're you know, we're kind of looking for these little individual moments to highlight, to talk about, to maybe look forward to to next year and we had Spencer Strider starting tonight, and of course this has been the topic the last few weeks. Is Spencer has been I mean, Spencer's just been bad, Like there's really no sugar coating and he's been you know, I talked about it, I think with Scott at one point, but like it might have been me and you, but like, you know, the idea of having to kind of survive Spencer Strider starts so that you can thrive in Hurston Waldrip starts. It's just such a weird place to be, but that's where the Braves have found themselves. And so you know, every time he takes the mount tonight, it's notable. And he made some changes tonight that we're going to talk about. And I don't know if they're you know, long term changes or if they were just matchup base, but it was interesting nonetheless, and he had a good night tonight. The Bros didn't win, they lost two to one. They lost, you know, Edward Cabrad just kind of kicked their ass tonight. But Strider made some interesting adjustments that we're going to talk about.

00:03:21
Speaker 1: And Mark Bowman at MLB dot Com mentioned it best. I think, you know, so many people have had different opinions about what kind of has fell off or decline or regress for Strider so far this year. The velocity, the movement, the placement. I think all those things are have played a part in, you know, him going into the night coming off arguably the worst three start stretch of his career. Those things still were not perfect tonight. You could still clearly see that there were times where he was still struggling with this placement, struggling with movement, all that different stuff. The Miami Marlins, who were not themselves name as a prolific offense, they hit the ball very hard tonight on many occasions. That still was true, and ultimately that is something that Spencer Strider is going to have to figure out how to limit. But what I'm getting at with mar Bowmen is that he said, we could talk about all the different details that we want, but run prevention did occur tonight, and run prevention occurred coinciding with the fact that Spencer Strider made some changes to his overall approach of how he set up hitters of the arsenal that he used in different parts of the at bat in different counts. And sometimes it's that simple it's just simple enough to where you need to change the direction to go from. I've tried this, tried this, tried this, and every time I'm getting shelled. But this time I was successful. It may not have looked as dominant, or it may not have looked as good as I had wanted it to, but something worked. So at the very least, tonight, I think that the emphasis instead of going as specific as possible, it's important to talk about what he changed up in terms of his approach. But at the very least he saw results change, and we talked about instead of shutting him down, Strider and the Braves probably wanted to set him up to have a success, to have a chance to have a successful into the season. This was a good step. And what that is being in the right direction, I think tenter of the offseason.

00:05:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, so listen, tonight he just used his other pitches more. You know, he came into the night throwing his change up about three percent of the time, and tonight he threw his change up ten percent of the time, So you know, he tripled the usage of his changeup. His curveball, same thing it's been in the you know, around the five percent range. For most of the year. Tonight it was at twelve percent, so he more than doubled his curveball usage. You know, we've talked about this before, but in twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three, you know, Spencer was one of the best pitchers on the planet. And twenty twenty two, Spencer threw his fastball sixty seven percent of the time, which is crazy. That's how good his fastball was. In twenty twenty three, he threw his fastball sixty percent of the time, which is also crazy, but again that's how good his fastball was. Tonight, for most of the night, his fastball usage set around thirty eight percent. I think the last five pitches he threw in the game were all fastball, so that that bumped it up to like forty or forty one percent to end the night. But he spent most of the night with a fastball usage in like the mid thirties in terms of percentage, and that is very different for him, and that was notable, and a lot of people watching the game were just noticing how many more sliders, how many more curveballs, how many more changeups he was throwing. Now, again, it's one start, and this could have been just matchup specific. It could have been individual matchup specific in terms of actual hitters, or just could have been team specific to the Marlins. Or he could have not planned on doing this at all, got out to the mound and didn't feel, you know, it didn't feel like his fastball had anything, so he made an adjustment on the fly. So we don't know if this is kind of like a new thing for him. But when you see a guy who used to throw his fastball sixty seven percent of the time throw at thirty eight percent of the time in a start, you need to make note of that, right. That's why we're talking about it's because it's notable. And we'll see he did have a better nine to nine. He did not have as much swing and miss as I'm sure he would want, and he had three strikeouts. There was a lot of still a lot of hard contact, and he probably got a little fortunate that he only gave up the one run that he gave up, which was the homer I think wasn't a Yeah, it was a homer, So we'll see. It's just a it's a it's an interesting data point. You know, we talked about is he going to make adjustments. What are those adjustments going to be. This is the first game where we saw like real adjustments, and you know, the next time out, we'll see if this continues. If this was just matchup based, but it's notable.

00:08:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, and if the velocity on the fastball is a bit slower than it has been in the past, if you flash more of the off speed stuff, that naturally can make the fastball look a bit faster if it is at a slower speed overall, So it's also just changing up what hitters are seeing. And I'll give Strider credit, probably again a bit of luck, but there was efficiency there, right, only three strikeouts across seven innings, but still ninety five pitches in seven innings. That's pretty efficient. Only fifty five of those were strike so, you know, not the highest strike percentage. But again, it just comes down to sometimes Stephen, it just comes down to a pitcher just have a successful game. And I think that that's what Strider really was looking for. I don't think that this in any way, shape or form convinces Strider that, hey, he's clearly on his way back to be in himself. I think he's smart enough to know that's probably not the case, but at the very least, it's just it's nice for him, probably for a mental aspect, to not come out of a start once again thinking just what can I do to just have a bit of success, instead of coming out of tonight thinking, Okay, I didn't have my best stuff, but I was resourceful enough to still get the job done. I did my job. For Spencer Strider, he puts a lot a lot of pride in doing his job, and tonight he did. That's something he hasn't been able to say for quite a while. It's nice for him to be able to be in that position.

00:09:37
Speaker 2: Exactly. And I want to mention that we've talked a lot about how much velocities Spencer has lost. There are plenty of pitchers in Major League Baseball that have tons and tons of success throwing a fastball ninety five ninety six miles an hour. It's not like you can't pitch at this level throw a ninety five ninety six. I mean, that's still I think Spencer's fastball is still above average in terms of I think the average is like ninety five point one or something like that, and I think Spencer's is like ninety five point six. So like, of course you can pitch at this level with that fastball. What Spencer has never had to do that those other pitchers have had to do and have learned how to do, is how to use the entire arsenal to help set up that fastball, and how to locate that fastball in places that it's going to have success, and how to keep it out of places where it's going to get lit up. That's what Spencer's never had to do because he used to throw one hundred miles an hour and it didn't matter where he threw it. And so that's what we're kind of that's the journey he's going to be on on top of, hoping to get some of that velocity back once he gets back to a normal offseason. This offseason, it's learning how to pitch at that velocity by using all of your other pitches. Like he's got four pitches, he's got a curve ball, he's got a change up, he's obviously got the slider, which is his second best pitch. But if you use those correctly and if you locate them correctly, it all makes your fastball play up right. This is the journey that Harsel Waldrip has been on about learning how to use other pitches and location to make your fastball play up, so he can do it. And you know, we've talked about how competitive he is, how much of a psycho he is in the best way possible that we mean that as a compliment, and this is what we're talking about. He's gonna make adjustments. He's not just gonna sit there and beat his head against the wall trying the same thing over and over. At some point, the kid was gonna make an adjustment. And so it was just fun to see that tonight, and you know, it's something to track for the rest of the season and then moving into next season.

00:11:43
Speaker 1: And I think also it's worth mentioning that it is good as Spencer Strider was in twenty two and twenty three. Some may just think, Okay, well, if he's this good, if he's this elite, then if he needs to make an adjustment, that means that he's going to do it in a much quicker fashion than just your average pitcher when it comes to how he pitches. But that's not necessarily the case for elite star pitchers when the reason why they were elite or why they were among the best in the game. Is what has regressed a bit, right Like, it was his velocity, and it was the overall control of his fastball. And we're not just talking about one of the better fastballs in baseball. I think that if you asked around baseball, many would say that in terms of starters, Spencer had the best fastball in baseball in twenty two and twenty three. Everything that he did worked off the fastball. That's what made his other pitches elite. Well, now he's having to figure out, at least for the time being, how to use other pitches to make his fastball better. That's a complete one eighty in the overall mentality for a pitcher. So it's not so just because a pitcher is a superstar at one point in their career. If they've got to adjust what makes them so effective, if they've got to go about it in a different way, it may actually take them longer to do that than your normal pictures because they've been so used to having so much success off the same source. So that's what I'm saying. This isn't just a start where he's going to figure it out. When we talk about the off season, really needs to come for Spencer Strider and come in a successful way. Again, the confidence is there, he's going to figure it out, but you've got to be able to understand he's got to have time to do it as well.

00:13:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, and listen again, I'm gonna say this number again. In twenty twenty two, he threw his fastball sixty seven percent of the time. That's banana, that's what like relievers do. Like that as a starting pi that's crazy. That's crazy. And so not having that weapon, or at least is the version of that weapon that he had, is going to be a massive adjustment. Not a little adjustment, a massive adjustment. And again we're still hoping that some of that velocity comes back next year. We're not just completely given up on that. But in the meantime, you know, he's kind of kind of make do with what he has, and tonight was just you know, tonight was a good step in that direction. Again, it was one start. We have no idea he might go back to his normal usage the next start. This might have been all about the Marlins. You know, this might not have been anything he was doing other than just matchups. So we're not gonna draw any conclusions off of one start, but it's just a data it's a data point to kind of mark and then we'll see what the next one looks like.

00:14:30
Speaker 1: Never underestimate the the the power of a positive data point as things. If that line graph that's measuring whatever in your life, if if that, if that line graph that you're seeing keeps going down, down, down down, but you eventually get to that data point that just goes up. Never underestimate the power of how positive that side is. But speaking of positive developments, we certainly saw one for Drake Baldwin tonight as well, despite the loss. A good game from Drake Baldwin, and right now that may matter more than you think. What has come become a very close race for the nail Rookie of the Year more than just a moment. After a word from our partners.

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00:16:12
Speaker 1: FT sent you, so Stephen, you know, coming into the second half of the season, we made it clear that one of the biggest storylines that was gonna be there for Braves Country to follow was how Drake Baldwin and the NL Rookie of the Year race will would continue to shape up as time went on. The AL Rookie of the Year Race it's taken care of. Nick Kirks has been unbelievable for a few months now. Roman Anthony, I don't think he's gonna make it close, but he is unbelievable to watch as well. But on the n L side of things, many have reason to watch Drake Baldwin. He was a clear favorite about a month ago, and of course if he wins, that could mean extra draft capital and what should be a very critical draft for the Braves in twenty twenty six. But the thing is is for Drake Baldwin is that it now has become a much closer, and it actually has become a three man race. You know about you know, two weeks ago Isaac Collin of the Brewers, when the Brewers were just unbelievably hot. To believe you had that fifteen game hitting streak, rightfully so our winning streak. Isaac Collins was a big reason. He was playing better than Drake Baldwin at that time. But both of those players have cooled off over the past week or so, and Cade Horton, pitcher for the Chicago Cubs, has entered the fray as well. So we're basically now in a three horse race for the NL Rookie of the Year campaign. The point that I'm getting at is, unfortunately it's become much closer race than any of us had hoped. But the fortunate thing is it very much is still in Drake Baldwin's hands to be able to make the most of this.

00:17:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, so if you look at the odds on draft kings, you know, Horton, Collins, and Baldwin are all very close, like it's one guy is like a one three fourhead game away from take the lead. So it's very much neck and neck. The thing that's gonna hurt Drake is that the Brewers and the Cubs are both playing for playoff spots. Like Cad Horton and Isaac Collins are doing this for teams that are winning and therefore are just gonna be in the spotlight more. Drake's playing for a team that's you know, a million games under five hundred in back of a playoff spot. So he's got to be that much better. And unfortunately for Drake, he has cooled off quite a bit. I think his last multi hit game was on like August ninth. He's been pretty pedestrian for about two weeks now. He did have a Homer and a walk tonight, which is what you're talking about. So there's a nice bounce back, and he was quite literally the Braves only offense tonight. But yeah, I mean other gout. You know, he Drake certainly hasn't had quite the second half that he had in the first half, and so he's allowed other guys to kind of come into the race. But also you got to give those guys. I mean, those guys are just having great seasons as rickies. I mean, Kate Horden's got like a two to eight eer for a team that's currently got a playoff spot. So you know, some of it is just you got to give credit to other good players. But it's still such a close race. This is not a Nick Kurt situation. Whether it's just a runaway winner. Drake is probably one hot week away from being the clear favorite. Again, that's how close it is. So good night tonight. You know, we looked it up. He's he's played in about seventy percent of the Braves games in August. I think he DHD in two of those and caught the rest, So you know, I would probably prefer to be more like seventy five percent, but to be honest, Sean Murphy and Marcelo Azuna have been just as cold lately. Sean Murphy just broke a massive I think he was like, oh for thirty four or something like that. He broke that last night. Marcel went into has gone into a pretty big slump himself. So I'm sure Brian Snicker is just you know, mixing and matching on any night just to try to get some production out of any of those guys. But again, Baldwin has played about seventy percent of the time. You can't really say he's not been given a chance. He's just he's just gone cold. And listen, he's a rookie. I mean, he wasn't gonna run a one forty WRC plus all season long. He was gonna hit up some cold spells. So we'll see, we'll see if they keep giving him the playing time. I very much hope they do, and hopefully he can get hot and put this, you know, get out back out in front of this thing and maybe bring it home.

00:20:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I agree that you know, to the point that you know he has called off a bit that that certainly is a factor in it. And I know that you got to get all three of the guys playing times as well. But but the one thing that I feel, the one thing where I think the Braves are making a mistake, is if he's not the priority of the three to be given the playing time. Like in my opinion, we looked it up over the past two weeks, Sean Murphy had played six times, Baldwin had played eight times, Marcelo Zun now has played thirteen times. There should not be that much of a difference between Baldwin and Azuna's playing time. In my opinion, Baldwin should be playing between DH and catcher. If it's a two week span, he should be playing double digit games. And it's not even about Rookie of the year, nor is it about that draft pick that should play into it. But set that to the side. It's also just simply Baldwin going through a stretch of the season where he's had the wear and tear of the majority of the season now wearing on him. He needs to work through that right if he's going to eventually be the Braves primary catcher. They've also been sitting him quite a bit against left handed pitching. I don't think that's doing him any favors. When he has clearly been producing against left handed pitching. These are opportunities that you want him to continue to have a six in because that's where it's going to allow for him to be able to have a better chance of sustaining it. As the league becomes more used to him, he gets more playing time, it becomes more important for him to play every day in the future. So that's why I feel like it makes sense for them to play him as much as possible. I don't mean to be on my soapbox. From my perspective, it comes down to winning work in the year and getting that extra draft pick, but there are many other factors that are going to be more important in the future when we're trying to win again. That if Baldwin has success now, it lines him up for a better chance to have success again when it matters more in the future.

00:22:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't love that they're just kind of blanket sitting him against left handed pitching like they have the last couple of weeks. And even if you don't believe in like his early success, you know, it's not a ton of games. It's a small sample size of splits that he's had success. And even if you don't believe those are fully real, you still want him to develop against lefties. You still want him to see lefties. And I've talked about this before about how quickly now in the Major's left handed hitters get platooned, like most of a lot of teams don't even let you try, or they let you try for a very small amount of time, and if you have don't have success, they're just You're just a platoon guy. Drake has had success against lefties. He's actually hit lefties or at one point he had hit lefties better this year than right He's I don't know if that's still true, but I do want to see him play against lefties again. Even if you don't believe his success is completely real, if it might be a little noise in there, you still want him to develop. So but all that being said, you know, I think what has cost Drake in terms of where he is in the Rookie of the Year right now, is he just hasn't played as well when he's gotten the chances. And so that's really what you know, He's just gonna have to find it again. He's just gonna have to get hot, you know again. He's been playing about seventy percent of the time. It could definitely be more. I wish they would play him more against lefties. But the big thing is, like tonight, when he's in there, he's got to you know, he's got to produce. So and again he's going up against two guys that are in playoff races, and that's you're already kind of playing with one arm tied behind your back. Because there are voters who don't like giving these awards to guys who are on bad teams. I don't agree with that, but that's how they you know, that's how they view it. Now it'd be pretty hypocritical. Since Nick Kurtz is running away with the you know, Rookie of the Year from you know, the A's who are a million games back, that actually should help Drake a little bit. Kind of ignore that argument. You know, Boston is in the playoffs and in the A's or not. But Nick Kirk is running away from Roman Anthony and Rookie of the Year. So that should help Drake. But he's got to play better, pretty.

00:24:49
Speaker 1: Simply, absolutely, and hopefully he'll be giving those chances. And like I say, I know that many people will have different perspectives. But the thing is is that there's just there's plenty of reasons to give Baldwin his man each chances is possible, And to your point, hopefully this all quiets down if tonight can be the start of another seven to ten day stretch where Baldwin can really once again set himself ahead of the pack in the l Rookie of the Year chase. But speaking of more positive developments, I know tonight is not the best example, but overall here recently the Braves offense has looked clearly better than they were in the first half. What's been the big difference why? And is it Does it mean that a corner has been turned for the future. We'll discuss that in just a moment.

00:25:33
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00:26:15
Speaker 2: You should give it to me, I'll.

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00:26:36
Speaker 1: Obviously, one of the things that has made this second half a bit more bearable than the first half was, you know, we knew that with the pitching injuries, that you know, the riding was on the wall, that we just were not going to make this season. You know, the goals that many of us have had for this season, we're just not going to be breaching. We're going to make the playoffs. Call it a lost season, what have you. But the clear thing is that it's been a bit more fun because the offense has improved over the past six weeks and looking it up. One of the biggest reasons why is because this team clearly has improved in one area that was one of the two biggest complaints about this offense over the past thirteen to fourteen months going into the Alsto break. They have clearly taken a step forward with runners in scoring position in the second half of the season. So far, the Braves right now are eleventh in Major League Baseball in offense with runners in scoring position. They have a one to twenty eight WRC plus with runners in scoring position. That is really really encouraging, in a big difference from where they were for a bunch of twenty four and the first half of twenty five. Now. The reason why they're having that success their overall approach at the plate has been quite good. They are with runners in scoring position in the second half of the year, they are six in strikeout rate and second in walk rate. This team has showed patience, they've shown better selectivity at the plate, and it's led to better results. That is definitely encouraging. But Steven, while it's encouraging and it's an improvement, we're looking for sustainability. We're looking to get back to being a winning organization. So we need to figure out how to find success and sustain it. And while it's encouraging to see this improvement, I think this is only a half or third of the offensive equation that we need to really get back to where we were a couple of years ago.

00:28:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's interesting. The offense is undoubtedly better right now than it was earlier in the year. Now. Obviously, tonight's game, Edward Cabrera just just smoked him for seven inning heats. I mean, he's he's kind of nasty to be. I mean, the guy those one hundred miles an hour with a does a ninety three mile in our change.

00:28:44
Speaker 1: Up when he's owing like a I think he's getting a bit more consistent. But the one thing that I failed to mention in the first part of the show, he can be just as impressive as Sandy Alcantara or Contra or your Perez when he's on. He's the one who won the best of the league.

00:29:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's nasty. He's nasty as hell. And the Braves had nothing for him tonight. Yeah, had ten strikeouts and seven innings and not much hard contact at all. So tonight's game, notwithstanding, the offense has looked better. But like Sean said, what we're looking for is a model that is sustainable for six months. And I was watching I was actually watching the game yesterday and I was thinking about this, like, is this current model of the Braves offense sustainable for six months? And what's it being built on? Right, It's being built on a tonne of walks, which is sustainable? Walks are I think walks are maybe the most underrated offensive stat in the sport. I actually have come to believe that walk rate, on an individual level, may be the most important offensive stat because it reveals so much about the type of hitter you are. Like if you go if you just sort, if you just go through any stats page, any any website you like to use, and just sort all the best hitters in baseball by walk rate, and then you go look at the names. You'll see the best hitters in baseball. I mean you'll see Ronald Cuna, Junior, Lonsoto, Aaron Judge, Shoheo tany like Price Harper, Kyle Schwarber, like the best hitters in baseball take a bunch of walks, and I have come to believe that walk crade is is very important. And so the fact that the Braves have increased their walk rate as much as they have in the second half is maybe the most encouraging part of what has happened, because I do believe you can build a sustainable long term offense with walk right. In fact, I think you have to have that as part of the equation, and this is something I think the Braves have missed, you know, especially when Acunya's out. Akunya and Olson have always been their best guys in terms of walk rate, but now you've got other guys joining the party, and I think that's crucial. You know, Profar is a big part of that. You know, Marcel has been walking a bunch. Ozzie has been walking way more this year than he has. Michael Harris is still not taking any walk but it is what it is at this point. But I think walk grade is important. So that's one thing. But the other thing it's being built on the offense right now, is it's being built on this like white hot Michael Harris run, which I don't really believe in. If I'm being one hundred person honest, I'm I'm not gonna poo poo it completely because it it's valid what he's done. But if you're asking me, is this sustainable for six months? I don't believe it. Again, he doesn't ever walk and I just went through a whole list of reasons why I think walk grade is so important, So I don't believe that part is sustainable. The other part that is worrying to me is that the homers are so so far down, Like Matt Olsen has two homers since the All Star Break. You know, Ronald Cueter Junior has three. Obviously he was hurt. But the thing I want to see from this offense, because they built it around a bunch of sluggers, is I want to see walks and homers because those are the two things with this crewup of players that I know for a fact they can sustain for six months because I've seen him do it. What I don't think you can sustain it on is hoping Michael Harris is just out of his mind. Our jerks and profar are going crazy. I think I think the the walks are crazy encouraging. I want to see the homers get back to where we saw them in like twenty twenty not even twenty twenty three. What they what they did in twenty twenty three is crazy, and I gotta see three hundred and seven homers in a season again. But like just in the top, you know, top ten in baseball in homers, that's perfectly attainable for this group, and in my opinion, it's sustainable because the Braves are some of the streakiest hitters you'll ever see, and the one way to score runs even when you're going through bad streaks is homers, because somebody can take a walk and one guy can pop a homer and it's two runs, right, It's just two runs instantly. And that's what the Braves were built on for years. Is all right, we might not have we might only have two or three guys going at the moment, the rest of the lineup as cold as ice, but we're popping homers, we're still scoring runs, we can still win games. That to me is the sustainable version of the offense that they've been missing for the last two years is walks and homers, and that's what I want to get back to and the walks have been fantastic to watch. I want to see the power come back in this lineup. I want to see matt Olsen. You know, matt Olsen's gonna hit like I mean, He's got twenty homers or nineteen or twenty homers through you know, six hundred plate appearances. That's kind of wild, to be honest with you. You know, there's just not the same. I think Marcelazuna has like twenty homers. I think twenty leads the team. There's like fifty guys in baseball that have hit more than twenty homers, and none of them are Braves. So that's the part I want to see. That's the next step where I think this offense can sustain itself for six months is walks and homers, because that's the personnel they built it around.

00:34:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, the difference between a six week sample size and a six month sample size and what's going to lead to success in the second half of the season, which basically, you know, it's been well five weeks, we'll give it five weeks or so. But in the second half of the season. Here are a couple of homer tallies for the Braves. Michael Harris leads the team with ten home runs. Jerkson Profar and Marcelo Zuna are second tied with seven. So Michael Harris has hit ten, Jerkson Profar has hit seven. Austin Riley, Ronaldcunya Junior and Matt Olsen have combined for seven home runs in the second half of the season. So it's really encouraging, yes, players, but again that's the difference between a six weeks and a six month sample size. When it comes to sustaining offense, you've got to be able to have your best players contributing. That's the first thing. So that's to Steven's point, it's encouraging to see what we've seen in the second half, but I think it's still okay to question how sustainable it is. That's the first thing. The second thing to Stevens point about walking consistently and hitting homers consistently is the one thing that that does is that it makes the margin of error for the pictures to work with so much smaller, which plays into what the Braves can do, because if you're consistently making pictures work out of the stretch with the worry of runners on base, but you're also consistently taking advantage of taking their mistakes deep. That's where you're going to excel as an offense. That's what really helped the Braves out in twenty twenty three. And if you can get those two things working, not only does it matter over sustaining your offense over a six month sample size, that also is a very good remedy or a very good mixture of success to find wins in October when it matters most.

00:35:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'll never forget watching the two series versus the Mets at the very end of the season, when the Braves and the Mets were in this you know, Titanic battle for the division. The Braves would come all the way back the Mets were coming to town. They had de Graham, Scherzer, and Bassett lined up to pitch in that series, and the Braves just beat them with homers like Dansby Swanson homer and in every game Matt Olson homer and in every game Austin Riley hit a couple of homers like. Those guys didn't make a lot of mistakes, those pitchers, I mean, but the ones they made, the Braves put them in the seats. And that's how you beat good pitching. And that's what I mean by sustainability. You don't need nine guys in your lineup getting hot at the same time to score runs. When you're hitting homers, you just need one or two guys and a couple of guys taking walks, and you can you can survive the cold streaks because let's be honest, we know by now this offense, the collection of players it has, they're gonna go through cold The individual players are going to go through some massive cold streaks. Michael Harris is gonna go through massive cold streaks. Austin Riley, Matt Olsen, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albi's they're all streaky as hell. I mean, they're gonna go through crazy cold streaks. How do you survive that? You hit homers, because then you don't need nine guys hitting, You only need two or three guys hitting. The thing that Braves have missed the last couple of years is the home run ball. Right when you're not hitting homers, you need four or five or six guys in your lineup hitting. When you're hitting homers, you don't. And that's what this lineup was built on. It was built on. Okay, we got a bunch of streaky hitters, but they're gonna hit a ton of homers. So that's how we survive. And that's what I kind of want to get back to, quite honestly, because this last two years of trying other stuff, you know, you know, all we live and die too much on the homer. We need to try other stuff that hasn't worked. It just hasn't. And what they've done the last six weeks is fun. But again, I just don't buy it. I don't if Michael Harris is gonna be the best player in baseball. Yeah, I mean, maybe they could sustain it, but does anybody really buy that it's gonna be the case over a six month sample. I don't. Jerkson Profar is I think it will help a lot. I think Jerckson is a big piece of this going into next year, maybe one of the biggest outside of Austin Riley. But you know, having a Kunya Olsen, Riley, Baldwin, Murphy, Profar, whoever's dhing, having the Harris, Ozzy, having the Goose, having those guys hit homers and take walks. I think that's how you sustain an offense. For six months, and I know people are gonna push back on that. I know people think they lived and died by the homer too much. But when they were doing that, when they were living and dying by the homer too much, they were one of the best offenses in baseball. And ever since they stopped doing that, they've been a very metio okrah offense at best. So I mean, you tell me, was it really all that bad? Wouldn't you just gladly take that again? The twenty twenty two I'm not even talking about the twenty three offense, the twenty twenty two offense, where they're still one of the best offenses of big and yeah, they lived and died by the homer, but they were still one of the best offenses of baseball. Ever since they've gone to this new stuff of kind of de emphasizing the homer, they've been a mediocre offense at best, and sometimes one of the worst in the sport. So I want to see them go back to hit homers and take walks. And I think that's how you sustain for six months and survive the cold streaks from the individual players that are going to inevitably come with this collection of hitters, and.

00:39:29
Speaker 1: Never forget how much of a role hitting that homer at crucial times played in the braves twenty twenty one World Series run. I know that we're nearly four years away from that, but I again I labeled the World Series run for the Braves the bombs of the bullpen. Their ability to hit homers consistently and their ability to limit from that bullpen was the big two biggest keys to their success. So but yeah, the homers will come, you know, I do believe that the homers will come. But at the end of the day, it is great to see what we're seeing, and I do think that this team, it has taken a significant step forward in terms of bettering their overall approach of the plate in crucial moments and taking walks from a year ago. But you've got to get your best players back, and I think that's a big key when we talk about hitting more home runs. Your three best home run hitters, Austin Riley, Ronald Acune Junior and Matt Olson in need of hitting homers, and hopefully through a healthy off season, we'll get that back. Stephen, anything else from you as we wrap up this edition of The Hammer, Territory Podcast.

00:40:31
Speaker 2: No, we're moving into September. Listen, it's not the season that Breaves wanted. It's not gonna be quite the same fire and energy in every game as we're used to at this time of year when they're fighting for a playoff spot. But we're gonna cover the team just the same. Right, We're gonna cover the team for get, you know, four shows a week, just like we have been. There's gonna be storylines that matter into the off season. You know, we're probably gonna get into some more big picture stuff in September, you know, the twenty twenty five roster, the twenty twenty six roster, the offseason potential moves. You know, it'll probably be a little bit more big picture stuff in September. But still we're going to cover the team exactly the same. So we appreciate you guys as always listening, downloading. You know, it's a big help to us and we do appreciate it.

00:41:18
Speaker 1: Plus, as time goes along, we're going to have, you know, big time revelations, you know, from all of us that are going to make it worth you tuning into. For instance, I'll go ahead and you know, let a little secret be known when it comes to me and Steven. Many know that I am a die hard Balls fan and Steven is a die hard Alabama fan. Well, I'm in a bit of a conundrum this year because it just so happens that Alabama's starting quarterback, Ty Simpson is from my high school alma mater. He won a state title for my high school where I went in Tennessee. So I'm bought in a bit to Alabama's success for Ty Simpson being successful. I still hate Bama. I still want him to lose every single game all he has a good game, especially against Tennessee. But that's the type of dilemmas that we're facing. That's the type of stuff that normally we would not have to worry about if the Braves were playing successful baseball. But we have to face those realities this year. So interesting topics like that will certainly also take up time when it comes to the Hammer Territory podcast. And can't thank you enough for tuning in for these revelations that at other points in time I would not feel so comfortable discussing.

00:42:33
Speaker 2: And your quarterback is at UCLA, No, what what.

00:42:39
Speaker 1: Happened to your quarterback that he went to Ucla.

00:42:43
Speaker 2: Yeah he got he yeah he went to But you got UCLA's quarterback.

00:42:47
Speaker 1: We did get UCLA's quarter Guys, made like a trade. We did. We did, We did make a trade.

00:42:52
Speaker 2: I'm sure that'll be fine.

00:42:53
Speaker 1: It should be fine. You know, we've gone through a lot of change here recently when it comes to the balls. You know, some bad, some good. What's Chall's record over the past three years versus Tennessee. I'm like tra tuning into this edition of the Hammer Territory podcast. You could bind Stephen at b Underscore Outliers on Twitter slash x. My name is Sean Coleman. You can buy me at stats sac on Twitter slash x as well. Hammer Territory across all forms of social media. Part of the Foul Territory family of podcasts. And we're here to have fun. At the end of the day, we're here to have fun. We're here to talk braves, have fun, banter back and forth a little bit, but give you the most entertaining coverage of the team that we possibly and informative coverage of the team that we possibly can. Until next time, go Braves. We'll talk to you again soon here on the Hammer Territory podcast,