The Show: Rookie Sleepers, Positional Value, and More

00:00:00
Speaker 1: You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football Show, which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch the show live this offseason, you can head to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF will be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern without further ado.

00:00:18
Speaker 2: Here's this week's episode.

00:00:33
Speaker 3: Welcome In. Welcome In. It's the Late Round Fantasy Football Show sponsored by DraftKings. David Kitchen here alongside a boss, JJ zchereson JJ. How's it going?

00:00:44
Speaker 1: It's good Man had a week off, you know it. It's one of those vacations though. You guys know this if you're a parent to younger kids. You know, my son's three, my daughters seven. My daughter's pretty easy to you know, she's a very very good kid. Good too, don't get me wrong, but he's my daughter. My daughter is a rule follower, just one of the kindest souls you'll ever meet. And she's just very easy going and you know, easy to parent.

00:01:14
Speaker 2: We're very lucky from that perspective.

00:01:16
Speaker 3: CJ.

00:01:17
Speaker 1: I love him to death, but he's a three year old toddler. And my experience from girl to boy has also been boys are wild, Like he's just insane in a good way, in a fun way. But it doesn't allow for that, you know, typical relaxation that you get, you know, on vacations and such.

00:01:33
Speaker 2: So it was a lot of fun.

00:01:35
Speaker 3: You know.

00:01:35
Speaker 2: We were there with a couple other families. We had.

00:01:38
Speaker 1: We had six parents and eight kids with us last week at the beach and at the pool. It was a good time. I'm glad to be back. Though I like to do this stuff like this is my everyday life. It was a week was a perfect amount of time to be away in my opinion.

00:01:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, did you feel like when some of the news broke We'll talk about in a second. I'll have to say, like what is But did you feel like you needed to kind of like get updated about it? You're like, nah, I'll check on that later. Like how does connected were you?

00:02:05
Speaker 1: I mean I saw people talking about Travis Hunter a lot, and you know I was. I was at least checking in on that stuff. But no, I mean I was pretty disconnected. I didn't I don't think I missed many picks and slow best ball drafts that I was in, but you know, I was able to at least, you know, detach from from the world. But I also see a comment says, well, we all know who the golden child is.

00:02:25
Speaker 2: Guys, that's not what I mean. I think you you love every child.

00:02:29
Speaker 1: Individually for who they are and what they provide, you know, as humans, and it's it's honestly like fun and entertaining. That seed is more unpredictable at this point, you know, like anyone with a toddler knows exactly what I'm talking about. Toddler's are just noting that people always talk about the terrible twos. Threes are way way more difficult than twos. Threes are insane because they can talk back to you and say.

00:02:51
Speaker 3: Stuff and throw stuff and do stuff. I think the oldest are just they're the rule followers, man.

00:02:57
Speaker 2: I think.

00:02:59
Speaker 3: You know they the and then like things get more lax as the.

00:03:03
Speaker 2: Are the youngest.

00:03:04
Speaker 1: I'm the youngest in my family, and I mean, to be fair, I was a rule follower, but.

00:03:09
Speaker 2: I could get away.

00:03:09
Speaker 1: I could have gotten away with anything that I wanted and I yeah, yeah, wink wink, No I was. I'm definitely a rule follower, and I wish I wasn't, but I'm a rule follower.

00:03:20
Speaker 3: We have someone who says, preach three by far is the worst. Listen, you you have to go through threes so you can appreciate the fours.

00:03:29
Speaker 2: That's right. That's that's what they said.

00:03:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's all it's all good from there.

00:03:35
Speaker 2: So it's just it's just it's like it's like any and.

00:03:38
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure my daughter was like this too. It's just that you forget right, it was four years ago. And so with CJ, you know, it's just one of those things where like today I got him dressed for school and and he I put a yellow shirt on him and he's just like I was about to and he's like, I'm not wearing that, you know, Like it's.

00:03:54
Speaker 3: Like okay, Like no, well well yeah.

00:03:57
Speaker 1: I'm like okay, then you can go pick out a shirt and he's like, no, I don't want to wear I don't want to go do that. And then I'm like, when you're wearing this shirt, he won in the end he's wearing a grave Digger shirt instead of the.

00:04:08
Speaker 2: But sometimes you just gotta Sometimes you just gotta go.

00:04:11
Speaker 1: I don't like giving in, I really really don't, because I think it also can teach them, you know, the wrong habits.

00:04:16
Speaker 2: But sometimes when.

00:04:17
Speaker 1: You're like, we gotta get out here, you gotta just uh, you gotta just be like, fine, all right, grave digger shirt it is, let's go.

00:04:25
Speaker 3: All right.

00:04:26
Speaker 2: Uh.

00:04:27
Speaker 3: I don't know how to transition from that. So I'll just say, if you want to get the best info, if you you know, if you say, hey, I want that info, give it, give it to me now, JJ, you can if you go to late round dot com and order the Prospect Guide, because we have one hundred and seventy something pages of the Prospect Guide. And uh, I all I know is I reformatted or formatted a table that JJ sent me.

00:04:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna talk about this on the mail bag that goes out on Friday. But we've got a lot of feedback about the new scoring system for the app's the zapp model and how the scaling changed. You know. I talked about that on a mail bag episode and I think the last one that I did, And so I've got a lot of feedback, more than I expected. Usually I can predict like what kind of feedback I'll get, and I'm like, Okay, I can do this. I know I'm going to get some people in some responses, but it's going to be okay because I can just forward them to kitchen.

00:05:26
Speaker 2: I'm just kidding because because.

00:05:28
Speaker 1: How you know, we'll be able to handle it. This one was even more than I expected, to be honest. So basically the zapp model scaling changed and now you're seeing better, in my opinion, a better representation of the differential between one prospect to another, whereas before it was more based on percentiles and such, and so I changed it this year to have that scaling be better. And a lot of people are saying, well, I want to compare these prospects to prospects and other guides and such, which I get. You know, it's not it's not actionable truly, because we already have seen these guys play in the NFL, and like especially guys that you know from the first iteration of the prospect guy there, those scores are irrelevant. Not only has a model change, but those players have played in the NFL for four years, right, So it's just it's.

00:06:13
Speaker 2: Just not that relevant.

00:06:14
Speaker 1: But from just a content and curiosity standpoint, I get it. I get that you want to sort of compare where you know, Malik Neighbors was compared to some of these guys, like to Jordan Tyson or what have you.

00:06:24
Speaker 2: And by the way, Milik Neighbors is like.

00:06:26
Speaker 1: It's still a lot better just because he was such an elite prospect. But what I did was I created a table that shows the old scores, so one hundred ninety five, ninety eighty five.

00:06:40
Speaker 2: I actually posted this in the Discord this week, but.

00:06:42
Speaker 1: It'll be in the and then it will show the ZAPP two point zero score and like what the equivalent kind of is. So I will have that in the post draft version of the guide.

00:06:51
Speaker 2: It will be there. It'll be at the end of the guide. We'll have a little table for you.

00:06:55
Speaker 1: So if you're curious, is to you know, Jordan Tyson, Let's say that he finishes with a score of ninety three in the ZAP model, what does that mean for the old ZAP model And you can kind of guestimate where that would be, probably like a ninety seven, ninety eight something like that, so it's more in like the the JSN range or so.

00:07:15
Speaker 2: So uh, yeah, hopefully you guys will get some help with that.

00:07:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, And you know, I think it's something that you know, I want to show people that I'm trying to get the best product out there and listen.

00:07:28
Speaker 3: All right, So we also want to say thank you. You mentioned Malik Neighbors and I can't quit him because in an early best ball draft over there own DraftKings this week in a slow draft, it was like, middle of round two. I'm not you know, I just see the potential there for.

00:07:49
Speaker 2: I got autoed. I got autoed Molik Neighbors.

00:07:53
Speaker 3: If you don't think too yeah, if you don't pick an eight hours in a slow draft on DraftKings, you will get autoed. And sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. But we do want to say thank you to DraftKings for helping to sponsor this show. We always appreciate the you know, the feedback that we get from people that are trying DraftKings the best ball product for the first time. It's it's really a cool thing. Like you don't have to go ham on early best balls, but it is cool to kind of get in there and say, oh wow, like these guys are going way later, like we'll talk about in a second, like Travis Hunter, he's going in the fourteenth or fifteenth round right now, and best Balls and that's a that's a start contrast from where he was last year. So we'll have a link and the description if you want to go there. Also, we'll have some rankings up there on Late Round dot com for the Early Best Ball if you're a Patreon member, so you can doal those and just import those and that will get you a good starting point to what we're doing. And yeah, the Early Best Ball contest, it's a million dollar prize. And it like stops when the draft stops. So you're drafting all these rookies not knowing where they are. The rookies are there, but you have no clue where they're going to be. So some of it's a little bit spraying and praying, but that's all right. We appreciate the folks at Draft Kings. The crown is yours, all right, Matt says, whoa, We're live on a Wednesday, early afternoon.

00:09:28
Speaker 2: This is this is usually when we do Yeah, I mean this is where this is. Let me do it. Yeah, we're just last week we didn't because I was in Florida.

00:09:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I just want to say to the podcast listeners, hey, just schedule it. Just schedule it, as you know, a work meeting on a Wednesday noon Eastern and join us here on the YouTube channel. All right, and with that JJ you mentioned it, let's get into it. It's today's news, today's fantasy news. All right. We're gonna start with I have a Hunter, because other than reporter coaching relationships, that probably is the biggest news item from the past week. You had a report coming out. Of course, we've heard some of the ruminations.

00:10:17
Speaker 1: This is what's driving me nuts. Can I just yell about this for a second.

00:10:20
Speaker 3: Yeh, yeah, yeah, yeah, you don't have to yell, but like a passionate response would be great.

00:10:24
Speaker 2: So I saw this was I was on the beach when all this was going on.

00:10:27
Speaker 1: This is when I was scrolling Twitter and I saw stuff pop up rap sheet reference that Travis Hunter was gonna play more corner and not play much, you know, like there was a special package kind of takeaway that people were having from whatever. Rap sheet wasn't reporting anything new, you guys, this is not a new report.

00:10:47
Speaker 2: He was referencing I think a Colleen.

00:10:48
Speaker 1: Wolf report from early from like a month and a half ago, which, by the way, if you go back and you listen to the Cell Candidates episode of the Late Round, on that episode, I talked about selling Travis Hunter because I thought that he was overrated in dynasty. His his you know, I don't want to take a w because you know, it's very early for that. But his value has changed, right, It's dropped from where we were in January to where we are now.

00:11:18
Speaker 2: So I feel good about that.

00:11:19
Speaker 1: Feel bad about how I was subjective with my evaluation of him last year. I'm really mad about that that I didn't just like you know that I was. I was making so many excuses for Travis Hunter last year. From a prospecting perspective, I think the model nailed Travis Hunter, to be honest, but I'll regardless of that. This report has been out there in different ways since January, and we're recycling this thing, and for whatever reason, when rap Sheet says it on.

00:11:49
Speaker 2: NFL Network, now everyone's running with it and.

00:11:52
Speaker 1: It's this big thing that people are reacting to in fantasy football and everything. Guys, in these scenarios, in these situations, this is exactly when you should go in the opposite direction what the market is doing. Right where if you see a really massive discount now on Travis Hunter, that's when you pounce and you you know, shoot off a random you know, mid second rounder or something for him, because we know that there's not gonna be that much value, especially in this draft and rookie drafts this year, and just see what happens and start that conversation throwing another random veteran or something to try to acquire Travis Hunter. Because look, I even on that show I talked about how, yes, I do think that Hunter's injury last year is a key driving point as to why all of this is happening right now. Because he gets injured, they trade for Jacoby Myers, Parker Washington emerges, and now all of a sudden, you look at their top three wide receivers and you're like, yeah, this really works in eleven personnel and three wide receiver sets.

00:12:46
Speaker 2: You got a great slot in Parker Washington.

00:12:49
Speaker 1: You have Jacoby Myers who can move inside out, and you have Brian Thomas who can stretch the field and play on the perimeter and play that role.

00:12:55
Speaker 2: So like, those three wide receivers work really well for an offense. But here's the thing. Guys get hurt.

00:13:01
Speaker 1: Things change, Just like things changed in an instant with Travis Hunter last year when he got injured, he was about to emerge as the guy in that offense.

00:13:09
Speaker 2: It was very evident that it was about to happen.

00:13:11
Speaker 3: And garbage time fourth quarter when he caught all those rams again peppered with passes.

00:13:17
Speaker 1: And so look, I think that Hunter is talented and good, and you know, is he like elite elite like his you can look at the prospect guy in the year two stuff like, I don't think that he looks that incredible from an advanced analytics standpoint in what he did last year, because part of the thesis with him is that, oh, even if it's limited, you know, even if his offensive snaps are limited, he'll probably have a really high targets per route run rate and like.

00:13:40
Speaker 2: At blah blah blah blah blah.

00:13:41
Speaker 1: And in hindsight, it's like, we should have definitely just ignored a lot of that and just gone with That's why I'm a little bit frustrated with the process that I took. I got a little bit scared to be like, because if you go back and listen to some of the shows last year, I'm like, his analytical profiles a little bit iffy, like there's a lot of question marks here. But then I'm like okay, but he was in the rooms with the wide receivers learning the offense, and he wasn't getting the same amount of reps.

00:14:04
Speaker 2: And you know, anytime he started.

00:14:05
Speaker 1: Making excuses for players, it's a bad thing for prospects. Regardless of all of that, now we're in this position where his value has tanked because of a report that is not even new, and it's crazy to me. So if you can get him really cheap right now, I'm fine with that. Because he even came out himself and was like, Hey, who told you this? You know on Twitter and whatnot.

00:14:25
Speaker 3: That's exactly what he said. He reposted a clip and said, who told you this? And I'm just going to give you the ADP right now. Of the four receivers on DraftKings, Parker Washington at sixty one, Brian Thomas Junior seventy four, yeah, Jacoby Meyers ninety seven, Travis Hunter way over at one sixty four. So even if you're avoiding him in your best Ball or in your redrafts for Dynasty and Best Ball, like you said, it's he might not be a bad stab to take.

00:15:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think.

00:15:02
Speaker 1: I think in season long he's not someone I'm gonna be really that interested because you have to you have to just like carry.

00:15:07
Speaker 2: That weight around.

00:15:07
Speaker 3: And I've already told us to avoid him.

00:15:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, like yeah, I just it's a really really tough kind of player to buy into, right, But look, an injury happens and all of a sudden, he's probably more of an eighty percent kind of player on offense, right, even if he's like a fifty percent or forty percent or something to start the season, one injury changes everything. He can line up everywhere like he's a he's a really capable wide receiver. So that's where I'm at with Travis Hunter. Maybe it's not a super strong stance, but my stance is that feel good about how I felt about him in January, and it hasn't really changed because the reporting hasn't really changed. The only thing that's changed is the way that people are interpreting the reporting. So keep that in mind whenever you hear these reports and hear all that happen.

00:15:47
Speaker 3: Okay, let's transition to the Eagles passing it to I just I separated this because there was a trade. Dontavian Wicks goes to the Eagles, So this opens up an interesting situation in Green Bay. But also we got to talk about this Eagles passing attack. Let's just assume we'll talk about the A. J. Brown thing and say, let's just assume that they're lying and the AJ Brown's not gonna be with the team on June first, JJ, what does this Eagles passing attack look like now? With Dotavian Wicks as a potential wide receiver too.

00:16:22
Speaker 2: I've liked Wix. I mean, like it's not really a secret if you listen to the show.

00:16:25
Speaker 1: I think that Wix is a pretty good wide receiver, and so I think that he's capable of being there too. DeVante Smith, though I've also been I feel like I have DeVante Smith as a target and fantasy every year. But I'm a big DeVante Smith fan. I thought he was a really good prospect. I think that he's more than capable of making somewhat of a leap, you know. I know that he's a little bit further in his career. Yeah, I've seen like the JSN, like he can do a JSN did. Jayson's not in the same part of his career because you know where DeVante Smith is. But I think that Smith is very capable of being a twenty eight percent target chair play. He's done that when when one of AJ Brown and Dallas got her been out. I mean, we've seen that happen with DeVante Smith, so very bullish on Davonte Smith. It sounds like this is like like when have we ever heard rumors this strong that doesn't end up happening? You know, it does feel like this is almost definitely a J.

00:17:14
Speaker 2: Brown is going to be a patriot. And I had talked about this on a Mailbag episode about AJ Brown.

00:17:20
Speaker 1: You know, is it an upgrade? Yeah, I'd probably say it's an upgrade overall. But my fear is that people are gonna take it a little bit too far, you know, that that there's just gonna be a little bit too much AJ Brown steam by the time August comes around, and that might scare me off a little bit. I'm just gonna say I'm at market, you know, with with Brown. I kind of alluded to that back on that show. But I'm excited for DeVante Smith. I'm excited for Dantavian Wix. I got a lot of Dantavian Wicks and Dynasty that I'm that I'm pumped about. And then on the Packers side. You know, since we're talking about it, we now have you know, the biggest problem with the Packers is their rotation. It's always been the rotation.

00:17:54
Speaker 3: Uh.

00:17:54
Speaker 1: And now we have a very clear three in Christian Watson, who I've actually taken a decent amount of early on in these Best Ball drafts. Christian Watson, Jaden Reid, who I also have taken a lot of in the Matthew Golden, who I've not taken a lot of, but we'll see. Like I'm keeping an open mind about Matthew Golden, I know that I've been more on the cell side than the byside for sure with Golden, because very rarely do we see this is just a probability driven thing. Very rarely do we see a prospect with as many red flags as he had who then didn't do anything as a rookie end up being something very significant in fantasy football. I just don't think it's going to be a player that absolutely burns us.

00:18:33
Speaker 2: Now. Could he go down the DeVante Adams path?

00:18:35
Speaker 1: Sure, I thought Adams was a better prospect in terms of, like, you know, not necessarily like when you include draft capital, but adjusted for draft capital, like if you're looking at how they compare to where they were drafted.

00:18:46
Speaker 2: Adams and the ZAM model looks better than Matthew Golden. Matthew Golden was like a high risk player.

00:18:51
Speaker 1: But you know, Adams started off really slow and then became something. But anytime you compare to an outlier like that, you're probably gonna lose out more often than not. So I'm trying to be level headed about this. Matthew Golden, you know, didn't have a great collegiate production profile, blew up towards the end of his college career that I think elevated him in the draft. That in the forty time, and what he did at the Combine and then last year he just couldn't find the field enough. Slash wasn't very effective when he was on the field. He had like a one point three to one point four yards prout run ray, which is fine for rookie, but it's not like elite, you know. And so I look at what Christian Watson did last year. I thought he played the best football of his life last year. And I'm really excited about the possibility of Jayden Reid playing more on the perimeter like both him and Josh Downs. The guys who have been really trapped in a slot finally have this opportunity this year to maybe play a little bit more on the outside. And if that happens, they're both very talented players. I'm going to be in on that. Like I think Downs is really undervalued right now in best Ball. It's just a you know, a matter of will those coaches give them that opportunity. I'm willing to buy into that because at the very least, they're going to play a similar role as they played, So they're going to give you some production or some spiked weeks, whatever the case may be.

00:20:03
Speaker 2: But there's a ceiling there.

00:20:04
Speaker 1: There's a clear path to getting more volume and playing more So I like both both those guys, But but Jaden Reid in particular with the Packers, he could play a little bit more on the perimeter and that would be very good for his fantasy. Valcame.

00:20:15
Speaker 3: Is there any situation where you think aj Brown just lands in a smash spot.

00:20:20
Speaker 2: I think the Patriots are one of the smash spots. Like, that's one of the best.

00:20:23
Speaker 1: I mean, Romeo Dobbs I said this whenever the free agency show happened. It's like he's fine I don't. I just don't think he's like a really really I got autoed Romeo Dobbs. I was so mad because I loved Romeo dobs last year, you know, when we like he was one of my highest roster players because he was like a fifteenth round pick for most of the summer. You know, now it's just not he's a single ditch round pick. And it's just a difficult thing to buy into when I think that he's like a solid player, like a wide receiver two on a real team wide receiver three kind of ceiling in fantasy AJ Brown would I mean in New England, he could, he could do work. It's just that my fear is that a lot of people are going to just make the natural tie to Drake May what he can do. The lack of competition there, you know of like really really great competition and AJ Brown being AJ Brown like he's a beast. I said this on the show, like like AJ Brown had a down season, but his down season is still way better than any like ninety five percent of wide receivers in football.

00:21:20
Speaker 2: You know, like he's still a good player.

00:21:23
Speaker 1: I do think that there's probably he's probably in that downward trajectory right now.

00:21:26
Speaker 2: But he's still a very good player. The fear, though, is that it just gets out of hand.

00:21:30
Speaker 1: So I'm just trying to like project what the market might be doing here. Maybe it doesn't and so we'll be in But I think New England's a great spot for him.

00:21:37
Speaker 3: Overall Shenanigans, they get out of hand. I'm with you there, all right, let's talk Kirk Cousins in Vegas.

00:21:45
Speaker 2: I forgot that he went to Vegas.

00:21:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, because we had this a big board and this is like I was kind of excited because it's the only name, you know, on this list of available free agents that we've had answered so far, so I get to mark them off the list. But he's in Vegas, and now there's all this talk about Mendoza and Cousins similar situation in Atlanta, and so you know, I don't want to make this a best ball show, but I'm I'm already having and seeing issues of like trying to choose between and figure out what to do there or just stay away.

00:22:26
Speaker 1: You know, Look, I would be shocked if Mendoza is not starting the second half of the season at the very least, right, I'd be pretty surprised if he's not under center. I think that this was a very smart move by Vegas, like a really good signing because you know, you get another guy who will shop at Kohle's with your with your quarterback.

00:22:45
Speaker 2: Uh, you know, you get Honestly, it's funny.

00:22:47
Speaker 1: Like the personality wise and the way they kind of approach things is not that they're both just kind of quirky, like interesting.

00:22:53
Speaker 3: There's gonna be some collabse there for sure.

00:22:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're just like a wholesome kind of they embrace.

00:22:57
Speaker 3: They embrace the you know that you like that type of stuff.

00:23:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, they don't. They don't run away. For I respect that. I can respect exactly.

00:23:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, Mendoza, Mendoza is the same way. It's just corny, but he's not like Russell Wilson corny. You know, Russell Wilson is like Russell Wilson Corny is like he's trying to act hard way, whereas no, this is just what Mendoes is, is just what Kirk Cousins is.

00:23:19
Speaker 2: So I respect that.

00:23:20
Speaker 1: So I think from like a personality perspective, I bet they mesh. But I don't know, man, I have a hard time, you know, usually with a first overall pick and a first rounder even top half of the first round. Quarter My general mantra is that quarterbacks are gonna play sooner than you think. You know, It's just it's just how it usually goes. There's a lot of pressure. Vegas isn't structurally built to be super competitive, and you know, why why just ride Kirk Cousins all of Yr one when Mendoz is a relatively ready quarterback. It's just that, from like a ceiling perspective, there are question marks about like how awesome of a prospect he is, but he's at least like ready and pro pro ready, and so you know, from from that perspective, I think we'll see Mendoza at some point this year. And from a basketball perspective, it's gonna be really hard for me to go, like, I hope we get a dis kind of Mendoza. Not that I'm gonna be drafting a ton of them, but like, that's the second half of the year that's gonna be way. That's just way more important than fantasy fotball in general, but definitely in best ball, where you know, each of those playoff weeks are just so important to have active players.

00:24:21
Speaker 3: All right, We're a little over a week away from finding out where Jeremiah Love goes, and then you know, we can we can figure out what's gonna happen after that. But there's just so much smoke about him being drafted in the top five, all this talk about the Titans loving him. If he doesn't go, then the Giants can draft him. I want to I want to point you to a tweet from Peter Schrager says, I got a text from a respected NFLGM in response to a heated discussion we had on the Schreger Hour over whether a team can really take a safety downs in the top five in twenty twenty six. Throw positional value out this year food for thought. So when it comes to positional value and love and safety with downs, what's your talk? What's your take on this whole concept.

00:25:14
Speaker 1: So one of the very first episodes of the Late Round podcast was on positional value, because there was it was around the time that Saquon Barkley was drafted. Uh, it might have been before that, whatever, but but I remember when Dave Gettelman uh talked about positional value being a bunch of crock is what he said.

00:25:34
Speaker 2: Right, The easy.

00:25:35
Speaker 1: Anytime something like this happens, where like you're trying to explain a concept, I think it's really helpful to go to the extreme with a hypothetical, Right, I do that on the podcast all the time, and I'm gonna do it on the mailbag this week, but not for this topic but another one.

00:25:48
Speaker 2: But just think of it this way.

00:25:50
Speaker 1: If positional value was irrelevant, then why are we not getting kickers in the first round consistently?

00:25:56
Speaker 2: That's that's the easiest way to think of this.

00:25:59
Speaker 1: Clearly, positional value is going to have some inherent part of your evaluation process because you're not drafting kickers or punners early on.

00:26:09
Speaker 2: You could have the best like what what if.

00:26:11
Speaker 1: Your punner or your kicker is really really, really really good, why are you not drafting? Well, you're not drafting in the first round because you know that there's some variants involved, and there's you know, they're not getting paid as much, and you can get kickers, and there's a supply and demand problem, et cetera, et cetera. That's why you're not doing it. It's a very similar argument for running back. Now, I am not I retired from running back value debates years ago because it got I just grew so tired of it and it just was it's not fantasy focused, and I want to focus my attention on fantasy.

00:26:39
Speaker 2: I used to do it a lot. For Number Fire. There was a lot of running Back related.

00:26:42
Speaker 3: It was a big conversation back there running Back.

00:26:46
Speaker 1: I wrote an article for Number Fire that's no longer on the internet because that whole site's gone. But the title of it was, Saquon Barkley can be a generational talent, but he's still not going to be a good pick. That was the title of the article, something along those lines. And the idea is, yes, Jeremiah Love could be generational, and these guys can be generational. But you can simply look at how teams pay these players and see how they view these positions in terms of value.

00:27:12
Speaker 3: Right.

00:27:13
Speaker 2: And I'm not saying that's the end all. I'm not saying that he can't be valuable. I'm not saying that John Robinson, Jamier Gibbs aren't valuable. That's not my point.

00:27:20
Speaker 1: My point is when you go and you and you spend on something, because that's what the teams are doing here. They have precious equity and capital in the draft and they're using that to get players, and there's an opportunity cost involved in doing that.

00:27:36
Speaker 2: And if you go when you draft Jeremiah Love as the Titans in.

00:27:39
Speaker 1: The top five, you know, could he put butts in the stands and could he be a really good player for that franchise. Sure, if that's part of your evaluation, fine, go for it. I don't, I don't care. You know, it's fine. But the way that rookie rookies get paid is that there is a locked in salary for these positions in the and so him getting a running back being paid getting drafted fourth.

00:28:04
Speaker 2: Overall, you are much better off spending it on.

00:28:07
Speaker 1: A higher quality position like wide receiver or corner, whatever the case may be, defensive end because those guys get paid more, you know, and so if you hit on that player, there is more to gain.

00:28:21
Speaker 2: From that hit.

00:28:22
Speaker 1: Right, Another analogy that you could you could run with this to talk about to talk about just value in general. And how what was the quote from the the Schrigger thing that throw positional.

00:28:31
Speaker 2: Value out this year?

00:28:32
Speaker 3: Right?

00:28:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, to throw it out. Imagine going to the grocery store.

00:28:35
Speaker 1: Okay, imagine going to the grocery store and you say, you know what, I really want an apple and a steak. Okay, but we know that some some some slab of meat is way more valuable than an apple. Okay, the very best apple, the greatest apple that you've ever tasted, or like a ninety fifth percentile apple, let's say, is still going to be less valuable than a tenth percentile slab of meat because of the value of that thing. So Jeremiah Love can be very, very good and still not be as valuable as a lower tiered.

00:29:15
Speaker 2: You know, not doesn't hit in a significant way. Wide receiver. Let's say, not only that Tennessee has a freaking need at wide receiver.

00:29:23
Speaker 3: You know that.

00:29:23
Speaker 1: That's the other thing that drives me nuts here is that there's wide receivers that are being projected that are very good, that are being projected to go in the top ten, and if they opt to get the running back, I just think that that's bad process in general. Right, And they also have two viable running backs right now that they can get through the season with, right. Yeah. So the idea here is not to say that like I think Jeremiah Love is bad or anything like that.

00:29:46
Speaker 2: I just I can't believe that we're.

00:29:47
Speaker 1: In the year twenty twenty six and people can't comprehend the concept of value, like it's the most basic thing on earth, and gms just ignore it because they want to go get that guy and get their guy. And I know people are screw in their cars right now about Jamier Gibbs and how people felt about Gibbs, et cetera, et cetera.

00:30:06
Speaker 2: I get it, Like.

00:30:07
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that that like it can't work out or that. But the Lions also built differently than where the Tenant were built and are in and ended up building really well and hitting on a lot of picks, which allowed that Jamier Gibbs pick to look a lot better in hindsight than where Tennessee is at. You have to think about range of outcomes here, and also when we approach a draft or when.

00:30:28
Speaker 2: When teams are are evaluating these players. What's also really interesting.

00:30:33
Speaker 1: Is they're like, oh, this is a week draft class, therefore we can just throw positional value out the window and not worry about it.

00:30:39
Speaker 2: That's cocky.

00:30:40
Speaker 1: There's a lot of arrogance in that statement because you're saying, we know how these guys are going to the NFL draft has so much variance that you're making the assumption that you know exactly how these edge rushers or wide receivers are going to perform. But what we really should be doing is, Okay, there's a talent evaluation within the position. So Jeremiah Love is very, very good within the running back position. But then there's a value you know, composition and evaluation that we have to do of how good these positions actually are, because that gives us at least some baseline that if a wide receiver.

00:31:14
Speaker 2: You know, Rashad Bateman's a good example of this.

00:31:15
Speaker 1: Rashad Bateman, is he a miss in the NFL from an NFL perspective, Probably right, But him missing by the degree in which he missed as a late first round pick is still more valuable. Then even if you get a decent hit from a running back in that range, you know, just just look at salaries period. And so that's my issue with just like throwing out positional value.

00:31:39
Speaker 2: I just don't think it's very logical. I know people are going to disagree.

00:31:42
Speaker 1: I don't want to get into the like back and forth of running back value and stuff. That's not the point of this rant. It's just the fact that it's a slow time in the news cycle. We got to talk about this kind of stuff because and also, like, I think it's important for us to like critically think about this stuff. You don't have to agree with me, but I'm at least taking a step back and trying to think through all of these things. And I want others to really think through all this stuff instead of you know, these talking heads going on TV saying, Oh, he's an offensive weapon.

00:32:09
Speaker 2: What does that even mean? What does that mean?

00:32:12
Speaker 1: So he's an offensive weapon, but Jordan Tyson's not an offensive weapon.

00:32:16
Speaker 2: Like, just get out of here with this garbage.

00:32:18
Speaker 1: You're just making up excuses to be able to take Jeremiah Love in the top five period. That's all that That's all that means. So that's all this is about. That's all this brand is about. Let's critically think about this stuff. Let's be smart about this stuff and have real genuine conversations instead of, Oh, Jamiir Gibbs is good, b John Robinson is good.

00:32:36
Speaker 2: Atlanta has been horrible, you know, like it's it's what does it even mean? It's just it drives me nuts.

00:32:43
Speaker 3: I think, was it even mean? Needs to be it's like a clip that we use. What it even mean? I probably say it quite a bit. All right, from that, let's talk about let's have another conversation JJ, let's talk about projected versus actual wide receivers today data. All right, here we have top one hundred wide receivers by year projected versus actual value.

00:33:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I was actually kind of curious about this.

00:33:14
Speaker 1: So I looked at NFL mock Draft database data going back to twenty sixteen, and I listed how many wide receivers we've seen in the top one hundred get drafted, you know, via actual like what we actually saw, and then also what NFL mock Draft database had going into the draft. And right now we have seventeen in the top one hundred, which is the second most since twenty sixteen, behind twenty twenty four. You can see though, in the delta column, which is the difference between actual and NFL mock Draft Database projection. I mean, the average overall has been pretty on point. It looks like NFL mock Draft database does inflate the number of wide receivers that get drafted, typically in the top one hundred, but it's by point four per season on average. Because some seasons we've had plus two, so two more guys got drafted in the top one hundred than NFL Mock Draft Database projected. Sometimes we have it, you know, there's another plus two. Sometimes we have minus two minus four. But like as you can see, like the last four years before twenty twenty six, they've been dead on NFL Mock Draft database with the number of wide receivers three of the four years with a number of wide receivers that went in the top one hundred, and how many they had in the top one hundred. So right now there's seventeen, which means based on this, I think we're looking at sixteen probably sixteen day two, day one and two wide receivers in this draft, which you know, I think that a lot of these guys have average I said this on the show with Harmon like average to above average profiles. I'll say it again as I said on this show. Because of that, we're gonna get some hits that you know, we don't really expect or you know, they land in the right spot and we're.

00:34:52
Speaker 2: Like, okay, yeah, I can see that that working out.

00:34:55
Speaker 1: Because I just think that there's enough like like a lot of the guys in round two and round three that are projected to go there, we'll have neutral too high risk draft capital delta profiles, which means the model does that model is going to view them a little bit less favorably than what their draft capital says. Now, their overall profiles, I say, are average to above average, because I'm just looking at that in the context of the entire draft class. Right, there's just a lot of dudes who are fine. But yeah, like, I think it's an interesting thing to think about, and I would I would imagine we see a lot of those Day two wide receivers, which means that Friday night is going to be very, very busy for us at late round Fantasy football.

00:35:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I mean, I'm excited. I know some people talk about like this being like a down class. It's still it doesn't matter how down the class is at any position, it's still fun to see where guys are going. If anything, just to panic about guys that you already have, Yeah, you know, and and what's gonna happen there? All right, With that being said, let's get on to it. It's the main event, the late round main event, all right, JJ, Here we have rookie sleepers, and just to remind people in case someone is watching this video later on and like, I can't believe this is before the NFL Draft I started. These are pre NFL draft rookie sleepers. And uh, let's start with a guy that he just got injured, Eric McCallister.

00:36:27
Speaker 2: Yeah. I feel like it wasn't really a headline either. Yeah.

00:36:30
Speaker 3: In fact, I when I saw sy he's the he's a cover boy. And then when I U like did some research to pull a photo, I see, oh, he got injured during pro Day, and then I had to come back to make sure you had it on there because like JJ may not know he's on here that he you know, he injured himself.

00:36:49
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:36:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, I I honestly didn't even realize until I started doing research for the show.

00:36:55
Speaker 2: Uh that's part of being away last week too.

00:36:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, but yeah, I do want to say that Eric McCallister might go undrafted because of some off the field stuff and Dane Brugler's I was talking to Harmon about this and Dane Brugler's The Beast, which is a phenomenal resource for prospect stuff. Uh, there's a I shouldn't be lie it's not funny. It's just crazy that it says there's a second misdemeanor count of terroristic threat causing fear of imminent serious bodily injury that was against Eric McAllister. Like he there's a gun charge, felony gun charge for him. So it's something that we have to keep in mind with the way that teams might view him.

00:37:37
Speaker 2: And there are people who don't.

00:37:38
Speaker 1: Think that McAllister is very like I harmon off air was not very you know or like in text messages, and very high on McAllister. I think Brugler is not very high on McAllister. So I highly doubt this all comes together. But this is a sleeper show. We're just having some fun today. You know these are these are fourth I mean, I think the fantasy community might end up being irrationally high on McAllister because of his age. Justin products is kind of good, it's actually pretty good. But most of these guys are like fourth round dart throws in your rookie draft. But look, McAllister, he's a TCU wide out that's gonna turn a lot of people off. We have not seen TCU hits in a minute. It's been it's been a rough decade for TCU wide receivers. With that being said, he has a ninety second percentile breakout score. He had a ninety third percentile career yards PERU run rate, ninety fourth when just looking out wide, ninety first percentile career first downs per out run rate, his yak perception eighty six percentile, avoided tackles perception ninety six percentile. And with Brandon's work that he's done the last couple of weeks, we've learned that a lot of the avoided tackles and yak stuff does translate to the NFL. So that's kind of interesting in my opinion. So you get this Jones fracture though at his pro day, which is a really big deal. You get the the the the off the field stuff, which is a big deal. I think his draft capital is probably gonna I mean, we'll be lucky if he gets drafted Day three at this point, I think.

00:39:00
Speaker 2: But I do think the profile is at least interesting.

00:39:03
Speaker 3: To call him out on today's show, is that TCU wide receiver shade directed at Quentin Johnson, Well QJ.

00:39:09
Speaker 2: That's more Jalen Rager. Okay, at least with QJ.

00:39:12
Speaker 3: Like.

00:39:13
Speaker 2: Qj's another one of those guys.

00:39:14
Speaker 1: We're like, yeah, he's definitely not lived up to where he was drafted, right, Like.

00:39:18
Speaker 3: But he did last year.

00:39:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, but likes And we might look back at Qj's career and be like, Okay, he was fine.

00:39:24
Speaker 2: He was He wasn't Jalen Rager.

00:39:25
Speaker 1: You know, Jalen Rager is a complete bust, just a total bust. But QJ is not quite that. And you know, given that, like when he goes and gets another contract, look at Qj's contract compared to what a running back gets and that I'll just go.

00:39:41
Speaker 2: Back to that that value discussion.

00:39:43
Speaker 3: Okay, let's get to a hybrid position player. This is gonna be a fun one.

00:39:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll let you say the last name, Eli Heidenrach. He's a he's a I believe, a Mount Lebanon Pittsburgh guy. That's a that's the other side of the city where I grew up on. But he I believe is a y inser deep down. He went to Navy. He can line up in the backfield, he can play in the slot. He was I mean, his his market share numbers broke the model and I had to do a little bit of a capping on it because it was just so ridiculous out.

00:40:17
Speaker 3: Of control because of the.

00:40:21
Speaker 1: Implement have to adjust for Navy's offense, and so I had to adjust that because then I would be getting thousands of questions about Eli Hydeen Rak. But but I think it's one of those things where we can absolutely say, oh, this is an interesting problem. Like again the guy, the model. It's there to like get us directionally where we want to be. And so with Hide and Reik, we can say like, oh, this is kind of interesting. Maybe there's something there. He went to the Combine as a running back, and so he's in the database as a running back. He is one hundred percentile, he's the best pro rated, best season reception share, one hundred percentile, best season adjusted yards per team pass attempt, ninetieth percentile, explosive run rate. Like he's athletic, he can line up everywhere if he gets an interesting and good offensive coordinator.

00:41:03
Speaker 2: I think there could be something there with Hide and rank Uh.

00:41:07
Speaker 1: People have you know, it's probably a more than just football comp but people have thrown the spider charts out there and stuff with him versus Christan McCaffrey, which I think is kind of interesting, uh and funny, but he's clearly not CMC.

00:41:21
Speaker 2: There's more.

00:41:23
Speaker 1: Profile, but he has he has the receiving skill set that a team might really want to deploy and utilize.

00:41:29
Speaker 2: We'll just see. I think he's still gonna be a Day three pick.

00:41:32
Speaker 3: Honestly, it's a fun question as far as what could CMC have done in an Avy offense?

00:41:39
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, yeah, like what like.

00:41:42
Speaker 3: What what would you what would it have looked like?

00:41:45
Speaker 1: There's been some players that that have come out uh over the last you know, I guess I've been doing this and I've been prospecting for nine years or so. But there's a guy out of Air Force named Jalen Robinette that people might remember. He's a wide receiver, big body, six four two fifteen, and his market share numbers were out of control because when you get one good player in these offenses, they just only they just go through that player, and so their numbers just look out of control and great, all right.

00:42:20
Speaker 3: The next guy I've got a little bit of an issue with because when I was creating the rankings for tight ends in the Prospect Guide, this guy has the longest name, John Michael Gillenborg, Jack Gilberborg. Gillenborg is a huge it's a long name. It's not just John as John Michael Gillenborg.

00:42:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wish that I would have like talked about him earlier, because like there's only I know that I do a lot of shows, but there's only so much that I can talk about on each show, and he's one of those players where like every week I'm like, oh, maybe I should bring him up, but there's not really a spot for me to bring him up.

00:42:54
Speaker 2: But this show is definitely a spot to bring him up.

00:42:56
Speaker 1: He's a tight end from Wyoming, Okay, ninety first centile high adjusted speed score breakout score, which is in the tight end model is adjusted for program strength, so that's important for Wyoming, and it's adjusted for age fifty third percentile not terrible, eighty six percentile career yards.

00:43:13
Speaker 2: Per out run.

00:43:14
Speaker 1: That's not adjusted, which is important, eighty four percent percentile career first downs per out run.

00:43:19
Speaker 2: And then I ran a fun little query.

00:43:21
Speaker 1: Even though I don't love the threshold stuff, I just think it's fun to see what pops up whenever you look at what these dudes did in college and how that might translator what kind of comps you can you can pop up? Okay, his career yards per out run is above one point nine, so I looked at all players above that mark, and it's not that much above one point nine.

00:43:40
Speaker 2: So it is a little bit.

00:43:40
Speaker 1: Unfair this this threshold high adjustice speed score above the ninetieth percentile. He again, he's in the ninety first percentile. So again these are like the minimum for him, So all the guys should be a little bit better. These are the guys in the that model database, which technically will go back to like twenty sixteen or so, just given when the yards per run data goes back to Kyle Pitts, Evan Ingram, Eli Stours, Alberto who was everyone loved Alberta back in the day, George Kittle, Zach Kuntz, and John Michael Gillenborg. Those are the tight ends that fit those thresholds.

00:44:13
Speaker 2: I don't know.

00:44:13
Speaker 1: I think he's a fun Day three sleeper. I think he's I think he's a he's athletic. He's got decent enough production and sometimes that's all you need.

00:44:22
Speaker 3: Okay, just the chat from we have multiple comments, and now I'm not gonna be able to get out of my head, so I want to be in your head. It's that we had John Jacob Jingle harm Schmidt. Yeah, yeah, that's my name too. Yeah, John Michael Lienborg Titan, Wyoming.

00:44:44
Speaker 2: Yes, stretch.

00:44:46
Speaker 3: Let's get to Seth mcgallan from Kentucky. It's an easy name to say.

00:44:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's an old, he's he's a he's an unk for sure.

00:44:52
Speaker 3: Seems like a lot of running backs from Kentucky. That's just like the stereotype is like older running.

00:44:57
Speaker 1: Backs just they just go there to like five six year running backs like Chris Rodriguez.

00:45:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, and uh, who else the journeyman from Temple to Bandy to Kentucky. Why can't I think of his name? Back up for Bill's helped me out here?

00:45:14
Speaker 2: Oh Ray Davis, Ray Davis, Yeah, old, Yeah, he was an.

00:45:17
Speaker 1: Old too, Seth McGowan, he's definitely always over twenty five years old. So this is a last round rookie pick, even like, you don't want to go crazy on a guy that's that's this old.

00:45:26
Speaker 2: He had off the field issues.

00:45:29
Speaker 1: Charges were dropped, but he like missed a year of school, like things were kind of wild. He actually played with Mike Washington at one point during their collegiate journeys. But he's six foot two twenty three about a one to ten speed score, So that's really strong. Like, I feel like if Mike Washington like didn't do anything at the combine, people would be talking more about Seth McGowan's combine because it was pretty strong. And if you look at his his metrics, like seventy seventy second percentile avoided tackles per attempt, his best season and reception show is eighty fifth percentile, which you know it's going to skew towards a guy who's played more frequently in a lot of a lot of years versus a guy who only played three years or something. But still like he showed at least a season where he had a decent reception share, And one of his comps in the ZAP model was David Johnson. Now, the other two were pretty weak. I can't remember exactly who they were, but they were guys that were completely forgettable.

00:46:22
Speaker 2: But I do think there's an outcome.

00:46:24
Speaker 1: Here where early in his career, Like it's got to happen quick because of his age, but I could see him being a backup someone getting hurt or something in him being able to carry a workload, him being a three down back and using that athleticism and maybe for a year or two being someone that we can semi rely on, you know in dynasty.

00:46:42
Speaker 2: Not not anything crazy.

00:46:43
Speaker 1: I actually was going through this when I was looking at sleepers, I'm like, I don't have nearly as many like clear cut, obvious guys that I want to talk about this year compared to almost any other year that I've done this. It just feels like I think part of it is that draft capital really aligns with what the ZAP model sees this year, so that helps for But then also there's just not that many like talented running backs and even the wide receivers that are gonna go day three, they're not really that juicy and exciting, so you know, I try to try to limit this to guys who are being projected to go day three. Uh And and that's why it's just it was just a harder exercise than I thought it would be.

00:47:20
Speaker 3: Okay, I took a stab on this guy at twentieth in the twentieth round of a draft. It's Brendan Thompson from Missippi State.

00:47:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think Thompson's an interesting guy.

00:47:31
Speaker 1: Like he is small, which he gets dinged for in the model a little bit.

00:47:35
Speaker 2: He's five nine one sixty four.

00:47:36
Speaker 1: But one of his top actually his absolute top comp was Tank Dell and uh, you know, he had a again Brendan Thompson's production profile not amazing forty second percent tile breakout score. I said in this in this sheet that it was mid, which I found on on Twitter today that I shouldn't be saying mid that that people don't take me seriously When I say mid.

00:47:56
Speaker 3: Someone that was that was constructive feedback, Yeah to my response.

00:48:00
Speaker 1: So my response with people don't take me seriously anyway, So I'm gonna keep saying the mid so forty second percentile breakout score. He ran a four to two six forty. The dude is fast and you can see that on film. He he can stretch the field vertically, and it reminds me a lot of how Tang Dell kind of came on the scene for Houston. Same size, same profile, but this this type of size profile definitely does not hit frequently at all. Like JJ Nelson could be a comp for Brendan Thompson here.

00:48:29
Speaker 2: But the one thing That's.

00:48:30
Speaker 1: Interesting with Dell is that again, like we only saw a twelve percent slot rate from Thompson and Dell played on the outside, Like so far in his NFL career has been playing on the outside. I think Thompson can hypothetically like go a little inside out.

00:48:44
Speaker 2: He had a really good slot per run yards prout run rate too, so I think that he can play in the slot.

00:48:49
Speaker 1: But yeah, I just think that he's like an intriguing prospect where he does something very specific while also having these obvious red flags.

00:48:58
Speaker 2: But you can see how.

00:48:59
Speaker 1: A team might wanted to play that and use him. So I'm intrigued even though he's a tiny boy.

00:49:05
Speaker 3: Yeah go look, go look at some highlights though, Man, that guy could. I think it was an Arizona State night game that I watched and they he went nuts in that game. He's so fast, He's so fast, all right, Uh, big surprise here. It's like me including sours on some of their papya you got Desmond Reed does read running back from Pitt.

00:49:27
Speaker 2: From Hail to Pitt, Yes, Hail to Pit. I'm a pit alum.

00:49:31
Speaker 1: We got to throw out a pit guy here. Do I think des Reed is gonna dominate in the NFL. Now, probably not he got a Tarik Cohen comp though I think he looks a lot like Tarik Cohen really explosive. You know, he had an eighty third percentile explosive run rate in college, avoided tackles per attempt sixty ninth percentile. But his receiving profile man best season reception share in the ninety six percentile, uh best season adjusted yards per team past ten ninety six percentile. He is a receiving back who can do a lot when there is base in front of him.

00:50:01
Speaker 2: And that is like again, I go back to Tari Cohen.

00:50:05
Speaker 1: I think Cohen was in the NFL at the right time when teams were deploying their running backs in that way a lot more and not afraid to use them as pass catchers.

00:50:13
Speaker 2: It's a different kind of game now, but there are some.

00:50:16
Speaker 1: Offenses that could still potentially use a player like this, Like I could see des Reed being a third back on like Chicago, you know, where they just need that like dynamic playmaker to kind of change things up, change a pace kind of player where you know DeAndre Swift and Kyle man Unguy are getting a lot.

00:50:34
Speaker 2: Of the bulky stuff.

00:50:36
Speaker 1: But I think that a guy like Ben Johnson could do a lot with a player like des Reed and be creative with him. So I think there could be a spot for him. He might go undrafted, so keep that in mind. But I do think he's an interesting prospect because a lot of his production metrics look really good. It's just the problem is he's five to six one hundred and seventy four pounds, so he's he's a tiny.

00:50:55
Speaker 2: Tiny guy.

00:50:55
Speaker 1: This is like a duce Von type situation where production profile may be there, but more than likely the NFL production is.

00:51:02
Speaker 3: Not going to be there. Okay, Next we got Jeff Caldwell wide receiver from Cincinnati, and the first bullet you have because the other two small small you have not small.

00:51:15
Speaker 1: Yeah. Like I said, I don't think there's a lot of like obvious sleepers in this class. I don't love Jeff Caldwell, but I do think there's at least a trait or arbitrage that we could play here.

00:51:23
Speaker 3: Now.

00:51:24
Speaker 1: I know that people are going to disagree with this strongly. This is purely an analytical take. I think you can make the argument that this is an arbitrage bryce lance kind of play where Lance is like a fringe top one hundred pick right now. From a production standpoint, like, I think he could go round three pretty easily.

00:51:39
Speaker 2: I don't think Caldwell will.

00:51:40
Speaker 1: But Caldwell is six' five two sixteen and ran a four to three, one so he's a beast from a size. Perspective Bryce lance also a. Beast he had weaker production when adjusted for strength of schedule because he played at Linden, Wood But Bryce lance also played in a smaller program and had some of those adjustment problems. Too if you scroll down a little, bit you can see the spider chart for these, guys which is showing their, height their, weight their breakout, score their max adjusted yards per team pass, attempt their career yards per out, run their first downs per oute, run their deep ball rate like it's it's.

00:52:16
Speaker 2: NOT i, mean they're pretty.

00:52:17
Speaker 1: Similar caldwell looks, better, height, weight like he's a little bit, bigger breakout scores a little bit, better the max adjusted yards per team pass tempt almost, identical you.

00:52:27
Speaker 2: Know the yards per out run stuff Favors lance a little bit.

00:52:30
Speaker 1: More but, overall, LIKE i think that this is the archetype at least that we're working with and you're gonna be able to get Called well late in your rookie, drafts Whereas, LANCE i don't think that's gonna be the. Case and so this could just be a call out for a little arbitrage on these like because, Look lance is a high variance, pick like a high variance. PLAYER i don't think anyone should debate. That, like it's a at the very, least a high variant situation where you're looking at this bigger bodied athlete who you, know For lance had had a later career. Breakout For, well the breakout doesn't look as good because he played at Linden. Wood and so from that, perspective, like both of them are volatile prospects at the very, Least and so if you're gonna take a chance on a volatile, prospect and If Bryce, lance because it's a weaker, class really shoots up rookie draft, boards then this could be somewhat of an arbitrage play in getting a guy Like.

00:53:20
Speaker 3: Caldwell all, right you have an honorable mention only one Though barry And? Brown do you just want to Say barry And? Brown?

00:53:29
Speaker 2: Yeah for said the model like doesn't.

00:53:30
Speaker 1: Mind there's a lot OF lsu guys in this, class they're LIKE i remember writing the, profiles there's like four of, them AND i was, like all these guys are the. Same they're like, smaller speedy with weak production. Profiles But brown had a little bit better of a production profile according to the model compared to the other. Guys SO i just want to call him out as an honorable mention BECAUSE i DON'T i highly doubt any fantasy show has talked About barry And brown like.

00:53:53
Speaker 2: He's just not been like he shouldn't really be on your.

00:53:57
Speaker 1: Radar BUT i want to call him out because, look if he, HITS i need to be able to clip this and.

00:54:01
Speaker 3: Says on The Late round.

00:54:04
Speaker 1: Show AS i said in the honorable mention, section very, Briefly Barryon brown is a is a great sleeper.

00:54:11
Speaker 3: Guys, yeah a good name, Too Barryon brown with the. Alliteration, Sure, okay well there you, Go Baron. Brown you can put on your resume mentioned by The Late Round Fantasy Football. Show so if even if nothing ever, happens you've got this moment right.

00:54:31
Speaker 1: Here.

00:54:37
Speaker 3: All, RIGHT, jj you see what's in front of you is a huge keyr. Code as we say, goodbye THIS qr code is for people if they want to play On DraftKings For Bestball Early bestball campaign twohundred and fifty thousand dollars to the top, prize one million dollars total. Prize and, yeah we'll be doing some drafts live drafts next week before the ACTUAL Nfl. Draft it's gonna be a busy. Week so if if you just want to get the temperature of where things are right, now they've got like even a dollar contest that you can enter and go slowly over there on. Drafting so use A qr. Code use the link in the description if you want to do. That, also newsletter had another newsletter just got sent out today By Sir Brandon, godola who won The Late Round March madness. CONTEST i was, Fourth no big, deal But brandon sent out another. Email he's been he's been on a heater with these emails and it's.

00:55:37
Speaker 2: Free, free, guys it is.

00:55:39
Speaker 1: Free not only is it free and you get good, content but you're helping late round fantasy. Football if you sign, up even if you, okay you should open, it but then you can delete it, after but open the emails that come.

00:55:49
Speaker 2: Here.

00:55:49
Speaker 3: Roy that helps To, yeah we Got patreon we got. Members next week should be fun in the discord chat for our members with THE Nfl draft, happening it's always a good, time and we've unfiltered. Commentary we don't spoil picks in the late round.

00:56:08
Speaker 2: Discord just so everyone.

00:56:09
Speaker 3: Knows, yeah, no no spoilers. There and again the Prospect guide. Available you will get an update really soon after THE uh the draft is. COMPLETE i would venture to, say for the amount of words pages players in this, thing it's probably the quickest to be updated and sent. Out so if you want to advantage over your league, mates hop on over To lateround dot com and purchase THAT. Jj final, Thoughts.

00:56:39
Speaker 2: No, man great, Show great to be.

00:56:41
Speaker 1: Back love seeing familiar faces well names in THE uh in the, comments And i'm.

00:56:48
Speaker 2: Really excited for THE Nfl.

00:56:49
Speaker 1: Draft like you, said we'll be working all next week so that we can get that thing updated and. Out and, look the updates are not just the. Scores the updates are the blurbs of the relevant, players so you, know the guy guys like some of THE lsu wide RECEIVERS i just talked about who go. UNDRAFTED i won't update their, blurbs but the big the bigger names the guys that are relevant for rookie. Drafts we will be updating all of, them both tight, end running all tight, end running, back and wide. Receiver and like we said at the, top there's that conversion chart that'll be in there, Too so working. HARD i can't say it's gonna hit your inbox immediately after the, draft but give it a couple of hours it'll be. There and if you're drafting On saturday, night.

00:57:27
Speaker 2: You should be able to at least get some help from the Late round prospect.

00:57:30
Speaker 3: Guy there are Some sikos out there that draft immediately after the.

00:57:34
Speaker 2: Draft, yeah there.

00:57:36
Speaker 3: Are maybe maybe they Are Late round. Subscribers they're trying to gain the. System, anyways we appreciate everyone for tuning. In we'll see you next time here on The Late Round Fantasy Football show sponsored By. DraftKings no