789: Mailbag 8/18/23

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha j Jake Zachers. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode seven hundred and eighty nine of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Before we get into the mailbag questions this week, I'm of course gonna remind you to check out the Late Round Draft Guide. It's got everything you need for your drafts this year. They're strategic insights, talk about my fantasy football philosophy, players, the target players to avoid, rankings, and more, and it's updated each week through August. For more info and to purchase the guide, check out Lateround dot com. The first question this week is from Jeremy from Patreon. It says, Hey, JJ, can you give us a sense for how much you're moving Breist Hall and Ormandre Stevenson in redraft given the recent Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott signings. I would imagine Dalvin has a bigger impact than Zeke, especially in the first half of the regular season. But curious about your thought process here. Still seems like Breeze could be a league winner in the playoffs, or is that wishful thinking. No, I think you're thinking about that the right way. One of the things that I think gets overlooked in fantasy is properly weighing the weeks that matter most the fantasy football playoffs. This is part of the reason that rookies are undervalued in redraft every year. Not only do they just naturally outperform average draft position expectation at a pretty good rate, but rookies are usually better during the second half of the season versus the first, meaning they're more impactful when things matter most, and I do think that's relevant for Breeze Hall. Here. Now, one thing I want to say. When moves like these moves happen, like Dalvin Cook going to the Jets, Ezekiel Elliott going to the Patriots, I try to think about why a team might be making that move, because that can dictate how I think these players might be used. Why did the Jets sign Dalvin Cook if they already have Breeze Hall. Well, for one, look at where the Jets are right now as a franchise. They're in win now with Aaron Rodgers. He's probably not gonna be there for three or four years more than likely, and right now if you look at their running back depth chart. Yeah, there are solid pieces there, pieces that you might like, or I might like bres Hall coming off that acl Michael Carter, He's solid. Is the Abana Kanda as a fun prospect. But that's not always how front offices think. They're trying to lock things up everywhere at every position. They probably don't want to rely on Breece Hall absolutely being one hundred percent if they don't have to. So, yeah, Dalvin Cook going to New York, that matters. You don't sign a guy to that contract to this win now team for no reason. They're gonna use him, and that hurts Brece Hall. A Jets team without Dalvin Cook is better for Breeshall's fantasy outlook than a Jets team with him, period. You can't argue otherwise. What I do think we all need to wrap our heads around, though, is that the vast majority of backfields right now in the NFL, they're committees, even for higher ending backs in fantasy, like the running back position high key sucks right now. So yeah, it's bad for Breeze Hall, and I think it's specifically bad for his ceiling. I actually don't think his projection gets dramatically different if you were already sort of baking in other running backs in that backfield seeing some work. But with Dalvin Cook, we could see more of those higher value touches of the goal line or through the air go his way instead of Breeze Hall's way. But make no mistake, Breece Hall is currently a more talented running back than Dalvin Cook. Hall had the best yards after contact per attempt in football last year. He was absurdly good. When he's one hundred percent, I expect him to still be the one A in this backfield. It's just that they may slow play this a bit because of the injury, even though Dalvin Cook is hurt too, and we may not see the rewards of Breeze Hall until the second half of the season. But for me, he's still ranked as a solid RB two. He's right after that Naji Harris travesytn tier so I dropped him by about a round. And I've also seen people say that Ezekiel Elliott going to New England is not that big of a deal for Ramandre Stevenson, but it does still matter. It definitely makes Kevin Harrison Pierre Strong completely unattractive unfortunately. But even if you think that Zeke is washed, he's a bigger threat to Stevenson than those two running backs. And I do think that that's especially true at the goal line. I talked about this on the Regression episode a few weeks back, but Ramandre Stevenson was not great at the goal line last year. Even if advanced metrics paint a little bit better of a picture or it shows that there's not that much of a difference between Zeke and Ramandre Stevenson at the goal line, that doesn't mean that coaches won't see that. I think that Elliott is a threat at the goal line for Ramandre Stevenson, and then he's obviously a threat for some of that early down work. Once again capping the true upside. You can look at Stevenson with and without Damien Harris as a general example of what we might see this year too. Damien Harris missed six games last year. And for the record, I'm not saying that Ezekiel Elliott is as good as Damien Harris. I'm saying this from the perspective of intention and how the team might ideally want this backfield split to work. Maybe leaning Stevenson a little bit more than they leaned towards him when Damian Harris was healthy last year. But last season, Damian Harris missed six games now Stevenson got hurt in one of them that won against Arizona, so five games. In those games, Ramandre Stevenson saw about seventy nine percent of the team's running back rushes per game and then an eighteen point three percent target share per game rate. With Harris active, those numbers filled a fifty five point two percent and seventeen point seven percent, so his target share was still really really high, but that rush share definitely dipped, which is why I'm saying that we should expect Zeke to dig into that side of his volume. Stevenson ended up scoring about two fewer PPR points per game with Harris last year, but he was still quite good. Don't overlook that aspect. He was still seeing a lot of work as a receiver, which is why why I think that you can still slot them ahead of guys like Naji Harrison, Travis etn because they have more question marks as pass catchers entering the season. So Stevenson for me, is still a low end RB one, high end RB two. He did drop in my rankings, though, because I now prefer a lot of those third round wide receivers over Ramandre Stevenson. It's just a really tough year for running backs. This last question is from Bailey. It says, hey, JJ, in the middle slash late rounds of mock drafts, I've been consistently seeing large tier gaps three or more tiers between the available wide receivers versus other positions. For example, guys like Dalvin Cooker, Brian Robinson going ahead of Pickens or Traylon Burks. How do you balance roster construction versus taking good value when your team already has enough wide receivers. If you see people start reaching for a position you need, usually RB two or RB three, do you reach with them so you don't get left behind? Or let them reach and take the value building a positionally lopsided team. So I like the last part of that question as a starting point and really as the main point. You say, or let them reach and take the value building a positionally lopsided team. It's positionally lopsided in terms of draft capital spent. Right Like your league mates have a super evened out draft. They get a couple of running backs early. Then maybe they get three or four wide receivers and they get maybe a tight end in round eight into round nine. It's balanced to you, given the way this question is asked, it's not positionally lopsided. Meanwhile, maybe you go hero RB, you get one elite running back, and then you've got like five wide receivers on your team through six rounds. Maybe the rankings and tiers say to get a sixth it's positionally lopsided given the draft capital that you spent. You're spending way more draft capital on wide receivers than running backs. But I think it's important to remember that draft capital spent on a player does not equal quality of player or value. Just because Brian Robinson goes ahead of George Pickens in your draft doesn't make it a good pick. We have to still remember the flatness to the running back position and not reach for players simply to fill a spot. Now, I understand what you're saying here. Eventually running back will dry up if everyone's taking their fifth one while you're taking all these wide receivers. But generally speaking, people are gonna stop taking certain positions when they've gotten enough of them. Generally speaking, I talked about this a lot when I did that episode on approaching unique leagues right after the scott Fishbowl. In other words, you may be able to extract value from running backs later, well after that particular tier is up, after that Brian Robinson type tier, because historically there hasn't been that big of a difference between players in that range versus players who get drafted maybe a little bit after that range. So I would lean wide receiver there and get the upside plays. You're not only increasing your chances of hitting on a stud, but you also have good trade potential. Now, with that being said, if you know a draft is gonna be like this heading into it, I would say to just ensure you get a running back or two with your first two picks before that flatness at the position occurs, because I have those guys valued around ADP to begin with. If you know there's a chance that a player like George Pickens will be valued after a player like Brian Robinson, when I JJ have Pickens well ahead, then you know that you're going to be getting some nice value on wide receiver in your draft. So flip that around and get at least an anchor running back, potentially even a running back running back start, especially in a two start wide receiver format. Now, these types of questions are really hard to answer because there's so much more that I don't know. You, of course, have to be reactive to what's going on in your draft. What I'm producing is a tiers list saying what's most logical to do based on all the research that I've done. But if you see the position drying up and you feel super uncomfortable, you can reach a little bit in a worst case scenario. The tiers are just a guide. But like I said, at a higher level, if you know that value will be there at wide receiver a little bit later, like pass round two, pass round three, then just get a couple of running backs early. Those guys are the difference makers anyway, and they're players that I've got ranked alongside generally where the market has them ranked, So you wouldn't really be reaching in that case, all while getting great value at wide receiver. This esscourse is from Matson. It says, in redraft, based on your tiered rankings, why are you betting on rookie wide receivers like Jordan Addison and Jackson Smith and Jigba over a second year guy like George Pickens. So both rookie wide receivers and second year wide receivers are really good bets to make in redraft. You want to target those types of players. George Pickens also has another market related trend in his favor, and that's being part of an ambiguous wide receiver group. We often see breakout wide receivers from players who have a teammate wide receiver getting drafted in the middle rounds with them, which is a reason to like both Deontay Johnson and George Pickens this year. And I like Pickens. I don't think anyone should walk away from today's show thinking that I'm not into George Pickens this season just because I like these two other guys more than him. Pickens is a good target, I just don't think he's as good of a prospect as the other two in this question. And it's not like he had this monster rookie season where it's very obvious that he's just the stud. Now. I know people aren't super high on JSN because of the competition there, but not only could he very easily just work his way onto the field and see a decent target share, but he has outs if something happens to Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf, it's wheels up with Jordan Addison. He landed in a perfect situation for his skill set. In my opinion, he's a perfect number two guy. He's a great route runner, he's in a pass first offense, and he could see a ton of volume like I wouldn't even be remotely shocked at. Jordan Addison sees more targets this season than George Pickens. So this is kind of a tough one to answer because someone could easily walk away thinking that I don't like George Pickens this year. That's not true, though I do like him. I just like a lot of wide receivers in that range. I think that's the money range this year. What you should walk away knowing from this episode is that you should be targeting rookie wide receivers and second year wide receivers. The last question says, hey, JJ follower listener and guide buyer here, thanks for the concise quality content. I remember midwayish through last year's fantasy season reading a lot about this is the lowest scoring season in a decade, or one hundred fewer total touchdowns than last time. This year, or but some teams have been unaffected, or if you have those quarterbacks or players on those teams, you're good. But I never read anything about the lowest scoring season at the end of the season and how it affected fantasy overall. What were the touchdown in yard totals by the end of the season, and how do they compare to the past. Did the super teams perform normally and everyone perform substandardly or were the super teams really just super thanks Carl B. Yes, So when building projections, these are the kinds of things that really stand out, partially because when you build projections, everyone's healthy, so offenses just look better than they actually might end up. There aren't quarterback injuries. But last season did see a dip in offensive touchdowns. Teams average a little over thirty eight offensive touchdowns across the season. That number was forty two of the year before that, and during the COVID season that number was almost forty four. And remember teams are playing seventeen games now. Meanwhile, we had six teams with the touchdowns per game rate above three. The year prior that number was seven, so not that different, which means the higher end teams were still doing pretty well. Like last year, we had the Chiefs and the Eagles have a touchdown per game rate of three point four to seven and three point three five respectively. Those were both top twenty five numbers across the last decade. So those two teams in particular, they still performed at a really, really high level. But remember the average in terms of touchdowns per game and total touchdowns per team that was lower, which means those teams did separate themselves from the rest of the pack, and I do expect some regression this season. I expect a lot of those poorer teams to at least perform a little bit better. The last question this week is from at Go Vikes zero nine to one zero. It says, who are some early season defenses you were targeting to stream? So I'll do this quickly. New Orleans super easy one. I talked about this on the Early Season Schedule Analysis episode, But their stretch of quarterbacks to start the season is absolute cake. Lots of inexperience, lots of beatable offenses. So the Saints are an easy target for streaming. If you look at week one only, you go with the Commanders because the Commanders get the Cardinals and they're playing at home, so that's a good one in what should be a pretty low scoring game. And then if you want weeks one and two, look at the Broncos. They start back to back games at home and they get the Raiders and Jimmy Garoppolo. And then in week two it's Washington and Sam Howe. So Denver is another really good option. There are more, but those are the ones who really jumped out at me. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB and do me a solid leave a rating and review for the show wherever you listen to it. It really helps the show. Thanks for listening to everyone, Enjoy your weekend. I'll talk to you next week.