564: 15 Transactions for Week 7

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Speaker 1: This is the Lab podcast with your host JJ Zachertha. J J Zacherresa, what's up everyone. It's JJ Zachares and the editor in chief at fandle and at number fire dot com in this episode five hundred and sixty four of the Late Round podcast. So many shows that are part of the Fandel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. The NBA is back, and so is Fandal's Free over Under contest. It's simple. Just head over to fandle dot com, slash over under and choose either over or under for each listed prop. You can make free picks for a chance to win a share five thousand dollars. All you have to do is make your picks on Fandel before every NBA on TNT broadcast for your shot at a big payday. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to fandle dot com or download the Fandel app for more details. Today's fifteen Transactions Day. Let's get to it. Sell DeAndre Hopkins. Like any transaction that I talk about on this show, this one needs a caveat. No one is saying that DeAndre Hopkins is a bad fantasy football asset. No one is saying trade DeAndre Hopkins, no matter what what I am saying is test the market. To be honest with you, guys, there aren't many wide receivers that I would want over DeAndre Hopkins from here on out. It's just that I don't think that Hopkins is in some untouchable tier like we get with Devonte Adams or Tyreek Hill. He's more so at the top of a tier with a group that's pretty big. So you might get a slight downgrade to wide receiver if you trade him, but it might be worth an upgrade elsewhere in your lineup. And let's just get this out of the way. DeAndre Hopkins is a wide receiver whose name has a lot of value because he's incredibly talented. He's one of the best wide receivers in the game. He might be the best wide receiver in the game. So you might be wondering why am I sitting here saying to sell him. Well, unlike some of the other elite wide receivers in fantasy football, DeAndre Hopkins is not seeing that significant an offensive share. He is a twenty point five percent target chair in the Arizona offense this year. That ranks outside the top thirty at the position. Hopkins has failed to reach a twenty percent target chair in half of his games this season, and yeah, he was a little bit banged up for some of that, but we're not getting typical DeAndre Hopkins this year. Hopkins has had two games this season with a target share below fifteen percent. Across his entire career, entering the season, he had just thirteen of those types of games. When you remove his rookie season, that number drops to three. That's three games with a sub fifteen percent target chair from twenty fourteen through twenty twenty, and he's already got two of them in six games in twenty twenty one. Hopkins is averaging sixteen and a half PPR points per game right now. He's just outside the top twelve a wide receiver, and I think that at this point we have to probably just accept that this isn't some massive fluke. This is the way the Cardinals offense is operating. And given the team's record, and given how well the offense is performing, why would we expect it to change. Again, I'm not saying that Hopkins is not someone that you want in fantasy football. It's just that he's now coming off a two touchdown game and he now has been on the receiving in a forty three percent of Arizona's passing touchdowns. Since twenty eleven, ten wide receivers have finished the season with that type of receiving touchdown share. Of those ten wide receivers, only two of them had target shares as low as hopkins share this season, so there could be some regression there. And given his name value, and giving the fact he's coming off this big game, I don't think it's a bad idea to see what kind of return you can get for Hopkins right now. Don't trade them away just to trade them away, because he's still going to be valuable, but his name obviously holds a lot of weight in the fantasy football world. By JD. McKissick and Ad Jarrett Patterson. So I mentioned this on the ten Trend Show last week. But after Week one everything was looking great for Antonio Gibson. He had a twenty three point eight percent target share in that Week one matchup. Since then, gibson sing game target share high has been eight point seven percent. He's averaging a six point four percent target share per game for him to become a truly elite player in fantasy football. That needs to go up pretty dramatically, and I don't think that we're gonna see that in twenty twenty one. He's been dealing with his shin injury. He's clearly not one hundred percent. He was in and out of that game against Kansas City this past weekend, So I don't think Antonio Gibson taking on a bigger role makes a lot of sense right now. So enter JD. McKissick and Jarrett Patterson. McKissick someone who just doesn't get enough love for what he's done over the last year and a half, both in real football and fantasy football. We know that he was pretty viable last year, but even this season, he's become another high floor PPR option. He's finished as a top fifteen running back in three of his last five games, and he's averaged a target share per game during that time of almost fifteen percent. I don't think Jad McKissick is going to be that tough to acquire, even with Antonio Gibson not being one hundred percent, and he might even be on your waiver wire. JD. McKissick is available in fifty eight percent of leagues. But while all this is going on. Don't forget about Jarrett Patterson either. He would benefit a lot if Antonio Gibson ends up actually missing some time because McKissick isn't really an early down back. He would take on some of that work from Antonio Gibson, but not all of the work. Now, Patterson's not the biggest running back in the world, but he did carry a big workload in college and his BMI is not bad at all. He's sort of like a Devin Singletary type. So this week I would go after Patterson in deeper leagues especially, and I would look to buy JD. McKissick. If you need a floor option at the running back position, add Deernest Johnson and Demitric Felton. So Nick Chubb was sidelined in Week six. The only non Kareem Hunt running back to get a carry in that game was Deernest Johnson. Johnson saw one carry, and he got one target, and he played twelve snaps. The thing is, Kareem Hunt injured his calf in that game. He's now going to miss at least three weeks. That's according to Adam Schefter. So now the Browns running back room is a complete disaster. And they've got a short week this week because they play on Thursday night. So because of that, Nick Chubb might not be able to play. And if he doesn't play, we're looking at Johnson likely as the one A in this backfield, but don't sleep on Felton taking on a bigger role either. Felton's got a receiving background after playing wide receiver for three seasons at UCLA before converting to running back, and since Johnson is in some established back I think that Felton could steal some snaps in that backfield. Now, do keep in mind that most of Felton's routes run this season have come while being lined up as a wide receiver, but he did run a couple of routes this past weekend from the backfield that's according to next Gen Stats. So if Hunt and Chubb are both out, it only makes sense to think that Felton's gonna see more work in this backfield. I think Johnson's the one that you want to add most, but in PPR formats especially, Felton's kind of interesting hold Robbie Anderson. So it's been a tough year for Robbie Anderson. He was such a consistent fantasy football piece last season. But now this season, he's averages seven point seven PPR points per game. He has a seat he's in high twelve point seven points. And that came all the way back in Week one. Now, I was a believer in selling Anderson after Week one. And the reason I'm saying that is because I don't want anyone thinking that I'm some sort of stand that I'm saying to hold Robby Anderson just because I really like Robby Anderson. No, that's not what this is about. I'm just here to say that now is not the time to get rid of Anderson. Yes, he found the end zone against Minnesota in Week six, but it was a pretty brutal game. He had three receptions and eleven targets for eleven receiving yards. But look past that, look past that stat line. Things have actually shifted in Anderson's favor of late. Across the first three games of the season, his target share per game average was just ten point eight percent. Over his last three that's spike to almost twenty six percent. He just hasn't been able to convert those opportunities. And then all the while Terras Marshall was concussed against the Vikings on Sunday. That could help Anderson maintain a big workload in Carolina's offense this week. So the peripherals are there dropping a player with that type of target share. That's not something that I usually want to do by Miles Sanders. So this is probably my favorite transaction of the week. When there's a generally accepted thought among the fantasy football masses, sometimes his advantageous to just act against that, just do the opposite, And I think a good example of that is with Miles Sanders. Fantasy football managers. Everyone in fantasy football is very frustrated with Miles Sanders usage, but things have not been as bad as you might think. Over the first four weeks this season, Sanders was averaging a running back rush share per game of about sixty seven percent. He was seeing about two thirds of the Eagles running back rushes. Kenneth gainwell was basically seeing the rest. Now during that timeframe, Sanders had a target share per game average of ten point four percent, and this is where people were really frustrated, because Kenneth Gainwells was twelve point eight percent. But over the last two weeks things have gotten dramatically better for Miles Sanders. Serious. I know his fantasy performances haven't been very good, but the peripherals have gotten a lot better. His running back rush share per game has gone from sixty seven percent across the first four weeks to ninety two point three percent across the last two, and his target share per game has jumped from ten point four percent to fifteen point nine percent. Meanwhile, Kenneth Gainwell saw his running back rush share per game drop from thirty three percent to seven point seven percent and his target share per game has gone from twelve point eight percent to eight point seven percent. That's across the first four games versus the last two, and this is all correlated with an uptick in Miles Sanders snap rate from weeks one through four. His highest snap share was sixty seven percent. Over his last two games, his low was seventy five percent. A big reason that Miles Sanders hasn't produced in fantasy football is because of matchup. The Eagles have faced the Panthers and the Buccaneers over the last two weeks. Those are two of the better teams in fantasy football stopping ap running backs. Things shouldn't be as tough for Philly's ground game moving forward from now through the end of the fantasy season. So through week seventeen, according to my method of adjusting fantasy points, the Eagles have one of the best running back schedules in all of fantasy football. Only two of their opponents rank above average and adjusted points allowed to the running back position. Right now, at this moment, you shouldn't have to give up a whole lot to get Miles Sanders. He's not producing in fantasy football. Managers are frustrated. This is the perfect time to buy low ad Rashod Bateman. So hopefully, for a lot of you who listened to this podcast, you already had your opportunity to add Rashod Bateman because he was featured in week four's version of this show. I also talked about him last week on the Mailback episode. But he made his debut in Week six, and in that debut he saw over twenty two percent of Baltimore's targets and he ran the second most routes at wide receiver behind Marky's Brown. Now, there was no Sammy Watkins for Baltimore, but when he's back, Bateman's got the talent to continue this type of workload in this offense. And remember it's not a pass heavy offense, but it's a pass heavier offense than what we've seen from Baltimore in recent seasons. Sell Latavious Murray. So, speaking of the Baltimore Ravens offense, how about that backfield. It's an absolute freaking disaster. No Baltimore running back has seen a double digit percentage target share since Week one. Latavious Murray, who's their lead back, He's averaged a running back rush share per game of forty nine point six percent. He's averaging fewer than one target per contest. Now, he's seen more targets over the last couple of weeks, but his target share is still hovering that seven percent range. So something special, it's nothing out of the ordinary. We all know this. Murray's getting by on touchdowns. He scored in four of six games this year. Despite this fact, he's not ranked in the top twenty in the position this season, not in a single week, even though he's scoring all these touchdowns, and it's because his opportunity the overall is not very good. There are teams in your fantasy league who need running backs, undoubtedly, especially during by week hell, so it's not a bad idea to see if you can package Murray up with someone else to upgrade a starting lineup spot. Add Amen Ross Saint Brown. I don't really like the waiver wire this week, so you might have to dig a little bit deeper, and I think that Aman Ross Saint Brown does make sense. Over the last three weeks, he's averaged a target share per game of twenty one point eight percent. He's turned that into seven point seven targets per game. Now. He didn't run as many routes as teammate Khalif Raymond this past week, but from weeks four through six, so over the last three games, he's only run four fewer routes than Raymond, and the two of them have run by far the most routes in that Detroit offense at wide receiver. And by the way, he also has more red zone looks over the last three weeks than all wide receivers and tight ends on the Detroit Lions. So he's worth a look this week. Add Rashad Penny. Chris Carson's now official on IR as we know with that neck injury, and the Seattle backfield is sort of up for grabs now. I know in week six they featured Alex Collins. He didn't look that bad and he's now seen back to back games with at least seventy five percent of the team's running back rushes. But his three point two percent target share against Pittsburgh was not very good. And he's a little bit injured now too, So it's all pretty good timing for Rashad Penny to come back to this offense. He should be coming off ir this week and without a ton of competition in that backfield, he should see some work And look, guys, I know that Rashad Penny can't stay healthy, but he was a really good prospect. I think he's a pretty good player, So he's a worthwhile add off the waiver wire this week by James Robinson. So a few weeks ago, I thought that James Robinson was more of a cell than a bye because of Urban Meyer's craziness in the way that he was utilizing Carlos Hide in that backfield. Then before that Thursday night game against Cincinnati, Carlos Hide was a surprise and active. He had that shoulder injury. When that happened, I was sent the transaction and Robinson has not looked back since. Now, let me say this before I go on, because I know I'm gonna get a lot of hate for this transaction. The original process on being lower than the consensus on Robinson wasn't that strong. It was a mistake. I shouldn't have made the decision strictly because urban Meyer's an idiot. Because Robinson as a talent never disappeared. That was never in question. He just had an ignorant coaching staff. He still has that. That staff could change, though, and they did change. They changed the way they utilized James Robinson, and that has boosted James Robinson's fantasy value. So it's definitely the case of me forcing it a little bit. He should have been more of a hold than a cell back then. But I'm not gonna sit here in my podcast and double down for the sake of doubling down. That's stupid. When I get new information, I changed my mind. Just like when I saw Carlos Hide was inactive against Cincinnati, I changed my mind. There's no chance I would have made James Robinson a cell had I known that Carlos Hide wasn't gonna play. When we get new information, it's totally fine. To change our minds. That's at least the way that I approach things. Some people might hate that, but I think it's the way that you win. But I like James Robinson a lot right now. I like him more than the consensus does. Now. He's coming off of three really good performances where he's average a running back rush are of almost ninety percent. He had a one hundred percent running back rush are in Week six. It's been far different than his sixty two percent share across the first three weeks of the season. Now, his target share per game over his last three is only seven point three percent, but he's basically been the sole back who's been running routes in that offense. More targets are gonna come now. The reason I'm calling him out on today's shows twofold. Sometimes buying high is okay in fantasy football because not every manager assumes a player can maintain a certain level of production. And Robinson has scored a touchdown in each of his last four games. That's not something that we can absolutely bank on, but not every manager is looking further ahead the next week as well. Robinson has a bye this week. You can use that your advantage when you're negotiating. And the good news is that after that by according to my adjusted fantasy points method, Jacksonville only has two bottom half matchups for running backs through the rest of the season. And here's the other thing. The only way for me to truly gauge what people might be thinking about Robinson from here on out is by looking at rest of season rankings around the internet. Honestly, and Robinson in a lot of those rankings, he's listed below players like Joe Mixon and DeAndre Swift. I think at this point in time, with the information that we've learned over the last few weeks, I would rather have James Robinson than those players. I'm telling you that injury to Carlos Hyde really pushed the Jags coaching staff to be less idiotic. They're not being as stupid with their running back usage, and that's big, big news for James Robinson. We adjust with new information add Ramandre Stevenson. So I called out Ramandre Stevenson last week on this show, and I don't like repeating transactions very often, but I feel like I have to with Stevenson because something interesting happened in week six. As we know, James White was injured in Week three. He's now done for the year. In that Week three game, Brandon Bolden was the one who ended up running the most routes at running back for the Patriots. Damien Harris was in second. The following week, Harris ran eighteen routes, Bolden ran ten. It was a pretty neutral game script against the Buccaneers. Then in Week five against Houston, we saw Bolden run seventeen routes and Ramandre Stevenson was in second with five. Now, part of that was because of Harris's dealing with that ribs injury, but listen to this. This past week, things changed. According to Pro Football Focus, Ramandre Stevenson ran one more route than Brandon Bolden did. Damien Harris was third in the pecking order. That turned into a fifteen percent target chair for Ramandre Stevenson. That was the highest target chair that any New England running back has seen in a game since James White was healthy in Week two. I talked about this on the show a lot over the offseason, but Stevenson had a really underrated receiving profile coming out of college despite his size, and we know that and in Bolden is not difficult competition Could this be the start of Ramandrie Stevenson having a more concrete role as a pass catcher for the Patriots? Like, could that be happening right now? I don't know for sure, but I don't want to risk my league mates scooping him up this week. Hold Alan Robinson. One of the most frequent questions that I've been asked since Sunday has been can I drop Alan Robinson now? In shallow leagues? I don't think it's crazy to do. But here's the argument for holding onto Robinson. He's seen almost a twenty five percent target chair in Chicago's offense. That type of target share doesn't grow on trees. Now, I know that he hasn't done anything with that volume, and a twenty five percent target share of a small pie is no different than like a sixteen percent or seventeen percent target share of a bigger pie. The thing is, Chicago's been fortunate to have seen some positive game scripts with Justin Fields as quarterback. During his first start against the Browns, everything was terrible. Everything was a disaster. So let's just pretend that game never happened. In weeks four and five against Detroit and last Vegas, though the Bears didn't have to throw the ball a lot, so Robinson's twenty one point three percent target share equaled eight total targets. In Week six, Chicago trailed Green Bay. The Bears had a negative game script, and they had twenty five team targets for the first time since Week one. This week they get the Buccaneers. That's a team that's faced by far the highest pass rate in the league this season. Chicago's not going to be able to rely on their ground game against Tampa Bay. That could lead to a better day for Alan Robinson. So I would at least wait to see how he performs in Week seven before I drop him. Add t Y Hilton. So t Y Hilton returned to the field in Week six. He caught all four of his targets for eighty yards. His twenty two point two percent target share was the highest on the Colts despite running fewer routes in both Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal. He did exit the game with an injury, but it doesn't seem like that it's that serious, but do keep an eye on that. But during a tough waiver wire week, Hilton does make some sense to see if he has any magic left add to a tongue of bailoa. So I think the top streamer this week is Tua. Not only did he look pretty good against the Jags this past Sunday, but he gets the Falcons this weekend, and they're the fourth most advantageous matchup for quarterbacks on looking at adjusted fantasy points allowed. Tua's rostered in just seventeen percent of Yahoo leagues, so he should be available in most of yours if you're hurting for a quarterback this week. Add the New York Giants defense. The NFL schedule has a lot of bye weeks this week, so it's harder to find defensive streamers, but I do like the Giants. They get a Panthers offense this week that's been struggling. Caroline has allowed four sacks per game over their last three and Sam Darnold has thrown an average of two interceptions per game over this time. According to fans Old Sportsbook, the over under in this game is just forty three and a half points too. The sixteenth transaction this week that you can't get my fifteen transactions column over on number fire dot com is to buy Calvin Ridley. I mentioned this transaction a couple of weeks ago on the show, but since then, Ridley hasn't played a single snap. He missed their Week five game and then they had to buy this past week. But the reason I'm bringing him up is because he's seeing so much volume in this offense and he's a very good player, and you can't always find by low candidates like this. Ridley has a target share per game rate of twenty seven percent. He's seen eight, ten, eleven, and thirteen targets this year. He's only found the end zone once, though that's bound to change given the volume that he's seeing in this offense. Now, I don't want to just reiterate the things that I said a couple of weeks ago on the show, but sometimes a transaction needs to be repeated. So you guys know where I stand on players, and considering the Miami secondary is banged up and that's who Atlanta faces this week, you may not have another opportunity to buy Calvin Ridley this year. That's gonna do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. You don't forget to follow me on Twitter at late round QB. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow