1087: Free Agency Fallout

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Speaker 1: This is the Lab podcast with your host JJ Zacheratha, j J Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ zacharesin in this episode ten eighty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. The Late Round Prospect Guide is done. It's finished, at least the pre draft version is. If you pre ordered the guide, a link to download that guide is now in your inbox. If you didn't, you can still get the pre draft version by heading the lateround dot com. It's just five dollars more than it was last week. Now if you buy the guide, or if you bought the guide, you'll get access to the post draft version, which will hit your inbox the day the NFL Draft ends, and that'll have all new player blurbs and write ups and ZAP scores. And that's for running back, wide receiver and tight end prospects. The guide is over one hundred and seventy pages long. It's got player profiles for those positions. There's zapp scores, you learn what goes into the models. There are a year two profile, up rankings, and more. Again, you can get it yourself and read it immediately over on lateround dot com. Today's episode of the show, though it's a straightforward one. You heard some of my thoughts on the free agency period on last week's Perspectives episode, but this is a little bit more of a deep dive and not a general conversation like the one that I had with Derek Brown. I'm gonna talk through a ton of moves that we saw go down last week, and I'll do my best to provide some early fantasy takes. Let's dive in. I think Kenneth Walker going to the Chiefs is probably the biggest move of the free agency period from a fantasy perspective. I haven't sat down and done my projections for the twenty twenty six season, but I wouldn't be surprised if Walker looks like an RB one in fantasy football entering next season. Brandon Gadula sent a newsletter out last week then I'm going to reference throughout today's show, but in it he noted that while Kansas City was twenty fifth and rushing yards per game last year, they were seventh and EPA per rush, and they were eighth and success rate. They were also twelfth and rushing yards before contact per attempt. Where things went south for them was in the explosive runs department. Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt combined for one run of twenty or more yards last year. That's on over two hundred and eighty carries. Their rate of gaining ten or more yards was eight point five percent and six point one percent. Those were both well below average numbers when compared to other running backs with fifty or more carries. And that includes Kenneth Walker, who gained ten or more yards at a near fifteen percent rate. That was a fringe top five number in the league. I've said this for years on the show now, but Walker's a big play, home run hitting running back. He often finishes seasons with more mediocre success rates, but he can break these big plays that really can change games. And that's why this fit is so interesting to me because despite Kareem Hunt just clearly not being a studley running back, he was fourth last year in success rate according to next Gen Stats. The line, the situation, the system, it's clearly helping things here now, the odd he His problem for Walker in Seattle was that he had a lot of empty calorie usage. He was being used between the twenties, not that much as a pass catcher, and not as much as the goal line. I'd anticipate him at least being the primary goal mine back. Now that's huge, and with the receiving stuff, Look, do I think Walker is going to step into a fourteen fifteen percent target share role? No, he's too good on the ground for them to deploy him that way. Not many running backs get to that point of seeing that much usage in their backfield. And he's not an elite pass catcher. He's good, but he's not elite. And I do think that he's good even if that hasn't been the case in the volume front in three of his four years in the league. It's a little scary that he's been under that eight percent target share mark in three of four seasons. But if it makes you feel any better, and I think it should, he's been above one point three yards per route run in three of those seasons. His only inefficient receiving season happened when he was a rookie. Like, I think there's a serious chance that we see a double digit percentage target share with goal line work for Kenneth Walker in twenty twenty six, and in that Kansas City offense, that can go a long way Meanwhile, the result of Walker leaving Seattle is that they've got a pretty open backfield now to start the twenty twenty six season. Right now, Zach Charbonna is recovering from an acl He almost definitely won't be ready to start the year. The Seahawks signed Emmanuel Wilson from the Packers, and they've seem to like what they have in George Hallani. We're likely going to see them invest in running back in the draft. That's what I'd imagine they do. But this running back class is not super strong, so I'm actually not against using those running backs as sort of like throwing pieces in trades right now, just to see how this backfield unfolds, because it might unfold in a way that we don't expect because right now things are pretty ambiguous. Alec Pierce is staying in Indianapolis. Michael Pittman he got traded to Pittsburgh, and Daniel Jones he's staying as a cult too, but I won't dig that far into him today. The Peers. The contract is interesting because the Colts' actions seem to dictate that they're treating Pierce as more of an alpha in that room. But that's never been Pierce's game. I mentioned this in the Perspective episode last week, but Pierce, dating back to high school, has never had a season with at least a twenty two percent target shair All four years at Cincinnati, he was above a seventeen percent target shair just once, and it was twenty one point six percent according to PFF data. In the NFL, where we have four years of data, he's topped out in an eighteen percent target chair. Now, I think we're definitely gonna see more looks funneled Pierce's way with the departure of Michael Pittman. Even if they add someone in the draft, it's a rookie that he'd be competing with. They seem very set and keeping Josh Downs in the slot. Though I do think a low ball offer for Josh Downs right now in Dynasty not a bad idea because I personally think that he's better than just a slock guy. And what if they just change their tune because of the lack of resources. But we need that leap and target share for Pierce to really hit a truer ceiling in fantasy football. We haven't seen a top twelve wide receiver in PPR points per game over the last two years with a target share below twenty two percent, and we've only had seven of them since twenty seventeen. Now, I can't definitively say that I'm gonna be in er out with Alec Pierce right now because his cost is really what's going to drive that point. But I think the volume concern is very real for Pierce, the fact that he's just never been that true alpha. He's a good player, and he's gotten better throughout his entire career, and that's huge. I think that's actually pretty key. There's a favorable trajectory, so there's always that chance that he just keeps getting better. It just becomes a cost benefit thing. And then speaking of volume with Pittman, I think he could end up being a better real life fit than fantasy fit in Pittsburgh. He can win some of those lower aid dot looks if Aaron Rodgers is under center for the Steelers this year, and Pittman can play inside and out while DK Metcalf stretches the field, which is what he's done throughout his career. I said this on the show last week. Though Pittman had his worst YAK per reception last year, and that was on a fairly low a dot. I think we at least need to be open to the idea that Michael Pittman just is cooked, that he's just not the same player that he was just a few years ago. And let's be real, from a fantasy perspective, throughout his career, he's been a fairly volume dependent receiver. I do wonder whether that's gonna look like in the Steelers offense now. I doubt anyone's going crazy into buying Michael Pittman after this move, So, like Pierce, let's just see where the dust settles now. I don't know if we're calling him Travis a chan officially right now, after he told the media that ETN is actually a chan. That's how you pronounce it. Has anyone asked Trevor by the way, as someone with the last name that people mispronounced all the time. I get it that he's not out there correcting people constantly, but I also don't care at this point if someone says Zacharison. So I doubt he'll really care if the Late Round podcast host calls him ETN for today's episode. But how about Travis, let's just call him Travis. Travis signed a deal with the Saints to be their lead back. Hypothetically, Alvin Kamara is still on that roster, but I'm assuming something's gonna change there. If it doesn't, ETN at least takes some hit or Travis. Sorry, I thought Debros summed this move up well on last week's show. ETN is a volume grab. The same situation should improve year over year as long as you see a natural development from Tyler Schuck. But they were dead last in pp her points last season as a backfield. And while I do think Travis is a solid running back, he really wasn't that special last year. When you dig in. He saw volume, yes, but his rate of gaining ten or more yards was average. He had a far worse success rate than Beshal Tuton. His rushing yards overexpected per rush according to Next Gen Stats, was thirty second out of forty eight qualified running backs, and he actually failed to hit a ten percent target chair all while getting to kind of a whatever one point zero five yards per route run rate. Now, these numbers aren't the end all. You know how I generally feel about running back numbers and their predictiveness, But I do think the overall story that it's painting is that Travis he's just solid, not elite. But I do expect volume to be there for him, and that's what's most important for fantasy football. I'm just hoping that this price doesn't get out of control. The more interesting backfield stemming from this move is Jacksonville's with Travis Gohn. The Jags have Bashall Tuton, LeQuinn Allen, and now Chris Rodriguez as well. And man, there's a huge divide right now in the fantasy football world. I don't know if you're seeing it, but if you go on social media, you'll see this divide. You're either on team Chris Rodriguez or team Bashall Tuton. Now, you guys already know where I generally lean here, but let's talk through this. Everything always depends on cost. I don't know where Tuton's gonna end up. I don't know where Chris Rodriguez is gonna end up, but I do have takes on just generally how I feel about these players. Rodriguez is a very good early down bruiser. That's what he's been throughout his NFL career. He's actually been one of the best tackle breakers. When comes to the data, PFF charted him with an above average avoided tackles per attempt last year, and he was top ten in yards after contact per attempt among one hundred plus attempt rushers. He's been great within that metric throughout his career. No one should really question if Rodriguez is decent between the tackles. He's decent. That's why he's going to be involved in this offense. This wasn't just some depth signing. He also has a history with Liam Cohen. The issue that I have with focusing so heavily on the rushing analysis is that fantasy football is one with a more well rounded profile. Otherwise it's just Jordan Mason or Gus Edwards, where we're just crossing our fingers that the guy finds the end zone. And Chris Rodriguez has never proven to be a pass catcher. He had twenty receptions in five collegiate seasons. He's got six total passes in three NFL seasons. And I was actually curious about this. I was curious if we've ever seen, at least in recent history, if we've seen a running back was so so few receptions after three seasons go on and be fantasy relevant in some way. So I looked at all running backs who started their career in twenty eleven or later who then had an opportunity to play three seasons in the league. I then looked at all running backs who had twenty or fewer receptions across their first three years, and then I looked to see if any of them became relevant after year three. Only one player scored more than thirteen ppyard points per game in a season after failing to reach twenty receptions through three years, and that was raheem mostered. You had some players get into that twelve point range, including ric o'dowdele, but absolutely none of the running backs listed were fantasy football staples. And the crazy thing is that you could limit that to thirty receptions across the player's first three years. You'll start to get some better names like mark Ingram and JK. Dobbins, but it's really a rare thing to have happen. The reason we see this is because obviously receiving matters a lot in fantasy football, especially in PPR formats, but it's also a signal of talent. If a player is more well rounded, he's probably more talented unless he's just Derrick Henry Rodriguez is just one of those players to me who can definitely beat his ADP depending on where it lands. But I don't play fantasy football for the RB forty or the RB thirty to finish five to ten running back spots higher than that. I want serious upside, and to me, that lies more with Bashall Tutin in this backfield. It may not come to fruition. Again, Let's see if this hype train gets out of control before we say we definitively need to invest in base Shall Tuton. Like me, saying Tutin has more upside is not an automatic endorsement no matter what, because cost matters. What I am saying here, though, is that if there's a running back who emerges from this backfield and becomes a fantasy football stud, I'm gonna say it's Bashall Tuton versus Chris Rodriguez. Because for Rodriguez to be that guy, he's probably gonna need to score a lot of touchdowns because I don't think the receiving work is going to be amazing. Whereas Basehall Tuton, he actually had a decent receiving profile entering the NFL, and like I said, there were some marks last year where he looked good. He had a way better success rate than Travis etn. But if you want to read more about base Shall Tuten, I have his profile in that prospect guid in the year two section. But look, guys, I think this is just a game theory thing. This is how I play fantasy football, how I think others should play fantasy football. I don't want the single. I want the home run. It's why I've talked this exact way about Jordan Mason or Tank Bigsby in the past. The past catching up side just isn't there. I want the home run, and to me currently today that home run upside lies with base Shall Tuton. Mike Evans of San Francisco is very interesting. Evans analytically had a down year, at least within the production and efficiency metrics that we tend to focus on. His one point six to two yards per route run that was a career low. He had an abysmal one point one yards after the catch per reception, and that wasn't on some abnormally high average depth of target. He also scored just three times in eight games. That's not great for him, But we have to keep in mind that per game numbers are going to be skewed a little bit when a player leaves the game early. And then on top of that, Evans was just hurt throughout the season. Baker Mayfield was also not very good last year. Out of over one hundred and twenty qualified wide receivers, both Evans and teammate and Mecca Buca ranked outside the top one hundred and catchable target rates last year. What I like to see about Evans profiles that the volume still wasn't bad. His twenty three percent target shair is solid, especially when you consider the injuries, and he saw target on twenty seven percent of his routes run That was actually much higher than his career average. So on one hand, his effectiveness suffered, his numbers didn't look great, But on the other we know that his quarterback play wasn't strong last year and he was still targeted at a really strong rate. Now he goes to a friendly offensive environment in San Francisco where say what you want about brock Purty, but he was second in completion percentage over expected last year according to Extend Stats, and he was eighth the year prior. He also finished first in the NFL last year and completion rate on twenty plus air yard throws, and we know that Mike Evans can win down the field. George Kittle's coming off a brutal injury. Juwan Jennings isn't there anymore, neither his friend of the show Kendrick Bourne. Brandon Aiyuk won't be back. Ricky Pearsall hasn't proven to be the guy yet. This situation really couldn't be better for Mike Evans if he stays healthy. That's obviously a big if, but I like this a lot from a fantasy perspective. Now. Admittedly, I've been somewhat of a Kyler Murray apologist in the past, and if you listen to the Late Round show, you heard me get very excited about Kyler Murray going to the Vikings when it was more of a rumor. But it's not a rumor anymore. It's real. I'm not going to pretend like I can evaluate quarter play as well as I can evaluate the other skill positions. It's really really difficult. It's often a between the ears thing for these guys, and we don't have access to that, and we have to rely on situation and coaching matches to really feel confident situationally. This is pretty great for Kyler. The weapons are great around him, and there weren't many spots out there where we'd feel this good in general. I do think though, that my friend Rich reebar or Sharp Football Analysis, he made a great point about Kyler Murray joining the Vikings. We're not seeing as many spread based offenses in today's game than we were earlier in Kyler's career. Quarterbacks are having to play better down the middle of the field, and this is a big reason that JAJ McCarthy was a problem for Minnesota last year. As Rich noted quote on throws between the hashes over the past four seasons when the defensive shifts started to take place, Murray ranks forty third in rating out of the fifty passers to throw the ball five hundred plus times. From a fantasy perspective, though, I think we get the following a better floor for the Vikings passing attack compared to last year with JJ McCarthy, because even Kyler Murray's worst season was better than JJ McCarthy last year. Let's be real. Meanwhile, Murray's averaged four point seven rushing yards per game or better every season of his career. Murray's not really the type of quarterback that we've seen with Kevin O'Connell, even if you just look at under center rates. But I also think that we're bound to see this offense morph into one that fits Murray himself. That's what good coaches do. So if you believe in that happening, which I do, you should probably believe in Murray being an interesting later round pick this year because if it clicks. From a passing perspective, the ceiling is really nice given we know that rushing production should be there. I actually think Murray's upside is greater than Malik Willis has just given the offensive environment. Willis is going to Miami and we should assume that he's going to be starting. I'm probably gonna be in on him from a fantasy perspective, just because we know how important rushing is. Willis was a high end QB one and two of his three starts with a Packers. That's because in those games he gave fantasy managers three rushing touchdowns. The ground game stuff should not be debated with Malik Willis. He is a phenomenal rusher and that's always something that we should be looking for with the fantasy quarterback, the mobility, the rushing. But Willis still has an unknown arm. Literally he's only thrown the ball one hundred and fifty five times in the NFL. But in that Brandon Gadula newsletter blast last week, he did say this, which was really interesting. Willis is a career fifteen plus air yard rate of twenty four point five percent. The league average since twenty eleven is eighteen point one percent, two a tounu of iloas it was fourteen point one percent or under in each of the last two seasons. So Malik Willis has been pushing it deep. We're probably gonna see this Dolphins offense attempt a ton of explosive plays with Malik Willis under center, and with him having the floor that he has, that can generate a really high weekly ceiling when those plays hit. Now quarterback is deep enough where Willis is going to be a cube adp and historically, when you can find mobile quarterbacks in QB two land, they generally give us just as high as ceilings as earlier round pocket passers. It may be a bad situation for someone like Devon A Chan in particular, who really relied on heavy receiving usage with Mike McDaniel. But Willis himself should be on everyone's late round radar if he wasn't already one wide receiver. I want to just move through quickly and just touch on his Romeo. Dobbs going to New England, mostly because right now, if you look at that depth chart, he's basically staring at the highest target chair on the team next year. But I don't want to fall victim to just drafting Dobbs because of some default because of the lack of competition there. Usually at wide receiver, you need good players to earn those targets. Now, I think Dobbs is good, but probably not great. He's impressively improved his yards per rout run every year of his career. That's great, but it's never been like elite. He maxed out last year at a one point seventy three yards per out run rate, and that's in a Matt laflor off that typically yields stronger per route run numbers. Now, I think the signing was fine, but Dobbs isn't someone who I'm jumping for joy over as a player who's likely to ascend to some alpha in this league, which tells me that we're going to see a lot of spread out targets in New England next year, depending on what they do in the draft. But even in the draft, they could go at the end of the first three rounds and try to get a wide receiver. I just don't think that this class is littered with obvious talent at wide out. It's a solid class. It's better a wide receiver than it is running back. But I don't think there's obvious obvious talent at the end of the first round, into the second round, and into the third. So that's not bad for Dobbs in the short term. My overall sentiment here, it's a little bit of an upgrade from green Bay simply because there's way less talent in the way. But I'm honestly more intrigued about green Bay without Dobbs, even though this is likely going to happen. Christian Watson looked great last year, Jaden Reed has always been super efficient, and then maybe there's a little bit more juice with Matthew Golden than what we saw last year. Even if I think has a ton of red flags but less of a rotation in Green Bay could equate to more fantasy goodness for their wide receivers. The biggest tight end signing was probably Isaiah Likely. He's back with his head coach, but now he's in New York with Jackson Dart. It sounded like Derek Brown was pretty bullish on this signing base on his reaction on perspectives last week, and I get it, but I'm probably like a notch down from that. I'll say this first, where I definitely agree with debro is that we should be shooting for upside at tight end, So why would we not get a guy like Likely. I think that's pretty valid. If a later round pick doesn't pan out, it's not that big of a deal. But here's the thing. The dude has seen at best a target on nineteen percent of his routes in a given season since his rookie campaign. His yards per route run has never hit one point six, and yet he's played with Mark Andrews. But let's not pretend that Andrews has been Stutley over the last couple of seasons. He was actually horrific this last year on a per route run basis. I just don't think that Likely has definitively shown us that he can be a high volume fantasy football stud when there are definitely people who are in love with his skill set. With that being said, it's a pretty open pass catching room and the Giants they lost Wandel Robinson out of the slot, so likely he could be freed up for some looks there. THEO Johnson could be somewhat of a blocker for likely, and I do think opportunities should be okay overall, I just don't want to get two out of hand here because he's had opportunities in the past. He's had opportunities to prove that he's elite at least on a per route run basis, and that has not shown up. And that tight end I really just won an elite guy, or I'm just not going to really care that much about the position. Okay. I think one of the big fantasy football centric stories from free agency this year were all the small running back signings and trades. Can't forget about David Montgomery. So to close out today's show, I'm gonna give really quick thoughts on some of those situations. David Montgomery to Houston. He gets a pretty decent contract. I'd expect him to be the early down bruiser in the goal line guy, playing a similar role that he did with early career Jamier Gibbs would he Marx would be sort of the change of pace, maybe the pass catching specialist. But the offensive situation for Houston it's not fantastic. They needed a player like David Montgomery who could hopefully create some of those yards. Rico Dowdell to Pittsburgh. Jalen Warren plays more of a pass catching role, but Mike McCarthy has a history with Rico Dowdell. I'm not going to be surprised, to add all. If Dowdell sees more work on the ground, like a sixty to forty type split and that goal line work, it's a bad offensive situation, though more than likely. Tyler Algier to Arizona. People have been waiting for Trey Benson, but this is a new coaching staff and Benson, in my opinion and I have receipts, he was an overrated prospect. It was different last year when the cost to acquire Benson was just so low in redraft after all those injuries happened, but then he just didn't return to the lineup. James Connor's coming off a big injury. He's clearly on the wrong side of the age curve. So there's Algier. On one hand, he hasn't been that much of a pass catcher throughout his career. He's maxed out at a four point six percent target chair. On the other he's played with Bijon Robinson. But I will say this, his yards prout run has generally been kind of iffy. I don't think we'd consider Tyler Algeer a huge plus as a receiver. The reason I think Arizona one in Algier is because Mike Lafleur he's now head coach there, and Algier has been strong on outside zone runs. Over the last two years. He's ranked top ten in outside zone success rate. I don't think we should be overly bullish because of the receiving stuff. But if there is a running back who I'd expect to see the most work in that backfield next year, it's Tyler Algier. Kenneth Gainwell to Tampa Bay. I'm not gonna lie you, guys. I'm nervous about Bucky Irving's upside. Not only did Kenneth Gainwell sign with Tampa Bay, but the Bucks kept Sean Tucker. He was the goal line back for them down the stretch last year. I'm nervous about Irving right now here in March because he gets I see a lot of between the twenties touches with a slightly kepped receiving ceiling given gain Will's ability as a pass catcher. And then he also wouldn't see the goal line stuff, so I wouldn't dismiss this signing. The one thing keeping me in check with Irving is that new offensive coordinator Zach Robinson made a Bijon Robinson comparison when talking about Bucky Irving when he first joined the team. When Robinson joined the team. But that's also just straight up coach speak to me. When you sign Kenneth Gainwell, when you take that action, you're doing it because you know what he can bring to the table as a receiver. And that was all while losing Rashad White to the Commanders. Washington also got Jerome Ford. No, those are both general wins in my opinion for Jacorey Krossky merrit as long as your expectations weren't out of control. For Bill to begin with, he showed us very little as a receiver as a rookie, and his receiving profile in college was really lacking. So I don't think Krossky Merritt is all of a sudden gonna be a bell cow. But I do think competition wise, Rashad White and Jerome Ford not bad. We'll see if something happens though with Jeremiah Love in the draft. Isaiah Pacheco to Detroit generally the right kind of fit, but he's a downgrade from David Montgomery, so Jamir gives to the moon. I think Keaton Mitchell to the Chargers is really interesting from a fit perspective, because we know Mike McDaniel, now their offensive coordinator, loves speed, so don't lose sight of Keaton Mitchell. But the last big one to get to here is JK. Dobbins staying in Denver. I've actually changed my tune since January, at least a little bit, given the overall sentiment with RJ. Harvey. I thought he was a clear sell to start the off season, and I believe that to be true at that time, But then there were all sorts of reports about the Broncos adding someone significant to that backfield, and prices started to fall for RJ. Harvey. My takes change as the market changes. Since that show, his running back ranking on keep Trade Cut has gotten down six to seven spots. That's pretty significant. But really I think the runout here for RJ. Harvey has been pretty good. There were strong rumors that someone like Kenneth Walker was gonna go to Denver, and we know Dobbins hasn't been able to stay healthy throughout his career. I do have to say, though, that Dobbins was better than RJ. Harvey on the ground last year. I pretty much every statistical category. Harvey was one of the worst running backs in rushing yards over expected per rush according to Next Gen Stats. Dobbins wasn't deployed that much as a receiver though. That helps Harvey a ton in fantasy football because that was the thing that allowed him to stay relevant in fantasy football last year. Now, the team re signed Jualil McLaughlin to a one year deal too, But Benjamin Albright, who covers the Broncos, he said on Twitter quote Broncos continued to build out the ninety man. This obviously does not affect their plans to draft a running back, so we're not yet in the clear. With RJ. Harvey. I just am not a huge fan of this running back class. So there aren't a ton of options that would really scare me with RJ Harvey this year because I would assume they're not going to get Jeremiah Love. So here's where I'm at with Harvey. If your expectations that he can be in RB two, have some pass catching work and do work from that perspective, I think that's reasonable. I just don't think he's going to be a bell cow. I never thought he was going to be a bell cow. But I do think that where I was a month ago or two months ago and saying that RJ. Harvey was a clear sell, just based on what the market has done, I think now he's probably more of a hold because he's still going to be involved in that offense, and truthfully, the receiving stuff for him last year really not that bad. So that was a lot. I covered a lot of situations. I talked about a lot of players. I threw a lot of stats at you. Hopefully there was something in all of that that made you think a little bit differently about what went down in free agency this year. But that's it for today's show. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are a by stretching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening to everyone. We're back with the Late ren On Show on YouTube on Wednesday at noon, and I've got a mailbag episode later in the week, and make sure you're checking out the Late Round Prospect Guide Lateround dot com. I'll talk to you guys soon.