949: Mailbag 11/22/24

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ ZACHERAJJ Zachers.

00:00:11
Speaker 2: What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ zachar Eson in this episode nine and forty nine of the Late Round Fantasy football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in Before gonn email back questions. I want to remind you to check out Underdog right now. Over on Underdog you can draft teams for playoff contest.

00:00:31
Speaker 2: That's right.

00:00:31
Speaker 1: It's November, so you may feel like it's a little bit early for this, but you can get ahead of the field if you have a good grasp on which teams are gonna make the playoffs and which ones won't. To check out those contests, along with a ton of other variations, head to Underdog Fantasy dot com and sign up with promo.

00:00:46
Speaker 2: Code Late Round.

00:00:48
Speaker 1: That'll get you a nice deposit offer, and it will also get you a link to my rest of season rankings. That's if you sign up with promo code Late Round, make a deposit, and start playing. The first question this week is from Patreon.

00:01:02
Speaker 2: It's from Joey.

00:01:03
Speaker 1: It says what factors are important to consider when stashing a defense versus insurance? Running Backs this time of year have good odds of making the playoffs and a pretty solid crop of running backs and Bijohn Robinson, Chase Brown, and Tyrone Tracy. So I talked about this a little bit of my Patreon only live stream this week, which I do every week for the record, but I almost feel like people have taken defensive stashing like way too far. There's a lot of volatility with defenses. Part of the reason that you can stream them is because of that volatility. The defensive performance itself is largely driven by the matchup that they're facing, so you'll get bad defenses doing well in a given week all the time. That makes defensive rankings pretty inconsistent from one week to the next. You're also only starting one of them in your lineup, so a whole lot of defenses are usually available. Each team is usually only rostering one, especially early on in the season. Just for some proof that defensive streaming works, I do another podcast every week during the season called Living the Stream, and on that show, me and my co host Denny Carter, we keep track of our streaming picks. Our Frankenstein defense each year usually ends up as the equivalent of like the third best defense in fantasy football. It's on a point per game basis. That's my only using defenses rostered in very few leagues. Some of that is because you can find defenses in plus matchups and just use them, but some of it is just because the same defenses aren't performing well every single week, because there's a lot of variance, so it's just simply not that hard to match higher end defenses. Now I get why people are stashing defenses.

00:02:45
Speaker 2: I do it too.

00:02:46
Speaker 1: You want to feel good about that starting spot in the playoffs, but right now we're sitting three weeks away from the start of the fantasy playoffs. Just because you're in the playoffs doesn't mean that your team can't get worse as we get closer to the playoffs. Injuries can still happen, and if an injury does happen, let's say to your starting running back, there's absolutely no doubt that a backup running back is gonna be more valuable in that scenario than a defense. You're gonna get some production from that backup running back more than likely, especially if he's a high end handcuff. But even if you don't have a defense for the playoff weeks, like here in week twelve, if you don't have a defense for weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen. I would bet that there's still gonna be a defense or two that you can get off the waiver wire when those weeks hit, And I bet that there's less competition for those defenses because fewer teams in your league are actually playing in the playoffs, there's less competition on the waiver wire. So why go out of your way and stash defenses right now when there is an opportunity cost Like I couldn't imagine stashing a defense over someone like Braylan Allen right now. If Breesell goes down Allen's in RB two and Fantasy football, maybe people would say that's not even high enough. He'd have at least predictable volume, and the Jets have a gorgeous playoff schedule. You're gonna stash the Buccaneers defense over that when you could get to week fifteen, Week sixteen, and week seventeen and.

00:04:18
Speaker 2: Probably find a good enough defense during those weeks.

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Speaker 1: Anyway, it's not like you're guaranteed the points from the defense that you're stashing, and defenses are not super predictable. You're not guaranteed points from Braylen Allen. Sure, but it's a much more important position, and that volume and that production is gonna be more predictable, So I'm much more likely to keep decent handcuffs than defenses. There's still gonna be instances where I'm stashing a defense, but the upside exists with running backs, There's no doubt in my mind. And something related to this are the questions that I get about which defense is best to have for the playoffs. Now. I talked about this a bit last week on this show on the but you shouldn't have the mindset that you're playing one defense throughout the fantasy playoffs. You're not doing that during the regular season. Why would that change during the playoffs. I don't understand. Why are you changing up your strategy. Nothing has changed, You're still playing the game of fantasy football. I just think that we've gotten to the point where we're totally over analyzing this. Stashing defenses is fine. What I think is not fine is doing it over very valuable assets who play much more important positions that don't have as much variance. Because remember, in a worst case scenario, when you get to week fifteen, when you get to week sixteen.

00:05:41
Speaker 2: In most leagues, you'll still be able.

00:05:43
Speaker 1: To find a streaming defense, even if you don't feel as confident in that defense as the.

00:05:49
Speaker 2: One that you would have stashed. The true difference between those two.

00:05:53
Speaker 1: Defenses won't be that significant, at least from a probability perspective. This asked question is also from Patreon. It's from Devin. It says super biased Khalil Shakir Fan here. I'd love to hear your thought process on his Dynasty ranking. He seems to only be one to two touchdowns away from being a top twenty wide receiver. Why wouldn't he be considered a Dynasty wide receiver twenty four tied to Josh Allen. So when I get questions like this, when someone asks, why isn't this guy a top twenty a top twenty four wide receiver? I try to respond with who are you ranking ahead of him? Because if you look at rankings and you just pinpoint one player and you say he's too low, you need context. You can't just make assumptions. And I'm not saying that you're doing this, Devin, but it happens all the time. When I publish rankings, people just look for one singular player and don't ask themselves who should he be ranked ahead of and below? So let's talk about that context. A top twenty wide receiver according to keep Trade cut Land. You in this area of DeVante Smith or Jaden Reid or t Higgins or Chris Alave or tyreek Hill or Brandon Ayuk or Tank Dell or Terry McLaurin. You see where I'm going here. It's absolutely fine to be bullish on Khalil Shakir and he's gonna rise in my dynasty rankings. Since my last update, which happened at the start of the month, he's seen target shares of thirty one percent, nineteen percent, twenty six percent, and thirty two percent over his last four games. But I think we still need to ground ourselves here. And I'm including myself because as a lot of you know, I'm also a Khalil Shakir stan. My model liked him a lot coming out. He was someone that I went to bat for. He's one of my favorite wide receivers in the league. Like I said, though, we have to ground ourselves. Shakier has been a slot guy this year, as we'd expect. His average depth of target is four now, there's nothing wrong with cheaper targets, and he's been very good at what he does. I think they can expand his role more. But when it comes to how he's performing and how he should be performing, which is kind of what you're getting at here, you saying that he seems to only be one to two touchdowns away from being a top twenty wide receiver, I disagree. I just don't agree with that because the fact is he's not getting those touchdowns for a reason. His usage dictates that he shouldn't be getting those touchdowns. According to PFF, based on where Shakira is seeing his looks, he should have just one point five touchdowns this season. Those are his expected touchdowns. He's actually playing above expectation in the touchdown column despite seeing a twenty two percent target share per game rate. How is that possible? Well, again, he has a four yard a dot. He hadn't seen an end zone target this year according to PFF data until last week. Fantasy Life's data has Shakira at a ten percent air yard share this season percent. Do you know who has a higher air yard share in their offense? Jalen Brooks, Justin Watson, Nelson, Agalore we can't just look at raw targets and assume they're all equal, and we can't assume that a player playing one role at wide receiver is playing the same role as another wide receiver. Shaki is good at what he does. He's got some room to grow, for sure, but he's still not proven to be in the same tier as someone like Jayden Reid who does what Shakir does. But he's proven to be more explosive. He just has more competition and has been able to maintain the same type of target share that Khalil Shakira has seen. But I can't imagine right now wanting Shakir over Jaden Reed in Dynasty or even some of the other more established players that I just mentioned. Shakiir is good. I'm a huge, huge fan. I hope he keeps seeing his volume. I hope he balls out for my fantasy team's sake. I would won him on my Dynasty rosters. But let's not get carried away. This as question is from Twitter, It's from at just drew it. It says is will Disley legit. I can't help but to think that this can come to a hard stop any game, but also can't argue with his usage and volume recently. I mean, what do we mean by legit? Do I think he's all of a sudden an elite tight end in football?

00:10:24
Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 1: Do I think we found a great combination of his skill set in the system that he's in. Yes, first off, as a prospect, my tight end model seemed to be pretty indifferent with will Disley. It basically viewed him as a prospect that was properly valued at his draft capital. Within the model, which includes all drafted tight ends over the last nine years, he was slightly above average, but he was mostly just average. Now. Disney played six NFL seasons before this year. In small samples, during his first and second years, he did have really good yards parole run numbers, but he ran one hundred and five and sixty seven routes during those two seasons. It's not really a big sample. In seasons where he ran more routes, albeit not significantly more, he was in the yards per rout run range of about one point two to one point three. That's pretty mediocre, but there's always context that's needed. He was in an offense that didn't always prioritize tight ends, and he was competing for targets with some decent wide receivers that can lower his yards per route run rate. The opposite is happening now. The Chargers don't have elite pass catchers. Though Lab McConkey is looking really good. This offense prioritizes tight ends more, and the Chargers have also had a really efficient passing attack of late. His usage has been different this year. He's run one hundred and seventy six routes this season. According to PFF. He's reached over two hundred routes run in just two seasons throughout his career. He'll probably set a career high end routes run this year, and his yards per route run is two like the Dude's bawling out, and that number has been even better in recent weeks. But let's not take this production too far. Yes, his target shairs are fantastic. He's averaging a twenty three percent target chair per game rate over his last five but he's also finished higher than tight.

00:12:09
Speaker 2: End eighteen in just two of those five games.

00:12:12
Speaker 1: In PPR formats, he's averaging ten point eight PPR points per game during this time. Because he still has a lower a dot role, his average up the target has just never been very high throughout his career. Now I think he can keep up that kind of production. I would not expect week eleven, though, to happen each week. His a dot really spiked last week. It was higher than normal. That's not gonna happen week in and week out. But can he be a serviceable tight end for streamers, like a low end tight end one? I think that's possible in this offense. The last question this week is also from twitters from at sash Beniatz says, hey, JJ, bigfan of the pod.

00:12:53
Speaker 2: Thanks.

00:12:54
Speaker 1: Acquiring high variance players can be the key to making the playoffs and hopefully winning a championship. What are key factors you are looking for to identify players that are not only high variants but also most likely to go crazy late season. So I think what's important to distinguish here is the difference between a high variance player and a potential breakout player, Because you're saying, what are the key factors that I'm looking for to identify players that are high variants but also who are the most likely to go crazy late in the season. High variance doesn't necessarily mean someone who breaks out. There's definitely some overlap there, but I think we're talking about two different things.

00:13:31
Speaker 2: In general.

00:13:32
Speaker 1: High variance to me means someone who could be a zero or a hero right And to me, there are ways to treat variants in your fantasy lineup. It's the stuff that I talk about each week on the show. If you're a good team, you may want to lower your variance by handcuffing your own running backs. If you're a middling team, if you need a spark, if you need to embrace some of the variants and volatility of fantasy football, you might want to handcuff someone else's running back. That's the easy example to give. But there are also players like Jamison Williams. Let's say he's a higher variance player given the role that he plays in his offense and the variability that we see with his target shairs, but I don't think that we would consider him like someone who would be a breakout candidate down the stretch. If the question here is simply what are you looking for to spot players who can come out of nowhere and perform during the latter parts of the season, then I think there are three things that I look for most. The first is youth. I say it all the time, but rookies will outperform expectation more during the second half of the season versus the first, which is not a surprise. I've done multiple episodes in this topic for both running backs and wide receivers. You also want talent. You want to have that backbone. You'll see more breakouts from just better players than untalented ones. And I can say objectively better by simply looking at the tools that I have out there, like my prospect model. So you want youth, you want talent, and you also want some ambiguity with the roles on that player's team. You want there to be a path to relevancy. Maybe ad Ni Mitchell eventually overtakes Alec Pierce on that depth chart and he plays that role. But even if he's in that role, what type of production would we expect to see?

00:15:19
Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 1: I think Mitchell is better than Pierce. If I'm the Colts, I'd want to get ad Ni Mitchell some reps. But how consistent, how predictable, how good of a fantasy asset would ad Ni Mitchell be in like an eightieth percentile outcome? The difference here? I know that I talked about him as an ad before. The difference here is that Michael Pittman is healthy. That path has a roadblock. If we were to assume that Michael Pittman was not healthy, this is a totally different discussion. I would much rather be looking for players who have a clearer path, and if that path comes to fruition, if they get more playing time, I'd want to make sure that they're in a good environment. Like I have, I've no idea Jayalen McMillan is actually going to turn the corner and be a usable fantasy asset down the stretch. In fact, i'd probably say there's a way better chance that he doesn't become something great as opposed to him becoming something great. But that does not mean that we should ignore him. We're playing a game of probability, and the cost to acquire is next to nothing aside from a spot on your bench. The difference between a guy like McMillan and someone like ADENI. Mitchell is that, sure, their talent profiles are different. My model liked Mitchell more than McMillan, largely due to draft capital, but I do think that Mitchell is better. But the difference between McMillan and Mitchell is that McMillan already has a chance, or at least hypothetically he has a chance, but he has a chance to play meaningful snaps. There's still that hurdle of Alec Pierce that Mitchell needs to get over. And then once they're in, once they're playing, once they're getting reps. The Buccaneers offense, given the quarterback, given the way that offense operates, given the schedule, the Bucks offense is more advantageous than the Colts offense for a wide receiver. So I'll lean into McMillan more, which is why he was an AD on the fifteen Transactions episode. And let's cross our fingers that the Bucks start using him in the slot because that's his natural position.

00:17:22
Speaker 2: But that's the process.

00:17:23
Speaker 1: Like you're gonna miss on a ton of players when you're talking about bench stashes, but you're looking to increase your probability of hitting, and this is one way to do that.

00:17:32
Speaker 2: And it's not just rookies either. For the record, you.

00:17:35
Speaker 1: Can sort of mix and match some of these things that I'm talking about. If it's a second or third year player who's shown signs but maybe he's been hurt or something. I mean there are other ways to look at this. I'm just saying that the type of player that's not a handcuff, that's not dependent on an injury, the type of player that I'm looking at is gonna be a young one who is a good prospect and who's sitting in an ambiguous situation. That's really something you can carry over to almost anything fantasy football related to. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by startling for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB Mulso on Blue Sky with the exact same handle, so follow me there. Thanks for listening. Everyone got a Late Round Perspective episode that's dropping soon. Hope you give that a listen. Otherwise, good luck in week twelve by Apocalypse, I'll talk to you next week