Dimon Warning on Economy; TikTok Divestment Bill Gains Steam

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Good morning, I'm Nathan 0:00:12.119 --> 0:00:15.080 Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're 0:00:15.120 --> 0:00:15.960 following today. 0:00:16.400 --> 0:00:20.279 One of Wall Street's heavyweights says the US economy is 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:23.079 not out of the woods yet. We get the details 0:00:23.079 --> 0:00:24.920 from Bloomberg's John Tucker, John. 0:00:24.800 --> 0:00:28.160 And Nathan Jamie Diamond says, don't take a US recession 0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:31.200 off the table just yet. The JP Morgan Chase CEO 0:00:31.360 --> 0:00:33.360 telling a business son of the chance of a soft 0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:35.600 landing in the next year or two, he's about thirty 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:39.400 five to forty percent. Diamond says, economic indicators and been 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:42.479 distorted by COVID nineteen and he takes them with a 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:46.160 grain of salt. Diamond telling the Financial Review business summit 0:00:46.240 --> 0:00:49.040 in Sydney this morning, well, the US economy is kind 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:52.680 of booming currently, the risk of a recession remains. His 0:00:52.760 --> 0:00:56.440 comments strike a slightly less optimistic tone in than the past. 0:00:56.760 --> 0:01:00.720 He's also advising the Federal Reserve wait for more before 0:01:00.760 --> 0:01:04.160 lowering interest rates. Offen Schaar Jerome Powell last week suggest 0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:06.679 that the Central Bank is getting close to the confidence 0:01:06.720 --> 0:01:10.039 it needs to start lowering interest rates, and traders are 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:14.040 fully pricing in a June rate cut. John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio. 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:17.440 All right, John, Thanks. While investors analyze Jamie Diamond's take 0:01:17.480 --> 0:01:20.200 on the economy, they'll get another key reading on inflation. 0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:23.679 This morning, we get the February reading on consumer prices 0:01:23.880 --> 0:01:26.080 and a preview with Bloomberg's Michael McKee. 0:01:26.200 --> 0:01:29.880 Two things should define February consumer prices, base effects and 0:01:30.080 --> 0:01:33.800 seasonal factors. Because inflation was high a year ago, even 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:36.480 a fairly strong rise in prices will still send the 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:40.600 year over year numbers lower. The Fed will see continued progress. 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:44.240 January was also influenced by turn of the year price 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:47.600 increases that aren't expected to be repeated, which should mean 0:01:47.680 --> 0:01:51.320 a retreat from that month's strong increase in inflation. The 0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:55.120 category to watch, as always is housing. The government's home 0:01:55.160 --> 0:02:00.240 ownership calculation was unexpectedly hot in January. Economists think that 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:01.880 fell back in February. 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:02.160 Micha. 0:02:02.160 --> 0:02:03.560 I'm m Keey, Bloomberg Radio. 0:02:03.400 --> 0:02:04.080 All right, Mike, Thanks. 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:06.880 Dan Asia's speculation is growing that the Bank of Japan 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:10.160 may be getting closer to raising interest rates. The decisions 0:02:10.200 --> 0:02:12.959 do to be made at next week's policy meeting, and 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:15.480 sources to say a final decision will be made after 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:19.000 official see. The initial tally from spring wage talks on 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:22.679 Friday April remains the most popular prediction for a rate 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:26.120 move from the boj among economists surveyed by Bloomberg. 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:29.360 Well in Europe, Nathan Rupert Murdoch and News Corps designing 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:31.880 a joint bid for the Telegraph newspaper, and we get 0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:34.320 the details from Bloomberg cun parts Ewan. 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:37.240 Good morning, karenon Nathan, it's the battle for the one 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:40.760 hundred and seventy five year old Telegraph newspaper. Bloomberger has 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:43.160 learned that Rupert Murdoch's News Corps, together with the owner 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:45.560 of the Daily Mail newspaper of Hell, talks about a 0:02:45.560 --> 0:02:49.080 potential joint takeover of the Telegraph. The bid would come 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:53.200 together with UAE backed investment fund Redbird IMI. Now a 0:02:53.280 --> 0:02:55.600 joint bid would result in a smaller state for the 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:59.440 Amorti Fund, and that's important because British politicians have expressed 0:02:59.520 --> 0:03:02.160 uneasy about the sale of a street newspaper to a 0:03:02.160 --> 0:03:05.399 Middle Eastern investor. I'm your pelt'spoinback radio. 0:03:05.160 --> 0:03:06.919 All right you and thank you. Back In the US, 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:09.639 President Biden's mapping out a vision for a second term. 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:12.760 In his budget request for the next fiscal year, The 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:16.280 seven point three trillion dollar proposal calls for monthly tax 0:03:16.320 --> 0:03:20.560 credits to offset high mortgage rates, childcare subsidies for parents, 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:23.440 and new powers to lower prescription drug costs. It would 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:26.359 be paid for in part with higher corporate taxes and 0:03:26.400 --> 0:03:30.480 a new twenty five percent minimum tax on billionaires. President 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:34.000 Biden pitched the proposal during a stop in Goffstown, New Hampshire. 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:36.160 Now it's time to go further and give medicare the 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:38.920 power to negotiate lower prices or even more drugs over 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:39.920 the next decade. 0:03:40.160 --> 0:03:40.520 Folks. 0:03:40.560 --> 0:03:43.480 If we're able to do that will not only save lives, 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:46.960 We're going to save taxpayers and other estimated two hundred 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:47.760 billion dollars. 0:03:47.960 --> 0:03:50.680 The President Biden's budget has little to no chance of 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:53.880 passing Congress, but he hopes it'll get voters backing before 0:03:53.880 --> 0:03:55.520 the November election. 0:03:56.200 --> 0:03:58.440 Well on Capitol Hill, Nathan and bill that would force 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:01.520 a sale of TikTok Is Steam in the House. The 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:05.520 legislation with block app stores and internet service providers from 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:08.800 offering the video sharing app unless it's Chinese owner by 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:12.680 Dance sells it within six months. Democratic Congressman Jamie Raskin 0:04:12.760 --> 0:04:14.920 says it's a matter of national security. 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:20.720 Our freedom of speech does not depend on authoritarian government's 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:22.479 having access to our private data. 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:25.680 The former president Donald Trump is suggesting he no longer 0:04:25.760 --> 0:04:29.800 supports banning TikTok. In an interview with CNBC, he said 0:04:29.880 --> 0:04:32.240 Facebook is the real threat and a lot of kids 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:34.800 would go crazy, in his words, without TikTok. 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:37.359 The bill comes up for a vote in the House tomorrow. 0:04:37.560 --> 0:04:40.840 In health News, Medicare may soon be required to cover 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:45.000 the blockbuster weight loss drug Wigovy for heart disease patients 0:04:45.040 --> 0:04:48.240 with obesity. That story from Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger. 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:52.320 Medicare, the federal health insurance program for the elderly and 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:55.599 some people on long term disability, does not currently cover 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:59.040 weight loss drugs, but after the FDA said with Goovy 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:02.839 could be used to helped prevent life threatening cardiovascular events, 0:05:03.080 --> 0:05:06.360 it now raises the question of whether Medicare prescription drug 0:05:06.400 --> 0:05:08.880 programs will have to cover it for patients with a 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:12.520 history of heart disease. A spokesperson tells us the Centers 0:05:12.560 --> 0:05:16.480 for Medicare and Medicaid Services is reviewing the FDA's action 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:19.080 to expand the use of we go Vy to reduce 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:22.920 the risk of cardiovascular death, heart attack, and stroke in 0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:27.760 adults with cardiovascular disease and either obesity or overweight. The 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:31.039 popular weight loss drug, which has helped millions of American 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:35.320 shed pounds, was given an expanded label by US regulators 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:38.840 last week. Jeff Bellinger, Bloomberg Radio, all. 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:40.800 Right, Jeff, thanks for staying in the medical field. One 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:43.920 of the biggest movers today is at Katia Pharmaceuticals AT 0:05:43.920 --> 0:05:46.800 stock down eighteen percent in early trading. One of the 0:05:46.800 --> 0:05:49.479 company's drugs failed to meet goals of a late stage 0:05:49.560 --> 0:05:52.039 trial in a trial for schizophrenia. 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:54.200 On the flip side, Care and shares of Oracle are 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:57.880 surging thirteen and a half percent after reporting strong sales 0:05:58.080 --> 0:06:01.560 with growth in its closely watched cloud computing business were 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:03.320 on that from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. 0:06:03.480 --> 0:06:07.479 Cloud revenue jump twenty five percent to five point one 0:06:07.520 --> 0:06:10.960 billion dollars in the period that ended in February. That 0:06:11.160 --> 0:06:14.840 surpassed Wall Street's five point zero six billion dollar estimate. 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:17.920 Of that, one point eight billion came from renting out 0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:21.320 computing power and storage over the Internet, on three point 0:06:21.400 --> 0:06:25.400 three billion from applications The Austin based company known for 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:29.920 its database software, is focused on expanding its cloud infrastructure 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:35.159 business to more forcefully compete with Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet's Google. 0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:38.600 In New York, Charlie Pellett Bloomberg. 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:39.840 Radio, All right, Charlie, thanks well. 0:06:39.880 --> 0:06:41.960 Pay raises for a pair of top of Bank of 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:45.960 America execs. Even after the CEO's pay was cut, the 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:48.919 bank disclosed pay increases of more than ten percent for 0:06:49.000 --> 0:06:52.440 two of its highest ranking executives. Chief Financial Officer Alistair 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:56.479 Borthwick and Jim Demare headed the bank's Global Markets division. 0:06:56.760 --> 0:06:59.839 The pay boosts come a month after reporting CEO Brian 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:03.440 when ahance compensation was cut in twenty twenty three. Borthwick's 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:06.520 total compensation climbed to twelve million dollars year, while Jim 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:13.240 Damari saw his pay rise to twenty one million. Time 0:07:13.280 --> 0:07:14.760 now for a look at some of the other stories 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:16.800 making news in New York and around the world. For that, 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:19.720 we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning. 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:22.920 Good morning herein the Israeli military says about one hundred 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:27.679 projectiles were launched from Lebanon into Israel today. It comes 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:30.800 after Palestinians and Gaza began fasting for the holy month 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:34.160 of Ramadan. There were no immediate reports of injuries or 0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:37.720 damage following the strikes, which appeared to be in response 0:07:37.760 --> 0:07:41.440 to Israeli airstrikes deep inside Lebanon. On Monday, you Win 0:07:41.560 --> 0:07:46.560 Secretary General Antonio Guterres called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. 0:07:46.920 --> 0:07:49.520 Goud Terra says, the eyes of the world and history 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:50.120 are watching. 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:53.800 We have witness months after months of civilian killing and 0:07:53.880 --> 0:07:57.600 destruction at the level that is unprecedented in all my 0:07:57.760 --> 0:08:02.800 years as Secretary General. Meanwhile, life saving relief for Palestinians 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:06.840 in Gaza is coming in trickles, if it comes at all. 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:11.280 The uns Antonio Guterre says, hunger and the humanitarian crisis 0:08:11.280 --> 0:08:16.480 are worsening across Gozam. The Republican National Committee just fired 0:08:16.520 --> 0:08:20.960 more than sixty saffers yesterday, just days after Donald Trump, 0:08:21.000 --> 0:08:26.280 the party's presumptive nominee, handpicked the organization's leadership. According to 0:08:26.320 --> 0:08:30.440 people familiar with the matter, Chris Lasovita, senior Trump aid, 0:08:30.840 --> 0:08:35.319 is splitting time between advising the presidential campaign and as 0:08:35.360 --> 0:08:39.679 the committee's chief operating officer. On Friday, the RNC voted 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:44.079 to install North Carolina Republican Committee chair Michael Watley and 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:48.120 the ex president's daughter in law, Laura Trump as co chairs. 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:52.120 Joe Biden and Donald Trump hope to clinch their party's 0:08:52.200 --> 0:08:57.439 presidential nominations with dominant victories in state primaries. Today. Primary 0:08:57.480 --> 0:09:01.800 contest will be held in Georgia, Washington State, Mississippi, and Hawaii. 0:09:02.400 --> 0:09:04.959 In what may be a major step towards the end 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:08.080 of the violence in Haiti, the nation's acting Prime Minister 0:09:08.200 --> 0:09:12.400 will resign. The Caribbean Community Organization announced late last night 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:15.839 that Ariel Henry will step down once an interim leader 0:09:15.880 --> 0:09:20.760 has been named. Ginese President Irfan Ali made the announcement 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:22.120 at a conference in Jamaica. 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:27.600 We acknowledge the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henri upon 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:32.600 the establishment of a transitional Presidential Council and the naming 0:09:32.720 --> 0:09:34.120 of an interim Prime Minister. 0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:37.160 This comes amid a surge of gang violence that has 0:09:37.160 --> 0:09:40.800 pushed the country to the brink of anarchy. Remember the 0:09:40.960 --> 0:09:43.920 Brooklyn preacher who was robbed of a million dollars of 0:09:44.000 --> 0:09:47.760 jewelry during a church service. Now Lamar Miller whiteh had 0:09:47.960 --> 0:09:51.680 known for his flashy lifestyle, was found guilty in federal 0:09:51.760 --> 0:09:55.880 court in Manhattan of wire fraud, attempted extortion, and lying 0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:59.160 to the FBI Global News twenty four hours a day 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:01.760 and whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News Now. 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:04.120 I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg Karen. 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:05.280 All right, Michael, thank you. 0:10:05.280 --> 0:10:05.439 Well. 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:07.480 We do bring a news throughout the day here on 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:09.880 Bloomberg Radio. But now you can get the latest news 0:10:09.920 --> 0:10:13.679 on demand whenever you want it. Just subscribe to Bloomberg 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:16.319 News Now to get the latest headlines read at the 0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:19.400 click of a button. Get informed on your schedule. You 0:10:19.440 --> 0:10:22.640 can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on the 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:26.640 Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com, plus apples, Spotify, and 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:34.120 anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now for the 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:37.040 Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you by Tri State OUDI. 0:10:37.120 --> 0:10:39.440 For that, we bring in John stash Hour, John. 0:10:39.400 --> 0:10:40.120 Okay, Kearn. 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:43.240 A flurry of NFL off season activity, with the Giants 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:46.920 adding four players all after the news that Saquon Barkley 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:50.120 was leaving, not a surprise since he was a free agent, 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:52.000 but it is a bit of a sting to Giants 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:55.280 fans that he's going to their division rival Philadelphia Eagles 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:57.240 got more money from Philly than the Giants are willing 0:10:57.240 --> 0:10:59.720 to give him just under sixteen million a year, second 0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:02.000 most thankver for a running back. The Giants will replace 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:05.719 Barkley with Devin Singletary. Brian Dabole knows him from his 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:09.160 time in Buffalo. Last season in Houston, Singletary had over 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:11.560 one thousand yards from scrimmage. Help coming to the giants 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:15.120 much beligned offensive line. They signed guard John Runyon from 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:18.400 Green Bay, tackled Jermaine lu Muner from the Raiders, and 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:21.120 the Giants have added a big time pass rusher, Brian 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:24.120 Burns was a Pro bowler with Carolina. Giants sent two 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:26.920 draft picks with the Panthers to get Burns. They quickly 0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:29.120 locked him up with a one hundred and fifty million 0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:31.480 dollar contract. As for the Jets, they signed guard John 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:34.839 Simpson from the Ravens, defensive lineman Javon Kinlow from the 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:37.719 forty nine ers, and unlike last year, the Jets now 0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:41.640 have a dependable backup quarterback, signing veteran Tyrod Taylor, who 0:11:41.720 --> 0:11:44.319 was most recently a Giant. The Falcons have their QB 0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:47.520 signing Kirk Cousins. Four years one hundred and eighty million. 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:50.360 If he makes all that, Cousins will have earned over 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:53.839 four hundred million dollars in his career. Today is Darryl 0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:57.680 Strawberry's sixty second birthday. He's in a hospital in Saint Louis, 0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:00.440 the ex met and Yankee slugger revealed, but he just 0:12:00.440 --> 0:12:02.559 suffered a heart attack, but set in his post it 0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:05.240 all was well. The Yankees, holding their breath should learn 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:08.040 today the results of the Mrion Garrett Cole's elbow the 0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:11.199 aceh picture of feeling discomfort at the Garden. Rangers beat 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:13.160 the Devils three to one, the Islanders six game win 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:16.480 streak and did shut out in LA three nothing. Bruins 0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:19.760 and Capitals both lost Eelphics and Warriors one. 0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:23.440 John Stashawa Bloomberg Sports Karen and Nathan Okay, John. Thanks, 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:26.840 Let's get more now on the latest economic forecast from 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:30.880 JP Morgan Chase CEO. Jamie Diamond, the Wall Street giant 0:12:30.920 --> 0:12:34.040 who once warned an economic hurricane was coming for the US, 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:35.760 now says he would not take the risk of a 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:38.920 recession off the table just yet, though he says that 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:40.680 doesn't mean the FED should jump the gun when it 0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:42.520 comes to cutting interest rates. For more on this, we're 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:46.240 joined by Bloomberg's Kritty Gupta. So Critty maybe a little 0:12:46.280 --> 0:12:50.120 bit of tempering here of the economic warning signs, but 0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:52.640 Jamie Diamond is still sounding a bit of an alarm, 0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:53.840 a little. 0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:56.280 Bit of an alarm, but not something that's that counter 0:12:56.400 --> 0:12:59.160 two consensus. Look, he does say in this interview that 0:12:59.280 --> 0:13:02.320 seventy to eighty percent of excuse me, I say markets 0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:04.760 are pricing in a seventy eighty percent chance of a 0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:07.400 soft landing, which basically means everything is going to go find. 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:10.320 He even says that the worst case scenario, it looks like, 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:13.079 would just be stagflation, which even that is better than 0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:16.440 a recession. That being said, he's really pointing to the 0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:19.240 idea of the Fed cannot jump the gun when it 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:21.040 comes to cutting interest rates, and he says, look, you're 0:13:21.040 --> 0:13:23.840 still dealing with very strong employment numbers, very strong wages 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:26.640 that are continuing to go up. He actually says the 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:29.880 credibility is the bigger worry here, that the Fed's credibility. 0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:31.079 They have a lot going. 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:32.920 For them right now, they've been right in a lot 0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:37.359 of ways, but they've also can't really kind of accelerate 0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:39.440 because of those market pressures, and that's kind of what 0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:42.240 he's pointing to. He's still, i mean saying, look, the 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:44.480 consumer is still very strong, which is why he's a 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:47.840 stagnation is a more likely scenario than recession, but he says, 0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:49.840 still pointing out that it's not completely off the table, 0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:52.240 which again, Nathan, not out of the ordinary. 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:56.000 Yeah, well, I mean, but more recently Critty, the JP 0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:58.720 Morgan's CEO, had been sounding a little bit more positive 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:02.120 about the market. Get outlook, what's behind this view that 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:05.360 things might be changing just a little bit when it 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:07.920 comes to the outlook for markets. 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:09.840 Well, I think it's a similar outlook that a lot 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:12.400 of the economists and strategist we speak to have been saying, 0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:14.520 which is that this is looking a little too good 0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:17.640 to be true in that, yes, there is consumer resilience. 0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:20.000 And Jamie Diamond, even Brian moynihan over at Bank of 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:23.200 America have both been some pretty strong advocates for the 0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:25.320 US consumer and have been right in that it's the 0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:27.560 US consumer that's strong, whereas if you look at Europe 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:29.680 or Asia, that's where we're actually seeing a lot of 0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:32.240 the weakness. The concern is that there is such a 0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:34.320 thing as too strong, as my mom would say, and 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:36.160 I would never admit this to her. She's a good thing, 0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:39.200 she's still asleep. Too much of a good thing is 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:41.640 a bad thing, and everything in moderation. I think that's 0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:43.480 kind of the point that Jamie Diamond is getting to, 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:46.080 Whereas that if you're talking about that kind of strong 0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:49.720 consumer that continues to be strong, well, that is inflationary 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:53.360 and at its worst stagflationary, which means that ultimately things 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:56.120 could get stuck at a point where you're only growing 0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:59.000 so much, and in the long term that is actually 0:14:59.000 --> 0:14:59.840 a negative thing. 0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:00.880 History has shown. 0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:02.960 Yeah, And one thing that stood out to me from 0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:06.120 Jamie Diamond's comments to this summit is that we should 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:09.560 take post COVID economic data with a grain of salt. 0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:12.920 I guess that speaks to this idea of fed caution 0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:14.520 fed credibility as well. 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:20.160 It does look fed caution fed credibility are two different 0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:24.000 things here, because the reason that the Federal Reserve might 0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:26.120 actually be thinking of kind of front running these cuts, 0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:28.280 which by the way, all indications point to June in 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:30.720 terms of kind of the pushback that Chair Powell has 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:32.920 received and could even push it back further. But a 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:35.040 lot of the concerns here is that the markets are 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:38.240 ultimately driving the inflationary story. And Nathan, I'm going to 0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:40.160 nerd out for a second. Bear with me, hold your 0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:43.520 breath if you can. But basically, you're seeing so much 0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:45.520 money on the front end of the curve that the 0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:48.360 direct impact into the economy from the markets is just 0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:51.080 bigger than it usually is. Because of the way the 0:15:51.120 --> 0:15:53.440 markets are functioning on the front end, they're not diving 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:55.960 into ten years or thirty years for the bond market. 0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:58.240 And that's the concern for the Federal Reserve because we 0:15:58.280 --> 0:16:00.200 talk a lot about well, they could cut rate, then 0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:03.200 the economy will feel that rate cut twelve to eighteen 0:16:03.240 --> 0:16:05.320 months down the road. That's why the lag is so important. 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:08.000 But what happens if you're starting to see the markets 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:09.720 a little bit more in control. There was a FED 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:13.240 survey out yesterday that suggested that people are expecting inflation 0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:17.040 expectations higher that perhaps even in today's CPI report you 0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:19.760 could see an uptick in inflation for the second time 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:22.440 in a row. What does the market do when you 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:24.360 see that kind of data and do that Does that 0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:26.720 have a more direct impact on the economy than what 0:16:26.760 --> 0:16:29.000 the Federal Reserve decides to do in a couple months time. 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:34.960 This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:38.680 the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:41.560 Look for us on your podcast feed at six am 0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:45.360 Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:46.560 get your podcasts. 0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:49.400 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:16:49.440 --> 0:16:52.120 am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 0:16:52.120 --> 0:16:54.920 in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, 0:16:55.040 --> 0:16:58.120 Bloomberg one oh six' one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine 0:16:58.280 --> 0:16:59.680 sixty in San Francisco. 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:03.200 Our flagship New York station is also available on your 0:17:03.280 --> 0:17:08.719 Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:12.159 Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, SERRIUSXM, 0:17:12.280 --> 0:17:16.520 the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager. 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:17.480 And I'm Karen Moscow. 0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:20.439 Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you 0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:23.760 need to start your day, right here on Bloomberg Daybreak