700: Mailbag 10/28/22

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zachera j J. Zacherson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyeson in. This is episode seven hundred of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Before getting in the questions, this week, I want to remind you about FanDuel Faceoff. Fandel Faceoff is where you compete in quick, fun games against other real people for real cash. It has all sorts of games that you're familiar with, like homerun Derby, Wheel of Fortune, puzzle and strategy games, and there's more on the way. Contests are action packed and last between two to five minutes, so you can play on your couch, waiting in line, during a commercial break, wherever, and on your schedule. Plus, you can practice for free anytime, whether it's head to head, multiplayer or larger tournaments. Fandel face Off has something for you. Plus, in most contests, you'll be matched against players of similar skill level. She never totally overmatched even as a beginner. Face Off is also tied to your FanDuel accountant wallet, so you can easily use your daily fantasy funds or sportsbook winnings in the app. Visitfandle dot com slash Faceoff or download the fandle Faceoff app in the Apple App Store today to get in the game. Agent location restrictions apply. Voidware prohibited seefandle dot Com slash Faceoff hyphen terms for terms and conditions. The first question this week is from Patreon. It's from Malcolm. It says, how should we be structuring our bench with six bench spots at this point in the season, handcuffs, flyers, stashes, second defenses, and kickers. So I say this all the time on the show, but your bench is an extension of your starting lineup. So if you're good at running back and you're not good at wide receiver, then you may want to roster more wide receivers on your bench to take that one step further. Though, since the question is about this time of year, it depends. It depends on how good your actual team is. Like I got a question from someone on Discord this week asking if they should roster Alexander Madison or Khalil Herbert when Dalvincook is on their roster, and my answer was that it depends on if your team good or not. If you're at seven to zero, maybe six and one and you have Dalvin Cook, you should probably lean Alexander Madison. It's a floor play. If you're a two or a three win team, you might want a roster Herbert because in both cases, an injury needs to happen more than likely in order for those players to be true difference makers in fantasy. Now, I think Herbert has a much better shot to overtake his backfield naturally, I've talked about that for like a year now, but in terms of probable outcomes, there's going to be a split backfield in Chicago, and for Madison, he's not very usable without Dalvin Cook getting hurt. So if there's an injury to Montgomery and not Dalvin Cook, then you now have Herbert and Dalvin Cook. It's an upside play for that reason. Obviously there's downside though, because Cook could get hurt and Montgomery may not. But that's why you're making that move on a team that's not doing so hot. If you're in great shape, just have the insurance policy. Just roster Alexander Manison. I do start adding a lot more handcuffs this time of year in general, because running mass can see a much faster increase in value than wide receivers can with an injury, and we have a pretty good idea at this point about whether or not certain wide receivers are going to break out. And if I'm rostering multiple defenses, I'm doing it because my league is deep. In a normal ten or twelve team league with five or six bench spots, I'm rarely rostering multiple defenses. There's too much weekly variance to do that. Later in the season when a playoff spot is locked up, or if I'm in the playoffs, that's a different story. So that's the general gist. It's hard to answer this one super directly because every league is just totally different. But this is not just league dependent. How you manage your bench is also individual team dependent. This next question is from at P two w Fantasy and it says am and Ross Saint Brown had a massive impact on the fantasy playoffs last season. Who from this rookie class do you feel can have that sort of impact for this season? So other people Chime didn't responded to this one on Twitter with answers like Kenneth Walker and Chris A. Lave. I think we already know that a Lave and Walker are going to help you win a fantasy title as long as they're healthy. The reason, Amen Ross Saint Brown was so insane last year was not only because his production was crazy, but it also sort of came from nowhere, at least from the perspective that it's not like he was doing that all year. So we're talking about second half breakouts here, not first half ones. Not Kenneth Walker and Chris A. Lave. Clearly, I don't expect anyone to do what Saint Brown did, but I do have three candidates who I do think are interesting. The first is Wandel Robinson. He's seeing an insane target per route run rate right now, and he's playing in an offense that lacks alternatives a pass catcher, and like Saint Brown, Wandel Robinson's a slot guy. Robinson looked good in my prospect model too. He had an amazing production profile, and he ended up with a ninety second percentile score in a really good Draft Capital delta. Saint Brown was drafted later than when Robinson was, so his prospect score was in the seventy third percentile, but he had a nice positive draft capital delta as well. And for the record, Draft Capital Delta tells me that my model liked a player more than where he was drafted. Now, Wandell was someone I more subjectively bumped down in my rankings because of size concerns, but he's still someone my model really liked something that I really like, So he definitely makes sense for this answer. One very low key one could be Christian Watson. I actually think Watson's a decent stash right now. If he's out there, go ahead. And Adam Aaron Rodgers came out and he said that they needed some playing time changes offensively, and Romeo Dobbs has not been good the last couple of weeks. At the time of this recording, Watson's had some limited practices. He could be back soon. Now. With that being said, my prospect model viewed Watson as overvalued. He was still an eighty third percentile wide receiver given where he was drafted, but he had a bad production profile overall, and he wasn't coming from a big program. He's athletically gifted, though sometimes that translates that's the upside we won. And then my final answer to this is Khalil Shakir. If he takes the slot role for Buffalo, he could really take off. I've talked about him enough on this show over the last month. You generally know how I feel about Shakir, But as you know, my model loved him, and one of his comps in that model was Cooper Cup. Some of his other comps were not nearly as strong, but it's always going to see a name like that on the list. So those are my second half rookie breakout candidates. Players sort of coming from nowhere. Wandel Robinson, Christian Watson, Khalil Shakir. This best question from Patreon. It's from Chase. It says, hey, O, what's your take on the running back dead zone? Halfway through the Fantasy regular season? Jacobs is crushing and he didn't have any attributes. Dead zone guys typically have thanks for all you do now. I try not to spend a ton of time reflecting on draft strategy in season because it doesn't really do us a ton of good. I want you guys to win Fantasy championships. Saying that something went right or something went wrong before Week eight it really doesn't help with that unless there's something actionable to take from it, and in this case, I don't think there really is. I will absolutely break all of this down in detail after the season is over, whether it's this or the quarterback position, or how to approach a tight end position, So please know that's coming. I just have gotten a few questions about the dead Zone over the last week or two in particular, so I figured i'd give this a quick answer. I know a lot of people will point to Josh Jacobs or Breishall or Travis Etn and they'll say, this is why the running Back dead Zone is stupid. But I think what's really important to remember is that the dead Zone is about probability, not certainty. We see guys emerge from the dead Zone all the time. This isn't a full proof thing, and anyone's selling it that way, they're wrong. And Breshall and Travis Etn, for the record, they were two targets of mine this year from the Dead Zone, partially because of episode six hundred and forty three on beating the running Back dead Zone. They fit the profile of players who tend to break free, and yeah, Josh Jacobs didn't really fit that profile. But this isn't something that that just never happens. Not only that, but we can't just look at Josh Jacobs and say, see this is why we shouldn't listen to you guys about the running back dead zone. Cam Akers has busted big time, David Montgomery hasn't been amazing, James Connor, Ezekiel Elliott, Elijah Mitchell. I know Elijah Mitchell's had that injury, but now he's got Christian McCaffrey to deal with. JK. Dobbins. AJ Dillon was sort of on the fringe. I mean, there are plenty of guys from that area of the draft who've been very bad. I think this just sort of goes back to what I talked about last week about negativity bias. It's easy to latch onto Josh Jacobs. There have been a lot of bad players from the dead zone this year. Now I'll do a more comprehensive breakdown in next year's draft guide. One hundred percent, but my take is at the running back dead zone, it might be slightly better than previous years, but it's still been pretty bad. And keep in mind, this is only me looking at running back performance from the dead zone. I didn't dig into the other positions here. That's just as important because this is about opportunity cost just as much as it's about the running backs. Busting this. That's questions from Patreon. It's from Steven. It says, which wide receiver do you think will have the second most targets for the Chargers for the next four to six weeks? And this has to do with Mike Williams being hurt, So I think that Josh Palmer should be added. I'm not sure Palmer is going to be amazingly effective, and he wasn't that great of a prospect at least given the way that I prospect wide receivers. But he at least has four games where he averaged about a twenty percent target share per game across those four, so I think he would be the guy who has to step up and play the perimeter. My problem with DeAndre Carter, for example, is that he fit perfectly with Palmer and Mike Williams playing, but he doesn't fit as well with Keenan Allen being back because DeAndre Carter's been a slot guy and Keenan Allen plays a lot in a slot. So that's why I think Palmer's just the safer option overall. This that's questions from at the Atomic Gator. It says, are Target's still an earned stack considering the lackluster performances of Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Elijah Moore, and Brandon Cooks. We know these guys are good, but they're just not part of their team's plans. Yes, targets are still earned. Kyle Pitts and Drake London are falling victim to an offensive scheme that just doesn't throw the ball a whole lot. We can say, well, if they were good, then they'd want to throw the ball a little bit more, but I'm not sure that's necessarily the case. They clearly just don't trust Marcus Mariota. This is why I look at target shares and the target share numbers for those two players in particular, they've been great. Pits Is at a twenty seven percent target share per game rate, London's at thirty percent, and that London number includes a game last week where he was under ten percent. Targets are definitely an earned statistic. We can point out guys who are underperforming, but number one, they could just be going through a tough stretch. It's only been seven weeks. Number two, their scheme and situation could be failing them. And number three, by pinpointing the quote good players who are underperforming. You're ignoring all the good players who are actually performing. It's not like we have objectively bad wide receivers ranking really high in target share. Good players sometimes play poorly, and sometimes we think someone's good and maybe they're not. We have to remember that. It doesn't make the concept of targets being earned though wrong. The overall idea here is so simple. Good players see volume at running back. Two. It's just easier for good wide receivers to see those looks because it's a little less of a coaching decision than it is at running back. This next question is from at Saxton Underscore Beard, and it says, when does a trade go past a bad trade into collusion territory when you actually have proof that collusion exists. Ninety nine percent of trades, maybe even more, should not be vetoed. If there's a lopsided trade in your league, if you know factually there was no collusion with that trade, do not veto the trade. And there are a ton of reasons that I feel strongly about this. Number one, Judging a trade is subjective. What happens if someone really wants to trade Josh Jacobs for David Montgomery. Clearly Josh Jacobs is the better fantasy asset. So you go and you say, Josh Jacobs is so much better, I'm gonna veto this trade. But what if Jacob gets hurt that weekend. All of a sudden, the person who is getting David Montgomery no longer has a running back. Just because a group of people viewed that that trade was bad, that's not that fair. And yeah, injuries happen. I understand that you're probably sitting there thinking just because an injury happened didn't make the trade any better. And you all know that I'm a process oriented analyst, that's what I care about most. But the result does matter for a trade. You can't just say, oh, well, the process was right to veto this, because it's actually impacting someone else's team, not yours. If you have an issue with lopsided trades going down in your league, maybe you should look at who's in your league and why those lopsided trades are going down in the first place. If there's a huge discrepancy in fantasy manager ability, then you can number one leave the league, Number two change that for future seasons, or number three live with it because you want to play fantasy football with your buddies, and this is the baggage that comes along with that. Vetoing trades is generally ridiculous. We're adults playing a game. Let adults make their own decisions. If they're making decisions and doing it from the lens of making the best choice for their team and not someone else's, then you should not veto If there's clear collusion. If it's obvious after talking to people that they're colluding, then sure, veto away you have bigger problems to deal with. Also, is this type of thing even happening that frequently? Like I see what I think are lopsided trades all the time in my leagues. I get that part, But is collusion this wide spread in fantasy leagues? And if it's happening, ask yourself why, Like what kind of adults are playing in a fantasy league and stacking one team to cheat? What are we nine years old? If that's happening at all in your leagues, you gotta find a new league. But my general stance is to let adults make decisions about their fantasy teams. You may not like a trade that went down, but that doesn't mean that that's how it's gonna play out your opinions. My opinions, they're not facts. I get things wrong. You get things wrong, and the person making that lopside to trade, the person who seems to not be benefiting, they may end up being right when it's all said and done. So my more direct answer to this question, a trade will never just naturally fall into collusion territory. If it's super lopsided. Collusion needs proof. And if you think your league mates are frequently lying about collusion, like you're going to them and they're saying no, no, we're not colluding when they actually are. If that's happening frequently in your league, you gotta get out. The last question this week is from at Guysies and says question for this week's mailbag. I just realized your seven hundredth show would be a mailbag. So my question is is there a particular show that is your favorite from all that you have done? And if so, why? Love the great content and thank you for all you do. I appreciate it. So it is episode seven hundred. I honestly can't believe it. You guys have put up with me for seven hundred episodes. You've heard the airhorn seven hundred times at least some of you. But one of the things that I think is important as an analyst is being open minded, changing your mind with new information. Your environment evolves, things change. How you felt five ten years ago doesn't mean you have to feel that way today. That goes for anything in life. When I started my career as a fantasy football analyst, and yes it's hilarious that is my career, but I got my start by launching an ebook called The Late Round Quarterback. I wanted to start a revolution. I wanted people to realize that back in twenty eleven twenty twelve, people weren't valuing the quarterback position properly. Slowly, but surely we saw more and more people latch onto the idea quarterback. Average draft position shifted, it changed. But in May of twenty twenty, I took a step back while doing my yearly off season analysis. I analyzed Lamar Jackson's MVP season where he broke out as a late round quarterback, and I came to the realization that the strategy was no longer the same. It was different. The very thing I built my career off of was not the same. So I did a study and I podcasted about it. That podcast episode number was three hundred and seventy seven, and I thought it would be cool to play a clip from that episode. It's a clip that sort of summarizes why I'm proud of that particular study, why I think it captures what I'm trying to do as an analyst. My goal is to give you guys the best information possible, period. I don't want to be right or wrong. I just want to be useful, and to be useful you have to be open minded, and I think that's what this clip really represents. So I'll close out the show right now before playing that clip. Thanks for listening, subscribe to the show, check out Lateround dot com. You know what to do. Hopefully you enjoy listening back on this clip as much as I did. I think there's an argument now that getting more of that second tier a middle round quarterback makes a lot of sense. Historically, drafting a middle round quarterback has been a waste of time. The average points scored among quarterbacks ranked five through ten in average draft position has actually been lower than the average points scored by the QB twelve through the QB fifteen. Over the last nine years, about what that means. Your late round quarterbacks on average have actually outproduced middle round quarterbacks over the last decade. But the market is getting smarter. Years ago, given what Ryan Tannehill accomplished last year, we would have seen Tannehill be a top five quarterback in ADP this season, but instead he's a mid range QB two because people are understanding regression more. They understand how Tannehill accumulated points and then it wasn't totally sustainable. The market is also understanding the importance of rushing at the quarterback position. Years and years ago, on Number fire Sharp Football Analysis is Rich Reebar wrote an article and claimed that rushing quarterbacks were the Konami code of fantasy football. He wrote that article over a half decade ago, and people were just now really truly seeing that impact. Traditionally, we'd see a random great rushing season, or maybe a set of seasons if you're Cam Newton, but we wouldn't ever see the passing numbers to match the rushing ones at the quarterback position. Rushing numbers really strengthen a quarterback's fantasy total, but for that player to go over the top and be a Lamar Jackson type like we saw last year. He needs the passing element to his game too, And like I said, traditionally, it hasn't been there until now the NFL has changed. We've not only got Lamar Jackson giving us insane rushing numbers, but Jackson gave us those insane passing numbers last year too. And we've got a handful of quarterbacks who have that type of ceiling. Maybe not a Lamar Jackson twenty nineteen ceiling, but a QB one or a QB two ceiling. And that's really all you're looking for with a fantasy football quarterback to give you a significant advantage at the position. But think of the quarterback landscape and think of the players who have that dual rushing and passing upside. Lamar Jackson obviously comes to mind. Patrick Mahomes and his underrated rushing ability also comes to mind, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Deshaan Watson, maybe Josh Allen. Those are the guys who have that true diffiference making upside in fantasy football. The problem is that they're all being ranked that way for the first time in my years of doing fantasy football analysis. The market seems super efficient at the quarterback position. Of course, I have my favorite late round quarterback choices. Ryan Tannehill is someone who has that rushing upside to go along with the passing upside. He's someone that you can target late. But he's not as safe and interesting as someone like Kyler Murray. He doesn't have the same type of profile as Russell Wilson or Deshaun Watson. This is where the late round quarterback strategy has gotten really, really interesting. Instead of us entering our draft rooms knowing that we'd be getting someone late, knowing that we could just draft loads and loads of running backs and wide receivers early to build depth and increase our chances of hitting on those players, we may have to start thinking differently. And why not think differently? Why not in leagues where a lot of fantasy managers are waiting on their quarterback, why not take one in the middle rounds? Because let me reveal something that a lot lot of you may not know. When I wrote the late round Quarterback ebook back in twenty eleven and twenty twelve, I didn't write the book saying to draft a quarterback in round twelve or round thirteen, or even round eleven late at that time was round eight. It was where opportunity cost clearly was not significant. The difference between a round eight pick and a round eleven pick is not that significant, you guys. Taking on an opportunity cost in the eighth round is not a whole lot different than doing the same in the eleventh. And you know what's interesting. Back in twenty eleven, the QB twelve for the last hypothetical starter in your twelve team league, he was being drafted at pick eighty that's the middle of the seventh round. Last season, in twenty nineteen, Jamis Winston was the QB twelve. According to my fantasy league's ADP. He was falling off draft boards at pick one hundred and eight, pick eighty, where the QB twelve was drafted back in twenty eleven. Pick eighty was where we saw the QB six last year. If opportunity cost wasn't significant in round seven or round eight and twenty twelve when I published the late round quarterback, then why would it be significant in round seven or round eight today? Sure, the quarterback position is deeper. I'm not arguing that. I'm arguing the opposite end. Taking on a middle round quarterback hasn't been profitable in the past, but it also hasn't been all that costly. It just hasn't mattered. But if we're cognizant to the fact that the market is getting a little bit sharper, and that the market is now paying more attention to mobile quarterbacks with passing upside, then we may want to think about our own philosophy shifting