Okay, but can birds predict the weather?

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Everyone has an uncle or
something who had a joint replaced,

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right? And complains of joint
pain when the storms get bad, right?

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Or the pressure changes.

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December 26, 2004. An undersea
earthquake triggers the Indian Ocean

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tsunami. But along much of the
coast, people don't feel a thing.

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In Yala national park, some
elephants and other large animals

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start moving inland before the
waves arrive. Afterward, there were

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surprisingly few large animal
deaths compared to the devastation

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nearby. Elsewhere, there are
smaller, stranger moments. In Phuket,

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people later recall dogs
refusing to walk along the coast.

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Birds abandoned the shore.
Nothing dramatic enough to trigger

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an alarm at the time. Just
off. It's not a one off. Before the

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1975 Hai Chung earthquake,
reports of unusual animal behavior

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alongside smaller foreshocks
helped prompt an evacuation. And

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before the 2009 L' Aquila
earthquake, researchers observed

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toads abandoning a breeding
site days in advance. You don't have

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to go to a tsunami or
earthquake to hear this kind of story,

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though. Cattle lying down in a
field is supposed to mean rain is

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coming. Frogs going quiet at
dusk is supposed to mean a shift

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in the weather. Bees
disappearing into the hive in the

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middle of the afternoon. A
barometer falling without anyone

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reading it. We've all heard
some of these, maybe from our grandparents.

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And I think a lot of us, when
we hear this kind of folklore, do

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the modern adult thing where
we shrug and say cute, but probably

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nothing. But pay attention to
birds for long enough and a pattern

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actually does start to show
up. We name birds after this. The

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yellow billed cuckoo, for
example. A long tailed skulker that

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almost nobody sees has earned
the nickname rain crow across the

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American Midwest and South.
Some people call it the storm crow.

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Same bird, two folk names,
both pointing at the same observation.

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This cuckoo has a habit of
calling on hot, humid afternoons

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just before a thunderstorm
rolls in. It will keep calling through

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the rain. People got tired of
saying yellow billed cuckoo, looked

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at what the bird was actually
doing and nicknamed it after the

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weather. That's not nothing.
That's centuries of careful watching.

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The question is whether the
bird is actually doing anything weather

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related or whether we just
enjoy the story. Which brings us

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to the topic of today's
episode. Okay, but can birds predict

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the weather? To dive into
this, we'll talk with Dr. Gunnar

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Kramer, an assistant professor
in the Department of Natural Resource

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Ecology and Management at Iowa
State University. Gunner studies

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migration ecology, which means
he spends a lot of time trying to

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figure out where small
songbirds go when nobody is watching,

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how they decide when to leave
and what cues they're picking up

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out of an environment that, to
a human standing in the same field,

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looks completely unremarkable.
After the break, Gunner walks us

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through what tiny songbirds
are actually doing when they decide

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to launch themselves across
500 miles of open ocean with no place

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to land. And the moment in his
career when one of his birds appeared

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to do something that if you
squint at it from a certain angle,

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looks an awful lot like a
prediction. Stay tuned. All right,

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welcome back, everyone. I'm
really excited to have Gunner with

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us today to talk all about
whether birds can predict the weather.

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Thanks for joining us, Gunnar.

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Thanks, Scott. Happy to be here.

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Yeah, I thought we could start
off. You know, my grandma always

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told me these stories about
the way birds act in the context

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of the weather. And I think
for centuries, people have said,

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you know, birds can really
actually predict the weather. So

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what's the folklore about that
actually getting right and what isn't

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correct about it? Yeah.

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You know, in ancient Greece,
folks like Aristotle recognized that

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the community of birds that he
was seeing around him changed seasonally.

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So swallows were there in the
summer, but absent during the winter.

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And there were new species of
birds that came in and kind of replaced

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those birds. And so, in an
effort to try to understand or describe

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what was happening, he
hypothesized that these birds either

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hibernated in lake beds or
maybe transformed into these other

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species or changed shapes or
something. Right. And so. And so

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we can think about. For a
long, long time, people have been

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using birds as kind of a
marker of seasonal time, of the change

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of the seasons. And so there's
even a line in the Iliad by Homer

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talking about cranes shrieking
down from the heavens as they flee

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to the world's end to avoid
the nasty winter weather, basically.

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And so for a long, long time,
people have been watching how migratory

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birds move without fully
understanding where they go or what's

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driving those decisions. And
it's actually not until relatively

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recently, with advancement of
modern technology, that we can actually

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start to track some of these
birds and disentangle some of the

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kind of the relationships
between birds and weather and seasonal

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migration.

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Yeah, those transmutation
ideas are interesting. I think that's

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why it's called the barnacle
goose, because they thought in the

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winter, the geese became
barnacles, and then in the summer,

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the barnacles turned back into
geese, which obviously we know is

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not right now. But you're
right that we can track birds better.

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And then I think we can move
away from just having anecdotal evidence

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that birds are in some way,
they're reacting to weather in a

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predictable way. Is saying
birds can predict the weather just

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incorrect or is it correct? We
just really don't. We still have

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more to figure out.

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I think they're not
necessarily predicting the weather

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is my sense and my view on it,
I think kind of spirals into this

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question of like, well, should
we just use birds instead of radar

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to predict these massive
storms or hurricanes or tornadoes?

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And the answer is really no.
Human. Humans are very, very good

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at forecasting weather and we
have really significant technology

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and knowledge in that realm.
What birds are doing instead of just

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predicting the weather is
they're highly adapted biological

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sensors. Basically they have
all of these abilities to sense the

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environment that's around them
and respond in ways that are going

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to be or have in the past been
adapted. They've evolved this capacity

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to react to inclement weather
instead of predict. What I really

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think they're doing is they're
responding and they're doing so in

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ways that are really quite
impressive to us humans who lack

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some of these same abilities.
Right. And so it looks really miraculous

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and impressive for this tiny,
maybe like a 9 gram warbler to choose

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the right date and time to,
for example, jump across the Gulf

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of Mexico or change behavior
in light of some major severe storm.

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But in reality, it's not that
they're rejecting. They're, they're

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sensing and responding to
changing conditions in real time.

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Everyone has an uncle or
something who had a joint replaced.

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Right. And complains of joint
pain when the storms get bad. Right.

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Or the pressure changes.
Right. And, and so, you know, there's,

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there's truth to some of this
as well in humans. It's just we don't

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have the same evolved sensors
that some of these birds have.

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I mean, to us it seems like a
prediction because we don't have

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the senses to detect subtle
pressure drops in the atmospheric

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pressure or the slight scent
that might be released because of

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reduced pressure or whatever.
Some of my friends get migraines

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when the pressure changes. And
so they know when that's coming well

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before I do because I'm lucky
enough not to have that happen. So,

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yeah, just better attuned at
detecting things. Well, in that sense

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then a lot of these migrants
that are coming up from Central and

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South America now are crossing
the Gulf of Mexico in kind of one

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flight, unless they happen to
land on a ship or something like

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that. How does weather factor
into that decision making for these

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birds in terms of whether they
just go like, when do they go for

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it, how do they know?

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So the idea and our ability to
understand the movements of these

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small songbirds across these
big migration barriers is relatively

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new. And we are still trying
to understand how they are sensing

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their environment and what
decisions they're making. But I did

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some research on golden wing
and blue winged warblers, a species

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that we're both very familiar
with. And we were just trying to

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understand where these birds
migrate. And we use these relatively

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rudimentary coarse tracking
devices called light level geolocators

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to track their movements. And
light level geolocators, just as

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a brief explanation.

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Explanation, that's how they
work, Gunner, because they are weird.

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They're very simple. They work
by recording the timing of sunrise

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and sunset. And based on those
two events and the length of the

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day, we can get a pretty good
estimate of geographic location because

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of the tilt of the earth and
the natural variation and day length

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that occurs because of that
tilt. And so it's the same way that

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sailors navigated before
compasses and gps. What we can see

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is very clear signals of shade
free periods that are atypical, except

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for when these birds are near
the Gulf and crossing the Gulf of

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Mexico. So what that means is
that these geolocators allow us to

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pick up on the day that these
birds jump across the Gulf. So Bermivora,

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golden wing and blue winged
warblers are like many other songbirds,

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they primarily migrate at
night. And so if you're thinking

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about spring migration, which
we're experiencing right now, there

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are probably birds across the
Gulf of Mexico right now, which is

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kind of crazy to think about.

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Just on their way, right?

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Yeah, yeah. That's a minimum
of 500 miles or around 800 kilometers

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I think, of a distance to
travel. And these are terrestrial

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birds, they cannot land in the
Gulf. Unless you mentioned earlier,

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if they're landing on a ship,
which does happen, but is relatively

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infrequent, you should not predict.

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That you're going to find a ship.

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Certainly you should not.
Yeah. And in evolutionary history,

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right, There were not many
ships for these.

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Fly by.

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You should just go. And so
they lift off from their departure

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site in Mexico or Central
America at night, and then they fly

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basically NonStop up to 18 to
24 hours until they reach the southern

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coast of the United States in
spring. And so this takes a long

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time. And so what we see in
the light data is just this like

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perfectly shade free period
with really clean sunrises and often

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sunsets. And it gives us this
window into when these birds are

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moving. And so we use those
data to try to understand what, what

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weather conditions or climate
conditions influence these departure

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decisions. Because picking the
wrong time to fly across will have

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really significant
consequences for a bird. Right?

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Yeah.

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There's again, like we said,
there's nowhere to land, there's

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nowhere to rest. And so if you
pick the wrong day and you hit a

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big storm out in the middle of
the Gulf of Mexico, you are going

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to be in a fight for your life
potentially. Right.

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Probably eaten by a shark.

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Yep, exactly. Which there,
there has been a lot of work where

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they've found a lot of
songbirds during migration in the

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stomachs of sharks. Which is
really proves the point, I guess,

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that these birds are flying
across the Gulf of Mexico or another

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line of evidence to support
that these birds are crossing. And

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many don't make it. But what
we find with Vermivora, these very

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small. They're 9 or 10 gram
birds, which is the same. I had to

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look it up. It's like three or
four pennies, if anyone knows what

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a penny is anymore.

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Because we've both had these
birds in our hands and I've never

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thought while I'm holding one
of them like, oh, it weighs like

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four pennies. So it's like.
It's a helpful thing to say, but

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also, like, doesn't compute
even when you hold the birds. I don't

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know. But I also don't ever
remember feeling the weight of a

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bird in my hand because
there's almost none. So I guess it

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makes sense. Yeah.

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Back in 2013, we were among a
small group of scientists who started

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deploying these tags on birds
that were 10 grams or less. And so

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these are most of your
warblers at the time. We were basically

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testing out this technology on
a small subset but of birds in a

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pilot study. And so we were
studying golden winged warblers in

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the Appalachian portion of
their breeding distribution in Tennessee.

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And we put these tags out. And
geolocators are archival. They're

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not like gps. They don't
transmit any data. So the vert has

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to accept the tag which rides
on its back like a little harness,

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a little backpack on a
harness. It has to survive the breeding

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season, survive fall
migration, survive the winter, survive

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spring migration, and then
come back to that same area where

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you marked it the year before
and be detected by you and captured

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by you in a. In a net. Right.
And before you can get that geolocator

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and download the data and
understand where that bird went.

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And so, so we deployed these
tags in 2013 and then we went back

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to Tennessee in 2014, the
spring of 2014. And we started looking

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for returning birds, and we
started to see some birds coming

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back, and some of them had
these geolocators. So we were very

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relieved. Seemed like these
birds carried these tags and it was

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all going to work. And then in
late April, just as most of the birds

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00:13:48,590 --> 00:13:52,150
were filtering back and
starting to establish territories,

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00:13:52,230 --> 00:13:55,430
we had actually caught a
couple of birds and removed geolocators

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00:13:55,430 --> 00:13:59,910
at that point. But this
gigantic tornadic storm system developed

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00:13:59,990 --> 00:14:05,270
in the central U.S. and it
started, like, churning its way towards

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Tennessee. And we had blue
skies. This is, again, this predictive

225
00:14:09,790 --> 00:14:14,590
idea, right? There's blue
skies in Tennessee and no leaves

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00:14:14,590 --> 00:14:21,550
on the trees, no environmental
shading. And we went out one morning,

227
00:14:21,550 --> 00:14:25,030
and we couldn't find any of
our birds. And so all the birds that

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00:14:25,030 --> 00:14:28,710
we had recited, they were,
like, gone. Right. And that can happen

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00:14:28,710 --> 00:14:31,230
early in a season. Right.
Birds are shuffling around, figuring

230
00:14:31,230 --> 00:14:33,890
out where they want to be on
their territory, but we noticed that

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00:14:33,890 --> 00:14:38,210
they were gone. And then we
got forced out of the field the next

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00:14:38,210 --> 00:14:41,730
couple days because this
gigantic tornadic storm came through.

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00:14:41,730 --> 00:14:42,250
It was.

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00:14:42,250 --> 00:14:44,930
It has its own. The storm has
its own Wikipedia page, actually.

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00:14:45,410 --> 00:14:51,250
It was. It was pretty bad.
Yeah. I think it had 82 tornadoes

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00:14:51,410 --> 00:14:55,970
that it spawned. It injured
like 500 people, and it actually

237
00:14:56,130 --> 00:14:59,670
killed 35 people and caused 30
over a billion dollars of damage.

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00:14:59,670 --> 00:15:05,870
So a very, very significant
storm. And so after the storm passed,

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00:15:05,870 --> 00:15:07,830
we went back to the field
sites. We didn't know what we would

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00:15:07,830 --> 00:15:11,430
expect. We didn't get hit with
a tornado in our field site, but

241
00:15:11,990 --> 00:15:15,630
there were tornadoes around in
the region. And we went back and

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00:15:15,630 --> 00:15:20,350
we started seeing our birds
again and recapturing them. And as

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00:15:20,350 --> 00:15:25,270
we. As we looked at the data,
we noticed what appeared to be movement

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00:15:25,270 --> 00:15:28,910
of these birds away from the
breeding site in. In concordance

245
00:15:28,910 --> 00:15:33,190
or in, you know, coincident
with this storm system coming through

246
00:15:33,190 --> 00:15:36,430
and ahead of it. By a few
days. Yeah. And so by a few days.

247
00:15:36,990 --> 00:15:37,710
By a few days.

248
00:15:37,710 --> 00:15:38,590
Okay, cool.

249
00:15:38,590 --> 00:15:44,430
And so we looked at weather
data as we would. We looked at pressure,

250
00:15:44,430 --> 00:15:48,350
we looked at cloud cover, we
looked at temperature. And these

251
00:15:48,350 --> 00:15:53,200
birds initiated these
movements well before any of the

252
00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:57,560
conditions changed relative to
the storm at the site in Tennessee.

253
00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:02,760
And about these movements,
these birds moved hundreds of kilometers,

254
00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:06,439
we think, and geolocators are
not terribly precise. They have error

255
00:16:06,439 --> 00:16:11,480
with them inherent with this
rudimentary technology. But we think

256
00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:15,240
that These birds moved 500 to
800 kilometers in some cases.

257
00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:16,440
Wow.

258
00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:20,980
Yeah. Returning along the
routes which they came north. And

259
00:16:20,980 --> 00:16:24,060
they did so in ways that were
pretty compelling. Like, like these

260
00:16:24,060 --> 00:16:28,100
bird. These tags are recording
light. Right. And so sunrise happens

261
00:16:28,100 --> 00:16:33,500
at a certain time. Right. And
so when you have a tag that. A tag

262
00:16:33,500 --> 00:16:38,620
on a bird that collects a
sunrise 30 minutes earlier, you know,

263
00:16:38,700 --> 00:16:43,420
that's hard to explain without
suggesting that that bird moved east

264
00:16:44,060 --> 00:16:48,180
and was experiencing sunrise
on the globe earlier than our field

265
00:16:48,180 --> 00:16:54,440
site. And so we thought about
this a lot and did a lot of research

266
00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:58,200
into some of these sensory
mechanisms. And what we kind of settled

267
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:06,680
on as a likely hypothesis is
that these golden wing warblers sensed

268
00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:12,120
really low frequency noises,
or infrasound. So below our level

269
00:17:12,120 --> 00:17:15,930
of hearing, these are
naturally occurring sounds created

270
00:17:15,930 --> 00:17:22,970
by ocean currents mashing
against continental plates. You know,

271
00:17:22,970 --> 00:17:28,370
like giant air masses sliding
through mountain ranges produce these

272
00:17:28,370 --> 00:17:33,010
very low frequency noises that
we as humans can't hear, but we know

273
00:17:33,330 --> 00:17:38,370
animals can hear. And so
there's evidence of dinosaurs probably

274
00:17:38,370 --> 00:17:43,570
could hear infrasound. And we
know that other birds can hear infrasound

275
00:17:43,570 --> 00:17:51,120
as well. So we think that this
infrasound is relatively stable geographically,

276
00:17:51,120 --> 00:17:55,120
or at least natural sources of
it are kind of stable. And it forms

277
00:17:55,120 --> 00:17:59,760
this infrasonic map that birds
might be able to use to navigate,

278
00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:05,520
basically by hearing how close
they are to some of these big sources

279
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:09,240
of noise and positioning
themselves in a place where they,

280
00:18:10,510 --> 00:18:14,390
you know, know that they use
it as a benchmark basically to say,

281
00:18:14,390 --> 00:18:17,470
like, okay, I want to be this
far from this. Yeah, yeah, this low

282
00:18:17,470 --> 00:18:21,510
frequency noise. And, and so
what we know about these big tornadic

283
00:18:21,510 --> 00:18:27,070
storms of this severity is
that again, these hot and cold air

284
00:18:27,070 --> 00:18:31,110
masses, as they're sliding
over each other, are producing low

285
00:18:31,110 --> 00:18:34,550
frequency noises. It's. It's
possible that these birds heard these

286
00:18:34,550 --> 00:18:39,420
noises and made the decision
based on this time of the year. Um,

287
00:18:39,420 --> 00:18:41,940
they didn't have nests, they
didn't have young. They had just

288
00:18:41,940 --> 00:18:45,660
kind of got to the breeding
site. They made the choice to. To

289
00:18:45,660 --> 00:18:49,820
evacuate and kind of get out
of the way. Yeah, yeah. It's an exciting

290
00:18:49,820 --> 00:18:52,860
time to be doing this kind of
research. And that was a fun study

291
00:18:52,860 --> 00:18:56,700
and was one of those
serendipitous things that you don't.

292
00:18:56,700 --> 00:18:59,860
We didn't set out to discover
that. We were just literally, you

293
00:18:59,860 --> 00:19:02,700
know, trying to understand
where. Where these tiny birds go

294
00:19:02,700 --> 00:19:05,150
during the winter. That's what
we were trying to figure out. And

295
00:19:05,540 --> 00:19:10,220
in the process, we learn
something about how they respond

296
00:19:10,220 --> 00:19:12,940
in real time to severe weather
and stuff.

297
00:19:12,940 --> 00:19:17,340
Yeah, And I think that's so
often the case that you're planning

298
00:19:17,340 --> 00:19:21,460
on doing one thing and then
something happens and you get to

299
00:19:21,460 --> 00:19:24,940
really think deeply about
something else. And yeah, that's

300
00:19:24,940 --> 00:19:28,100
just how science operates. I
think the infrasound idea is really

301
00:19:28,100 --> 00:19:30,860
cool. I mean, there are,
there's good evidence, I think, that

302
00:19:30,860 --> 00:19:34,500
elephants use infrasound to
detect where, like on the African

303
00:19:34,500 --> 00:19:39,000
Serengeti, where is it raining
and then moving towards that. So

304
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,920
it's not like it's not super
far fetched to imagine that. They

305
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:45,240
like to suspect that they have
this ability. And like you said,

306
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:49,400
it's been shown in other
birds. So. But man, yeah, having

307
00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:53,880
that kind of early warning
system is pretty incredible. And

308
00:19:53,880 --> 00:20:01,600
it's cool that you guys just
randomly captured the event, You

309
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,640
know, with the gulls flying
out before a storm approaches or,

310
00:20:05,310 --> 00:20:08,950
you know, rain crows or yellow
billed cuckoos. Right. They start

311
00:20:08,950 --> 00:20:13,950
to sing right before rain
events. And most of those are associated

312
00:20:13,950 --> 00:20:17,270
with pressure changes. Can you
speak a bit to, to that atmospheric

313
00:20:17,270 --> 00:20:18,830
pressure piece in all of this?

314
00:20:19,310 --> 00:20:24,230
Yeah, so this is, I'm, and I'm
not a sensory biologist, so I'm not

315
00:20:24,230 --> 00:20:27,950
an expert in this exactly. But
my understanding is that we're still

316
00:20:27,950 --> 00:20:31,230
trying to figure out exactly
how these birds are sensing some

317
00:20:31,230 --> 00:20:36,140
of these cues. But as far as
pressure goes, I think the leading

318
00:20:36,140 --> 00:20:39,820
idea is that these birds have
a membrane in their ear, a tympanic

319
00:20:39,820 --> 00:20:44,740
membrane of sorts that is
sensitive to these changes in pressure.

320
00:20:44,820 --> 00:20:48,780
But one of the other competing
hypotheses is that birds don't have

321
00:20:48,780 --> 00:20:52,020
regular lungs like us humans.
They have all these air sacs, and

322
00:20:52,020 --> 00:20:56,660
so they are constantly taking
in this air and it's filling cavities

323
00:20:56,660 --> 00:21:01,620
in their body in a different
way than it does in mammals and humans.

324
00:21:01,620 --> 00:21:07,480
And so there's potential for
birds to sense changes in that atmospheric

325
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:12,040
pressure in multiple avenues.
And so whether it's this tympanic

326
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:17,280
membrane in their ear or an
air sac or some combination of those

327
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:21,120
factors, we think it's
something to do with those.

328
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,640
I mean, the air sac idea I had
never heard of before. For people

329
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:26,880
listening, they're probably
like air sacs. What are you talking

330
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,600
about? So it's hard to explain
and probably the thing that confuses

331
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:34,370
my ornithology students the
most, but birds have one directional

332
00:21:34,370 --> 00:21:37,970
flow of air through their
lungs. So we have these blind sacs.

333
00:21:37,970 --> 00:21:41,770
We breathe into, they expand,
we breathe out. It's the same bolus

334
00:21:41,770 --> 00:21:46,930
of air. But for a bird to
exhale air, it actually breathes

335
00:21:46,930 --> 00:21:49,970
in twice before that comes out
as the air goes into their bodies,

336
00:21:49,970 --> 00:21:52,370
like Gunner's saying, it fills
these air sacs and they're all over

337
00:21:52,370 --> 00:21:56,050
their body. So, yeah, if there
were sensors, really, I mean, I guess

338
00:21:56,050 --> 00:21:59,740
thinking back to the uncle
with the broken healed foot, if you

339
00:21:59,740 --> 00:22:03,220
have these pressure sensing
sacs all over your body, it makes

340
00:22:03,220 --> 00:22:05,900
intuitive sense that it might
allow you to detect really subtle

341
00:22:05,900 --> 00:22:08,420
changes in air pressure. I
just never heard that.

342
00:22:11,940 --> 00:22:16,300
One of the most amazing
experiences I had was spending a

343
00:22:16,300 --> 00:22:21,340
spring banding returning
migrants on the Gulf coast of Texas.

344
00:22:21,340 --> 00:22:21,780
Okay.

345
00:22:21,780 --> 00:22:25,500
And so we were like on a
barrier island, basically, or we

346
00:22:25,500 --> 00:22:29,880
were right up against the
ocean capturing birds in mist nets

347
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,400
to determine we were
disbanding them and looking at condition

348
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:35,840
of birds that were coming
through, how much fat they had, how

349
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,920
much fuel stores, and looking
at species composition and abundance

350
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:46,240
of individuals. And we had
what birders and ornithologists refer

351
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:50,400
to as a fallout day where.
Where basically these birds took

352
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:55,710
off from Mexico the night
before under presumably decent conditions.

353
00:22:55,790 --> 00:22:58,750
And they hit some weather
halfway through. And specifically,

354
00:22:58,750 --> 00:23:03,510
like a little bit of rain and
a north wind, right? Which is they're.

355
00:23:03,510 --> 00:23:06,750
They're flying north and
they're facing a headwind, and that

356
00:23:06,750 --> 00:23:10,110
becomes energetically
demanding. They'll stop migrating

357
00:23:10,110 --> 00:23:13,110
and land at the first
available stopover site that they

358
00:23:13,110 --> 00:23:18,550
can find, which is often
coastal islands. And so we kind of

359
00:23:18,550 --> 00:23:21,190
suspected that this was
happening. And we went out in the

360
00:23:21,190 --> 00:23:27,070
afternoon. We were watching
and hearing these birds falling out

361
00:23:27,070 --> 00:23:29,430
of the sky. And it was one of
the most remarkable things. I've

362
00:23:29,430 --> 00:23:33,430
never seen anything like it
since, but it was almost as though,

363
00:23:34,310 --> 00:23:37,390
like, birds were whizzing by
you at super fast speeds. And if

364
00:23:37,390 --> 00:23:39,549
you think about like the shape
of a peregrine falcon, when they

365
00:23:39,549 --> 00:23:42,230
have their wings kind of
tucked in, in this super aerodynamic

366
00:23:42,230 --> 00:23:45,350
thing, that's what these
little songbirds were doing. And

367
00:23:45,350 --> 00:23:47,790
they were making this noise
that I'll never forget of just like

368
00:23:47,790 --> 00:23:52,260
a, you know, a whizzing bayou.
And all of a sudden then you'd look

369
00:23:52,260 --> 00:23:58,180
in the shrub and there would
be eastern kingbird or Baltimore

370
00:23:58,180 --> 00:24:01,300
oriole. And so you got the
sense that these birds were making

371
00:24:01,300 --> 00:24:03,980
this decision to stop
migrating. And we went out the next

372
00:24:03,980 --> 00:24:07,459
morning and we started
banding. We opened our nets and we

373
00:24:07,459 --> 00:24:10,780
caught like a ton of birds. It
was like three nets open or four

374
00:24:10,780 --> 00:24:13,700
nets open. And we caught like
300 birds over the course of this

375
00:24:13,700 --> 00:24:17,700
morning, all different
species. And what struck me as really,

376
00:24:17,700 --> 00:24:22,760
really amazing is that all of
these tiny birds, Tennessee warblers,

377
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:29,400
Nashville warblers, golden
winged warblers, cerulean warblers,

378
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:35,200
they had fallen out of this
migration and fallen out and come

379
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:39,720
down to earth. But they all
still had all of these fat reserves

380
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,120
still on their body. And you
can blow away their feathers on their

381
00:24:43,120 --> 00:24:47,840
breasts and you can kind of
see this subdermal fat that they

382
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,820
store and use for, for fueling
their migration. But they weren't

383
00:24:51,820 --> 00:24:56,220
in bad condition. And so what
it meant to me was that these birds

384
00:24:56,220 --> 00:24:59,740
only stopped migrating because
they didn't want to keep flying into

385
00:24:59,740 --> 00:25:03,060
this bad weather. But they,
they weren't on that. They're not

386
00:25:03,060 --> 00:25:05,660
on the knife's edge. Right.
They're not, they're not operating

387
00:25:05,660 --> 00:25:09,340
on the edge of their
physiological capacity. And we know

388
00:25:09,340 --> 00:25:12,860
this actually from some
modeling work like the Gulf of Mexico.

389
00:25:12,860 --> 00:25:17,960
We think that with a full fuel
load, many of these very small warblers

390
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,000
could actually make that trip
four or five times.

391
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:21,800
Wow.

392
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:26,400
Without stopping. And so, and
so it's hard for us to imagine as

393
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:30,320
people, as humans who have no
flight capacity. And you know, I

394
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:34,480
don't, I, I can't even imagine
running a marathon. And, and yet

395
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:38,120
they're out there. These birds
are out there flying 800km nonstop

396
00:25:38,120 --> 00:25:42,040
and they got enough fuel in
the tank where they could just keep

397
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:46,190
going and keep going, but they
choose not to because they'd rather

398
00:25:46,190 --> 00:25:49,510
not burn that fuel and they'd
rather save it for a day when they

399
00:25:49,510 --> 00:25:53,030
can, you know, make some, make
some distance and get back up to

400
00:25:53,030 --> 00:25:56,950
the breeding grounds. But it
was really remarkable and a really

401
00:25:56,950 --> 00:26:00,030
cool experience to see. And
the other thing I'll just comment

402
00:26:00,030 --> 00:26:03,670
on is like the diversity of
species that were in that fallout.

403
00:26:03,670 --> 00:26:08,590
You know, it was small
warblers, it was cuckoos, icterids,

404
00:26:08,590 --> 00:26:15,220
like Baltimore orioles and you
know, cat birds. So what's cool is

405
00:26:15,220 --> 00:26:18,500
that these are distantly
related species. Right. But this,

406
00:26:18,580 --> 00:26:22,500
this behavior, the migrating
across this gigantic barrier has

407
00:26:22,500 --> 00:26:26,300
evolved many, many times and,
and, and therefore, like, it must

408
00:26:26,300 --> 00:26:28,220
be this really adaptive thing. Yeah.

409
00:26:28,220 --> 00:26:31,220
And like you're pointing out,
these birds, if they didn't hit weather

410
00:26:31,220 --> 00:26:33,660
as they were going across the
Gulf of Mexico, they probably would

411
00:26:33,660 --> 00:26:38,180
have flown another eight or
hundred or more kilometers before

412
00:26:38,180 --> 00:26:42,100
they decided to stop. And, you
know, we've cooked up stories. I

413
00:26:42,100 --> 00:26:44,500
mean, when I was a kid,
someone told me that ruby throated

414
00:26:44,500 --> 00:26:48,580
hummingbirds travel across the
Gulf of Mexico on the back of a Canada

415
00:26:48,580 --> 00:26:51,740
goose, which actually makes no
sense because there's no Canada geese

416
00:26:51,740 --> 00:26:55,460
that are flying across the
Gulf of Mexico, as I'm aware. But

417
00:26:55,460 --> 00:26:58,420
actually these tiny birds are
well adapted to making these long

418
00:26:58,420 --> 00:27:01,780
distance flights that like you
said, the Gulf of Mexico isn't even

419
00:27:01,780 --> 00:27:05,950
really one of the longest.
Right, right, yeah, that's cool.

420
00:27:05,950 --> 00:27:10,950
It would be so cool. I've seen
fallout as well and it is overwhelming

421
00:27:10,950 --> 00:27:13,950
when all these birds are, it's
like what a birder hopes for. Like,

422
00:27:13,950 --> 00:27:17,470
it's funny that a birder is
hoping for a messed up migration

423
00:27:17,550 --> 00:27:20,350
where the birds don't get to
fly as far as they want at night,

424
00:27:20,350 --> 00:27:22,030
but it is pretty cool to experience.

425
00:27:22,670 --> 00:27:23,230
Yeah.

426
00:27:23,710 --> 00:27:26,670
So you know this tornadic
storm that you're talking about,

427
00:27:26,670 --> 00:27:29,350
it's not necessarily related
to climate change, but maybe, but

428
00:27:29,350 --> 00:27:33,760
in general we're seeing like
the intensification of storms, especially

429
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:37,480
at certain times of the year,
that things, maybe these pressure

430
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:41,640
systems or even infrasound
might be more disrupted. What does

431
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,960
that mean for, you know, we're
talking about these birds. Like you

432
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,520
just said, all of these birds
are using similar cues. They're migrating

433
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:50,720
across the Gulf of Mexico
together. What do you think all this

434
00:27:51,360 --> 00:27:54,680
increased or what seems to be
increased variation and the cues

435
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,960
they might be using is going
to do to them or do we already know

436
00:27:57,960 --> 00:27:59,120
if it's causing problems?

437
00:28:00,550 --> 00:28:06,470
You know, I think all of that
is really complicated. Right. So

438
00:28:07,270 --> 00:28:12,150
it's, it's hard to know
exactly how birds are going to respond.

439
00:28:12,390 --> 00:28:16,150
And like I said, we've only
been studying migration, we've only

440
00:28:16,150 --> 00:28:20,070
been able to get individual
based migration tracks for birds,

441
00:28:20,070 --> 00:28:24,950
small birds, relatively
recently. And so in the context of,

442
00:28:25,530 --> 00:28:28,650
of what birds can do or what
they experience and how they react,

443
00:28:28,650 --> 00:28:33,130
like, it's very hard to know
at this stage how climate change

444
00:28:33,210 --> 00:28:37,690
or changing frequency of
severe storms is going to impact

445
00:28:38,570 --> 00:28:42,090
migration. But we know that
future conditions, climate conditions

446
00:28:42,090 --> 00:28:49,250
are probably going to be
warmer and have more severe storms.

447
00:28:49,250 --> 00:28:52,490
Right. There's more mo and a
warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture.

448
00:28:52,490 --> 00:28:56,710
And so one of the things that
influences birds decisions to like

449
00:28:56,710 --> 00:29:00,310
cross the Gulf of Mexico is
relative humidity. It factors in.

450
00:29:00,550 --> 00:29:05,430
And so we, and we don't know
exactly why necessarily, but you

451
00:29:05,430 --> 00:29:09,030
know, changes in humidity,
like, like any of these small things

452
00:29:09,030 --> 00:29:14,630
could have really big
downstream effects on the timing

453
00:29:14,630 --> 00:29:15,390
or I think.

454
00:29:15,390 --> 00:29:17,430
It's generally thought like
we've figured a lot of stuff out

455
00:29:17,430 --> 00:29:20,310
about why birds do what they
do. But as you're pointing out, we've

456
00:29:20,310 --> 00:29:23,350
only been able to track these
individual migrations of small songbirds

457
00:29:23,350 --> 00:29:27,790
for like two decades. Ish. And
so there still is a lot to learn

458
00:29:27,790 --> 00:29:31,830
both about how variable those
are and then also how they might

459
00:29:31,830 --> 00:29:35,110
respond to these broader scale
changes that we're documenting. And

460
00:29:35,350 --> 00:29:38,110
one thing that's kind of
repeatedly come up is, you know,

461
00:29:38,110 --> 00:29:42,830
birds are adaptable. They can
fly, they can change their behavior.

462
00:29:42,830 --> 00:29:48,030
They've got a big toolbox for
dealing with change. But I think

463
00:29:48,030 --> 00:29:51,590
it's this idea that the speed
with which those changes are happening

464
00:29:51,590 --> 00:29:55,230
or the magnitude of those
changes or the frequency with which

465
00:29:55,230 --> 00:29:59,340
things are out of the norm
might be the challenging piece. Certainly

466
00:29:59,340 --> 00:30:03,020
that seems to be the case with
things like large El Nino events,

467
00:30:03,020 --> 00:30:06,140
that if they come too
frequently, there's no recovery piece

468
00:30:06,140 --> 00:30:06,740
or whatever.

469
00:30:06,740 --> 00:30:08,580
So, yeah, right.

470
00:30:08,820 --> 00:30:11,260
We've reached the part of the
show we call that's BS or that's

471
00:30:11,260 --> 00:30:14,020
bird stuff, where we give our
guests an opportunity to debunk a

472
00:30:14,020 --> 00:30:16,180
myth that ruffles their
feathers. So, Gunner, what do you

473
00:30:16,180 --> 00:30:17,300
want to call BS on?

474
00:30:18,820 --> 00:30:24,420
I want to call BS on the
notion that we have this whole bird

475
00:30:24,420 --> 00:30:27,220
migration thing figured out
and that we know everything that

476
00:30:27,220 --> 00:30:31,680
there is to know about the
movements and behaviors of especially

477
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:40,600
smaller songbirds. And I think
a lot of my work is to fill really

478
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:45,920
critical basic knowledge gaps.
So I'm a movement ecologist, maybe

479
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:49,560
I'm a migration ecologist. I'm
interested in what we call the full

480
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:53,520
annual cycle of birds. But
most of what I do is geared towards

481
00:30:53,850 --> 00:31:00,530
illuminating previously
unknown aspects of bird biology to

482
00:31:00,530 --> 00:31:04,290
better inform our ability to
develop conservation strategies.

483
00:31:04,290 --> 00:31:07,930
And so all of that work that
we've talked about with golden wing

484
00:31:07,930 --> 00:31:11,210
warbler migration was all just
fueled by a very simple question,

485
00:31:11,210 --> 00:31:15,730
which was where do birds in
Minnesota Winter vs Birds in Tennessee

486
00:31:15,730 --> 00:31:22,860
winter? And for it may be
surprising to people to hear that

487
00:31:23,580 --> 00:31:30,340
we don't know where individual
populations kind of migrate to. Right.

488
00:31:30,340 --> 00:31:33,780
We know the broad general
range of birds or the distribution

489
00:31:33,780 --> 00:31:39,260
of golden winged warblers or
Baltimore Orioles or woodthrush on

490
00:31:39,260 --> 00:31:43,780
the breeding and non breeding
grounds. But where those individuals

491
00:31:43,780 --> 00:31:46,580
from different populations are
actually connecting to and whether

492
00:31:46,580 --> 00:31:52,090
they mix or not has really
significant implications for conservation.

493
00:31:52,170 --> 00:31:55,210
And that's where a lot of my
research comes in. And along the

494
00:31:55,210 --> 00:31:58,730
way we learn all of these
really cool things about how birds

495
00:31:58,730 --> 00:32:02,170
sense weather, how they might
respond to different conditions.

496
00:32:02,330 --> 00:32:07,210
We've got a lot more to figure
out. And there's a lot of species

497
00:32:07,210 --> 00:32:08,330
where we don't have any information.

498
00:32:08,650 --> 00:32:11,770
And I mean, yeah, your work
linked like these golden winged warbler

499
00:32:11,770 --> 00:32:14,770
populations actually do winter
in really different places. And it

500
00:32:14,770 --> 00:32:18,690
matters a lot for like, if you
look at population trends in Tennessee

501
00:32:18,690 --> 00:32:22,570
versus Minnesota, one of those
populations has declined a lot more

502
00:32:22,570 --> 00:32:26,450
than the other. And that
population in Tennessee mostly overwinters.

503
00:32:26,450 --> 00:32:28,290
Is it in Venezuela predominantly?

504
00:32:28,290 --> 00:32:31,810
Yeah. Yep. Eastern Colombia
and Venezuela. Yep.

505
00:32:31,889 --> 00:32:33,850
And so if you're thinking
about, I think a lot of us think

506
00:32:33,850 --> 00:32:36,690
about conservation in the
context of home and what we can do

507
00:32:36,690 --> 00:32:39,850
here. But for a lot of our
migratory birds, they're only here

508
00:32:39,850 --> 00:32:43,070
for the minority of their
lives. And so knowing where they

509
00:32:43,070 --> 00:32:46,870
go and working with partner
countries to understand how we can

510
00:32:46,870 --> 00:32:49,630
conserve their overwintering
populations is, like, critically

511
00:32:49,630 --> 00:32:53,390
important to still having some
of these species come back to our

512
00:32:53,390 --> 00:32:56,590
forests every summer. So. All
right, well, thanks so much for joining

513
00:32:56,590 --> 00:32:59,310
us, Gunner. It's been really
great to talk to you about the ability

514
00:32:59,310 --> 00:33:02,350
of these birds to undergo
migrations in the context of the

515
00:33:02,350 --> 00:33:04,870
weather they're experiencing.
And, yeah, thanks for taking the

516
00:33:04,870 --> 00:33:05,150
time.

517
00:33:05,390 --> 00:33:06,110
Thanks, Scott.

518
00:33:10,090 --> 00:33:12,210
Birds are dinosaurs, and
around here, we like our snacks.

519
00:33:12,210 --> 00:33:15,330
So we end each episode with a
dinosaur nugget. Today's nugget is

520
00:33:15,330 --> 00:33:18,250
birds aren't really predicting
the weather. They're sensing it with

521
00:33:18,250 --> 00:33:20,570
senses we don't have and that
we're still trying to understand.

522
00:33:21,050 --> 00:33:23,649
They can read drops in
barometric pressure that humans don't

523
00:33:23,649 --> 00:33:27,250
notice. They almost certainly
hear infrasound, the very low frequency

524
00:33:27,250 --> 00:33:29,690
rumble that big storms
generate hundreds of miles away,

525
00:33:30,090 --> 00:33:33,250
well before the wind ever
picks up. And they can see polarized

526
00:33:33,250 --> 00:33:35,690
light, which means they can
read parts of the sky that look completely

527
00:33:35,690 --> 00:33:38,980
blank to us. So when Grandma
said the birds were acting funny

528
00:33:38,980 --> 00:33:41,700
before the storm, Grandma was
right. The birds were ahead of her

529
00:33:41,700 --> 00:33:45,100
and she was smart enough to be
paying attention. That's a wrap on

530
00:33:45,100 --> 00:33:48,020
this week's episode. Okay, but
can birds predict the weather? If

531
00:33:48,020 --> 00:33:50,500
you like this episode, leave
us a rating or review or like and

532
00:33:50,500 --> 00:33:58,860
subscribe. We'll catch you
next time. Byeee. Okay, But... Birds

533
00:33:59,020 --> 00:34:02,780
is hosted by Scott Taylor,
with production and creative by Zach

534
00:33:10,090 --> 00:34:03,340
Karl.