900: Bold Predictions

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ Zacherthis JJ Zacherson.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone.

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Speaker 1: It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode nine hundred of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Thanks for tuning in. This is always one of the most popular things that I do each year. People love them some bold predictions, and I do too. I enjoy coming up with them. But for anyone who's new to all of this or new to me, I do need to make a general statement here. These are not hot take bold predictions. They may not be bold.

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Speaker 2: Enough for you.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sitting here saying some rookie running back who is drafted on Day three is gonna finish in the top five of the position, or that some quarterback is gonna throw seventy touchdowns. I try to be realistic with my bold predictions. I explain why they're bold, and some of them may not be bold enough for you. But I do explain why they're bold, and I give reasons as to why these predictions could come to fruition. Every player has some range of outcomes in fantasy. These predictions are essentially looking at the lower end the higher end.

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Speaker 2: Of those outcomes. Now.

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Speaker 1: I emailed out fifteen bold predictions in the Late Round Fantasy Football newsletter, and that email will eventually be added to the newsletter archives on lateround dot com, but today I'm picking ten of those to share on the podcast. Now, before digging in, here's your reminder to take advantage and get a free late Round draft guide. All you have to do is head to underdog fantasy dot com, sign up with promo code Late Round, make it a posit, and you'll be emailed the guide shortly after signing up.

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Speaker 2: That guide includes tons.

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Speaker 1: Of strategy related research as well as the typical players to target, players do avoid late round dart throws, and my top two hundred rankings and tiers.

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Speaker 2: There's one more update to the guide.

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Speaker 1: Which happens on Friday, and when you sign up, you can also get a deposit offer of up to one thousand dollars in bonus cash. You can play best ball while also getting the Late Round Draft guide, So take advantage underdog Fantasy dot com promo code Late Round. Brian Thomas will finish as a top twenty four wide receiver. This bold prediction is bold because Brian Thomas is being drafted as the wide receiver forty nine. That's according to Fantasy Pros Consensus ADP. So if he's a wide receiver too, a top twenty four wide receiver, that would be pretty crazy. That's a great value. That's why this is bold. Now, why this could happen is because my ZAP model, my prospect model, really like Brian Thomas. He scored a ninety four point five that gives him very good odds to succeed in Fantasy football throughout the first three years of his career. Since twenty fourteen, there have been twenty three rookie wide receivers drafted in the wide receiver forty to wide receiver sixty range with the ZAPP score above ninety. On average, those players outperformed ADP expectation by one point four PPR points per game. Over thirty nine percent of them ended up as what I call a moderate breakout, a player who outperforms ADP expectation by three or more points per game. That's one of the best subsets that you're gonna find at the wide receiver position. Rookie wide receivers in the wide receiver forty to wide receiver sixty range, and that's exactly where Brian Thomas is Thomas could play the Calvin Ridley role this year. That might not seem like anything special given how Ridley underperformed last season, but according to PFF and their expected fantasy points model, Ridley finished fourteenth and expected fantasy points per contest last season, so Brian Thomas could definitely get this done. Javonte Williams will outscore David Montgomery. This one's bold because Williams gets drafted around RB twenty eight, Montgomery around RB nineteen. Now, the downside case for David Montgomery, which is the case that I need to make for this board prediction to come true. The downside case, it's really straightforward. David Montgomery doesn't score as many touchdowns this year. Montgomery only had a five point one percent target share per game rate last season. With Jamiir Gibbs in the lineup, we shouldn't expect that number to be much higher, so will probably be a relatively touchdown reliant player. As we know, Montgomery did get thirteen touchdowns last season, but down the stretch his usage close to the end zone changed. After he came back from an injury in Week ten, he ended up splitting goal mine carries with Jamiir Gibbs. Through the playoffs, he had eleven Jamiir Gibbs had ten, So without that receiving ceiling, if they do continue to split the goal line rushes, that could be bad news for David Montgomery. He could hit the lower end of his range of outcomes. Now. On the other side is Javonte Williams. He's two years now removed from that knee injury. He wasn't overly effective last season. But of all the running backs in Denver, even though I love me some Jelil McLoughlin, of all the running backs in Denver, he has the most upside. There's no doubt about it. He's the one who profiles most as a true bellcow and the system itself is awesome for running backs. I've been saying this all off season. Sean Payton led teams own eight of the top seventeen team running back target share seasons since twenty eleven. According to PFF's numbers, Williams actually finishes the RB seventeen expected points per contest last year. Without the injury, he might end up seeing more work and that could make him a surprise winner in twenty twenty four Kyler Murray will finish as a top three quarterback. Now, this one's bold because Murray is not being drafted really that close to being a top three quarterback. But here's why this could happen. Since twenty eleven, there have been thirty five quarterbacks who hit three hundred or more pass attempts while hitting five or more fantasy points per via rushing. Of those thirty five, twenty of them ended up scoring twenty or more standard fantasy points per game. Last year, twenty fantasy points per game at quarterback would have ranked right there in QB three territory. Kyler Murray has hit four point nine points per game with his legs and all five of his seasons in the league. In four of those five he was over that five mark. Add in Marvin Harrison Junior a healthy knee another year in this offensive system, you've got a high ceiling outcome for Kyler Murray. And it's not like he hasn't been close before. Murray's given us two top five finishes over his career in points per game. Honestly, of all the predictions on the list today, this one's probably the least bold. The Tennessee Titans will have the surprise offense of the season. The reason this one's bold is because you look at the fantasy football landscape Tennessee Titans players, they're not being drafted all that high. Not only that, but like I said in the newsletter, they're led by a quarterback who eats banana peals. Here's why it can happen. Though Mike Rable's gone, Brian Callahan, he's now their head coach. Given his history, we're probably gonna see a lot more pass attempts in this Titans offense year over year. Cincinnati was pass heavy when Callahan was there, even when they didn't have Joe Burrow. Now we don't know if Will Levis is the true answer at quarterback, but what we do know he likes to push the ball down the field. Among qualified starters, last season, Levis ranked by far as the top quarterback and twenty plus air yard throw rate. So you can bind Will Levis's big arm in Brian Callahan's tendency to throw the ball a lot, and you got fantasy football goodness. This is a match made in fantasy football heaven. Potentially, everything that Tennessee has done this offseason has pointed them throwing the ball More.

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Speaker 2: They didn't keep.

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Speaker 1: Derrick Henry, they add Callahan, they get Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, and they get Tony Poller, who's not this like bruising early down running back to pair with Taj Spears. He's more of a duplicate to Taj Spears. So I really like this Tennessee offense this year. To exceed expectation. Jordan Love will be a top three quarterback during the first half of the season. Now, I know this is oddly specific, but this one's bold because Jordan Love is usually drafted in that like QB nine range. But this could happen strictly because of what I talked about last month on the podcast. Green Bay's opening schedule is awesome. The Packers open up the season against the Eagles, then they get the Colts, Titans, Vikings, Rams, Cardinals, Texans, and Jags. Those eight teams, according to PFF secondary rankings, they come in at twenty fourth, twenty eighth, fifteenth, twenty seventh, twenty sixth thirty second, eighteenth, and twenty ninth. You're not gonna find a better opening schedule than what Jan Love has at the quarterback position. Taj Spears will score thirty more points than Zamir White. This one's bold because Zamir White's the RB twenty four by ADP Spears is the RB thirty one, and then I'm just adding the thirty points in there to make this prediction even more lopsided. But I've said it throughout the summer. Is there a more traditional dead zone running back this year than Zamir White? He really hasn't done that much throughout his time in the NFL, aside from what he did at the tail end of the twenty twenty three season, where he scored at least twelve points six PPR points in each of his final four games. Here's the problem, dating back to college, Zamir White has never been a high volume pass catcher, and even during that big December that he had last year, he was still averaging a sub ten percent target chair per game rate. The Raiders project to be a run heavy team who won't run a lot of plays. Now, when I say run heavy, you might be excited about that because Zamir Whites inn early down back, but there's also a chance that they're very inefficient and they're not scoring that many points. They're not giving Zamir White a lot of scoring opportunities. That's a problem, as is the fact that they have Alexander Madison, who's kind of a replacement level player, but he could dig into this workload. And then they drafted Dylan Lowby, who's a great pass catching back. So I think that Zamir White's one of those players who can meet expectation, but I just don't see where the ceiling is gonna come from now. Taj Spears, on the other hand, he's someone who does have a pretty high ceiling. His fourteen point eight percent target chair per game rate last year that was the sixth highest mark from any rookie running back since twenty eleven. The running backs ahead of him Bijon Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, and Tarik Cohen. Spears is sharing a backfield. I like drafting both Spears and Pollard, not on the same team, but I've gotten a lot of both of them. Again, I really like the Tennessee Titans offense, but Spears is in a split back. He's gonna have a worse projection versus Zamir White, but there's always a chance that he just sees more work than what's being expected. And there's also a chance that Tony Pollard gets hurt. That's why Spears has a chance to outscore Zamir White. Sam Darnold will finish with more passing yards than Justin Herbert. This one's bold because Justin Herbert is a way better quarterback than Sam Darnold. But here's why this can happen. It's because of offensive scheme. Kevin O'Connell's system in Minnesota has been one where the Vikings have been really pass heavy. They've ranked sixth and passing rate over expected during both of his seasons as head coach.

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Speaker 2: Now, that was mostly with.

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Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins, but with Kirk Cousins, the Vikings have ranked third in the NFL in passing yards over the last two seasons. Now, over in LA, things could look a lot different. You got Jim Harbaugh in town and he hired offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Roman's been an NFL offensive coordinator for nine seasons. Seven of those nine seasons, his offense is ranked bottom three in pass rate. Now, I do think they're going to be more pass heavy than that this year, but there's a legitimate fear that the Chargers are slow, methodical, and run heavy, and you look at their pass catchers and you say, why wouldn't they be that way? So if the Chargers go run heavy and the Vikings don't drastically change things up, this prediction could happen. Jalen Waddle will outscore Marvin Harrison Junior. This one's bold because according to Fantasy Pro's consensus ADP, Waddle is the wide receiver twenty one, Marvin Harrison Junior the wide receiver nine. Now, look, when you listen to these bold predictions, it doesn't automatically mean them in or out on a certain player. I'm looking at range of outcomes With Marvin Harrison Junior.

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Speaker 2: He's a rookie.

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Speaker 1: We don't know exactly how things are going to go down with Harrison Junior. I think actually that where he's being drafted is totally fine. I've drafted him, but we have to recognize that things could go south, that he might not meet expectation. With Jalen Wattle, I just think that he's been massively undervalued all offseason. His points per game average did fall last year, but he's still ranked in the ninety fourth percentile in yards per route run in the ninety second percentile and targets per route run. He's in one of the better offenses in football, and there's contingent upside with him too. If Tyreek Hill goes down, even just for a stretch of games, Jalen Waddle is going to be projected to see a twenty eight twenty nine percent target share.

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Speaker 2: In that offense.

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Speaker 1: He all of a sudden becomes a top ten wide receiver in fantasy. So don't take this as avoid Marvin Harrison. Take this as draft Jalen Waddle. Caleb Williams, and Jayden Daniels will both score nineteen or more points per game. This one's bold because since twenty eleven, among all rookie quarterbacks who played eight or more games, only Cam Newton, Robert Griffin the Third, and Justin Herbert were able to score nineteen or more points per game. Here's why this can happen, though. Caleb Williams enters the league as a really good prospect, and he's a really good prospect who scored twenty seven rushing touchdowns throughout three years in college, and he has some of the best weapons that you're gonna find for a rookie quarterback. That's why Williams can get to this mark plain and simple. With Jayden Daniels, he doesn't have the same kind of weapons, but his rushing ability can definitely get him to nineteen points. There have only been five rookie quarterbacks since twenty eleven to hit three hundred pass attempts in eighty rush attempts. Those are numbers that were expecting Jayden Daniels to get to. Those five were josh Allen, Kyler, Murray Russell Wilson, and then two of the players that I mentioned earlier, Robert Griffin third and Cam Newton. So two of those five guys hit that nineteen mark. The other three were at nearly eighteen points per game. So if Daniels shows up as a passer, he can definitely get there. And now here's the last one. Jackson Smith and Jigba will finish as a top twenty wide receiver. This one's bold because according to consensus adp JSN is in that wide receiver forty to wide receiver fifty range. But here's why it can happen. The Seahawks have a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb. He's no stranger to running an offense with stud wide receivers. He's coming from Washington, where he just coached Romadunza, Jalen Polk, and Jalen McMillan. The Huskies were a more pass heavy team than what the Seahawks are going to be, but we can expect some of these concepts to transfer over, like a more up tempo offense and an offense that's willing to throw the ball down the field. Seattle ranked dead last in plays run last year. The defense played a role in that, but so did offensive philosophy and that offensive approach last year it helped lead JSN to some pretty disappointing rookie season numbers. He had a one point three to two yards per route run rate and his average depth the target was only six point four yards. With Tyler Lockett taking a step back last year in efficiency, it's not that hard to see JSN improving on those numbers. A rational offensive coordinator is not going to use JSN in that way. Really, at the end of the day, with this bold prediction, you're betting on the talent of Jackson Smith and Jigba. He answered the league with a really good ZAP score. He was a really good prospect and we saw glimpses last year of strong wide receiver play. If you can take that natural step forward under this new offensive coordinator, this new scheme, a scheme is going to push the ball deeper and not give him a six yard a dot, big things can happen for JSN.

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Speaker 2: That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening.

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Speaker 1: If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't for to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB, and make sure you subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel. It's at YouTube dot com at Late Round FF. And one more thing, starting this week, Late Round Perspectives is running every single week through the fantasy season, as is the Mailbag episodes. So the Mailbag and Late Round Perspectives drops on Friday and then next week. Next week is game time. Next week is when the show goes to five episodes per week because next week is week one. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the final episode of Becoming a Best Ball bro