Global Markets Stabilize; Harris Clinches Democratic Nomination

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Good morning, I'm Nathan 0:00:11.000 --> 0:00:13.960 Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're 0:00:14.000 --> 0:00:15.240 following today, Dared. 0:00:15.280 --> 0:00:17.919 We begin with the rebound in markets, and we're joined 0:00:17.920 --> 0:00:20.639 by Bloomberg's Critty goup to quite the bounce back in 0:00:20.800 --> 0:00:21.560 Asia overnight. 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:24.720 Critty a massive bounce back go start on the Japanese 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:28.040 stock market. There the top x a wopping nine point 0:00:28.080 --> 0:00:30.200 three percent to do even better than ni K two 0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:32.760 to twenty five, closing over ten percent hired. This of 0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:35.479 course compared to the twelve percent drop yesterday, So in 0:00:35.600 --> 0:00:38.000 about twenty four hours, in two sessions time, you did 0:00:38.000 --> 0:00:41.120 not see a complete pairing back of the losses, but 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:44.239 pretty close, some pretty good volatility that is likely to 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:46.080 sustain throughout the week. You're also going to see a 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:49.200 similar story, Nathan, over in the South Korea index member 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:51.440 chips is still very much the story. So any index 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:55.200 with exposure there was saking a lot of the extra turmoil. 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:57.600 Today they are seeing extra gain. So the COSTPI over 0:00:57.600 --> 0:01:00.080 in South Korea hired by three point three percent, COSDAK 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:01.760 closing up over six percent. 0:01:01.960 --> 0:01:03.880 And what are we seeing as far as European trading 0:01:03.920 --> 0:01:04.880 goes critty, so. 0:01:05.040 --> 0:01:06.560 A little bit of a mixed picture when it comes 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:08.600 to Europe. You would think some of the positivity would 0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:11.800 kind of feed on over and it's doing the exact opposite. Actually, 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:14.200 So when you do look at say the Eurostock fifty, 0:01:14.240 --> 0:01:16.160 it's actually down by two tens of one percent. You're 0:01:16.200 --> 0:01:18.440 not seeing that same optimism. To be fair, you also 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:21.480 didn't see that same drop to that extent yesterday, but 0:01:21.520 --> 0:01:24.000 still a two percent drop yesterday. About on average across 0:01:24.000 --> 0:01:26.679 from the indexes today you are seeing most of these 0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:29.800 indexes about flat. The French index, however, down about half percent, 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:33.280 taking the biggest hit off all the major indices. 0:01:33.520 --> 0:01:36.080 All right, Bloomberry's Cretti, Gupta and Credie will be checking 0:01:36.160 --> 0:01:38.080 in with you throughout the morning, of course. And as 0:01:38.120 --> 0:01:39.679 we said earlier, we are seeing a bit of a 0:01:39.720 --> 0:01:43.160 bounce back in US futures following yesterday's sell off. The 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:46.680 SNP five hundred lost three percent, extending a tumble from 0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:49.080 its peak to eight and a half percent. The tech 0:01:49.120 --> 0:01:51.800 heavy Nasdaq one hundred also lost three percent. It is 0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:54.400 now after its worst start to a month since two 0:01:54.440 --> 0:01:57.240 thousand and eight. Lindsay Rosner is head of a multi 0:01:57.360 --> 0:01:59.920 sector investing at Goldman's Sacces asset manage. 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:03.520 The market is getting into a healthier zone and markets 0:02:03.520 --> 0:02:05.560 don't move, even though I think we've been pretty used 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:08.640 to it recently in a straight lineup. We have to 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:12.760 understand that these kind of drawdowns and replacements happen, and 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:15.680 this is why from an active management seat where we are, 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:18.040 we want to have the steady hands in the market 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:19.080 to add where it makes. 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:22.960 Sense, golmans I said. Management s Lindsay Rosner. Wall Street's 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:26.160 fear gauge, the VIS was above sixty five at one 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:29.360 point yesterday. Today it's recouping and is around thirty three. 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:32.280 Karen is. Speculation grows on whether the Federal Reserve will 0:02:32.320 --> 0:02:35.079 cut rates ahead of its September meeting. Some are throwing 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:38.640 cold water on the idea, including Bloomberg opinion contributor Mohammad 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:39.120 al Aarian. 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:40.600 I am of the view. 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:43.120 That this will We will look back on this and 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:46.160 say it was an overreaction in certain parts of the 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:51.600 markets and the market got carried away by demanding into 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:55.959 meeting cuts, by demanding seventy five basis points in September. 0:02:55.960 --> 0:02:59.600 It's not going to happen. That's Bloomberg opinion columnist muhammadel Arian. 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:02.720 Nathan FED officials are also dousing hopes of a rate 0:03:02.760 --> 0:03:06.280 cut before September. San Francisco FED president Mary Daily is 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:09.320 indicating that cuts should begin in coming quarters. 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:13.320 You know, from my mind, we've now confirmed that the 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:17.040 labor market is slowing, and it's extremely important that we 0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:20.560 not let it slow so much that it tips the 0:03:20.560 --> 0:03:22.720 that tips itself into a downturn. 0:03:23.080 --> 0:03:26.120 San Francisco FED president Mary Daily added she still sees 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:29.919 the labor market as reasonably solid, as most employers are 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:31.000 not cutting jobs. 0:03:31.120 --> 0:03:31.520 Well, Karen. 0:03:31.560 --> 0:03:34.000 One of the hardest hit tech stocks during the recent 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:36.800 sell off was in Vidia. It is down about twenty 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:39.400 five percent from its recent high, and we've learned in 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:43.200 Vidia CEO Jensen Wang has been unloading shares. He sold 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:46.000 nearly three hundred and twenty three million dollars worth in July. 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:49.120 Combined with shares sold in June, Jensen Wang is unwound 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:52.000 almost a half billion dollars in his in Vidia steak 0:03:52.320 --> 0:03:55.240 since the stock hit its peak amid the AI fueled rally. 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:58.920 Nathan investor Kathy Wood is defending her sale of Nvidia 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:02.000 shares before the company's huge rally, we cut up with 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:03.520 the Arc Investment ceo. 0:04:03.920 --> 0:04:07.480 We wrote it up one hundredfold. Would we have liked 0:04:07.520 --> 0:04:11.680 another triple? Sure, But here is the most important question 0:04:12.000 --> 0:04:16.400 for Nvidia to be. To deserve where it is right 0:04:16.440 --> 0:04:20.120 now from a valuation point of view, other companies out 0:04:20.120 --> 0:04:24.880 there must be having phenomenal results. 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:28.080 Our investment CEO Kapy Wood made the comments on the 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:30.240 Bloomberg Tiger Money podcast. 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:33.279 Now, Karen's the latest on the presidential race. It is 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:36.960 officially a race now. Vice President Kamala Harris has clinched 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:40.039 the Democratic nomination for president. We get the very latest 0:04:40.040 --> 0:04:42.160 from Bloomberg Steve Potisk in Washington. 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:45.839 The virtual roll call vote wrapped up last night and 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:49.559 the Democratic National Committee says the Vice president won ninety 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:53.120 nine percent of the delegates votes. The process was a formality. 0:04:53.240 --> 0:04:55.640 No one else was on the ballot. Now the question 0:04:55.800 --> 0:04:58.839 is who will join Harris on the ticket. She's expected 0:04:58.880 --> 0:05:01.719 to announce her running mate today. Over the weekend, she 0:05:01.800 --> 0:05:05.120 met with at least three contenders, Mark Kelly of Arizona, 0:05:05.160 --> 0:05:09.600 Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro, and Tim Walls from Minnesota. Harris is 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:12.760 kicking off a seven battleground state tour this afternoon in 0:05:12.800 --> 0:05:17.200 Shapiro's home state in Philadelphia. She'll formerly accept the nomination 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:21.320 later this month at the Democratic National Convention in Washington. 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:23.560 Steve Potisk Bloomberg Radio. 0:05:23.440 --> 0:05:25.720 All right, Steve, thanks well. Back in Washington. It's going 0:05:25.760 --> 0:05:28.359 to be a very long couple of days for Boeing. 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:32.080 The planemaker is facing its most extensive hearing yet into 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:36.039 the fuselage blowout back in January that exposed multiple quality 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:39.680 lapses at its factories. The National Transportation Safety Board is 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:44.080 spreading the questioning over twenty hours today and tomorrow since 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:46.880 the accident. Boeing is named a new CEO, has agreed 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:50.159 to buy back its supplier, Spirit Aerosystems, and it's pleaded 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:53.760 guilty to a conspiracy charge from two previous seven thirty 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:55.599 seven MAX crashes in Karen. 0:05:55.640 --> 0:05:59.120 Illegal loss for Alphabet. This morning, a federal judge has 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:04.080 ruled Google illegally monopolized the search market through exclusive deals. 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:07.200 Google made twenty six billion dollars in payments to be 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:10.520 the default search engine on smartphones and web browsers. The 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:14.240 judge ruled those payments effectively blocked any other competitor from 0:06:14.240 --> 0:06:17.400 succeeding in the search market. This is the government's first 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:20.680 major antitrust victory against a tech giant in more than 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:21.480 two decades. 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:26.480 And it's time now for a look at some of 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:28.719 the other stories making news in New York and around 0:06:28.760 --> 0:06:31.680 the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker. John, 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:33.360 Good morning, and good morning, Karen. 0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:37.520 Debbie is now a killer downgraded from hurricane to tropical storm. 0:06:37.640 --> 0:06:42.080 It damaged homes of businesses, sent floodwaters rising across sweeping 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:45.719 power outages across Florida and Georgia. It led to several 0:06:45.760 --> 0:06:49.320 fatalities in Georgia. The mayor of Savannah issue to curfew. 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:51.640 It's going to catch a whole lot of people by surprise. 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:54.840 Bloomberg meteorologist Rob Carolyn is tracking the storm. 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:58.240 John Trockle, Storm Debbie is located on the coast of 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:00.000 Georgia this morning, and this system is going to be 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:03.960 responsible for some very heavy rainfall over the Eastern Carolinas 0:07:03.960 --> 0:07:06.640 in Georgia over the next several days. Some places are 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:09.440 going to receive an excessive two feet of rain from 0:07:09.440 --> 0:07:10.000 this system. 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:14.600 Bloomberg Meteorologist Rob Carolyn. Several US personnel were injured in 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:18.040 a suspected rocket attack at a military base in Iraq. 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:21.400 The attack comes its Tensions across the Mideast are spiking 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:24.760 following the killings last week of a senior hensbela commander 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:28.680 at Lebanon and Hamas's top political leader in Iran. The 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:31.120 US and its allies are working to head off a 0:07:31.160 --> 0:07:34.840 wider conflict. On Bloomberg's Nancy Allons is more from. 0:07:34.760 --> 0:07:38.800 Washington, Secretary of State Anthony Lincoln says he's been speaking 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:41.760 with leaders from Cutter and Egypt, the two countries who've 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:44.320 been helping lead negotiations for a ceasefire. 0:07:44.440 --> 0:07:48.400 It is a critical moment. We are engaged in intense 0:07:48.440 --> 0:07:52.760 diplomacy pretty much round the clock with a very simple message. 0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:57.720 All parties must refrain from escalation. Iran has said it 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:00.640 wants to avoid an all out war, but to create 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:04.720 deterrence against Israel. Israel says its forces are on a 0:08:04.760 --> 0:08:08.800 hair trigger alert to carry out defensive and offensive missions. 0:08:09.280 --> 0:08:11.720 In Washington, Nancy Lyons Bloomberg Radio. 0:08:11.920 --> 0:08:14.600 Most New York City restaurants taking part in the city's 0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:18.680 pandemic here outdoor dining program haven't sought permits to make 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:22.280 their sheds permanent, meaning they'll have to be dismantled. The 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:26.920 critics called the outdoor structure's eye sores that attracted rats 0:08:26.960 --> 0:08:30.480 and took up parking spaces, while proponents say they inject 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:34.680 life into the urban landscape. Michigan voters today will decide 0:08:34.720 --> 0:08:39.120 which Republicated Democratic candidates will compete in November for the 0:08:39.120 --> 0:08:42.600 state's highly coveted open US Senate seat. In addition to 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:46.240 several of the nation's most competitive US House races, many 0:08:46.280 --> 0:08:50.920 Democrats have coalesced around REPRESENTATIVELYSSA slot Giny, and the Senate race, 0:08:50.960 --> 0:08:55.199 while Republicans have united behind former Congressman Mike Rodgers, who 0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:59.080 received an endorsement from Donald Trump earlier this year. Both 0:08:59.160 --> 0:09:02.480 candidates vying for the seat left open by longtime Democratic 0:09:02.520 --> 0:09:07.439 Senator Debbie Stabenhaw's retirement, but they must first defeat underdog challengers. 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:10.679 In today's voting, Global News twenty four hours a day 0:09:10.720 --> 0:09:13.319 and whatever you wanted with Bloomberg News Now, I'm John Tucker. 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:15.560 This is Bloomberg, Nathan and Karen. 0:09:15.840 --> 0:09:22.680 All right, John, thank you any time now for the 0:09:22.679 --> 0:09:25.120 Bloomberg Scores update with John Stashauer. 0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:26.520 John, Good morning, Yah morning. 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:26.800 Karen. 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:28.240 Was already going to be a long road trip for 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:31.160 the Mets, with games in Anaheim, Denver, Cy, Adam. Then 0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:33.040 they had a rainout in Saint Louis. Had to make 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:35.800 it up yesterday. They stopped in, got great pitching from 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:39.000 Sean Menia, broke the game open in the fifth inning. 0:09:39.760 --> 0:09:42.560 Is one two line down the right field lie. 0:09:42.679 --> 0:09:44.680 That's a face hit by Taylor. 0:09:44.600 --> 0:09:45.840 Going into the corner. 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:49.640 Alvarez is in, Peter is in never getting waved around 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:50.400 toward the plate. 0:09:50.600 --> 0:09:52.760 The throat of the plate is not in time. 0:09:53.440 --> 0:09:57.760 Three run doubled all right for Tyrone Taylor WCBS. The 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:00.040 Met's won six to nothing. What a free age and 0:10:00.200 --> 0:10:02.480 signing man I has been his last two starts. He's 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:05.840 pitched fourteen scoreless innings, allowing only eight hits with one 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:09.240 walk twenty one strikeaffs. Yankees were off home tonight for 0:10:09.280 --> 0:10:12.680 the Angels. Yanks tied for first with Baltimore Red Sox 0:10:12.679 --> 0:10:14.920 eighteen hits, one, nine to five at Kansas City. The 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:17.200 Giants got to five hundred with a four to one 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:20.319 win in Washington. Then there are the White Sox, a 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:24.679 model of consistency. They just keep losing five to one 0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:27.559 in Oakland, the thirty second time this season. Chicago has 0:10:27.559 --> 0:10:29.840 failed to score even two onns in a game. Losing 0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:32.440 streak is at twenty one, going back to July tenth. 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:35.800 It's tied to the longest skid in modern American League history. 0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:38.840 The Major League record is twenty three. Two gold medals 0:10:38.840 --> 0:10:41.679 for the US gives them twenty one, tied with China, 0:10:41.840 --> 0:10:45.400 US way ahead and overall medals won. Valerie Allman won 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:47.840 the women's discus, just as she did three years ago, 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:51.280 and Caroline Marks one gold in the surfing that's taking 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:54.599 place in Tahiti. In Paris today, h's the US and 0:10:54.760 --> 0:10:58.880 Brazil men's basketball quarterfinals. US takes on Germany in the 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:01.840 women's soccer. That means the men's soccer gold medal game 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:05.400 will be Friday, Spain against France. Post Nation won at 0:11:05.440 --> 0:11:07.720 semifinal game with Egypt and extra time, so were world 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:10.760 champion Chiefs have woped up in all pro kicker Harrison 0:11:10.840 --> 0:11:13.000 Bucker will make six and a half million a year. 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:16.680 Bucker this past spring made news with a controversial commencement 0:11:16.760 --> 0:11:19.200 speech johns Dashawa Bloomberg Sports carry. 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:25.800 Maybe coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:28.760 and around the world. On Bloomberg dot Com and the 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:33.040 Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm 0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:34.840 Nathan Hager. It's a better morning. 0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:37.720 Some calm may be settling back into the market after 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:41.480 yesterday's plunge for stocks around the world. A whole host 0:11:41.520 --> 0:11:44.480 of factors came together to send investors fleeing to safety. 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:47.120 This morning, we are seeing a bit of recovery. But 0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:51.080 is this a calm before another storm joining us now? 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:55.760 Janet Mooey, head of Market analysis at RBC, brewin Dolphin, Janet, 0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:57.400 good morning is the worst over? 0:11:58.679 --> 0:11:58.760 Hi? 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.240 I'm Money and Nathan, thanks for having me well. It 0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:03.600 is hard to say, to be honest, I think the 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:07.600 market narrative has shifted from focus on inflation to concern 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:11.160 on growth. So unless we have the clarity on the 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:13.240 growth side of things, I don't think we can be 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:17.440 sure or you know, when is this end or volatility? Physically, 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:20.440 we still have geopolitical atention and of course the US 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:24.080 election where the race is pretty tight at the moment. Though, 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:26.920 I having said that, we do feel that valuations have 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:33.080 become more attractive, so certainly paving the way for a 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:34.680 better entry point for investors. 0:12:35.040 --> 0:12:40.280 More attractive valuations. Where specifically, where are you advising clients 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:42.760 to buy in at this point? 0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:48.120 Yeah, so currently we are not, you know, exactly advising 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:51.520 clients to buy in at this particular point. But overall, 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:55.839 our portfolio strategy has been overweighted in US and also 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:59.800 with favor semiconductor stocks. Now those areas of the market 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:04.720 has obviously seen a correction and particularly some of those 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:09.760 semiconductor stocks have slummed. I think irrespective of fundamentals, it's 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:13.079 more sentiment and position drivening. So we feel that that 0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:16.920 could open up opportunities because we still view those sectors 0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:20.720 as you know, very good long term prospects. 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:23.720 Are you looking for the market to test further lows? 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:26.800 What other catalysts should we be looking at in terms 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:29.040 of where this volatility could go from here? 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:33.480 I think there is a real possibility. So our base 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:36.640 case is still a stock blending even though that recession 0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:40.400 risk admittedly has risen. I think the key risk here 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:44.240 is I think it's oil prices. We have seen actually 0:13:44.240 --> 0:13:48.360 all prices falling because of those recession risks, But don't 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:51.160 forget we still have geopolitical rests on the background. The 0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:54.959 tension between Israel and Iran is still high, so if 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:58.920 our prices rise from here, that could be a pretty 0:13:58.920 --> 0:14:01.719 bad scenario for market is because that would mean staculation. 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:05.920 Does your soft landing thesis rely on the FED delivering 0:14:05.960 --> 0:14:09.079 more aggressive rate cuts than it's been telegraphing. 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:13.640 I think yes at this stage it does. So I 0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:17.560 think if the fat were to cut a couple of 0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:21.800 times this year and more next year, I think we 0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:25.200 are we have the pathway to avoid our recessions. So yes, 0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:27.960 it is conditioned on the fat cutting, and the fact 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:31.320 is we're I think the thing is the fat does 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:34.200 have the leeway to cut. I think that's pretty clear 0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:36.200 because first of all, the rates are at five and 0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:39.320 a half percent and inflation is heading in the right direction. 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:44.960 I think those are the very important assumption in inflation reaccelerates, 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:47.960 which is not what we're expecting, by the way, I 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:49.320 think that would be more difficult. 0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:52.600 Backdrop, Does the FED need to cut before September? I 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.320 know a number of FED officials have been pushing back 0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:57.480 at that idea, But is that something that the FED 0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:58.280 needs to consider? 0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:02.680 I think it could be risky mode. Actually, I think 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:05.040 so far, as you mentioned at the beginning, we're actually 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:08.680 having a bit of a normality, and I think it's 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:12.240 a bit it's a bit of a best signaling. If 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:14.800 they were to cut in between meetings, it shows a 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:18.440 bit of desperation in my view, and I think, you know, 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:22.240 we have just we just need to wait one month's time. 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:25.440 I think nothing major is likely to happen in between. 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:29.280 We I like to get some more economic data that 0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:32.440 could induce the polity, but I think it's worked out 0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:34.400 to wait until September eighteen. 0:15:34.800 --> 0:15:37.680 This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:41.280 the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:44.360 Look for us on your podcast feed at six am 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:48.080 Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you 0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:49.320 get your podcasts. 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:52.160 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:54.760 am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 0:15:54.840 --> 0:15:57.640 in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, 0:15:57.800 --> 0:16:00.880 Bloomberg one six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine 0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:02.359 sixty in San Francisco. 0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:05.960 Our flagship New York station is also available on your 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:11.080 Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:14.920 Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, SERIUSXM, 0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:18.600 the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan 0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:20.200 Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:23.160 Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:26.520 need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak