280: Mailbag 9/13/19

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher Reson. What's up everyone? It's JJ zach Reeson, the editor in chief at fandel and at Number five dot com. And this is episode two hundred and eighty of the Late Round Podcast, one of the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Excuse me just a second role. I put my pants back on. They've been off since Lamar Jackson threw his third touchdown pass, which was actually if you didn't hear his third touchdown pass of five that he had on Sunday. In all seriousness, I do want to talk about Lamar Jackson to open up today's show. He had, at least for me, the most exciting Week one of anyone in the league, and as someone who touted Jackson all summer long, I'm pumped about it. Let me be clear about something. I'm going to be wrong about stuff all season long. Some of my fifteen transactions are going to be wrong. Some of my start sit choices are going to be wrong. Some of the things that I said in Week one were totally wrong. Right. I told you that I didn't like t Y Hilton last week, I told you to sell Devin Singletary before Week one because of the potential workload share in that backfield. But my job as a fantasy analyst is to be objective and modify my takes based on new information. For example, as I alluded to on this week's ten Trend Show, I actually think that Devin Singletary is now a bye. So when I go to Twitter and I tweet in all caps about Lamar Jackson's performance, it's not a victory lap. I'm not saying I told you so. I'm genuinely excited because number one, I love it when players shut the haters up. But number two, look at my Twitter handle. I wrote an ebook seven and a half years ago about drafting quarterbacks late in fantasy football. This season, my go to late round quarterback ended up being Lamar Jackson. Hell, yes, I'm excited about that. If I wasn't excited about that, then that would mean that I don't care at all about what I'm doing for a living. It would mean that I wouldn't care about providing good analysis. I care. I want to provide good analysis for you guys, and I want us all to share the excitement around fantasy football. Now, the other thing, and this is more focused on Jackson and his outlook itself. But the other thing that I saw after Week one was well, this was just a results based outcome because the people who liked Lamar Jackson were touting him for his rushing ability. And clearly Jackson didn't perform like he did on Sunday because of his legs. But I'd argue that this is a bad way of looking at process. Yes, Lamar Jackson was an attractive quarterback option entering the season because he provided a nice floor with his legs. He averaged like eleven fantasy points per game via rushing last year, but that was also what provided a floor for Lamar Jackson in the twenty eighteen regular season. Jackson actually ranked higher than ninth and weekly Quarterback Scoring just once, and it came in Week seventeen, when the fantasy football season was already over. But he also consistently finishes a lower end QB one or a higher ENDQB two, and it was because he rarely threw more than one touchdown pass in a game, but he was always able to boost his fantasy total with his legs. This is what I said all off season. You can go back and listen to my players the Target podcast if you want receipts, if you care about that kind of thing. That in order for Lamar Jackson to hit a ceiling, he'd need to be a better passer, and that's where the new weapons and Greg Roman came into play. Greg Roman had a history of helping dual threat quarterbacks, and Lamar Jackson had two dynamic wide receivers to now throw to, and Jackson himself had the chance to just evolve as a passer. So process wise, what happened on Sunday was that his passing ceiling happened to hit. And when that happens, a quarterback like Jackson isn't going to run the ball as much. But what's beautiful about Jackson moving forward is that, no, of course, we shouldn't expect this type of performance week in and week out, but what's beautiful is that we didn't even see his rushing floor hit, which means when a poor passing performance does happen, he's still got a good chance to be fantasy relevant. We're looking at range of outcomes here in almost any starting quarterbacks. Range of outcomes realistically is a huge passing performance and that high end in the range hit for Lamar Jackson on Sunday and it was exciting as hell. Before get into this week's mail bag questions, I've got to let you know about another fandul free play for you this week where you can win number five or premium if you one in. Just go to your browser and type in fandle dot com slash League slash JJ. That's fandle dot com slash League slash my name JJ. Then enter a lineup and press submit. That's all The top three spots earn a subscription and this is only for FanDuel Podcast Network listeners. Go to fandle dot com slash League slash JJ to get entered for week two. This first question is from at Hot Spurs ninety one. What teams or players have changed your mind the most after one week? I love this question. I think it's something that we should almost ask every single week during the fantasy football season. But one I already mentioned. That's Devin Singletary. I thought that not only did he look great, but I loved his peripheral numbers and usage overall, especially as a receiver, So I would be buying right now and then there's Terry McLaurin. I scout mostly through data because it's what I know and what I can do pretty well. I don't dismiss what film people see when they're looking at prospects, but I have my prospect model to help guide my decision making. And the model didn't like Terry McLaurin. It liked Marquise Brown, it liked aj Brown, It liked players who did well in Week one, but it wasn't into McLaurin because, like a lot of Ohio State pass catchers, his production profile was lacking. And for the record, I don't just live and die off my models. I just use it to spot red flags and see if there are any overlooked or underlooked players in the draft. But McLaurin, I thought looked really good. He's got great athleticism and that really was never in question. But he's a really good route runner and I'm excited to see where his season goes. Some other quick thoughts on surprises in Week one, John Ross, he looked good and I think he's going to be part of this offense moving forward. I don't think that Week one was a fluke. I also thought that Denver's defense looked pretty bad given the talent and the coaching that they have. Cleveland's offensive line was even worse than I thought that they would be, but there were at least some reasons for it. And even though I was pretty intrigued and high on Dallas's offense coming into the season, he still exceeded my expectations in week one. I'm pumped to see what they can do with Kellen Moore running things there. This next question is from at jahwick Ham rank the panic button on Round three running backs, carry On, Sony DeVante Freeman, Aaron Jones. I think of all of them, the biggest panic situation has to be Sony Michelle. Snap right correlates strongly in to fantasy output, and he had by far the lowest snapshare of these four running backs mentioned. Carry On was at about fifty seven percent. Freeman in a negative game script that got way out of hand, was at fifty percent, Aaron Jones at fifty nine percent, and he missed a little bit of action due to an injury, and Sony Michelle is at just thirty three percent. So Michelle regardless of gamescript. Because some of the other guys were in funky scripts as well. Michelle was the one with the worst snapshare, and then we can look at usage too. Carry On, Freeman, Jones, and Michelle all saw fifty percent or more of the running back rushes in their backfield, but all the while Carryon had about a five percent target share, Freeman nine percent and Jones four percent. Sony Michelle did not see a target. Given the history of New England running backs and how much of a headache they can be, I would definitely say that Michelle is the one that we should be panicking about most. With that being said, he still makes for a good play in Week two against Miami. I don't know how i'd rank the other guys though, to be honest, maybe put carry On next, because I would have expected the target share to be higher. But that's also in a game against a bad secondary, so they exploited a match up there, and then maybe Freeman and then Jones after that. This next question is from at Big Tempo Co. How long do you stash potential breakout running backs on your bench before cutting bait? Example, Justice Hill I got this question a lot this week, and honestly, there are so many factors that go into this. How deep is the bench, how deep is the league? What's available on the waiver wire? Am I good to go at the running back position? Allowing me to take a chance on a flyer, because that's sort of what Justice Hill is right now, That's what Justice Hill was drafted as. What I'm sort of intrigued to see with him, though, is what happens if Baltimore is in a negative ascript. I'm curious how they may utilize him as a receiver. We just may not see that for a little bit given their schedule. So I would still be stashing Justice Hill if I could, because I do think that he's good and there's a clear rotation with the running backs in Baltimore. It just depends on your specific team in the league that you're in to determine if you should just cut Hill. This next question is from at Eric Blair. With all the usage that Carlos Hyde got this week, how should we view Duke Johnson going forward? Yeah, so let's not overstate the impact that Carlos Hide on Duke Johnson. In Week one, Duke saw forty seven percent of Houston's running back rushes, which was the thirty third highest rate in the league. In Week one. That's not great necessarily, but you also drafted Duke as a fringe RB two and that number isn't that far off from twenty fourth, which is where you hypothetically drafted Duke Johnson. All the while, Duke played sixty three percent of the team snaps while Hyde played thirty seven percent, and Duke had a huge seventeen percent target share when Hyde share was under four percent. So I would argue that Duke Johnson was used how we expected Duke Johnson to be used. He was really involved in the passing game, but then he split early down work. The big question mark will be the goal line offense, and it wouldn't surprise me if Hie does get looks there, and that's kind of scary. But Duke can still be a consistent piece week in week out in PPR formats. This next question is from at Josh Underscore Jenkins five. Is Mikole Hardman an auto's start while Tyreek Hill is out? Gotta figure Sammy gets a team's number one and speed kills right. I don't think we can quite say that Hardman's a must start right now, but I'm definitely surprised that he's not getting more love. He was the clear cut wide receiver two in that offense. On Sunday when Tyreek Hill went down, he played the second most snaps in the team and he ran the second most routes. And we know he fits the offense given his speed. So you're tying a new weapon. Who's the right fit? Who's gonna see more usage? To Patrick Mahomes, who wouldn't want that? I just want to see the usage though in week two before I'm plugging him playing EQO Hardman because they could realistically just use other players more than we would like, like someone like DeMarcus Robinson. This next question is from at Toby Wang Chung. I'm gonna apologize ahead of time for the start sit nature of this question, but what are your thoughts about starting your opponent's top targets and head to head? For example, I'm playing against car should I start Waller over TJ. Grounkinson. The only reason you'd really do this is if number one it's being used as a tiebreaker, or number two you're a heavy favorite in that game and you want to basically cap the amount of upside that your opponent can get versus your roster. But overall, it shouldn't be a driving force with your decision making because it forces you to be less optimal. This next question is from at RL Tom nine. Can you talk about the season long and dynasty value of Malcolm Brown? Seems to be a big part of the game plan, at least until the NFL playoffs. Love the show, Keep keeping it real, jj Z. Thanks Man. So I doubt that there's a massive march for Brown and dynasty because there are so many unknowns right now. It's easier to invest in season long because he's likely someone that you're getting off your waiver wire and your commitment is just for a year. My biggest fear with Brown is going to be inconsistency. He did see the goal line work for them in Week one and he was able to find the end zone as a result, but if those attempts aren't there, he's not going to be some five or six target per game player. Gurley actually ran a good number of routes in Week one, which is a little reassuring for any of you who have Todd Gurley. But like I talked about this offseason, Brown was always a big value in drafts because he was the back who would benefit the most from a Todd Gurley injury, as in if Todd Gurley missed an entire game, Because he profiles as the early down back while Darryl Henderson is the pass catching, change of pace player. I was a little surprised to see the split we saw not between Gurley and Brown in Week one, but Brown and Henderson. I thought we'd see a little bit more from Henderson, even though I was into Brown entering the year, I just liked Henderson too, and I think Darryl Henderson's a really good player. So I guess what I'm saying is I think Brown can be a flex play moving forward, depending on the league size, and he's going to be a lot easier to use in standard leagues rather than PPR. We just have to monitor that usage close to the goal line as things progress, because realistically, guys, they could just start using Girly there more and things would change drastically. They would change in an instant. But right now, Malcolm Brown is more of a flex play. This next question is from at liv Love Fantasy. When you consider pace when making start and sit decisions or do you ignore pace and just focus on percentage of snaps and percentage of targets for a wide receiver. I always consider pace. Pace is a huge part of what to look at when forecasting a player's performance. It's why teams facing Arizona not only have an advantageous matchup in terms of the opponent and the personnel that they're going to face, but the Cardinals offense is going to run at a fast pace that generates more plays in the game in total. It's a reason I like the Lions offense in Week one. So pace isn't as important as regular volume like target share and rushing share, but it absolutely is vital in understanding how big that volume PIP is. This last question is from at pell three to one six. Is Aaron Rodgers no longer a weekly must start? Injuries and coaching staff appear to be the excuse for his performances over the last two years, But can he be trusted weekly? Have Prescott sitting on waivers screaming for a pickup. So first off, we probably should give Rogers somewhat of a pass because he was facing the Bears in Chicago. That's gonna be one of the hardest matchups for quarterbacks all season long. But I'm gonna go on a little bit of a rant here. This is part of the reason drafting earlier round quarterbacks is just a bad idea. You feel attached to that player when it's a player playing a replaceable position. Like let's just compare Aaron Rodgers to some of the running backs we talked about earlier who had some concerns after week one. Let's compare him to Sony Michelle. Having Michelle sucks right now because you used an earlier round pick on him and he didn't produce. Now you're questioning if you should use a middle round running back that you drafted who's in a timeshare over Sony Michelle. The alternatives aren't pretty. So from this you might be thinking, this is why it doesn't matter what position you draft early, they're all gonna bust. Well that's not true at all. We know earlier round wide receivers and running backs produce better than late round ones, in fact, at a better rate than quarterbacks do. When you look at the r squared between average draft position and points scored all the while, finding an alternative at quarterback is easy. That may sound like then that it's no big deal if Aaron Rodgers doesn't pan out, because you can just get another quarterback off the waiver wire. But what it actually means is that teams who didn't invest anything at quarterback are then able to get productive quarterbacks off the waiver wire for free. They didn't need to make an investment, and in doing so, they added an additional running back or wide receiver that will help their depth for instances where a player like Sony Michelle bus which, by the way, this is all hypothetical. I don't think that Sony Michelle is gonna bust. But this is the definition of opportunity costs. This is what opportunity costs is all about. When you get a quarterback earlier for going the chance to have that depth a wide receivers and running back. Quarterback is competitive. There are so many pieces at QB who can hop right into your lineup and outproduce someone who is drafted in the earlier rounds, And if you stay tied to that one earlier round quarterback, you're missing out on one of the easier ways to exploit your opponents in fantasy football. So would I straight up drop Aaron Rodgers for Dak Prescott. No, not necessarily. I would try to have both of my team if I'm being honest, is Rogers a must start each week? Definitely not. I would do my best to sell the name brand and see what I could get. This is why Aaron Rodgers in single quarterback leagues was a sell on last week's fifteen Transaction Show. The problem is in those single quarterback leagues, the quarterback market almost never exists. That's it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you guys for listening. If you've get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and make sure you're also following me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I always appreciate you listening. Enjoy your weekend, and good luck in week two. Fat