AvTalk Episode 362: Beware tall elk and low flying hog hunters

AVT 362 Transcript
EPISODE 362
[EPISODE]
[0:00:07] IP: Hello, and welcome to episode 362 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here as always
with –
[0:00:15] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Hello, Ian. How's it going?
[0:00:19] IP: Hello, Jason. It's going. We're still upright, which is, I think, saying something at
this point. How are you, sir? You're traveling this week.
[0:00:26] JR: I am. I've kicked off a spring in early summer of a bit more travel than I would
actually like, I think, but first stop is Dallas, Texas. I haven't been here since, I think, 2019, so
that's fun. It's an interesting time to travel, I think. I had my first flight with Southwest in 12 years,
I think, so it's been a minute. It's been a minute. I actually haven't flown Southwest since the day
after the final AirTran flight. Yeah, it's been a little while, I'd say, huh?
[0:01:03] IP: Let's unpack this for a moment. You flew Southwest for the first time in a dozen
years. After the implementation, or the beginning of the implementation of all of the changes.
Thoughts?
[0:01:17] JR: Yeah. It was like any other airline, I guess. It's fairly, I don't say, maybe not soon,
but hasn't been all of that much time since Southwest implemented paid seat assignment and
extra legroom. But it was fine. Everyone seemed to figure it out. It was a little weird seeing no
more boarding positions at the Southwest gates. They just had, I guess, a podium, or a pole
really, with two tablets on the top and said group one on the left, group two on the right, and
then further groups beyond that. It was just normal. I was pretty impressed with their IT, actually,
because we had some pretty rough weather on my day of travel, and it was a weather waiver,
and I was able to easily switch from a 12.30 flight to a 10.30 flight with a couple of clicks on the
app. It brought my paid seat assignment over to the earlier flight, which was a good decision,
because my original flight canceled. Chalk one up in the victory column for that. And it was fine.
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I was on a quite elderly 737-100 with no working APU, so it was quite hot. But everything else
was fine. Free Wi-Fi, free entertainment, some okay snacks that were a little too small, but at
least they were present. Overall, it was fine. It was an airline flight. I wouldn't hesitate to do it
again, I think, is what I'm getting at.
[0:02:34] IP: All right, then. What about outside the aircraft? By that, I mean the airport
experience. Because at the moment, the federal government is partially shut down, specifically
the part of the federal government that participates in screening passengers. The TSA is
currently at work, because they need to be at work, but they're not getting paid to be at work.
We've seen an increase in TSA callouts, sick leave, and also some of them just quitting. What
was that like this week?
[0:03:07] JR: LaGuardia, if you didn't have pre-check, was a bit chaotic, but it has been chaotic
for a little while. It actually has nothing to do with the DHS funding lapse, I guess, you could call
it. Or actually at LaGuardia in the middle of them transitioning, at least terminal B over from
traditional X-ray belts over to the newer CT scanner. A bunch of screening lanes are down.
Those that are open are the new CT scanners. Ian, those things suck. They are terrible. They
are so damn slow. They may be more accurate, or whatever, and you may be able to take water
through it, or whatever, but they are so damn slow. The lines for security at LaGuardia are
backed up to places inside the terminal I didn't even know existed, which is not great. But I can
tell you for certain, it is not caused by the TSA staffing issues, though that certainly seems to be
the case elsewhere. So, I’m very apprehensive about my flight back at a DFW tomorrow. Not
really looking forward to that one.
[0:04:11] IP: Well, keep us posted next week. I know Austin has been particularly hard hit with a
number of TSA screeners not being available.
[0:04:23] JR: Yeah, it's hit or miss.
[0:04:24] IP: I saw a video statement, was just at 4.30 in the morning, the line was out the
terminal and down the roadway.
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[0:04:31] JR: Yeah. You just can't really predict it. I've been also getting email alerts from the
Port Authority for Newark Airport at times, has apparently, backed up enough to warrant sending
out email alerts. But it is what it is. I made it out to Dallas. No issues. Today, I was with
Southwest Airlines at their headquarters where – Have you ever visited Southwest HQ?
[0:04:51] IP: I have. It's –
[0:04:53] JR: Go on. I want to get your take on it before my fresh take.
[0:04:59] IP: I haven't been there quite some time. The last time I was at Southwest
headquarters, it was for the rebranding and the unveiling of the new livery, so however many
years ago that was.
[0:05:10] JR: Okay, so not a super long time ago, but certainly a longer time than about four
hours ago.
[0:05:15] IP: Exactly. From what I remember of the headquarters, I remember being taken
aback by – I mean, people talk about the Southwest culture and the loss of it these days. I think
that two things really struck me about Southwest embodied in their headquarters when I was
there. It could be, I think, best described, the entire headquarters as one giant high school pap
rally.
[0:05:41] JR: Yes.
[0:05:43] IP: And /weird aviation museum.
[0:05:46] JR: Yes, exactly. It has not changed.
[0:05:49] IP: Okay. I guess.
[0:05:52] JR: It's massive, but it's like, half there are people here running an airline, and half
museum to all things Southwest, Southwest culture, Southwest history. I was also happy to see
they have not erased the past of their other airlines, like AirTran still has a pretty significant
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presence there. It is one of the weirdest, in a good way, I want to clarify, the weirdest
headquarters I have ever been to. It is huge. It is way bigger than I thought. Some of the
touches of just preserved offices of Herb Kelleher and –
[0:06:26] IP: I was really hoping you would bring that up.
[0:06:27] JR: And Collin Barrett. I did not know that was there. I did not know they had
recreations of their offices behind a glass wall. As we had walked in, we were already making
comparisons to like, there's a little bit of severance vibes in here, where there's a portrait of the
deceased boss looking down at you when you walk in. Then there's literally his office preserved
behind glass and a button you can press, apparently, to hear him laugh. It is delightfully strange
and I think really personifies the Southwest culture that they have not forgotten their past.
They're not hiding anything. We saw a bit of their training center, too, their simulators. They
have an entire mock airport too, which is phenomenal.
Apparently, the 12.30 Midway to LaGuardia flight was a couple hours delayed as one does, but
they have a lot of data coming in. They have a whole training facility there, Southwest
University. They have a full-size gate hold area and bag check and a jet bridge and then
everything. It was just super cool. If you have the means to go somehow visit Southwest HQ,
definitely ask for the grand tour, because it's worth every minute.
[0:07:37] IP: They're happy to give it to you. I mean, that's the thing.
[0:07:38] JR: Oh, very happy.
[0:07:40] IP: I think what struck me the most when I was there is that no one was semi-
ashamed about any of this. There was not even a hint of ironic enjoyment here. It was people
really loved where they worked, and it was just a wild place to be. I hope that carries through,
because I mean, I think we've talked about on the show a bunch of times how the changes that
Southwest has been implementing, and you started off when I asked you how the flight was.
You said, it was fine. It was any other airline. I think they built the entire airline on not being just
another airline. Now to hear that they've still have a little bit of that going on, hopefully, will keep
things alive.
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[0:08:24] JR: Yeah, for sure. To be clear, I was here on actual business. We had a boring
meeting in a conference room with a screen attached to a laptop and everything. I didn't ask for
the tour, but we got the tour, because they're that happy to show off everything there. It was
great.
[0:08:39] IP: That's how it's done, my friends.
[0:08:40] JR: Good stuff.
[0:08:42] IP: Let's head out to this week's news, where we turn our attention back to the war in
the Middle East, which is currently on its third week. Over the past week, since we last
discussed what is happening in Iran, over the Persian Gulf, and in the wider Middle East, we
have a few aviation points that we want to touch on, a few things that have changed and a few
things that have remained the same. One of the largest stories over the past week was the mid-
air collision between two KC-135 aircraft operated by the United States Air Force. One of those
aircraft crashed. All six crew aboard were killed rather tragically. This was a nighttime, what
sounds like a head-on collision, though we have not heard anything from a DoD investigation, or
otherwise to really solidify that reporting.
The other aircraft was able to limp back to Tel Aviv, and photos of that aircraft surfaced rather
quickly on social media, showing the aircraft's tail about half missing. From the tip of the tail to
where the American flag sits on the tail was just gone. Thankfully, the rudder remained attached
and seemingly operable, and they were able to make it all the way back to Tel Aviv.
[0:10:10] JR: Yeah. Crazy that that could happen in the controlled airspace, where there are no
other aircraft aside from the military, that this could still happen. I don't know if we'll ever get a
report on this. I don't know exactly how that works when you have a military crash like that.
Hopefully, we see something and figure out how this happened.
[0:10:31] IP: Hopefully we'll see a DoD report, but I'm not holding my breath for anything
anytime soon. What we have seen after this crash, which occurred on the 12th of March, we
have seen an increase in United States Air Force aircraft, especially the refueling tankers, but
also, other aircraft using active transponders throughout their sorties, which has shown a shift in
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the airspace usage out of Iraq and into a corridor that lines the border between Iraq and Saudi
Arabia. That's been one of the interesting things that has changed in the week since this crash.
Things that have not changed are a majority of the airspace closures. We did see over the week
a few operations out of Bahrain, a few further movements of aircraft out.
Qatar Airways has been able to operate additional flights, but events have transpired that have
set us back in terms of the number of flights. The largest event that has happened over the past
week was a drone strike from Iran on an area near Dubai airport, which impacted a fuel facility
causing a massive fire. That disrupted Dubai International ops for quite some time on the 15th of
March. Then, the impact of that has further been a reduction in operations at Dubai, but also
some changes in who can operate. Because of whatever happened at Dubai International, the
effects haven't been spelled out precisely by the folks in the UAE, but as part of that, they have
closed operations at Dubai International and Dubai World Central to non-UAE airlines, which is
an interesting note here.
[0:12:35] JR: We've seen flights, Emirates flights, I think, especially A380s taking off out of DXB
and then hopping over to DWC, or Jeddah, somewhere in Saudi Arabia, or even Abu Dhabi, I
think, and then continuing on. Hard to tell if it's a fuel supply issue, a fuel distribution issue, if
there is no fuel. We don't really know. Unsurprisingly, they're not really saying exactly what's
going on, but there's also no indication how long this is going to go on for. They're really, really
limping along in Dubai. They're trying their hardest. Ian, remember the story of my friend,
Hendrick, last week, who is in Phuket when the Air India Express broke the runway?
[0:13:18] IP: I do.
[0:13:19] JR: Where, I guess, he was about 25 minutes from departure. Where do you think he
was when the Dubai fuel farm was at?
[0:13:26] IP: No. No.
[0:13:27] JR: 25 minutes away from landing in Dubai on his way home, they ended up devoting
to DWC, where he was for a little bit, and then was eventually re-routed. No, it gets worse.
Eventually, he was re-routed through Germany, where there was a misconnect and a bit of a
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delay on the way in, I think, to Frankfurt, maybe Munich, right in time to be impacted by what's
going on in the Lufthansa Group right now.
[0:13:56] IP: Oh, no. Stop.
[0:13:57] JR: Yeah. He ended up having to re-book again. I don't remember on what airline, but
Hendrick, stay home for a little bit. You've had a bad run.
[0:14:09] IP: Yeah. Oh, that's awful.
[0:14:11] JR: Yup. Sometimes you just can't win.
[0:14:14] IP: He's your friend, and he's going to remain that way, because I don't want to travel
with him.
[0:14:18] JR: I need to travel with him this year, and I think I'm done for the year. But man,
when it rains, it pours, huh?
[0:14:23] IP: Oh, boy.
[0:14:24] JR: It is Berlin, by the way. He’s connecting in Berlin, and re-booked on EasyJet.
[0:14:29] IP: Okay. I mean, I guess you just start rolling with it. I mean, at that point, you’re like
–
[0:14:32] JR: Yeah. At some point, you have to laugh at it like, what else can happen? I'm still
alive in here. It's just things have not gone well.
[0:14:39] IP: Yeah. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. Dubai International is open. It is open. It's
available, sort of, for operations to UAE-based airlines. In essence, Emirates and flydubai are
operating out of Dubai. As Jason mentioned, Emirates has been stopping for fuel, either at
Dubai World Central and just operating out of Dubai World Central, Abu Dhabi. Or they've been
stopping – A lot of flights have stopped in Jeddah, a few have stopped in Medina, and others
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have been able to take their entire journey from Dubai International up to Europe, or over to
Eastern Asia. It seems like fuel is available. Now, the question is, where is the fuel available?
Are there fuel routing issues? Are there fuel distribution issue? We just don't know. But we're
going to continue to keep an eye on this.
We've been tracking a, we're calling a Gulf Airline Recovery Index, which is setting a pre-war
baseline equal to 100, and then benchmarking each Gulf Airline's progress through day by day.
As of yesterday, Emirates was down from the day before at about 70, all the way down to about
43. They took a big hit from the closure of Dubai International, and it's still certainly not up to full
force. They're not the only ones who are cutting flights, and it's really starting to spread beyond
Middle East-based airlines. This week, SAS announced that it would be cutting flights, both in
March, some flights, and in April, some more flights. They said that they're canceling a thousand
flights during the month of April, so that amounts to about 5% of the scheduled flights for the
month, though they did not say which flights they are canceling.
They've already started canceling some flights. I assume that's part of a frequency consolidation
that allows them to operate fewer flights, but still move as many passengers as they possibly
can, though with a 5% cancellation in April, we'll have to see what that ends up looking like. I'm
hoping that that doesn't spill over into May, and then I have to find a new flight for myself.
[0:16:58] JR: Yeah. Importantly, this isn't because of network disruption, or I think that SAS just
purely because the price of fuel has gone up dramatically in about a week. It is more or less, I
think it went up 50% is the quote I saw today, I think. That's dramatic, yes. Reading a quote from
Ann Russell, who was actually quoting JetBlue's guidance from today, “Fuel prices are forecast
to jump about a third from the previous estimates, at least just on JetBlue.” This is only a couple
weeks into this mess. It's only going to get worse from here. There are plenty of flights operated
by plenty of airlines, the plenty of places that are just barely by a razor's edge profitable. If the
price of fuel goes up even a little bit, forget about a third, or by half, those flights are not
profitable and they're going to be cut.
Lots of plans being ripped up, drawn up, changed, modified, lit on fire at airlines right now. It's a
very unpredictable time. It sucks for everyone in the industry right now. The price of fuel, I don't
think anyone saw, suddenly increasing by a third to half, practically overnight.
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[0:18:12] IP: Looking at IATA's jet fuel price monitor, the price for a barrel of jet fuel on the 27th
of February was $99.4 per barrel. The following week, it went up 58.4% to $157.41. Then this
week, it increased a further 11.2% up to $175 per barrel, for a barrel of jet fuel. Not that it's
actually sold in barrels, which I feel like –
[0:18:39] JR: Everyone knows that's how you load jet fuel on an airplane. You insert a barrel
and that's one unit of fuel.
[0:18:44] IP: This just popped into my head, but do you remember a couple of years ago, there
was a Turkish Airlines 777 – It was a Turkish Airlines flight. They needed to de-ice. They had a
five-gallon water jug.
[0:18:56] JR: They got the water jug.
[0:18:58] IP: Yeah. I got to find that video, so that we can stick that in the show notes. For those
that don't know, a few years ago, at some outstation in Turkey –
[0:19:08] JR: I thought it was an Iraq.
[0:19:09] IP: So, somewhere that doesn't normally deal with de-icing, tried to de-ice an aircraft
wing by rolling a five-gallon water – like a water cooler jug down the wing. You have this guy
sitting in the window seat over the wing, videoing this ground handling person, or maintenance
person or whoever, rolling this barrel of water down the wing. You just hear it smack into the
fuselage. I don't know.
[0:19:37] JR: Good stuff.
[0:19:37] IP: I mean, I know why I just thought of that, but yeah. I'll see if I can find the –
[0:19:41] JR: Plane plus barrel equals classic video.
[0:19:44] IP: Oh, man. We'll check back in on the price of jet fuel next week. There you go. You
know what isn't good for the price of jet fuel, just generally?
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[0:19:54] JR: Practically anything and everything.
[0:19:56] IP: Blowing it up is what I'm getting at here. We had the fuel in –
[0:20:00] JR: There’s a lot of that this week.
[0:20:02] IP: There is. We have the fuel depot in Dubai, that was struck by an Iranian drone.
Then in Kabul, Afghanistan, we have Kam Air’s fuel depot being bombed by Pakistan.
[0:20:13] JR: That’s not good.
[0:20:15] IP: Remember how we talked about two weeks ago, one of my big concerns was an
escalation in the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan?
[0:20:24] JR: Is this that?
[0:20:25] IP: This isn't quite that, but it verges on being that. It makes me a little worried. A little
more worried, I should say.
[0:20:33] JR: Yeah. Things are not looking good on a global scale right now. People need to
chill out. Unfortunately, I don't think they're going to do that.
[0:20:41] IP: No, I don't think so.
[0:20:43] JR: Yeah, hide your fuel barrels.
[0:20:45] IP: Exactly. For folks that are going, why does this matter? Remember, looking at the
map, we have two corridors right now. One that goes to the south of the conflict zones through
Egypt and Saudi Arabia to get between Europe and Asia. We have the Northern route that runs
through Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and then on its way down through Afghanistan
and Pakistan. Even if it's not necessarily a hazardous situation, if that airspace were too close
for any reason, it would further constrict flights, to the point where we start wondering, how long
are some of these flights that are currently being operated economically viable for the airline?
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[0:21:30] JR: Yeah. Things are not going great right now, are they?
[0:21:32] IP: They are not. But let's talk about some good news. Because for the first time in
years, airBaltic says, that it expects to have the full fleet of A220s available for operations this
summer.
[0:21:55] JR: Minus one.
[0:21:59] IP: Yeah, minus one. This was helpfully flagged by a podcast listener. Thank you very
much for sending a detailed bit of information in about what happened. The A220 YLAAO was in
for maintenance when it experienced a pretty bad fire. That aircraft has now been written off. It
sounds like, it was an issue with the APU and fire damaged the aircraft significantly enough to
where it became a write off.
[0:22:35] JR: Well, I hope they saved the engines at least.
[0:22:40] IP: Nearly all the airBaltic A220s will be available.
[0:22:44] JR: That's great. I don't actually remember seeing any photos of this A220 that burned
down, apparently, but that's great for airBaltic finally having it hopefully after so, so many years
of being just royally screwed by Airbus and Pratt & Whitney. Of course, I feel like the majority of
its fleet isn't actually operating for airBaltic these days, especially in the summer peak season.
But it's been a tough couple of years for airBaltic, so they will more than happily take the win.
[0:23:13] IP: Yeah. They are continuing to develop their wet leasing business. They will
increase total capacity by 15% to 20% this year. That's divided between a 10% increase in
scheduled flying and a 30% to 40% increase in wet lease flying. Look for an airBaltic A220 in
any number of airlines near you, if you're flying in Europe this summer.
[0:23:39] JR: We should get a list, a full list of all the airlines that airBaltic is actually operating
on behalf of, because I’d bet there are some we don't even know about.
[0:23:46] IP: Challenge accepted.
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[0:23:48] JR: Do it.
[0:23:49] IP: We're going back in time, Jason, except that we're not going back in time, because
this is the same thing, but it's the new thing.
[0:23:57] JR: What's new?
[0:23:59] IP: The FAA has proposed another airworthiness directive, requiring that airlines
inspect their 787s for cracks created by the manufacturing errors and related to the shim gaps
between the carbon composite structural components.
[0:24:18] JR: I would have figured with 78s by now, this is just standard protocol to always
check your shim gaps on a 787. Is this new for newer produced aircraft, or the older ones that
they have to check in?
[0:24:29] IP: This is a separate component involving 787 “lower side of body slice plates.”
[0:24:37] JR: Oh, of course. Got to check your lower –
[0:24:40] IP: Sorry, splice plates.
[0:24:41] JR: Splice plates, you got to check those.
[0:24:43] IP: Yes, exactly. Those are used on the lower outboard wing skins, where they
married those to the structural components. Again, in this ongoing investigation, the shim gaps
where the two pieces meet, exceeded tolerances, and then they end up having high force on
those gaps and those joints, and that leads, or possibly could lead to fatigue cracks. That is why
they want folks to look at fat area of the aircraft.
[0:25:21] JR: Good stuff.
[0:25:23] IP: Oh, boy. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. I mean, at some point, the FAA just goes, inspect
everything. Just take the thing apart.
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[0:25:29] JR: Just give it and let go.
[0:25:30] IP: Just give it once –
[0:25:32] JR: Every couple of months, give it a once over.
[0:25:34] IP: All right. Let's change gears completely, because this, I love Colleen Mondor’s
reporting. She is the best source of Alaskan aviation reporting, and finds the most interesting
things and tells a fantastic story. This was on her Bluesky account earlier today on the 17th of
March, where she said, “I have a new favorite probable cause of an accident.” There was a
helicopter forced landing, where the helicopter was being used to try and net an elk. The report
doesn't explain why the occupants of the helicopter were trying to net an elk.
[0:26:20] JR: Net. Elk.
[0:26:22] IP: Yes. Usually, that involves some wildlife management, maybe putting a tracker on
it, or testing for diseases, or something like that. However, the probable cause was “The pilot's
failure to maintain clearance from an elk, while maneuvering at a low altitude.” I hope the elk's
okay.
[0:26:40] JR: The elk won, I guess.
[0:26:43] IP: Elk one, elk one. Helicopter zero.
[0:26:45] JR: This happened way back in 2018, actually, but good stuff to put up.
[0:26:49] IP: This is one of those long-form reportings. Then, I guess, but wait, there's more. It
should be noted, there were no serious injuries in both of these accidents.
[0:26:59] JR: That's good.
[0:27:00] IP: We're taking a little bit more levity there. This happened with a helicopter during a
hog hunt flight. This was a helicopter pilot taking a passenger up to hunt hogs from a helicopter.
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At about 40 to 50 feet, the passenger's gun became lodged in the cyclic control. He instructed
the passenger to move his gun multiple times, but the passenger seized up and panicked. The
helicopter impacted the ground, and the fuselage and empennage sustained substantial
damage. Probable cause? The passenger's gun became lodged in the flight controls during
takeoff and his failure to remove it, which resulted in an impact with terrain.
[0:27:40] JR: Yup. That'll happen. I went back and looked at the elk incident, and there's an
entire page on captainsreport.com from 2018 that actually links to an AP article about this.
Apparently, it says, “The sound of the chopper blades and the wind kicked up by the helicopters
can be terrifying for animals.” Apparently, the damn thing just jumped up, and then crashed the
helicopter, which is just, you had to be there, I guess. They warrantied it was a research flight.
They were trapping it to put a tracking collar on it.
[0:28:15] IP: There you go.
[0:28:16] JR: Yeah, okay. Apparently, they capture hundreds of animals each year, probably a
little less by helicopter now.
[0:28:25] IP: If it works, I mean, you know. A few weeks ago, we first heard from the airline
combatants in Chicago that they were going to ramp up flights to, I think, 1.7 million daily flights,
9,000 daily flights to Kalamazoo, 275 flights to Milwaukee. They're just going to drive right up in
the highway. The FAA stepped in and said, “What are you people doing? There is no way our air
traffic controllers are going to be able to do this for you. What is wrong with you?” The airlines
did the Spider-Man meme and pointed at each other. By airlines, I mean, American and United.
Then last week, Spirit said, “You should cull the flights, but you should only do it for them. By the
way, we should get credit for the gates that we sold and now don't have that many flights.” Then
the FAA said, “By the way, we're going to cut them even more.” This week, the city of Chicago
says, “Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, wait, wait, wait, wait. What? Please don't do that. Please don't
do that.” What the FAA had said is, “We're going to cut below 2,800 flights per day at Chicago
O’Hare.” Then they said, “You know what? Upon further reflection, we're going to cut to 2,400 to
2,500, which would actually be a decrease from last summer, which averaged 2,680 flights per
day.” The city of Chicago says, “No, we want more flights, please.”
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[0:29:57] JR: Yeah. More flights means more money.
[0:29:59] IP: Interesting way. I can't imagine that the FAA is going to come in and say, “No,
we're going to cut flights below last year.” To me, that would be unexpected.
[0:30:10] JR: Yeah.
[0:30:11] IP: We will know later this month.
[0:30:13] JR: I get what the city of Chicago is doing here. They make money, regardless of the
flights, nine hours delayed or not, because there's a certain cut from each flight that airport gets
paid. I guess, if they have a budget of expenses for at least 2,800 flights, and then suddenly,
there are far fewer per day, which is exponentially that much more every month and every year,
yeah, that's a big difference, or a big gap in their budget. Yeah, cutting below even last year,
which I don't remember O'Hare being all that terrible last summer, but that would be surprising if
they lowered it even below last year. Maybe this is the FAA just bluffing a bit and saying, “We'll
turn this car right around and take all your flights away.”
[0:30:57] IP: They say, “We will control these planes right around.” You know what one way to
get rid of some flights is?
[0:31:04] JR: It's not something you would expect, and something that doesn't happen all that
often. We're going to talk about Southwest again. It has decided to completely uproot itself from
a couple major airports. One of them being Dulles in Virginia, which has been whittled down
pretty dramatically over the years. They will pull out entirely out of Dulles, but also the
Southwest experiment at Chicago O'Hare is also over, I think, in June. Only a couple months
from now. Southwest has removed itself from the difficult math equation that is O'Hare in
summer 2026, and those slots will just go back into the pool, which will hopefully not be
assigned to anyone.
[0:31:48] IP: It's entirely possible that that's what happens. That would be, to me, the logical
thing to do, which means that's not what will happen.
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[0:31:56] JR: That is not going to happen. Yeah, no.
[0:31:58] IP: We'll go from there. My favorite part about this entire Southwest leaving O'Hare is
that the parking garage at the terminal entrance, the terminal horseshoe entrance, is a giant, or
was a giant Southwest ad. A lot of fun was had this week with that particular ad. Not great
timing, as far as, you know what I mean.
[0:32:25] JR: No, no. It seems very, very sudden. Also, it doesn't even help the gate situations,
since Southwest is over in T5, where neither American or United is. No one's even going to fight
over these gates, I guess, except maybe Delta will say, “We'll take them.”
[0:32:41] IP: Yeah, maybe.
[0:32:41] JR: I don't even think Delta cares about Chicago, to be completely honest.
[0:32:45] IP: I mean, they care enough to operate some flights here and allow engine stuff.
[0:32:50] JR: A couple. Yeah.
[0:32:53] IP: Maybe they don't care all that much. This one surprised me. Atlas Air is ordering
up to 40 Airbus A350 freighters.
[0:33:05] JR: Ooh, that is interesting.
[0:33:07] IP: This is both very interesting from a who's ordering standpoint and how much
they're ordering. Atlas Air is a massive Boeing customer, operating any number of oddly and
wonderfully configured freighters. 747, 777, they have a few 767s in their fleet. They also have, I
think, a couple still passenger 747s that are used for charter work. A real Boeing airline. They've
just placed the largest A350 freighter order yet.
[0:33:47] JR: Yeah, that's the surprising part. It's not just like a little toe dip. It's a full-on
endorsement of an aircraft that has not yet rolled off the production line. Big blow, I would think,
to Boeing who has its own next generation freighter in the 777XF, I guess, you would call it. Not
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a great look for Boeing here to have such a diehard Boeing airline defect to Airbus. But the
renderings of these planes, they look pretty nice.
[0:34:11] IP: They do. They do look nice. I'm super interested to see the A350 freighter fly. Let's
not forget that they ran that contest for the livery and came up with a real litter.
[0:34:25] JR: Oh, just call it the cardboard box one.
[0:34:27] IP: Yeah. I'm really looking forward to seeing the A350 freighter fly for the first time,
which will happen this year ahead of deliveries that are scheduled to begin in 2027. Very, very
cool. Atlas for its part has a current fleet of 113 Boeing aircraft spread across 747, 777, and
767s. There you go. Atlas and Airbus, well done. Looking forward to seeing this one.
[0:34:58] JR: Good stuff.
[0:35:00] IP: Did I mention that this is 20 plus 20?
[0:35:02] JR: Yes, you did.
[0:35:03] IP: Okay, just making sure. We'll start with 20 and go from there. On the other side of
things, as far as Airbus is concerned, this is a much smaller order. Aegean says, “Never mind.
We're not going to take those two, not taken up by JetBlue A321 XLRs that we were going to
take up, because the delay to get them slipped past the summer season.” They said, “We're
already getting two next year. Why go through the trouble to get to just before next year at this
point, if we can't use them for summer?” Their launch of flights to India, Mumbai and New Delhi
specifically will have to wait until 2027, when they get their originally scheduled A321 XLRs.
[0:35:56] JR: Yeah. There's probably a bit more to this story. I think as John Walton put it, their
excuse didn't quite pass the sniff test. I don't see the release, but he said, they had blamed a
seat certification delay for these aircraft, which doesn't make any sense at all, because JetBlue
already has this aircraft certified with these seats for this aircraft that would be onboard. They're
already certified and flying every day. I've been on it. They're nice. I don't know why they
wouldn't have just outright called the route they anticipated flying these aircraft on from their hub
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out to India. If you had to draw a straight line, where are those flights going to be routed
through?
[0:36:35] IP: Oh, boy.
[0:36:37] JR: Yeah, exactly. I don't think in the least, which isn't really possible right now in
many cases. I don't know why they just wouldn't say, “Yeah, we're not taking these aircraft right
now, because our originally intended plan for it is not quite possible. Thank you. Someone else
can take up this wonderful opportunity to get this very hot aircraft that we can't take right now.”
Just very weird to not just be outright about it. Unless, there's something we're really missing.
It's very strange.
[0:37:04] IP: Both of those things, I guess, could be true in various forms. For its part, Aegean
said, “We found two other A321neos that we can get towards the end of the year. They won't be
XLRs, but it'll keep the fleet about where we want it to be.” That's an interesting –
[0:37:24] JR: Really weird.
[0:37:25] IP: - hiccup, which leads, I think, a bit more credence to John's theory here.
[0:37:28] JR: Yeah. It's also really just so strange to be in this position, where you have such a
hotly anticipated in-demand aircraft, like the 321XLR. Now we're in a position where some, they
just can't find an owner. There are already that aircraft where it's NTU followed by NTU. Now, it's
not placed at all. Very strange for such an aircraft like that to not be able to find a home.
[0:37:53] IP: I think what's interesting here is that we're not seeing that in airlines that are
ordering large numbers of these. It's airlines that are –
[0:37:59] JR: No. Just like, they will take two or four.
[0:38:03] IP: Right. Then they're like, “No, no, no. We can't do that anymore.”
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[0:38:05] JR: Maybe they'll go to – who was it last week? GOL wanting XLRs, because they
didn't want wide-bodies? Maybe it'll end up there.
[0:38:13] IP: Maybe, maybe. I'm sure then there will be another issue with some sort of seat
certification. Let's just go back to wicker chairs bolted to the floor.
[0:38:22] JR: Not GOL. Have that backwards. They were taking the 330neos. It was Azul
doesn't want the –
[0:38:27] IP: There it is.
[0:38:28] JR: - 321XLR. Oh, wait. That also doesn't make sense. Maybe just scrap that whole
line.
[0:38:35] IP: We’ll figure it out for next week.
[0:38:37] JR: If you want some. It's so weird. It was supposed to be such an impactful aircraft. It
turns out, nobody wants it. Weird. Somebody wants it.
[0:38:46] IP: Somebody wants it. We'll figure that one out. I don't have a transition for this at this
point. Actually, no, I do have a transition for this one. Speaking of airlines that say they figured it
out, how's that?
[0:38:57] JR: But probably haven't figured it out.
[0:38:58] IP: But probably haven't. Yeah. Spirit Airlines announced this week that they have a
plan. It's not earth shattering. It's not shocking. It's just, have the right number of planes, fly to
the right destinations, have better seats, make money.
[0:39:18] JR: If it were only that easy. Spirit says, it will further right size its fleet down to just 76
to 80 aircraft by the third quarter of this year. Primarily consisting of only A320 and 321CO
aircraft. Apparently, it will either have extremely minimal, or no neo aircraft, so they will be an
even more efficient airline by flying less efficient aircraft. Sure. Why not? But they do leave the
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door open for new aircraft, as soon as next year through 2030, commiserate with profitable
growth opportunities. Whatever that means. They're going to focus on their strengths airport-
wise; Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Detroit, New York City area being Newark and LaGuardia.
Apparently, they will increase utilization on peak days and reduce off peak flying. Also, add
maybe a third row of big front seats. Even though that's a thing they said they were going to do
when Seth Miller of PaxEx.Aero dug into it. They said, “Yeah, we don't actually have a plan for
this, or know what we're doing, but we're going to do it at some point.” This is very much,
apparently, early stages in a plan that hasn't been fully developed. A little surprised Southwest,
Southwest, Southwest is not adding first class, but a little surprise that spirit is going to add a
third row of big front seats. Because I have never been on a Spirit flight where more than a
couple of those seats are sold. As much as I love them, I can't imagine a reality where they
need yet another row of those seats. But if they've done the math, I'm sure it's probably the right
decision.
[0:40:59] IP: I wish them the best of luck. I mean, I continue to be skeptical that shrinking your
way to profitability is the way to go. I continue to be skeptical that pairing back your fleet of fuel
efficient aircraft that you struggled through to get and keeping these older aircraft. Yes, this
might make sense in the moment, given the geared turbofan issues. But at what point does that
carry through? I guess, if they do have what they're calling profitable growth opportunities,
taking those new aircraft between 2027 and 2030, that's going to be, I think, the crux of the
change, or maybe that's a fleet replacement rather than growth.
[0:41:45] JR: Love a favorable growth opportunity in business.
[0:41:48] IP: Right? Who doesn't? Who doesn't? Sticking in the low-cost space, or ultra-low-
cost space, Allegiant this week says that it received antitrust approval from the United States
Department of Justice for its acquisition of Sun Country.
[0:42:07] JR: Oh, that was quick.
[0:42:10] IP: Yeah.
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[0:42:10] JR: I feel like that emergence was eight minutes ago.
[0:42:14] IP: Yeah. The mandatory waiting period was terminated early. They're moving forward
ahead of time. Now it sounds like the deal is going to come together a bit early, not that anyone
thought it wasn't going to come together, though now they seem like they will be able to close
that deal and move forward.
[0:42:39] JR: Pending DOT approval as well.
[0:42:42] IP: Yes. Now it sounds like, they're saying second or third quarter of this year and
previously, they said in the second half, so what looks to be a few months earlier than they
initially expected.
[0:43:00] JR: Well, that doesn't happen often. Good for them.
[0:43:03] IP: Yeah. Before we go somewhere we can't go, Jason, let's stick with talking about
regulatory approvals where airlines in the US are asking for an extension in the amount of time
they have to retrofit their radar altimeters to counteract the interference from 5G. Previously, the
FAA had said, everybody needs to have radar altimeters installed between 2029 and 2032,
depending on what aircraft you're operating, how subject interference it is, and so on and so
forth. The aviation industry has asked to push that back, because of any number of reasons.
Take your pick. Supply chain issues, compatibility, certification, being able to manufacture that
many new radar altimeters.
What they say is a 2029 deadline does “not adequately reflect realistic production and
installation rates.” that was Lockheed Martin saying that. Among others, this was airlines for
America, Allied Pilots Association, AOPA, which is the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association,
Boeing, Garmin Gulfstream, General Aviation Manufacturers Association, National Business
Aviation Association, Regional Airline Association, RTX, which is the massive conglomerate that
includes, among others, Pratt & Whitney, Cons Aviation, and Talis, which includes all hosts of
avionics and other integrations. The industry says, maybe we're not going to be able to meet
this 2029 deadline, because that's a lot, a lot of people saying, “There's no way we're going to
be able to do this.”
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[0:45:04] JR: This time, it's good that they're planning ahead to miss a deadline, rather than
missing the deadline at the last minute. I guess, we have learned some lessons from the last
time we did this, but by the time we figure out this next 5G thing, we'll probably be on 6G, or
whatever. Though it has nothing to do with the G. It's all about the spectrum we all get in all that.
The 5G partisan misnomer. It doesn't matter what is actually happening on it. I believe it's just
that –
[0:45:35] IP: It's this particular bandwidth. Exactly, exactly. Okay, now we're going to go a bit
further afield. Well, we're not because, well –
[0:45:45] JR: We're not allowed to.
[0:45:46] IP: Maybe you are Jason, if you want, but I'm certainly not going. Though, if you want
to and can, you'll soon be able to take Air China's weekly flight between Beijing and Pyongyang.
[0:45:58] JR: Well, that's different. Apparently, finally, some of the international links that were
severed during COVID, and remember that whole thing, are being lifted as the first international
train also between China and North Korea occurred last week. I think that's a two-day overnight
journey as well. Flight’s a lot quicker. But finally starting to see some semblance of normalcy
between North Korea and China in terms of transportation. Not that normal is all that amazing
between these two countries, because it's still just a once weekly flight on Mondays, according
to Reuters. But that's a lot better than nothing I'd say, right?
[0:46:40] IP: Yeah. I mean, good for them, I guess. I mean, there have been flights that they
have not been –
[0:46:45] JR: There's one here right now to China, actually.
[0:46:48] IP: There you go. They have not been regularly scheduled. Now, I guess, we're
seeing the resumption of normalcy between the two capitals. Jason, I flagged this next story,
because I don't know how often this happens, but an appeals court, as part of reviewing a
sentence, increased the sentence.
[0:47:11] JR: What? You could do that?
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[0:47:13] IP: Apparently, at least in Tunisia, you can. The appeals court in Tunisia increased the
sentence of former Tunis Air CEO and a former union official for the airline, upholding their
convictions, and upped their sentence. They raised the sentence of the former CEO from three
to five years in prison, and the union officials from four to six years in prison. They were
convicted on charges of fraud related to fraudulent recruitment. They used forged diplomas, and
they were accused of abusing public office to obtain undue advantage.
[0:47:56] JR: Ooh. That’s no good.
[0:47:58] IP: Basically, they were scamming people, and they got caught, and then they got
tried and convicted and sentenced. Then the appeals court said, “No, more sentence.”
[0:48:10] JR: Wow.
[0:48:10] IP: I don’t know they do that.
[0:48:11] JR: Man, Tunisian justice is, I like it.
[0:48:15] IP: Yeah.
[0:48:16] JR: Wow, good stuff.
[0:48:18] IP: Sometimes, we look at an airline, and the callsign just really fits.
[0:48:28] JR: Yeah.
[0:48:29] IP: This is one of those times.
[0:48:30] JR: This is one of my favorite pieces of stupid knowledge that you just don't have
room for in your brain. But once it's in there, this one's never going to come out. A post by Seth
Miller. Hi, again, Seth. Earlier today on Bluesky, just says, I'll just read it here. “I'm not sure why
Walker Manufacturing needs its own airline and callsign, but the fact that it's using mower is
pretty great.” Apparently, Walker is a company that makes lawnmower and lawnmower
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accessories. Quite nice-looking riding mowers, I would say. But they have, like many companies
do, their own airline, presumably. Airline is probably not the right word, but their own registered
–
[0:49:12] IP: They have a few airline.
[0:49:13] JR: - airline, for they have a few aircraft for moving, probably either parts, or
equipment, or executives around. Their callsign is mower, and that is fantastic. In a reply to that
Bluesky post, apparently, I have not verified this, but I'm going to take it at its word. Martin’s,
which is the company that makes potato rolls, their call sign is Hoagie Did not know that. That is
fantastic. I guess, only a select number of listeners from a certain region of the US will even
know what that means. But then, also, I did not know, Boeing's fleet uses call sign Red Barn,
which I'm surprised. I did not know. That's new to me.
[0:49:55] IP: You didn't know that?
[0:49:57] JR: No, I did not know that. I know why it would be Red Barn.
[0:49:59] IP: Do you know why? Do you know why it’s called that?
[0:50:01] JR: I don’t know why anyone that's been to the museum of flight would know why it's
called red barn. That one's pretty cool. Didn't know that. I learned that today.
[0:50:09] IP: For our podcast listeners, Jason, and those that may not have been to the
museum, why is it called Red Barn?
[0:50:16] JR: I believe, because the Boeing company started in a red barn.
[0:50:20] IP: There you go. Easy enough, right?
[0:50:22] JR: Easy enough. Sometimes the answer is just really simple.
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[0:50:26] IP: To confirm, Martin's Famous Pastry Shop Incorporated out of Chambersburg,
Pennsylvania, their call sign is in fact Hoagie.
[0:50:33] JR: Excellent. I think we need to put you to work again, again to research some more
funny corporate callsign names. There's got to be more.
[0:50:41] IP: We don't have necessarily a funny corporate callsign, but we do have a good blog
post that I will link in the show notes about some of the more interesting callsigns, whether the
callsigns themselves are interesting, or the story behind them is a bit more interesting. I will link
that in the show notes.
Last two things that we have to talk about this week are just purely from my own enjoyment. I
hope if you're listening to this podcast and you've made it this far into the episode, they'll be for
your enjoyment as well. NASA is holding a press conference yesterday, if you're listening to the
podcast on Friday, Thursday of this week, to detail the upcoming second flight of the X-59. It will
be piloted by NASA test pilot, Jim “Clue” Less. His callsign is Clue. His last name is Les. Yeah,
they stretched real hard for their callsigns.
[0:51:34] JR: Speaking of callsigns, yeah, that one's right up there. Can you remind us what the
X-59 is, please?
[0:51:40] IP: The X-59 is NASA's supersonic demonstrator that is designed to showcase how
the aircraft can be shaped in order to fly supersonically, without making a loud sonic boom.
Instead of trying to do it by flying differently, or trying to do it with atmospheric effect, or to just
not try it at all, what the X-59 project does is it tries to shape the aircraft in order to shape the
sonic boom, or really get rid of it as much as possible. The second flight, which will take place at
a date that they have not yet set, but if they're holding a press conference, it's probably going to
be pretty soon. That will begin to expand the flight envelope, where they start taking the aircraft
up a bit higher and higher. They say, the second flight is going to look a lot like the first flight,
where they will run some tests, just to make sure everything is where they want it to be. Then
they're going to start taking it higher and higher and higher. 12,000 feet, 20,000 feet, all the way
on up to a little over Mach 1.4 at 55,000 feet. Stay tuned for that. Hopefully, next week on the
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episode, we'll have the schedule for the next test flights and we'll go from there. On the
complete opposite end of the spectrum, we're going to talk about the DC-3.
[0:53:12] JR: We love the DC-3.
[0:53:15] IP: As teased, I think, a month or so ago, when we first saw leaks start to trickle out, it
is now confirmed. We now have a release date. Lego is launching a Pan Am livery DC-3 set.
1,903 pieces. $219.99, available April 4th.
[0:53:41] JR: Where are you putting this one in the house? Will it be next to the Concord?
Below it?
[0:53:46] IP: That's a really good question.
[0:53:48] JR: I assume you're getting this, right?
[0:53:50] IP: I'm absolutely getting this.
[0:53:53] JR: these things are pretty sizable. I was pretty surprised to see it in your house, just
how big the Concord was. I'd imagine the DC-3 is a bit smaller.
[0:54:03] IP: Yeah, the DC-3 will be a bit smaller. The Concord is massive. I mean, the Concord
is 40 inches, 100 centimeters long. The DC-3 will be a bit smaller. But still not, I mean, not
insubstantial. But I am looking forward to exploring that a little bit. Maybe we'll talk a little bit
more about that after it comes out and we've had a chance to get hands on with it. Stay tuned
for more on that and follow along with my attempts to figure out where to put the thing in the
house. Because Jason makes a good point, where am I going to put it?
If you're as excited as I am, you've obviously made it to the end of the podcast and you've made
it through maybe all 362-plus episodes. So, for that, we thank you. If you've made it this far, why
not go just a little bit further and leave us a rating, review, wherever you listen to the podcast,
because that helps other people find the podcast. If you're listening to us for this long, I think
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you need to subject your friends to it as well. Tell them to listen to the podcast as well, and we'll
all go home a little bit happier.
Until next week, when I'm sure we'll have so much more to talk about, this has been Episode
362 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here as always with –
[0:55:23] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Thanks for listening.
[END]
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