Powell Talks Rates; Turkey's Historic Election

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Good morning, I'm John 0:00:10.600 --> 0:00:13.520 Tucker and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:14.960 following today, and. 0:00:14.960 --> 0:00:17.360 Karen the ryce and futures. And that record for gold 0:00:17.440 --> 0:00:20.160 comes as we kick off the second quarter. So also 0:00:20.280 --> 0:00:23.119 the first time. Markets are reacting to two important events 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.560 on Friday when they were closed for the Good Friday holiday. First, 0:00:26.600 --> 0:00:30.000 the Fed's preferred gauge of underflying inflation cool last month 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:34.320 after an even larger increase than previously reported in January. 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:37.920 And then j Pal spoke during a San Francisco Fed 0:00:38.000 --> 0:00:40.720 Bank event the Fed she are reacting to the PCEE 0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:44.760 deflator report and reiterated his outlook on rate cuts. 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:47.960 February is lower, but it's not as low as most 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:49.600 of the good readings we got in the second half 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:52.240 of last year. But it's definitely more along the lines 0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:54.520 of what we want to see. So what we said 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:56.760 is that we don't see it as likely to be 0:00:56.800 --> 0:01:02.560 appropriate that we would begin to reduce interest rates until 0:01:02.840 --> 0:01:06.840 the Committee, the Feller Open Market Committee is confident that 0:01:06.959 --> 0:01:09.960 inflation is moving down to two percent on a sustained basis. 0:01:10.240 --> 0:01:12.760 Fed cheer Jay pounces. He also wants to shrink the 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:15.000 balance sheet more without disruption. 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:19.880 Well John reactions still pouring into Friday's two major events. 0:01:19.959 --> 0:01:22.520 Sarah House, as senior economist at Wells. 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:25.720 Fargo, ultimately we heard that right now Chair Pal doesn't 0:01:25.720 --> 0:01:27.640 feel like they need to be in a hurry with 0:01:27.959 --> 0:01:31.440 cutting rates. It is a big decision, as he espoused 0:01:31.520 --> 0:01:35.039 multiple times throughout the conversation. But what we heard time 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:37.440 and again was that he views the economy as strong 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:40.240 right now, and particularly the labor market being in a 0:01:40.240 --> 0:01:43.479 good place, which does seem to afford them some time 0:01:43.640 --> 0:01:46.640 to see if inflation can come down a bit further 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:47.400 in the months ahead. 0:01:47.680 --> 0:01:51.120 Well As Fargo's senior economist Sarah House, does expect rate 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:52.560 cuts to begin in June. 0:01:52.880 --> 0:01:56.120 The next big economic report for the investors Karen comes 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:58.720 on Friday. That's with the jobs report for the month 0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:01.640 of March, and according to at Bloomberg survey of economists, 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:04.920 payrolls are seen increasing by at least two hundred thousand, 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:08.160 four or fourth straight month. The average hourly earnings are 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:10.480 projected to climb four point one percent from the same 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:13.679 month last year, and that's the smallest anel advance since 0:02:13.800 --> 0:02:16.200 mid twenty twenty one oh. 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:18.320 We want to turn to politics overseas now John. In 0:02:18.360 --> 0:02:23.120 an historic defeat for Turkish President Rejip Tayev Erdowan, Turkey 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:27.040 state broadcaster TRT is reporting the country's main opposition party 0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:31.040 defeated the Airdiwan's AK party in municipal elections for the 0:02:31.080 --> 0:02:33.880 first time since he took power more than two decades ago. 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:38.520 Airediwan told supporters his administration will continue addressing Turkey's pressing 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:39.520 economic issues. 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:43.360 He has we will focus more on urgent issues of 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:47.360 our country, especially the revival of the earthquake zone and 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:49.880 solving our economic problems. 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:52.680 And Turkish President Erdiwan said in March that this election 0:02:52.800 --> 0:02:55.320 would be his final, after he was elected to a 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:59.160 third presidential term last year. Airdiwan has also said this 0:02:59.280 --> 0:03:02.840 result won't amper his economic plans. The Turkish president has 0:03:02.880 --> 0:03:06.920 faced backlash from voters as the country experiences rampant inflation 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:10.280 and the highest borrowing costs since he swept power two 0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:13.560 decades ago. He's allowed Turkey's central Bank to raise the 0:03:13.639 --> 0:03:16.600 key interest rate to fifty percent, but has failed to 0:03:16.639 --> 0:03:20.800 reverse the trajectory of price increases and has lowered consumer sentiment. 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:23.000 Dealira weakening and early trading. 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:25.799 Well back here in the US, when Congress comes back 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:28.919 from Easter break, aid for Ukraine is on the top 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:31.559 of the to do list. Let's get more from Bloomberg's 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:32.200 Ed Baxter. 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:35.120 High Speaker Mike Johnson has promised to bring it to 0:03:35.160 --> 0:03:37.960 the floor and Congress from Mike Turner on CBS has 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.400 heard on Bloomberg says he expects it to move quickly. 0:03:40.520 --> 0:03:43.840 The Speaker has made very clear statements that when we 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:47.920 get back, it's the next top agenda after having just 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:50.800 passed all the bills that fund the federal government. I 0:03:50.840 --> 0:03:53.080 believe this is going to have overwhelming support in Congress, 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:54.880 and we'll put a bill on the President's desk. 0:03:55.320 --> 0:03:57.600 Johnson could very well face an oust move, as it 0:03:57.600 --> 0:04:00.720 has already been introduced by congress Wan Marjorie Taylor. Green 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:04.280 Democrats have said they would likely save Johnson if Ukraine 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:07.400 aid passes at Baxter Bloomberg. 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:09.320 Radio Right, and thanks now to the latest on the 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:12.560 bridge collapse in Baltimore. Ports along the East Coast are 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:16.320 modifying their operations to take in more cargo. Economists say 0:04:16.360 --> 0:04:18.960 they broadly expect the fallout from the disaster to be 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:22.039 contained as other ports work longer hours to take up 0:04:22.080 --> 0:04:25.960 the slack. Despite that, Transportation Secretary Peat Buddha Judge says 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:29.240 there's no timeline yet for reopening the Baltimore Channel. 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:31.440 It's not just that you have to remove the wreckage, 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:32.800 it's that you have to do it in a way 0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:36.320 that doesn't cause portions of the bridge that are there 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:39.240 across the water to shift. They've been under a lot 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:42.680 of compression and tension. They could behave almost like a 0:04:42.800 --> 0:04:45.120 spring if they are not expertly managed. 0:04:45.520 --> 0:04:49.719 Transportation Secretary peat Buddha Judge says the reopening the reopening 0:04:49.760 --> 0:04:52.360 of the ports safely is a major priority. He made 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:55.039 the comments on CBS's Face the Nation. You can catch 0:04:55.080 --> 0:04:58.000 the program's Sunday afternoons right here on Bloomberg Radio. 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:00.320 All right, thanks Karen. A big data breach has been 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:03.800 discovered at one of the country's largest telephone operators. We 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:06.560 get details in this report from Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger. 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:10.280 At and T says personal data from about seventy three 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:14.000 million current and past account holders was leaked onto the darkweb. 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:17.040 The company says the data, leaked about two weeks ago, 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:21.600 includes personal information such as social security numbers and appears 0:05:21.600 --> 0:05:24.800 to be from twenty nineteen or earlier. The source of 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:27.640 the data is still being investigated, and it is not 0:05:27.720 --> 0:05:30.279 known whether it came from the company or a vendor. 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:33.279 AT and T says it has reset the pass codes 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:36.680 of about seven point six million account holders. AT and 0:05:36.720 --> 0:05:40.400 T is the nation's third largest retail wireless carrier, behind 0:05:40.520 --> 0:05:44.440 Verizon and T Mobile. In February, the company experienced a 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:48.800 widespread outage that took hours to resolve, prompting an investigation 0:05:49.000 --> 0:05:52.600 by the federal government. Jeff Bellinger Bloomberg Radio. 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:55.240 Thanks Jeff as sure as of AT and T down 0:05:55.360 --> 0:05:57.719 almost two percent in early training. 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:01.880 On Asia, John A private measure of China's manufacturing expanded 0:06:01.920 --> 0:06:04.760 in March, and Bloomberg's Brian Curtis has more from Hong Kong. 0:06:05.200 --> 0:06:08.719 The Taishien Manufacturing PMI rose to fifty one point one, 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:10.960 the highest in more than a year. That was up 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:14.039 from fifty point nine in February, and it adds to 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:17.480 signals that the industrial side of the economy is stabilizing. 0:06:17.880 --> 0:06:21.480 The official PMI released on Sunday also showed activity expanding 0:06:21.600 --> 0:06:24.600 last month. That was for the first time since September, 0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:29.080 but home sales dragged the value of sales dropping forty 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:32.800 six percent from a year earlier, and that's keeping consumers 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:35.880 at bay in Hong Kong. Brian Curtis, Bloomberg Radio. 0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:41.120 All right, Brian, thank you. It it's time now for 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:42.960 a look at some of the other stories making news 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:44.719 in New York and around the world, and for that 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:47.680 were joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good morning, Good. 0:06:47.560 --> 0:06:51.000 Morning, Karen. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin det Yahoo is undergoing 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:55.200 surgery for hernia as anger mounts against his failure to 0:06:55.200 --> 0:06:58.880 bring home the hostage is still held by Hamas families 0:06:58.880 --> 0:07:02.880 of the hostages joined thousands who demonstrated in Jerusalem demanding 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:09.320 a deal to return them home. Horns blared in the 0:07:09.400 --> 0:07:12.680 largest demonstration seen so far held in Jerusalem since the 0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:16.280 war began. About one hundred thousand people were in the streets, 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:20.440 with anti government protesters and many families of the hostages 0:07:20.480 --> 0:07:23.960 now joining forces. Here in the US, the unfolding human 0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:28.080 catastrophe in Gaza is dividing the Democratic Party. The Biden 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:31.960 administration has moved in recent weeks to fulfill agreements to 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:35.760 ship more fighter jets and two thousand pound bombs to 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:39.760 Israel while still waiting for assurances from NET and Yahoo 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:45.320 not to invade Rafa inside Gaza and to increase aid shipments. However, 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:49.440 Maryland Democratic Senator Chris van Holland criticizes the way the 0:07:49.480 --> 0:07:52.560 Biden administration is handling Israel's war in Gaza. 0:07:52.640 --> 0:07:57.800 Net Yahoo continues to essentially give the finger to the 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:01.080 President the United States, and we're sending more bombs. 0:08:01.320 --> 0:08:02.360 That doesn't make sense. 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:06.280 Senator Van Holland spoke on ABC's This Week Heard Sundays 0:08:06.280 --> 0:08:11.160 on Bloomberg. Pope Francis, recovering from respiratory problems, led about 0:08:11.200 --> 0:08:14.760 sixty thousand people in Easter celebrations to make a strong 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:18.360 appeal for a ceasefire in Gaza and a prisoner swap 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:23.280 between Russia and Ukraine. Francis presided over Easter Sunday Mass 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:27.200 in Saint Peter's Square Church. Services and masses were held 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:31.000 across Baltimore on Easter Sunday to remember those who died 0:08:31.040 --> 0:08:34.240 in the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. Reverend 0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:38.920 Akoe Walker at Sacred Heart of Jesus Church remember the 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:42.120 six construction crew workers who were on the bridge and 0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:42.800 presumed dead. 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:46.240 Yes, we can rebuild a bridge, but we also have 0:08:46.320 --> 0:08:49.240 to look at the way in which migrant workers are. 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:53.040 Treated on how best we can improve their situation. 0:08:52.720 --> 0:08:55.160 As they come to the United States of America to 0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:57.079 make the United States of America better. 0:08:57.080 --> 0:08:57.360 Please. 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:01.320 Two other workers survived New York. A fire in a 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:05.079 Brooklyn church during Easter Sunday services prompted dozens of worshippers 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:07.839 to flee the burning building. About one hundred and fifty 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:11.520 people were worshiping in Our Lady of the Rosary of 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:15.400 Pompeii when smoke billowed in from a fire in the 0:09:15.480 --> 0:09:18.480 rectory attached to the rear of the church. This man 0:09:18.559 --> 0:09:19.520 was one of the worshippers. 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:22.360 Everything to go black, so everybody get up, get get up, 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:25.160 so everybody get all fed, running and everybody. 0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:28.320 A closed door had kept the fire from spreading from 0:09:28.360 --> 0:09:30.680 the rectory into the church itself. Fortunately there were no 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:34.080 serious injuries. Global News twenty four hours a day and 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:37.040 whenever you want it with the Bloomberg News Now Michael 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:39.160 Barr and this is Bloomberg Karen. 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:46.600 Sorry, Michael Barr, thank you time now for the Bloomberg 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:49.400 Sports Update, brought to you by Tri State Audi. Here's 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:50.920 John stash hour, John. 0:09:51.280 --> 0:09:54.439 Thanks Karon and CAA tournament. Four teams left headed next 0:09:54.440 --> 0:09:56.959 week into Phoenix Peril one seeds, You Come and Produe 0:09:56.960 --> 0:10:00.600 a four seed in Alabama and Cinderella and S an 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:03.120 eleven seed, a team that finished in tenth place in 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:06.240 the ACC surprisingly won the tournament. That's how they got 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:09.280 an NCAA invite, and they wins have continued. The wolf 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:12.080 Pack upset Duke, just as they did at the ACC 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:16.040 tourny seventy six sixty four, DJ burns twenty nine points. 0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:18.880 Per Due got forty from its big man Zachi Eed. 0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:21.520 He got by Tennessee seventy two to sixty six. The 0:10:21.600 --> 0:10:24.400 Bals got thirty seven in defeat. From there, All American 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:27.280 Dalton connect NC State women also going to the final 0:10:27.280 --> 0:10:30.120 four and upset of their own, beating top seed in Texas, 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:32.600 South Carolina for the second UNI row will bring a 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:35.079 thirty six to ohero record to the Final four. At 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:36.560 the Guard nixt to a ten point lead to the 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:39.480 fourth quarter, lost by one to Oklahoma City, won thirteen 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:42.440 one to twelve. Shay gilgis Alexander who won it for 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:45.400 the thunder, scoring with under two seconds left at Barkley's 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:48.559 forty points for thirty nine year old Lebron James. Lakers 0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:51.240 beat the Nets one sixteen, one oh four. The Yankees 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:53.120 are four to oh. It's only the fourth time in 0:10:53.320 --> 0:10:55.560 seventy four years they have started a season like that. 0:10:56.040 --> 0:10:59.000 Juan Soto big part in all four wins in Houston. 0:10:59.040 --> 0:11:00.480 He was at the plate with two outs of the 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:01.800 ninth to eight of a tie game. 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:03.040 There goes tours? 0:11:03.080 --> 0:11:06.480 The third fish line pasent whatlve field? How do I 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:10.199 like that? Taurus scores? The Yankees take a four to 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:12.439 three lead. Oh is he good? 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:13.199 Ho? No? 0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:14.720 We love Sodo. 0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:18.040 Wf an what's not to love? Soto hitting five twenty nine. 0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:20.880 The Mets first zero and three start in a decade 0:11:20.880 --> 0:11:23.600 in Milwaukee. One again at City Field, four to one, 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:26.079 red Sox one in Seattle, Nationals gave up three in 0:11:26.120 --> 0:11:29.160 the ninth, lost in Cincinnati. Yonick Center won the tennis 0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:31.920 in Miami. John stash Thatward Bloomberg Sports Karen. 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:34.440 John, all right, John, thank you, And futures are at 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:36.840 rising this morning, S and P. Futures up a third 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:39.280 of up percent or twenty points down. Futures up three 0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:41.959 tenths of up percent or one hundred eleven points, Nasdaq 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:44.960 futures up half percent or one hundred points, and the 0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:47.720 ten year Treasury up three thirty seconds. They yelled four 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:49.439 point one eight percent. 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:55.800 Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, 0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:58.800 and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:02.800 Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:05.640 And it's fine fourteen Wall Street. This morning marks the 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:09.160 first day of trading since we received the fans preferred 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:13.960 gauge of underlying inflation, that's the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. 0:12:14.320 --> 0:12:17.200 We also got comments from Jay Powell on Friday. Right now, 0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:19.400 let's get you set up for the trading day, and 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:22.959 I'm happy to say we're joined in studio by Lori Calvacina, 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:26.400 ahead of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Market. It's 0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:28.360 pleasure to see you. Thanks for being with us, Thanks 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:32.560 for having me Core PCE cooled. I guess that's the takeaway. 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:34.960 Is this what traders have been waiting for? 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:37.400 So Look, I don't think there are any major surprises 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:39.840 here from my end. I mean, we've generally been looking 0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:43.760 for a moderation and inflation At RBC, our guys cautioned 0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:46.200 me very early, you know, in the year, late last year, 0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:47.800 that there are going to be some bumps in the road. 0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:50.000 And for now the thesis still seems to be intact, 0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:51.760 and our guys still think we're headed for June. 0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:55.200 Cuts, June cuts and what after that? How many cuts 0:12:55.280 --> 0:12:55.600 this year? 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:58.240 So we originally had been looking for five as a house. 0:12:58.559 --> 0:13:01.800 They've dialed it down now to three. I will say, 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:03.880 our guys were never in the March camp, so I 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:06.120 think we've had less distance to travel to get to 0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:08.800 where our current assumptions are. So we haven't really been 0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:11.520 you know, overly, you know, kind of negative reacting to 0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:13.760 some of the negative adjustments that have happened, kind of 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:16.560 the dialing down of expectations. But they think the FED 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:18.240 wants to get started and then we'll go slow. 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:21.600 The FED has a gigantic balance sheet. They're starting to 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:24.560 trim it. Should we we be worried about that? Will 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:26.920 that have much of an impact in markets? Or can 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:28.880 they handle that in such a way that it's going 0:13:28.960 --> 0:13:30.359 to have a minimal impact? 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:32.559 You know, It's funny. I'm a little bit of a 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:35.040 data nerd, and we had done some analysis trying like 0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:37.600 that lot. I know, I know, it's kind of my thing, 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:39.720 but you know, there had been a period of time 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:42.160 post GFC where the FED balance sheet really seemed to 0:13:42.160 --> 0:13:44.000 be driving the pe multiple in the S and P 0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:46.880 five hundred that really broke down last year. I think 0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:49.040 the FED has done a good job of sort of pushing, 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:50.880 you know, the balance sheet to sort of a side. 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:53.160 From an equity market perspective, it's just not as in 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:54.680 focus and as much of a driver as. 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:57.080 It used to be and to the quarter much in 0:13:57.160 --> 0:14:00.280 terms of rebalancing and portfolios and how how is that 0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:01.160 impacting things? 0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:02.120 So look, I. 0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:03.760 Think at the end of the quarter, you know, we 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:04.920 saw some funny moves. 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:05.640 You know. 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:07.880 From my perspective, what I thought was interesting was that 0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:10.560 the Rustle two thousand had a strong finish, and so 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:13.720 the idea that we've really been looking for signs that 0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:16.440 the leadership rotation in the market is going to get underway. 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:18.400 To me, that was the most sort of interesting kind 0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:20.080 of short term stuff we saw at the end of 0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:23.200 the quarter. And I think this market is itching to rotate. 0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:25.880 Anything I put out on the mag seven, I feel 0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:29.280 like that's the chart everybody looks for. I think there's 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:31.360 a lot of you know, sort of concern that we've 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:33.840 had some false starts on that leadership rotation, But I 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:36.080 think investors are ready to do something different. So that's 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:38.160 what I'd be looking for going leadership rotation. 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:39.320 That's a healthy sign for. 0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:41.480 Marcus, I think it is. I think we're due for 0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:43.720 one big catch up trade in the market from you know, 0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:46.320 kind of everything outside of the MAG seven, whether it's 0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:48.520 small cap, whether it's you know, kind of the non 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:51.200 tech sectors. If you look at the PE and the 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:54.240 market X the MAG seven, it's trading around sixteen times. 0:14:54.280 --> 0:14:56.760 The MAG seven's been trading between twenty seven and twenty 0:14:56.760 --> 0:14:59.520 eight times on a forward PE and kind of a 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:02.400 round pas peak. So I think there's room for the 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:04.280 rest of the market to kind of catch up. I'm 0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:06.240 not saying we have to get quite that over valued, 0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:07.920 but there's room for the rest of the market to 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:08.400 make a move. 0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:12.160 Do you see conflicting cross currency in markets? What are they? 0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:14.400 If you do so, I would say on the positive side, 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:17.720 GDP forecasts have moved up tremendously since the start of 0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:19.720 the year, kind of moved us back into a range 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:22.880 that's typically favorable for stocks. From one you know, kind 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:25.120 of a sluggish range that was anticipated to start the 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:27.280 year as lousy for stocks. We've moved out of that. 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:31.040 But sentiment is pretty enthusiastic right now, whether you're looking 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:35.000 at AAII survey or the weekly CFTC data. So I 0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:37.040 do expect to get a pullback at some point in time, 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:38.440 but you know, I've been looking for one for a 0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:39.800 while and we haven't gotten it yet. 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:43.040 You're a little more neutral on risk. Does that indicate 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:45.800 some degree of bearishness on your part? That's thirty seconds. 0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:48.240 Yeah, I would say, Look, we're not in the bear camp. 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:50.280 We do feel like the market is fairly priced at 0:15:50.280 --> 0:15:52.280 this particular moment, though, all right, just give. 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:54.960 Me a preview of earnings. Ten seconds. 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:57.400 So, look, it's going to be all about margins and 0:15:57.440 --> 0:16:01.120 how good companies are at expanding them. We're modeling flat, 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:02.359 but there's room for upside. 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:05.600 Okay, And your year end price target for the S 0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:07.960 and P five and I'll throw one more in for you, lord. 0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:09.600 Okay, what is it. 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:12.240 We're at fifty three hundred and we just nudged that up. 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:14.360 Some of our models can get us to around fifty 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:15.920 four hundred or a little bit higher. 0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:20.080 Glory Calvesina ahead of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital 0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:23.400 Markets in studio with us. 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