The Show: Coaching Changes, Way-Too-Early Wide Receiver Rankings, and More

00:00:00
Speaker 1: You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football show, which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch the show live this offseason, you can head to the Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF will be live each Wednesday at noon Eastern without further ado. Here's this week's episode.

00:00:32
Speaker 2: Welcome in. Welcome in David Kitchen, COO of Late Round with the JJ CEO of Late Round and JJ, we're here, We're here.

00:00:44
Speaker 1: We made it. That was a stressful time, even more stressful for you, but it was. It was stressful even just like awaiting the inevitable, and it was. It's one of those things, man, where we we and Charlotte got really really lucky because I guess the atmospheric temperature was just the right temperature for us to get sleet instead of ice. And so we got you know, the kid, my daughter's been out of school all week so far.

00:01:11
Speaker 3: But we you know, that's just the roads that are the problem.

00:01:14
Speaker 1: There wasn't that many power outages, nothing like that Nashville, you guys were like aside from like you know, Mississippi and such that got it really really really bad where you know, thoughts and prayers, saw the folks down there, But Nashville was like the center of this in terms of like a major metropolitan area that got hit. It was really where you were at.

00:01:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, still a bunch of people in Nashville without power. Myself, we were thirty two hours without power, and.

00:01:46
Speaker 1: I don't know, I couldn't handle that.

00:01:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, But the girls, the kids, they they loved it. You know, we it was an adventure for them. It was kind of like glamping. You know. I felt like I I was the protector, you know, the provider. You know, there's a little bit of just that instinct that that kicks in. So you know, we say we did it, and we also, in doing that, appreciate things we take for granted. Yes, like like heat, yeah, right, like.

00:02:19
Speaker 1: Like not being in forty five degree whether all the time in your home, right.

00:02:24
Speaker 2: And just it just made me think, like people people say they want to go back to like the old days, do you really like do you think about like do you really want to go back to the old days?

00:02:33
Speaker 1: Because I mean, to me, to me, peak living is probably if we're being on no, you know what, I'm not gonna even say it.

00:02:39
Speaker 2: You're gonna you're gonna say the nineties. I know I was.

00:02:42
Speaker 1: I was, But then I'm like, I'm like, the Internet is too important for my job and for me in my life that I can't just go back to that time that I think anyone would just say, get me back to when I was a child, as long as you had a decent childhood, right yeah.

00:02:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, so uh so, Yeah, I'm glad that we had a generator. We're here and hopefully everyone out there is safe and warm. JJ, you'vest some more snow coming up this weekend.

00:03:12
Speaker 3: We're just I get to run it back this weekend, manute.

00:03:14
Speaker 1: But the nice part is that the snow that we're forecasted to get, well maybe forecasted to get this weekend, is just snow.

00:03:21
Speaker 2: It's not and super fluffy.

00:03:23
Speaker 1: Yes, it's literally a normal snowstorm or nothing, and.

00:03:28
Speaker 2: Honestly, into one ratio. I've already researched Charlotte's snow probabilities. Yeah you have, yeah, because usually it's ten to one, I figure, but this is like it's going to be extra powdery. Yeah, it's a fourteen to one.

00:03:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's like a like in almost any circumstance, I would be very excited for it, for the kids and stuff, and I am to a degree, but I'm flying out on Monday to go to San Francisco for the super Bowl. And now I'm like, we got a lot of content planned, We have a lot of just stuff planned in general, and I'm like, I don't want to be snowed in for that. So hopefully it's not. It's good enough that I can play with the kids this weekend. There's not even football on this weekend, so I can. You know, it's even better to, you know, go outside and just hang out with the family. But there is the fear of me not being able to fly out to California next week.

00:04:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, I told you. We'll just take it day by day, take it day by day.

00:04:20
Speaker 1: I get anxious about that kind of thing.

00:04:21
Speaker 2: I know. If you missed the first day though, not a big deal. I promise I won't push the live button on the show. We'll just postpone it to the next day.

00:04:30
Speaker 3: Oh man, Yeah, it'll we'll see, because we do.

00:04:32
Speaker 1: We do have stuff planned for you guys.

00:04:34
Speaker 2: We do have stuff planned for next week. I'm looking forward to it, hoping that everything works out. Just a reminder though we'll be posting some stuff. I'm sure on X will be on here, but I'll be posting some behind the scenes stuff on our Patreon too for our members. So looking forward to that. JJ. We've had a bunch of coaching changes, and you're also in prospect mode.

00:05:05
Speaker 1: Oh, I'm in full blown prospect mode right now.

00:05:07
Speaker 2: Yes, right now, So take us take us to like how you're doing right now with like everything going on.

00:05:15
Speaker 1: There's a lot going on. Yeah, I have revamped the ZAP models. I've revamped the year two ones definitely as well. There's a lot of cool stuff that's changed in the zapp models year over year. I do this every year where I, you know, you get new testing data because there's another year that kind of gets thrown in there because another class, draft class has officially played three years in the NFL, which is what I'm testing against, and so I like to kind of just make sure that I'm you know, the NFL evolves and draft classes evolved, and the archetype of player evolves, and I'm making sure the model is capturing things properly. So I go in and I tweak the model both at running back and wide receiver. Every single year, and so I did that, you know, at the beginning of January, worked on that some of the cool things that's changed. The big thing, I'd say, the interpretation of the data is going to change on the consumer's end. You guys can see all of that within the guide, Like the scale of scoring is a little bit different than it's been over the last four years. But one of the big things that was really evident for me was when I was analyzing different areas of the draft. There are different metrics, so like you know, I've used pro rated reception share, for instance, for running backs for years, and it's a really good signal when you layer on top draft capital and some of these other factors. But it's actually a way better signal for Day one and day two picks, but not as much of one for Day three, whereas Day three, you know, something like yards per team play might get more signal than what you would get from an earlier round pick. And all of those things and doing that testing and working through it has gotten the model to be more predictive at both running back and wide receiver, you know, than it was in the past. That's my goal every year is to make this thing better and better because I'm sitting here analyzing new data, thinking about how I can calculate things a little bit differently, and it's this giant puzzle to kind of put together.

00:07:09
Speaker 3: And then eventually I have to stop. Eventually I have.

00:07:11
Speaker 1: To be like, Okay, I got other stuff I gotta do. I can keep trying to get this thing to, you know, a great level, and hopefully it is at a great level, but even better.

00:07:21
Speaker 3: You know, you can always make something better.

00:07:23
Speaker 1: But I have to stop at some point because there's so much, so many other things to do. And then, like the year two model's gotten a little bit of a revamp as well, but all of that modeling is done. Now it's more putting it all together in this prospect guide, which we will have pre order sales out there, you know, a link for you guys here shortly, and eventually we'll we'll announce all of that. But yeah, man, I mean there's that, there's the Super Bowl next week and us going out to San Francisco. You know, Godula is doing amazing.

00:07:50
Speaker 2: Yeah.

00:07:51
Speaker 1: The newsletter Goadula sent out a newsletter yesterday or today, sorry, finished it this morning. Yeah, Yeah, on how how coaching changes in packed NFL offenses and Kitchen's responds his own. This is the COO in Kitchen. He responds and says, this need this should have been Paywald.

00:08:09
Speaker 2: I said, it's so good, it feels like it needs to be Paywald. I'm it's going to be.

00:08:14
Speaker 1: That's not how we roll, kid.

00:08:15
Speaker 2: I know, it's not always a compliment as to how good. Yeah, it was just a free newsletter and people get when they sign up.

00:08:22
Speaker 1: For FDULA is really good at breaking things down and making it consumable. And you know, it's the stuff that we used to do at Number Fire all the time, and we're doing that in the newsletter now pretty consistently. I'm hoping to get one out tomorrow on sort of like an extension of the Death of the Wide Receiver two episode that I did, you know in the podcast feed last week, you know, a week and a half ago. There's some more stuff. I'm gonna be talking to Matt Harmon later today on Reception Perception on that show about some of that. But definitely subscribe, is what I'm saying. Late Round dot com click newsletter. It's free, just give us your email address. I'm not saying that because we're just gonna mark it to you all the time. I'm saying that because we're trying to push really good content to you guys in article form, and that's what I think. Godula has already shown to be a really good value add this month, you know, with with him starting at late round.

00:09:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, Godula adding value. Me, I'm apparently taking away value because it's you know, Senior Bowl going on right now. Yes, and I'm a Vandy fan, so I stand for Diego Pavia. He can't. He comes in at five to nine and seven eighths. I made one post about his height related to Bryce Young and Kyler Murray, and I'm getting all sorts of responses, including one from the CEO of the company says, this is not a late roundly.

00:09:44
Speaker 1: Round take, isn't isn't he kind of a turd?

00:09:46
Speaker 2: Too?

00:09:47
Speaker 1: Like?

00:09:47
Speaker 2: Is it not a turd?

00:09:49
Speaker 1: Isn't that part of the I mean, especially especially when you compare in contrast who the one on one and this draft is going to be to have, Like.

00:09:56
Speaker 3: My gosh, could you guess your opposite personalities?

00:09:59
Speaker 2: There's that thin line between like confidence and arrogance, and sure he walks the line over there, but I.

00:10:04
Speaker 3: Think I think he's passed the line, buddy, but.

00:10:07
Speaker 1: He's back to that.

00:10:08
Speaker 2: He's he's good for the team. If like, he's not a diva when it comes to the team. He never puts himself like over the team. And if you watch him play, he never complains like out on the field.

00:10:21
Speaker 1: I appreciate both of those. Now, if you want to criticize judgment, I don't. I don't know the guy want.

00:10:27
Speaker 2: To criticize the social media stuff. He might have like some sort of you know, short QB complex. I don't know. But anyways, I'm enjoying the prospect stuff and even just you seeing you and Gadula talk about model stuff makes me excited for the guide, which will be available to pre order in February. And with that, JJ, let's get onto today's news, today's fantasy news. All right, we've got it's uh just talking about survival. We survived, so that's in the past. We were talking about that conference review though, JJ, I got to watch on my phone.

00:11:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, did you watch? I watched.

00:11:13
Speaker 2: I watched most of it via a shout out to YouTube TV and when I got serviced, but I was like charging up my phone so I could watch it. So I'm Yeah, that's.

00:11:23
Speaker 1: What I was worried about. I said that I got I had my generator solely for electronics as fast this past weekend, all ready to go.

00:11:30
Speaker 2: So I did. I did watch it, especially the secondad first game. I was still kind of setting things up. But what was your general thought process on the games?

00:11:39
Speaker 1: I mean, I thought they were both good games in terms of just like drama and you know, you had you had enough of that. I kind of want, like I was kind of rooting for the Rams to get one more possession at the end of that game, to just see what they could do and or at least longer possession in that game, I think. I mean, look, I think that the NFC game was determined by the fact that Sam Darnold played probably the best game of his career, which was really really cool to see, you know, after the stuff that he's gone through from a from a career standpoint, so you know, that was really fun. And I think the story of the other game, unfortunately, the story and the main story is weather right, and how that game just kind of went to the to the crapper in the second half because neither team and I love how I'm saying that after last week.

00:12:28
Speaker 3: I I you know, was was was very pro to ask.

00:12:30
Speaker 2: You about the weather. Yeah, yeah, it did affect it. It just wasn't for me. It just wasn't as fun because like both teams are punting. Oh, I agree, it so.

00:12:39
Speaker 1: The whole the whole game. I mean, the Patriots just like did not even the they didn't attempt to pass towards the end of that game, and in situations when you would have almost all day given given Drake may I, I think that the I tweeted about this, but the AFC was pretty weak this year, as we know, and and no matter the path, no matter how it would have gone down, people would have complained about how things went down for New England because it's New England and you know they've gone so many years without having success in that poor guy, yeah, poor fan base. But the one thing that I will say is that like, it's not like New England is a bad like in the end, right, even if they had an easier path or even you know, whatever argument you want to make in the end, it's hard to argue that there are many other teams in the AFC that would have been better representations of that conference this year. You know, I think New England as a team is strong. I sent a tweet out that's gotten a lot of run that at least this team has Mike Rabel and he's a lot more likable than Bill Belichick, and the majority of people are like, very much in agreement because Mike Rabel, objectively from like a media perspective, is in like what we see on TV and stuff, way more likable than than Bill Belichick. I mean, like even the comments that he made when he was in Tennessee about what he would do to himself if he won a Super Bowl. You know that, right. Yeah, he's a player, and he's a players coach. He's a likable dude, and so and Drake May. I mean, I love Drake May for for many reasons. So I'm I'm very excited about that team itself. You know, the fan base is spoiled, and and anyone who says that we're jealous in the end.

00:14:22
Speaker 2: You know, it is funny, though it is funny, it's crazy. If you look at this right here, I'm posting a graphic right now. This is this is funny. It's Wheaton Brando posted the Patriots schedule of who all they've faced and it's just fired coach, fired, coach, fired coach, NFC South fired coach, NFC South fired, coach, fired, coach, fired coach, NFC South, Jets, Bengals fired coach, fared, coach, fired coach, Jets fired coach. Like that is hilarious objective.

00:14:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, And then they played, and then they played, you know, and the championship. But here's my my overall thing though, is that like you can still judge a team performance and adjust for strength of schedule and still see that New England is probably a top five to six team in the NFL, And we see there have been worse representations from a team perspective in the Super.

00:15:11
Speaker 3: Bowl historically, like way worse, right.

00:15:13
Speaker 1: And that's where I stand where I'm like, was the journey easier?

00:15:17
Speaker 2: Sure?

00:15:18
Speaker 1: Yeah, but like what journey? Like number one, they just played the schedule that they were given, So like what do we You can sit here and say that like and hate on.

00:15:26
Speaker 3: New England, but they did what they had to do and they got it done.

00:15:29
Speaker 1: And if you feel so strongly about it, go to DraftKings and put some money down on Seattle, you know, if if you feel I mean I did I took Seattle minus four and a half. But I'm not gonna be surprised if New England puts up a game in the Super Bowl. Like, I don't think that they're that bad of a team the way that other people view them. If if if Seattle gets Sam Darnold though playing the way that he did in the NFC Championship, they're gonna they're gonna win that game. I mean, he was, he was lights out in that game. Klint Kubiak called a great game. I mean, I the Seattle defense played one of their worst games of the season against against the Rams this past week, and they still Seattle still got that w. And so it's gonna be tough for New England to get the win for sure. But I just don't think that they're an unworthy team to be, uh you know in uh in the Super Bowl representing a weak AFC from twenty twenty six or twenty twenty five to twenty twenty six.

00:16:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's as Titans fan will like attest and also Jets fans like seeing Vikings fans any fan that had Donald as their their quarterback at yeah there's one point. Yeah, Panthers like, yeah, good for Sam Donald and good for Rabel. Like Titans fans, they're not I think they're not mad at Vrabel.

00:16:44
Speaker 1: No.

00:16:44
Speaker 2: I think that the.

00:16:46
Speaker 1: Franchise that should feel like the fan base that should feel the most gutted right now has to be Minnesota. Yeah, Like it's not the Jets. Like the Jets just didn't have the infrastructure for Sam Donald to grow up in and like same with Carolina whatever, Like it just wasn't there. Minnesota was really good last year and then they decided to move on, and that is that could end up really haunting them like that, that could end up being a really really big deal.

00:17:09
Speaker 2: All Right, So you've already kind of given your prediction for what's going to happen in the super Bowl.

00:17:13
Speaker 1: Look, yeah, but what breakdowns though next week? As long as you know, I'm I'm out there in San Francisco.

00:17:19
Speaker 2: All right, Let's talk about some coaching moves, including one that just happened. Yeah, last hour if you're if you're watching this last hour, if you're listening to it yesterday. But Brown's hire Todd Monkin. Yeah, this whole Brown situation has been hilarious. People dropping out, you know, not wanting to coach this franchise. That has a Pro Bowl quarterback. I don't understand it, but JJ, your thoughts.

00:17:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, I see that, I hear. My thoughts are, this is kind of out of left field. I thought it was going to be you know, Shieldhauser or maybe Jim Schwartz, one of those two. But I think Munkin was like number three from an odds perspective to land that job. I just wasn't following that super closely because it's Cleveland, and uh, you know, I'll just I'll just react when it actually goes down. I can understand why they made the higher I don't think that a team like that should necessarily go in this direction. But uh, Todd Munkin historically has been a tight end heavy kind of coach and offensive coordinator. I mean we've seen that throughout his time at every single stop that he's made. And so you look at the personnel that Cleveland has and you're like, okay, you go from Stefanski, who also has been I mean, Stefansky was ahead of the curve in the way that that offenses are kind of operating right now with these heavy sets and and a lot of twelve personnel, a lot of tight end use and to me, it's like, well, then why'd you get rid of Stefanski in the first place, you know, like if you're if you're gonna go Stefanski to Monken, there are definitely differences, don't get me wrong, But from like a personnel standpoint, and just like a I mean, Stefansky has the the resume as well, et cetera. To me, if you're gonna get rid of an established coach like that, I would I would likely just go with like a like a Shielhouse or someone who's like just a completely unknown, a complete unknown who could maybe you know, that high risk, high reward of yeah, they could be horrible, but they also have that crazy ceiling of maybe it is an O'Connell or a or a McVeigh type type coach where you feel good about them for the next like decade plus, right. And so that's where I stand kind of on the Monk and stuff. I think Munkin's not a bad coach.

00:19:33
Speaker 2: Uh.

00:19:34
Speaker 1: You know, a lot of people will probably trash him from that perspective because they weren't able to like get over the hump with Lamar, you know, in the playoffs and stuff like that. But I don't I don't think he's a bad coach. I don't think he's a bad offensive coach.

00:19:46
Speaker 2: So you know, they gone fantasy football, fantasy football.

00:19:49
Speaker 1: I'm very excited for Harold Fannon, Like I think it's a good hire for Harold Fannon in particular. And you know it's not like I wasn't high on Fannin already, so uh, it's exciting for him. U And as you noted, they have a Pro Bowl quarterback, so we'll see see what happens there. But there was a really funny tweet that that I saw Ben Sallick tweet out. He said, truly hilarious outcome from where Monkin and the Browns were six years ago. And there's an article from Zach Jackson who covers the Browns in The Athletic, And in that article it says, quote Mouncin would spend time on the field before games telling because Mounkin was coaching Cleveland. Yeah, and he said it says Munkin would spend time on the field before games telling opposing coaches how bad things were with the Browns, calling the team.

00:20:35
Speaker 3: A total mess. And so this was what like six, six or seven years.

00:20:39
Speaker 2: Ago, So things can change.

00:20:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, things can change. They clearly just wanted a different voice.

00:20:44
Speaker 1: I think a lot of these these franchises and teams, like the Steelers did the same thing where I think that this we haven't talked about the Mike McCarthy higher. I'm assuming that was next maybe.

00:20:53
Speaker 2: Like, yeah, so you see it's Brady and the three ms. The three ms are Mentor, McCarthy and Monkin.

00:20:59
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, well go to Mintor. I think Mintor is a pretty smart choice. I mean, he has a lot of there's a lot of praise with him, and I think that Baltimore, as long as they hire the right kind of OC can can can get back to where they need to be. I've said this many times before. Coaching hires to me, you know, if you're sitting on your ear, if your mom's basement, or if you're.

00:21:22
Speaker 3: Sitting on the couch, Like, it's really hard to analyze these things.

00:21:25
Speaker 1: Like it's very vibes based and field based, and so what I say about coaches is just a general you know, vibe and field. But I don't think that it's necessarily like definitely going to go a certain direction because we just don't know what it's like on that team in that locker room and with that front office. The McCarthy thing, though you know there's an actual background with him, you know, there isn't that with mintor as much. You know, from like a head coaching standpoint, the McCarthy thing is the definition of the dude of that old guy who opens up the President's the exact same shirt that he's wearing, you know, like it's and it's it's You're going from a defensive Mike Tomlin to an offensive Mike Tomlin with Mike McCarthy hypothetically, right, I'll say this, The talk about him, like the the the narrative surrounding McCarthy right now is that he's this like quarterback guru and whisperer, right like that The Steelers got him because an offensive mind. He is an offensive mind. So I'm I'm from a Steelers perspective, it's smart to go in the offensive direction. Okay, so they got that right in my opinion, they needed to do that and then just higher good defensive coordinator, You're good to go. But this idea that he's this quarterback whisperer, like, maybe that's true. But if your evidence that you're pointing to is that, like Aaron Rodgers was good under Mike McCarthy. He had Brett Farb then obviously Dak Prescott played a little bit better under Mike McCarthy. The Steelers don't have Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott and Brett. I know that there's a history in like the nineties and stuff too of him playing, you know, coaching quarterbacks and such, but like at some point you I'd be like this, the game right now is nothing like the game back then. So I don't really want to go down this route and just give him the benefit of the doubt and just be like, yeah, man, he's a quarterback whisper. If he was a quarterback whisperer, why didn't he have a job? You know, like if he's if he's just like, that's the most important position in the game, if not all of sports, And if he's a whisperer for that position, you would think that.

00:23:18
Speaker 3: More teams would be lining up to get Mike McCarthy.

00:23:20
Speaker 1: Now, with all that being said, I thought his presser was really touching and it's cool to see.

00:23:27
Speaker 2: In the you know, in the late round, Discord seemed like you were maybe.

00:23:32
Speaker 3: Them all in after that, maybe warm enough to him.

00:23:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I mean it's it's cool about the parade starting at his where he grew up on.

00:23:40
Speaker 2: You know.

00:23:42
Speaker 1: I I like the the the yser vibes and stuff. It's fun. Like the Steelers have done that. They drafted Kenny Pickett, which is a huge mistake, you know obviously, uh the one time that they did this where they like went with that local guy who uh you know, ended up working out. I mean I guess like technically, like a Joey Porter junior is working out right now, and he's you know, from Pittsburgh. He actually went to the same high school that I went to. But James Connor is one that you know, in recent memory that we can look at and be like, oh yeah, that was a cool story. And he actually did work out for the team, and the team then gave him the boot, and he's been just as good outside of Pittsburgh as he was in Pittsburgh. But I don't know, man, I mean, like I think that this point, this is my final say about the McCarthy higher. I think the hire actually does point to Mike Tomlin leaving himself as opposed to actually getting let go, where there were rumors like that's what the story says, you know, but there are rumors that you know, no, they definitely had a mutual you know, like no, I think the Steelers wanted to keep Mike Tomlin and he was like, I can't do this anymore. I think all that stuff is now true based on the fact that, like they went out, they got Mike McCarthy. He clearly wasn't just like their top choice that they had been thinking about all along. And I think that's the case for a lot of these teams where you know, the Browns get rid of Sefanski, they get Todd Mounkin. Is that really their top choice? Probably not? You know, is is a buffalo with Joe Brady, who we haven't even touched on. Was that their top choice? Probably not? You know. I think that they're going through this interview process and teams are realizing that maybe these candidates aren't the best, and they're hiring within or they're at least considering strongly someone within or someone from complete left field. But the Joe Brady thing, I don't even know. I thought that was probably the worst hire of this cycle.

00:25:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like why, it's like you're just you're just firing someone to have as a scapegoat when really he's not the one. If you're hiring just the offensive coordinator, Yeah, if.

00:25:46
Speaker 1: The problem is that they can't get over the hump in the playoffs, then you're going and you're getting a guy who is part of that problem. Yeah, you know that's my issue and I Joe Brady. When he took over as offensive coordinator, they became much more run heavy, They lean more on James Cook, and they they have been a lot better in terms of, like from like an EPA per play standpoint with Joe Brady than they were pre Joe Brady. The issue is, if you know, I don't know what kind of voice he had from like a personnel standpoint and such, but I know that now, uh, they've announced and they've talked about how they want him to be involved in all of those discussions, and hopefully that means that he gets some more of those guys on offense and that wide receiver. Otherwise, this offense running through a slot guy during an era where slot receivers aren't as important and vital is just not not it. That's just not the way that you should be running an offense.

00:26:41
Speaker 2: Greg Rosell that if I'm Joe Brady. I'm absolutely trying to hire Sean McDermott as my DC. It's a good scheme fit with the players they have.

00:26:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's exactly how I mean.

00:26:51
Speaker 1: Like, I just think, like I said this, from the start, I thought McDermott deserved one more year and to see if he could bring it together. There were some obvious injuries and slow It's just just poor team building going on with Buffalo, and I thought McDermott ended up towards the end of the season getting enough out of that defense given the personnel as well, and so you know, they clearly wanted to move on. I just don't think that Joe Brady is necessarily the answer. But again, coaching stuff has a lot of volatility, a lot of variants. We're not in the locker room. We don't know how these guys motivate, and it could turn out great, who knows.

00:27:25
Speaker 2: From Bill's Drama to Bill Drama in a second. But before that, we got some offensive coordinators that are worth mentioning. Tommy Reese to the Falcons, Bobby Slowick to the Dolphins. Remember he was like the heart throb candidate for Houston until they just tanked last year and then Brian Daball to the Titans. So those three hires have been made, and curious as to any thoughts you have regarding that.

00:27:56
Speaker 1: My overall thought, I'm actually thinking more of I mean, we already talked about like Mike McDaniel with with although this says giants up here should say Chargers right with Yeah, harbar McDaniel. Yeah, we're already talk about McDaniel. I think that's gonna be amazing. Like I am, I'm gonna be so bullish on the Chargers offense next year. It's gonna be ridiculous. So I'm very excited about that. I don't mind Brian Dable. Actually I thought that he might have even been a better candidate than like a Joe Brady for the Bills, just given what he was able to like he was.

00:28:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought they were going to hire him.

00:28:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, he wasn't a bad you know, call for uh or he wasn't a bad guy to help develop Josh Allen and such. But I will say I think the Broncos are you know, they get rid of Lombardi. I think they're gonna promote Davis Webb because Davis Webb's been such a hot commodity seemingly on the market, and so that's what I'm expecting over the next twenty four hours or so.

00:28:49
Speaker 3: It seems like no one wants the Eagles job because.

00:28:52
Speaker 1: They have that run game coordinator or something that that wants to stay there and they want him to stay there, and so therefore the office coordinator wouldn't have as much control. That's what the rumor is out there. So we'll see the chiefs are really strange, just going back and forth from coordinator to coordinator and just going back to Eric b enemy. But I think that the the upside with the enemy would be the potential for more down the field throws.

00:29:13
Speaker 3: We saw a little bit more of that this past year.

00:29:15
Speaker 1: Mahomes did have a higher A DOT, but I think he's a better fit for what they do than what Matt Naggie was doing beforehand. And then you know, Zach Robinson, I think is a pretty neutral kind of move for Tampa Bay overall.

00:29:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the Eagles situation sometimes it's not about who they hire, it's like who they are not hiring, Like who's not taking the job, who keeps on withdrawing their names. So we'll be interesting there and before we move on really quick thoughts on Bill Belichick.

00:29:49
Speaker 1: I just think that there's a lot of ego that goes on with voters and journalists, and you know, it's just there's so it's just so tiring, like you not as special as you think you are. And the same thing goes with like general media access to certain you know, there's there's just a lot of like, oh, you can't do that, you know, like the stuff in Jacksonville after Liam co you know, the Liam Cohen presser where the one reporter basically like thanked him for having like a great season and all these reports. The only people that were truly mad about that were other reporters, you know. And there's a lot of that that goes on in that space. And no shade to the people who do that, because we need reporters to be able to get us the information that then we create content off of. And so I'm very appreciative of that. But look, man, with you're just reporting stuff just like we're just talking fantasy football.

00:30:42
Speaker 2: Like like meteorologists or just trying to predict the weather.

00:30:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, like like you got to get the egos out of here. If someone has like a crazy ego as a reporter, as a meteorologist, whatever the case may be. And I think that's what's driving the Bill Belichick stuff and him not getting in the Hall of Fame.

00:30:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, get that out of here.

00:30:59
Speaker 3: It's so it's so ridiculous, it's so dumb. We don't need that.

00:31:03
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick is a Hall of Fame head coach. Everyone with a brain knows that that's the case. And you know, if you're gonna hurt him and that eligibility based on the cheating stuff and the scandals and whatnot, a lot of those scandals and it's hard for me to even say because I grew up because this is like peak when I was a Peak fan. H A lot of those scandals are very overblown and it's just not And I what I'm getting ready for Kitchens is Tom Brady.

00:31:31
Speaker 2: Tom Brady.

00:31:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, because if you're going to use this logic for Belichick, what kind of logic are you going to use for Tom Brady? And if Tom Brady is not a first ballot Hall of Famer, then officially closed that freaking institution because that is ridiculous.

00:31:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I know. And and Bill Belichick, you know, he talked about going to Cantons, someone who just went to Canton with you at the FFXPO. You know, he has a reverence for the Hall of Fame, so he understood the implications of it when they let him know. And I think, I think the pendulum will swing back, and it'll be in next year and there will be people that you know, people don't really feel sorry for Bill Belichick, but now they're starting to. So maybe this will just give him a little more compassionate.

00:32:12
Speaker 3: Maybe maybe it helps us his image a little bit.

00:32:14
Speaker 2: Exactly exactly, all.

00:32:16
Speaker 1: Right, today's data. All right, we're gonna be talking way too wide receiver rankings in a second. So I'm gonna do the same thing I did last week, where I looked at how players perform versus ADP expectation year or this past year. So every player at a certain ADP has an expected points per game output or value that's just based on history, and so you can take that and then see how they actually performed and compare the two numbers, and then you can see which players outperform ADP expectation most and which players underperformed The player who overperformed ADP expectation most this past year on a points per game basis was Quentin Johnston QJ because his expectation was very, very low. It was only five point four PPR points per game because he was drafted way way way late. I almost like you could almost argue that you shouldn't include players like that on these lists because it's just so easy for them to outperform expectation. But I still think, you know, it does tell you that because like, he's not a league winner the same way Jackson Smith and Jigbo was.

00:33:20
Speaker 2: Obviously, but no, but he helped teams. I mean, from where he was in the preseason, they draft Trey Harris, he was an afterthought and he helped people.

00:33:30
Speaker 1: By myself included, I didn't have like any QJ this year, so I wasn't that upset whenever he started to trail off. I was very nervous the first few weeks of the season. Then he trailed off, but he outperformed expectation by six point eight PPR points per game, where she Rice was next. Now obviously that was because he had a depressed ADP because of the suspension and stuff, so that's not really like a one to one comparison. But then JSN Pukinakua, Wandel Robinson, you know, George Pickens is up there, Chris alave Romeo and Alec Pearce. So yeah, I think it captured a lot of the big winners at wide receiver this year. And then on the flip side, the worst player, the worst pick you could have made from an ADP expectation standpoint, was Brian Thomas, which I think that plays out too anyone who drafted you know, BTJ, They're sitting there and they're like yeah, they're nodding, They're like, yeah, that sucked. That was a terrible experience. Matthew Golden was next, Justin Jefferson, Xavier Worthy. This is all in relevant games, by the way. So I removed the final week of the season Adam Thielen because we were drafting him when many thought that he was going to have a role on Carolina and or in Carolina Jerry Judy, Deante Thornton, remember Deonte Thornton had some hype in a little train going at the beginning of the season. Lad McConkie, Cooper Cup and Darnell Mooney Tho. Those were the worst wide receiver picks you could have made. Fortunately, some of those guys were avoids in the draft guy this year. But I did have Darnell Mooney as a dart throw and Matthew Golden as a target. Talked about Matthew Golden on The Things I Got Wrong episode, But like I was lower on Xavier Worthy for a lot of the summer. You know, wasn't really high on Brian Thomas. Uh, didn't mind Justin Jefferson, but no, you know I love Justin Summers come and take.

00:35:18
Speaker 3: Hated Jerry Judy, so at least that at least that one, right, Yeah.

00:35:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, you convinced me not to draft Jerry Judy. But other than that, these these names are going to bring up Payne. Like, you know, Justin Jefferson just whenever he had that little hamstring injury, I was just buying the dip on him and I just kept on drafting him. Oh one dot seven Yes, please.

00:35:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wish I would have leaned in more on some of my research with like the unknown quarterback stuff. And yeah, but someone's asking about Michael Wilson on here. He wasn't draft He didn't have an ADP, so he just isn't on this list.

00:35:53
Speaker 3: That's why. That's why he's not there, but yes.

00:35:55
Speaker 1: Like from a from the perspective of was Michael Wilson about yes, he would probably be the the one oh one here, you know, the top guy here of guys who outperform expectation. But someone's also asking, how do you factor value of draft spot like JJ was a first rounder and BTJ was a second round pick, value of round one much higher? Yes, the value of round one is a lot higher. You can see in the expected points column that Justin Jefferson had a seventeen and a half expected points per game. Brian Thomas was about a full point lower than that. It's all based on regression and historical value. So you just take different trends and curves and you get the formula for that. You can plug it in and say, okay, at this ADP, here's what's happened historically. Now there's gonna be if other people do this, because there are other analysts who do this kind of analysis, you're gonna you can get differing numbers. This isn't like a one size fits all. Not only will ADP change from data set to data set, but the way that you calculate this can change. I will tell you this that I am not using just a straight linear formula create this right, because obviously a first round pick to a second round pick to a third it's it's not a linear drop off and expected points from one pick to the next. But there's some smoothing that goes on to make sure that you know, the one oh one isn't expected to score twenty five PPR points per game and then the you know, the second round guy is at like fifteen. Uh So there's a little bit of math that's involved here, but based on their overall ADP, this is what their expected points UH is for for each each of these players.

00:37:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, some looking at some of these names, the Alec Pierce name. I was told this week there are some teams that are already draft speaking of way too early. Is already drafting next year or for four next year? Alec Pierce. Do you know where he started going?

00:37:47
Speaker 1: I have no, I haven't started drafting yet, but I'll guess he's a sixth or seventh round pick, fourth round.

00:37:55
Speaker 2: Fourth, Yeah he's now I think he's now down to fifth or six. But yeah, crazy he's gonna be a free agent.

00:38:01
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, Well, there's there's a lot of stuff that I'm gonna be researching this year about free agency and team movement and stuff like that. That's part of the that'll be part of the draft guid more than likely. But like, he's an interesting name. He he had a huge breakout year that I wasn't anticipating and and he looked pretty good, and a team is probably gonna pay him, so I could see the logic behind at least drafting him relatively high.

00:38:25
Speaker 2: Yeah he's gonna get he's paid. Yeah, he's gonna get paid this offseason. And also, we don't know what's gonna happen to Michael Pittman Junior. If if he does stay, Pittman Junior could could be on the move somewhere too. So we'll be a fun offseason and trust me, we'll have tons of content around that. And j G. I cannot wait for people to see these wide receiver rankings that you have just set in stone the.

00:38:51
Speaker 1: Late round main event.

00:38:56
Speaker 2: All right, you know the rules. These are JJ's wide receiver rankings, and these will not change at all before the draft, so go ahead and just pencil them in.

00:39:05
Speaker 1: I actually could see this list being more penciled in than any other list.

00:39:09
Speaker 2: You know, pinned in sharp eat in Yeah. Pencil, you can.

00:39:12
Speaker 1: Erase, yeah pencil, you can raise yeah. Number one. I have Pooka Nakua. I think that you could argue a couple of other guys at the top wide receiver spot. But he's now played three years in the league. He said, target shairs of twenty eight point seven percent, twenty nine point nine percent, and thirty point three percent, which is absolutely insane. Good infrastructure. I'm assuming the Rams are going to run it back or try to run it back with what they have. You know, the defense was, They'll improve the defense a little bit. But offensively, I think Stafford will stick around. Obviously McVeigh being the mind and you know, the the guru if you will that he is, will help the offense still sustain success.

00:39:51
Speaker 3: He he.

00:39:52
Speaker 1: Pukinakua has has two of the five seasons since twenty eleven with a three point five or better yards barrow run rate. And he' only played three years in the NFL. Like that's there's no other player that's done that twice. He's done it twice. He's only done He's done that twice in three seasons. It's crazy how good Pukakua has been. The one thing I'll say about Nakua, I think touchdown regression is probably gonna hit Matthew Stafford at a career high seven point seven percent touchdown rate. Nikua he had ten touchdowns, but he had six end zone targets, which what wasn't really anything out of the ordinary for him. So maybe a little bit of touchdown regression, but he's just too good to not have really high or wide receiver list.

00:40:30
Speaker 2: Yeah. I saw one mock draft that had the Rams taking a wide receiver in the first round, like Jordan Tyson, like someone like notable. If that happens, it will not be fair. But they've got the Rams have two picks in the first round this year trade right, So yeah, it be Atlanta. It it was Daniel Jeremiah has Makai Lemon the top receiver right now.

00:40:56
Speaker 3: Who looks looks good in the early early looking at of the model.

00:41:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, going to the Rams, that would be that would be sick. All right. Number two, you've got Jamar Chase.

00:41:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is just like a safe bet overall. I got I gotta clear this up for some reason such showing.

00:41:16
Speaker 1: There we go, we're good, okay.

00:41:19
Speaker 3: Yeah, So yeah, Jamar Chase.

00:41:21
Speaker 1: He he had twenty eight percent and thirty two percent target chairs over his last two You know, the splits with and without Joe Burrow weren't like that that dramatic. This past year, he had nineteen point one PPR points without Burrow and nineteen point six with Burrow, so he did see an uptick in production with Joe Burrow. The one thing I'll say, though, is that with Joe Flacco, Jamar Chase had such unsustainable target chairs, Like I'm talking fifth He had like a sixty percent target chair one week, which is just not sustainable across the season. So I think that's boosting that nineteen point one number up a little bit. The fact is with Joe Burrow, he was at nineteen point six PPR points per game, which is a really good number. Cincinnati, they're another team that's gonna largely just run it back this year. They've fallen below zero and pass right over expected only one time with Joe Burrow and since twenty twenty was Zach Taylor, but with both of them, so since twenty twenty and it was minus point three to three was their pass right over expected. So they're a team with a very good bet to have a lot of passing volume, and Jamar Chase is one of the best wide receivers in the game.

00:42:23
Speaker 2: All right, number three, you've got Jaysn.

00:42:27
Speaker 1: Yes, so next TI, unless it's JSN and you're you're introducing it before you're clearing the black on here, So I'm scrambling to clear it so I can see my notes on these players.

00:42:41
Speaker 2: I think there's a little bit of delay because I'm doing it and then it's taken a little bit for it to update for you.

00:42:45
Speaker 1: It's just it's all the ice over.

00:42:48
Speaker 2: There in Nashville.

00:42:49
Speaker 1: Yes, So yeah, Jaysn's next. I think genuinely you could at least make the argument that you can interchange any of these three guys as the wide receiver one. Jaysn prove this year that he's had to do it all wide receiver. He was arguably the best deep ball wide receiver in football this season, which says a lot, obviously, because that's not how he was deployed at all. To start his NFL career, he led the NFL in twenty plus air yard yards by over one hundred. He had three point sixty two yards per role runs. So he's one of those five that I talked about since twenty eleven to get over that three and a half mark. The downside for JSN, is he going to be able to repeat these insane numbers that he posted this year in terms of deep ball, raid all that kind of stuff. You would assume that Seattle is going to probably still be somewhat of a run heavy team. I don't think they're gonna be a minus six point eight pass right over expected like they were last year, because I generally will regress a little bit. And then the wildcard heaters Clint Kubiak, you know, he's looking like he's you say, the Raiders head coach, probably like it looks like that's a very real possibility if Kubiak is gone. That's at least some more volatility to Jasn's profile. I mean, Jasn is good enough that he's gonna overcome, But that's why I have him three instead of one or two, is because there is some instability with that offensive environment.

00:44:06
Speaker 2: All right, Number four, JJ, we continue with the hyphen Gang with a monro Saint Brown.

00:44:12
Speaker 1: We've now seen ARSB do this with like multiple coordinators, you know, multiple you know, different offenses in a little bit of different styles he just gets it done. He's had at least a twenty seven percent target chair in each of his last four seasons. He's only missed two games. He's a dog. I mean there were there was a time this year we thought he was gonna miss like four games. He didn't miss a beat, right, and so aman Ros is pretty interesting from that perspective that he's got that stability. Two point four eight yards per route run last year was really good. But it wasn't like an outlier season for him by any means. You know. Overall, I just think that he's a he's a safe option. I do have some fear that Drew Petsing is gonna be pretty run heavy because he has been outside of last year in Arizona and that could hurt volume a little bit. But but Amina Saint Brown's is he's a stud.

00:45:01
Speaker 2: Okay, number five, JJ, we have someone who was the third overall pick last year. This year it's CD Lamb at number five.

00:45:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, so look he did see Like if you want to just be like I have like a guide of how George Pickens impacted Cede Lamb, I'd say that he had like a three to four percentage dip percentage point dip in like target share and in a lot of those like share market share related metrics. He also had the worst yards per out run of his entire career. And you can see this chart from last year's Draft guide that shows that top eighteen wide receivers early round wide receivers who had n minus one seasons of a yards pro out run below two, they hit an exceed ADP expectation at a much lower rate than the guys who had over a two point six yards per out run rate for instance, right so or or even you know two to two point three or two point three to two point six. So essentially, guys who had poor yardsboro run seasons the previous season that are then drafted in the early rounds they do worse against ADP and versus ADP than the alternative. With that being said, there's a good environment, you know, Dak Prescott's obviously a plus Seotnenheimer has has called really pass heavy offenses since he's been in Dallas. They haven't had less than six hundred pass attempts in each of their last three Only once since twenty nineteen did they get below six hundre pass attempts. I could though in the end consider not getting Cdee Lamb here, and like, I think you're gonna look at these rankings and you're gonna see like this grouping of like oh, man Cede Lam's only two spots away from Jackson Smith and Jigba. I guarantee you ADP is gonna be those big three wide receivers, maybe aman Ross, Saint Brown, and then a cluster in like the late second round, like there's gonna be a lot of running backs and even.

00:46:55
Speaker 2: Lots of running back you know.

00:46:57
Speaker 1: So, so don't think that Ceedee Lamb is like a top pick. It's just that wide receiver get gets flatter and Ceedee Lamb we know has that ceiling. But he is part of that group of that like non elite elite tier right now. You know he can get there because we know he's talented enough. But I think based on all the evidence we have, we don't want to just like assume that now George Pickens could be gone next year. Could happen. I don't think it's gonna happen, but if it does, then Ceedee Lamb would probably jump up ahead of Amanas Saint Brown.

00:47:24
Speaker 2: For me, with the past few years and the wide receiver stuff. It will be interesting to see how the the ADP shakes out. Let's get to number six. I was a little bit surprised by this, but then I got thinking about it. I was like, Okay, that makes sense. It's Drake London.

00:47:40
Speaker 1: Dude. Drake London balled out last year. It's obviously he got hurt. And so people are like, oh, I hate Drake London because I drafted him high and then he got hurt and he didn't help me as much as he should have been the playoffs and stuff.

00:47:50
Speaker 3: But pre injury, Drake London was literally a league winning player.

00:47:54
Speaker 1: He was. He was great. He was the wide receiver three by points per game nineteen point seven vipe your points per game through week set through week eleven before then injury like he was. He was great. Kevin Stefanski, he can't be run heavy, probably will be pretty run heavy, and but we've also seen him favor those heavy tight end sets and Drake London is not part of you know, if you go back to the Death of the Wide Receiver two episode, Drake London's not one of those wide receivers that will lose work to tight end. You know, in the middle of the field or in those low eight out looks because he's a dominant elite receiver and so I feel confident, if you like, you can go back to his early years when he first entered the league. He had crazy market share numbers, largely because Atlanta was running a lot of heavy sets, not a lot of eleven personnel, and so he was competing with other tight ends instead of wide receivers, and so he was able, even in a run heavy offense, to see a lot a decent amount of volume, you know, given his status as a as a younger player, a decent amount of volume because he had like a thirty percent target share, and so I think we could just see that kind of happen again in a more efficient offense. He's just a stud you know, under a twenty nine percent target share only once in his four seasons yard run rate over two, which is a great number, in three of four seasons. He's a very good player.

00:49:12
Speaker 2: And I won very good players in my fantasy team. That makes sense to me. That checks out all right. Number seven, Yet, Rushy Rice.

00:49:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know how to feel about this, to be honest with you, but it's one of those things where like I'm trying to not overthink this, right, like like this is a very basic math problem with with she right.

00:49:32
Speaker 2: There are some variables I mean involved here.

00:49:34
Speaker 1: Sure there could be you know, Patrick Mahomes is injured, you know, so maybe he's not one hundred percent and he comes back, maybe they add to that wide receiver room. But I think there's a chance that Travis Kelce has done right, doesn't play anymore that would really help Rice. He's had sixteen plus and eighteen plus points per game over his last two and you know, I do think that, like Matt I said this earlier with Eric b Enemy, but like Matt Naggy being gone, maybe that means more downfield throwing and maybe that helps if you're worthy a little bit more than Rashi Rice and all that. And I do think that Rice is sort of like an incomplete wide receiver in general, but they just know how to scheme him and they know how to get them fantasy production, and so I'm gonna be okay with that. I don't like buying in this situation so much, and I feel like you kind of have to do that with Rashi Rice. But it's not like he's a bad player. You know, it's not like we're just buying only into situation. It's just that when you're amongst other really really talented wide receivers, it's a little bit harder to pull the trigger.

00:50:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, And this is one of the reasons why it's way too early is because we don't know about like legal issues or suspension issues with Rice this offseason. So one of the reasons, like one of the main issues that could affect his ranking again after last season as well. All Right, Nico Collins comes in number eight.

00:50:57
Speaker 1: Honestly, I am so tired of people saying that Nico Collins was a.

00:51:02
Speaker 3: Bad draft selection this past year.

00:51:04
Speaker 1: He wasn't. He was not like, he wasn't amazing. He didn't like far out perform expectation. But you could have made way worse picks than Nico Collins and fantasy football, and he was honestly very good. He had a two point three to five yards perrow run, which was the worst of his last three seasons, which is crazy because anything over too is generally considered a good season in yards perrow run. His worst over his last three has been two point three to five. That's how good and inefficient Nico Collins has been. He had very similar red zone and end zone looks this past year. He's been top ten and PPR points per game in each of the last three seasons, so at wide receivers. So I think Collins is a safe bet. You know, we could see some changes at the wide receiver position and hopefully a better offensive line, which would go a really long way for Houston. I don't think that the offensive line can get.

00:51:58
Speaker 3: Much worse than it's been over the last two years.

00:52:00
Speaker 2: So and hopefully Stroud is not seeing ghosts either.

00:52:03
Speaker 1: I think that Collins is going to start to become sort of like that unsexy pick because people just you know, it's a name that we were drafting high this year and you know we're just gonna do it over and over again, and you know, just not feel like it's like this this new up and comer. But I think he's solid. It's no different than like Amanas Saint Brown, like like he's just very very I mean they're different players, completely different players, but like in terms of like the mentality of getting someone who's just a solid asset, that's fine to do when you're talking sixteen plus PPR points.

00:52:34
Speaker 2: Okay, these next two I'm ready to get hurt again. I'm just gonna say that right now. Start with nine Justin Jefferson.

00:52:42
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know what to say about Justin Jefferson if I'm being honest with you, like in a vacuum. His one point eight eight yards per hour run last year was not bad whatsoever, but it is a little bit more like I said with with Ceedee Lamb, a little bit more questionable for a top eighteen wide receiver. It's just such an outlier season in this past year for Justin Jefferson.

00:53:01
Speaker 2: Because we've seen his ceiling. We know that he is like one of the best wide receivers, if not the best wide receiver that there is, and so to see him perform like he did, I'm sure I'm.

00:53:13
Speaker 1: Gonna uncover some data where I make the argument this summer. This is me projecting of what my future is going to be. Where I'm saying it can't be much worse than what Minnesota had at quarterback, and generally teams that have that poor up quarterback play we'll see an uptick the following season. That's my guess of what the pro Justin Jefferson argument will be. I just haven't researched all of that. But yeah, look it's Justin Jefferson, Like he's the fact that a one point eight to eight yards prow run rate is like bad for him is crazy. It's similar. I mean, Nico Collins is the same problem, but Justin Jefferson has has proven a higher ceiling than Nico Collins. So I think Justin Jefferson should be a top ten wide receiver next year.

00:53:55
Speaker 2: And if you're Kevin O'Connell, you're thinking, how do we get this guy some touch? Like you know, two straight seasons of bad passing game is going to be really tough for him. So that's one of the reasons. And then number ten, I appreciate the ihop commercials that he's done. It's Molik Neighbors.

00:54:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, this depends entirely on the recovery. But again, he was still over that tu mark in yards per out run before he went down. He was trending towards like a top ten season now wide receiver. And now we feel better about the quarterback situation, like we feel good about sophomore Jackson Dart. We don't know who the OC is at this point because it was like looking like it was gonna be Todd Mounkin, but it's clearly not going to be. But obviously healthy Molik Neighbors is a very good fantasy asset in my opinion, if he were completely healthy, if we didn't have any questions, probably wide receiver like six on this list, like you can argue him around like where Drake London or even like a Ceedee Lamb hypothetically, like, I think that there's that grouping of like guys who were gonna feel pretty strong about they have more of a backbone. I think the difference between like the top ten this year and like the top twelve to fifteen last year where we were like where most people felt pretty good about those wide receivers is that a lot of those wide receivers didn't have like year after year backbones of good production. I think at least this year we feel like we have that, like Ceedee Lamb has it, Drake London has it, Nico Collins has it, hype it. I mean, Rashi Rice kind of has it obviously, justin Jefferson does. And so I do think we're gonna get a little bit better stability out of that top group. But of course there's reasons why we.

00:55:32
Speaker 3: Won't that I talked about on that that episode.

00:55:33
Speaker 1: I think what ten to seventy five.

00:55:36
Speaker 2: One name to keep in mind, Davis Webb. Yes, he's been linked it as possible. I just think he's gonna get promoted as my is my guess. Yeah, they could, but they, like you said, they thought Monken might be the guy. Now Sheelhouse like You've got all sorts of options, and it's it.

00:55:55
Speaker 1: Is my So my general vibe is that I think that the the the Cardinals have been linked to Mike Lafleur, right, and so if he ends up going to Arizona, I think then shield House will get promoted in LA to an OC job and then they get a year with him, and then he's gonna be hot commodity next year. That's my guess as to how.

00:56:20
Speaker 2: It makes sense.

00:56:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean I'm saying this on Wednesday, January twenty eighth. I could be.

00:56:26
Speaker 2: Totally too early, JJ for you to be saying that.

00:56:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, apparently that's.

00:56:31
Speaker 2: What that's what that's I mean, that's what I have to say. All right, JJ, I do have next year's Super Bowl odds pulled up? Oh? Okay, can you guess who the top two options are right now.

00:56:54
Speaker 1: I'm gonna guess the Rams.

00:56:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess I'll say the Seahawks.

00:57:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, those are the top two right now in the same division. But yeah, Seahawks and Rams plus nine fifty bills.

00:57:12
Speaker 1: Okay, makes sense. Where's Baltimore? Baltimore is kind of intriguing to me.

00:57:16
Speaker 2: Baltimore is fourteen to one, Patriots, twelve to one Eagles.

00:57:21
Speaker 1: I'm assuming a lot of these odds are just really tight, Like there's not probably aren't many standing.

00:57:26
Speaker 2: Out up until like the like sixteen to one the Niners, and then past said it's like Bears twenty two to one, Pittsburgh sixty to one. You know, there's some Titans one hundred and ten. I might just bet that right now.

00:57:41
Speaker 3: My best the best bet I ever made this was years ago.

00:57:44
Speaker 1: It was when the Saints came out of nowhere and they went to the It was the year that they lost to the Rams in the NFC Championship on that questionable call, right Yeah, and I had the Saints at sixty six to one that year.

00:57:58
Speaker 3: Wow, because no one, no one wanted anything to do with them.

00:58:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, going to but when you can, when you compare an elite quarterback because Drew brees like he was gonna be playing for them. When you compare an elite quarterback with those low odds, you should always jump on it. That's my betting advice for you, my very amateur definitely don't take that to the bank betting advice.

00:58:18
Speaker 2: So someone we got to know over the past few years was the Landry family. Yeah, and Harold Landry was an outside linebacker for the Titans and just crushed it and then got older, and then he went to New England last year and I remember seeing the news and just feeling like, oh, dang, sucks for him, like, you know, like, but at least at least he's going there just to ride at the sunset of his career, you know, at least he gets to play, keep playing. And now they're in the super Bowl. Yeah, so you know that's.

00:58:56
Speaker 1: I mean, this is the first time. Is this the first time in either year or wherever one of the two where the Super Bowl matchup is from two teams that didn't make the playoffs the previous year?

00:59:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's fun, this is what we mean.

00:59:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, give me more chaos next year.

00:59:10
Speaker 1: I know that it's not it's not a two teams that like haven't been there in recent memory, because obviously the Seahawks had their time with Russ and.

00:59:17
Speaker 2: The Patriots Shaw and they played.

00:59:20
Speaker 1: Each other, right, and so so like I get all of that, and I get that sentiment, but try to, as a fan, detach yourself from that history and just look at what's gone on this year and you can really appreciate what both teams did and and because of that, it's a lot easier to be like excited and uh, you know, happy for what the players and coaches on those teams were able to accomplish, because it's crazy what like what the Seahawks did and how they rebuilt that team and how I mean, I feel really bad for Tyler Lockett. You know, Tyler Lockett literally got there right after they were in the Super Bowl and left right before they did this. And then there's obviously the trade with DK Metcalf, which is kind of hilarious that you know, they lose him and then and then they go to the Super Bowl. But like taking a chance on Sam Darnold, you know, Mike McDonald and his and his defensive mind, like it's just it's a really really good story, and then obviously what's gone on with New England with Drake May and and how Rabel's gotten that defense to play as well as as it has. I'm I just I want people to walk away from this episode knowing that I truly think that both teams deserve a lot of props and because of that, you should do your best to enjoy that game.

01:00:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. All right, we mentioned it earlier, But make sure you are signed up for the newsletter at late Round and I'll be sitting one out on Friday. Uh, if you want to join in on the fund, join the Patreon, you can find that link at late round dot com as well. And then, uh, if you are just bored and you haven't listened already, JJ has some things he got right this week, and then he also has the mail bag coming out on Friday, so that I miss anything.

01:01:02
Speaker 1: J J, I might have an email blast tomorrow. There's there's a possibility we might be Oh, this is breaking news to me. Look at something up over the last hours. Once I get into something, I can't stop and I've just been thinking about it, so I need to get it out there to.

01:01:17
Speaker 2: No, it's good, it's good with all the stuff we've got going on. It's good that you add an email to the plate, you know, as an outlet to get that out of Okay, so on, behalf of JJ I'm Kitchen. We'll see you next time, hopefully, hopefully from Super Bowl LX in California. Talk to you later, piece,