Late-Round Perspectives: Andrew Cooper

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Andrew Cooper is a lead NFL analyst at Fantasy Alarm and a host at SiriusXM. He was named twenty twenty fours Football Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. He's a dad, a Reddit nerd, and he's probably studied the tight end position more than you have. These are his late round perspectives.

00:00:32
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00:02:12
Speaker 2: The Show.

00:02:15
Speaker 1: Two's fun Man like my son's two and a half now, and like, you know, they start talking a little bit, they don't talk back and stuff, and they're not you know, my daughter's great, like she's you know, super super kind girl, and like isn't isn't like in those teenage years, like like attitude wise, you know, I'm I'm just I'm preparing myself for those years.

00:02:35
Speaker 3: You know they're coming. They're coming, Yeah, they're coming. With a two year old. It's like they can do so many things like a normal person, but at the same time, they cannot take care of themselves in any way, Like that's right now, what's it? Like there's no such thing as like, oh, go put your shoes on or even like put that away or do anything like you're still you're still directing the show. But yeah, they can, they can improvise a little bit.

00:02:56
Speaker 2: But yeah, I do think.

00:02:58
Speaker 1: I do think that two to three is the year and the age where your patience has tested so much where like like they like my my son, for instance, like really like needs to do everything himself. Like you tell him, like, hey, come over here, I gotta change your diaper, get you change, get you ready for for for school today, and he'll be like, no, I do it. I do it, you know, like he's got to be the one to do it. And I'm like, bro, we don't have much time. You can't just can't just wait for you to do it.

00:03:24
Speaker 3: It's not that easy, especially guys like us, where it's like we spend so much time like trying to hammer things down to what's what's rational and what's not, like our job, let's be rational here. And then you have you have a daughter who's just like no, it's like, yeah, I know you like strawberries, like I know in fact you love strawberries, so don't tell me today. The answer is no, right, yes, oh man.

00:03:47
Speaker 1: Nothing worse than making dinner and them them saying that's what they want to eat.

00:03:52
Speaker 2: What do you want for breakfast? So I want some yogurt? All right, here's some yogurt.

00:03:55
Speaker 1: You know, I'm not even you know, sitting and making dinner or you know, making breakfast in that case, but like, been a brand new yogurt for you. And then you're like, I don't want yogurt. You told me three minutes ago that you wanted.

00:04:05
Speaker 3: Yogurt, Like you said, yeah.

00:04:07
Speaker 2: You literally told me that you wanted yogurt.

00:04:09
Speaker 3: I'm I'm gonna be tested, man, because that's my my not the irrational behaviors just across the board. Always, yeah, those always drive me nuts. When somebody does something, I'm like, dude, just use your nogging. And it's hard for me to come to terms with the fact that these noggings just don't work right, they don't, don't.

00:04:26
Speaker 1: You gotta yeah, you gotta just you gotta just you know, respect the process and trust the process.

00:04:31
Speaker 2: That's right, you know, that's just that's just what it comes down to. But man, I'm so pumped. Have you on perspectives?

00:04:36
Speaker 3: You know?

00:04:36
Speaker 1: I asked this to guess who hop on to just like talk about your journey in the space and how you got to where you are so people can get introduced to you, you know, as a person and analyst, and yours is interesting. Yours is is very interesting, you know, coming from a lot of your stuff stemming from Reddit, right right.

00:04:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, So when I say that, I mean it, like i I'm just a comment guy. Originally was a guy that just throughout comments, starting like a decade to go, just commenting on post give them my thoughts. And eventually people were like, we're like, oh, this is good information, it should be its own post. So then I would go and create my own post, you know, just posting basically articles for free, nuanced takes, whatever. And eventually I met somebody in the industry and I showed them. I was like, oh, yeah, I do some stuff over here for fun, and they were like, oh, that should be on a website, and they sent me up writing for free. I was just writing for free for somebody else's website that I posted on Reddit. I was kind of grandfather DA didn't read it because I had been there for so long, so I just told them, yeah, this is some site. And then eventually from there they asked me the guy John and Pemba, who I met in the industry, he goes, do you write baseball? Because they had an opportunity there. I played baseball. I never wrote it. I didn't go on read or whatever, but the answer was yes. And from there every time they asked me something, can you do rookies for football? Right? Yes? Can you do this? Yes? And now eventually I can write the stuff I want to write. But it's a grind in this industry to get to a spot where you can do the things you want because there's so many things out there that need to be done.

00:05:59
Speaker 1: Is the day to day for you now when you're waking up and doing the work that you're doing.

00:06:04
Speaker 3: Yeah, So for me, I do a ton of different stuff for us in terms of like the articles, the videos, the podcast. Now I'm doing the Serious XM Show, But my day always starts with waking up with my daughter at nine o'clock. I pass her off and that's when I go in and I almost always start my day researching writing something right at one o'clock. I try and schedule all my one o'clock and beyond, I try and schedule all my shows and all that stuff. But I always try and research and write in the morning, and then from there it's it's showtime. You know. We do the My wife loves, she loves that our Serious XM Show. When I'm on six to eight pm Eastern Time on Thursdays and Fridays, Right, that's a good nice time slot for the for pretty much kissing everything. And then the season starts and our show is on Sunday morning on Series second. Yeah, Like, well, I can't do anything on Thursday night, Friday night or Saturday night. Can't go away for a weekend. Ever, so can you tell me if you can work around those plans? Right?

00:07:02
Speaker 1: Yeah, with you having started at Reddit and like, I'm relatively active on Reddit, not like to the degree of like hopping on there daily and stuff like that, but like, you know, if they post something of mine or they're talking about something that I had done, like I want to have conversation about it. Do you think that Reddit just kind of gets a bad rep in the in the industry in general, And why do you think that is and why.

00:07:25
Speaker 2: Do you think it's probably I mean, I would assume you think it's wrong.

00:07:27
Speaker 3: I've come up so not necessarily wrong, but I can get I understand why analysts and like, especially people that are kind of known wouldn't like it as much. And I've come up with an analogy for it. Well, let's say you're a name name, a band you like, or any band. It's got a tough question.

00:07:43
Speaker 2: Let's just go with like, let's go with like Coldplay.

00:07:46
Speaker 3: Cold Play, Oh good, something really irrelevant right now. So say you're cold Play, right, and you have a cold Play concert that's going to invite your fans to come to that concert. You know, CEOs and potentially there, you know, they hr people and stuff like that. So like you have your fans are coming to your concert, that's Twitter, right, that's Twitter because even though people will find your stuff when it gets to a higher level, initially, the people that follow you are rooting for you. They want you, they want your content, they want your stuff. They're there for you. Reddit is more like a music festival where it's like there's a bunch of stuff on there. Nobody's there specifically to see you. For the most part. There might be somebody, but your cold play and you're showing up. And if your stuff's not good and it's got you know, illogical stuff and fallacies, then people are gonna come in and they're not gonna like it. And there's a downvote button over there, right, I get your concert. You're kicking people out whatever. On Twitter, you can block people, you can do with people over there, they got the downvote button. It's just it's a different beasts. You're not playing to your people. And that's why a lot of people who are used to Twitter and used to having their followers being like, right on, dude, you're the goat people over there, and people might be like, who is this guy.

00:08:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's right.

00:08:58
Speaker 1: I also think that on Twitter there's a more intentional interaction that goes on because they're adding you, right, or they're responding to something that you're saying, right, And so like oftentimes, you know, it's hard for me on Twitter to take feedback either way really because on one side, of course, I appreciate like the and I'm grateful for like the really favorable comments and stuff, and I you know, will tell them that I appreciate it and all that kind of stuff. But you're also like, that's that's your direct line to tell me that, right, because I know because you know that I'll be checking Twitter, and then the people who say negative things are doing it and they're adding me because they know they're that I'm going to see it, and they're likely trying to get under my skin just as much as they're providing like actual constructive feedback.

00:09:38
Speaker 3: Right.

00:09:38
Speaker 2: And So the thing that I've always said on my on these shows.

00:09:41
Speaker 1: Is that I love going on Reddit because and seeing what people are saying about my content because it's it's free critique, it's it's it's it's people who are not necessarily trying to get under it and now maybe that people know that I'm doing that, they will try to get under my skin and stuff because they know that I'll like find or something like that. But like, I just genuinely like I've taken stuff that people have said on Reddit about my podcast, about my an article that I've written, or what have you, and I've changed things based on what people have said, you know, And like when you get sort of that like more objective feedback, even if it's stemming from someone who you know might be more negative and mean on the Internet, like, it's still something there's probably still a little bit of truth there. And at the end of the day, man, I found that like when you jump in and just have general conversation on there, I don't really think it's any different than the general conversation you have on Twitter or something.

00:10:37
Speaker 3: Not to mention, there is a the trolls can be taken care of by other people there as well, because like the thing about Twitter is when you block people, you're just kind of hiding them, you're not really exposing them. On Reddit, when people come in and the comments start coming in, the good ones and the funny ones usually make it to the top, and people who are being just flat out rude and annoying. You can actually downvote that to the bottom. There's on Twitter, it's like that stuff comes in and even though one hundred and fifty people might might hate it, if five people like it, it has five likes. Right Like on Twitter, if one fifty people hate it and five people like it, it has negative forty five. You know what I mean, negative one hundred and forty five, Like you're just married, right, And it just makes it easier to get to the quality stuff and see the quality stuff at top. So it's a different beast. And again there's definitely an extra layer of a nominimity to it. There's definitely an animosity for anything that's paywalled and that you know, towards towards analysts as well a little bit. So there's definitely downsides to it. But I would say the big upside is for anybody that wants to start creating content and get in the space, I'll say this, where else can you go and write a huge thing, do your research and you can actually do formatting and thing over the stuff over there and post it and guarantee that someone will read it and give you feedback. I mean, I go in there and I read all the time and I say, hey, this is great. Where I pop in and say hey, I disagree. I mean when I first started, the feedback I was getting was like, dude, you're using too many commas, right, And I was like, you know what, I actually got to get better at writing. I could give you like people saying like, oh, too long, didn't read. That's a real thing. Like I know it's a joke to say that, but like Mark Twain used to say, if I had more time, I would have written you a shorter letter. Like I learned how to take out not only things that are just too long and too cumbersome, but also like if I have like eight points on a player, just based on the debates I've gotten into on edit, when people go and pick holes, they don't pick your top six arguments, they pick your weakest ones. Good and you go. So I go in Now, I asked myself, I'm like, where am I falling for a fallacy? Or where am I creating a fallacy? Like am I creating like a false choice between two players? Is that doesn't exist? And if I'm doing that, I'll take it out And then by the end of the day, I have a more tight product that's harder to poke holes into, and it's also easier to digest. Like, that's something that Reddit gives me. Whereas like, are definitely our members on our website, as much as I love them and stuff, they very rarely come to me and say, hey, you know what, like I didn't like your argument here, you know, so yeah, yeah, you get that and you need it.

00:13:13
Speaker 1: Shout out Reddit man, Shout out that subreddit. You know, they're doing their thing each and every day. All right, let's look into some fantasy analysis here. You've sort of become the tight end dude. You've analyzed tight ends super super deeply. That's sort of how you In my eyes, it was a way for you to like really stand down and differentiate yourself I think in the space and then kind of branch out from there. But what do you think people if I were to just give you, like a high level question, what do you think people have gotten wrong most with the tight end position through the years.

00:13:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, And that's actually how I kind of kind of got into it, is that there's one thing and in this this is divisive because people kind of hate it, especially the dynasty people. Dynasty people hate the idea that opportunity matters so much more for tight end and other positions. It truly does. Like a wide receiver, it's great when it comes to talent because every team is putting two three wide receivers on the field for the vast majority of their snaps, and the talent wins out right every time. The most talented guy gets gets the ball more and pass like wide receivers when you just group everyone together as pass catchers, wide receivers are better pass catchers in most cases than tight ends, So it's like, it's just so much easier to say this guy is the most talent, that he's going to get the ball, Whereas with tight end, scheme comes into play, opportunity comes into play, obviously, the talent of the wide receivers around them come into play. And people don't like to hear that. They don't they like this notion that the best players are going to be the best versus this idea of like, we need to find the convergence of scheme and talent and opportunity and then lean into that and redraft in dynasty. At tight ends, you just got to draft the talented guys and sit tight and wait for that window to open. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. Like that's that's what you run into there with dynasty, and that's the way it is. But which dynasty in some ways is a lot easier because Hey, I like this guy, I'm gonna grab him, I'm gonna hold on to him. But in redraft, you really got to lean into opportunity. I think a lot of people sit back and they they lean too much into I think this player is good or I think this quarterback is good, so I'm just gonna draft anybody that plays with him. And and I think that can be a mistake for people at times.

00:15:25
Speaker 1: You know, it's kind of this kind of plays into that. But I remember, I don't think it was last year. I think it was a couple of years ago when it came to Rookie tight Ends and there was a big discussion about, you know, Rookie tight Ends being bad picks just based on history, et cetera, et cetera.

00:15:39
Speaker 2: And I remember this is the year that Laporta came.

00:15:41
Speaker 1: This was a couple of years ago, and I ended up writing up Laporta and this is obviously like it sounds like a humble brag but I you know, I wrote him up as a late round target in the draft guide, and the main reason that the driving force for that is exactly what you're saying in that if you look historically at rookie tight ends who actually did just run routes, who actually did just like get out there and do things, whether it was Kyle Pitts or Jordan Reed or whomever, those were the dudes who were good in fantasy football. Like, it's so like you could sit there and say, like, hey, rookies are not going to get those opportunities nearly as much, which I think is probably fair. But if you feel very if you get the coach speak and the you feel conviction about the player and all that kind of stuff, you can see all that converge and say, oh yeah, like you could see a Sam Laporta in that instance, you know, emerge and be something, or Brock Bowers last year or insert rookie tight end here, if all those things really come together. But like, it's just so true that at the end of the day, fantasy football comes down. It's a volume driven game, and I do think oftentimes we lose sight of that at tight end because there is such a wide variety of deployment at the position across teams.

00:16:48
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. That's why I'm so glad that Adam Gase is gone, because that dude, like he would just have his tight end block on twenty percent of the past plays, no matter who it was, you know what I mean, like historically making you know, you go through your example tight ends that block on fifteen percent or more of their pass plays. I've only seen three of them finish top five in fantasy football. Again, we're talking going back a full decade plus, and that's George Kittle one time, Rob Gronkowski in a year that he actually caught ten touchdowns and got hurt after ten games. And then the other one was Julius Thomas and an Adam Gase offense where Paid Manning through fifty five touchdowns. Yeah right right, so a shopping cart could have scored double digit touchdowns. He's with a good push, right. So Like, but for the most part, like we need our guys out there running the routes, like you said, not just on the field. That's even That's the part thing that gets so annoying for people is that, like you take somebody like Tyler Higbee in early his early career, he was out there a ton, but he's blocking on twenty percent of his pass plays. He might as well not even be out there, So like, yeah, it's his whole idea of like you got to find if especially for rookie tight ends, you need to find a team that's willing to draft this guy to be there their top pass catching tight end, which for example of Trey McBride, good player, they just happen to have another guy that only catches passes. You're never gonna put zach Ertz in the dirt, right, it's gonna be it's gonna be Ertz out wide and the other guy in line. And then on top of that, he needs to be a top two target on the team. You can't have two high end incumbent wide receivers because he needs to get those targets. On top of that, like you put anybody and I'm talking pretty much anybody behind Jamar Chase and t Higgins and we're gonna have to move him down because it's just it's so difficult to get three guys on the same team, all of them one hundred targets without somebody getting hurt. So it really is this this game of opportunity, and it helps to have the talent, no question.

00:18:40
Speaker 1: So with all that in mind, who do you look at this year at tight end and think they're they're super overvalued? And are you you know, do you lean elite tight end too? Like that's another question I should throw out there with, you know, with with all this in mind.

00:18:54
Speaker 3: So I usually don't. When we're talking elite, meaning like the first couple off the board, I usually yeah, yeah, you usually don't. And I want to give a shout out to Ryan Heath who's done some great work on this, like actually like visualizing the data on this, you know. And again this gets into a deeper discussion on positional scarcity, which then now you're getting into format right because like in a ten team I try to tell people like, if you're in a ten team league with two wide receiver spots and one flex spot, well, now positional scarcity. Now, I actually probably will go out and draft prop powers because I think I can feel those spots easier. But in the what's becoming more commonplace, which is like the three wide receivers and a flex or even the super flexes and things like that, I typically don't go for those top guys, and I think positional scarcity can be overblown at times when you consider that you still need to hit on the other positions right now. You can't just I can't just go against you this week JJ and score twenty points less than you, but say, oh, well, positional scarcity, so I actually I actually beat you. You actually still need to score those points. Like the best ever PPR season for a tight end is Rob Gronkowski. He scored three hundred and thirty Fantasy points, which is awesome. It's incredible, But guys like Ceedee Lamb and Jamar Chase and some of these running backs are scoring four hundred. You still got to fill in the other spots there. So for me, I'm not going to say that brock Bauers and Traineming Pride are overvalued because I think they're the best of the position. I would go and say that guys that I don't where I'm not guys from that like top five or so group where I'm not sure they're even going to be a top two target on the team. I'm not sure the volume is going to be there. Guys like Sam Laporta and possibly TJ. Hockinson. You really have to ask yourself with those players. I hate to simplify it down to a question, but you really have to sit there and say who gets more targets, Sam Laporter or James Williams. Who gets more targets TJ. Hockinson or Jordan Addison? And I know Addison could be suspended, but who gets more targets when it matters for me when I'm trying to win a championship. And if your answer is definitively Jamison Williams, you are betting against yourself selecting Sam Laporta as a top four tight end. If I'm drafted to ten at four, it's because I think he could be one. So yeah, for me, I'm not really grabbing those guys.

00:21:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I look all my research points the same stuff when you look at like how top six tight ends and how they perform against ADP expectation and stuff. I mean, if you look at their previous season peripherals and some of the numbers that they had in that end minus one year, typically the guys who end up busting are the ones who didn't have strong yards perrole run rates, and like we didn't see that from Laporto last year. A Kelsey. Obviously, Kelsey took a big step back last year, Like we didn't see that from them. And to your point, like a lot of my research is pointed too that when there are tight ends who have top wide receivers on their team multiple and they're they're the third player, if you will, pass catcher being drafted from their team, that's.

00:21:41
Speaker 2: Not a good sign.

00:21:41
Speaker 1: You want one or zero, right, Like that is the ideal situation, and that plays into what you're just talking about about them being you know, one of the higher players on their team from a target share standpoint.

00:21:50
Speaker 3: And yeah, I'll add this for brock Bowers if he comes out and hits me, because the thing is Brock Bauwers last year he was if you just take all the flex players in points per game, he was like flex player thirty five, you know what I mean, Like, you do have to claim position of scarcity. If he comes out this year and pulls a prime Travis Kelcey and has one hundred receptions and thirteen hundred, fourteen hundred yards and you know touchdowns are flukie, but you know Kelsey was. Kelsey's one of the few guys that has multiple seasons with double digit touchdowns, Like, if he does that, I'll be happy to draft him in the first and second round at that point. Per Ryan, he's his research. Kelsey is the only guy in modern times that's been drafted in the first four rounds as a tight end and actually delivered. And you got to go back to like Gronk and Jimmy Graham to find other examples. So, like, you know, I, if I could be confident in saying this is the guy, he's going to be the guy for a long time, I'll go there. After one season.

00:22:42
Speaker 1: I'm just not there yet, So yeah, I mean, look, I ranted about this on the Late Round Fantasy Football show that actually happened right before we started recording this, and this is kind of a mini rant, but I think that it's an important like thing to throw out there because.

00:22:53
Speaker 2: It was research that I did for the draft guy this year.

00:22:55
Speaker 1: So basically like the way that I look at and this is kind of deep. So hopefully, like as I explain this, it makes sense, and I'd love to hear your reaction of it too. To me, it's all about opportunity costs. It's all about the fact that when you get this guy, you're not getting these guys right. So at every spot in the draft, some player at their position has an expected PPR points per game average number that they're expected to get, right, And if you look at where the tight end one historically has been drafted, the ten end two where they've historically been drafted, and you look at them compared to a baseline.

00:23:27
Speaker 2: Player to calculate expected VORP right.

00:23:30
Speaker 1: So baseline player in this case, let's just say tight end twelve, and then you do the same thing at running back and wide receiver at that same area of the draft. Tight ends look better in vorp okay versus the RB nine I think it is that's close to that tight end one, and ADP or the wide receiver I don't know, eleven or whatever it is, or seven or something. So basically what I'm saying is like on paper, from a value of a replacement player perspective, this is what people look at and they say, I'm going to get a tight end because this tight end is geving me x number of points in expectation more than that baseline tight end. But because baseline tight ends get drafted later when you divide that number by the number of picks that it takes to get to that baseline tight end. You start to see that there's a much larger opportunity cost involved when you draft that tight end instead of the running back and the wide receiver, because the running back and the wide receiver the baseline is getting drafted in round five, round six versus round eleven, round twelve, right, So that advantage that you think that you're getting a tight end is actually not nearly as great. It's actually worse because of how far it stretches across rounds at the end of the day. So I like, you like, there are instances where going a lead tight end makes plenty of sense, like when you're in a ten team league, or if you're in you know, a not suit you know, home leagues and stuff where people maybe aren't as sharp and it's more casual. Then you can win that position and you know that you can fill running back and wide receiver more easily. But I'm always shocked, Like, for instance, like we go to the expo, right and I'm in the King's Classic, and I'm sitting there and I'm drafting this at the full PPR format. There's one tight end slot, there's three wide receiver slots, and there's three flex spots where we know tight ends are not going to be winning the flex, right, And so I'm sitting there and people are like taking and hopefully I'm not exposing too much because I want to win.

00:25:14
Speaker 2: You know, I won last year. I I want to repeat this thing, right, But like people.

00:25:17
Speaker 1: Are drafting tight ends and they're normal ADP spots, but there's more flex spots than normal. You should be going after wide receivers and running backs more exactly. And when you look at brock Bauers versus the tight ends ten eleven, twelve, you know, just looking at the raw information in terms of points per game, you're getting five more points per game, which is what people point to with the positional scarcity.

00:25:38
Speaker 3: Right you look at the kicker or something, it's like two. You know that's why I kicker, you wait, right, But like if you actually go and look at a multi flex league like that or even just one flex, look at how many more points Jamar Chase scored on a per game basis than the wide receivers threes and fours too. And when we're talking ten more points per game, like yeah, when you really start boiling it all down, it doesn't make a ton of sense there not to mention. Tight end, in my opion is one of the positions where you can create so much leverage because it's much easier to find value later. Right, Like I went back and looked and for thirteen straight years now a tight end has come from eighteen and ADP or later to finish top five. Right, we're talking to porta Ingram twice, going all the way to back to Julius Thomas right, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, Logan Thomas, Like, it's to me, it's just easier to create that, just like you with I know it's late round dot com now, but late round QB like right, like that that was the little idea, is that, like we can find these guys late and you get create so much leverage that way by loading up on the other positions and then circling back. It's just like zero RB. And I'll say that's one of the other positions. One of the other huge mistakes I see people making at tight end is that they pump the position, but then they never circle back to look for upside. That's what the whole yin and yang tight end thing has always been about, is that like we're going to use this position to create leverage. But you don't just stop at the draft. Like if you ever watch somebody go zero RB and then never actually trade or add some off someone off waivers, that team absolutely craters. They might survive based on wide receivers for a little while, but the whole goal is to build the most rock solid team by the end. So I saw so many times I see people go so heavy on running back and wide receiver and then they never address the tight end position. They never address the quarterback position. They make the playoffs, they're on a rocket ship to third place. If you come in third or fourth place every year and you're one of those people that drafts wide receiver and running back heavy, maybe this year consider investing more time on the waivers and trades at those other onesie positions, and maybe that's that's the reason that you haven't been able to get over the top.

00:27:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that there's obviously nuance, and we're not saying like never draft a league tight ends any of that kind of stuff. But I do think that another underrated piece about late round tight end that also is just not talked about that much is that when you're in the grind of the regular season, you got to think about where people are going to be fighting most off the waiver wire, and it's always going to be running back and wider receiver because the demand is higher. Similar to in your draft, they go earlier because the demand is higher. And so you know, we can sit here and say, oh, yeah, late round. Tight ends happen every year and there's you know, guys in the top five, but like at the same time, they are a little bit easier to acquire because people aren't going like attacking the position nearly as hard as they are running back and wide receiver.

00:28:19
Speaker 3: Absolutely not to mention you have the additional value of like the So there's a lot of tight ends that kind of have like handcuff value, like Dallas gott her perfect example. When someone's hurt, he's great. You know, like last year, what do you have one hundred and seventy yards in that one game that aged I think that DeVonta Smith left mid game. Like there's that handcuff value. You know, Trey McBride and Isaiah likely coming out of the woodwork to help people win leagues and and and you know, and that comes along a little bit later in the season than like a breakout running back Week one. You know, you know how the scramble is early on and hitting and missing. We saw the rare occasion with Isaiah Likely last year where people were just like pumping money at a guy week one. But you're right, it's almost always wide receivers and running backs and you can just kind of slide them in there. Man. So I think especially in fab leads with fab where you just you know, you can still bid on the running backs and then sneak the tight end on your bench for like four bucks. So really, it really is a great position to generate leverage. And that's why it needs to be a special situation for me to sit back and advise the people that follow our strategy to say, hey, you know what, we're actually going to reach on the tight end for this year. It usually is more like, hey, you know what, if Trey McBride slides into the fourth or fifth round, we will take them, or if George Kittle is slide in the fifth round, we will take them. Otherwise we're going to hang back. We're going to potentially draft two, and we're going to be all over the wire and we're gonna we're gonna create leverage that way.

00:29:41
Speaker 1: So let's talk about those guys who are who are some of your favorite sleepers this year at tight end?

00:29:45
Speaker 3: Yeah, So for me, this is my favorite question because this is where I point people over to the article what makes an elite tight end at Fantasy Alarm. That is one that I wrote up for free for anybody that just details what I look for in breakout tight ends and elite tight ends. And then you you know, my personal opinions on this year are fully in our draft guide like everybody does, you know, so if you want my opinion, it's there, But if you want to search for yourself, look for that. We're looking for guys that ideally your top two targets on the team, Guys that have athleticism if you want to if you want to figure out why some guys on seventy catches have seven hundred yards like Jake Ferguson, and some guys on seventy catches have a thousand yards like rookie Kyle Pitts or George Kittle. It's it's ross sped. So I'm looking for guys that potentially could be a top two target on their team and potentially have that speed, So you know, I'll bet again on on Dalton kind if I'm going to spend up a little bit. But deeper guys. I mean, I look around at guys like Chickakonquo. I know he's undersized, but ask yourself, after Calvin Ridley, who's the next best target on that team? And cam Ward could go full hocket chucket football here. You know. The criticisms of him are that he's like a Jamis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick, j Cutler hero ball guy. But that sounds pretty good to me for fantasy. Yeah, sounds great, right, So, like I have no problem with going there. I look at you, Probably the deepest guy that I'm willing to truly strongly consider would be Aronde Gadsden, just because you look at all the and again we've got to go down there on the street here for this, so hold on, area, hold on.

00:31:14
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, it's it's it's an undrafted season long player, and it's a twentieth round at times best.

00:31:19
Speaker 2: Ball play undrafting.

00:31:20
Speaker 3: So yeah, exactly, I could just give you like the Hunter Henrys and the Tucker Crafts and stuff like you know, you know, in the typical league, what I My main move is to take a hunter Craft, a Hunter Henry or a Tucker Craft and plan to start them and then just take somebody completely high risk Howherward, to put them on the bench like in Cave the pits or whatever. But if you're looking at deeper leagues, Ronde Gadston, if you if you look at Greg Roman's history with Mark Andrews, not only did you have a tough five all time season with Mark Andrews, but in the early going for Mark Andrews twenty nineteen, Nick Boyle was the inline tight end. He played seventy percent of the snaps. Mark Andrews actually only played forty one percent of the snaps that year, but he was used primarily as a full time pass catching tight end, basically playing slaw and split end. And he finished top five in Fantasy football. And Greg Roman orchestrated that. Not only that, but Andy Bischoff came over with Roman. He's the tight end coach over there. He was the tight end coach that converted Darren Waller from a wide receiver to a tight end. And you listen to the things he says about Ronde Gatst and he's literally using Darren Waller's name. This is yeah, whose father was a wide receiver. I know he went to Syracuse, so it's like kind of throw the tape out of the window a little bit. But I mean, seventeen contested catches last year, most of any rookie tight end. So that's a name where it's like if he comes out and gets a good route participation, if he gets any sort of role. Yeah, as part of the past game. It's something to consider because you know, we don't know who the guy after lab mccock he's going to be either, So that's probably the deepest unwilling to go with with the sleepers.

00:32:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love I love that call on.

00:32:50
Speaker 1: I was looking at my prospect model right now as you were talking, just to see where things sort of lined up with Gatston. I mean, he looks he looks pretty good for where he was drafted, for sure.

00:33:00
Speaker 2: So career yards per.

00:33:01
Speaker 1: Out run is one of the inputs, one of the main production inputs, and it's getting more and more difficult to model tight ends, rookie tight ends just because we know, I thought this doesn't matter so much more there and we're not getting.

00:33:11
Speaker 2: Numbers from these guys like we used to and it's.

00:33:13
Speaker 3: Very cowards cowards JJ, yeah, right, right, right, Terrence Ferguson for showing up, That's what I'm.

00:33:18
Speaker 1: Saying, Like, that's one of the reasons why I went to Baton Dynasty for Terrence Ferguson's because we knew, right, we knew that he was athletic, and we felt good about that. Like if Elijah Royo would have come out and run, he could have been a baller from a problem, like we could have felt really great about him. But we just don't know whereas Like, at least with Terrence Ferguson, I'm not saying Ferguson is going to be a this year guy.

00:33:38
Speaker 2: I think he's probably more twenty twenty six plus guy.

00:33:40
Speaker 1: But like regardless, like it's it sucks that we're not getting that data nearly as much. But Gatson at least has arguably, you know, one of the best production.

00:33:48
Speaker 2: Profiles out there, so there's at least that going for him too.

00:33:51
Speaker 3: I'll say this, you know again, a Royal, you know, I know, our friend Theo Grammager always likes to point to that on field speed that a Royal had on that one play, that seam play, that everyone scene where he's just off the house. But yeah, we need that data because it's it's it truly is the last time a tight end that ran a four to eight or slower finished top five and fantasy was Keith Miller rights, Like, you need at least you need to be able to run. I'll run the linebackers and safety and we.

00:34:16
Speaker 1: Can obviously make assumptions and watch and all that kind of stuff, but like it's just nice to have the data point there that we can point to.

00:34:22
Speaker 3: I'll say this on a Ronde Gadston. If you out there are a fan of Harold Fannin, then you should be a fan of Ronde Gaston because it's like they have a similar profile and their path to success is going to be the same. You need somebody that's willing to just play in that wide receiver essentially and make them the big slot and use them like Evan Ingram and Greg Roman has a history of doing that. That's what that's If it was up to me, I would just bring back Doug Peterson and Chang Gaily and we would just every team would use the big slot. But the you gotta you gotta gotta lean into what you're giving.

00:34:56
Speaker 2: I love that call out. All right, let me let me ask you this when we look back at this season.

00:35:01
Speaker 1: Okay, so we've already talked about like late round tight end and stuff, and whether you want to go earlier or not, but just overarching, not just a tight end. What strategy do you think will look best when it's January twenty twenty six.

00:35:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, just leaning into kind of well, all we've talked about and my thought process and how I feel about the teams I've already drafted, Like, I truly think that using your first four or five straight picks on running back and wide receiver, any combination really that you want to but maybe even leaning a little more into And I'm usually like a robust r B guy, like like get them and go with it, but maybe leaning to a little more into wide receiver this year, given out heavy running backs are going early. But I truly think that you're better off fading both quarterback and tight end to some degree and then trying to put those together later on. I will take in the fifth round, I think, is where I'll start considering like a George Kittle or a Jalen Hurts if they're still floating around there. But yeah, I really truly think that this is it. It's gonna be a year where you're gonna want to lean into our being wide receiver early for sure. I mean, for you with the early going, do you do you think we're bouncing back more towards wide receiver given out healthy running backs for I know. I read I read your email blast that went out on on Saquon Barkley and all the guys that get ye yeah, okay, I mean, it's just it's eye opening. It makes so much sense that people don't people think that the only way to regress is injury, and you made such a good point that it's like the way to regress is actually just normal Russia, where.

00:36:28
Speaker 2: Yes, it's just all this goes yeah, exactly that. I think.

00:36:32
Speaker 1: I think that we just love to attach narratives to things to make things seem like they make more sense.

00:36:37
Speaker 2: But I think what, like, what makes sense in my mind for.

00:36:39
Speaker 1: A guy like Saquon or whoever had a lot of carries the previous year is just, hey, it's really hard to carry the ball three hundred plus times in the season, not just because you probably ran pure from an injury perspective, yes, but also like the Eagles at the second lowest pass rate of any team since twenty eleven last year. You know, like that's they have a tough schedule this year, and just in general, like when we talk about regression, you gotta think that other things are gonna go down that are completely unpredictable and unforeseen, whether it's injuries to other players, or the offensive line or or the defense, like playing poorly, or like this deep ball just doesn't hit, or like those kinds of things. And that's why I always go to golf whenever I give analogies about regression, because everyone, you know, so many people play, all of us are pretty bad. I don't think Scotty Scheffler's listening to this podcast, I don't.

00:37:27
Speaker 3: Make sense shot and shout out Scotty.

00:37:29
Speaker 2: If you are though, shout out Scotty. Shout out Scotty.

00:37:32
Speaker 1: But like we all intuitively can understand, like there are times, like if I'm like a low nineties golfer, right, there are times where I'll go out, I'll shoot like an eighty five and I'm like, wow, I had a great day.

00:37:42
Speaker 2: Did I do anything different?

00:37:44
Speaker 1: No, I just I hit a drive that hit a tree and just landed back in the fairway, you know, like just stuff like that goes down and happens. Similar if you exercise, if you go for a run and one day you just feel it because you got better sleep or something like. There's just so many fat literally like thousands of factors that go into what regression is. And I think a lot of people are just like, oh no, a lot of carries this year means that they're gonna get injured the next year.

00:38:07
Speaker 2: Doesn't have to be injury.

00:38:08
Speaker 1: It could be partially injury, But like, I don't think we can just simply say that's the reason that that happened, you know what I.

00:38:14
Speaker 3: Mean exactly, And then the people, like some people on the complete opposite side will go out and say, well JJ shot in eighty five yesterday, so today he will shoot in eighty five unless he blows his knee out. You know, right where the reality is that next year you might just go back to a normal year where you know there's certain players. Again, for me, it affects when I go through that list, like certain guys if I don't love the talent and everything lined up perfectly for success, like potentially guys like Karen Williams, Those are the ones that kind of scare me the most, where it's like, you know, like, wow, things went perfectly for a guy that I don't think is you know, statistically he's not really a world beater on that front either. It's like you look back at it and say, man, am I going to make that bet again on something that I didn't even really like that? Non so fully with you on that. I think there's it's just so hard to fade sakeuon like I can't. I can't do it past I don't know five or six, you know.

00:39:09
Speaker 1: I agree like I And that's that's why I wanted to put that together to say, like, this isn't about fading a player because you're predicting injury. This is about just looking at the realistic range of outcomes that's gonna happen for a guy that's like chances are he'll lose two to three to four attempts per game, Like that's that's what we've seen a story like two to three attempts per game, and that could be significant or like you you can judge, you know, at the end of the day. But I think the regression piece is something that always just goes and I know we've kind of gotten off topic with it, but like it's probably yeah, exactly, this is what perspectives is for maybe just just doing whatever we want.

00:39:45
Speaker 3: This was important, I mean, this is important stuff.

00:39:47
Speaker 1: Regression to me is the single most important thing in fantasy football for people to to sort of grasp because a lot of times we make the assumption that things will just go the same way, and I like, I think an example of that this year could be and again I think in range of outcomes, but I'm definitely lower than the market, but could be with like Chewba Hubbard where last year? And it's fine if people like Cuba I understand the upside case for Chuba Hubbard, trust me, they have a good offensive line, Like the offense is a sending all of that. But if you look at volume, just just straight up volume, Kyron's probably the better example. But you look at just straight up volume and you ask yourself, can this be sustained? And the answer to that twenty five percent of the time might be yes. But if seventy five percent of the time and these like mind simulations that you're doing is no, then make that means that you should maybe bump them down a little bit, and then you think about like the receiving angle and then adding receiving backs to that back. You just have to think about, like, how did this situation change and is this actually sustainable?

00:40:49
Speaker 2: Maybe a better example actually is Jerry Judy.

00:40:51
Speaker 1: Where I haven't been in on Jerry Judy, and I feel like I'm kind of on an island with it. But Judy's numbers last year, like his per route run numbers, his efficiency marks, they were not any better than what we typically see from Judy. What was different with Judy last year? Well, he had Jamis for periods of time. You know, there was no other pass catchers. You know, Cedric Tillman gets hurt. And if you look at his splits with him without jamis massively different. With him without Cedric Tillman massively different. And then if you look at his per route run numbers, they've they've been the same, nothing changed there. He ran more routes in Cleveland last year. And then I asked myself, Okay, is that sustainable. I'm just asking questions at the end of the day to see like can this be repeated? And oftentimes when something crazy happens the previous year where we're like, whoa this year five breakout for Jerry Judy just happened. That came out of nowhere. Maybe there's a reason for it, that's just it was kind of wild.

00:41:44
Speaker 3: You know, they don't want you asking those questions, dude. Yeah, And once you start asking those, especially if if somebody wins the league with a player like that, then then they don't want you asking that. But you're right, and my biggest concern for this Cleveland Browns team is that what are we seeing for the last I mean forever from this team when they have like a bunch of different quarterbacks and no real starting quarterback, is that they go out there and they start the best guy and then when that guy inevitably fails, which this team has a four and a half over under with most sportsbook four and a half win total, right, what do they do? They open up the clown car and that happens at the worst possible time, and fansy football, it's like, right, like like last year, Dorian Thompson, Robinson and Bailey Zappi come out, like, what do you think is going to happen when Joe Flacco gets to the point of the season when he's he's three and eleven.

00:42:29
Speaker 2: It's scary.

00:42:30
Speaker 1: There's at the very least coop there's variance to that, right, Like that's the thing is that, like we don't have to say like, oh, it's definitely gonna happen. It's just we know there's a lot more volatility to that as opposed to another wide out in the same exact range that has a really stud quarterback that you feel good about.

00:42:49
Speaker 3: You know.

00:42:49
Speaker 2: It's just that's it, you know exactly.

00:42:51
Speaker 3: I mean again, if football, and again now that you're a best ball burrow with us, you understand that the season is not created equally throughout right those last three games, you know what I mean, that's where the money's made. So you know, especially in situations like that where I'm like, okay, things could be incredible with Flacco, but when Dylan Gabriel gets his one game and then so and then Shad gets his game or whoever else, like you don't even know what you're going to get. Like with Jamis last year, Najoku was incredible. Then Jamis came in through you know, one of the games he threw them five targets and Nadjoker calt won and it's like you just you feel like you're completely rug pulled by that situation. So it is, it is a highly volatile situation.

00:43:30
Speaker 1: Since we're talking about it right now, I got to ask you this. So the wide receiver position seems pretty efficient, like when you just look at the rankings, the wide receiver rankings in like the top thirty, top forty. I asked this to Dagle actually when I had him on perspectives, and he didn't he just didn't have an answer, like like and it's fine, like you don't have to have an answer, but like, what wide receivers in that range do you actually feel bad about?

00:43:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'm trying to get over the blind spot I have for rushing production, but I just any of those guys that like Xavier Worthy and Jamis and Williams, I'm trying to get over it, but I just have a hard time with it. I will say this, there's a group of players and people actually hate this answer. So I'm glad you glad you asked JJ because I definitely want to the first time on your show, I definitely want to get as many people off my side as possible. So let's talk about Josh downs right now.

00:44:20
Speaker 2: Oh, let's do that. This is great. We haven't talked enough about Yeah, let's do it.

00:44:23
Speaker 3: So there's a number of players, and again, I love Josh Downs as a player. I have a ton of them Dynasty. I'm rooting for this guy, right, I have a lot of guys exactly like this because I've seen so many times this path, and it creates a discount that you can take advantage of guys that starred as pure slot guys and then get a bigger role. Ceedee Lamb stuck behind to some degree behind Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper. He ran ninety four percent of his routes from the slot as a rookie. Next thing you know, it's Wheels up right, Jackson's Smith and Jigba Chris Godwin stuck for a couple of years and then became a full time player, right. And in those situations, what we look for the best way to find breakouts is look for these small sample sized guys that look really good in the metrics, and when their role grows, everything grows. Right Like Mark Andrews, perfect example of a guy who you know, everything look good on paper, got a bigger role, right, So we look for that. The problem with some of these guys, though, is that is the intention of the team to grow this role and expand the role. And you look at certain guys like Khalil Shakir, Jane Reid, I know, jayde reid Man, that's.

00:45:22
Speaker 2: The one I didn't mean to cut off. It's just like the easiest he he can.

00:45:27
Speaker 3: Well, the thing is he converges on my on my blot, my like issue with guys that don't get a bigger role and also guys that that survive on that car right, it's visible to me, you know what I mean, Like Reid is like that. You triggered me a little bit there with the Jade.

00:45:43
Speaker 2: Sorry you talk about Colo.

00:45:46
Speaker 3: Like you look at what he does, and you know, like you look at where they utilize him, and he's just coming in for pure pass downs, playing the slot, oftentimes going up against nickel corners and linebackers, and and that's obviously incredible when you're looking at his separation score, you know what I mean is targets per route run because you know, he's he's pretty much only coming in for pass plays and he's getting looks and the players are designed for him and yards. That all looks great, but they don't. We don't have any indication that they have any interest in moving him to a full time role. And what I mean by that is for three wide receiver sets he plays slot and then he stays on the field for two wide receiver sets and goes out wide and plays flanker. He's never gonna play split ends. But like you see it with Chris Godwin, Cooper Cup, Ceedee Lamb JSN, like it's the best role for fantasy right Cooper Cup the best all time season. He ran the fourth most slot routes of any wide receiver. Ceedee Lamb also fourth most with the with the third season there, So like that's kind of the modern cheat code with these guys, you got to predict that to happen. And with a guy like Josh Downs. We actually saw last year that Michael Pittman missed a game, so it's Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce as the full time guys. Josh Downs is kind of a part time guy. Michael Pittman missed a game, they put an at any Mitchell in that spot. They didn't elevate Downs, and then later Pierce Misster game and they put Mitchell in that role. So downs, if he doesn't get a role change just based on what they like, if they don't just change his snaps on their own, he's actually two injuries away from getting an elevation. And it just scares me, mainly because how much I have of him a dynasty, but like I just I worry that his ADP is getting a little steamed up based on these metrics that might not translate to a full time role. Like if you actually put him out wide and now he's getting covered by like Christian and Zalez and these guys, like is even going to be as efficient. So there's a lot of questions with those type players. And I can see both both sides of it, but I need to have an inkling that there's going to be a change, Like at least give me a JSN situation where I can I can say he'll leap frog Lockett, Like are the Colts going to make Alec Pierce a part time guy this year? If anyone, I'm praying for a beat writer to come out and say, hey, you know, they've been working downs out wide and they're going to have Pierce in the field stretcher that sporadically comes on, or I'd love to hear that, because I would draft Downs everywhere. Right now.

00:48:01
Speaker 1: I think that's one hundred that's great. Analysis is one hundred percent valid. Like I felt the same way. You know, I've had people come to me. I don't know if you've heard this, but the the people wanting Josh Downs to play the Wandel Robinson role and like like if Daniel Jones, which that's not how this works, but like you know, if Daniel Jones coming over to Indye, Let's say Daniel Jones gets to start, and they're like, well, what if Josh Downs plays the Wandel Robinson role?

00:48:24
Speaker 2: And I'm like, I don't want him to play the one. I don't want some low.

00:48:30
Speaker 1: A dot like like you know, Mickey Mouse type stuff to a great route runner who we have high hopes for as an individual talent. Whereas Wandel Robinson, you know, I liked him as a prospect enough, but like you know, he's a super undersized dude who is more of that tweener than he has like this pure you know, great, Like I think rich Reebar has made the comparison of like what if Josh Downs and not to say this is like the like there's even a fifty percent outcome of this, but like give him a ten percent outcome or five percent outcome. What if he's like the next Antonio Brown, right where like right, that's I want that, That's what I think is possible.

00:49:06
Speaker 3: Exactly give him that role, like me, exactly make him godwin, and then Pittman could be Mike Evans, right, That's right.

00:49:13
Speaker 1: So like like like the talent that's to say that, like the talent for Downs is evident, and so my stances, I at least don't want to be super below market when the talent level is there. But at the same time, the situation is garbage if it were only Michael Pittman and then some random flanker that they had that we didn't really care much about. But like Ady Mitchell was actually good in some like open rate metrics and stuff like that last year, and you know, I wasn't like in love with him as a prospect, but I don't think they're just gonna give up on him, you know in year two, after he at least showed something and he had some really I mean, we've seen the highlights when Anthony Richardson was starting, and like Adie Mitchell's wide open and he's just not hitting them. And then Alec Pierce was really efficient last year in that role, and then you get you add Tyler Warren to the mix this year, you know, like and then now there's more coach speak about Anthony Richardson being healthy and maybe he actually you.

00:50:04
Speaker 2: Know, might have a chance to be all that stuff.

00:50:07
Speaker 1: It brings a lot of volatility to that situation, and so I don't think that's irrelevant when you know, Josh Downs might be drafted next to like an Ameca Buka where there's like a men's upside if this Godwin stuff is like goes south, right, Like, that's where to me it's scary if he drops that tier. Like if you're drafting Josh Downs versus a Jaden Higgins or Trey Harris, I think it's a little bit different. But if you're you know, and like I can still make the argument for the for the rookies.

00:50:35
Speaker 2: But like like in in season long, that is right, But like Downs gets pushed in some in some drafts like like quite a bit, and that's that's where it's a little bit scary for sure.

00:50:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, Down's definitely one of those guys that I will draft, especially in Best Ball. He like, there's a whole I kind of keep three lists guys I'm willing to reach a little bit for. I don't too much reaching in Best Ball though, because I don't like leading that value. But yeah, right, then there's guys where if they slide a little bit, I'm taking them. And then even the guys that I flat out if they fall more than if you If I'm sitting here on like twenty picks of ADP value, I say, okay, you know what I mean, because yeah, you look at the guy that won Best Ball Mania last year, and it's like people just didn't like drafting James Connor Adam Thielen, and he got like generational value on those players, you know. Like, so it's like at a certain point you got to be like, okay, you know, like, but so Downs is one of those guys that I'm willing to take for sure. But I do worry. I worry about these guys. And again that's such a huge It goes back to the tight end conversation where it's like in Dynasty, focus on talent, focus on what we know, focus on the historical hit rates, focus on you know, JJ's prospect guide, like focus on that and just get as many of those guys as you can and then and then and then wait and then wait and hope that things open up in redraft. We can't wait. We need to find that convergence now. Yeah.

00:51:49
Speaker 1: Yeah, And look, I love Downs too as a prospect, so like there's a lot of backbone to him being just like a good player.

00:51:56
Speaker 2: You know, and you want to you want to invest in that.

00:51:58
Speaker 1: You don't want to my my My general stance, like I said, is that I don't want to be left behind even in season long, you know, with a player that I believe is that talented. But when the situation is what it is with Downs right now, I also don't want to be overweight with that kind of player.

00:52:12
Speaker 3: It feels the worst when you're like, oh, I like that guy, and then it's like why didn't I take him? Well because I talked myself out of it. Yeah, exactly, that situation or something is Yeah, that is where it's like it is. It is a tough game. You know, it's a tough balancing act. But you got to you got you gotta find as many people that you feel exactly right about as possible. Right the full the trifecta of like, man, I love everything going on here. I love this player, I love this situation, I love everything.

00:52:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, so we have these suspensions. I want to just touch it on really quick, these looming suspensions. Quinchahn Judkins we know the least about right now. He doesn't even have a contract, so he's technically not even like a Cleveland Brown, so it's really weird. And then you get Rashid Rice, who sounds like it's going to happen now that he played guilty. Jordan Addison, it sounds like something's going to happen there. We don't have to go player by player or anything here, but like in a season long league, so let's not talk about best ball, where we know like the money is towards the end of the year, and obviously the money is still towards the end of the year in season long, but there is a churn with bench. There's not as many spots in your roster and stuff, and so I think it's a bigger question.

00:53:15
Speaker 2: In season long than it is arguably in best ball.

00:53:18
Speaker 1: We're also in best ball, like you're gonna get filler players when those guys are out with just guys who perform well that might you might have never predicted to do well in a season long league. So how are you approaching guys like Rice and Addison in a season long league. Are they the kinds of guys that you're like, I'll take the discount or are they the kind of guys that you just kind of ignore And yes, they might have good value at the end of the season, but I'll let someone else deal with that early season headache.

00:53:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I'm with you on compounding uncertainties, right, Like I consume allow of your content. It's like, if you're going to the more risk you take on, the more reward you need to have. And with some of these players, like I'll say Roshie Rice, we don't know the suspension, right, but what we do know is this guy is a stud, right, and he tricked all the He tricked all of our algorithms by them completely changing how he's used from college to now like that that's how That's how they got us, right, But like it is, his role is great. I mean, the second most targets of any player when he got hurt. I know it was a people say it's a small sample size of the three games, but in the season prior to that, he was also very good at the end, Like if you take the sample size of the end of the game the season the next. So a guy like that, I actually am more willing to to take a risk on depending on how many game if he's in misslf half a season one games, like I am one more willing to take that risk he is. I think he can come right back in and immediately take over and the and the risk to me, of course, if he's coming back healthy off his injury, the risk to me's worth it. With some of these other guys like Addison, to me is a good example where it's not just this idea of like I'm waiting for this guy to be back and then we're and then it's ask money. Right, Like if like picture Justin Jefferson with Kirk Cousins, if he were suspended three games, we would all be drafting him. It wouldn't matter. We would just draft him because we know when he gets back, it's Tucket Chucket football. It's it's Justin Jefferson. It's awesome. In this case, we've got a situation where it's a new quarterback, a quarterback I like, but we still don't know. I've never seen him. He could come out and be you know, Patrick Mahomes where he sits one year. In the first year he throws fifty touchdown bounses. Or he could come out and be like a lot of first time quarterbacks and be just fine, you know, not to mention, we don't know who the second target is, Like, could be PJ. Hockinson, could be Addison. So now you're sitting here and you're taking zeros for X number of weeks and when he comes back, you put him right in your lineup, and then he doesn't perform and you get you get smoked again for a fourth week, and now you've got to go find somebody else. It's like situations like that. I don't like bettt. I don't like taking zeros unless I know I'm in the money. And with some of these guys like Quinjo Chunkins is like he's a you know this, he was hard to draft before all this. He was going back to back with Caleb Johnson and I'm looking at the Browns, and I'm looking at the Arthur Smith and the Steve I just I couldn't really pull that trigger. I do have some exposure to him, But I think I have an exposure where I'm just gonna keep the keeping a guy just check in and make sure that number is getting smaller and small as we go along. But yeah, like so for me, I need to know that i'm I'm the risk is going to be worth the reward. And with some of these guys, I really I really don't see it. Same with a guy like Brandon a You like, I just I don't find myself going there unless I can get it at like the craziest discount where I'm I know I have a ton of bench spots, you know, then then I then I'm like okay. But like I just if I don't truly believe in the in the player, like if you go back and you know to the years where like Tom Brady was suspended or Zeke Elliott, Yeah of course, yeah, I'll wait for Zeke no problem, you know when he was awesome. But Jordan Aison, I don't know that.

00:56:50
Speaker 1: I feel like Addison is almost like the Mendoza line too, Like he's he's like a I can under I could see someone wanting like if you like Addison a lot like you could, I could see someone making the opposite argument, right, Like I think that he's a really good like like kind of lit miss or like line to draw on the stand of like a player better than this or worse than this is kind of the direction you would go if you.

00:57:13
Speaker 2: Want to hold onto that value or not hold on to that as they serve that suspension.

00:57:16
Speaker 3: That's a good point, right, because like Addison does have those games, like you know, three Browns, He's got these like crazy, And that's why best Ball. I'm glad you eliminated best Ball from the discussion because something like that where Addison, you know, like look at T Higgins, be like you had to have T Higgins if you want a big money last year because he scored three touchdowns the week it mattered. So like a guy like Addison of course could do that. But in season long, I just I don't know. We'll see what the suspension is too.

00:57:42
Speaker 2: I think it's fair.

00:57:43
Speaker 1: I think those are all fair points, and yeah, I think obviously the suspension will matter. I think most are assuming three games at this point. What do you think with Rice? If you were to just throw a number out there, how long do you think it's going to make.

00:57:52
Speaker 3: I think I'm thinking six. I wonder think I wonder if they'll pull back the Remember that old trick they used to pull where they would come out and make a big deal that a guy's getting six games, and then and then on on a random Friday over the summer, they just quietly reduced it to like four, you know, or whatever, and they'll do that trick used to I mean, that was a great trick back in the day, because it's like, hey, we're punishing this guy, you know, for the arficer. She goes like, hey, he got six games. But then they then they quietly put it to the number that they want. I wonder if maybe they'll do bring that old trick back. I always like that.

00:58:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean obviously, you know, Drew Davenport, for instance, there's a lot of great work with with the the legal side of football and fantasy football.

00:58:27
Speaker 2: So to take a look at what he's doing.

00:58:29
Speaker 3: We're not lawyers, so we don't cotly don't know for sure.

00:58:31
Speaker 2: We're just kind of we're just.

00:58:32
Speaker 3: And this one feels a little different because people got hurt, you know, That's why.

00:58:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, yeah, it's it's I mean, it's it's also like, I don't know how you feel about it.

00:58:39
Speaker 2: I always just feel kind.

00:58:40
Speaker 1: Of dirty talking about some of this stuff, Like it's like like the Quinn shot Judkins stuff like, I don't want to freaking talk about what what's being accused here.

00:58:47
Speaker 3: It's horrible, you know, awful man. And again it's the worst format for it is dynasty because like I think of the way some of these like careers ended for some of these people, and I don't want to get into the point where I'm like, you know, trying to figure out if this guy's like partying too much or drinking too a certain Yeah, it really is a part of the game that I don't I don't love. So let's get back in the spreadsheets.

00:59:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's do that, all right, before I let you gokoop, give me some of your favorite targets this year in season long leagues.

00:59:16
Speaker 3: Yeah, so, by by default with the Josh down situation, if you are on the looking at the way I am, I am drafted a good amount of Michael Pittman at wide receiver fifty. I mean, this is a guy that got back to back one hundred and forty hundred and fifty targets last year, led the team in targets with a broken back. Backs are tricky, but you know, from what I understand, it's a bone, it's not a disc or a muscle or anything like that. So hopefully he can get healthy. We watched this guybi wide Receiver thirteen with Gardner Minshew throwing under two hundred yards of game, so real possibility that he returns good value there. One guy I really like a lot. I posted a article aslo I rarely do this, but I posted a thread just kind of breaking down my article with some because I had some good videos. So I was like, you know what, let's use the videos on the old social media machine. But Kenneth Walker is a guy. Yes, awesome man. I mean that scheme is so damn friendly, Like just the personnel bringing in. You've seen this fullback Robbie Oots they brought in. Yeah, he's a big seventy pounds, a J Barner, great blocking tight end. They grafted Gray's Abel who apparently in my research, this guy did a the tied for third highest vertical leap for aligneman. Ever, like he's just he'll be perfect as a pulling guard because what Kubiak does, he runs his zone just like devastating with the fullbacks. And the lineman and the moment you stack the line with six guys and you know a guy in each gap he runs a gap concept and he pulls a guard, or he pulls a tackle, or he does like a wham block and he just it's so easy to rip off chunk plays in that scheme. So I got a whole article. If you go just type in Fantasy Alarm Kenneth Walker player profile, it should come right up on Google and and that's free, and it's I turned all the videos into gifts for everybody, so there's something to watch too while you read it. I know, beautiful at the beautiful. It's hard to get people to read these. I'm jaj. I still remember something you said like four or five years ago where people were like, it was originally when people came out, We're like, we're gonna everything's moved to video and no one reads anymore, And you were like, yeah, well, I'm still gonna write because everything I say on the video and everything I do on the shows, and everything I do as a guest, that all stems from the research I do and the writing that I do for the guides and the emails. So I'm still gonna do that, and that's always been I'm a writer first and foremost, so I've always I remember that you said that the three things I remember saying it was that Another thing you said that I said that I definitely remember is to try to separate your audience for you know, if possible, get them somewhere where you can deliver the work to them directly, right, Yeah, you know. And then the third thing that I always remember that you say is to never tweet.

01:01:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, never tweet.

01:01:51
Speaker 3: Never tweet.

01:01:52
Speaker 2: You should never tweet. And I break that. I broke that role this week, and I need to I need to not break that role ever again.

01:01:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, never tweet.

01:01:59
Speaker 2: I appreciate that, man.

01:02:00
Speaker 1: I think with writing, like it's definitely like you know, obviously I focus so much on the podcast. We're doing so much more YouTube and video stuff, and it's really really important to do all that stuff from just like a business standpoint and how people consume things.

01:02:14
Speaker 2: But I think if you want to just like be a good analyst, Like I'm not saying this.

01:02:17
Speaker 1: To you, I'm just saying this to the audience obviously, but like like if you're if anyone out there is just like trying to be a good analyst. I think that writing is so impactful because it allows you to understand how to formulate arguments better.

01:02:29
Speaker 2: Right, you can't always get that in just a conversation.

01:02:33
Speaker 1: Plenty of you guys have listened to podcasts before where you can tell if someone's prepared or not. And usually the people who are prepared are the ones who have written stuff, who have done the research obviously, and they put that the thoughts to paper, and they can articulate those thoughts a lot more easily because they put it to paper. Sometimes, like even if you're not publishing the thing, just kind of putting it down and kind of thinking about it from an argument perspective. It's helpful, man, it's really helpful.

01:02:59
Speaker 3: And you can go back read it. I'll go back I write, yeah, you know, like fifty thousand words on tight ends. I'll go back and pull up my article before I do a show and say, hey, where are those numbers that I put down? Where are those thoughts that I had? And I pull it all up and it's ready to go. It's like it's just you're teaching yourself and you're learning through the process of research and writing, and then it's just so much easier because we're doing hours and hours and hours of this stuff. If I were to sit down and research for every individual show, I'd be doing hours and hours of research for every show if I do exactly If I just do the research and then turn that content into a tweet, turn it into a video, turn into whatever, now I'm compounding my efforts. So I would encourage people out there to start there. Start with Reddit, because they'll tell you what you're doing right and doing wrong.

01:03:42
Speaker 1: Comes full circle, always goes back to Reddit. Coop Man, it was great to talk to chop it up. I'm so glad you were able to finally hop on perspectives. Let ever know where they can find you, what you're working on, all that good stuff.

01:03:54
Speaker 3: Absolutely so if you follow me on Twitter at koop a fiasco or on Reddit, coop there it is. I always share everything I do that's free, So everything I write on Fantasy Alarm, the YouTube's that's all out there. If you want our Paywalt stuff, then get a copy of our draft guide now at Fantasy Alarm or on Series XEM if you have a subscription of that. Our show is six to eight pm weekdays on Channel eighty seven and we're just talking ball all the time, be Howard Bender, Jim Bowden. It's good stuff. So really appreciate you having me on, man, And I appreciate getting a chance to talk to your audience because I know that it's a lot of sharp folks.

01:04:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, No, I appreciate it, and they'll appreciate hearing that for sure. You can find all my stuff over on lateround dot com, follow me on Twitter on blue Sky at Late Round QB. Make sure you are checking out the Late Round Draft Guide when you're on lateround dot com.

01:04:41
Speaker 2: That is for sale right now. It's updated weekly.

01:04:43
Speaker 1: If you're listening to this on Friday when this podcast goes out, there is an update with that draft guide that has gone out, as will be the case every Friday. Thanks for listening everyone, have a great weekend as always, thanks for tuning

01:04:58
Speaker 3: In too, and printed the bat to the back