The State of the Free Agent Market as 2025 Nears

00:00:21
Speaker 1: Hello everyone. On episode one three zero the Hammer Territory Podcast. I am your host, Brad Rowland, coming to you on a Saturday evening, Yes, Saturday evening, and I'm joined by Scott Coleman as always, Hello sir, how are you hello? Brad?

00:00:34
Speaker 2: I'm doing well. How was your holiday? How was your Christmas? How is Brad Rowland's world these days?

00:00:40
Speaker 1: You know, we're living the dream out here. I am fresh off of Atlanta Hawk's home victory that I covered in person. So we're recording this podcast on a Saturday. We navigated Christmas. We'll see how the next holiday goes. You know. It's that time of year where days don't matter, which is why you and I are recording on Saturday. Who knows who knows what day it is right now? No one's going to work. How's Arizona this time of years? Scott?

00:01:00
Speaker 2: It was beautiful, It's lovely. Actually, it's well, it's not a surprise. I mean, I swear like every person over the age of like fifty five is in Arizona right now. Makes sense. It was seventy degrees today, beautiful day. It was the Snoop dog Gin and Juice Bowl game just down the road. For me, I did not make it out to go see Snoop and all of that festivity. But yeah, this is for all of the days of hell in like July and August, when it's one hundred and eleven degrees out here, Arizona in July or in December is the place to be and try to enjoy it as much as we can.

00:01:40
Speaker 1: That's right. And you know, you and I talked twice last week, and we did. We're pretty front about it. We talked twice at the same time. We did an episode we published it. We also banked an episode that published a few days later on matt Olsen. We should just say now those two shows are relevant at this point in time. We did a show it was mail bag episode for the holidays. We did a mett Olsen Deep Dive as part of our Player Capsule off season series. Those are available for you. Also, we encourage you to subscribe to Hammer Territory anywhere you find your podcasts. We're on Apple and Spotify, we're on Amazon Music, we're on YouTube. Please like the video there if you want to see our shining faces. But you know, still all quiet on the Braves front at this point in time. We weren't sure if they might stick something in. Once Christmas got here, we were pretty sure they were going to do anything for a few days, as most of the time that's what happens. But there have been some players who have signed deals since the last time that you and I talked and made Braves fans mad in the interim to varying degrees. So quickly we'll run that down, and then later on in the show we'll kind of go through the state of the market. Who's still available, because twenty twenty four is almost over, Scott, this might be the last time you and I talked this year. We'll see, But anyway, a quartet of players have signed bigger deals. Corn Burns coming to your home in Arizona for a lot of a lot of money task for Hernandez back to the Dodgers Walker viewer of Boston and Jock Peterson to Texas. I guess the Burns was the most recent and the kind of the biggest name. It was a late night one, your guy Jeff Passon, I think it was like one point thirty in the morning, whatever it was when that broke kind of surprise to the Diamondbacks, not that Braves were supposed to be interested, Like we kind of did not believe any Braves interest was ever gonna happen. There probably on Corban Burns, but uh, your takeaway is that, I think the right one the National League, man, like, this is a team that wasn't the Areazona has been good for a couple of years, but they were not supposed to be like a contender. And Capitol Letters, Oh, Arizona spending a mind on Corbin Burns like it might be Gautl in the National League.

00:03:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, the National League is going to be ridiculous. You have the Braves, you have the Phillies, you have the Mets. That to me feels like three very probable playoff teams unless something very weird happens. You have the reigning champion Dodgers and their unlimited money. You have the San Diego Padres. Who I mean, if there's beat the Dodgers in the playoffs last year, I think San Diego would have gone all the way. Maybe that's hot take ish, but I mean they whooped the Braves and that was just such a good complete team. We're actually going to talk about a former San Diego Padre a little bit later on the show as a possible fit for the Braves. And then you have the Diamondbacks, who are a year removed from being in the World Series. And even if that was a bit of a surprise, you know, you talk about a team that now has Burns and Zach Gallen, Merrill Kelly. I mean, that's as good as a one two three as you're going to find in a sneaky good lineup too. And then Milwaukee always finds a way to be competitive and involved. So you know, no real take on Corbyn Burns. He lives in Scottsdale. It sounds like he took less money to go to the Diamondbacks to stay home. He gets to do spring training just down the road. He gets to play all of his games down the road. You know, if you're a San Francisco Giants fan, you're probably not sleeping super well because the Giants were heavily favored to land Burns earlier on. And it sounds like the Blue Jays lost out on like the five hundredth free agent this winter as well. But yeah, man, big takeaway the National League is ridiculous. And one other just quick note that Max Freed, old friend Max Freed ended up getting the most guaranteed dollars between Burns and Blake Snell this winter. So good on Max a very wealthy man now and hopefully he does good things for the Yankees.

00:05:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the reporting that was out there about Burns is probably right. I can't imagine Arizona was the biggest pure dollar bidder, like it was a pretty fair book docract for Burns as well. It's it's got an opt out no trade clause, I'm sure. And this is a reminder to us too, but also to fans in general, like just because you would have done a deal, doesn't mean that player was going to do that deal with the team that you that you were for. And this is the Braves podcast, so it applies to Braves, Like we don't really know what the Braves have offered anyone, because Alex is not gonna tell us. But it's just a subtle reminder because I don't think Birds was in the mix for the Braves, But it applies. It applies to other players to like, you know, for instance, Walker Bruder we'll get to in a second. I have a feeling Walker brulerill probably got offered a contract by the Braves as my as my best guess was it more than when he got in Boston. We have no idea, but like it doesn't mean that he doesn't you know, the Braves aren't trying to sign players like they probably have made a lot offers to players and also guys take less money. I mean, Max, I think pretty clearly took the most money, which is, by the way, not anything that I have issue with at all. There's no requirement to give anybody a discount ever, but like some things are prioritized for different players, different agents, et cetera. Burns might be to get back on the market in two years, like he's he hasn't actually been super dominant last couple of years, Like if he suddenly finds it again, hits the market to get in two years anyway, Not a Korbyn Bird's podcast, but as reminder, like basically, you know, total money is not always it's often the indicator. And I think our mutual frame and college Stephen Tolwart's been right on this on Twitter. Every time you get a leak that says like why did so and so players sign this contract? And uh, you know, the framing is always like oh, they wanted to William about competit situations, and Steven's like, or they paid them two hundred million dollars, And I think he's generally right about that. I mean Max is a great example. Like Max said all the right things at his Yankees press conference, but in the end, it's like, hey, they gave him two hundre million dollars, that's why you went there. But anyway, it's not It's always.

00:07:15
Speaker 2: More nuanced, right, Why did one Soto go to the New York Mets because they gave him seven hundred and sixty five million dollars, Brad, that is why one Soto is with the Mets and not with some other team.

00:07:27
Speaker 1: If he was offered five hundred million dollars from somebody else and seven sixty five from another team. Look, not everyone in the world would turn down the extra two sixty five, but most people, you know, most people would just take the most money. It is what it is. That's natural. I understand at that stratsphere, like it's all kind of the same. I think we've probably acknowledged that day to day, but we're not in that tax bracket and I'm not. Maybe you are Scottish.

00:07:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, hey, listen, man, if you're an accountant in your job hunting, and one firm offers you, I don't know, one hundred and fifty k, and the other one offers you one hundred and the other one offers you seventy five. Well, you're probably going to the one offering one fee because maybe money isn't everything. But I you know, I don't think a lot of these guys would play for fun if they weren't getting a lot of money at the end of the day.

00:08:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I don't think Corden Burns would have taken half of the salary to go back to Arizona. But if all things are relatively equal, you could play at home. That's a It's kind of the Charlie Morton thing, right like for the last few years, Like I think Charlie probably got comparable offers from other teams, but he's like, hey, I like to play close to my house, and I have a spring training close to my house. It's very familiar anyway. Taskernandez is the one, Like no one was surprised by three years, sixty six million dollars to go back to the Dodgers, like everyone thought he was going to do that. Would that have been a deal that I could have maybe reasonably argue that the Braves could have given out. Yes, But do I think that that he would have signed the same deal with the Braves.

00:08:48
Speaker 2: No.

00:08:49
Speaker 1: I think if you got the same offer from the Dodgers and the Braves, he was going back to the Dodgers. Does that sound reasonable? Yeah?

00:08:55
Speaker 2: I mean he said as much about twenty five times after winning the World Series with al that he wanted to return, and and yeah, I would have happily taken Tiscar Hernandez looking back on it a year ago, he was a free agent who really did not have much of a market. Yep, you know, maybe it was. It would be a different story if the Braves would have gone out and signed him instead of moving all the money around to get Kelnick or whatever other priority they would have had to change. But yeah, good for ti Oscar a really good hitter. Some questions about him defensively, but I think you hit the nail on the head. I don't know if anyone really expected him to leave Los Angeles.

00:09:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, no one really did, honestly, with the with that, I saw no one in the in the insider realm did the other two that I think I more got more Braves reactions that I saw wet He's already Walker Buhler was a guy that you know, he was the rare free agent that the Braves were actually kind of tied to a few different times. From credible reporting, he was very alexy, kind of a rebuilding project because he had you know, high highs in the past, et cetera. Up but candidly was not very good the last couple of years between injury and even this last year. He was really good in the playoffs before that was not a good picture with the Dodgers. Let's just be real about that. He got one year and twenty one million, and you and I kind of not like disagreed, but it was interesting our reactions were different. I actually thought he was gonna get more than this, not that he necessarily should have, but I thought he was probably going to get more. And he got like, oh, one year deal with Boston. It's a lot of money for him, for sure. And I think you're on the other side, like, okay, twenty one million dollars, Like, why is it nyone mad about this? Is that? Is that a reasonable of what you kind of said about Walker Buller and the reaction.

00:10:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean my mentions, Brad, Oh, they were bad.

00:10:32
Speaker 1: Everybody's wre mine were two.

00:10:35
Speaker 2: I guess, Okay, would I have taken Walker Bueller on the Braves, Yes, no questions asked. It felt like a Brave's type of move. A once very talented pitcher. But at the same time, he has now had Tommy John surgery twice, and the last time that Walker Bueller was a good starting pitcher in the majors was twenty twenty one. That's a long time ago. It's not a guarantee that he's suddenly going to be great again. So I know that again, if the Braves have made some moves already, then I think the reaction would have been more muted, of like yes, ah, okay, like I would have taken Walker Bueller, but we've already signed this player and traded for this player. But of course, because the Braves have done literally nothing, I every time there's something announced that it's just like pouring more and more gasoline on the fire, and the takes get hotter and hotter. So you know, if you told me, I think I said on the podcast coming into the offseason that I could see Walker Bueller being a member of the Braves on opening day twenty one million. It was basically a qualifying offer that he signed from Boston. I think that I think twenty one million was a qualifying offer, and he signed for twenty one point zero five million just for I don't know why. He just probably wanted to show that he was worth more than a qualifying offer. But yeah, I mean a little bit of a surprise. And I think you're probably right that the Braves were interested and maybe even offered a contract, But clearly Buehler was looking for a one year deal to bounce back, and he's thirty years old, and who knows, Maybe we're talking about Walker Buehler as a free agent target this time in a year if he has a good season with Boston.

00:12:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's nuanced. That's what I brought up the thinking about earlier. But like you know, not every offerer's created the same. Uh. If you gave me a choice and said okay, yes or no Braves one for twenty one on Walker Bueler, I think I would have leaned yes, but not in a not in a way where I would like be throwing the parade. If Fay side of that contract, I think we would have come on the show and said, hey, reasonable gamble, high upside, very little risk. It's a one year deal. I mean all one year, and there's always some risk. But like whe year deals don't have a lot of risk. It would have been totally reasonable to me. It would have been a very alexy But also it's not crazy that they wouldn't offer that. And by the way they might have. They might have offered one year a twenty one million dollars. We have no idea, so it's this nuanced thing, and you're one hundred percent right. The reaction was what it was because the Brace have not done anything, and I get it. The there is building frustration that is happening in the fan base, and I totally understand it. But that's just the reality. If this deal happens three weeks ago, even if he signs in Boston three weeks ago, the reaction is less. If he signs the Boston six weeks ago, the reaction is probably none. Like it's just what it is. But that's where we are. The other one that has Braves ties because if it's a former Brave is Jock Peterson. So Jock signs for two for thirty seven with an opt out in Texas and on the offensive side, Jock would have been a great fit, right Mash is Ridy's great here last year World Series champion Jock Peterson should be his full name anyway. Yeah, but like Scott, we did reference Jock on a previous episode when we did some free agent speculation and things like that, and we said this, then we'll say it again now Jock is a DH. Guys like Jock did not play a second and I looked again to make sure I wasn't crazy. He did not play an ending in the outfield this last season zero in twenty twenty three, he played like thirty games and it was like, Hey, the Giants were basically like, we can't do this anymore with Jock in the outfield. So I wrote this down on our docks. You've already seen my thought. But like my comparison for Jock Peterson is essentially he is left handed Horayce Hilaire. And if and I get it that not everyone agreed with us that you couldn't do the Ozuna Hilaia thing. Again, I understand that, but if you saw the Braves effectively give Horayce Hilaire away because he's DH, I don't think the Braves were ever going to be in the market for a pure DH and that's what Jock seems to be. Like, Yeah, you could put him in left field and pray, but like it would be the same situation with with Solai all over again.

00:14:38
Speaker 2: It feels scar Yeah, Jock is probably what Horaye Solaier is defensively. Yeah, put one hundred fly balls out there for Jock and one hundred flyballs out there for Jorge, you probably have similar results. So yeah, I mean I was keeping at like one percent that I mean. Clearly, the Braves do not care a ton about corner out field.

00:15:00
Speaker 1: Defense, but they care a little.

00:15:02
Speaker 2: They do care enough, though, and that yeah, exactly if.

00:15:05
Speaker 1: They cared not at all. Horace Hilarrabie on the team right now, Yes, I think, yeah, I agree.

00:15:11
Speaker 2: I mean we said this before on the show, but I think in a perfect world, Orge would have been good enough in right field. He would have been their corner outfielder this upcoming season, and then he would have taken over d H duty's if you know, in a year's time, if he would have continued to hit. We'll never know, but yeah, good luck to Jock in Texas. I think that's a really good spot for him. He's going to bat in the middle of a really talented lineup, and yeah, thirty seven million dollars for him is a really nice payday at this point in his career. Yeah.

00:15:41
Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, if he was even a thirtieth percentile corner outfield defender, then yeah, get sign me up for this contract. Because the Braves do need someone who can mash rights, the Braves do need pop, and they had the relationship with him. I would totally understand the negative reaction I saw if he could even function defensively. I just don't think I think the I think the not to appeal to authority, Scott, But like when a team doesn't play you a single ending in the outfield for a full season, that probably tells you what they think about his defense, right, I just I think it's probably just reasonable to think he's not an Alfhild And I get that there's like a level of nuance that you have to get to that's beyond the Internet. Like I joked about that, it felt like there was a very sizeable Facebook reaction to John person signing with the Rangers. Whatever that means to you as a listener, but I get it, like he would help the offense. There's no argument. And by the way, so Horace Hilaire like I. You know, the player that they eventually start in left field on opening day will not be as good of a hit or probably as Jock Pearson. It's just that you're weighing different options there, and we saw what they thought of the defense of one. Dah didn't want another one, it seems to me. And also one more time, I know they like I know they liked Jock from previous years. They could have offered Jock a contract and we didn't know about it and he could have still gone to Texas. So it wasn't like that, you know, not to pay that drummond to the ground too much here, Scott, maybe more slightly on the defensive, because look, before we get to the rest of the free agents, it's almost twenty twenty five, right January first, and I have been preaching on some level and I'm not Look, we're not talking down to people right now. I get the reaction. We already said that once. Frustration is totally understandable. What I've been saying for a while, and I think you know what you've been saying for a while, Steven Shanna been saying for a while is if the Braves are done nothing in February, then the reactions that I'm seeing now are reasonable, you know what I mean. It's more that I in my cold dead heart, I'm like, all right, I get it, we'll be mad in February if they have done anything. Yeah, And that's where I still am. I mean, not doing anything Christmas week is not going to change that reaction. That is also wholly unsatisfying to the fan base. And I totally understand that, but I still feel that way now, and it's not an excuse. Like even people in the media are starting to get a little bit Nancy, and I get it. But I am of the posture and it won't change that. I'm not going to react to the Braves not spending. I've given this that before. I think last week on the show, I'll to give it to the gal. The Braves were fifth last year in payroll. They were in the basically the second plus tax bracket. Like they they're not suddenly cheap. Maybe they are, Maybe they are, Maybe they are cutting money and we just don't know that. But until we have proof of that, yeah, I personally can't won't jump to that, and uh maybe that's just me being ultra media guy, patient guy, but that's where I am. How do you feel right now in comparison to the anger that we're seeing.

00:18:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Braves have six weeks basically, Yeah, six weeks from right now is Valentine's Day and then like two days later, Pitchers and Catchers starts showing up to Florida. The Braves have six weeks to stop being cheap ass, is how I'm thinking of it.

00:19:02
Speaker 1: That's what That's what Scott Coleman said. Breveryone will not saying that, and I'm kidding it. I think that's a better way of putting it. That people will identify more with you than they will with me.

00:19:11
Speaker 2: I can promise you right now, Brad. We we try to be nuanced on this podcast, because if you go on Socials, you get everything you get the you get everything from The Braves are cheap, screw them, fire Alexanthopolis to the beat drummers of you know what, No, this team does no wrong in Alex and Thopoless we believe, and then there's a whole lot in the middle of those two extremes and.

00:19:35
Speaker 1: We're in the middle. By the way, we try to be in the middle of those two yes.

00:19:40
Speaker 2: And look, man, I promise you, if the Braves do nothing over the next six weeks, we will do a show and be like, what the bleep and bleep and bleep are they doing? Because this is ridiculous. You're in a world series. Window Truest Park is packed every single night from May to September. The battery is packed, the team is good. Spend the bleep in money. I promise you we will do that show in February, but that's six weeks away. Give it six weeks. You don't get bonus points for having your roster finalized by Christmas Day, even if it does make for some better podcast content in November and December. Give it six weeks. See where this team is at come spring training and come opening day, and if it does come to a point though where they have done very very little, it is a it's time then to have the conversation. I think just a lot of the reactions so far, even if it has been painfully quiet, like unbelievably painfully quiet. As two fellas who do a couple of podcasts every week, I promise you. Nobody is rooting for moves more than Brad and I are, so it gives us something to talk about. But at the end of the day, again, you don't get bonus wins for having deals done in November and December. A lot of free agents out there, a lot of trades can still go down in January and even February to March. Give it some time and we'll see what the Braves ultimately do.

00:21:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's well said. I don't have much to add it. Six weeks is a good way to frame it. That's mid February. You start to get into pictures and catchers and all those things by then, and uh, yeah, they have anything. We've all said that too. I'm sure we are painted, probably rightfully as like leaning towards the like everybody, everything will be okay. Guys like I kind of trust Alex, and I do I do. I do think Alex is very good at his job. I'm more on that side, unquestionably than the fire everyone. Alex is on the beach somewhere side, which I think is quite funny, honestly. But what you said is perfect, and I think we've all said it to very degrees. I know Stephen has Stevens probably of the four of us, probably the most the one is itching the most out of the four of us. But yeah, if they don't do anything, we're gonna kill them for it. Like at the same time, like I'll probably point out because it's like in my soul that the brands are still gonna be probably be good even if they don't do anything, which is annoying on some level, because they'll still probably be pretty good. But we are in full agreement that they should not sit on their hands here. They should do stuff. They should spend money. You're right. I get often people make fun of me about the printing money things, but I believe it. The Braves make a lot of money on the battery. The Braves saw that place out I go down there, I see it. They should spend money. They should make moves, and it would not just not just for us for the podcast like great for podcastspodder, but for the team. They have holes, like they have stuff that they need to address. And uh yeah, six weeks is are good. So wherever we are in your calendars, folks, circle mid February and if nothing happens, hold us too account. I don't by the way, you won't need to remind us. But if we haven't done a show by mid February bashing them for not spending or not doing anything, remind us. But we'll do that shows it's going to be coming. It might be a four mat episode or it might just be Stephens screaming full volume by himself on the feed for days on end. Anyway, is that good enough as a as a table setter? Scott for where we are?

00:22:54
Speaker 2: And yeah, should we talk about kind of the Yeah, should we talk about like the state of the free agent market?

00:22:58
Speaker 1: Real quick? Let's do that. Look, the holes were still the same, right, it's it's starting pitching, it's cornrale field, it's relievers. And of course there's a shortstop where there's literally one person. Hawsak Kim's the only short stop available. Scott, breaking news. It's been the same since Willy Damas signed. There's one player.

00:23:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's we will quickly do Hassong Kim because it has been radio silence on.

00:23:22
Speaker 1: Him, like nothing, nothing, and I've looked nothing. Yeah, me too.

00:23:26
Speaker 2: I googled Hassong Kim rumors about four hours ago. There was a report from like early November that the Tigers might be interested. There was a report a week later that the Giants might be interested, but they have since signed Willia Damas, and there's just not a ton of teams like actively looking for shortstops right now. I don't know. I mean, maybe you know, things come together and he takes a shorter like I know, Scott Morris originally came out and said that like he was looking for a four or a five year deal for Hassan him. There's there's no way for a player coming off shoulder surgery and at shortstop, which generally doesn't age very well. But you know, I said, every day that passes is presumably another day that kind of ticks towards the team's sided negotiations, because at some point these players get antsy and want to know where they're going to be playing, where they're going to move their families. So I'm not necessarily ready to do like a full on Hassan Kim breakdown, because I still think shortstop is probably third or fourth on the priority poll for Alex and I'm not even sure he's going to get there at this winner, but he is. As you said, Kim is basically the only shortstop on the free agent market who would be any kind of upgrade for Atlanta.

00:24:46
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that. I mean there are other guys who are comparable to the Arcia, like Jose Glacis is as comparable. Maybe you can argue a little bit better, but I think the only guy who is like clearly better than Arcia is also on Kim and at the reason don't like him. We wouldn't know that. So it's like, all right, maybe there's trades and there's that's that's it. So that's a short breakdown, but that's the listen sture stop. Elsewhere, the starry pitcher market has thinned quite a bit because a lot of guys have side for a lot of money. By the way, the prices and the starry pitcher market had been sky high, and we've discussed that a lot on the show the last few weeks and months. Still the case quickly. The only guy that's projected for big money coming into Gossason is still available is Jack Flaherty, a player that I think would have surprised us if the Braves got in on Jack Flaherty at any point. It's still would surprised me. Do you agree with that? Well, before we move on, I think you maybe if the market falls on him, there's a point where they might jump in, But at the pre November levels, like where it was like five years and one hundred plus million, I don't think that's gonna happen to Jack flarerty in the Braves my personal.

00:25:47
Speaker 2: Guess, Yeah, no, I would agree. The only thing that's mildly interesting about Flarity, other than the fact that he's a pretty good pitcher, he's only twenty nine years old, So if he's maybe looking for a shorter deal to then hit free agency one more time in his early thirties, maybe that would be a reason where instead of looking for five years, he's looking for two or three years, or heck even a one year deal if he really doesn't like the market, and then hit free agency again. Every every winter, there's thirty teams looking for pitching help. So that's one minor outlet too. I could see connecting the dots on Jack Flaherty, But I'm guessing that some team is going to be hungry and desperate enough to do four or five years, and I don't think it's going to be the Braves.

00:26:36
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good way, and that's gonna want to mean about the market, Like, if this is not there for him, maybe it's a pillow contract with the Brave or something like that. Did you know, Scott he pitched with Max Fried in high school? Do you ever hear that story? Anyway?

00:26:48
Speaker 2: Moving on and Lucas Giolito too, right, yeah.

00:26:52
Speaker 1: Sam Teve weird, they're all friends. Okay. After Flarity, you got this midsier market where like you have Jeff Hoffman, who has been a podcast favorite. I know Sean is all all on the Jef Boffman train. He is this year's Ronald Lopez potential starter, but it's been a reliever. Circle him on the list. We talked abou him before. Then you have this like mid tier of like Nick Pavetta and Andrew Heeney, both of them like could get some decent money, eight figure contracts probably for those guys. Paveta has a qualifying offer. I don't know if that's the Braves off. I kind of like Andrew like as a sneaky target. Not sexy at all, don't get me wrong, but like a maybe we think he's better than Charlie Morton in twenty twenty five kind of thing for Andrewghini at a similar price point, you know, low eight figures for something like that. I'm assuming you're not moved by either one of those players, but they're kind of in their own tier of like they're gonna get some money this offseason and and maybe from the Brais or may may not be, but if they're trying to find some safety, I think Pavetta and Heeney year other than Morton, are kind of that like mid tier, short deal, reasonable price.

00:27:56
Speaker 2: Sure, yeah, you know, Andrew Heeny Nobody's gonna pop Champagne if he were to sign, but probably yeah, twenty five thirty starts, probably a low four ZRA. He's been durable.

00:28:12
Speaker 1: He's been pretty.

00:28:13
Speaker 2: Good with Texas and Anaheim, you know. And Nick Pavetta is interesting in the sense that if he ever stopped giving up home runs at like the worst rate in baseball, like seriously, the worst rate in baseball among starting pitchers last year, if Pavetta ever stopped giving up home runs at a crazy rate, he would actually be like really good. He gets a lot of strikeouts, he doesn't walk a whole lot of hitters. He's been pretty durable, his stuff is pretty solid, So I could see Pavetta maybe being of interest for the Braves if they think that getting him out of Fenway Park might do him some good. Again, I don't think anyone would be super pumped over an Nick Poveta signing, but he's interestingly enough that he has some stuff in his arsenal that would probably be appealing to the Braves. And if you think a change of scenery or just some adjustments on the mound could get his home run ball under control, then you have a picture who could probably be quite good, quite honestly, But that's obviously easier said than done for a pitcher who has always given up a million home runs throughout his career.

00:29:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean useful, that's one area, like they see something they like, but perhaps, uh, that's kind of the end of a tear bree. I mean, you got Morton still available if he wants to pitch. We don't know anything else that we don't already know about Jolly Morton. And then you get to the lower the lowering guys. I'm just gonna say some names. We don't have to add anythingless you want to. A couple old guys Justin Berlioner, Max Schurzer are available. Kyle Gibson, is a super booring pitcher, lance Lynn, jose Kntana, Spencer Turnbull, Like these are all like fifth starter types at this point. Again, at a certain price point, all those guys become interesting if it's cheap enough. But it's just like, I don't know what you want to spend money on where the market is, and they seem like there might be like those might be February tenth signings, I don't know.

00:30:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I would be in favor of giving it to Grant Holmes or a J. Smiths, Shauber or someone like that. I mean, if if Justin Verlander wants to do it for the love of the game at six million dollars next season, then sure. But you know, for a front office that's clearly being at least somewhat cost conscious this winter. Yeah, I think internally the Braves probably have options that would rival some of those bottom tier guys.

00:30:40
Speaker 1: Yes, I'd rather have Morton than all those guys. For example, even if he's not on the team, but he's I think he's better than all those guys. Other than if you want to argue that that Pavetta and he knew better than Morton, I'll listen to you. The tier below that. I think I just want to have Charlie for cost, certainty, all those things. Anyway, that's the market quickly on started pitching at A lot of guys have signed, and a lot of talk a big money, Like for instance, you'd mentioned Flaherty earlier when Sean and I is getting three for seventy five. If you're Jack Flaherty, like you've got to get more than job Maya, Like you're supposed to better than JOm and Iya. So like if that's your floor price, it's just like kind of a lot of money for a lot of these guys. Okay, the one guy we want to talk about a little bit more is at corner outfield, right, So we've discussed corner out fielders a lot. A lot of guys have signed already, with which early on this podcast Das Bernanda signed. Anthy Santander is not like a guy that I think, well we think probably at least we talked about four is not super brazy maybe if the market is cheap enough, but he's a good player, not what they want, like he's kind of a lefty master that don't really need one of those, etcetera. There, Jerkson Profar we've discussed before on the show, but not in a ton of depth. He along with Santander are like pretty clearly the two best corner outfielders available still on the market, and I'll tee you up. I mean, he seems like he's fairly appealing profile to what the Braves are looking for, other than maybe the defense, which I think is like maybe a step above joh Peterson, but it's it's not very good. But what do you make of this? Because he's not a guy that we focused on a lot on the show, but I think people probably recognize from his prospect days, et cetera, and like might be a fit for the Braves.

00:32:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, so okay, I'm trying to figure out who the Braves are going to go get for the outfield, because clearly they have a need, Like full stop, the Braves have a need. I would almost argue that the corner outfield is the biggest need for this team right now. But that's you know, we could probably have that conversation at another time. Jerkson Profar is really interesting. Coming into the offseason. He was projected for like a three year, forty five million dollar contract, which seems fair and reasonable. No Profar is fascinating because he was really bad in twenty twenty three. He had a negative one war and was flat out released by the terrible Colorado Rockies. Do you know how bad you have to be to get released by the Colorado Rockies? So flash forward six months. Profar signs a one million dollar deal with the San Diego Padres and what does he do But he basically reworks and retools his entire swing, which is pretty crazy for a guy who's going to be thirty two years old next season. You don't hear a lot about guys in their thirties who have been in baseball for a decade deciding to suddenly change everything they do in the batter's box. But after working with Fernando Tatisa's dad, who is a hitting coach, Profar put together an unbelievably good twenty twenty four season, like legitimately good Brad like in terms of his expected numbers on how hard he hit the baseball. This is the company that Jerkson Profar kept And then I'll throw.

00:34:03
Speaker 1: It back to you.

00:34:04
Speaker 2: Profar was one point ahead of Mookie Bets and two points behind Rafael Devers.

00:34:12
Speaker 1: Is that good?

00:34:13
Speaker 2: He was like three points behind Freddy Freeman, and he was like three points ahead of Bryce Harper. So there are questions about Profar I get it, and we'll talk about those here in a minute. But even if it's for one season, if you have a year where you're in the same company as Freddy Freeman, Bryce Harper, Mookie Bets and Raphael Devers, I think it's only fair to have your attention. And if he's available on a shorter deal, then I think he's a natural.

00:34:41
Speaker 1: Fit for what the Braves need. Yeah, that's a good synopsis, because look, this is not breaking ground. But if last year was real, he's a great hitter. I mean, he was a legitimately great hitter last year, and that's not us gassing him for any reason. He's not on the team right now with no reason to guess about he was. He was a great hitter last year. You gave the numbers one, three, nine RC plus like just awesome switch hitter two like not not big platoon split like just certainly a guy who can check a lot of box for you to take the off the table. I'm old, Scott. I remember Pero far As, like the prospect fourteen we you know, twelve thirteen, years old. However, long ago that was like he was a I'm not exaggerating. He was supposed to be like an ACUNEA level prospect. He was the number one prospect in baseball and that did not happen. But like that's what I remember first about Profar still now probably it's like he was supposed to be the guy and then he wasn't. But like you might you mentioned this, the scream were working, like because of this swing being reworked. I tend to believe it. For like I tend to believe last year was more real, Like what I what I what I projected to do what he did last year. No, I wouldn't because he hasn't done that other than last year. But I think if I had to guess, he's gonna be a good hitter this coming season. He's not super old, you know, in his he'll be thirty two. That's not over the hill. It's by freezing standard, it's pretty normal. But the work that he did on that's on the swing, plus the talent that he once had or was supposed supposed to have, I kind of believe it more than I would on a lot of guys who had a breakout at thirty one. Like it's a little bit scary on some respects, but you know he wasn't You know, the Potteries aren't some massive hitters park either, Like he was putting up these numbers in a reasonable environment. Was like he was playing in the course field he had. Actually he did play for the Rockies for a while. Yeah, I like the profile now I much to do this already. It's not good by all accounts. I won't claim to have watched Profile play a lot of defense, but when I was above average. Drs agree you're bad, both of them. It's you're generally bad most of the time, like I expected to be. Again, maybe maybe a hair or two better than the Solaire Peterson level, and that might scare you off, Like if you think he's a DH, like we're back to where we just were with jockol Like I'm not gonna tell you to tell you what I'm not gonna say out almost out of my mouth. Like if they think his defense is bad, like bad bad, you probably want to pass. But if it's a level that I think is passable, then it becomes interesting. So yeah, I think I would have said even before all the market bore out the way it's born out, with a lot of guys signing already, if they could have got him for a shorter deal three years, probably at a you know, fourteen to sixteen million dollars or something like that. Even back in November, I would have said, okay, makes total sense. Now that seems even better because the market generally has overpaid or at least paid a lot for everyone, and the market's thinner. So like in theory, if he has multiple suitors, he's agents. You know, his agents behave. This guy has a lot of value and not a lot of places for him to go. I don't know. I like it tentatively, even acknowledging that I don't like the defense from what I can see, but the bat like I long story short, I think I believe that that more than I would for most players with this profile. Because of last year's changes, he became a different hit. It wasn't just like fluky results. His process clearly changed. Yeah, also as bad a ball data clearly changed. Like it wasn't like a guy who and I think between the two of us, that's not perfect science. We can look at a profile with all the bad ball duo it's available now at stack cast and kind of tell you if it was a fluke or not. And it doesn't look like a fluke last year. Now, whether you could do that again is different, but it wasn't like he was just like getting lucky on bad bit and like hitting a bunch of fly balls that got one inch over the over the wall, et cetera. Itself Like it looks like an awesome profile and because of that, I'm.

00:38:42
Speaker 2: Prettierd Yeah, yeah, just again, we'll wrap up Profar here, but you know, just two unbelievable numbers you mentioned the batted ball data. Profar increased his average exit velocity last season by five miles an hour. Now, that may not seem like anything crazy, like you know, what's the difference between driving thirty and thirty five miles an hour down the street. But for a baseball player, that is unbelievable. That's a huge difference over a one hundred and sixty two game season. Profar also increased his hard hit and hard contact rate by thirteen points, which.

00:39:22
Speaker 1: Is really impressive.

00:39:24
Speaker 2: And again, man, go go look if you're bored and want to, you know, look into a possible braves target. Go look at a at bat from Profar in twenty twenty three and one in twenty twenty four, and he doesn't even look like the same guy up there. So an interesting player for sure. I'm not sure how many teams are actively looking for outfield help right now. Maybe that some of Alex Anthopolis's calculus here that he doesn't necessarily want a bid against the entire league. And as say, the Dodgers just signed Tioscar Hernandez, well they're not looking for an outfielder anymore. Other teams have added outfielders, they are no longer in the mo market. So maybe Profar falls into the Braves's laps. The defense is a very legitimate concern, But if he was a gold Glover, he would be getting a five year, one hundred and twenty million dollars deal, and instead he might be looking at a two or three year deal at fifteen million per And that is clearly something that Alex is kind of more privy to doing than opening the checkbook for a maybe not a one year wonder. But to be clear, you are paying for a player at the very peak of what his value could be.

00:40:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, and maybe you get a discount so to speak, because it's only one year and teams maybe not, maybe aren't buying it. Maybe the Braves aren't buying it, and O teams are not, and that way they get they think they're gonna get a market. So we'll stop talking about him now. It's not like they signed him so far, but it's there's an interesting middle ground where like he could be a pretty big value if you get him at a deal that's like what we just talked about, like fifteen million a year. He was worth a lot more than that last year, a lot more. I might say it's gonna happen again, but there is a little bit of a middle there where you could be pretty and uh, you know, he's probably the most enticing free agent outfield or available for the Braves, given what Santana doesn't do for the Braves, particular skills that they want. Lower down the list again, much Lord on the list. A couple more names are just mentioned throughout there. Alex Ferdugo old pal, Jason Hayward is still available, hits Righty's veteran, et cetera, et cetera. Jesse Winker is like toward the DH side, but we've always kind of liked him as a potential platoonist guy in the outfield, and then old power more Loreano still available probably for cheap relationships there. So that just to be clear, that's a big step down from the others. But uh, noting that, Okay. So now one more name, different position that we should talk about briefly is Tanner Scott. So we've mentioned Tarner Scott few times on the show and these free agent rundowns because he is coming into the off season. Was the biggest name, biggest projected contract for any really and he's still on the market right now. He's awesome for the record, like, he's an awesome pitcher. That's why he's getting discussion in the way he is. But uh, Dave O'Brien of the Athletics come to the brace for a long time, right, he's mentioned Tanner Scott enough where you took notice of it and pointed out to me, I didn't. I didn't notice this is I'll give credit to Scott. Scott was like, man, do you be talking about Tanner Scott a lot? Notable? That doesn't mean anything other than he just mentioned it. But Tanner Scott is not like what you think. The Braves quote unquote need the most because they have Resto Glacias. They have a high dollar awesome closer and I'm using closer and giant quotes if you're not watching the podcast on YouTube, because you know most of the time you don't pay a number two reliever huge closer money, especially when you are on a relative budget. We don't know what the Brazer Bult budget. It's not the Mets. They're not spending unlimited funds. Same with the Dodgers. There is a budget Alex has. At the same time, we have laughed and joked and poked funny but at times about Alex's proclarty for paying relievers. He tends to like to pay relievers for whatever reason. Will Smith got a lot of money from the Braves right on down the list, and right now Joejamenz getting paid to not pitch. He's hurt right now. The Glaces is a big contract. Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer, the list goes.

00:43:18
Speaker 2: On and on.

00:43:18
Speaker 1: He pays relievers, he just does. Kevin Danson Back of the Day, kurbyates, what are you making this? Is it plausible that the Braves could pay a market contract of Tanner Scott or would it take a discount probably to get him to Atlanta.

00:43:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, Canner Scott really good, like a claim to probably being the best reliever in baseball the last two seasons. His stuff from the left side is disgusting. I mean that fastball and that slider, You're not going to hit it. I mean that, especially if you're a left handed hitter, you are not going to hit the baseball. That is such a weapon to have, especially come playoff time when matchups become so important. You know, Tanner Scott, he's interested. He's going to likely get paid like a good closer.

00:44:03
Speaker 1: You just said.

00:44:04
Speaker 2: The Braves have a closer, So I don't know if they necessarily want to commit that kind of money. The real question I have about this, and to be David O'Brien said multiple times now that the Braves are interested in Tanner Scott. If the Braves don't care about money, and in the next month they're going to drop some cash, like throw out some names, they sign profar, they signed Tanner Scott, and they trade for a pitcher owed some real money, you know, then I understand signing Tanner Scott more. But if if they are really counting their dollars and they're going to try to get under the luxury tax or whatever it is they're going to try to do. Then, for my money, relief pitcher is the third priority here behind outfield and starting pitching, and I'd even throw a shortstop in there too.

00:44:58
Speaker 1: So it's interesting.

00:45:00
Speaker 2: Again, If Tanner Scott's the first move, I'm guessing that it signals that they are going to spend even more money than what we are anticipating, and that Alex was just kind of waiting for the market to develop. But I mean, if they really are counting money, it just it doesn't add up in terms of dollars and cents. If he's going to be like your one edition when you have a giant hole in the outfield and probably a hole in your rotation, that that doesn't sound right to me.

00:45:28
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't add anything else really, I mean, I generally like paying relievers less than Alex does. Even with that said, like, there are bigger issues now. Now we've also said this, like they could use another reliever given the Jimenez absence, which probably for the season, not definitely, but probably for the season, and no Mentor right now, Minter still creation could they send. They could sign Mentor, but if you just take amenas a mentor away. They have some group of lievers, like we love to only remembers good. Johnson was a little shaky this year, but still a good reliever generally speaking. And Iglesias like they're in a okay spot with the bullpen, like the Braves are the envy of most teams in the bullpen, even right this second without him and this without Manner, but they could use Tanner Scott Obviously he's awesome. Sign me up. It's just like, yeah, it's it's a hard sell it if he's your one big expenditure in a winter with this roster, it's like scratch your head a little bit. It's like what we what are we doing here? But you're right. If it's paired with other things, it's easier to explain. And also the price, but matters like he's projected to get, Like I think the one media and I've seen is like four fifty six, so like that's like a Glazius money a Glacis basically was getting four for sixty when they traded for him. It was essentially a free agent signing because they traded nothing for him. It just shot that's who they got back but they took on a lot of money there, and he's done worth every penny so far. But if your number two reliever is making fourteen to fifteen million dollars a year for four years and you're paying him in is to not pitch this year at eight plus million, which I think we agree, or at least it could have influenced some other decisions like that Travis dr no timing was not ignored by us. Like I think it's possible that they let Travis go because of Himna's injury, which is crazy, but it might have happened. Long story short, like, yeah, if they signed Tarror Scott, I'm not going to criticize them within reason. I think if it's a if it's four for eighty even, yeah I'll be bothered by that. But if it's four for fifty or whatever for sixty reasonable contract in a vacuum, it's just that that's not what they need the most. But maybe Alex is gonna come as he often does, and just say, you know what, we're gonna just throw resources at the bullpen and look to his credit, it's work. The Braves have been awesome in the bullpen for several seasons in a row, and this last season they had to be I mean, they had to be awesome with the pitching staff, give Ben everything else that went wrong, and that was a big, big part of why they made the playoffs. It was a maddening season, but they got a lot out of the bullpen and that really helped them. So it's hard to like be bothered by the bullpen construction so far, for sure.

00:47:59
Speaker 2: And my long time take on bullpen spending is as long as the rest of your roster is good and has depth and doesn't have holes all over the place, I have no problem with spending on a bullpen. A bad bullpen can nuke an otherwise really good team because close winds turn into close losses, blowout wins turn into close wins where you're having to use everybody and kind of stress through. It really no issue at all with spending money on your bullpen as long as you don't have a gigantic hole in left field and a big hole in the middle of your rotation without Freed and Morton and a bottom five shortstop in Orlando Arcia. So yeah, we wanted to hit on Tanner Scott. It's interesting to me that as so many players have gotten fat paychecks this winter. That Tanner, who is clearly the best reliever on the market, has not found a home yet. Maybe his agent over played it and is looking for too much money and now he's kind of backed himself into a corner and and who knows where it'll ultimately be. We can also be blown away tomorrow morning that the Dodgers have signed Tanner Scott for four years and eighty million, and we all just kind of laugh with could heard through twenty ninety six. And then Jeff Passon defends the Dodgers for the eleventh time this month. U. Yeah, don't.

00:49:24
Speaker 1: Uh so, yeah, that's your that that's your guy, though, Scott, you're here, that's your guy. Okay, yeah, you're right. I mean we say we say Scott to the end of the podcast because it's it's an interesting situation because they just need so many other things, but he's still out there, and uh he's the only in fact, out of all the positions he talked about, maybe you could say, like Pete a Lownso at first Pacial like that with the Brays don't need Scott's the only premium free agent that's still available. Like the top top top of their own market like relievers. He was number one coming into the all season at the relievers spot and he's still there. Obviously, all the pre guys are gone, you know, Soto signed a Damas signed, Burns Freed, all those guys like, they've all signed now and Snow. But the number one reliever is on the market still. It's just that number one reliever is not And by the way, the projections paint this picture, East Brits to get four four fifty six, that's what a quarter of what Max Freed signed for. So like it's not the same exact hierarchy, and relievers should get paid less. That's just that's the nature of the beasts. But really good ones like Tanner Scott can move mountains for you. And look, if they sign them, we'll turn around and say, hey, the breaks are the best eight ninth inning guys combination in Major League Baseball, And they would the moment they signed Tator Scott. They have the best combination of relievers that the Big two in particular of Scott and places in baseball that'd be, that would be true. How much you value that is up to Alex to the side. But yeah, yeah, so that's the free agent market. AJ Mentor is still out there looking for I still think that could be a reunion at some point, but I'm guessing AJ is looking for the biggest guarantee possible because he should coming off the hip.

00:51:03
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's coming off the hip, and I mean he's mad. He's made money, let's be clear, but he is not someone who has so much money in the bank already that he doesn't care and is willing to take less money to go somewhere else the way that Charlie Morton might or Corbyn Burns might. But yeah, that's the outfield, that's the bullpen, that is the starting pitcher, and that is the very small shortstop free agent markets. We wanted to quickly kind of hit on those before the calendar flips to twenty twenty five. And who knows, maybe the Braves will sign one or two or three of these guys soon.

00:51:36
Speaker 1: Who knows, indeed, Scott, Yeah, this might be our last podcast between me and you in this calendar year. We won't say it definitely will be. The Braves make a signing, We'll come back. If they make a tray will come back. You could even get a Shan Steven appearance. Between now and the final seconds of twenty twenty four. But there you go. That's the state of the market right now. We'll see what the Braves do. We've made ourselves very clear that at the rates, don't do anything in six weeks. Yell it's Scott. Go on social media Blue Sky, Twitter and say, Scott, you told us six weeks it would all be fixed. I'm just kidding. Oh, we should do we should do some some some engagement farming at the end of the podcast. If you made it this far on YouTube, in particular, comments on YouTube and say which of the remaining for agents you want the Braves to sign. Pick one though, one one of the guy who talked about on this podcast, and just say I want them to sign this player. If you just as a present to us, if you made it this far, let us know that you listened this far and comment on YouTube, Scott, anything else you want to add, We went longer than expected, because that's what we always tend to do. Anything you also want to add, if not working folks who are just finding the podcast for the first time at the end of the year, find working to be able to find you all of your musings written social media et cetera.

00:52:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, a big thank you to everybody who jumped on board. This past calendar year was a very interesting one for the podcast. Very suddenly we had the Battery Power Show ended upon us and we ultimately landed with the Foul Territory team here on Hammer Territory and it's been great. I mean seriously rough baseball season aside with a million injuries and slow off season and everything else, it's been really great to have all the support this year. So wishing everybody a very happy and safe new year. We will continue to crank out even more shows in twenty twenty five. We were just talking earlier today actually about some exciting ideas we have for shows to help bridge the gap between now and spring training. If you want to follow me on socials and tweet me when the Braves do not do things, I am at Scott Coleman fifty five and yeah again, Happy new Year and we'll be back soon with another show.

00:53:48
Speaker 1: I was hoping you would say. You can find me at be od score Outliers on Twitter if you want to yell hello Steven. Anyway, thanks for listening, everybody. Check out Scott on social media, check out the show on social media as well. We were at Hammi Territory, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, threads, all those places. You can find me on Twitter and Louse Guy at BT Rowland. And yeah, we'll have more to come. But I appreciate everyone listening to the podcast. As to Scott As, to Steven as DeShawn, we are very grateful for your support. Keep it up for us in twenty twenty five because we're gonna be going NonStop even if the Race don't do anything. I don't want Alex to test us necessarily. We'd like to talk about stuff that acts actually happening. But even if the Rays don't do stuff, we were gonna have to do podcasts and find things to talk about, and we'll do player capsules and nail that questions or whatever. We'll grind our way through the AUF Seas. And I promise you but subscribe to the podcast, take your friends about the show, enjoy the rest of twenty twenty four and start at twenty twenty five. Well back again later this week and we'll see you all next time