1037: Week 7 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zappersa J J. Zacher reason. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode ten thirty seven of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. There's no better way to get closer to the action with the DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code Late Round to play free for your share of millions. The Crown is yours gambling problem called one hunter Gambler in New York call eight seven to seven eight Hope, n Y. And Connicut call eighty eight seven eight nine seven seven seveny seven eighteen plus in most states. Eligibilia Strician's apply ends December thirty first. See terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions. Last week wasn't that bad for this sleeper show, but it wasn't as good as Week five. On the bad side, Mason Taylor barely did anything. I called out Kamani Bydel but I liked Hassan Haskins more based on reports. Juwan Jennings had more injuries than I realized. Ramandre Stevenson was absolutely terrible, Taekwan Thornton he didn't come through as a desperation play, and Matthew Stafford failed to score ten points. On the good side, though, the Vegas defense was a great streaming choice, Harold Fannin scored over fifteen PPR points. Wandel Robinson posted a twenty burger in PPR leagues. Bryce Young had eighteen and a half. Sam Darnold was at twenty. Kendrick Bourne had another strong outing. Ric o'dowdell crushed his old team, Michael Mayer was a great streaming choice, and Jake Tungus and Kate Otton both had double digit PPR points. It wasn't a bad sleeper show. I'm not totally upset with those results. But I'll tell you, guys what Week seven incredibly difficult week. Let's see what we've got. The quarterback and defense streamers this week are terrible, and there's really not that much depth in the waiver wire outside of tight end. Tight End low Key has been there for us this year. But we'll kick things off with players rostered in fifty to eighty percent of Yahoo leagues. And I've got one quarterback in this tier for you, and it's a guy who's been here the last couple of weeks, Matthew Stafford. Yes he had a bad outing last week, and yes I don't expect pugan Akua to play, but this matchup against Jacksonville it's not a bad one. The Jags have given up the thirteenth most adjusted points to quarterbacks this year, so they are a slightly above average matchup from that perspective. They also really haven't gotten to the quarterback this year according to PFF data when looking at pressure rate allowed versus pressure rate given. Stafford in the Rams have an above average matchup there this weekend, and he's been a fringe top ten quarterback this year and quarterback rating from a clean pocket. The Jags have also allowed twenty seven quarterback passing yards over expected per game. That makes him one of the more favorable matchups from that standpoint, So to me, this is above average matchup all around. It's not elite, but it's above average. And Stafford still has other weapons in that offense, specifically Davante Adams, so he's still an okay play at running back. What he marks his back off is by and I'm interested. I'm not super interested, but I'm interested. The last time we saw the Texans that were going up against the Ravens Baltimore, as we know, they've struggled defensively and they didn't have Lamar Jackson in that game, creating a nice positive game script for Houston. That's gonna favor Nick Chubb more than what he marks. But even in that game, Marx played more snaps and he ran more routes than Nick Chubb. Chubb, according to Fantasy Life data, hasn't played any long down in distance or two minute snaps for the Texans this year. What he marks since Week two has played almost sixty percent of their long down in distance snaps and eighty eight percent of their two minute snaps. They get Seattle this week. In Seattle, the Seahawks are three and a half point favorites, so we're likely going to see more of a neutral or negative game script. Now. Seattle's done an easy matchup. They've been good at limiting running back yardage, and they're the twenty first best matchup by justin points allowed but I do think that Marx could see volume in this game, making him viable enough for teams needing a flex or a bi week villain. Ramandre Stevenson is making this list again too, and it's entirely based on this matchup against Tennessee. It's a juicy one. The Titans have actually been a bottom five matchup by austin points allowed to quarterbacks this year, but they're top five for running backs thanks to game script, of course. But Stevenson, he's coming off a game where he saw almost sixty percent of New England's running back rushes and he saw a season high seventy one percent snapshare. Now, of course he wasn't effective on his rushes, but in this matchup, that volume can score fantasy points. Moving on to wide receiver, I'm gonna go back to the Packers guys who are still under that eighty percent mark on Yahoo and by Packers guys, I'm referring, of course, to Matthew Golden and Romeo Dops. This week they get a card secondary that's been totally average against wideouts this year by adjusted points allowed, but Arizona they've allowed twenty three passing yards over expected per game. To be thrown on them. Green Bay is a great twenty five and a half point total. I've got Dobbs ranked a head of Golden because he just keeps playing the wide receiver one role on the team. He's coming off a game with a thirty five percent target share, but both of them should work against the Cardinals. Wanda Robinson doesn't have a great matchup this week against Denver. The Broncos are the fifth toughest matchup for wideouts by adjusted points allowed, but oddly they rank first and adjusted target share allowed to the position, and they've been worse against the slot than they have the perimeter, which makes sense given their defensive personnel. Denver's twentieth and adjusted slot points allowed to wide receivers, so it's a little bit more advantageous there. Robinson's still running around sixty five to seventy percent of his routes from that area of the field. He's just running more routes in general since Malik Neighbors went down, and he's dip blown eighteen percent target share just once this year. He's been below a twenty five percent target share just twice, so I do think Robinson is still kind of a floor option even in a tougher matchup at tight end. In this tier, I've got Kyle Pitts. He only saw a thirteen percent target chair last week, but that was a season low for him. He still had a ninety four percent route share. That's more or less what he's seen most of the season. He's out there running a lot of routes, which is always what we want to see. The Falcons get the forty nine ers this week. San Francisco is the eleventh best matchup for tight ends by justin Fantasy points allowed. They've allowed the fifth highest adjusted target chair to the position, so Kyle Pittch should be fine. Zach Ertz is the last player to finish up this tier. That Dallas Washington game. It profiles as a shootout. It's got the highest total in the week by far, and I won every piece I can get of that game. Dallas has technically been better against tight ends than any other position, but they're still the fourteenth best matchup for that position, and they've actually allowed the ninth highest adjusted target chair to tight ends. Art is coming off a strong outing against Chicago. He's now fallen below a seventy eight percent route participation rate. Just once this year, so he's a decent option this week. We're now moving to players roster in twenty to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and once again, quarterback pretty rough. I only have one for you guys in this tier, and it's Aaron Rodgers. Rogers gets a Bengals defense. It's allowed the fifth most adjusted points to quarterbacks this year, and it's a defense that's just struggled in general. Cincinnati has not pressured the quarterback well at all, and when looking at pressures given versus allowed this year, Pittsburgh has the second best matchup of the week. They're only behind Kansas City. Meanwhile, according to PFF data, only Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, and Josh Allen have a better quarterback rating this year from a clean pocket than Aaron Rodgers. Pittsburgh's got a twenty four point implied team total, so I like Rogers in this spot. Kamani Bydell is an obvious go to in this tier this week. I don't think we should expect the same results as last week because Miami's been so bad against the run this year. They're allowing thirty five point six rushing yards per game to running backs over expected. The next closest team is at twenty five point five. This week, the Chargers get the Colts. It's a below average matchup on paper across the board, but it's not egregiously bad. We're using Viydelle simply because he ended up seeing a seventy five percent running back rush share and a ten and a half percent target share in Week six. He also had a solid fifty four percent route share. If those numbers keep up, he's bound to be usable. I do think though there is some variability here. The Chargers are probably gonna still go with a hot hand approach, so you run the risk that Vinell does not have that hot hand. The Saints get a Bears team this week that ranks second worst and adjusted running back rushing yards allowed per game. They're seventh worst and adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. Kendrey Miller has seen running back rush shares of forty two, fifty six percent, and forty four percent over his last three games. That's resulted in eleven ten to eight rush attempts. He hasn't been a factor as a receiver, but he might be able to get some production on the ground this week in a plus matchup. The last back to call out here is Kareem Hunt. Now, Hunt spent a little bit of time in the Blue Tent in Week six, and he was dealing with a calf injury during practice throughout the week before that game. If we're assuming it's a full go this week, though, I think there's a scenario here where he's one of the players just icing this game for the Chiefs. If this game goes the way most of us think it's going to go, Kansas City's at home. They're eleven and a half point favorites against the Raiders. They should hypothetically have an easy time in this game. That's not a guarantee, that's just a projection. If it does go that way, we might see Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco grind things out at the end. Prior to last week, Hunt was seeing a running back rush air per game rate of forty eight percent, So if he's healthy enough, I wouldn't be surprised if he sees double digit touches. Moving on to wide receiver, Actually, I don't have a wide receiver. It's so so ugly in this tier. I'm not going to force a wide receiver play just for content purposes. I'll have more wide receivers in the next section, I promise. So we'll move on to tight end. I've got three guys for you. The first one Mason Taylor. You've got Garrett Wilson injured. It doesn't sound good for him here in Week seven. We know the Jets don't have that much in terms of reliability outside of Garrett Wilson. So Mason Taylor could just walk into a lot of volume against Carolina, and fortunately for him, Carolina is the second best matchup for tight ends by justin fantasy points allowed this year. He didn't get it done last week with just a six percent target share, but he was at a twenty six and twenty seven percent share in his two games prior, so he makes sense, and so does Harold Fannin. It also doesn't sound like David and Joko's gonna go this week, which would leave Fannin as the number one tight end for the Browns. They get the Dolphins this week in Miami. They've been the seventh best matchup for tight ends this year by justin points allowed, and they've allowed the fourth highest adjusted target share to the position. It wouldn't supprise me if Fannin ends the day with eight to ten targets and then finally Cardio ka Dootten. I've been calling him out on the show recently, but he's been decent. He scored twelve and ten pper points over his last two games on sixteen percent and twenty six percent target chairs. Last week he had a ninety six percent route participation rate. With a mechag Buka out and Mike Evans being ify, he makes a ton of sense against the Lions this week. If Evans does go, he's not as attractive, but he still works. And if Evans sits, then Aughton is a great play. The final tier players consist of guys rostered and fewer than twenty percent of Yahoo leagues were digging deep here. I've got one streamer for you, kind of it's Joe Flacco. Flacco gets a Steelers defense that's been a little banged up this year in the secondary, and I think that's why they've given up the six most adjusted Fantasy points the quarterbacks. But make no mistake, I think it's a beatable secondary. I do worry a bit about how the Bengals defensive line is going to handle the Steelers pressure though. But it's really a terrible week for quarterback streamers. So I think Flacco could be okay enough. I do like his future schedule a lot more. Now, moving on from quarterback, let's talk about this Cardinals backfield, Bam Knight. Not to be clear, I think I prefer Michael Carter to Bam Knight this week. If a Mari de Mercado doesn't play he was banged up in Week six. That's because the Cardinals get the Packers, they're likely to face a negative game script and Michael Carter he's more of the pass catcher compared to Bam Knight. But if both guys are healthy, I'll probably say Bam Knight would be the play, just because he looks like the goal line back. Maybe he lucks into a touchdown. He saw fifty two percent of their running back rushes in Week six, and he's a candidate for double digit touches here in Week seven. Admittedly, though, I don't think this is a very easy play to make. That's if a Mari de Marcado is active. If that happens, I'd be looking elsewhere. I'm just trying to give you guys some options, you know, like Kyle Guy. Do I feel great about recommending Kyle Manungay. I mean, I wouldn't even call this a recommendation. It's more of a watch out for him this week kind of thing. The Bears are decent favorites against the Saints. They're at home, and while New Orleans has actually not been bad against running backs by justin points allowed, they're below average and adjusted running back rushing yards allowed. Manunguy hasn't seen that uptick that so many people are hoping for. He's hovered like that twenty five percent running back rush share number. He's been around like a thirty thirty five percent role participation rate. But if gamescript favors Chicago, which we can't say each week, then maybe we get a little bit more from the rookie. And then I actually don't mind Jeremy McNichols that much, as like a desperation play Chris Rodriguez. He was hurt last week. He may not be one hundred percent this week either. Regardless, though that would probably impact Bill Krosky Merit more than it would Jeremy McNichols. McNichols is their pass catching back. He's played all of their two minute snaps since Austin Eckler went down. He's coming off a game where he played one hundred percent of their long down and distance snaps. He's not gonna see a ton of carries. He's seen one or two carries in each of his last three games. But he can hit spike target shaars. Last week he had a seventeen percent target share on a thirty seven percent route participation rate. This game is just so attractive. It's the best one on the slate from a projected points standpoint. If Washington hits a negative game script, which is always possible, that McNichols could really thrive in a high scoring environment. But even if they don't, Dallas ranks third this year and adjusted target share allowed to running backs. And by the way, this is definitely more of a PPR play. I wouldn't touch this archetype in a standard format at wide receiver Josh Downs evidently is in concussion protocol, and while Alec Pierce doesn't play the same type of position as Downs in that Colts offense, more targets could just naturally be funneled his way. The Colts get the Chargers LA they've been good against wide receivers this year, there's no doubt, but do keep in mind and they've been twenty ninth and adjusted target chair allowed to slot receivers when they're six in the NFL, and adjusted target chair allowed the receivers overall, which means teams are typically using their perimeter receivers against the LA Chargers. That could help Alec Pierce when looking at the Tampa Bay wide receivers outside of Mike Evans this week, obviously, if he goes, my choice would be Sterling Shepard. Now clearly at the time of this recording, I don't know if Mike Evans is going to be back this week, but regardless of his status, I think Sheppard has the safest projection against the Lions Versus him and Tess Johnson in Detroit. They're the fourth best matchup for wide receivers by justin points allowed. But like I said, Tes Johnson is also in play. It's exact same logic, and he's definitely more attractive if Mike Evans is out, because it wouldn't surprise me if Shepherd's the guy out there with Mike Evans and two wide receiver sets. But it's a good scoring environment and Baker Mayfield is playing out of his freaking mind in that same game, but on the opposite side of the field Isaac Tesla. The Buccaneers have allowed the ninth most adjusted fantasy points to wideouts this year. They've actually allowed the second lowest adjusted target share to slot receivers, so outside receivers they're getting it done more frequently against the Bucks. In Week six, Tesla ran a route on a season high seventy one percent of Detroit's dropbacks. Now, that could be due to a Khaliff raim In injury, but they also might be wanting to get Tesla more involved. This is a super super super deep play, but that's what the section's for. What a weird week. A more normal play here is two two Atwell and Jordan Winnington because pokin Akua isn't expected to play. In Week seven, the Rams get the Jags, and Jacksonville has been friendlier to perimeter players than slot players this year. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Atwell play a little bit more on the perimeter, despite how he's been deployed this year, which is in a slot role. In twenty twenty four, when the Rams didn't have DeVante Adams, and they had some injuries to Cooper Cup and Pukinakua. Atwell finished the season with a third six percent slot rate. It's not like he's never played on the outside, and he's got a little bit more big playability than Jordan Whittington does. So I'm leaning his way by just a little bit this week against Jacksonville. But Whittington works too. Don't forget Whittington was awesome on a per route run basis as a rookie last year. Definitely don't sleep on his ability. Josh Reynolds didn't get a practice in on Wednesday, but if he goes, he's the likely number one wide receiver for the Jets this week, which isn't saying much, but it's not nothing. The Jets get the Panthers, and while Caroline has been good against wideouts this year by justin points allowed, the attractive part of this matchup for the Jets offense is that the Panthers, they have the lowest pressure rate in the league according to PFF Justin fields may have some time for plays to develop and that would in turn help Josh Reynolds. And then I've got one super deep wide receiver play for you. I guess it's sort of similar to that Isaac teslah one Pat Bryant. I would rather play Troy Franks Clint versus Pat Bryant, but hear me out. Brian had routchairs of five percent, twenty six percent, and six percent over his first three games. Over his last three, those routchairs have been thirty eight percent, fifty three percent, and fifty eight percent. Brian, the Broncos get the Giants. They're allowing the six most adjusted Fantasy points to wide receivers, so that's great. We also just saw Bryant run sixty five percent of his routes out of the slot last week. New York is sixth an adjusted slot target share allowed. I actually think Bryant is an interesting stash in deep leagues right now, and maybe he's even usable this week in one of those deep leagues now at tight end, even though the matchup is not there for Michael Mayer this week, he makes plenty of sense because of his peripherals. Last week, I mean, he had an eighty percent route share without brock Bauers. He turned that into a thirty two percent target chair. The Raiders could throw the ball out against the Chiefs. That's gonna make Michael Meyer relevant. Aronde Gadson's another one. Even with Will Disley back. This past week, Gatson saw a season high seventy seven percent route share and a twenty one percent target share. He got seven of eight targets for sixty eight yards. Now, Quentin Johnston could be back this week, that would make Gadston less desirable, but Indianapolis has been an average to above average tight end matchup this year, so there are worse desperation plays. I think one play who might be better is Noa Fan. Mikekasicki is on Ir Tanner Hudson. He's out on Thursday night with a concussion. Noah Fan is the lone tight end in that Bengals offense, so I'm expecting a high route share and the matchup's great. The Steelers have allowed the most adjusted fantasy points the tight ends this year. It's literally the best matchup on paper, So don't sleep on Noah Fan. Now at defense this week, Like I said earlier, it's rough here too. I talked about Cleveland on the fifteen Transaction Show. They definitely work against Miami. They're my top choice, but there's also Carolina as a desperation play against the Jets, and I think I like the Bears defense more than the Panthers defense at home against the Saints. It's really really a hard week for this show. Let's hope there are some ws out there because it's not going to be an easy one. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by shorting for a pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, it effort to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the Weekly Mailbag show.