308: Mailbag 11/1/19

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Speaker 1: This is the Label Podcast with your host JJ Zacher Retha j.

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Speaker 2: J Zacher Reason. What's up everyone?

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Speaker 1: It's JJ Zachareson, the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com and this is episode three hundred and eight of the Late Round podcast, one of many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 1: Before getting into this week's questions, I wanted to let you guys know that we've got another free play for FanDuel podcast Network listeners this week. Just head to fandle dot com Slash League slash Number Fire, make a lineup and enter for a chance to win free Number Fire Premium as well as a little bit of cash. That's fandle dot com Slash League slash Number Fire for your chance to win. Okay, so this first question is from at Fantasy Bulldog. Can you disregard positive touchdown regression with Leonard Fournette? At this point, their offensive line gets blown up on the majority of short yardage plays inside the five. He doesn't have the speed to take it to the house on a big play. Do his specific circumstances make him a statistical outlier? So let me tell you a little story about this guy who goes by the name Julio. He's a wide receiver in the NFL. It was Week nine of the twenty eighteen season, and Julio hadn't scored a touchdown and he had eighty one targets in eight hundred and twelve yards on the season. Fantasy Twitter was saying the exact same things, that this Julio character just couldn't score touchdowns, that he was bad at scoring touchdowns. Well, Julio went on to score eight touchdowns last year, silencing the haters. Now, look, Leonard Fournette is struggling to find the end zone. I'm with you there, but let's not get carried away with this narrative. Leonard Fournette has a grand total of four goal line rushes this year. To say that the offensive line gets blown up on the majority of short yardage plays inside the five, While that may be true, it's also true on a very very limited sample size. If you want to say that you don't believe in Jacksonville's offense and you don't believe he's going to get a ton of goal line reps, and as a result, you don't think he's gonna regress to what we'd expect him to regress too. Sure, that's a totally fair take, But to assume he's only going to score two total rushing touchdowns this year, I think that's flawed process because even though he hasn't seen a lot of goal line work, he's still accumulating a ton of yards. He's still second in the NFL in red zone rushes, and he's still third in the NFL with seventeen carries within the ten. Even that number alone is an outlier. Since twenty eleven, we've seen a little over one hundred seasons where a running back had fifteen or more carries within the ten yard line. Among those running backs, every single one of them scored at least one touchdown, and all of them with seventeen or more rushes from within the ten had at least two of them.

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Speaker 2: That's more than Leonard Fournette four.

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Speaker 1: Nette's lack of scoring is an outlier, and we should expect him to start scoring at a normal rate moving forward. That's how this stuff works. This nice questions from at pel three to one six. What are your thoughts on Juju? Rest of season? Good game versus Miami? So tempted to sell high but Trading wide receiver for wide receiver in my league is hard, and running back isn't really a position of need for me. Should I sit it out with him and expect wide receiver two numbers rest of season or make a deal.

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go on record.

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Speaker 1: And say that I can't stand same position for same position deals. They sometimes make sense, but there's also a loser in those deals. You're not usually making both teams better that's the goal of trading, so I don't think that I would go with that approach. I also want people to start thinking outside the box more when they're trading. You don't always have to think of trades from a one for one perspective. It doesn't have to just be Juju for a wide receiver or Juju for a running back package. Juju up with one of your running backs and upgrade the running back position. Finding teams in your league that really need help at multiple positions, give them that depth and benefit from a stronger starting roster. Now onto Juju specifically, I think now's not a bad time to sell. He's a great player who can do great things, but the offense is still pretty limited and they're likely going to try to be run heavy. He's got a twenty one percent target share this year, but he's averaging to six point six targets per game, and that's because since Ben Roethlisberger's injury. So if we look at from Week three onward, the Steelers have had a one point zero seven pass to rush attempt ratio. They've been a really run heavy team that numbers one point three eight when you include those games with Ben. I think he can be a lower end wide receiver two from here on out, but I also don't trust that he's going to give you the consistency that you won. This last question says, how can we adjust value from a player in a local ten team league? I e. I've been trying to trade for a top ten RB one, offering two top ten wide receivers but getting declined every time Amari Cooper and Tyler Lockett or Tyreek Hill for Zeke being the latest, which I I think is acceptable. Love the show, by the way, So this sort of goes back to what I just talked about a little bit with trading. But I would just make sure that you're giving the opposing team what they actually need. I'm not saying that you're not doing this. But if the team with Zeke has no RB two and a lot of great wide receivers, that explains why that manager wouldn't want to make a deal like this. But I also think getting elite running backs in fantasy football is always going to be a really difficult thing to do. Teams just aren't gonna be willing to part with Zeke or Dalvin Cook or Christian McCaffrey. They're incredibly valuable assets. But just make sure that you're looking at opposing team need and honestly explain that process to the person that you're selling, to explain why and how it's making both teams better. This next question is from at Pardon my French. First, you already know this, but I love the show.

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Speaker 2: Thanks.

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Speaker 1: Second, when do you officially start to think a player is a bust? For example, Obj this year? How many more weeks until you think he's a major bust. So I'll be honest with you, I never think of anyone as a bust because it doesn't really do us any good actually labeling someone as a bust. Like, let's just say that today on this show, I declare that Odell Beckham is a bust. What does that do for you and your fantasy team. Do you make your decisions in a different way. You're still valuing Obj the exact same way. He's still a talented wide receiver who's seeing a good target share in an offense that's truthfully had a lot of bad passing touchdown luck. So to be honest, I generally don't get concerned over the subjective things that don't really impact my fantasy lineup and how I make decisions. I look at the individual player's game in his peripheral numbers to see whether or not I really want that player on my team or if I want to trade him away. In Obj's case, I still think he should be in my lineup, but I'm always open to trading anyone. This asked questions from at Grant zero zero seven nine zero eight five seven. How do we handle the Gordon Eckler platoon? Is there ever an Eckler game or a Gordon game?

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Speaker 2: Thanks?

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Speaker 1: So, running back is honestly bad enough that we're gonna see both of these players as relevant running backs in PPR formats each and every week, like they can both be top twenty guys. I'd probably say that Eckler has more upside from a snapshare perspective in negative game scripts like they could be in this weekend. So I'd prefer Eckler to Gordon in PPR formats this weekend. But Gordon is still a fine play because it's not like he won't see the field and he's clearly the team's goal line back. I don't see RB one upside with either player without an injury, though, but both are usable enough each week to where they can be in your RB two spot in PPR formats. This next question is from at Mike Underscore and why why can Darius Geiss be a league winner? I think league winner is too strong of a description for Darius Geis, but I do think he has a chance to be usable. Yeah, Washington's offense isn't good no matter who's under center, and we know situation matters a lot for running backs. So far this year, only three teams have scored few running back points than Washington has. Geist does have a chance to be a workhorse. Though Adrian Peterson has consistently been seeing over eighty percent of the team's running back carries, but he's not hitting a ten percent target chair. Geist has that kind of opportunity so yeah, I think that he could be an RB two this year, and I could be wrong about this, but seeing an RB one ceiling in this offense, that seems kind of foolish. This asked questions from at Burns All Lions backfield a giant mess and avoid if you're talking about DFS. Yeah, I would likely avoid the Lions backfield, but I do still think that Ty Johnson is fine to roster still if you're taking a flyer now. I talked about Trey Carson a bit on this week's fifteen Transaction Show, and he's still worth an ad. But Ty Johnson had the more complete usage profile last week, with thirty percent of the team's running back carries and a thirteen percent target chair, and he played the most snaps. He has the most upside. Things can change a lot week to week, so I'd still hold on to both of those running backs, especially Ty Johnson, just to see if one of those guys emerges, especially now that the trade deadline is over and the Lions didn't trade for a running back. This next question is from at f Freak four two zero six to nine. Does Jalen Samuels hold standalone value when James Connor comes back. It was looking like that could be the case before Samuel's got hurt. I'd say it depends on the depth of your league, but there's definitely that possibility. Before his injury, he played a game against Cincinnati where he was being deployed all over the field and he saw forty five percent of the Steelers running back rushes and a stupid high twenty seven percent target share. But he's the right player that you'd won on your roster this time of year. He's a handcuff, but he could also help you in really desperate situations. And don't forget James Connor's basically been hurt in what seems like every single game this year. The Steelers would be smart to make that backfield more of a committee moving forward. They just didn't have much of a choice last week. The next question says, given the nightmare that tight end has been this year, is it finally time to draft one of the consensus top three guys next year or just ignore the small marginal difference for that one position. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean, honestly, I have no idea how you would look at.

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Speaker 1: This season and say that getting a consensus top three tight end was a good idea. Travis Kelce, who was often selected in the first round, is the tight end four and points per game. Zach Ertz is the tight end eight. George Kittle, and this is being recorded before Thursday Night's game, but Kittle is just ahead of Ertz. The thing with tight end, and this is the same with quarterback, but with tight end, you're only starting one of them, so the demand for that position is a lot lower. During your draft, the spread of tight ends and quarterbacks is large, meaning you can get the tight end ten or the quarterback ten very often the double digit rounds, while the RB ten and the wide receiver ten going round two. That changes the opportunity cost equation dramatically because when you get Travis kelcey early, you're not just foregoing the chance for an elite running back and a wide receiver, you're ignoring the fact.

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Speaker 2: That you can get usable tight ends late.

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Speaker 1: I did a show the offseason with my friend rich Reebar on this very topic and we talked about fading the top three tight ends on that show. It's an episode from July if you want to listen to it. And that's something that I'll feel confident doing year in and year out given the structure of fantasy football. This next question is from at JC Berner one. Does the hashtag process change much, if at all, when trying to climb back from a bad record into a playoff spot. Yeah, I think that you just have to probably embrace variants a little bit more. We know that the outlook for certain players is narrow, and then the outlook for other players can be wide. If you're losing, then you're a little more desperate, and if you're more desperate, then you need to look at players who have a wider range of outcomes because the person who has that player may be looking for the opposite. So yes, I'd say that my process does change and I embrace the more volatile players a little bit more. This last question is from at Fantasy wire HQ. It's a little bit more of a personal one. What is your next favorite hobby after fantasy football?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: So, I obviously love fantasy football, and I've made a career out of it. It's one of my favorite things to analyze and work on and do. But I also like playing video games during the off season like everyone else, I love the binge watch TV shows. My wife and I love checking out breweries and hanging out with friends. I mean, I do all the typical stuff, and now that I'm a dad, my favorite hobby is honestly just spending time with my daughter. I know that's kind of a lame answer, but it's a true answer. You know this, dad's when you've got kids, your life revolves around them in the best way possible. So I guess it don't have a traditional answer, like I build tables in my garage. That's actually what my wife does as a hobby. I used to be really into web and graphic design, though, but that's sort of just gone away with my focus on my job in fantasy football.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of nice to just focus on my job, my family, and the typical things that we all do, like drinking.

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Speaker 1: Good beer and watching Netflix. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got to subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. And also if you could leave me a rating and review on Apple podcast, it would be greatly greatly appreciated. Thanks everyone, Enjoy your weekend and best of luck in Week nine.