917: Mailbag 9/27/24

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Speaker 1: This is the last with your host JJ Zachera J zacher reefon What's up Everyone. It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode nine and seventeen of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. Before we get into the mailback questions this week, I want to remind you to check out Underdog over on Underdog right now. You can play pick them, but there's some really cool bestball contests, like their new Best Ball Resurrection tournament. If you sign up over there with promo code Late Round, you'll get a nice deposit offer, a free pick that'll help you win some cash, and then also my rest of season rankings. Those rest of season rankings are updated every Tuesday through the end of the season. You get access to all of those updates. Make sure you take advantage of these offers. Head to Underdog Fantasy dot com or download the Underdog app, and when you sign up, make sure you use promo code Late Round. The first question this week is from Patreon. It's from Matthew. It says, with the recent news coming out of McCaffrey's visit to Germany, do you think he will be out for the rest of the season, or if he has a chance of coming back, would there be any elite tier players you would trade for him? Thanks JJ. Now I'm not surprised by it, but a ton of people are asking me this week about Christian McCaffrey, and I've got to say, you guys, there are some questions that I get where I just legitimately have no idea. I have no real answer for it. I don't even think the forty nine ers know the answer to this question. So for me to sit on this podcast and pretend like I have a clear answer would be stupid. I tell people all the time that I like to make moves. I like to trade when it's related to something that I can actually control. I can't control Christian McCaffrey's situation, but I can control how I evaluate talent. Like I saw one breakdown where they said that he might be back week eight, but there's a better chance he was back week twelve. Now, this isn't a diss to the person who said that. It's that there's so little information about what's going on, not just because of the media and the forty nine ers and how they're handling it, but because it's clearly not an injury that's got some set timeline to it. I don't know whether you go for Christian McCaffrey depends entirely on your own risk tolerance period. That's it. I will say though, that I don't think this Germany stuff is necessarily a bad thing. It sounds like he's trying to get treatment that he can't get in the United States because he wants to speed up the recovery process. That's not a bad thing. It's only a bad thing if you thought that he would be back in like week six. So anything CMC related, I honestly can't really help you with it. I know as much as you do. All I can say is that if you want a high variance player, one who could sink your team but also win you a championship, then feel free to target him. If you don't want to invite that kind of variance on your team, which I totally totally understand, then don't trade for him. I know that's an obvious answer, but that's the true answer. It's honestly how I feel about this situation. I don't want to sit on this podcast, or sit on social media or on my Patreon and act like I have answers that I don't have. That's disingenuous. This next question is from at RKA Davidson thirteen on Twitter. It says, is there any data or even hope to think Javonte Williams can turn things around and get back to being a productive fantasy running back? So a lot of people are tilting about Javonte Williams Angelill McLoughlin to some degree. I was high McLoughlin in particular entering the season. I know a lot of you are ready for my perspective on the situation, especially the haters. Now, this is trending towards an L but I think there are two pieces of data that we can point to to make us feel a little bit better about this situation. First, Denver's offense has been predictably bad. They have three offensive touchdowns this season, they're bottom ten in yards per game, they're bottom ten and EPA per play, And both Javonte Williams and Jelil McLoughlin have been insanely inefficient. That's especially true of Williams, who basically has only been better than DeAndre Swift this year across the league. Now, I think this was expected to some degree. I've talked a lot about how running backs on teams with rookie quarterbacks usually don't become huge league winners. The reason I was okay with going heavy with Jeli McLoughlin, and why I started to buy into Jamonte Williams a week or two before the season started, or at least buy more into him, was because of pass catching. Sean Payton's teams from twenty eleven to last year had never ranked worse than sixth and running back target share in a single season. Now you can say that that was all personnel based, but they were first last season. Look at the running backs they had last year. You can say it was all Drew Brees being a checkdown king, but Russell Wilson was a checkdown king for Sean Payton, and Russell Wilson's teams in Seattle typically ranked in the twenties and running back target share. This is a Sean Payton thing. And not only were those offensive tendencies there for this offense, but bo Nicks seem like the right quarterback to pair with that. So far this year, Denver ranks below average and running back target share. Their running back target share is almost half of what it was last year. That's a huge, huge problem. That's literally the reason that any of us were bullish on them, whether it was McLaughlin or even Javonte Williams. Now you're probably thinking, where's the hopeful data, then, JJ, Well, the hopeful data is that we've only seen three games. It started poorly, but rookie quarterbacks tend to get better, and I do think that we're still likely going to see more running back targets moving forward given what we've seen historically. So it's been bad. It's been no doubt bad, and in most leagues you're not confidently playing those Denver running backs right now. But that's how you can think about things more optimistically. This ess course from at Zach seven four five five six one four four it says, what is the ceiling of Bucky Irving rest of season? Now? Obviously he's banged up right now, let's just ignore that for the time being. But look, I brought up Bucky Irving multiple times in this podcast this season already. I've had him as an ad all of that. But I think people are taking the Bucky Irving takeover a little bit too far. As long as Rashad White is healthy, I don't see him not having a role on this team, at least as a pass catcher. Receiving has not been Rashad White's problem in the past. It's been his rushing. He's been an inefficient runner, and Irving's been the opposite of that to start the year. Now, it's not in apples to Apple's comparison because White is seeing different types of looks. But Irving has been better than White on the ground. Anyone can see that. So I could see a scenario where Irving maybe has like a sixty five to thirty five advantage on the ground this season versus Rashad White. Even last week we saw him with a running back rush here above fifty percent. The problem is pass catching. I think that component is capped for Bucky Irving because White's being used that way right now. He's being used that way because he's pretty reliable as a pass catcher. Now, Irving's not that bad either, but this is not a situation like let's say Zack Moss, where Moss has been the pass catching back for Cincinnati because of pass protection, because he's just a little bit more reliable, But he's not special as a pass catcher or at least well above average. Rashad White is actually a plus in the receiving game. So I think for Bucky Irving to be truly unleashed, he probably does need a Rashad White injury. With that being said, it's nice to have a player who can have that flex value, maybe even be your RB two for a particular build. It's nice having that guy when you know he also has contingent upside. This sess question from Patreon is from CJE Walters. It says, what should we expect out of Xavier Worthy in the Kansas City offense? Is he's strictly a touchdown dependent play week to week. So I got a couple of worthy questions this week. Let's talk about them. If you listen to the ten Trends episode this week, you heard me talk about this Chiefs offense a bit. Patrick Mahomes is not throwing it deep. He's taking what defenses are giving him, and that's resulted in the Rashid Rice show. Like among all relevant quarterbacks this year, there have been thirty one who have played one hundred and more snaps. Among those thirty one, Patrick Mahomes rings thirtieth an average depth of target. Baker Mayfield is last he's the only one who's lower. Now that being said, Mahomes's a dot is actually a good bit lower than it was last year. So what we've seen to this point, well, I do think it's going to continue, Like the idea is going to continue. We should expect some more down the field shots. That's just based on regression and what we even saw last season. But that's been a problem for Worthy so far. According to Sports Info Solutions, three of Worthies eleven targets have come fifteen or more yards down the field fifteen plus air yard targets, so their relatively deep looks. That's a rate of over twenty seven percent. Rashi Rice meanwhile, he's only seen two targets that have gone fifteen plus air yards. His rate of seeing those targets is six point eight percent. Meanwhile, Rice is seeing all the underneath stuff on targets that travel five or fewer air yards. Worthy has six of those. That's about fifty five percent of his targets. Rashi Rice has seen twenty two twenty two targets that have traveled five or fewer air yards. That's a seventy six percent rate. The problem is that Worthy and even Travis Kelsey to Ald agree. If you watch this Chiefs offense, they're essentially opening things up for Rashi Rice in this low aid on offense. It's not that Rice is bad. They're getting him the ball because he's really good after the catch. But this is how this offense is operating, and considering the Chiefs haven't been lighting it up offensively, I don't know if defenses are going to play them much differently now. I do it expect mahomes aid out, like I said earlier, to regress a little bit, to rise a little bit, and that's naturally going to allow Worthy to make some more explosive plays, so things will get better. I just at this moment don't think that we're going to see the Chiefs throwing it all over the field like they did with Tyreek Hill. That means that Worthy, given his current usage, is more boom bust than we'd probably want. But at least we know there's boom potential. He's seen a decent percentage of his targets down the field, and considering his target share, his air yard share is pretty strong. I also think they're naturally just going to give the more manufactured touches as the season goes on. Remember he's a rookie. He's played three NFL games, So I really don't think that we're going to see a wide receiver two season this year from Xavier Worthy, but he's good enough to potentially be a volatile wide receiver three. This next questions for Patreon is from dj Reeese zero four to one to six. It says, I'd love to hear your thoughts on the buying low strategy. For example, many suggested targeting Jamar Chase after his rough first two weeks, especially with a good matchup against Washington ahead. But when any savvy manager actually sell him at a steep discount, it feels like buying low often means taking advantage of less andformed managers. Can this strategy, ever, truly benefit both parties? So I had a conversation about this with Pat Meyo on last week's Late Round Perspectives episode. But yeah, like the idea of buying and selling is completely subjective. It's why I have to provide so much context to my buy and sell transactions each week on the fifteen Transaction Show. I also, though, can't just not talk about something just because I'm making assumptions about the fantasy football public. It's quite literally impossible to just capture everyone's sentiment on a player, So I try to mix in some buy transactions like that one, like buying Jamar Chase, while also mixing in some of the people wouldn't be thinking about as much, like buying Romeo Dobbs. Like on the show earlier this week, I could have easily said to I Jaden Reid because Reid is an awesome player and he's getting Jordan Love back. But instead of focusing on that, I just briefly mentioned it as sort of an aside. I made the focus Romeo Dobbs. There are players that I end up being higher and lower on versus Fantasy pros consensus in my rec of season rankings every single week. Many of them don't make the fifteen Transaction show. I post them on Patreon for patrons. But the players who make fifteen transactions, they're the ones who almost kind of have a story behind them. Like let me give you an example. I do my rec of season rankings after I do my fifteen Transaction show in order for fifteen transactions to be in your inbox for the newsletter or in your podcast feeds on Tuesday morning. I need to work on it on Monday, so my Monday is spent finding the right transactions to post and then writing that column, and that column then turns into a podcast that you guys can listen to. The previous week of games, though aren't even done yet because we have Monday Night football, and because of that, there's not much content out there aside from wave Wire columns, which means even if my rest of season rankings were done, which I start working on those Monday night while I watch the Monday night game, but even if those were done, I'd have nothing to compare them to. I have no idea what the market is really thinking. It's not until Tuesday when I realize who I'm actually higher on or lower on versus the market, and I do that by comparing my rest of season rankings with people who have updated their is on Fantasy pros. What that means is that there are players who seem like even more obvious buys after I do the fifteen transaction show, and there are instances where I say to sell a player, but then I find out I'm actually higher on that player. I like that player more than consensus. This makes the choosing of buy and sell players kind of difficult, if I'm being honest. So what I have to do is just use intuition, use my experience, and I have to come up with buys and sells who have a mathematical story to tell. Like Jamar Chase, you objectively weren't going to have a buy window, so even an ounce of a by window after he played Washington, So I called that out Romeo Dobbs this week, I just kind of figured that most people would be really focused on Jaden Reid for good reason. So I thought to myself, Hey, what if I focused our attention on the guy who's running the most routes for the Packers right now, who might just be a lower key edition as opposed to going with a bigger deal to get the more talented wide receiver in Jaden Reid. There's no perfect way of doing this, just given the schedule of the NFL and the schedule of fantasy football content, but I can at least tell you, guys, and I'm trying to mix in transactions that could be helpful for casual leagues and more helpful for competitive ones, but that at least reveals some of the things in my head. As I work on that column every Monday, and I'll be the first to admit I'm rooting for nothing crazy to happen on Monday night, because if that happens, I have to change everything up after I already recorded it. This sess question is from at Ajak Jewles. It says, Jonathan Brooks value you assuming red Rifle continues to start. This is yet another question that I got a ton this week, And honestly, this kind of plays into what I just talked about with a fifteen Transactions episode with buying and selling. Brooks was one of those players who I thought would be too obvious of a buye after what we saw from Andy Dalton in week three, so I didn't feature him on fifteen Transactions. Part of the thought process there though, it was like, what am I exactly gonna say right now that I haven't already said. Brooks was a very good prospect. He ranked close to Kenneth Walker in the ZAP model. He's not that kind of player. I'm just saying their scores were really close. They're two very different backs. Dave Canalis talked up Brooks a good bit after they made that pick, saying that they can use him in the passing game, and considering Canalis's usage of Rashad White last year, that's very, very intriguing. Now. I do think that we're bound to see them slowly ramp Brooks up before he gets a true bell cow workload. But Andy Dalton's performance in Week three was honestly huge for Brooks because not only could Carolina just be more competitive than we thought after Week two we thought they were done. We thought they were gonna be the worst team in NFL history. But now that offense has some life, and with a better offense comes more opportunities, both in terms of volume and plays run, but also scoring opportunities. So if anyone has Brooks on waivers, or if Brooks is easy to acquire, I would take that chance. He's a relatively low cost asset with a lot of upside. As I wrote in my draft guide this year, since twenty eleven, we've had ten rookie running backs get drafted in the RB twenty to RB forty range with a prospect score above ninety three. Of those ten, four of them were moderate breakouts. Those are players who exceed ADP expectation by three or more PPR points per game. That's a very good hit rate. That's like double of what you'd expect. It's a small sample, but it's at least something. Now, there are definitely some weird circumstances with Brooks given the ACL, but there's also a lot that points to a high ceiling. And I think think at the very least think about the downside case. You get a committee back who would probably be the one A in that backfield down the stretch, so that downside case, as long as he's playing, it may not be as bad as you think. The last question this week is from at Sebold Dan five three six' eighty. One it says handcuffing your own running backs limits upside on your, Bench but where is the line for when this makes? Sense obviously HANDCUFFING cmc With mason has saved some, seasons but are, others like charbonnay For walker worth doing. So through the, Years i've gotten legitimate hate mail from people who yell at me because of How i've talked about handcuffing and fantasy. Football that's not even. Hyperbole it's apparently a very sensitive. Topic handcuffing has really evolved through the, years though ten years AGO i did a study on. It we had more clearcut handcuffs and fantasy football back, then WHICH i define as backup running backs who have zero value unless an injury happens to their. Starter today we have more split, backfields so there are fewer and fewer of those. Players there are, backups but many of those backups can still hold some fantasy value week to. Week my stance on even backup running, backs, though has been about. UPSIDE i Think christian McCaffrey's a weird example because he entered the season banged, up so you may have approached that. Differently But Brece, hall let's talk About Brice. Hall he's the better. Example on teams WHERE i Have Breece, HALL i didn't actively Draft Braylan, allen but that doesn't mean THAT i don't Have Braylan allen across my fantasy. Leagues it, said on teams WHERE i don't Have, hall let's SAY i drafted B Jean. Robinson some of those TEAMS i Have Braylan. Allen and people hear that and they're, like, man you're an. Idiot what happens If Breece hall goes? Down and everyone please knock on wood right, now but, YEAH i get. THAT i totally get. That but what happens to my other teams if Bres hall goes? Down what happens to those teams WHERE i Have Braylan allen and Not Breeze. Hall NOW i have powerhouse. Teams what people should get from this discussion is that it actually should be team. Dependent how you approach handcuffs depends on your. Team, NOW i approach my drafts that, way BUT i adjust as the season goes. On If i'm sitting at three and oh right, now or IF i get To week eight and my team's, Undefeated i'll almost definitely go with a more conservative, approach which is handcuffing my own running. BACK i might even make a trade to secure that. Handcuff but if my team is sitting at oh and three right now AND i lose again this, week That i've got to embrace that upside. More and the upside move is the roster backup running backs WHERE i don't have their starter on my. Team it's to Get Tyler aljeer WHEN i don't Have Bijon robinson BECAUSE i need. Upside and my general argument is that upside does win, championships and that more of you probably need that upside versus protecting your. Downside that's WHY i generally say to handcuff other running. Backs but like most things in fantasy, football it's, team it's, league and it's manager. Dependent if you're risk, averse just do. You there's no clear cut right or wrong answer. Here it's more so understanding the other side of the argument and just seeing that there's another side of the, argument which in this CASE i think there absolutely, is so hopefully that helps you understand what you should do with your individual. Team that's it for today's, show, though thanks to all of you for. Listening if yet subscribe to The Late Round Fantasy football, podcast make sure you are by serving for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found follow me On twitter At Late ROUND. Qb thanks for listening. EVERYONE i got A Late Round perspective's episode dropping later. Today hope you give that a. Listen, otherwise good luck and week. Four i'll talk to you next. Week