Over/Unders with Nick Wright

00:00:04
Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we've just been killing time since our last over under win Totals draft. I'm Greg Rosenthal and I am so excited to be joined this year by my number one pick for this show. It's Nick Right. You know them, hopefully you love them. They've expanded First Things First to an extra hour. It's three to six every day Eastern. He also has a great show on YouTube, What's Right with Nick? Right? Nick, you talk so much openly about your maybe irresponsible gambling that you just felt like the right man for this show.

00:00:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, listen, everyone should gamble responsibly, but that is a do as I say, not as I do, edict. And yeah, this is the best time of year, and thank you for it. Is a true pleasure to be on my favorite daily podcast. That is not an exaggeration, that is true. It has helped. It is the best way for me to keep up with everything that's happening in the NFL during the off season. And if I may shout out Jordan Rodrieg, who I've never met, never spoken with, who I think just does an awesome job. I also feel like I know Nick Shook really well from the pods, and I know there's a whole cast of characters and everybody does a great job. But I really appreciate you having me on. And now I get is are there stakes on this? Like? How do we determine winners? Is there? Because there I wanted.

00:01:32
Speaker 1: For the NFL, which has saved me a lot of you know, drama internally. But I think we can. I think we can figure out something that could make it fun. That's that's just something.

00:01:43
Speaker 2: We could just be podcasts related like the winner, like the the winner has to have the other guys podcast logo in the background for an episode or something perfect. I don't you know what I mean that feels because I feel confident.

00:01:57
Speaker 1: I've honked about it too much. But I'm gonna three year heater with this show. You know, we did it back in the around the NFL days. We've only done three to four picks every year, so it's it's just ten picks over the last three years. So I'm ten and oh over the last three years doing this show.

00:02:14
Speaker 2: Wait, you're hold on, You have eleven and one. You haven't missed one.

00:02:19
Speaker 1: Haven't missed a single? One three and oh four O four O. Now I'm good. That streak's probably ending today because we were talking and I agree, it's just the two of us. It's been three or four in the past. I think it'd be fun to get to more shows. And actually, if you check out What's right with Nick, right, he's going through each and every team. But I've I've avoided that. That's already up on his show.

00:02:38
Speaker 2: So I was worried about that. I was avoiding to front where you're going to get to know my my process? Can I ask a rule here?

00:02:46
Speaker 1: Yes? All right?

00:02:48
Speaker 2: If you take a team, yes, is that team is Let's say you had the I'm just going to pick a random one. Let's say you had the Eagles and you had them over eleven and a half. Do I have the ability to take the under on that scene? Okay, so teams get the only thing can't happen. I can't have the exact same bet. But teams are eligible. Yes, that is exact strategy.

00:03:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, to to put your stake down and say what are your favorite picks and what we can't double up on them? So it's a draft back and forth and yeah, we're we're using the over underwind totals that are like the most common. I think we took this one off of ESPNS. We don't we don't, we don't have a sponsor right now for picks, but hey, ESPN just bought us, so why not nick I, because you know I do wanted to just come to this fresh. I didn't look at your picks, although I held back giving away one of mine the other show just in case you were listening out of strategy. But I will give you the first pick, and I kind of have a feeling where you're going.

00:03:53
Speaker 2: So here's the thing. You you think you know where I'm going. You think that, and you're draft strategy has probably been based a bit around that. You you really have the first pick because you know where I'm going to use my first pick. It's a little princess bride. He knows that, I know that, he knows that I know situation. So I'm gonna throw you a curveball and not go with the team you think I'm going to go with. I'm gonna go with the team. Very few people believe in this season. The team a lot of people think is not even going to win their own division, much less win their conference. And that is the nobody believes in US underdog Kansas City Chiefs to go over eleven and a half wins. Listen, I know, listen, I know they were there. They're unwatchable these days. It's you know, they play a boring brand of football that there is. You know, the league can only help them with so many conspiracies. By the way, if we check back in on the Rashi Rice isn't being suspended because God knows, no one's gonna watch Chiefs Eagles in Week two if Rashie Rice isn't there. That was a smart take. Friends. I'll go with the Chiefs to hit their over like they do literally every single year.

00:05:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, you you got me for a second. I did start thinking about my strategy because the Chiefs would have been and I did write them down in order of confidence. They would have either been my second or third pick overall. Like I am totally with you on they're over. They have been a pick in this exercise previously, I believe two or three years ago, maybe both a lot of times, like the easiest ones are the best teams being most consistent. Now I am at the point though it almost I don't think it's a zag. But we just did our award predictions with Jordan yesterday, and you know we both had Mahomes for MVP. I do just feel like, you know, we are going to get a much more entertaining, better Chiefs offense, better Mahomes season. And they're eleven and a half? What is there over under this year? And yeah, I feel pretty good with their schedule right around thirteen, So I'm with you.

00:05:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, they're the their schedule is hard every year because they're in the super Bowl every year, and they see they're also.

00:06:04
Speaker 1: On the AFC West. So let's calm down. It's fine. Fine, what do you mean, it's like an average division? It's it's fine. Something crazy.

00:06:11
Speaker 2: I agree with you on that actually, But but I don't know if you've heard about Drew Brees two point zero bo Nix. I mean I'm not sure save it if okay, sorry, go ahead.

00:06:24
Speaker 1: Well no, you never know. I mean, if maybe we could do a Broncos under in this pot, because yeah, like we talked about, I'm I'm giving up the dream of being undefeated for a fourth grade year because we're going to make so many picks. Although I swear to god, I made a long list last year and it was it was freaking outrageous. Now I need to share it with people because people think I was outrageous.

00:06:45
Speaker 2: No, no, no, people don't listen. I'll be honest. There are people in the media that I think the audience looks at and they're like, yeah, that guy is a liar. You're not one of them. I don't think people think you're out here making things up. Here's what I would say, because I kind of pushed you for us to do more. Yes, what if only the first five count for your historical record, to give yourself a chance? Then then the Rester bonus pick.

00:07:12
Speaker 1: That seems confusing to me. Okay, that's fine, arm who's your I think it's actually a good thing. It's like Egish Fiantek this year. She was defending the French Open for like the fourth or fifth time. The pressure was so mention at this point she just had to lose to get it out of the way, and then she became Egashviiontek again. I don't need that sort of pressure. I need a loss. I'm taking the Lions over ten and a half as my first pick, and I know the you know DVOA in the advanced analytics site. Look at their schedule and look at some of the last season and there's a reason that number is so low that in general, the NFC North is loaded. The out of division schedule is absolutely outrageous. Their road schedule is preposterous because they're playing all the best teams in the league on the road, the Chiefs, the Ravens, the Bengals, the Eagles, the Rams. I mean, that's crazy to play that many good teams on the way. I'm just not going to go get too complicated here. To me, they are right there at the very top of the NFL with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Ravens and the Eagles. As the best team. You give me ten and a half, I think that division is a little overrated in terms of the competition. I still think they're easily the most talented and best coach team, and so I'm not gonna think too hard. I'll go Lions over ten and a half.

00:08:20
Speaker 2: Oh okay, so that wouldn't have been one of my picks, but that is because I did all thirty I did on What's Right with Nick Wright get it wherever you get your podcast, the I did twelve bets and then but the other twenty teams, I still said which side I was leaning on you know. So for the Lions, they weren't one of my bets, but I did lean over. Here is my only trepidation. You said they're going to be really well coached. We hope we know that Dan Campbell is like the head. They're going to be really well coached. But are they gonna have good schematics? And here is a take I've kind of been working on, which is culture setting is wildly important for a bad team that you're taking over, and once you graduate to contender, schematics are more important, like because it's easier to have a good culture when you're you know, playing meaningful games all those things. So I think Dan Campbell is the heartbeat of that team, but I also think they could miss Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn. And then my only if we look up and the Lions went seven and ten, which again I do not think, is they have too much talent. I don't thing's going to happen. But if they are the team that's like, oh my god, what happened to them? I think the only way that happens is if the playoff game plus the loss of Ben Johnson rattled golf who you guys have talked about on quarterback Island, and you know about how consistent he is at this point. I just think that that type of catastrophic postseason performance coming on the heels of not a catastrophic, but a devastating postseason loss, I would say there's a ten percent chance that you know, golf is shaken because of it. Again, I like your pick.

00:10:16
Speaker 1: I mean, why would it be shaken now? He's had so many clunkers in big spots. It does happen. It's why you know, I feel anxious about predicting them to win the super Bowl, but ten and a half games, the schematics take. I do like that one, Like does he have a little Mike Tomlin in them who has not done a good job? The difference is I think man Campbell was so good at picking his coaching staff and coaching up his coaching staff and developing them as a coaching staff that I have faith in his coordinator on defense, especially Calvin Shepherd who's been there, and I just think that defense is going to be so much better and that gives him them a lot of wig over them. I am a little worried because they're just talking about other playoffs only matter if we're a team that you know, goes eleven and six or whatever. It's okay if we have less wins as long as the playoffs only matters. I do worry. I might have to sweat this a little bit, but not not too much. I just took it as the one pick. All right, you're up. All right.

00:11:05
Speaker 2: This is a team that I think, going into December will be alive to be the one seed in their conference, and that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over nine and a half. So I have two vary and we'll get to the other one later whether you pick it or I do, you know, kind of bullish or bearish predictions that I am preparing that, you know, midway through October. On first things first, the topic bar is going to say, Nick, ready to admit you were wrong about dot dot dot because I think that it is that a team that I think is going to be mediocre is going to start strong, and the Bucks I think are going to be excellent. But I could see them starting media, you know, starting average. But their final ten games for Tampa Bay are at the Saints home for the Patriots. That's not an easy one at the Bills obviously tough at the Rams, than Cardinals, Saints, Falcons all in Tampa at the Panthers, at the Dolphins, which at that point might be being coached by interim head coach, and then home for the Panthers to end the year. I think they could finish super strong. I love Abuka they I thought it was somewhat shocking that Worfs and Godwin are on the active roster, even if it doesn't mean they're going to play Week one. I like their opening three games as well, Falcons, Texans, Jets, and I think that Baker Mayfield knows I am one more awesome year away from being in the fifty five million dollars a year club. I know that hurts your feelings, Greg, which it shouldn't because he's part of the short king club alongside you. I love that tall.

00:13:00
Speaker 1: If you're trying to put six foot tall people.

00:13:06
Speaker 2: Amongst his peers, I get it. He is is.

00:13:09
Speaker 1: He's not undersized for weirdly amongst my peers, like a Nebbish, short looking Jewish guy is pretty average.

00:13:15
Speaker 2: So no, I was going to say, yeah, absolutely, like you're like amongst your are you are taller compared to your peers than than Baker is compared to his oddly, but but I will take the Bucks Over nine and a half with an absolute bullet.

00:13:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love it. I'm already regretting not watching your shows on purpose because I did clock that, because I could have strategized that was pretty high up there on my list. Eric, our producer, and I kind of forgot we did a first look at over Unders. I didn't make any picks, but back in April when they came out, just like we just you know, shot it around with Nick Schuk and I went and checked what I said on that, and the one thing I'd kind of forgotten I said that then I was like, oh, yeah, that's right. I should trust me for a instinct, was that Bucks over nine and a half looked crazy to me? Because I'm with you, I think they have a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl. I always look at line play, like their defensive line I think is going to be a lot better this year because of asan reddick, because of the development of some of their younger guys, even even on the edge that people don't know, like a Chris braswell, And I just think their defense is going to be better in general. And I love the consistency on offense. So yeah, that's a little in the division. In the division and it's nine and a half. I thought they'd be ten and a half.

00:14:29
Speaker 2: There's two teams in that division that could have the number one pick of the draft. Yeah, I don't you know what I mean. I don't think the Panthers will be quite that bad as sorry to Saints block party. The Saints, I do think will be that bad. But yes, yes, yes, And I'm producer Eric.

00:14:48
Speaker 1: By the way, I think has had a journey that a lot of your fans, your listeners have gone through. He's a Bills fan, so I think he had complicated feelings about Nick right, But yeah, I think you've won him over over time. You know that you know Ball that he doesn't just hate you now he respects you and hates you.

00:15:06
Speaker 2: Two things have happened with me and Bills fans. One is I got a little credit with them because last year, when everyone was way prematurely short selling them, I was like, Oh, I think they're actually going to be really, really good.

00:15:21
Speaker 1: They were my number one overall pick in the over underdraft last year.

00:15:24
Speaker 2: By the way, you and I were we talked about it last year that people were I thought that people had overrated the talent of the players on the previous Bills teams who then left, which then made them underrate the Bills because they thought they had lost more than they had lost. So I think that helped. And the other thing that helped is it's hard to be mad at me for just being right every year, and so like at some point they're like, you're a hater that they're like, okay, but so yeah, and we had Dion Dawkins on the show, and he seems to be He's a delightful fellow. I like him a lot. I didn't love that he kept calling me nicky. It felt like dismissive, but I did enjoy the spot.

00:16:06
Speaker 1: But go ahead, he must be well like because he got ranked in the top forty of the NFL Networks players. And I was just like, man, his teammates, and I mean, he's a good player, his teammates in the league, but just like love that dude as a human too. Not saying okay, let's go second pick. So I went back and tracked and by the way, Bill, Yeah, Bill's overs were two on my picks in the last couple of years. I've really gotten at the top of the league in the bottom of the league the last two years. Teams I think are going to stink and teams I think are going to be great. This is a team I think is gonna stink, which is getting seven and a half games. It is the Indianapolis Colt. Let's go under. No. I thought about taking this first. Overall, I like my gut. I try not to overthink these things, to be honest, and I just was like, man, this team could absolutely stink. You agree? Oh?

00:16:54
Speaker 2: Not only do I agree? I now have major fomo because I was debate whether or not to take them with my second pick. Yes, I think they could have the number one pick of the draft.

00:17:06
Speaker 1: I think it's all the board.

00:17:08
Speaker 2: I think that. Uh. Part of that is just, in my opinion, the football karma of how they handled Anthony Richardson in the quarterback situation in Daniel Jones, and I don't I just feel like they deserve a super down year. Another part of it is like, is there a single player on that offense? I love like Jonathan Taylor theoretically, but you if we were to you know, rank running backs one through whatever, Like I think Jonathan Taylor probably shows up a little lower than you would initially think, and I just I feel like they deserve some come up. And for drafting a quarterback who never played in college basically and everyone being like, listen, the guy can leap tall buildings in a single bound and is fast than the speed of light. We don't know if he can throw, but hey, this unmolded clay and then fifteen games in being like screw it, Daniel Jones like, I just hate the process of that so much, and so I agree. I agree with you wholeheartedly. And then division wise, without again giving away, I think the AFC South could be a little better than people expect this year. So you're not like, that's really a does cam Ward you know, make them viable adjacent question? And so because of all those reasons, yeah, I love I love that pick for you. It was jealous.

00:18:42
Speaker 1: It was partly like Shane Stiken's press conference and he's clearly warring with his general manager, and I just was watching it out and thinking, oh man, this is these are the signs of a team that completely implodes. Everyone knows that there about to get fired. They're not agreeing from the top, like there's new ownership in theory with Jim Merseys dot. It reminds me a lot of the Panthers a couple of years ago in Bryce Young's rookie year, who were getting like six and a half or seven that people who were kind of up on them, And just there's a lot here that I think is bigger than football that I'm worried about. And then you look at the football itself. You're placing a couple of guys on the offensive line. You're hoping lou Ana Roumo, you know, helps that defense. Shane Steiken has gotten this team to win and the schedule is not bad, so that that concerns me a little bit. But sometimes I think you got to look, you know, beyond just the x's and the o's and the guys on the team, because there are good weapons around Daniel Jones. I kind of like their skill position group overall. But to me, it's a more you know, yeah, I think they have four wide receivers, you like. I like Tyler Warren enough, like Jonathan Taylor is a good like if you put a real quarterback and a better situation, like I would like this team find, but we were not in that world and I'm going under. And you know what I love in the these exercises. It's like I had the Giants last year and the Bears. I love when, like you know, you already won by week thirteen, they're stuck at two or three wins. Oh yeah, I got that seven or eight, and I think they are the most likely team that that is.

00:20:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how that's most most years with the Chiefs over you have a you have a clocked byes just after Thanksgiving and you're mentioning a stike in Ballard potential, you know, power struggle. So shame neither one of those guys who's spent a bunch of years cultivating friends in the media to have his back of that.

00:20:29
Speaker 1: That's a good call. Yeah, Chris Ballard has lasted. He has the Jeff Fisher sort of memorial lasting a couple of years extra just because he's he's well connected.

00:20:39
Speaker 2: All right, go ahead, all right, Well you've you know, you've shaken up my draft board. I had a very clear top three and one of them's been taken now, so I am going to go with my third consecutive over and it is a team in the same division as one of my other over which typically you don't want to do. But I feel that strongly about you went from a bottom three coach to maybe top ten, bottom three quarterback to top twelve. And that is the Las Vegas Raiders, who I understand are going to have some trouble defensively. However, if we know anything about Pete Carroll, it is he will coach up your secondary. Max Crosby's awesome. And is it on the board that the defense will naturally be a bit better because they don't have the energy sapped that a team has by having awful quarterback play. You add to it that I love Jenty Bowers is great. I don't have to preach the gospel of Geno to you. And listen, I on my show, I picked the Raiders to make the playoffs. Wow, I need seven wins for this. I think the Raiders over is a very very healthy bet.

00:22:08
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think this is going to be your worst take of the this. Wow, well not the over. That's fine. Can they win seven games? I'm going to go against it if we do a long enough list. And now I don't need to take that pick anytime soon because I know where you're going. But making the playoffs seems crazy to me. I mean, I get it, best defensive coach all that. I also like to pick what I'm rooting for, and I am rooting for the Raiders this year because of Gino, So I'm conflicted. But Pe Carol wasn't a good defensive coach for like the last eight years of his career in Seattle, and that roster stinks. I mean it is. I think it is the worst defensive roster in the NFL. I actually don't think it's close, even though it has Max Crosby. They are thirty two, thirty one thirty so that just seems like a lot to overcome for me.

00:22:55
Speaker 2: So that's that's disappointing. I thought you might be with me because you're like, you know so much.

00:23:00
Speaker 1: I do, and I'm rooting for it. So I'll be conflicted when I take the under. Later, if we go long enough, we'll see how many we get through. I'm gonna go with one I know you're not taking. Maybe I should be strategic. Then let's actually go one further down the list and let's go Vikings over eight and a half. Now, that was one of the things that stuck with me all the way Sinceabril you look surprised.

00:23:24
Speaker 2: Oh, I am very surprised.

00:23:26
Speaker 1: I know they won. What did they win last year?

00:23:28
Speaker 2: Fourteen fourteen games and.

00:23:30
Speaker 1: The Bears won five, by the way, and they have the exact same over under this year. I just think people are just like, oh, how could we possibly recover from losing Sam Donald? Just think of all the teams that fell apart after they got rid of Sam Donald. It's like, no, Sam Donald was not that important to this team. The offensive scheme, the best wide receiver in the NFL, the coach, they were what's important, and oh, by the way, like the best defense in the NFL, or maybe the most talented entering year three. I get the schedules really tough, and I'm betting on two NFC North teams here, which is, like you mentioned, a little tricky to go over on both of them. But eight and a half just felt like I would be really surprised if this team had a losing record this year. I really would. I like them better than the Packers. I like them, you know, to win. I would put them. If it was at nine and a half, I'd go over that too. Here's my only question on the best defense in football. Part of it so many turnovers last year like.

00:24:31
Speaker 2: That is that that is the one piece of that that is a little concerning, and the other pieces, obviously, JJ McCarthy, with the limited experience in college we have, You're right that we have seen Kevin O'Connell win with Cousins and Donald and you know, and get the best out of those guys. What we haven't seen Kevin O'Connell do is win with inexperience, Like Donald's experience was bad, but it was experience. Cousins had a bunch of experience obviously when Kevin O'Connell got there, and so JJ not playing a ton in college, being that young, and then missing all of last year, that to me would be a concern. Plus I'm probably higher on the Bears than you are, leads to where I would it is hard to go from fourteen wins to seven wins like that is relatively speaking, pretty rare. But I wouldn't have gone with the over so that you could have taken this whenever you wanted it.

00:25:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the thing. After doing these vats, everyone has much different opinions. Anyways, it was surprising actually that we had so much in common, at least with the Chiefs and the Colts up at the top. But I feel great about this. Dosmentella said, this is their master's level. The year on the defense, year three, I think I think they're going to be peaking. All right, you're up next.

00:25:53
Speaker 2: All right. This is one that I fear you might have tipped your hand a bit when you the AFC West. Isn't that good? This is one of my This goes hand in hand with my Raiders over the Denver Broncos are not winning ten games under nine and a half.

00:26:14
Speaker 1: I love this. It's pretty low on my list, so I'm fine with you taking it and taking more of the heat from the Broncos fans who are They're just out there.

00:26:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, listen, be happy you live in one of the most beautiful cities in the world. Be happy that you get to watch Nikola Jokic play basketball. There's a lot of things to be happy about that you live in Denver, But this, I I could go quite some time about the lunacy of how overvalued I find this team to be. First of all, everyone is. Everyone sends me these just glowing dissertation Sean Payton gives on bone knicks, and all I do is I just google news timeline this time seven years ago, six years ago, and five years ago, when I was subjected to in the same offseasons dissertations about how, hey, Steve Young, you know, he reminds me a lot of Taysom Hill, Taysom like that. And again, I don't think bo Nicks is Taysom Hill, but I think he's closer to Taysom Hill than the guy Sean Payton's trying to convince me he's close to, which is Drew Brees. I also have never seen a team that got went owen seven against the other AFC good teams last year, unless we're including the Chiefs backups, and then you can't even say they were peaking at the end of the year. They played Buffalo and got curb stumped. So Nick, how did they get to ten wins? Well, let's go through it just quickly. And again, I think the Brons defense should be really good. I am I nervous about the injury concerns for the two big pieces from San Francisco, of course, but the quarterbacks that this Denver Broncos team beat last year after having a great game against Baker were the following Aaron Rodgers Aidan O'Connell, whoever the hell was starting for the Saints last year. I don't it was a car He's not in football anymore, right, br it was it Bright the Panthers quarterback in Week eight?

00:28:35
Speaker 1: Bryce Broncos was rattler. I think on a primetime game.

00:28:38
Speaker 2: Actual, Oh, the Saints Saints was rattler.

00:28:41
Speaker 1: That's right.

00:28:41
Speaker 2: It wasn't corner. That is correct, Kirk Cousins right before they pulled the ripcord the Raiders again. I assume O'Connell the Brown starting quarterback in Week thirteen last year. Let's check and see who that stud was. It was jamis Uh, the Cults quarterback in week fifteen. Is he a starter anymore? No? I'm sorry. That was Anthony Richardson and then Chad Henny. So you beat you beat two guys who are currently starters, one of which is forty two now.

00:29:16
Speaker 1: And did you just say they played against Chad Henny?

00:29:19
Speaker 2: And everyone's like, all right, and I'm wrong. Chad Henny's not the backup anymore? Is Carson Wentz? It was Carson Wentz. I apologie like.

00:29:26
Speaker 1: I was, you know, I was. I was a lonely man once on Chad Henney Island.

00:29:30
Speaker 2: Hey man, he had one of the greatest, one of the great out of the Chief's history. Anything is possible to scramble on third and sixteen against the Browns in the playoffs, But and then I just the only thing Sean Payton has enjoyed more than cultivating friends in the media and talking up bo Nicks is reminding people how close he was to drafting Patrick Mahomes and telling Seth Wickersham about his his prietary algorithm of evaluating quarterbacks, which is just completion percentage minus bad plays. And so color me skeptical that the Broncos are a true contender. I will go under.

00:30:16
Speaker 1: I love all that, and they were very you know, I made a pretty long list. Broncos under nine and a half was on it, though the Swords a bottom, but it was on it. Yeah, part of it. Do I have the guts because I do like looking at offensive line plus defensive line and just like that. That's where you find a lot of underrated teams. It's why I'm gonna choose my next over I might as well just say it's a Jets. It's just gonna be an over going high. But that's a reason to like the Broncos, by the way, is that, man, their lines really do look pretty darn good. And that is Sean Payton's secret sauce, I think more than his algorithm. That is so funny. Yeah, I think he always has a good offensive line. He's hired good offensive line coaches. They've just they've just found a way to maximize that unit in a way very few teams have. So that makes me worried. But I am. I'm under on them too. I love that. All right, let's go to the Jets. I've been saying it all offseas I got to just like stick with what I actually feel. I thought the craziest thing when the when the totals still came when they came out was the gap between the Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets. I just I just don't get it, and I just think these teams are all closer than you'd expect. I think the Jets have a very good offensive line. I think they could have a pretty good defensive line. I like the changes in terms of Aaron Glenn becoming their head coach. I think Robert Sala was a little overrated. I know the defense played pretty well for him there but the talent on defense is still there in five and a half is so low in that division. You look at their schedule, the AFC schedules out of the division is ideal, and you get four games against Dolphins and the Patriots, which I think are winnable at least, you know, split those games for the Jets. I feel good about five and a half. I think it's one of the it's one of the dumbest things in sports. Is nothing harder to do, you know, to win a game in the NFL. It's it's actually not that hard to win about six games in the NFL. You don't have to be that good. You just need to get a good schedule and have, you know, some good vibes in the building and some talent, and they definitely have that. So I like the Jets to go like seven and ten. I feel good about over five and a halfs.

00:32:23
Speaker 2: So listen, here's what I like about the Jets chances of just having a normal, fine below average year, which is what you're describing. This is the first season that players and coaches on the Jets have been able to operate day to day with the media and then week to week without every single thing being a referendum on what about the quarterback? Because going from Donald to Zach to Aaron, every body was just n PC and the development of that guy's movie. And so I thought it was really smart of Aaron Glenn to go, like, not only move off Aaron, but to also pick as banal a quarterback as you could find in fields like listen, nobody's really going Nobody's like, oh man, is he the answer? He's it's not about n there.

00:33:27
Speaker 1: Oh really, I don't really know that. But there are fields fans out there there, yes.

00:33:32
Speaker 2: But still but but it's not everyone else can just go about their business and it's like he's building the team and then they'll address the quarterback, which is not a good way to win a championship, but it might be a good way to get things going. So I I'm fine with that. I I don't even remember where I had them. I also think the that it doesn't matter, so I do think though. My only concern is I do think that they're probably the last place team in that division. But now some would say the Dolphins the floor could fall out, which is fair. But yeah, I don't mind the I don't mind over five and a half like you.

00:34:14
Speaker 1: I can't do you know, actual bets like you. But whatever their playoff odds are, like, I would like the value on that. I don't think it's that crazy to imagine them as like the seven team you just talked about, you know, culture change. I think they're going to be a little more like you think the Raiders are going to be. Where just culture, which is really important. They have a clear like person in charge. Usually it's ownership. It gets messy. Douglas and Salah were they were kind of feckless. Like this is Aaron Glenn's organization. I mean, have you heard a word out of their GM? Do you even know who it is? Darren Mujie who has no presence whensoever either, And like it's clearly just a Glenn higher and it's all about Aaron Glenn. And I'm I'm kind of buying into the aeron I used to just make them fun.

00:34:55
Speaker 2: Can I do an? I can we have a quick sidebar conversation.

00:34:59
Speaker 1: I want to. I want to get to these picks, but yes, just very quick.

00:35:03
Speaker 2: If the Jets do make the playoffs, I think that would probably mean the Patriots don't. Yeah, And if the Jets make the playoffs and the Patriots don't. I just would like your great producer Eric to just cut together a few of your kind of almost just throw in asides over the summer about how obviously great Drake May is, like it's not even worth discussing like I have, you know, like the the and whether it was in your tiers list. When you argue with Sando, it's like it's just I think in a courtroom, if I were the other attorney, I would say, objection your honor. Fact's not yet in evidence. I like, and I like Drake May.

00:35:51
Speaker 1: I think that's fair. I had regrets, not regrets, but second thoughts after we did that, Kiv tears. It was like, am I putting the cart before the horse a little bit? Andre me, Well, I mean, if.

00:36:01
Speaker 2: They if they've been as third in the division this year, then I'm just saying we need to look at the cart and the horse together, all right. My next one, I'm gonna go with another under there's two I'm looking at, and so I'm gonna be strategic on which one I go with. I'm gonna go with one that I think you could take the Niners under ten and a half.

00:36:27
Speaker 1: Hmmm.

00:36:29
Speaker 2: So I this will be from a talent perspective, the worst defense they've had there since Shanahan first got there. Now, I think Sala will do a nice job with you know, taking over the coordinator spot. I don't doubt that in the least. However, I aside from Bosa Warner, it's a bunch of real question marks on the defensive side of the ball. I the the injuries at wide receiver at this point are almost cartoonish. And I now, some quarterbacks can take a receiving corps of Sky Moore and Marquez Valdez Scantling and win multiple Super Bowls, but rock Perty is not one of them, and so that worries me. Christian McCaffrey when he's out there is a top three back in the league, but the win he's out there part is concern. And like Trent Williams, they can't win without Trent Williams. And Trent Williams backup signed with Kansas City, so like that's you know, and he's the oldest tackle in the league. All of that plus Kyle not so subtly lowering the expectations for everyone, and all of that, the fact I couldn't I'm stunned at this number, that it's ten and a half, and what right? What everybody argues is the schedule, And my counter to that is simple, what if the Niners are a soft spot in some other team schedule? And so I just the fact that this team, in theory, could win the division, make the playoffs, and the under still hit all take the under ten and a half.

00:38:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is one. I don't know what happens for you because you know you're on three hours a day now and you got your YouTube show. So I mean, first of all, you're doing the nicest thing possible. We're not We've never even met in real life. This is only the second time you says. But the nicest thing you can do for a friend is you're giving me more airtime and a day that you're doing little hours and hours. But what happens when you just don't know, you don't have a take. That's where I'm at with this entire division, with the forty nine ers. I've gone back and forth in my mind all division. If I had to make one right now, I probably would go with you and under, but it wouldn't it certainly wouldn't make my top ten. And I won't pat myself on the back or feel bad about anything that happens in this division because I don't have a take. I really don't don't. I don't know, I don't know. I don't have a strong take on anything that could happen here. You could tell me anything, I wouldn't be surprised.

00:39:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's how I kind of feel about the Cardinals and Seahawks. Yes I do. I do feel strongly about the Rams that if Stafford's healthy, they're gonna be excellent. But if Stafford's healthy, part is such a you know, huge, you know, dark cloud hanging over all.

00:39:28
Speaker 1: Right, I will I will go next. Got your nine ers, You did not take one from me. I'm gonna go Cowboys over seven and a half. You're you're you're reacting like I took it from you, or that you think it's a dumb pick. I love this pick. I could have taken it even higher. They're they're in a division where I think the commanders are overrated. That that's one where I've seen enough of your social clips where I know we're on different sides of things there, and so I think the commanders are overrated Giants. We'll see I mean, they're fine. And man, they have Dak Prescott on their team, a quarterback that I absolutely trust, a lot of talent on that offensive line that's young. I am buying the propaganda that Brian Schottenheimer will be a better head coach than he was a coordinator. He's got a little bit of his dad. I think he's got that organization in terms of his coaching staff and the players kind of tuning out the noise as well as he as anyone possibly could. And ultimately, I think they still have the bones of a team that won twelve games, you know, three years in a row with a pretty mediocre head coach. I love their defensive line. I mean, I think it could be the best edge group in the league. Assuming Michaeh Parsons is going to be on the team. And I am assuming that. I know you talk about it every day and stuff, but it just history tells us he will be on that team. It would be a blow to my pick if he's not on the team. But it's not eight and a half. It's at seven and a half, and I feel great. I think they're gonna win ten games. I have them in the playoffs like the Cowboys, this year. Wow, probably should have taken them earlier. To be honest, No, I think.

00:41:04
Speaker 2: You didn't need to because I was gonna go under.

00:41:07
Speaker 1: Go for now, have a challenge you could take.

00:41:09
Speaker 2: Well, here's the problem we are. We're I'm working off Can I say the sports book that I got my numbers? Yes, okay, we have I don't know, and the I'm working off the DraftKings numbers. And so the Draft Kings total was at eight and a half with a lot of juice on the under, so you know what I mean. So that's why you st Yes, the real back in the day, some win totals landed on even numbers, you know what I mean. It was so the real Cowboys total, if it was ten years ago, would have been set at eight.

00:41:44
Speaker 1: If you wanna, if you wanna step up here, make it eight and we go on different sides. It's just a fun little challenge here. I'm good with that.

00:41:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, sure deal, that's fine, right, Yeah, So that it's so no action if they go eight and nine. I kind of screwed you if they go eight nine, because you would already land grabbed the seven and a half. No, I think this could be a year from hell. For them. I I'm very your I respect your football opinion so much that your opinion of their D line is making me reconsider my opinion of their D line because I look at the Cowboys as a team that with with Micah Parsons should have an okay defense, and without Micah Parsons might be one of the worst defenses in football. Now, it sounds like you feel very differently than me about that. And I also think the I think Micah going to get this second opinion on his back is uh not so subtle shot across the bow of we will miss games. Yeah, I agree, and so there's that. I also, I just don't see how they Dak's going to have to have a phenomenal season for them to win, and I don't know it. Like George Pickens is to me, I put him in the kind of the bucket of player, which is in leads my He's one of the reasons that in professional football, more than any other sport, I believe talent can be wildly overrated. Like I hear so much the guy's got so much talent, Like football is too hard and too brutal and too many other things that if talent's the only thing you can lead with that I don't necessarily trust you, And so the Schottenheimer piece concerns me. I just never like the Hey, if you didn't get that job, who else was going to give it to you? In the answer to shoot nobody, Like I gotta tell you I had that always.

00:43:58
Speaker 1: The Cowboys though, they're just they're just different. But what they're they're not in general is consistently bad. I mean, certainly in the dak or Tony Romo era, like give me the back to back lousy years out of the Cowboys, I hear all that. I think they are among the highest variance defenses in the league. I'm counting a lot on Matt Eberflus to like get that system and kind of put a top over it. By you know, I think it might be ugly early. They have a couple really talented cornerbacks and Travon Diggs and Chevon Ravel like that. We just don't know. Injury wise, they will be run on. Like in the interior, it does not look good. But that edge group, if if you just go through it. Sam Williams is really talented coming off in a cl mar marshawn neland Dante Fowler, Michah Parsons, Donovanezeraku five deep. That's as good as it. That's he was good last year. He was literally the Commander's probably second best passer. I'm just saying he's like a rotational guy. Okay that I don't know if that counts as one of your Yeah.

00:44:55
Speaker 2: You did Cowboys over I did Cowboys.

00:44:57
Speaker 1: So then I'm back. The one thing I'm rooting for now more than anything is the Cowboys not to land on eight. That'll just bother me so much. If you win because of that.

00:45:06
Speaker 2: No, I won't win because of that.

00:45:07
Speaker 1: It'd be a push, sure, but I mean, like the overall competition between okas, if somehow that push makes a difference, I'll vote Commanders under nine and a half. I'm not being strategic. Also, we only have like ten minutes left, so I should get the ones out that I want because I know you like the Commanders a lot this year. I think there's a lot of ways that this could go really wrong. Obviously, it's tough to bet against such a or pick because I don't bet against a quarterback this good in Jaden Daniels, but it is going to be his second year in the league, so it's not the longest track record of success a unique offense, and I just think the defense could be really poor, the skill position depth very poor, and I think there's just a lot of ways it could go wrong and they could be a losing team.

00:45:51
Speaker 2: So I'm probably not quite as high on the Commanders as you think. I'm sure what you saw.

00:45:55
Speaker 1: Well, I saw you had them ahead of the Eagles.

00:45:57
Speaker 2: Well, so, yeah, So I had the Commanders and the Eagles both eleven and six. And if the in my make believe standings in my predictions, am I going to actually figure out who would win the make believe tiebreaker? Or does tie go to more interesting? It went to more if I have him both eleven and six and Eagles fans hate me already, might as well be like, and you know what, when I've crunched the numbers, the Commander's baith on strength of scheduled tiebreaker or they're gonna win the division. And so my I have a bias against skinny football players, particularly the quarterback position. And because of that, I was a Jaden skeptic, and he.

00:46:36
Speaker 1: Was like very wrong on Lamar, you know the.

00:46:40
Speaker 2: I mean, I've been the most right person in sports media about Lamar Jackson in one day, people will admit it. And there's nothing wrong with being Aaron Judge man, all time great, get a statue one day, there's nothing wrong with it. Uh and the and Lamar's not skinny. You've seen Lamar's neck. It goes past his ears. I was worried about Jaden's ability to stay healthy, and last year I got to admit when he got obviously injuries. The worst thing you can do in sports takery is be like, I think the guy's super talented, but I'm worried he won't stay healthy because it's it's a bummer of a take, and if you are correct, you don't get to like be like told you like, there's never like a moment, keep it in your pocket. And but he did get hit last year. He did get the bruised ribs and it didn't matter like he had the brief moment where his play dipped a bit. He is super talented, and I love how they added to the offensive line, and I think that they're patchworking the defense. So I do like the commanders. I'm not a commander's going to the super Bowl guy, but I wouldn't have gone under all right, I'm gonna go. It's my turnout. I know.

00:47:59
Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised went with that so high. That was a spiteful just to get a saucy pick in there. Go ahead, let's let's go, We'll get.

00:48:06
Speaker 2: This is my uh, this is the last year I can ride with this guy in this team if they don't, if he doesn't come through for me, and I'm going with the Prince that was promised and the Jaguars over seven and a half.

00:48:24
Speaker 1: This kills me. This, This shows I shouldn't have taken Cowboys or commuted, because in my heart I believe that more than the picks I've already done. WI it was lower on the list. I'm looking at the stupid list. I'm with you.

00:48:36
Speaker 2: It's terrible move by you. Listen, man, I still believe in Trevor Lawrence. But man, he's got a validated and I don't like when people say he never has, like it's all based on college year two for him. He was good. The following year they started eight and three, and then he got maimed in that Monday night football game. They didn't have a cart to take him off the field. And poor guy hasn't been the same ever since. Hopefully he is this year. You are, I think correctly super high on Travis Hunter. I think for Trevor's case, it's really nice that he seems to be they're gonna lean more offense than defense with him. Brian Thomas Junior is excellent, and it seemed like they were just done with the Doug Peterson experience, and so I think that we talked about how the Colts and the weakness there. I think in that division, could they win it? Sure would I be I'd be devastated if they don't get to eight wins. I think they can get to ten. So I will go over Jacksonville.

00:49:46
Speaker 1: I love that sometimes you don't really know what your heart truly feels until you're just like doing these shows. And truly I think I would have the Jaguars in my top five or so I'm in on this.

00:49:56
Speaker 2: So I got one of your best bets and you got one of mine. Yeah, because you've got Colts under and I got jackson And.

00:50:02
Speaker 1: With that in mind, I'm going against what I had written down and I'm taking Saints under five and a half before anyone else does, just in case I just feel like, man if they got to five wins, I would say, bravo, Kellen Moore. I just good job. I just think this team stinks. I think they could be two and fifteen. I went to camp and I was actually like, man, their defense is kind of spicy, and isn't that what you're You're so surprised by that?

00:50:28
Speaker 2: No, well, I just I just think soft spot in your heart for Louisiana and for New Orleans.

00:50:35
Speaker 1: And here's the thing though, Saints fans, they don't want this, but they kind of want this. So I think if they get along the journey, I won't even feel bad rudy against them because hashtag arch my back. They want the scenario where they're just they're getting in position for Archie Manning, who you know they believe will only come out in the draft if the Saints have the one pick, which is probably wishful thinking and stupid, but.

00:51:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say, I would say, is it not on the board that the opposite's true? The only way he doesn't come out, I'm gonna go Bengals under nine and a half bolt on.

00:51:14
Speaker 1: My very long list. I agree, but wouldn't have been something I would have picked.

00:51:18
Speaker 2: I just I don't understand why it's going to be different than last year, and the answer can be, well, the defense won't be quite as bad and the offense probably won't be quite as good. I think the Bengals offensive line is one of the more underdiscussed big question marks of the season. I think that the defense is. I listen as a Chiefs fan, I'm glad they got rid of Louis and Arumo. Like he I understand that he struggled there last year. He sure seemed in the playoffs to give Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen trouble. Which if I'm the Bengals, that's actually all I want for my decoordinator. You can do what the Bills do, which is have a defensive coordinators that are unbelievable throughout the regular season and then can't stop a good quarterback in the playoffs or with the Bengals head which is the opposite. And so I also fundamentally disagree with how they have decided to build this team, and I think that they are I think that we are staring at a again. I understand he's arguably the greatest coach of all time, but so not to disrespect Sean Payton's tenure with the Saints, but a similar run of when they breeze had three consecutive years where he averaged five thousand yards passing and they went seven to nine every single year. And I think that unlike Sean, I don't think Zach Taylor survives it. I think they missed the playoffs again, and I think Zach Taylor's fired.

00:52:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm torn on this one, but ultimately I agree. It's not that different than my colts pick larger than just the players involved. It's the organization, it's the structure of it all that just that's gonna sink them. Ultimately, I agree. All right, I want to have an odd number. We can't. We can't be tied. So let's go. I'll do two more, you go one more, and then that'll put us at nine inch.

00:53:18
Speaker 2: Can I just ask a quick question? Yeah, I know that math is not a strong suit of this show. How on earth does whether we each have eight, nine or ten impact whether or not we tie?

00:53:33
Speaker 1: Well, because if we each that's not how I'm an idiot.

00:53:37
Speaker 2: Well you know, why don't we both?

00:53:42
Speaker 1: I was thinking you're going against each other. We got a lot of shows, you know. I get a lot of shows.

00:53:51
Speaker 2: Listen, man, why don't you do an eighth and then we will have done sixteen.

00:53:56
Speaker 1: That's happened. That's that's perfect.

00:54:00
Speaker 2: Man.

00:54:00
Speaker 1: This is tough, and I'll just give some freebies to the people out there. The ones I'm considering. The Dolphins under eight and a half feels like it's too obvious for everyone, and yet I do like it. The Giants over five and a half takes the little guts, but I do believe in it. I think they're going to be better than people think. The Ravens over eleven and a half doesn't take a lot of guts, but I do think they'll they'll get there. But I think, just for consistency all three years on these over unders, I have taken the Bears under and you know, and this is only going you know, we only had three or four picks each year, and they were my first pick, I think, or like last year.

00:54:39
Speaker 2: Last year, you were correct. I know nobody was more every year I've been correct.

00:54:43
Speaker 1: They've been under every year.

00:54:44
Speaker 2: Nobody was more wrong about the Bears in the national media than me last year, and you were about as right as anybody.

00:54:51
Speaker 1: So ty Ty, and you said in your case Ty goes to, what's the sauce of your pick? To me? The Bear just consistency for the sake of the show, going Bears under for the fourth straight year, even though I do think they will be better eight and a half in that division where I like the Vikings and the Lions quite a bit. I think he'll have done a fine job, Ben Johnson. If they win seven or eight games. They're not as talented. I don't think as people think, certainly on defense, and so I'll go under Bears.

00:55:17
Speaker 2: Okay, that's perfect. I would have got over, So that's perfect. We did it.

00:55:22
Speaker 1: The only man who could just slide in an amazing joke about you know, the forty nine Ers aren't the type of team that could win with sky Moore and mvs at wide receiver and just just keep on going like I hope that was off the dome. One of the most talented guys in the business. Nick Right.

00:55:40
Speaker 2: Appreciate you, Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Loved the show. The only thing I don't like about coming on it is it takes now tomorrow. I got nothing to listen to. See you later.

00:55:49
Speaker 1: Greg, Thanks all right, we will see you. Nick Wright and saying goodbye as we hit the music and tell you a little bit about what's coming up later this week Forties and free Agents and FRI You'll be in your feed. Patrick Jordan and I will be over the weekend Our Reasons for Joy in twenty twenty five, and then a couple of season preview episodes with Daniel Jeremiah. Then we are on to our Week one schedule. The over Unders are out. Football is back.