Trump Posts Bond, June Rate-Cut Odds Fall

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Good morning, I'm Nathan 0:00:10.640 --> 0:00:13.600 Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:14.440 following today. 0:00:14.960 --> 0:00:17.960 Karen, we begin with the latest developments in Donald Trump's 0:00:18.040 --> 0:00:21.400 legal battles. Former president has followed through on posting a 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:23.960 one hundred and seventy five million dollar bond in his 0:00:24.000 --> 0:00:26.960 New York civil fraud case. That means he will avoid 0:00:27.000 --> 0:00:29.880 having his assets seized while he appeals the four hundred 0:00:29.880 --> 0:00:32.800 and fifty four million dollar judgment against him. That bond 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:36.640 was arranged by California based Night Specialty Insurance, a company 0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:39.239 best known for subprime auto loans, which is run by 0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:43.479 billionaire Trump supporter Don Hankey. Meanwhile, the former president is 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:46.520 coming under new restrictions ahead of his hush money trial 0:00:46.560 --> 0:00:49.159 in New York. The judge in that case has expanded 0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:52.319 a gag order after Trump attacked both him and his 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:55.920 daughter on social media. Lourie Levinson is a former federal 0:00:55.960 --> 0:00:58.520 prosecutor now a professor at Loyola Law School. 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:02.560 Whether he wants who or not, Donald Trump has to 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:07.000 tone it down because by attacking the judge's daughter, by 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:10.920 attacking members of the district attorney's office, Trump has made 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:14.440 it increasingly difficult for the judge to hold a fair trial. 0:01:14.920 --> 0:01:18.240 Loyal law professor Lourie Levinson says the expanded gag order 0:01:18.319 --> 0:01:21.320 still allows Trump to make comments about Manhattan District Attorney 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:24.959 Alvin Bragg. The hush money trial begins April fifteenth. 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:27.960 Well, Nathan, we have another note on Donald Trump. His 0:01:28.040 --> 0:01:31.279 net worth on paper tumbled a billion dollars as shares 0:01:31.319 --> 0:01:34.040 of as social media business plunge. Do we get details 0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:35.560 from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett. 0:01:35.800 --> 0:01:39.000 That was after the company disclosed that had lost more 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:43.000 than fifty eight million dollars in twenty twenty three as 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:47.120 revenue for the former president's Truth social platform trickled in. 0:01:47.560 --> 0:01:51.440 Trump Media and Technology Group stockfell twenty one percent to 0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:54.840 forty eight sixty six, a share that's below the forty 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:58.000 nine to ninety five level where the blank check vehicle 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:01.280 it merged with was trading a week again go According 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:04.680 to filings with the SEC, Trump owns fifty seven percent 0:02:04.720 --> 0:02:07.720 of the company, with his stake now worth three point 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:11.680 seven six billion dollars on paper in New York. Charlie 0:02:11.720 --> 0:02:13.200 Pellett Bloomberg. 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:15.640 Radio, All right, Charlie, thanks in checking shares of Trumpet 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:18.600 Media and Technology Group this morning, they're down another four 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:19.560 point three percent. 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:22.120 And now to the latest developments in the Middle East. 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:25.240 Care in a shadow war between Israel and Iran has 0:02:25.360 --> 0:02:29.000 ebbed and flowed in recent years, but a reported airstrike 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:32.760 in Syria may be ratcheting up tensions. Details from Bloomberg 0:02:32.840 --> 0:02:34.840 Zamy Morris in Washington. 0:02:34.560 --> 0:02:37.920 Iranian and Syrian state media claim inn Israeli airstrike on 0:02:37.960 --> 0:02:41.480 Iran's embassy compound in Syria killed a number of people, 0:02:41.480 --> 0:02:46.200 including a top military commander mohammedresa Zahedi, a high ranking 0:02:46.240 --> 0:02:50.040 Iranian general linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, plus 0:02:50.040 --> 0:02:53.680 another general and at least five officers. Iran's bign minister 0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:56.680 says Israel should be held accountable for the repercussions of 0:02:56.720 --> 0:02:59.480 the attack. The country's envoy to Syria vowed a quote 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:04.440 decile response. Israeli officials did not confirm the strike. In Washington, 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:06.000 Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio. 0:03:06.040 --> 0:03:08.240 All right, Amy, thank you. Meanwhile, the White House is 0:03:08.240 --> 0:03:11.639 calling for an investigation into an Israeli airstrike in Gaza 0:03:11.680 --> 0:03:14.720 that caught a well known aid organization in the crossfire. 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:18.359 The Washington based World Central Kitchen says seven of its 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:21.240 staff were killed in the attack, including an American with 0:03:21.400 --> 0:03:26.200 dual Canadian citizenship. The group, founded by celebrity chef Jose Andres, 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:28.919 delivered the first shipment of aid by SA into northern 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:32.560 Gaza last month. It's helped oversee construction of a peer 0:03:32.639 --> 0:03:35.560 to bring more meals into the region. The Israeli military 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:38.040 says it's conducting a review of the incident at the 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:39.320 highest levels. 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:41.840 Turned out to the Economy Karen, the odds of a 0:03:42.000 --> 0:03:45.360 rate cut in June are deteriorating, and we get the 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:47.160 details from Bloomberg's John Tucker. 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:50.440 John and Nathan Trader's recalibrating their bets on the federal 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:53.360 reserves easing briefly setting the ons of a first move 0:03:53.400 --> 0:03:57.680 in June below fifty percent. This comes as ism manufacturing 0:03:57.800 --> 0:04:01.520 was stronger than expected towards the slocks. Chief economist at 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:02.960 apollel Management. 0:04:02.600 --> 0:04:05.000 We have suddenly expansion for the first time since twenty 0:04:05.040 --> 0:04:08.400 twenty two. We also seen suddenly that price is paid 0:04:08.400 --> 0:04:10.520 in im also beginning to accelerate. 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:13.360 The number of FED rate cuts priced in the swamps 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:16.560 contracts for this year dropped a fewer than sixty five 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:20.600 basis points. That's less than FED policy makers themselves of forecast. 0:04:21.080 --> 0:04:24.039 Some market watchers say the pendulum of centiment in US 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:28.000 rates may be shifting toward the hawkish direction. John Tucker, 0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:29.279 Bloomberg Radio. 0:04:29.279 --> 0:04:31.840 All right, John, thanks we the strong factory data helps 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:34.360 send both stocks and bonds lower on the first day 0:04:34.360 --> 0:04:37.440 of the second quarter. OURBC Capital Markets head of US 0:04:37.520 --> 0:04:40.800 equity strategy, Lori Calvacina, expects to see money moving to 0:04:40.880 --> 0:04:44.839 other parts of the markets besides the so called Magnificent 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:45.839 seven stalks. 0:04:46.240 --> 0:04:48.359 I think we're due for one big catch up trade 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:50.800 in the market from you know, kind of everything outside 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:53.200 of the MAG seven, whether it's small cap, whether it's 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:55.599 you know, kind of the non tech sectors. If you 0:04:55.600 --> 0:04:58.279 look at the pe in the market x the MAG seven, 0:04:58.279 --> 0:05:01.120 it's trading around sixteen times. The MAG seven's been trading 0:05:01.160 --> 0:05:03.479 between twenty seven and twenty eight times on a forward 0:05:03.520 --> 0:05:06.960 pe and kind of a round past peak. So I 0:05:06.960 --> 0:05:08.920 think there's room for the rest of the market to 0:05:09.000 --> 0:05:10.599 kind of catch up. I'm not saying we have to 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:12.839 get quite that over valued, but there's room for the 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:14.080 rest of the market to make a move. 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:17.520 Capital Markets Lori Calvsina boosted her year end s and 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:20.520 P five hundred price target to fifty three hundred. 0:05:20.320 --> 0:05:23.160 And in Europe, Karen, UBS is updating its investors on 0:05:23.240 --> 0:05:26.039 when it'll begin at stock buyback program. Let's go to 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:29.040 London and get the details from Bloomberg's Ewan Pots. 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:32.240 Ewan, Nathan and Karen. The bank buy back story rolls on. 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:35.040 UBS says it will purchase up to two billion dollars 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.600 if its shares over the next two years, including one 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:41.160 billion dollars this year. The announcement gives shareholders in Switzerland's 0:05:41.160 --> 0:05:44.080 biggest bank greater visibility on returns as it completes the 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:47.599 integration of Credits Suisse, UBS saying it's ambition is for 0:05:47.600 --> 0:05:51.680 share buybacks to exceed pre acquisition levels by twenty twenty six. 0:05:51.960 --> 0:05:53.720 In London, I'm your Pots Boomberg. 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:55.479 Radio, all right you and thanks what We're keeping your 0:05:55.560 --> 0:05:58.599 eye on Tesla shares. Later today, the company is expected 0:05:58.600 --> 0:06:02.080 to report global first order delivery and production numbers and 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:05.440 a lets say demand for electric vehicles and elevated interest 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:07.880 rates are taking a toll on sales. We gin more 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:10.560 from Bloomberg Technology host ed Ludlow. 0:06:10.480 --> 0:06:13.400 So Tesla's course lyad deliveries have Wall Street worried brace 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:16.920 because the first quarter numbers are coming the expectation four 0:06:17.040 --> 0:06:19.960 hundred and fifty seven thousand odd sequential decline. But the 0:06:20.040 --> 0:06:22.640 key thing does Tesla beat its performance from the same 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:26.640 period a year ago, higher rates, government policy, a tepid 0:06:26.640 --> 0:06:29.680 consumer and elon with a new policy that might have 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:32.960 upset some people in the sprint finish to the first quarter, 0:06:33.400 --> 0:06:35.040 Ed Ludlow Bloomberg Radio. 0:06:34.920 --> 0:06:37.239 All right ed thanks to one other corporate note. This morning, 0:06:37.240 --> 0:06:39.080 with more than half of the vote's cast, the Wall 0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:41.880 Street Journal is reporting Disney has pulled ahead in its 0:06:41.920 --> 0:06:45.800 proxy battle against Nelson Peltz's Try and Partners. The paper 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:48.000 says Black Rock and t row Price are among the 0:06:48.040 --> 0:06:51.800 major investors backing Disney. The journal says investors are still 0:06:51.839 --> 0:06:55.320 casting votes and can change them through the annual meeting tomorrow. 0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:01.240 Orry Nathan, thanks and welcome back. It's time now for 0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:03.040 a look at some of the other stories making news 0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:04.960 in New York and around the world, and for that 0:07:05.080 --> 0:07:07.240 we're joined now by Bloombergy's Michael Barr. 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:09.840 Michael, good morning, Good morning, Karen, The owner of the 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:12.880 ship that rammed into a bridge in Baltimore last week, 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:16.480 killing six workers. Is seeking to limit its liability to 0:07:16.560 --> 0:07:20.160 about forty three point seven million dollars. Legal experts say 0:07:20.280 --> 0:07:23.520 the company Grace Ocean could face hundreds of millions of 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:27.679 dollars in damage claims. Yesterday, it filed a petition jointly 0:07:27.760 --> 0:07:32.200 with Synergy Marine, which was operating the Singapore flagged cargo 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:35.400 ship Dolly. They claimed the collapse that the Francis Scott 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:39.160 Key Bridge was not due to any fault, neglect, or 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:42.240 want of care of the companies, and that they shouldn't 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:44.920 be held liable for any loss or damage from the disaster. 0:07:45.400 --> 0:07:50.320 Memhile Maryland officials, including Governor Wes Moore, urge patients as 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:54.000 the cleanup gets underway, saying the safety of the rescuers 0:07:54.000 --> 0:07:57.760 and salvage crew will be top priority during the precarious 0:07:57.800 --> 0:07:58.760 operation and. 0:07:58.800 --> 0:08:03.000 My directive to complete this mission with no injuries and 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:03.920 no casualties. 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:06.400 We've already lost six Marylanders to this crisis. 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:07.920 I refuse to lose any more. 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:11.080 Governor Morris says a temporary channel on the northeast side 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:14.080 of the collapse opened yesterday and will help to get 0:08:14.080 --> 0:08:18.160 more vessels around the site. Of the collapse. In two rulings, 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:21.520 Florida Supreme Court decided that the state's fifteen week abortion 0:08:21.640 --> 0:08:25.800 ban is constitutional, which paves the way for a six 0:08:25.920 --> 0:08:29.480 week band to take effect soon. The state Supreme Court 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:32.360 also ruled voters in Florida will be heading to the 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:35.559 polls later this year to decide what is the future 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:38.480 of abortion in the state. Critics say that the varting 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:40.880 in the November measure is too vague. 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:44.080 It doesn't define what viability is. It doesn't define what 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:45.160 a healthcare worker is. 0:08:45.400 --> 0:08:49.280 However, supporters of the ballot measure, like Ana Hotcomer with 0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:52.560 the Florida Women's Freedom Coalition, disagrees with critics. 0:08:52.960 --> 0:08:54.040 Floridians are smart. 0:08:54.240 --> 0:08:58.160 They understand what we want. They understand what the language says. 0:08:58.440 --> 0:09:01.560 The November ballot would allow Florida voters to decide whether 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:04.680 they think that abortion should be protected in the state's 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:08.640 constitution and government interference should be limited. It's already been 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:13.120 decided between Joe Bush, Joe Biden, and former President Donald Trump, 0:09:13.200 --> 0:09:17.040 but it's primary day in New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:22.080 and Wisconsin. Mississippi is holding a Republican runoff election to 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:26.760 see who will challenge sixteen term Democratic incumbent Benny Thompson. 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:30.000 Mosques in New York City are struggling to house and 0:09:30.000 --> 0:09:34.439 feed migrants as the country's latest immigration surge becomes increasingly 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:38.680 more African and Muslim. Leaders of a mosqin Harlem say 0:09:38.720 --> 0:09:41.960 their congregation is spending hundreds of dollars a night to 0:09:42.080 --> 0:09:46.920 host iftar, the traditional end of fasting during Ramadan. Global 0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:49.520 News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:52.040 it with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael Barr, and 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:53.280 this is Bloomberg Karen. 0:09:53.480 --> 0:10:00.959 Sorry, Michael Barr, thank you. Time out the Bloombergy Sports 0:10:01.040 --> 0:10:03.959 Update with John Stashaur. John, Good morning, Good morning care. 0:10:04.080 --> 0:10:07.160 The long range shooting and the playmaking ability of Caitly 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:09.800 and Clark has grabbed the attention to the nation and 0:10:09.880 --> 0:10:12.880 her Iowa career not over yet. Clark scored forty one 0:10:12.920 --> 0:10:16.280 points with nine threes. She had twelve assists. Iowa beat 0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:18.959 LSU ninety four to eighty seven, avenging their loss to 0:10:19.000 --> 0:10:21.800 the Tigers in last year's championship game. Now heading to 0:10:21.880 --> 0:10:25.079 the women's Final four in Cleveland were on Friday, Iowa 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:27.440 will take on yukon The Huskies have a start of 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:30.080 their own, Page Beckers and an eighty to seventy three 0:10:30.080 --> 0:10:32.240 win over USC had twenty eight points. This will be 0:10:32.320 --> 0:10:35.360 Yukon's twenty third Final four. They've gone to fifteen to 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:38.640 the last sixteen. Both Yukon and NC State have their 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:41.800 men's and women's teams heading to the Final four. The 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:43.679 Yankees are five and oh. Last time that happened was 0:10:43.760 --> 0:10:45.960 nineteen ninety two, which was actually the last Yankee team 0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:48.520 to finish under five hundred. Yanks won five to two 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:50.959 at Arizona. Luis Heel in the rotation due to the 0:10:51.000 --> 0:10:53.600 Garrett Cole injury, pitched into the fifth inning, allowed only 0:10:53.640 --> 0:10:55.720 one hit. The Mets are zero and four. At City Field, 0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:58.319 they got great pitching for nine innings and lost to 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:02.680 Detroit five to nothing. Meanwhile, in Houston to two, De 0:11:02.679 --> 0:11:06.560 Guerrero prow ball tap Loco lets it go by Dubon 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:08.679 Fields throws the first. 0:11:08.360 --> 0:11:13.640 End time hoo Head hold down Blackco. 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:17.200 Seiderds the first to chop it too. 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:20.360 His arms and the rest of his teammates come out 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:20.960 to mabo. 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:24.360 I'm abmb just the eighth Big League starver on ol Blanco, 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:27.040 and he threw the seventeenth no hitter in Astro's history. 0:11:27.040 --> 0:11:29.400 At the Garden, Rangers lost to Pittsburgh five to two, 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:31.520 and in a five game win streak, just the Rangers 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:34.240 second lost the past month. Islanders in Philadelphia gave up 0:11:34.240 --> 0:11:36.559 the time goal with ten seconds left, but one four 0:11:36.559 --> 0:11:38.559 to three and a brock Nelson goaling over time his 0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:41.600 thirtieth NETS lost in Indiana one twenty three to one. 0:11:41.679 --> 0:11:44.079 Eleven Pacers scored forty three in the first quarter. The 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:47.640 Celtics fifty ninth win one eighteen one to fourteen Nets. Charlotte, 0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:49.840 johnh DASHEDWIAR Bloomberg Sports Karen. 0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:52.839 Nathan all right, John, thank you, and futures now little 0:11:52.960 --> 0:11:56.280 change SNP at NASDAG Futures anyway down. Futures down three 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:59.319 tentsive uppercent, the ten year treasury yield four point three 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:03.040 one per nimex screwed oil up one point six percent 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:05.880 at eighty five dollars seven cents a barrel. 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:12.320 Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, 0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:15.360 and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:16.640 Bloomberg Business app. 0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:21.240 This is Bloomberg Daybreak, Good morning of Nathan Hager, let's 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:24.040 get a little bit more on what's happening in this market, 0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:26.480 the slight pullback in futures in this surge that we're 0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:29.920 seeing in commodities this morning, with bond traders pushing back 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:32.000 their bets on a first rate cut move from the 0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:36.280 Federal Reserve, following a gauge of manufacturing activity in the 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:40.480 US moving into expansion territory for the first time in 0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:43.079 nearly a year and a half. For more on this, 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:46.920 we're joined by Bloomberg's Kritty Gupta. So, Critty, we have 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:50.800 seen so much data over the last several months showing 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:55.720 continued strength in this economy. Now this surprise ism manufacturing 0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:59.360 data showing expansion for the first time since September twenty 0:12:59.440 --> 0:13:01.760 twenty two, really does seem to be feeding into this 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:04.559 narrative that the Fed really doesn't need to be in 0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:05.560 a rush to cut rates. 0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:09.080 Yeah, it's an interesting one because for so long that's 0:13:09.120 --> 0:13:11.760 what the exactly the markets are are banking upon, and 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:14.640 it's been the story of consumer resilience, as you've pointed out. 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:17.400 But Nathan, you know as well as anybody that not 0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:19.520 all inflation is created equal, And I think what was 0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:23.000 so striking about this ISM data in particular, is that 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.959 off the back of it, you saw anywhere from ten 0:13:26.040 --> 0:13:28.520 to fourteen basis points of moves in the treasury market 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:31.640 across the curve off of just an ISM report. And 0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:34.280 the reason I kind of put emphasis on that is 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:37.800 because you traditionally don't see that kind of reaction and 0:13:37.880 --> 0:13:41.520 sustained reaction throughout the trading day off of just one report, 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:46.440 and especially the ISM of all places, specifically because manufacturing 0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:50.760 makes up only a fraction of the US economy relative 0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:53.080 to the services data, so you see more sustained moves 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:56.400 off services data rather than manufacturing. So this was interesting, 0:13:56.480 --> 0:13:59.280 but it comes in tandem with, as you say, this 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:03.720 building narrative CPI, the PCE numbers, the labor numbers as well, 0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:06.480 And I think what's important about the ISM data and 0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:09.800 the way it's actually calculated is that it is more 0:14:10.080 --> 0:14:15.200 sensitive to factory outputs, to new orders, to wage stories, 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:17.880 especially in parts of America that have more of an 0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:21.000 industrial focus on that as well. All of that are 0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:23.720 things that are in line with that get factored into 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:27.000 the PPI numbers and the PCE deflator numbers. Essentially the 0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:30.200 pieces of data that the FED pays more attention to 0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:33.240 gend just the headline CPI, and that's kind of the 0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:36.320 building blocks that are taking place at the moment when 0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:37.320 factoring in this data. 0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:40.360 It was interesting, though, wasn't it to see this data 0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:43.280 come out this surprise on the manufacturing side. When we 0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:46.600 did get that PCE data on Friday that we heard 0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:49.120 from FED Chairman Jerome Powell saying that it came in 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:54.280 basically in line with their expectations even with goods inflation 0:14:54.440 --> 0:14:58.000 in that PCE data is showing a little bit more 0:14:58.560 --> 0:14:59.880 stickiness this time around. 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:02.440 Yeah, and I think that's the concern here, right, And 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:05.800 you heard that Withchair Powell in some of his commentary there. 0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:07.560 He said that even though the pc numbers came in, 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:10.960 you know on par we have to be He issued 0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:12.080 a lot of caution. He said, we have to be 0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:14.680 careful about the rate cut story. As if it's a surprise, 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:17.640 they wouldn't be careful, but they really risk this kind 0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:19.520 of spiral that if you go with one cut, how 0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:22.400 many more cuts follow. You can't have just one move 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:25.120 and then not touch anything. It's kind of the start 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:27.120 of a longer program, or at least that's the expectation 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:30.640 of economists and markets, and that's that first move that 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:33.240 they want to get right. The goods piece of it 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:35.560 is really important because in twenty twenty one, we're kind 0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:37.720 of going through our inflation saga. Over the last couple 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:41.160 of years, post COVID, post pandemic, the reopening trade, so 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:44.280 much of the supply chain hiccups, et cetera. Were cost driven. 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:46.920 It was commodity prices, oil prices hitting one hundred dollars 0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:50.560 a barrel and more. It was the grain story coming 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:53.960 out of Ukraine and the war there. It was gold 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:57.120 prices and raw materials becoming more expensive with this move 0:15:57.200 --> 0:16:00.160 in evs and chips. Basically the tip big take, as 0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:04.800 this was commodity driven inflation that ended up in shortages 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:07.800 around the world and therefore supply chain snags. The inflation 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:11.240 story right now is service is driven. It's wages driven. 0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:14.480 Everybody wants a little bit more money in their paycheck 0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:16.920 in line with the inflationary pressures that they've been dealing 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:18.840 with with prices that have been and costs that have 0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:22.600 been passed on to the consumer by major corporations around 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:27.040 the world. The concern around a reacceleration is more goods 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:30.040 driven and commodity driven this time around, and that's arguably, 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:32.320 to your point, more sticky and they'refore more dangerous. 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:34.680 All right, Bloomberg's Critti Gupta with a look at some 0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:35.960 of the latest economic data. 0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:36.280 Credit. 0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:36.600 Thank you. 0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:41.600 This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:45.200 the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:48.240 Look for us on your podcast feed at six am 0:16:48.360 --> 0:16:52.000 Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you 0:16:52.120 --> 0:16:53.080 get your podcasts. 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:56.080 You can also listen live each morning starting at five 0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:58.720 am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:01.560 in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, 0:17:01.720 --> 0:17:04.840 Bloomberg one oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg nine 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:06.320 sixty in San Francisco. 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:09.880 Our flagship New York station is also available on your 0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:15.320 Amazon Alexa devices. 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