396: Mailbag 7/31/20

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Round Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha Ja Ja Zacher reson what's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharice and the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com. And this is episode three hundred and ninety six of the Late Round podcast when many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. For years, Number Fire's premium subscription services provided users with expert analysis, survivor poll tools, and most importantly, the Fantasy football Draft Kit, and it was all for up to forty nine nine nine a month. Now, as a way of saying thanks to the community for years of support, Number fire is rolling out a new premium package for just nine to ninety nine a month that will provide you with all of the sports betting and daily fantasy tools that you need year round. And the best part is that expert analysis, those survivor tools, and yes, even the draftkit are now free. And that includes rankings from yours truly. So if you're curious where I've got Clyde Edwards Layer ranked now that Damian Williams opted out for the season, check out the Number five Draft Kit and then click expert rankings. Now, let's get to this week's mailbag questions. The first question this week is from at Danger Risk ninety one. Hi JJ, would you please rationalize the grand canyon between Alan Robinson's and Keenan Allen's rankings. It's not based on last year's targets, receptions, touchdowns, yards per reception, or red zone usage. It's not based on quarterback quality, projected win, total team passing plays per game, or total plays per game. Not based on offensive scheme, AJPEX, new influx of competition, or production premium. Seems to be based solely on narratives and feely feels. Thanks. Now, I don't know if it's just narrative based. All of your points are very fair when you're looking at what they did last year, but plenty of things changed for both offenses, especially for the Chargers. The reason there's a gap, and sure, maybe that gap shouldn't be as large as it is, but the reason that there's a gap between Robinson and Allen is because Robinson has proven to produce regardless of what's going on around him, when we just don't know that with Keenan Allen, he's very good and we should expect him to post wide receiver two type numbers. But we can't just brush off Philip Rivers leaving like it's nothing. Because all of those numbers that you cited, the receptions, the touchdowns, the targets, those happened with Philip Rivers. The Chargers could very easily run a more conservative offense this year. Keenan Allen could very easily see his twenty six percent target share drop. So there's a confidence that you have with Robinson that you might not have with Keenan Allen. My projections have the two of them about eighteen points off, so it's not amazingly significant, but I do like Robinson better. There are just some question marks around Allen's situation that I don't think is being captured completely with this question and the way it's being phrased. But it's the right question to ask, and I think it's a very very fair one. This has questions from AT's underscore FFNFL. In the third and fourth round half PPR re draft, after picking Hill and Adams, which two running backs would you draft? Gurley Fournette, James Connor, Le'veonbelle, Chris Carson or Jonathan Taylor. I feel like I'm backed into a corner with this. Thank you JJ. So this is generally why I'm not big on skipping the running back position in the first two rounds. Not only are their question marks with each of those guys that you just listed, but it goes back to the league winner episode that I did earlier in the offseason. I ended up defining league winning running backs as backs that ranked in the top ten in a given season, since that's where we historically have seen a drop off in overall fantasy production. Since twenty eleven, we've had just a ten percent hit rate in the fourth round in getting league winning running backs. Ten percent of fourth round running backs in twelve team leagues ended as top ten options. That's actually lower than the fifth and the sixth round. The RB two range has historically been very bad. Since twenty eleven, we've had one hundred and eight different RB twos get drafted or RB thirteen to twenty fours. That's nine seasons and twelve running backs in that range per season, so twelve times nine is one hundred and eight. Of those one hundred and eight, only sixteen of them, so less than fifteen percent of them ended up finishing as top ten options at the running back position that season, and eleven percent of them ranked higher than tenth, while only two point eight percent of them finishes top five options. It's not the range that you want your RB one to come from. But of those players, I think that Connor has the most intrigue in upside, but I've got him in a tier with Carson and Gurley. I think you can make an argument for Fournette, but I'm just worried about his overall situation and what he may do as a pass catcher this year. I don't love Le'Veon Bell despite the volume coming his way either, and he's got a really, really tough start to a season. And Jonathan Taylor is just flat out risky considering the committee that they'll likely start the season with and the lack of reps that he's gonna see before starting the season. So I hope that helps this last question from at TFC NFL. Why is everyone so down on Jack Doyle. He's a good football player. No Ebron Philip Rivers is there. We know he loves his tight ends, a lack of pass catchers and the coaching staff throws the tight ends above the league average. What have we seen from Burton that has us off of Jack Doyle. What am I missing? So with tight ends, and this goes for any onesie positions, So like quarterbacks where you're just starting one of them in your lineup, you have to ask yourself, what's this player's true path to being a difference maker. When you're getting a late round tight end, you want someone with a real path of being an every week starter. Doyle is someone who can easily meet ADP and meet expectation. I have him projected for seventy targets that should get him to where his ADP is, which is tight end eighteen. But look at who's being drafted around him. According to Best Ball ten's ADP over the last month, TJ. Howkinson is going right before Jack Doyle, Blake Jarwin and I and Thomas are right below him. Even Chris Herndon is three spots below and I like Chris Herndon a little bit more, and my guy IRV Smith is five spots below him. I would rather have the upside with IRV Smith than Jack Doyle. So it's totally reasonable to see Doyle's ADP where it is. Given he's not a super athletic tight end. He's played seven years in the league already he hasn't scored more than five times in a single season, and his career high end yards is a nice six hundred and ninety, but that came during a season where he saw one hundred and eight targets. I mean, as a player, there's nothing special about Jack Doyle. He's definitely serviceable, and he can be a tight end two this year, and if he stays healthy year, maybe he's a low end tight end one. But there are so many potential breakout tight ends that are young and have great athleticism, which are two things that I found are very important for breakout tight ends. And as a result of that, actively targeting Jack Doyle doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. We've already seen his ceiling I'm drafting tight ends to be potential top five players at the position. Jack Doyle is a floor play, not a ceiling play. This last question says, I understand why stacking is done in Best Ball and daily Fantasy for the boom potential, but is it wise in season long or dynasty. So I get this question all the time. I just hadn't done an in depth study on it. But fortunately my good friend Mike Leoni from Established to the Run did. What he found is that it is an advantageous strategy, especially in leagues where the payout structure is heavily skewed to the top, which isn't surprising. But what Leoni found that was interesting and not super surprising but still interesting, is that when quarterbacks far outplay their ADP, those quarterbacks pass catchers do too, So it's a higher risk strategy, but you can think of it as if your goal is to extract value out of your draft, then finding a late round quarterback who exceeds ADP and tying that play to his pass catchers, you're likely then finding multiple values. And then the inverse is true too. If you target pass catchers and you get pass catchers who far exceed ADP, they exceed value and their hits if those pass catchers hit, the quarterback is likely to hit two. Of course, things can go south there, but if you're in a competitive league, and if you're playing in a format that pays out at the top, then it makes sense to go the stacking route according to the study, and it's one that you guys should definitely check out. It's unestablished the run and it's titled deep dive stacking in season long Fantasy. This last questions from at Saxton underscore beard should we be worried with Alvin Kamara's yard per reception decline from year one to year three? I wouldn't be that concerned if you're worried about Kamara the player. No, and most of Kamara's efficiency metrics last season. We're a little bit screwed up because of his injury, but this does correlate with a lower average depth of target year over year. Where a player is being targeted is going to influence his yards per reception rate, and for Kamara that depth has gone down year over year since he was a rookie. That's not a good thing for fantasy because we want high average depth of targets. But it's not so dramatic that we should be worried or adjust our views on Alvin Kamara. So no, I would not be worried. This as question is from at Understander underscore of who is your favorite running back and favorite wide receiver? After the ninth round in adp SO at running back and this is spoiler alert for next week's episode, but I'm starting to be very into Darryl Henderson. Here's what we know about breakout running backs based on the study that I did earlier this offseason. They're rarely handcuffs, meaning they're not backing up stud running backs. They come from ambiguous backfields. Breakout running backs historically saw their top running back teammate drafted on average at pick fifty nine. Cam Akers is around that range according to best ball ten's ADP. Breakout running backs are also pass catchers, and there are of all ages, So the last two things are kind of up in the air. For Henderson, we don't know what his target share is really going to look like in that backfield because the backfield is just so brand new. But he definitely is one of those handful of running backs who are being drafted second on his team while the starter is a fifth or a sixth round pick. Those are the guys that you generally want to draft because there's a reason those players are fifth or six round picks ahead of them. They're not established. Now. I like cam Akers a lot. I love them as a prospect, if you guys remember, but we're hearing reports that the Rams want to go with a running back by committee system, which means Henderson should have an opportunity to show what he's got now there's a lot working against him. Of course, the Rams drafted another running back with a Day two pick this year, which showed maybe they don't have that much confidence in Darryl Henderson, and Henderson was not productive last year. That's something that I've noted is not a great sign for future success. But you're not spending an early round pick to get him. He's the right kind of risk reward pick in my eyes wide receiver. I really like the round six or round seven range this year for the position. But if I have to dig deeper, I'll point out a few guys. Jamison Crowder is right around that range that you're referring to in this question, and he seems like very easy volume to acquire. He's a safe bet. Then they're Sterling Shepard, who shouldn't have a hard time exceeding ADP. I just don't know if the top fifteen or twenty ceiling is there for him, And then I'll just go back to Anthony Miller. He's a good prospect. He's just been banged up to start his career, and we saw flashes last year of him being really productive for fantasy purposes. When Taylor Gabriel was banged up and had that concussion again, the likelihood that Anthony Miller dominates is not very high. That's why he's being drafted to pick like one hundred and thirty. But it's the right type of flyer to take. Oh and with all this news going around with the Eagles and they're wide receivers, I'm definitely in on Jalen Riger. I loved him as a prospect, and I think he has a good chance to be Fantasy Football's top rookie wideout this year. This last questions from at Mark FI two eight three JJ any thoughts on grabbing both Lions running backs and season long or best ball. I do not advise doing something like this. It's the same notion that I have with handcuffs. By drafting players from the same backfield, you're raising your potential floor, but you're limiting your ceiling. If you have Ezekiel Elliott, you should be more inclined to draft Chase Edmonds than Tony Pollard. Drafting Pollard is a floor play. You're getting the safety of having the Cowboys backfield. In some leagues, maybe that's the path that you should go down. But in a best ball format where payouts are heavily skewed at the top, or in a more competitive league, it's better to have Zeke hope he doesn't miss time and then see if Kenyan Drake does, because if that happens to Kenyan Drake, then Chase Edmonds becomes valuable, and all of a sudden you've got two starting running backs instead of one. With a handcuff, you're only getting one no matter what. So the same logic applies with stacking backfields. Number One, you don't know if one of those two guys is gonna emmer in the Lions backfield. Their plan seems to be that they want some form of a committee. And then number two, if one does emerge, you just use two picks to get one running back. What if the player who emerges as DeAndre Swift and you could have used that Carrie On Johnson pick on a non worthless asset, because if one of those guys ends up being a workhorse, that means the other player is pretty much worthless. Fantasy managers for a long time have thought about safety rather than how to build a monster roster. Drafting from the same backfield or handcuffing running backs. It's a safety move, it's not a powerhouse move. This last question is from at Wayne's underscore rant, sell me on Kenyan Drake because I can't sell myself. So when you draft running backs, you should be looking for players who could be potential workhorses, and ideally workhorses and good offenses. Some players are fine if they're catching a ton of passes, but if the targets aren't there, I generally don't want that player. Jordan Howard. Kenyan Drake at least has that opportunity. We saw it last year. He got to Arizona in Week nine last season. From that point on, he accounted for eighty five percent of the team's running back rushes and he averaged a target share per game of thirteen point eight percent. If that continues into this season, then he absolutely should be drafted as an RB one. We watched him average about twenty pper points per game with Arizona last year. That's better than everyone not named Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook last year. Now, I'm not saying it's the most likely outcome, but that's absolutely in his range of outcomes. And then at worst he's part of a committee, but at least he's working within a good offense that should generate points. I like Kenyan Drake this year. I think he should be drafted as an RB one. That's how my projections laid it out too. My projections really like Kenyan Drake, so it's not a tough sell. I don't think, because we already saw it for half a season, that's going to do it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you if you get subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, enjoy your weekend and I will talk to you next week