1078: Mailbag - Free Agent Running Backs, Slot Receivers, and More

00:00:02
Speaker 1: This is the Late with your host JJ zachera J J Zachers. What's up everyone, It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode ten seventy eight of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. If you're listening to this show during the offseason, especially here in January, then you're a more hardcore fantasy manager than most, which means you're looking for some deeply research content. The Late Round newsletter is exactly that. Brandon Godola has been with the company for just a few weeks and he's been cranking out amazing research via that newsletter each week. On Wednesday, he did a deep dive on how coaching changes impact offenses, and then I sent one out yesterday on slot receivers. I'm gonna talk about that in just a second. You can sign up for that newsletter for free just at the Lateround dot com. Click newsletter and type in your email address. That's it again, that's Late Round dot com. It's a mailbag day, though. Let's get to these questions. The first ones from Twitter is from at RHCP Vikings. It says thoughts on Trayvon Henderson versus Ramandre Stephenson going into next year, Henderson played I think like four snaps Sunday, so here, I am not even in the fantasy season anymore, still talking about this Patriots backfield. What a world. But in all seriousness, this is a really, really valid question. I've seen a lot of wild narratives out there on social media this week already about that backfield, specifically people just saying that Ramandre Stephenson has been significantly better than Trayvon Henderson all season long, and now Henderson is just a boomer bust player. I just think there's an insane amount of recency bias going on with a take like that, because Ramondre Stevenson really has been good over the last month or so, genuinely objectively, but season long numbers don't paint this picture of like Stevenson being so far and away the better running back in that backfield. In fact, you guys probably remember, but back in like week thirteen or so, Henderson was the one who analytically looked so much better than Ramandre Stevenson. But when you combine regular and postseason numbers, according exten Stats, Henderson had a better EPA per rush than Stevenson this year. That's not amazingly surprising because Henderson showed off that big playability and EPA per rush. It's gonna favor big play running backs, which is fine, that's just part of the metric. And Stevenson also dealt with fumbles early on. So the next stat to look at is success rate. Success rate is more binary. It doesn't favor players who just make those big plays and sort of warp their statistics, so it's sort of discounting those extra yards and expected points that a player like Henderson might generate. There was a tweet that I saw where someone said, like Ramandre Stevenson is just so much more successful each rush, Henderson is more boom or bust. Data doesn't agree with that at all. Us a season, both regular and postseason, Henderson has had a forty percent success rate to Stevenson's thirty seven percent, and to be clear, both players were within four percentage points of each other when it came to a percentage of inside rushes and stack boxes faced. What's interesting is that Stevenson is actually boosting both of his numbers in EPA per rush and success rate with what he's done in the postseason, which again I said at the top recency bias, I think a lot of people are seeing him play well, seeing him play well in a national stage, and drawing conclusions based on that. Now, Stevenson's been better than Henderson within a metric like rushing yards over expected per rush, because Henderson's expected yards per carry is just simply higher than Stevenson's. I don't want you to walk away from this show thinking that I believe Trayveon Henderson has been better than Ramandre Stevenson. I'm merely pointing out that this is not some clear cut, obvious case where in all circumstances, Ramandre Stevenson has been better because earlier this season he was not. I think what we're seeing right now is that he's the veteran and he's more reliable, especially in pass pro, especially in these big moments. I even tweeted during the AFC Championship game and I said that quote. Talked about this on the podcast on Friday, but Ramandre Stevenson really stepped up the final month or so of the season, and I took my l don't worry. Has been a totally different inspired player. This current environment is why they need him. And I sent that tweet during that AFC Championship game, the snow was coming down, the weather wasn't very good. They needed that bruiser. They needed Ramandre Stevenson. Stevenson wins in different ways than Henderson does. We've talked about that, we've known about that all year. I still to this day don't think that they're using Henderson optimally, But that's for another discussion. The fact is New England's been in some games this postseason, in particular, where they've needed that bruiser, and that's more Remandre Stevenson style than Trayvon Henderson's. They've seen positive game scripts, they've faced offenses that have been lighting up the scoreboard, their defense is playing really well. All of that is a formula for a player like Stevenson, not Henderson. I think that, combined with the potential shoulder injury for Henderson, that's why we saw so much Stevenson in that game against Denver. Now what this looks like beyond this season is kind of anyone's guess because running back usage it comes down to a coaching decision. You guys are probably so sick of me saying that, but it's true. Running backs like Henderson tend to progress and see more work for him I think that'll come in the form of receiving, especially, But we can't deny a couple of things here. Number One, Ramandre Stevenson is very likely gonna be there in twenty twenty six. It looks like his contract has an out, but that out is in twenty twenty seven, and his play really does mesh well with Trayvon Henderson. That means I'm still expecting someone of a decent split in the twenty twenty sixth season. This run that New England's currently only reinforces that point in my opinion, So I think things would look a lot different for this backfield if Stevenson didn't turn it up during the final month of the year, and if New England didn't go on this playoff run where they've been forced a little bit to lean on that bigger running back. But that's just the reality of what happened. That's where we're at, and it's probably gonna hurt Trayvon Henderson at least in this short term, at least in twenty twenty six. The best question from twitters from at the Doune at thirteen. It says, which free agent running back are you most excited? Slash curious to see where they sign. The answer to this has to be Travis Etn in my opinion. On one hand, Etn had a good season from a fantasy perspective, especially relative to cost. On the other, how good was he actually? Now, most running back metrics they tell us what happened. They're more descriptive than predictive. So when you hear running back numbers, you should always take them with a grain of salt. With that being said, I bet you Travis TN's numbers they're worse than you'd imagine. Next Gen Stats has forty eight qualified running backs in their data set. For twenty twenty five. Of those forty eight, Etn ranked thirty second and rushing yards over expected per attempt right above what he marks, right below Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Walker. He was forty first, and success rate right above Saquon Barkley and right below Ramandre Stevenson. He was thirty third in EPA per rush, and he was twenty ninth and yards after contact per attempt. Meanwhile, PFF, among that same qualified group, ranked Etn thirty fourth in rushing grade. For what that's worth, I mean, by most metrics, Travis Etn wasn't special in twenty twenty five, but by many counting statistics, he was fantastic. And you add on the narrative of what that Jags offense was able to do, and there's probably a team out there. Maybe it's even the Jacks who can tell themselves a favorable story about Travis Etn being their bellcow. But Etn's really interesting too because Beshall Tutin is just sitting there in that Jacksonville depth chart. Tutin looked really good in this model this past year. And for what it's worth, Tooton's success rate was eleven percentage points higher than Etns this past year. So that's got to be the free agent running back that I'm most interested in watching. He not only is a tough evaluation, but he could go to a team and be their bellcal all while opening things up for the second year base Shall Tuton. This best Questions from Blue Skies from at nyt Man. It says which running backs in the top thirty and twenty twenty five are most at risk of losing touches via the team pursuing a running back and free agency or Day two pick in the NFL draft. Do you want to try and predict surprises that we should be on the lookout for. We're gonna see plenty of shifts to backfields this offseason. It's a decent free agent class. You have Travis Etn, Breize Hall, Kenneth Walker, Javonte Williams. You could even throw in guys like Rico Dowell, maybe even JK. Dobbins, Kenneth Gainwell, and then even deeper than that, there's like Rashad White, Brian Robinson, Jerome Ford. It's really not a bad free agent class at all. All of those teams backfields could then get a shakeup. I already talked about Jacksonville, but the Jets could look totally different. Maybe Seattle doesn't keep Kenneth Walker, though I do think they're going to, especially because of Charbonnay's injury. The Cowboys they're not locks to keep Davonte Williams, and Pittsburgh's backfield that has a chance to look totally different too. That was the one spot that I looked at first with this question. Gainwell's a free agent. He finished RB twenty and PPR points per game. Jalen Warren was RB nineteen. There's even a potential out with Warren's contract this year. But if you want a surprise spot for a rookie or a free agent back, I'd look at San Francisco. There seems to be a lot of chatter about Christian McCaffrey's workload this past year, which I totally understand. He had three hundred and eleven rush attempts and one hundred and twenty nine targets. He was second among running backs and rush attempts this year, and he was first by far in targets. They ran him into the ground. Now, I'm not gonna be surprised if they just re signed Brian Robinson, but he's a free agent, so that's at least a surprising place to watch. And then here's another surprising spot, how about Denver. JK. Dobbins is a free agent. He hasn't been able to stay healthy throughout his career, and he wasn't able to stay healthy this past year. RJ. Harvey would hypothetically step in and take things in that next level as a second year player. He finishes the RB twenty four and PPR points per game last year. But I didn't think RJ. Harvey was that special running the football in twenty twenty five. Now, I won't take these metrics as gospel similar to the stuff that I talked about with ETN earlier, but it's still interesting. Listen In, Harvey had the worst EPA per rush compared to JK. Dobbins Juli McLoughlin in twenty twenty five, so behind that same offensive line, his EPA per rush was worst. He had the worst success rate of the group two, and JK. Dobbins had a rushing yards over expected per attempt of plus one point one. RJ. Harvey's was minus point six and actually, among forty qualified running backs those ones that I talked about earlier, Harvey's rushing yards over expected per attempt was only better than Alvin Kamara and Bucky Irving, and that was behind the seventh best run blocking offensive line in the league according to PFF. And look, let's be real. This Sean Payton offense is always a multi back offense. I'm not saying they necessarily go out and they spend a top two round pick on a running back or anything, but a pretty decent free agent running back is on the table to compliment RJ. Harvey, or maybe they just go back to JK. Dobbins, which, as we saw in twenty twenty five, that has at least some chance to cap Harvey's ceiling. But he's definitely something to keep an eye on despite him only being a second year player. The last question this week is from Patreon. It's from Noah. It says, with your recent analysis of non elite wide receivers, how do you think this is going to impact your future rookie rankings? Do you anticipate to diminish the value of non first rounders more so than in the past. So my general answer to this is no. We have to remember that the elite wide receivers in fantasy football, they actually will look better with the way that offenses have trended. If you have one of those elite wide receivers, you're in really good shape. You have a big advantage, a big edge over your league mates. Players like pukin Akua, Jackson Smith, and Jigba. They should be great and the only way to get that next one, to get that next elite wide receivers to draft them in your rookie drafts. Now, we don't know exactly who those players are gonna be, but we need to take our chances or else we're never gonna have those players. Now, I tease this a little bit at the top. What one area where I might change my approach a little bit is with slot receivers. I sent a newsletter out about this yesterday because the data is really interesting. Now. Obviously, when we see more twelve personnel usage or heavier sets, more tight end heavy sets, that means we'll see less slot receiver usage because we have fewer wide receivers on the field on a given play and that heavier personnel. And data has shown that that's generally been the case. Over the last few years, we've seen a pretty significant decline and the raw number of wide receivers who have finished their season with three hundred and more routes run and a fifty percent, sixty percent, and seventy percent slot rate. Now, I don't want to remove that route's run threshold because I don't care about receivers who run like ten routes and seven of those routes come from the slot, because those receivers aren't relevant. It just doesn't tell us that much. I'm trying to see if more of the full time slot receivers are kind of dying in this sport. In twenty twenty five, we only had three wide receivers get to three hundred routes run and a seventy percent slot rate. The average from twenty eleven onward, according to PFF data, was closer to twelve of those players per season. We had three, and it's been like that over the last three years. Specifically, over the last two we've seen fewer and fewer pure slot guys and that's translated to fantasy too. And twenty twenty five only one wide receiver of those three with a seventy percent slot rate and three hundred routes run. Only one of him hit ten PPR points per game. Since twenty eleven, we usually see five of those players per season. Meanwhile, if you take the number of slot targets seen by tight ends and wide receivers over the last fifteen years per season, the percentage of those targets going to wide receivers is declining, meaning wide receiver slot target share is going down. It peaked around twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, when eleven personnel was super common, when we had those three wide receiver sets all over the NFL, but it's trended downward ever since. So what that means is that if there's a prospect out there who didn't prove that he could win on the outside in college, one who profiles pretty strictly as a slot we should probably discount that player. If that kind of player exists in your redraft league, you should make sure he's going to play in an offense that features more eleven personnel, because that's actually going to get him on the field. Now, I've talked a lot about this over the years, just generally speaking that slot production could be really, really valued, but you want your wide receivers who are playing in the slot to also play out wide, like we've seen with like an Amen Ross Saint Brown with a CD Lamb in the past. You don't want a Josh Downs or Jaden Red type situation where they're both extremely talented players and in my opinion, they can probably win on the outside, but they're limited in fantasy because their teams just don't allow them to play outside of the slot. So overall, nothing crazy has to happen with your wide receiver evaluation in Dynasty, but I do think you should keep that slot stuff in mind. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy football podcast, make sure you are bestreting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found it. Follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening, everyone, have a great weekend. I'll catch you next week