622: Mailbag 3/18/22

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen and this is episode six hundred and twenty two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Aman Ross Saint Brown is a hot topic in the Dynasty community, and he probably will be all off season. With DJ Sharks signing in Detroit this past week, the aman Ross Saint Brown debate resurfaced. People against Saint Brown will point out the fact that he wasn't a Day one or a Day two pick in the NFL draft, but even more central to their argument is the fact that Saint Brown was not productive until DeAndre Swift and TJ. Hawkinson were sidelined last year. That's when we really saw the aman Ross Saint Brown blow up happen, and that's where we saw some unsustainable production. And that's not wrong. That argument is not wrong. Saint Brown had one one game of overlap where he was bawling out with TJ. Howcketson active, and technically DeAndre Swift was back at the end of the year, but he wasn't the same player he was barely seeing the ball. Saint Brown mostly did what he did without those players, and during that stretch, he averaged a thirty four percent target share per game to go along with more than twenty five pper points per game. And this is coming from a dude who is drafted in round four. So clearly, given all this, he's got to be a cell. Right. Well, given how I've set this up, you're probably waiting for me to give you reasons why Saint Brown is something that you should be trading for, not trading away. But that's not really what I'm here to do. I'm more so here to explain my process with amaras Saint Brown and how I generally feel about how people were approaching him. Now by now you all know where I stand with targets as a statistic. I'm a firm believer that targets are earned. You need to get open in order to see a target, or you need a team to want to get you the ball. If a team is trying to get you the ball, that's a signal that you're talented. Thirty five percent target chairs don't just magically happen across a six game stretch. I don't care what your competition looks like you're still playing with NFL caliber players. Do you think Amarros Saint Brown is the first player to have ever played alongside poor competition. Not only that, but he did this as a rookie. I feel like that's sometimes lost here too. If you just look at what he did on a points per game basis, if you include even the games where he wasn't featured that much, He's part of a pretty freaking good group of wideouts right now. Since twenty eleven, there have been twenty nine rookie wide receivers in the NFL to hit twelve or more PPR points per game. And keep in mind, Amanross Saint Brown was well above that number. He was at thirteen point four. Among those twenty nine, you have stud after stud after stud. I don't want to read you the whole list because it would take forever, but the only true misses on that list of twenty nine are Darius Slayton, Marteve's Bryant, Calvin Benjamin, and Jordan Matthews. And mind you, some of those players that I just named didn't hit thirteen PPR points per game when aman Ross Saint Brown did. Maybe you could throw Sammy Watkins in there, maybe Chase Claypool, maybe Brandon Nyuk, maybe Elijah Moore. We just don't know yet with some of those guys. But the fact that I'm even calling out Claypool and Watkins, Nayuke, and Elijah Moore, that shows you just how good this list is. So let's pretend that those players, the players that missed on that list of twenty nine, and again, those twenty nine players are rookies who hit twelve or more PPR points per game since twenty eleven. Let's pretend that those players who were misses are Aman Ross Saint Brown's worst case scenario. Let's focus on the four who we know were sure Bus, Darius Slayton, Martavis Bryant, Calvin Benjamin, and Jordan Matthews. Rather than look at how poorly those guys played after year one, I think what's arguably just as important is looking at how the market reacted. Because the question with aman Ross Saint Brown right now isn't just is this sustainable? Number one, It's not sustainable. What he did at the end of last year not sustainable, But he's not priced in a way that people are making that assumption. The question is not just about the sustainability of his production. It's also about the sustainability of his market value. Ask yourself the question, what if Saint Brown takes a major step back in year two? What if Amin Ross Saint Brown does what those other misses did. We can look at the players who busted alongside Dynasty League Football dot COM's average draft position data to help us, which you guys can access over on Dynasty League Football dot Com. During the January after Darius Slayton's rookie season, he had an overall ADP of ninety one and a half. He came from nowhere, so it's not surprising that his ADP was not very high despite a good rookie year. During Slayton's second season, he scored three touchdowns, he didn't see any real improvement in yards or receptions, and his overall ADP went from about ninety two to one hundred and twenty two, which, all things considered, that's not a very big drop. When you're drafting ninety second overall or one hundred and twenty second overall, that's not a big drop. Those are generally similar players. Okay, let's move on to Marteves Brian after his rookie season, he had an ADP of fifty six overall that rose to twentieth overall after his second year, and then after his third year when he was suspended, it fell to seventy four. Bryan's a weird case because of all the off the field stuff, but after year two, despite being a bust right now, he saw his ADP rise dramatically. Then there's Calvin Benjamin. Benjamin had an ADP of thirty one after his rookie year. He completely missed his second season because of a torn acl His ADP despite missing his sophomore campaign in the NFL, it dropped six spots. That's it, six spots year over year. Jordan Matthews, he had an ADP of twenty seven overall after his rookie season. He saw slightly better numbers in year two, but it wasn't dramatic. There was no dramatic increase from year one to year two. His ADP moved up one spot. Even after a down year three, his ADP was still thirty ninth overall. This is what I think is missing with the Aman Ross Saint Brown argument. There's a lot of cushion to his market value. If he has like a twenty fifth percentile season, he can still maintain decent value in dynasty. So buying into Saint Brown is a low end wide receiver two or a high end wide receiver three right now, it's a lot easier to stomach that when you know that he has to completely flop for his value to really tank. You're not buying into a player who's twenty nine years old and after one bad season we all question if this is the end for him. Like if Alan Robinson goes out wherever he signs at the time of this recording, I have no idea where he signs. If Alan Robinson goes out and has a terrible twenty twenty two campaign, what do you think is gonna happen to his ADP It's gonna tank. We saw with AJ Green, And again I'm not positioning this in the way to say that Saint Brown is a bye right now. In fact, I don't think the Lions are done adding wide receivers, and when they add a piece potentially in the draft, Saint Brown's value is gonna drop even more because not only do they get Chark, and not only are Hawkinson and Swift coming back, but now you might have another incoming rookie to quote take targets away from Saint Brown. But good players see a baseline target share. There's zero chance Saint Brown will maintain a thirty five percent target share per game rate, But no one is expecting that. Can he hit a twenty percent target shair with decent competition around him? Absolutely, because that's what good players do. They command the ball, and all signs point to Saint Brown being a good player. Why are people out there giving TJ. Hawkinson the benefit of the doubt but not am and Ross Saint Brown. Why are we assuming an offense wants to run its passing game through a running back and not a young wide receiver. That doesn't make any sense. It would take a lot for Saint Brown's value to completely sync year over year. Maybe it happens, but we're playing probability. We're placing bets, and my bet is that even though Saint Brown may not have this insane long term ceiling, we also know that based on how the markets have shifted historically, we know that it's unlikely Saint Brown just completely tanks his value. Now, I just wanted to open with this because it stems back to what the rewind episode was all about on Monday. We have to always try to look at how assets appreciate and value. It's so so important in Dynasty. Now, before we get into the questions this week, because this is a mailbag show college basketball fans, the bracket is set and Fandle and GMC have teamed up to give you three chances to win a share of seventy thousand dollars in DFS site credit, introducing the GMC Mountain Climber Series, a completely free to play, brand new contest series that gives you a chance to win big throughout the first three rounds of the Men's Big Dance. Here's how it works. Just correct Please select the winners of each matchup listed of the rounds games. The more selections you answer correctly, the higher you'll move up the mountain. Using GMC's custom Mountain Climber leader Board, you'll be able to see where you stack up against the competition in real time every day. If you get every answer correct, you'll reach the summit and when your share of twenty thousand dollars in DFS site credit each round as a nighted bonus. One hundred lucky fans who entered any of the contests would want a share of the ten thousand dollars bonus DFS site credit prize. Head to Fandle and reserve your spot in the GMC Mountain Climber series. And head to GMC dot com Slash Future Hyphen Vehicles Slash twenty twenty two Hyphen Sierra to reserve your new GMC Sierra. The first question this week is from Patreon. It's from Reese. It says, Mitch Trubisky. That's it, that's the question. But seriously, thoughts on the Steelers new quarterback. What kind of value do you think he will have in fantasy this year? And if you have him in Dynasty, what would you be doing with him? Thanks love the pod and and your new venture. Thanks Reese. I think it would be tough to deal Trubisky in Dynasty because his actual usefulness in Fantasy will outweigh the perception everyone thinks an understandably so that Mitch Trubisky is not good. The likelihood that he goes on some Ryan Tannehill trajectory is small, but as a starter he can produce because of what he can do as a runner. He averaged over two additional points per game with his legs the last time that we saw him, and the Steelers are doing what they can to boost the offensive line through free agency, and there are good weapons there. Triubisky is someone who will make a ton of sense this year as a QB three in super flex leagues as a result, So I'm not ready to trade him away unless I get a really good offer, mostly because I don't think anyone is a believer. But if he starts producing the first few weeks of the season, you can trade him away then, similar to what we saw as Sam Darnold this past year. This next question is from Twitter from at narp Dad. It says, how should we approach rookies and startup drafts pre NFL Draft? Yeah, the vast majority of people don't like doing drafts with rookies before the actual NFL draft because we don't know landing spots pre draft. Obviously, that's the reason people don't want to do it. But there are benefits to it. Number One, it's actually pretty fun. It's fun having players on your team and hoping they get good draft capital and a good landing spot. But number two, if you're on top of things, you can honestly benefit. You can find an edge by doing these drafts pre draft. There are sites out there like grinding the MoOx dot com and NFL Mock draft Database dot com that help us predict potential draft capital. Like I may really like the production profile of Tyler Batty, but he's expected to be a Day three pick, so I've got a temper expectations on the flip side. John Metchi isn't really doing it for me on the production end, but he's got good projected draft capital, or at least decent projected draft capital. So if he falls and falls and falls in the draft happening before the NFL Draft, then he could actually become a big value. So analyze prospects the way that you generally analyze them, like things shouldn't drastically change for the higher end picks in a startup draft or a rookie draft pre and post draft. It can for some players, but it's not the norm. And utilize those sites to help see what kind of draft capital a player could get. At the end of the day, we shouldn't overrate landing spot generally to begin with, especially for our early round picks. Like I just said, so doing your startup draft or rookie draft prior to the NFL Draft. It means you definitely won't be swayed based on landing spot. That's not a bad thing because you shouldn't drastically be swayed anyway. Speaking of landing spot, this next one is from Kirby on Patreon and it says, Hey, JJ, love the prospect guy that you shared. Thanks. I found it very interesting and helpful. How much do you factor in landing spots and team outlook for players, particularly in redraft leagues? For example, if Garrett Wilson gets drafted by the Panthers assuming no quarterback change, versus Drake London going to a team like the Raiders. Thank you. So, just so it's clear, I'm recording this episode before any Deshaun Watson news, so I'm talking about the Panthers here without Deshaun Watson. I have no idea if they're going to get him or not. But yeah, the nice part about redraft is that you can very easily project that current season that you're concerned about. I mean, maybe I shouldn't say easily, but we can actually make year long projections in redraft. It's harder to do that in dynasty because you're looking across multiple years and situations can change, So we're buying into talent a lot more in Dynasty or who you think is talented because of that fact, because situations can change, and you should always do that. To be fair, you should always look at talent first. I just mean, if you want lasting production, you shouldn't be prioritizing landing spot in Dynasty. But in redraft there are going to be instances where a team in a singular season can make an average player look a lot better. If that makes sense, I still do consider landing spot in Dynasty when I'm looking within a tier, like with Rashad Bateman last year, he got pushed down within his own tier in favor of Elijah Moore because Baltimore is a spot where we know they're going to be fairly run heavy as long as Lamar Jackson's the quarterback. But take the London and Wilson example. There's a good chance both players are in the same tier for me in Dynasty post draft, But if London went to the Raiders and Wilson went to a team with a bad quarterback situation, assuming no quarterback change, I likely would go with London a good bit more in redraft, they wouldn't be in the same tier like they are in Dynasty, And it's because that immediate situation is better, and I only have to care about that immediate situation in redraft leagues. This next question is another one from Patreon. It's from Robert. It says JJ curious which upcoming third year wide receivers did super well in your Z prospect model and subsequently year two model but didn't actually produce in year two. Since your model is looking at first three years for possible success, I'm wondering if we have some obvious buys in dynasty or undervalued targets and redraft if the Wilson trade didn't happen. I was thinking, maybe feels like I can tell a story about why he didn't succeed last year, maybe Brandon Ayuk or Michael Pittman, unless we think last year was breakout ish already. Thanks JJ, love the pod. Thanks So there's a little bit of lingo in this question that I want to clear up. The Z prospect model is what my prospect model is called very creatively. People are becoming more and more aware of it now because the Prospect Guide dropped on Monday, so they're reading it. The Z prospect model is looking at these players as they enter the league. The year two model is a combination of that prospect model and how players performed in year one. It helps predict how they're going to do in years two and three. Naturally, the year two model is way more predictive than the prospect model because the year two model is actually utilizing NFL data. You have a year's worth of NFL data for these players. It's not just their prospect profile. So after a year in the NFL, we have a way better idea of who's good and who's not. Anything above the ninety fifth percentile a year two model is considered excellent. Those are the players that I want to buy in fantasy. In that twenty twenty class, which was very good, the players above that mark Ceedee Lamb, Jerry Judy, T Higgins, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Nyuk. The next tier that included Chase Claypole, but hit rates in the ninety to ninety fifth percentile grouping they're not as good. So I guess from that just based on your question. Ayuk sort of makes sense, as does Jerry Judy, but his price point is rising a ton because of the Russell Wilson trade, So I guess that's my answer for this one, Brandon Nyuk. The last question this week is from at Money Mike nine Zho two. How do you feel about Devonte's Smith's value in dynasty leagues with him being tied to Jalen Hurts. I'm debating on making a trade for him, but hurt scares me. Honestly, is it possible for a run first quarterback to develop into an above average passer? In my opinion, Lamar always showed the arm talent. So let's first answer this by looking at DeVante Smith the player. A breakdown of Smith is in my prospect guide because I have like thirty five pages dedicated to the year two model, and DeVante Smith in that model is in a tier where we see really really good hit rates. Like it would be shocking if Smith just disappeared and didn't give us at least a wide receiver three type season in either year two or year three, because he's good and he was an elite prospect. But I think this could be a time to buy Smith overall, not just because of that, but because we can't make the assumption that Jalen Hurts is a long term answer. I mean he might be, we just don't know that yet. But picture a scenario where he is the actual long term answer. You think Philadelphia is gonna stick with him if he doesn't improve as a passer, and if he improves as a passer, that's a good thing for the pass catchers. We've heard and seen so many rumors over the last year and a half that seem to tell us that the Eagles aren't totally bought in with Jalen Hurts. As we're seeing across the league right now, it's not exactly a good time to need a quarterback or to make a change, So it makes sense to keep Hurts as the starter and hope he can improve as a passer. And I think there's genuine hope for that. So either Hurtz gets better as a passer and that's good for Smith, or they go and they make a change and that has a chance to switch the offense into being less of a run heavy one. So DeVante Smith to me, is more of a buy than a sell. We can't let this short term situation, which still isn't like horrendous, but we can't let that short term situation distort our long term outlook. That's going to do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at LATEROUNDQB. Thanks for listening everyone, I really really appreciate it. Make sure you go check out everything that's going on over at lateround dot com. You can buy the Prospect Guide for fourteen ninety nine. People seem to like it so far, so that's good. You can also become a patron, and we have a discord now for our patrons, so definitely check that out lateround dot com. Otherwise, I'll talk to you next week.