730: Week 16 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Late with your host JJ zacher JJ Zacharison. What's up everyone, It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode seven and thirty of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I wasn't totally happy with the results of last week's sleeper show. Matt Ryan played with a really weird game script and he didn't really come through as a streamer. That Mike White injury really derailed things too, as did the fact that Ramandre Stevenson ended up playing. And then one of my biggest misses of the week was with the Texans backfield that ended up being even more of a mess than what we originally thought. There were a handful of good hits though, the streaming defenses were pretty good, and both Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson got it done, but overall it was a below average week. Now, before getting to the sleepers for Week sixteen, I wanted to remind you about the NBA Clutch Shot presented by Buzzer and NBA DFS contest taking place every Wednesday from now until March that gives you a chance to win a share Fandel's biggest prize pool. Simply construct your best nine player roster while staying under the salary cap, and follow along as the game's unfold using Fandel's live scoring feature. Earn points for points scored, rebounds, assist, steals, and blocks, and watch as your lineup climbs the ranks. The higher up the leaderboard your lineup finishes, the more cash you'll win. It's that simple. The contest is live, so visit fandle dot com Slash League Slash NBA Hyphen Maine, Hyphen Marquee, Hyphen one and submit your lineups. Now that's fandle dot Com Slash League Slash NBA Dash, Maine Dash, Marquee Dash one. So before I get going with this, I want to make a general statement about this week's slate of games. Because it's rough, there are weather concerns all across the country, so make sure you're paying attention to weather forecasts before blindly plugging a player into your lineup. There are some really low game totals this week that are being impacted by bad weather, but as is the case each week, we'll kick things off by looking at players rostered in ten to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues and we'll start with Gardner Minshew. Now, at the time of this recording, I don't know if Jalen Hurts is going to play or not officially, but it definitely sounds like it's unlikely that he goes, which means Minshew would be the starter for Philadelphia. We saw him get a couple of starts last year for the Eagles. He scored nineteen and fourteen fantasy points. Not bad. Now the Eagles are improved offensively and have a better arsenal for him, and according to Fandeles Sportsbook, they've got the fourteenth highest implied team total on this week slate. Dallas is not an easy matchup on paper. They're the fourth toughest one when looking at a justin fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. But they're coming off a game where Trevor Lawrence threw for over three hundred yards and at four touchdowns, and the Eagles have been good at handling pressure this year. They have the best pass blocking grade in football according to PFF, so they might be able to handle Dallas the number one team in the league and pressure rate. So I don't think Minshew's that bad of a streamer given the weapons that he's throwing to I would play him over Brock Perdy, but I don't mind Perdy. Like I said in the fifteen Transaction Show, he does have a little bit of touchdown regression heading his way, but he's not a terrible terrible streamer. He's throwing a touchdown on every one hundred and two passing yards. That's way better than the league average, and he has a six and a half percent touchdown rate that measures touchdowns divided by attempts. That's also a well above average mark. But the forty nine ers do have a strong implied team total this week, and it's not easy finding quarterback streamers. I don't love the match up against Washington, but they've been more beatable this year through the air than on the ground. They actually have the best rush defense in football according to Number five's schedule adjusted expected points model, so Perdy can still work, though I'm not sure his ceiling is super super high. Now, moving on to running back, Tyler Aljiers saw slight uptick and work this past week with Caleb Huntley suffering an injury. Now he gets an average match up against the Ravens. As I mentioned on the ten Trends episode, the Falcons were still super run heavy last week despite running so many plays while trailing. I'm not concerned about the Falcons going away from the run, and Algira has seen double digit carries in each of his last three He's not an amazing play, but he's a running back seeing volume who might be sitting on your waiver wire. That's good enough now. In that same game as Gus Edwards. JK. Dobbins is currently likely to go this weekend, but he did miss practice for some maintenance earlier this week. Edwards has seen running back rush heres of forty three thirty two percent over the last two weeks, and while that hasn't translated into special fantasy performances, the Falcons are beatable. The Ravens not only could just flat out see a great game script in this game for their running backs because they're seven and a half point favorites, but Atlanta's the tenth best matchup and adjusted points allowed to running backs this year. It's hard to love Edwards. He's not gonna see a lot of work through the air, if any, But like I said, it's hard to find running backs on the waiver wire who are seeing any sort of volume. And then I think this last. The spot to look at with running back is in the Colts backfield. I do like Zach Moss most because he played two thirds of the Colt snaps against the Vikings and he had a decent game, carrying the ball twenty four times. The Chargers of the seventh best matchup for running backs, and they've been beat on the ground this year. So there's a chance that the Colts lean on Moss in that backfield, but Deon Jackson might be the PPR play. If this game script goes south, which is very very possible, then Jackson will likely gobble up some of the targets in that backfield. But there is one thing to note. The Chargers actually ranked twenty sixth in adjusted target share allowed to running backs. It's not necessarily a good receiving matchup on paper for this running back group. If you're desperate for a flex play, going Moss and standard or half PPR leagues, that makes some sense, and you could even risk Deon Jackson in a PPR format, you're just playing the game script game more than likely if you're doing that now a wide receiver, even with Hunter Renfro and Darren Waller back last week, mac Collins got it done. He had a twenty five percent target chair and he scored fourteen PPR points and he's now average a target share per game of almost twenty four percent over his last five. Pittsburgh secondary is not good. They're the eighth best matchup for wide receivers and the justin fantasy points allowed now that game environment doesn't look all that great, partially due to weather concerns, but Hollins is a viable wide receiver. Four Nico Collins and Brandon Cooks they can miss yet another game this week, so Chris Moore has to be on your radar. He's seen target shaars of forty six percent and thirty three percent over his last two two games without Collins and Cooks, and the Texans get a Titans team this week that's been the absolute worst against wide receivers this year and ad justin fantasy points allowed now, it kind of projects to be an ugly game, especially if Ryan Tannehill can't go, which is very very possible right now, but that high of a target share deserves attention now. Probably my favorite waiver wire wide receiver play this week is Markue's good one. Tyler Lockett's injured, and he's had a twenty four percent target chair in Seattle's offense this year. I'm not someone who believes a player will just completely take that on, because targets are earned. But that target share is going to be dispersed throughout the Seahawks offense, and I'd imagine Marquise Goodwin will see a good chunk of it. He's seen three games this year with a target share at or above fifteen percent, and he'll play as the team's number two receiver. Back in Week seven, dk Metcalf played just twenty eight percent of Seattle snaps. In that game, Marquise Goodwin had a nineteen percent target chair and he scored twenty two point seven PPR points. Now the Seahawks get the Chiefs, they not only could have a pass heavy script, but Casey is a top ten wide receiver matchup and adjusted fantasy points allowed, so Goodwin makes plenty of sense. This week, the Baltimore Ravens have no wide receivers. Rashat Bateman's been out and now Devin Duverne's out. The Ravens got Sammy Watkins this week. That's what we're dealing with right now. The de facto number one guy is the Marcus Robinson. He's played by far the most snaps in that offense among the healthy wide receivers, and the Ravens have a plus matchup against the Falcons this week. Atlanta's the sixth best matchup and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Now, I don't love Robinson. If Tyler Huntley goes again. We know that he struggled and the game environment in that one could be bad for the passing attack. But Robinson does have a twenty three percent target share per game rate over his last seven and that could even rise a little bit with Devin DuVernay being out, even though Duverney hasn't been that involved as a receiver. So DeMarcus Robinson works. But I don't know if I absolutely love him. Now. The worst weather game this weekend seems to be the one going on in Cleveland. You've got the Browns facing the Saints, and that game total it's hovered around thirty two points all week. There's gonna be high wins and that can really impact fantasy football. So let me ask you this, would it shock you if the Saints and the Browns both go with a run heavy approach? Probably not and if they do, that wouldn't Taysom Hill make a lot of sense. He's still roster in fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues. I wouldn't be surprised if the Saints give him a little bit of a bumped week given the weather circumstance. Now this is more subjective than my standard take, but I think he makes sense as maybe a lower end tight end one or a higher end tight end two. Now I talked about Tyler Lockett being out and that could funnel targets to Noah Fan and even Will Disley. Fans is my preferred choice between the two because he's been a little bit more productive of late, but they both run a very similar number of routes in that Seahawks offense. The Seahawks have a twenty four percent tight end target share this year. That's three percentage points above the league average, and I wouldn't be surprised if that inch is closer to maybe even thirty percent this week given that lock An injury. So I like Fan, and I think Disley even makes sense as a deeper streamer. Now we're onto players rostered and zero to ten percent of Yahoo leagues. I hope you don't have to rely on these guys in your semi final, but you never know. The only quarterback I've got for you is Sam Darnald. And no, of course I don't feel great about recommending Sam Darnald. The Panthers are hosting the Lions to Troit. Is the number one matchup for quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed. That's really the argument. Zach Wilson was QB nine against the Lions last week. Just a handful of weeks ago, Daniel Jones was the QB five. Quarterbacks against Detroit. Over their last eight games have averaged a weekly ranking of six and a half. That's insane. Now, of course, this game isn't being played in a dome, and the Panthers love to establish the run. They've been added below a forty percent neutral script pass eight in four of their last five games. They're gonna try to run it against Detroit, but the Lions have been great at stopping the run during the second half of the season, so I could see a scenario where Darnold is forced to air it out a little bit. Now. I talked about Royce Freeman on the fifteen Transaction Show, and you know that I don't absolutely love him. He didn't even lead the Texans and snapshare this past week, but he was the most effective rusher for them. If you're desperate, I could maybe see him being a flex play with the hope that Ryan Tannehill doesn't go for the Titans. At the time of this recording, I don't know if he's in or not. If that happens, then the Texans have a higher probability of keeping it close. That would help Royce Freeman, and maybe the Texans just want a reward Freeman. Anyway, It's not the best matchup in the world, and it's a crowded backfield At this point. There just aren't that many sub ten percent running backs to look to this week. Joshua Kelly's another one, though. He's seen a forty percent running back rush here or higher in two of his last three. And there's a chance the Chargers see a positive game script against the Colts this week. That's what you have to bank on with these lower tiered running back plays. Game script. The Chargers are four and a half point road favorites and Indianapolis is a top six matchup for running backs and adjusted fantasy points allowed, so I think Kelly's an interesting deep play. Now I talked about Sam Darnold and Terris Marshall naturally makes some sense in this Tier two. Detroit's the fifth best matchup for fantasy wideouts and adjusted points allowed, and Marshall has averaged about a seventeen percent target share over his last seven games. You just have to cross your fingers. Like I said earlier, that the Panthers attack the Lion's weakness and aren't stubborn offensively. Isaiah Hodgens is one player that I like more than Marshall within this tier. I've attacked this matchup against Minnesota all season because they've been one of the worst teams in football against perimeter wide receivers. Hodgens has barely played in the slot this year, and he's seen a seventeen percent target chair per game over his last four and across that time frame, he's averaged eleven point three ppuero points per game. I like Darius Slayton more from that same offense, but Hodgens makes sense as a deeper play. And then I've got two deep tight end plays for you. One is from that same Giants team, and that's Daniel Bellinger. I know he didn't have a great game last week, but that was partially due to a tough matchup. The Commanders are one of the best teams in football against tight ends. Bellinger still saw a thirteen percent target chair and he ran the fifth most routes at tight end last week across the league. Minnesota this week is a top ten matchup for tight ends and adjusted fantasy points allowed. And then finally, Kate otten Auden ran one fewer route than Cameron Brait last week. He's now run nine more routes than him over their last two And this one's really all about the matchup. Arizona is the second best matchup for tight ends and adjusted fantasy points allowed. They rank first in percentage of receiving yards allowed go into the tight end position, and they're tied with Seattle in number of top twelve tight end performances given up. So you can go with Auten, but you could even look at Cameron Braid too, And very quickly, let's just talk defense. Cleveland's in that low over under game against the Saints. They're definitely in play, but so are the Saints. They're both pretty safe options. You can look to the Steelers in an iffy Weather game against the Raiders, the Chargers get Nick Foles as decent favorites, Detroit could get it done against the Panthers, and Cincinnati against New England they work too. There's a lot of good defensive plays this week, but those are the ones that are most likely on your waiver wire right now. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't fit to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly Mailbag show.