942: 15 Transactions for Week 11

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Speaker 1: This is the last with your host JJ zacher Retha j J zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ zachar Esen in this episode nine and forty two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by Underdog. Thanks for tuning in. Before I get to the transactions this week, I want to remind you to check out Underdog over On Underdog you can play pick them in Champions Mode, and of course you can do snake drafts every single week. Just look at the lobby. They're literally over twenty drafts. You can join right now for this week slate to check it all out. Head to Underdog Fantasy dot com and sign up with promo code Late Round. That'll get you a deposit offer and it'll also get you a link to my rest of season rankings. That's if you sign up with promo code Late Round, make a deposit and start playing. Now, let's get to these transactions. Add Oudrick estimate the Broncos in total. Their running backs have not been very effective on the ground this year. You Coulick get their team rushing EPA and it ranks just below average compared to the rest of the league. But don't forget they have a mobile quarterback. Gavonte Williams and Julia McLaughlin have been below average and rushing yards over expected per rush, and neither of them are giving us that much in terms of EPA, So I don't think it's that surprising to see how the Broncos deployed Arodric Estimate. In Week ten against the Chiefs. He played forty five percent of the team's offensive snaps. His previous high end snap share was ten percent. He had a running back rush share of about eighty two percent. That was actually a season high for the entire team for any running back all year. It was clear that the Broncos just want to get Estime more involved now. Estimate is a prospect. If you didn't listen to me during the offseason, he profiled as an early down bruiser. The ZAP model didn't love him though, because he wasn't that much of a pass catcher. He was on the younger side. Though he's a younger prospect now we should anticipate Denver using him in that way. We even saw that in Week ten, despite seeing the snapshare, despite seeing the running back rush air, he still trailed Javonte Williams and routes run. But when usage trends up like this for a rookie running back, you have to try to get him off the waiver wire. I do have to say, though Denver's running back schedule rest of season, it's kind of rough when looking at a justin Fantasy points allowed by Deebo Samuel. So we don't have a huge sample size of Deebo Samuel without Brandon Ayuk in this brock Perty era. But we do have something in Ayuk's single miss game last year, Samuel saw a thirty five percent target chair and he scored twenty five PPR points prior to week ten and since it started twenty twenty three. This, according to Adam levitan Over had established the run. Samuel had a thirty percent target share and a forty eight percent targets per our run rate on plays where Ayuk was off the field. Now, Samuel didn't hit those marks against the Buccaneers on Sunday. Instead, he only had an eighteen percent target share and a seventeen percent targets per out run rate. But I don't think that one game tells us the entire story. Look at his historical splits, look at what his numbers have been even when IUK has been healthy, so I'd be willing to trade for Deebo Samuel this week. The ceiling is still pretty massive, and San Francisco doesn't have the worst fantasy playoff schedule. In the playoffs, they get the Rams, Dolphins, and Lions. So I do think that Samuel's a bye. Add Ricky Piersoll now at the very least, if you don't want to trade for Samuel, you could just add Ricky Piersol off the waiver wire if he's out there now. I talked about Piersol last week's Sleepers episode, and he came through with seventeen PPR points. He saw just as many targets as Deebo Samuel did. He ran a route on seventy one percent in San Francisco's dropbacks. That's not great, but it's really solid. Now. Last week I talked about Juwan Jennings as a bye. I would still rather have Jennings than Pierce a rest of season. His usage was better and he's been bawling out this year. But Pearsall should have plenty of usability in this high powered offense. I highly doubt he's going to be sleeper eligible here in Week eleven, sell Mark Andrews. It's been a wild year for Mark Andrews. As you guys know, he got off to a really, really slow start. Through his first four games he totaled twelve and a half PPR points combined, and then as a result on this show, I said in shallower formats, Mark Andrews was a drop candidate, and then naturally right after that, he kind of goes on a heater. He's averaged thirteen point nine PPR points per game over his last six and in Week ten he scored eighteen point eight PPR points. He had a season high twenty two percent target shair. He's been a tight end one ever since everyone gave up on him. Now, production is always what we want. We need our fantasy assets to score points, but we can't just ignore how they're scoring points. Andrews has been running hot, but he's been running hot mostly through finding the end zone. He scored five touchdowns over his last five games. That's not gonna be easy to sustain. And he's done that while only getting to a twenty percent target share one time, and that one time was last week, and last week Isaiah likely was sidelined. Now if Isaiah Likely continues to miss games, then Mark Andrews does have a shot to produce. And Week ten, he ran a route on ninety four percent of Baltimore's dropbacks. That was by far a season high. His route participation this year has been between fifty percent and seventy percent. Most weeks. He was at ninety four percent. Without Isaiah Likely, we were seeing old Mark Andrews. So with this recommendation, I think that you could just wait to hear about Isaiah Likely because that is a very big deal. But if we do see that Likely's back, I'm anticipating Mark Andrews' usage to go back to what we've seen all season long, and his production has sort of outpaced that usage since Week four. So right now, if you're sitting here and you can get something from Mark Andrews that's equal to where he was drafted in your fantasy drafts this year, I don't think that's a bad idea at all, especially as you look at the fantasy playoffs. Ravens tight ends have the third toughest schedule in the league according to adjusted Fantasy points allowed. Now, look, I don't think you absolutely have to do this transaction, but I do think there's a very real chance, as long as Isaiah likely ends up being healthy, that this is a high point for Mark Andrews from a usage perspective, ad ad Ni Mitchell. So Michael Pimom miss Week ten because of a back injury that's been lingering and also a finger injury that allowed rookie ad Ni Mitchell to step in as more of a full time player in this Colts offense, and he ended up seeing a seventeen percent target share, his highest mark since Week one. He also saw a season high ninety five percent route participation. Now, the Colts have a pretty average rest of season schedule for wide receivers, and things could change very quickly if Michael Pittman returns or if Indianapolis ends up giving Anthony Richardson that starting job again. It does sound like Joe Flacco is going to start this week, though, but Mitchell has some upside as a high variance talent. If you guys listen to my prospecting work over the offseason, then you know that my model didn't love Ady Mitchell, but it was very obvious that his profile just had a lot of volatility. So maybe that high end ends up hitting and I am adding Mitchell over Alec Pierce for this single reason. We kind of know what we're getting out of Alec Pearce. We know that he hasn't been a reliable starter in fantasy football. So I would just rather take a shot on Ady Mitchell and see if something really comes of it, because the Colts could also just start giving him more run by Kobe Myers. Fantasy managers don't want to invest in the Raiders offense, and I can't blame them, but that could create some buying opportunities. I think Jakobe Myers is a good football player, and without DeVante Adams, he's been seeing some really good usage in this offense. Adams last played for the Raiders back in Week three against the Panthers. Through that point in time, the first three weeks of this season, Myers was averaging just a fifteen percent target share per game rate. Since then, that number shot up to almost thirty two percent, which is really really good. Now. The Raiders have a tough short term schedule for wide receivers, but it gets good in the fantasy playoffs. They get the Falcons, the Jags, and the Saints. Those are all top half matchups. By Justin fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and Atlanta and Jacksonville are top seven matchups. Now, you could wait to trade for Myers, but I would rather just trade for him right now because people might start to see this usage trend. But there is a chance, given the harder immediate schedule, that there may be another by moment before your trade deadline. Add Gus Edwards. So Gus Edwards return from ir in week ten. He pushed Camani Videl to an active status and Edwards got right back to work. He had a running back rush are of thirty seven percent. Now, as usual, Edwards didn't see a target. That's going to be a problem for him in fantasy football. He only ran two routes on Sunday before his injury. He was in that ten to thirty percent route participation range. That's not going to really cut it from a ceiling perspective. JK. Dobbins is still playing that role, but as a bye week villain, as someone to play when the Chargers might see a positive game script. That's where Gus Edwards could be useful. By Justin Herbert. So if you listen to last week's mailbag episode, you're already a step ahead because someone asked me about Justin Herbert and how I felt about him the rest of season, and my answer was that he was kind of a bye candidate. This is just a more formal way of saying that I'm just not sure the fantasy football market really realizes what's happening with Justin Herbert, and it's probably because of an anchoring bias, because to start the season he wasn't very good in fantasy. He averaged eleven point seven standard Fantasy points per game across his first six games, but we have to remember he was dealing with that ankle injury. We have seen some signs that he's recovered. Not only has he average over twenty one points per game over his last three, but he's also seen a rushing yards per game average of about twenty eight yards. During the stretch. Across his first six games when he wasn't performing very well, he was averaging five point seven rushing yards per game. The Chargers also aren't his run heavy. According to Fantasy Life data, LA's dropbacks over expected rate has been positive, meaning they've been more pass heavy than expected in three of their last four games. They weren't in the green during any of their first five games this season. So the Chargers are throwing it a little bit more justin Herbert is running it a little bit more. And guess what their rest of season schedule. It's fourth best for quarterbacks when looking at justin Fantasy points allowed. Its third best over the next four weeks. They have upcoming matchups against the Bengals, Ravens, and Falcons. Now, there's rarely a need to go really crazy for a quarterback in a single quarterback league, but I do think that Herbert makes sense as a bye ad Will Disley. So we'll talk about another Charger and we'll talk about Will Disley. So Hayden Hurst missed week seven and eight, Will Disley saw a spike in usage during that time. From weeks one through six, Disley averaged a twelve point seven percent target share per game rate. His role participation was usually in that like thirty percent forty percent range. That's what he was seeing through the first month and a half of the season. But without Hayden Hurst for those two weeks, his target share jumped to twenty six and a half percent. His rout participation was in the seventy five percent range. Now, the reason I didn't talk about adding him then was because Hayden Hurst was returning, which he did two weeks ago. I figured that we'd see Disley's usage drop again, but that has not happened. He's now coming off two games with Hurst, and he saw target shairs of twelve percent and thirty three percent in those two games. Most importantly, his route share has been around sixty eight percent. It's looking like Will Disley is officially the primary pass catching tight end for this Chargers offense. And like I just said, with Justin Herbert, they have a pretty favorable rest of season schedule. So I think Will Disley's an obvious ad ad Kai Shan Boody. I feel like not enough people were talking about kay Shan Boody right now, which, by the way, it is Booty. It's not Boutet. That's out of his mouth. Booty has seen his usage just get better and better in this New England offense. Earlier this year, his route participation was sort of in that like thirty percent to sixty percent range. In Week six that roses seventy six percent, Then in his next game it was eighty eight percent. This past week, in Week ten it was one hundred percent. He ran a route on every single New England dropback, and good target shairs have followed this uptick and raw participation, which is what we generally see. He's now hit the twenty percent target share mark in two of his last three games. Now, some of you might remember the ZAP model did like Kayshambudi coming out, he just seemed to have some work ethic issues. But if that's changed, if he's figured that out, we're looking at a very talented player with an up and coming quarterback. Maybe things won't hit this year, but I think that he absolutely needs to be on your radar. Add Marquees Valdez Scantling. Now, look, the good here is that Marquez Valdez Scantling scored twenty five point nine PPR points on Sunday and he's on a team that lacks wide receiver depth and talent. New Orleans top receivers and routes run against Atlanta where Marquez Valdez Scantling, Mason Tipton, and Kevin Austen Junior. Now the bad side of this is that this is MVS. We have a pretty big sample size of him not being this high end fantasy contributor, and despite leading the team in routes run this past week at wide receiver, there was still a pretty heavy rotation. He ran a route on just two thirds of the team's dropbacks. He only had a fourteen percent target share. So yes, I think that you can add mvs coming off this big performance. What if it leads to more work, what if they do give him a better route share. Just don't go crazy sell DeAndre Swift. Now. A couple of weeks ago, in a ten trans episode, I talked about DeAndre Swift in the schedule that he was about to face. Over Swift's last five games, he's faced three top ten favorable opponents for running backs by justin fantasy points allowed. Ever since he kind of turned things around after Week three, the Bears have facing opponent who's ranked on average as roughly the tenth best matchup for running backs. Their schedule has been pretty good of late. Now. The hope is that Swift could come through and a good matchup against the Patriots. But he didn't. The whole offense didn't. He only scored seven and a half PPR points. That was his lowest output since Week three. So yeah, you're kind of selling low here. There's no doubt, and I'll be honest, his peripherals, they still don't look that bad. He actually handled ninety four percent of the team's running back rushes in Week ten. The reason I have him as a cell is because their upcoming schedule it's scary. Four of their next six games are against the Vikings and Lions. Minnesota's the third toughest matchup for running backs right now and a justph fantasy points allowed. Detroit's the fifth toughest one. Did you see what Joe Mixon did on the ground against the Lions on Sunday night? If DeAndre Swift doesn't see work through the air, he could be doomed in the end. Bears running backs have the toughest remaining schedule in the league right now and in the fantasy playoffs, they do have one game against the Vikings and one game against the Lions. Even if a change does come offensively, this schedule is just not appealing enough for me. This isn't doing it for me. You may be able to sell him this week before those Minnesota and Detroit matchups start to hit, add cam Makers. Speaking of Minnesota, Aaron Jones is a little bit banged up with a ribs injury. But thankfully it doesn't sound like he's gonna miss this weekend's game. But there's always a chance. We never know when we're talking early in the week, so it can't hurt to try to add cam Makers off the waiver wire. He's been operating as the clear cut RB two in Minnesota over the last couple of weeks. He said snapshares of twenty three percent, twenty nine percent. So if Jones misses any time, I would anticipate cam Makers being the one A in that backfield, and then ty Chandler would be the one B add Russell Wilson. So look, there's no doubt in my mind that Russell Wilson is beating math a little bit right now. He's a seven point one percent touchdown right that's not very sustainable. But he gets Baltimore this week. Now. You may be a little bit scared that this game isn't super high scoring, because after all, it's the Steelers in Ravens, But Baltimore's secondary has been such a good target for fantasy purposes. On the year, only two teams have allowed more adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Ravens have. Quarterbacks facing Baltimore have seen a boost in well over seventy passing yards versus their season long averages. That's by far the highest adjusted passing yards allowed mark in the league. So Wilson, who's rostered in just twenty two percent of Yahoo leagues, he's a good streamer. Add the green Bay Packers defense. So if the Texans are available on your waiver wire, they get Dallas. I think that they're an obvious ad. You could even look at the Saints and the Dolphins too, But the Packers are out there in a lot of leagues because they were on a bye this week and they're six and a half point favorites against the Bears Chicago, as we know, they're struggling offensively. They've allowed fifteen sacks over their last two games. Now, Green Bay they're below average at getting to the quarterback, at least in terms of pressure rate. But if you look at Chicago's last two opponents, it's been Arizona and New England. Their pressure rates are actually worse than Green Bay's. Things can change in Chicago, but on paper, this is a really good spot for the Packers defense. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere. Podcast can be found the Follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. I'm also on Blue Sky Now which is also at Late Round QB, so check that out. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk tomorrow with the Weekly Ten Trends episode h