353: NFL Combine Winners and Losers

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Speaker 1: This is the labor of podcast with your host, JJ zacher Resa. J J zacher Resa, what's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharyesen, the editor in chief at fandel and at number five dot com. And this is episode three hundred and fifty three of the Late Round podcast and many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. So over the last two weeks, I've walked through what my prospect models look at with the wide receiver and running back positions, and I've talked about a lot of players that the model seems to like and dislike. Now, if you haven't heard those episodes, they were published over the last couple of weeks, you should easily be able to find them wherever you're listening to this podcast. One of the things that I've stated a few times now is that the models don't really care about what these players do with the combine in putting forty times at wide receiver, even height and weight adjusted forty times doesn't improve the model's success at all. Some thresholds are necessary at both positions, but generally speaking, if a wide receiver or running back is testing like a suburban dad, chances are that player wasn't that good to begin with. Now. Like I've also said in the last couple of shows, draft capital is important. Where a player gets selected matters. It matters more running back than it as a wide receiver, but having that as an input into the model helps things a lot, and I think it's for two main reasons. The first one being that players who get drafted early will likely get first crack at finding the field, an opportunity drives fantasy football. The second one is that there's just sort of an embedded evaluation a draft capital. If a team really likes a player and they take that player with a twentieth overall pick, then chances are that player's good. A team has professional scouts looking at these guys, there's an inherent film evaluation that goes into draft capital. I also think the draft capital could be a reason that the combine doesn't really matter with my model, because if teams are utilizing those numbers in some way, then it's going to be reflected in draft capital already if teams care about the athletic testing, which that's a separate point to argue, but I think that we can agree that at least some teams or all teams care about the combine and the athletic testing to a degree. But if they care about it, then we should too because it could impact draft capital. So today my plan is to look at how this year's wide receiver and running back draft classes performed at the Combine. We'll look at some risers and follers, some winners and some losers, and it'll be fun. Before doing that, I wanted to remind you guys about Fandels make the Cut promo that's happening right now. We're close to Golf's first major, so Fandels rewarding fans who make the cut in the tournaments. Just finish in the top fifty percent of users in a weekly streak eligible contest, and your make the Cut streak continues. Best of all, you don't need to worry about missing a week. Your streak stays alive until you fail to finish in the top fifty percent. For more details, vis at fandle dot com or download the Fandel app today. Eligibility restrictions apply now. Like I've said over the last couple of weeks, this is a good class for both running backs and wide receivers. There's a ton of depth at both positions, so naturally they're going to be a lot more winners than losers stemming from the combine. But let's kick things off at running back and talk about some winners. To me, there were two clear winners at the position. One was Jonathan Taylor and the other one was aj Dillon. I mentioned Taylor as my RB one entering the combine, and that definitely has not changed. He ran a four to three to nine, which that alone is one of the better times you're gonna find at the running back position. But his speed score, which is just a formula where you adjust a player's forty times for weight, his speed score was almost one hundred and twenty two. For reference, Saquon Barkley's was one hundred and twenty four. I actually think that Taylor is that kind of prospect. He's a Saquon Barkley type prospect. He can be that good. He checks every single box. The only box he won't check is going second overall in the draft to a team who shouldn't have been drafting a running back second overall. But if you have the one oh one in rookie drafts this year, Jonathan Taylor should be it. Unless you're in a super flex league. Even in Superflex you can make that argument. Now draft capital will still matter, of course, but that's where things are at right now. Outside of Taylor, I think an obvious winner is AJ Dillon. Dylan's a pretty volatile prospect in my eyes. He's this big body dude who had a really good yards per team play average during his final season. I talked about that last week on The Running Back Show, and his reception share was actually not terrible at eight percent. That's part of the reason that I don't think a comp of Andre Williams makes a ton of sense for AJ Dillon. Andre Williams, if you guys remember, he went to Boston College as well, and he dominated there. He crushed in the yards per team play category, and he was and is a bigger bodied player just like AJ Dillon. The difference is that Dylan not only is bigger and he tested better as an athlete, but Dylan had some semblance of a receiving profile. Andre Williams caught ten total passes at Boston College, including zero zero his senior year. He had three hundred and fifty five rush attempts and zero receptions. His final season, Dylan had thirteen receptions on one of the most run heavy teams in the country. That's why his reception share isn't all that bad. I think he's a superior player and this combine helped show his athleticism at an insane two hundred and forty seven pound weight. I also think that cam Akers is walking away from this combine as a winner. From a production standpoint, he's one of the most well rounded backs in the class. And then he weighed in at two hundred and seventeen pounds. He had a strong BMI, and he tested in the ninetieth percentile and speed score, all while doing well in the vertical and broad jump. So I think Akers, while he's not as good as Jonathan Taylor, I do think he'll be in the discussion with that elite tier of running backs this year. And lastly, there's Eno. Benjamin. Eno didn't necessarily test amazingly well. He had a pretty average, maybe slightly below average speed score, but the key for him was the weigh in at the Senior Bowl. He was evidently one hundred and ninety five pounds, which meant teams with probably typecast him as being more of a third down back because in college he was a dynamic pass catcher. He had an eighteen percent reception share last year, and as I told you guys a couple of weeks ago, he had one of the best stats scores in my model from this year's class. But the problem was how are team's going to view him? But at the combine he weighed twelve pounds more than he did the Senior Bowl. I'm sure he was peeing a lot after that way in happened, But two hundred and seven pounds gives a much different outlook than one hundred and ninety five pounds at running back, So it's hard to say what he is and who he is, but I think it's a good thing that he weighed in heavier at the combine. There's really only one loser at running back that I want to talk about on today's show, and that's Zack Moss. He ran just a four six five forty, but he apparently had a hamstring injury. A four six five isn't fast, though, and it's caused a lot of people to storm Twitter with a lot of takes about Zack Moss. Now, first off, like I said at the top, it's hard to find a lot of signal with forty yard dash times, you really want these guys that hit a threshold, and that threshold is generally at a four to seven forty and that's before you adjust for weight. So Moss actually cleared that, and if there's really a hamstring injury, then he cleared it despite the injury. But I do think that this could cause his draft capital to drop, and I do think it makes it a lot easier to play someone like Cam Akers ahead of Zach Moss. But I'm not totally worried and concerned about Moss. I do think that we've probably got to be a little bit more cognizant of landing spot than some of the other top guys. But his production profile is strong, and even with that four to six y five, it's not like his speed score is absolute trash. He weighed in at two hundred and twenty three pounds, his speed score is almost in the fiftieth percentile, and that speed score was still better than other highly touted running backs in this year's class. So Moss is a loser from the combine. I think we should move him down a tier, but I don't think that means that we're avoiding him, especially if this injury is real. Now I'm going to transition to wide receiver by talking about a player who could realistically play either position at the NFL level, and that's Antonio Gibson. He tested with the wide receivers, but teams may just want to use him as a running back. He's another one of those hybrid players coming out of Memphis. We saw that to a degree with Tony Pollard last year, and Tony Pollard looked good in the NFL, but Gibson wasn't used as much as Pollard was. Even still, he was better than Pollard in two of the three main production metrics that my running back model looks at, and Gibson is an elite athlete. He weighed at two hundred and twenty eight pounds, which is about eighteen pounds heavier than Pollard, and he ran a four to three nine forty. His speed score is one of the best in the class, is one of the best you're gonna find, basically as a freak. The obvious red flag to his profiles that he didn't have a whole lot of volume at the college level, but he at least was incredibly efficient when he did touch the football, so all that combined means that if he finds a creative enough coach at the NFL level, I'm very very interested. I think Gibson got himself a lot of money through the combine this week. Now entering the combine, and this didn't really change, But entering the combine, my model really liked LSU's Justin Jefferson. He was a top five wide receiver in the model after really crushing all three production metrics that I look at. If you guys want to hear more about what those metrics are and what the model looks at, that's what's in the wide receiver episode from a couple of weeks ago. But Jefferson then came in with a decent enough size profile and he ran a four four to three That was one of the bigger surprises at the combine. So we may see him rise up draft boards, which is nice because it all coincides with a strong production profile. To me, Jefferson is a top five wide out in the class right now, or he's at least in the conversation now. I could talk about Henry Ruggs here, of course, but we all knew that he was gonna run fast. Henry Ruggs is fast breaking news and said, I think focusing on Denzel Mims and Chase Claypole makes more sense. Unlike Jefferson, neither Claypole or Mims stood out in my model going into the combine. They actually had the exact same stat scorer, and that stat score was pretty average, but they both tested really well. Claypole is massive, and he tested like a freak, like one of the freakiest athletes that we've ever seen. But like I said, that stat score was just average, and it's emotionally hard to separate what we just saw from a Notre Dame pass catcher last year in Miles Boykin. Boykin also tested as a freak athlete, and he came from a situation where he didn't have the best production. Where I think Claypole is different is that some people wanted him to play tight end because he's just a bigger dude. So there's some upside in that hybrid type of role that he may be able to play. I just wanted to at least make note that his college production was kind of average, but he is an amazing athlete. And then with both of those players, with both Claypool and Mims, neither of them were early declares. You did have nice production from Mims during his sophomore year, though, and that helped him have a stronger breakout age. That's the main reason to favor Mims and to like Mims. But Mims also crushed the agility drills you rarely see players do as well as he did consistently across the board at the combine and not have good draft capital. Both guys could play different roles at the next level, and they will play different roles at the next level, but Mims is the one who crushed the combine who I think could have more of a fantasy impact at the next level. I think he's going to be a second rounder when it's all said and done. Two guys I want to talk about on the negative side are two players who I like quite a bit. The first is Tyler Johnson. His production profiles otherworldly. His stat score is one of the best of my model, not just for this year either, but ever, and he has an elite breakout age to go along with it. But we've continued to hear that he's not gonna go as high in the draft as US analytical people want him to go, and he hurt his draft stock by not participating at the combine. Here's my fear with Tyler Johnson. The fantasy community likes him because the fantasy community is largely made up of people who analyze things through data, even if it's not as widespread as it could be. Fantasy analysts are much more data driven than the typical person analyzing the draft because fantasy is a numbers driven game. So you'll see players like Tyler Johnson get a lot of love and have a high ADP before the NFL Draft happens. And even if and when that player like Tyler Johnson goes in the fifth or the sixth round, their ADP doesn't suffer as much as it should. Like if Tyler Johnson goes in round six in this year's draft class and this year's great draft class, I don't know how you can just taking him with a top two round pick, but we've continuously seen him go in that area of mock drafts. So his draft stock falling, whether it's through buzz or through his not participating at the combine, that's worrisome. As much as I want to like him, it's just really hard to go all in. Laviskus Channault is the other dude who I want to talk about here. He had really good production during his sophomore year in twenty eighteen, and that dipped a little bit in twenty nineteen. According to Pro Football Focus, we saw him take fewer slot snaps this past year that could have contributed to all that, but he was still good production wise, and in my model. Unfortunately, you've got real injury concerns that could push him down in the draft, and he ran a four five eight forty at the combine apparently because of a core injury. Now, with that being said, similar to Zach Moss, let's not overstate things here, his height adjusted speed score was still fine. I think Chanault has a chance to make a Deebo Samuel like impact right away if he's healthy, and actually his height adjusted speed score was almost identical to Deebo Samuel's. He's just a beef yer dude. We'll see how the medicals impaction Al's draft stock, but right now I'd prefer him and his bad combine to Tyler Johnson and his lack of combine altogether. By far. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone, I'll talk to you later in the week with the weekly Mailbag show.