AvTalk Episode 340: Four engines for podcast

AVT 340 Transcript
EPISODE 340
[EPISODE]
[0:00:08] IP: Hello and welcome to episode 340 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here, as always
with –
[0:00:16] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Hello, Ian. How are you?
[0:00:18] IP: I'm well, Jason. Welcome to episode 340.
[0:00:22] JR: The catch all for the Airbus A340 family, because we just haven't penciled in
which version of the 340 we're going to operate yet, so we're just going to tell passengers, it'll be
a 340 of some sort.
[0:00:34] IP: It'll be a 340.
[0:00:34] JR: Could be something fun, like the 200. It could be something terrible, like the 300.
It could be the 500. Rare one.
[0:00:43] IP: There we go. We're going ultra-long-haul.
[0:00:46] JR: I miss those.
[0:00:47] IP: We'll figure that out over the next couple of weeks and decide on which one we're
really going to think is the special one.
[0:00:55] JR: This is actually how airlines work.
[0:00:56] IP: This is true. We have a very busy week to talk about this week, unfortunately.
Some of this stuff is good and interesting and moving in the right direction. Other things –
[0:01:08] JR: It's only mostly bad. There's still some good.
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[0:01:12] IP: Yeah, there's still some good. Let's start in your backyard, LaGuardia Airport.
[0:01:21] JR: A place where only good things happen.
[0:01:24] IP: Yes, as everyone knows, only good things happen at LaGuardia. This week, or
late last week after we recorded, two Endeavor Air CRJ-900s operating on behalf of Delta
Connection, decided that they were going to fuse metal at speeds low enough to, thankfully, not
cause any serious injuries, but fast enough to make a grinding, crunching sound.
[0:01:54] JR: And depart some critical aircraft parts on the taxiways, LaGuardia. Man, you got
to feel for the people at Delta tech ops, who just after about a year against all odds, just put a
CRJ, was it 900, I think, back in the air after so long after the tail section got knocked off of the
aircraft. They finally got it back in service. Job well done. It's back in revenue service.
[0:02:22] IP: This will be easy.
[0:02:23] JR: Yeah, just two more. Why not double it? You think you could do it once? Fine.
We'll double it.
[0:02:28] IP: All you need is a new wing and a new –
[0:02:33] JR: Flight deck, probably?
[0:02:34] IP: - front of plane. Front of plane. Yeah. Nose, flight deck, gear, maybe. Who knows?
What happened was the arriving aircraft, flight 5047 had arrived from Charlotte and was taxiing
to the gate, while 5155 was departing. 5155 was instructed to taxi and give way to the company
at mic. Well, they didn't give way. At the very last second, they tried to avoid the collision. I will
give them that. You can click the link in the show notes for the ADS-B data and for the video that
became available earlier this week, showing exactly how the two aircraft collided. 5155 did not
give way and indeed impacted with its right wing, the nose and windscreen of 5047.
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Thankfully, there were no serious injuries. A flight attendant on 5155 suffered minor injuries and
received some medical attention, but no one was seriously injured. That's the good news. The
bad news is that this happened, and it shouldn't have.
[0:03:57] JR: I guess, they just didn't see them coming. They were perpendicular to each other.
If you say to Endeavor, give way to company, well, half the aircraft at any given moment at
LaGuardia are Endeavor CRJ-900s, so wouldn't be shocking to me to hear that they mistook
one for the other at a different, incorrect taxiway. Man, they gave it a shot at that last second to
avoid. They went hard left and it just wasn't quite enough.
[0:04:26] IP: We'll wait and see what the NTSB report has to offer by way of, here's what
happened. I'm sure there's a very clear chain of events, and something happened on the flight
deck and then they realized all of a sudden, “Oh, no. There's a plane there.”
[0:04:47] JR: Whoops.
[0:04:49] IP: This was not, as far as we know, an air traffic control issue. That's not to say that
there aren't a whole host of air traffic control issues happening throughout the US this week. As
the federal government funding has lapsed, that includes funding for air traffic controller
salaries. Last time, the government shut down, air traffic controllers may have engaged in a
coordinated pattern of calling out sick.
[0:05:19] JR: You can't prove anything. We all know what happened. We all know what
happened.
[0:05:24] IP: May have. I'm going to couch this, because we don't know exactly if they used
carrier pigeons to coordinate, or what. But it's accepted common knowledge that the last
shutdown was ended by the air traffic controllers going, “Okay, fine. If you're not going to pay us,
we're not going to work.” That led to Congress getting back into Washington rather quickly and
coming up with a deal. This time is different.
[0:05:52] JR: Go on. How is it different?
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[0:05:54] IP: Well, and this is both my understanding of the situation and listening to statements
from members of Congress throughout this past week, saying that this time is different, because
the two sides are both further apart, not really talking.
[0:06:15] JR: Yes. Last time we went about this, Ian said, air traffic controllers, basically, more
or less, their actions brought the couple week long shutdown at that point to an end just by
making travel for Congress members. Really awful, which is it doesn't take a whole lot of people
on the ATC side to make that happen. Just a couple sick outs. Suddenly, you've got an entire
airport that has no air traffic controllers. We'll get to that in a moment. So far, well, the impact’s
haven't been huge. I think yesterday, Tuesday, the 7th, there were a pretty good list of delay
triggers due to ATC staffing, all the way from Dallas to the North Atlantic tracks being reduced.
But nothing really that has ground air traffic to a halt.
Like you said, this time it doesn't feel like even a coordinated action by air traffic control is going
to have any impact, because both sides are, I don't want to say they're so far apart, but nobody
seems to be moving in any particular direction in any realistic fashion. We're just all stuck and a
long for the ride.
[0:07:30] IP: As users of the national airspace system, what can we expect? Well, in certain
cases, you can expect ATC zero.
[0:07:39] JR: Nothing.
[0:07:41] IP: Yeah, you can expect nothing. You can expect no air traffic controllers at certain
facilities at certain times. Earlier this week at Burbank, the tower was closed. Aircraft were
coordinating with SoCal departure and each other on CTAF. As has been pointed out in a
number of places, there are more non-towered airports in the US than there are airports the rest
of the world.
[0:08:11] JR: But not of the size of Burbank. Burbank is not a small airport. Burbank is huge.
[0:08:19] IP: I was just about to admonish people for making a false equivalency. My point here
is the point that Jason just made. Yeah, there are a lot of untowered airports. Yes, pilots are
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supposed to know how to deal with that. That's part of the training to become any pilot. But
that's not generally what happens at very large airports with multiple runways, multiple taxiways,
and taxiways that cross runways.
[0:08:49] JR: And some gates at the terminal that when you push back, you're basically on the
runway. Burbank is not a huge airport land-wise. It's like Midway in Chicago, where there's
neighborhoods on all sides, even a little cemetery. If you push back from the very southern
gates, if you go slightly too far, you are on runway 33, which is for an airport that doesn't have
air traffic controllers monitoring what's happening on the ground, very bad. That's a technical
term, by the way. Very, very bad.
[0:09:20] IP: We'll look up the technical documentation on that. The situation of Burbank led to
delays, because when you don't have air traffic control, monitoring the situation on the ground,
that increases the necessary safety margins, which slows down the number of movements
available to the airport in each hour. It's not to say that anything ground to a halt yet, but they
definitely incurred delays. Delays have also been happening at places like Chicago O'Hare due
to staffing, the Philadelphia Tracon, which has had staffing issues as long as we can remember
at this point, so flights coming into Newark and in that particular area, as well as Denver and
multiple areas in Florida, among others. Lots of staffing triggers.
A lot of these are not new. Some of them are worse than normal. Some of them are new. A lot of
them are just the staffing triggers that the system has been dealing with for years, which is not
to say that they're great.
[0:10:36] JR: No. As a frequent flyer here in the New York area, I would just like to welcome the
rest of the country to the party. Take a seat. It's going to get bumpy.
[0:10:44] IP: The FAA for its part has said, “Check with your airline to see how your flight is
being impacted by any situation.” Things are running normal-ish for now, but they've also issued
a very interesting reminder to firefighters who work at airports. Jason, what's that all about?
[0:11:10] JR: Firefighters at airports are referenced as aircraft, rescue, and firefighting units.
The FAA would like to re-emphasize that if the air traffic control facility has an unplanned, or
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immediate closure during normal hours of operation, which is what happened at Burbank, they
would like to remind airport operators that they must have contingency procedures for their
ARFF units to monitor frequencies being used by air carriers. That basically means, hey, airport,
there might not be anyone in your FAA tower to let you know that there is some emergency
airplane on fire, or some sort of aircraft with an emergency coming in, anything from run-of-the-
mill emergencies to actual plane on fire. You need to monitor what's going on at your airport,
because we're not going to be there to push the crash button to tell you something is
happening.
A shocking memo, but at the same time, not shocking. I feel like, if it was put out there, it's
probably a reminder, but they're probably putting that reminder out, because maybe that didn't
happen at Burbank. Maybe that didn't happen somewhere else. I don't know, but it's a good
reminder of the intricacies and difficulty of operating an airport of the size of Burbank without an
FAA tower operating, really ratchets up the level of attention the airport operator itself has to
give to its own facility for stuff it normally would have nothing to do with, or at least nothing
directly. It's not like if the ARFF team saw a plane burst into flames and be like, “Well, we're
going to get that call eventually. I'm going to stay here and wait for it.” No. Now it's their job to
notice that that's happening and listen to the radio and react to it.
[0:12:53] IP: As part of the preparation for my daily life, but especially the podcast this week, we
were looking through all the notices about staffing triggers and things like that. It's worth
mentioning that you can look this up, too. If you go to fly.faa.gov, you can see the National
Airspace, they call it the National Airspace System Status, and it lists all of the airport and in-
route events that are happening that affect normal scheduled service. Right now, there's a delay
at Philadelphia, because an aircraft has a flat tire. That's at the airport. San Francisco has fog.
Surprise, surprise.
We didn't talk about this one a couple weeks ago, but as we were looking through this, I was
reminded, Florida airports, specifically Daytona Beach and Palm Beach, are closed to aircraft
that are equipped with weather modification, or geoengineering equipment, unless they have
prior permission. Now, Daytona Beach, you have to get a 48-hour PPR. At PBI, you only have
24 hours in advance, if you want to modify the weather.
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[0:14:06] JR: Fort Lauderdale as well is only 24 hours. If you want to fly your aircraft equipped
with weather modification, or geoengineering equipment, you only need half as much advanced
notice at the major airports, Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale. So painful as someone that is not
brain dead to have to look through these NOTAMs, of which there are so many, and see this
nonsense. I was going to use a stronger word –
[0:14:31] IP: I appreciate that.
[0:14:31] JR: - and then we’re going to have to bleep out, but I'll spare him. Didn’t know and
having to do that, but it is so unbelievably stupid, but so typical Florida to have to put an airport
closed to aircraft equipped with weather modification, or geoengineering equipment, because
they truly do think down there that contrails are actually death. That they’re little clouds of death
and it's intentional and everyone's going to die because of it. These are the people that Florida
have elected to represent them. As a gift to the rest of the country, we have to see it in the
NOTAM system, which is awesome.
[0:15:06] IP: It a little gift.
[0:15:07] JR: Thanks, guys. Love you, Florida. A great representation of just how bad the
NOTAM system is that this is something that's in there.
[0:15:16] IP: That is a good point. Let's leave the US for a moment and head over to India to
figure out what is going on, because there's a couple things that happened this week that at first
glance, you're like, “Oh, this is very bad.” But then, when you start digging into it, you're like,
“Wait. These things don't seem related at all.” Here's what happened first. An Air India flight on
its way to Birmingham in the UK, not Alabama.
[0:15:44] JR: That would be news.
[0:15:47] IP: Yeah. Just clarifying here. Landed with the Ram Air Turbine deployed. However,
there was no other fault with the airport.
[0:16:01] JR: Seems like the only fault was with Ram Air Turbine being deployed.
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[0:16:06] IP: Right. The engines were working, the electrical system’s working, the APU was
working. Everything was working fine, except the fact that the Ram Air Turbine deployed on
approach.
[0:16:17] JR: I don't know if I have ever heard of that happening before, either on its own
autonomously, or accidentally, because I'm pretty sure the Ram Air Turbine is a protected switch
under a little cover that you have to move the cover to even hit that button, so nobody's hitting
that button accidentally.
[0:16:36] IP: That has been clarified that the deployment was not triggered by an event that
should trigger the Ram Air Turbine deployment, and it was not triggered by the pilots. The
Federation of Indian Pilots wants India to order inspections of all 787s to see what's what. I can
see where they're coming from, as far as calling for that. But then, this is where things start to
go a little sideways for me. In statements to the press and in a letter, the Federation of Indian
Pilots starts to draw parallels between what happened with the nothing was wrong, but the RAT
deployed and Flight 171.
[0:17:26] JR: Yeah. You definitely start to lose people there, because that –
[0:17:31] IP: From the preliminary report that was issued says, the engines stopped, because
the switches were moved to cut off and the APU wasn't on, so the RAT deployed, which is the
expected process for deployment of the Ram Air Turbine.
[0:17:52] JR: Which is everything you want to have happen. I don't like making the correlations
there. I can understand why they would want to be doing it just to raise attention to this. If the
Ram Air Turbine on a 787 is deploying, I don't know where for no reason, I would definitely want
that investigated at my airline, too, because that's concerning for all sorts of reasons. I guess, if
they want to tie it to AI 171 just to speed things along to get attention to it, I get it. But man,
that's weird.
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[0:18:24] IP: Jason, you're giving folks the benefit of the doubt. I take more a bit slightly more
jaded view of the situation here, given the discussion around the role of the pilots, or not, during
the events of Flight 171. My take on this is it's a pushback against the preliminary report.
[0:18:48] JR: Pitting it on pilots. Yeah.
[0:18:49] IP: Yeah. I take a slightly more jaded view than Jason's initial pass. The whole thing
seems very strange to me that they would try and draw that distinction. It's not even the same
thing. What's interesting to me is that when reached for comment, Boeing said, “Go talk to Air
India.”
[0:19:09] JR: That's a very weird response.
[0:19:12] IP: I'm not sure if this, again, Jason, we don't know if this has happened with Air India
before, if this would lead to an un-commanded deployment of the Ram Air turbine without any
other things happening. It's unclear to me where this is leading, as the Indian DGCA hasn't said
much yet about this. The aircraft was cleared to fly the following day. The return flight was
canceled. Then the aircraft went back to India the following day and has been flying since. I'm
not sure where this heads from here, but we're going to keep an eye on it.
[0:19:55] JR: Very, very strange.
[0:19:57] IP: If you're in the market for A320neos, Spirit, and by extension, Spirit’s lessors have
a deal for you. In addition to the 27 leases that Spirit plans on rejecting, that are leased from
AerCap, they are also planning on getting rid of 87 additional aircraft.
[0:20:22] JR: Is there going to be anything left when all is said and done here?
[0:20:26] IP: Yes. There will be A320 CEOs and A321 CEOs left at Spirit. With the 87 additional
lease rejections across multiple lessors, that takes Spirit in half as far as the fleet goes, and it
removes the entire A320neo family fleet from the airline by the end of October.
[0:20:52] JR: Even the 321neo?
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[0:20:54] IP: Every single neo aircraft.
[0:20:59] JR: That's a lot. I think we're still trying to piece together exactly what's happening,
because Cranky Flier, Brett Snyder, does have a piece together, I guess, you would call it bar
chart that does show them keeping some neos by assuming leases and service. I guess, that
short term and in the long term, they're all gone.
[0:21:18] IP: It takes the, I think the direct leases go away by the end of October. Then I think
the wind down is maybe the remaining few. I'm not sure exactly, but that would be good to see
how long those stick around. Because it seems the plan now is to just go A320 CEO.
[0:21:37] JR: Yeah. The plan is to shrink down to profitability. This would bring them down to
about 100 aircraft from a peak of way more than that. If you can recall a time an airliner, many
companies in general, non-aviation, have shrunk to survive, we would like to hear it, because
many before Spirit have tried it. As far as I'm aware, none have succeeded in tricking –
[0:22:02] IP: Not in the long run.
[0:22:05] JR: No. So, yikes. It is not great times for Spirit, but great times if you're looking for a
hot, hot, hot deal on an A320 family aircraft. Well, they may not all work. A good chunk of them
don't have working engines, but you can fix that.
[0:22:23] IP: Well, here's what might work. According to Frontier’s Barry Biffle. He says, “Hey,
US government, give ultra-low-cost carriers anti-trust immunity and let us compete against the
big airlines.”
[0:22:40] JR: No, absolutely not. Get out of here.
[0:22:44] IP: That was his pitch to senators this week. I have to say, it's an interesting one. I'm
not sure it solves the problem. The argument here is that it's one that is often heard, you let
them get big, but you won't let us get big. Now we can't compete, because they're so big. He's
not wrong. In that the diagnosis, I don't think is wrong. I don't think anti-trust immunity for for
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ultra-low-cost carriers is necessarily going to solve that issue. But it's an interesting idea. I like
that he's pushing that one around.
[0:23:25] JR: I mean, there's no harm in proposing it. On this podcast, we like to advocate, at
least I do, for no anti-trust immunity for any airline at any point, let alone adding low cost carriers
just because the big ones have it. No. Get rid of the anti-trust immunity for the big airlines, which
don't have anti-trust immunity amongst each other within the US. They have anti-trust immunity
with other airlines from overseas, except if your Delta and they're in Mexico. Can't have that
anymore. To have antitrust immunity just to compete against airlines in the US that don't have it
themselves domestically, that's crazy.
[0:24:05] IP: I don't think it's crazy. I don't think it's a necessarily a good idea. I don't think it's
crazy. I see where he’s coming from.
[0:24:11] JR: I mean, it's not crazy to ask for it, because you don't get if you don't ask, but it
doesn't mean I have to not hate it.
[0:24:18] IP: You're allowed to hate it, Jason. In airframer news, the A320 family has surpassed
the 737 family in terms of deliveries. Total deliveries.
[0:24:34] JR: It was bound to happen at some point, given the rate of Airbus deliveries and the
lack of rates of Boeing deliveries.
[0:24:40] IP: Yeah. More than 12,000 and we're taking over at 12,000, I believe it's 608 was the
magic number here. Good for them. Congratulations, Airbus. We will look forward to renewed
competition between the two, as the rate of 737 production also begins to increase, perhaps,
perhaps by the end of this month, Jason. We could see a rate increase before the end of the
year.
[0:25:14] JR: I heard it's even possible that we have seen the little scene, 737 MAX 7 start to
do things and move around and potentially progress in the certification process. Few remember
that the MAX 7 is even a thing. I can't even recall who ordered that.
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[0:25:33] IP: A few were still wanted to be.
[0:25:36] JR: Yeah. But it's possible that things are happening.
[0:25:38] IP: I hope so. I really hope so. This is deliveries. But the A320 family long overtook the
737 family in terms of operational numbers. Early 2010s, the A320 family has been operating
more flights per month than the 737 family. The 737 family has been – it's older, but obviously,
more aircraft have been retired than are currently operational. Jason, how many flights did the
A320 family operate last month? September 2025.
[0:26:15] JR: How many are in service again?
[0:26:17] IP: Oh, don't make me look up numbers that I don't have –
[0:26:19] JR: See, I turned it on you.
[0:26:20] IP: - on top of my head. Take a stab at it. Did you want multiple choice? Would that
make it a lot easier?
[0:26:26] JR: Let's go with multiple choice. That would make it easier. But give me a broad
range.
[0:26:30] IP: Okay, fine. A broad range. Well, let's go with between 800,000 and 1 million.
Between 1 million and 1.2 million, or between 1.2 million and more.
[0:26:45] JR: 1.2 million and more. Let’s go to the top of the range.
[0:26:47] IP: Okay. Do you have a stab at a –
[0:26:49] JR: 1.575 million.
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[0:26:52] IP: Ooh. Close, close, but not quite yet. 1.4 million A320 family flights. That's all A320s
operating across the CO and Neo range. We know that that's more than the 737, but Jason,
how much more do you think?
[0:27:10] JR: 20%.
[0:27:11] IP: Don't make me do percentages.
[0:27:14] JR: Throwing it back at you again. If you're going to make me pick numbers, I'm going
to make you do math.
[0:27:19] IP: Just pick a number.
[0:27:24] JR: 1.1 million.
[0:27:25] IP: 1.1 million indeed. That's exactly right.
[0:27:27] JR: Really?
[0:27:28] IP: Yes.
[0:27:28] JR: Wow. Nailed it.
[0:27:31] IP: From 737-200s all the way on up to the MAX 9, Boeing 737s operated 1.1 million
flights last month.
[0:27:42] JR: Wow.
[0:27:42] IP: I'll figure out how to do it. Maybe I'll link to the chart somewhere on the blog, but I
put together a chart of 737 versus A320 flights from January of 2018 to the present. You'll never
guess what happens in March of 2020.
[0:28:01] JR: Number go down a whole lot.
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[0:28:03] IP: A whole lot. But it's also interesting to see the number of flights based on the MAX
groundings in 2019, where you see the tracking surge at the beginning, or near the fall of 2018,
where you start to see more and more flights operating and then the 737 –
[0:28:22] JR: And then not.
[0:28:24] IP: - not increase at the same rate. We'll put a link to that chart in the show notes.
Jason, I can exclusively reveal on this podcast and this podcast alone that Petchmo Air is
moving not only from elderly aircraft that we have operated for years and years and years, but
to the most modern wide body aircraft I can think of. We're purchasing two A350s.
[0:28:56] JR: Wow. Can I have one?
[0:28:57] IP: Yes, you can have one.
[0:28:58] JR: Fantastic. I'll pay you later.
[0:29:00] IP: We'll record all the episodes on our pairs of A350s. Elsewhere, undisclosed
airlines –
[0:29:08] JR: Our favorite.
[0:29:10] IP: - has purchased eight A350s. Those were the only orders that Airbus took in for
the month. I'm happy to have contributed to that.
[0:29:18] JR: Yes. All of two orders, and we don't know who they went to. That's eight
A350-900s on September 16th, and Petchmo Air, also known as some private customer they
don’t want to tell us, ordered another two A350-900 on September 8th. That was it for the
entirety of September for Airbus. A quiet month and a very private month, but a good month for
the A350. Ten orders for the A350 –
[0:29:45] IP: That's not nothing at all.
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[0:29:46] JR: It’s not too shabby.
[0:29:47] IP: Though, it was not quite on the delivery front, Airbus delivered 73 aircraft, which
brings total year deliveries up to 507. 10 aircraft brings their order book up to 514 for the year.
Not a bad year so far.
[0:30:06] JR: All right. You know, things are, I guess, are looking up for Boeing?
[0:30:11] IP: A little bit.
[0:30:12] JR: A little bit. Yeah, we have some Boeing news.
[0:30:14] IP: Last week, we had Boeing news. The Wall Street Journal was reporting that
Boeing has shifted its focus, or begun shifting its focus to a new airplane. Boeing said, “Oh, I
don't think so.”
[0:30:29] JR: Hold on. We may be doing stuff behind closed doors, but we're not ready to talk
about a new airplane. Not yet.
[0:30:36] IP: Performing technology studies. They are investigating new technical solutions and
new methods of manufacturing. They are doing the groundwork. This is everything we talked
about last week, where we said, “Okay, but they're not ready to launch this plane yet, and they
won't be for a while, and they’re not”
[0:30:55] JR: And they're not.
[0:30:57] IP: They pushed back more forcefully.
[0:31:00] JR: Yes. They said, they called the report misleading. Yeah, I guess. I don't know. But
they are busy with the 777X, which Reuters says, is now delayed until 2027. Surprise, surprise.
I guess, some things are good. Some things are bad. But there's more on the Boeing news. The
most obvious news that was always going to happen, because it couldn't not happen, the EU
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has given tentative approval for Boeing to, I guess you would say, reincorporate Spirit
AeroSystems back into its own entity.
[0:31:34] IP: Yeah. They tried the thing where they weren't part of Boeing directly, and that
worked for a minute and then really didn't work for a while. Now, Spirit will, once again, be part
of Boeing, and the EU, which needed to provide approval for all that has given its tentative
blessing.
[0:31:53] JR: The end of the circular story here of Boeing cutting off its own arm for short-term
profits only to nearly bleed out and die and have to spend billions to get its arm and reattach it
back to its body is essentially what's happened here. Great job. I hope the short-term profits
were worth it for those who reaped the benefits, but it almost killed Boeing and Spirit in the
process. Good job, everyone.
[0:32:23] IP: Sure. Good job. Good job.
[0:32:26] JR: Yeah. Yeah.
[0:32:27] IP: All right, let's talk about roots, fleets, and some interesting paint schemes.
[0:32:35] JR: Paint.
[0:32:36] IP: Expected news, but now we finally have an official announcement of what's going
to be first. A few weeks ago, we talked about the fact that India and China had begun
discussions about resuming direct flights between the two countries. Those have been off since
2020. Those were a casualty of the pandemic and then geopolitical machinations prevented the
resumption of flights, right after the pandemic. But that will finally get the go ahead on the 26th of
October. Indigo will operate from Kolkata to Guangzhou. That'll be the first route. They said that
they will expand from there. Indigo and Air India, as well as the Chinese big three, Air China,
China Southern, China Eastern previously operated flights pre-pandemic. One assumes that we
will get back to that state eventually as well.
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[0:33:31] JR: Man, what a ride this year. It's been good stuff. This is good news. We need good
news. This is good news.
[0:33:38] IP: Another big airline launch, kind of, sort of, Riyadh Air has said they're going to start
flights. That sounds really exciting, if you're Riyadh Air, I guess, until you find out that what they
mean is that they have slots at Heathrow that they need to use or lose. They're going to sell
family and friend discount tickets, operate the Oman Air 787 that they've leased, fly to Heathrow,
so that they can keep their slots and fly home. After they start taking delivery of the 787s that
they have an order from Boeing, then they'll start actually selling those tickets to people who
can buy them that aren't associated with them.
[0:34:20] JR: Yeah. Not quite a launch, but not a launch. If the public cannot buy tickets, it's not
a launch.
[0:34:29] IP: My favorite part of this was that the airline CEO said that this reaffirms their
commitment to launching by the end of 2025.
[0:34:40] JR: TikTok, I guess.
[0:34:42] IP: Just tell us that you need to use this – People will understand. We need to fly to
Heathrow, so that we can fly to Heathrow later. We get it.
[0:34:50] JR: I'm just looking now. They put a press release out and everything saying, Riyadh
Air announces inaugural London flights commencing October 26th and launch of groundbreaking
sphere loyalty program. Kindo of a kitchen sink press release here, but fulfilling its commitment
to commence operations in 2025, Saudi Arabia's new national carrier announces launch flights
to London, with Dubai to be added later. Don't know what the Dubai portion is about.
[0:35:16] IP: What the Dubai portion is, is the Dubai portion will be the Oman Air flight. The
Oman Air aircraft will shift to Dubai after they start taking delivery of their ordered 787s.
[0:35:30] JR: Oh. You know what? I love a good project name here. Apparently, this is an
important phase of pathway to perfect, which is apparently, its go to market plan pathway to
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perfect. If you're starting off operations, though, with panic flights to Heathrow, because you're
about to lose your slots, not sure that's perfect though.
[0:35:51] IP: But it's on the pathway chase.
[0:35:52] JR: Oh, that's right. It's right there in the name.
[0:35:55] IP: Last year around this time, United Airlines launched a slew of new routes, saying
that they were going to start flying to Nuuk in Greenland and Ulaanbaatar in Mongolia.
[0:36:07] JR: Kaohsiung in Taiwan, too. Can't forget that.
[0:36:11] IP: We have new route announcements this week from United Airlines, which I
assume are more exciting and even more far flung.
[0:36:18] JR: Yes.
[0:36:18] IP: What do you got for?
[0:36:19] JR: Earlier today, you and I and a couple of our friends in the group chat, we were
discussing, I mean, let's think about the crazy routes United announced last year. They were off
the chart, unexpected. No one would have expected it. We thought, where else can United
operate a 737 MAX 8 as far as possible out of Narita, without overlapping with its partners at
ANA? We came up with some interesting destinations, like Busan, South Korea, or Jeju. There's
no overlap there, but a lot of demand, or possibly some other Southeast Asian cities. We really
went down into the rabbit hole to come up with some routes. United didn't deliver on any of that
this year. Ian, have you seen the routes, or can I quiz you?
[0:37:09] IP: You can quiz me. I specifically did not look.
[0:37:11] JR: Okay. Well, I already spoiled that it's not that –
[0:37:15] IP: They're not going to Busan.
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[0:37:16] JR: They are not going to Busan. They are not going to Jeju. Take a couple guesses.
[0:37:20] IP: Are these international routes?
[0:37:21] JR: They are all international routes.
[0:37:23] IP: They're all international routes. I'm going to say, they added a frequency to
Haneda from somewhere.
[0:37:33] JR: Mm-mm.
[0:37:34] IP: No? Okay. Give me a hint here. I feel like I'm flailing.
[0:37:37] JR: Europe.
[0:37:38] IP: Did they do the Dubrovnik thing?
[0:37:40] JR: Nope. I think it's already a thing.
[0:37:41] IP: No? Okay, it was just –
[0:37:43] JR: Okay. What is interesting is that all the routes they announced last year, all nine of
them, I think, they are all coming back in 2026. Some of them earlier than previously, including
Nuuk, Greenland. Yeah, they're not really pulling out the super interesting stuff that they did last
year. We've got Croatia, which is, I guess, an interesting one. Though, I'm not sure if that's not
ever –
[0:38:03] IP: Wait. Where in Croatia?
[0:38:04] JR: Split.
[0:38:05] IP: Oh, okay. Split. I'll take split.
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[0:38:07] JR: It's interesting, on a 767-300ER from Newark. I believe, all these flights are from
Newark, because Newark is the center of the universe, of course.
[0:38:16] IP: Well, it's the most on-time airport.
[0:38:18] JR: Sure. Bari, Italy, again, with the 767. Glasgow, Scotland, which I'm pretty sure
United served pre-COVID, not all that long ago. That one is with a 737 MAX 8, unfortunately.
Yeah, not too fond of that one. Apparently, United also serves Edinburgh year-round, That's
something. It's an addition to Edinburgh, and Santiago de Compostela.
[0:38:48] IP: Compostela. All right. We're going on a pilgrimage.
[0:38:50] JR: Interesting, with a MAX 8 again for that one. That's interesting, but not as
shocking as Ulaanbaantar, Mongolia, or Kaohsiung, Taiwan. They are also adding Reykjavik to
the route map from Dulles. The other East Coast hub gets a little love, too, in there. Adding
Seoul, South Korea from Newark as well starting September 4th next year on a 787-9, which is
nice to see. There are no other US airlines from South Korea from the New York area, so that’s
nice.
[0:39:21] IP: That one is the most interesting to me.
[0:39:23] JR: Is it?
[0:39:23] IP: Yeah. The others seem fun, fine, sure, have fun. It's a great town? Who doesn't
love Glasgow? But that one's the most interesting to me, I think.
[0:39:32] JR: Yeah. I like that one as someone who is flying in just a month or two, New York to
Seoul. We are not lacking options, but more options are always nice.
[0:39:45] IP: More options are –
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[0:39:46] JR: Well, we're losing an option with Asiana being absorbed into Korean Air. We are
back to what we have today, status quo. But not the most exciting stuff from United, but not the
least exciting stuff we’ve seen.
[0:40:00] IP: They can't all be Mongolia.
[0:40:02] JR: If only. But we really were going on and on earlier thinking, what's the most
random place they could serve?
[0:40:10] IP: If we were in charge of network planning, I mean, they would be much more
exciting. Let's talk about some paint. We have a few new liveries that are worth mentioning.
JetBlue has a brand-new Puerto Rico, special living honoring Puerto Rico, N657JB. Jason, tell
me more, because this was a contest winner.
[0:40:35] JR: It was. Seven months ago, JetBlue put out three concept liveries that you could
vote on and pick, and they were all a livery to reflect the spirit and heritage of Puerto Rico.
Apparently, the latest one that they ended up picking the winner is a special livery celebrating
Isla del Bluencanto. I guess, that's a destination. Not quite sure. Really hard actually to see the
livery, because the picture JetBlue put out, its press release is about 18 pixels, which is not
great, because it –
[0:41:06] IP: Good thing we have jet photos.
[0:41:07] JR: That is a good thing that we have jet photos, because JetBlue has a tendency to
put these things into service before they actually announce them. There were probably pictures
on jet photos before JetBlue ever sent that out. But that is nice. I love a special livery contest.
[0:41:21] IP: Then there's N960JX, which is a “retro livery from JSX.” They did the same thing
JetBlue did.
[0:41:34] JR: Yes. JetBlue, they fabricated a retro livery, but here we have an even younger,
even less historic airline creating a fake retro livery. Ian, you posted a picture that was way more
interesting for this aircraft.
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[0:41:50] IP: I thought it was more interesting. This used to be, was it a Commute Air?
[0:41:56] JR: It was an –
[0:41:56] IP: ExpressJet.
[0:41:57] JR: ExpressJet E145.
[0:41:59] IP: That went to Carbondale in Southern Illinois and had all of the paint stripped off.
Somebody got a photo of the bare metal. That, to me, was a great look. I mean –
[0:42:14] JR: The only good E145.
[0:42:18] IP: I would just love to see that one, somebody flying that bare metal E145 around. All
right, let's close the show with some interesting things that have happened this week and last.
Jason, you flagged this one. I get it, but I just can't believe it happened.
[0:42:37] JR: Yeah, this is still happening. The flight is still in the air. It's landed very recently,
but we cannot verify any of the facts in this story that we have no reason to doubt them,
because we have checked the flight actually did divert. Apparently, Kashmir Hill on Blue Sky, K-
A-S-H-H-I-L-L on Blue Sky says, he was on the JetBlue flight transcon, going from California to
New York, I believe. Midway, they ended up having to divert to Denver. Apparently, the reason, I
quote, “Some dude is sitting in the exit row, who didn't pay the $155 fee and he refuses to move
back to his seat.” Interesting.
Apparently, he moved to an exit row seat that he did not pay for and the crew was having none
of that. Apparently, also couldn't process payment once they were already in the air for that seat.
This passenger seated in the exit row, refused to move, which is a safety hazard, because as
we all know, you have to agree to be in an exit row. You have to comply with crew instructions
and operate the door. If they doubted that this person was going to do that, they couldn't have
that person there. They also couldn't continue the flight, because you had someone in that seat
who refused to do that. They ended up having to divert to Denver, offload the passenger.
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Apparently, everyone was clapping and I don't know, things happened. They refueled and got
back on their way to New York. Hmm, that's a story.
[0:44:04] IP: Should be worth pointing out that the person relaying the story is a reporter for the
New York Times. The facts of the aircraft being diverted to Denver, we know that happened.
[0:44:15] JR: Yes. We have no reason to doubt that this is happening. All stories reported
secondhand like this, there's some degree of, he said, she said. But, huh, truly, this person
moved to a seat that they have to pay extra for and JetBlue is not able to take payment once
they're already in the air, as the poster says. Marty, contact your IT people, because you've got
some things to sort out if you can't take people's money once you're already in the air.
[0:44:40] IP: If this was a different airline.
[0:44:42] JR: I would say, that's nonsense.
[0:44:43] IP: I would say, that's nonsense however.
[0:44:45] JR: It being JetBlue, who historically has the IT infrastructure of a dinosaur checks
out.
[0:44:54] IP: This next one is an interesting bit, because what happened is the regulator said
the airline's aircraft don't work. Then they said, “Because the aircraft don't work, we're taking
your AOC.” This was Serene Air in Pakistan. They had a pair, or owned, I guess, a pair of
A330-200s and a 737-800. Those particular aircraft were declared unserviceable, even though
they had been flying up until the 29th of September. Well, the A330s had. The 737 flew from
Islamabad to Tianjin in China. One of the A330s was in Jeddah and is still there, and one made
it back to Karachi. The aircraft were flying, so either they were flying in an unsafe manner, or
they found something so bad, they were like, “Okay, you're done. Your planes are out of
commission and we're taking your AOC.”
[0:46:06] JR: Absurd that an airline that isn't PIA in Pakistan can't manage to survive and can't
do better than the absolutely miserable state-run airline. That's just wild. There should be so
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much easy pickings competition in that country. Apparently, Serene Air was just so horribly run
that they couldn't do even the bare minimum to stay alive.
[0:46:30] IP: We'll see if they can get their certificate back and get back in the air. But it sounds
maybe, maybe not?
[0:46:39] JR: No. Man, that country is just a pit of despair for all things aviation.
[0:46:44] IP: The commercial aviation in stream packs has just, it's a mess. It's a gigantic mess.
[0:46:50] JR: They need to push the reset button. Everyone that's there, just reset the whole
thing.
[0:46:55] IP: To close the show, this happened throughout 2023 and 2024. Now it's come to a
head, because the third-person charge has pled guilty. I'm referring to a Latvian national, who
has pled guilty to helping get aircraft parts to Russia. This person was working in Latvia on
behalf of Russian buyers, including the Russian state security service to get aircraft
components, including TCAS systems and other parts from the US through a variety of
intermediaries into Russia.
[0:47:36] JR: Madagascar wasn't involved in any way?
[0:47:39] IP: Madagascar was not involved. A variety of other countries were, let's see,
including, we have Germany, Laos, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Kazakhstan and
Kyrgyzstan, according to the US DOJ. This person has been extradited out of Latvia, brought to
the US, and has pled guilty.
[0:48:02] JR: Why is this funny?
[0:48:03] IP: Who cares about all that?
[0:48:03] JR: Yeah, I don't get it. Why are we talking about this?
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[0:48:06] IP: The most important thing to know here is that the name of the firm that was
illegally exporting aircraft components from Kansas to Russia –
[0:48:18] JR: Go on.
[0:48:19] IP: - was called KanRus.
[0:48:22] JR: Oh, like the first three letters of Kansas and the first three letters of Russia.
[0:48:26] IP: K-A-N-R-U-S.
[0:48:29] JR: Wow. Little on the nose there. It makes it a little bit too easy for investigators to
figure out what you're doing. Once they find the company, they go, “Aha, we got them.”
[0:48:38] IP: Did they just Google Kansas-Russia? They're like, “Oh, these guys.”
[0:48:44] JR: That's wild, because they picked a criminal enterprise, picked a name so befitting
of what they actually do. Whereas, if you go shopping on Amazon for literally anything, you're
buying stuff from a company called [Name inaudible 0:48:56], and that's okay. But here, you
have a criminal enterprise, illegally trading aircraft parts across the world to Russia, and it's
literally called KanRus Trading. I'm glad you brought that up. I have no response to that.
[0:49:11] IP: I got a good chuckle out of this one. I hope our dear listeners did as well. This has
been episode 340 of AvTalk. I am Ian Petchenik, here, as always with –
[0:49:24] JR: Jason Rabinowitz. Thanks for listening.
[END]
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