830: 15 Transactions for Week 10

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host JJ Zachertha Jake Zachers. What's up everyone, It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode eight hundred and thirty of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. Before we get into the transactions this week, I want to send another reminder about the Late Round Fantasy Football Patreon. With the Patreon, you get live stream Q and a's rest of season rankings and tiers, weekly rankings and tiers, a great discord community, and more. The rest of season rankings and tiers can be really helpful engaging how I'm valuing some of the players that I talk about on this specific episode. Each week, it's ten dollars a month for the main tier, and you can do it month to month if you'd like. I'm not trying to take all of your money, just trying to do what I do for a living. But check it all out over on Lateround dot com. Add Keaton Mitchell. So I talked about Keaton Mitchell on this show maybe three or four weeks ago. He finally had his big breakout performance in week nine. He saw his first work on the ground this season, carrying the ball nine times against the Seahawks, and he turned those nine carries into one hundred and thirty eight yards in a touchdown. Is that sustainable? No? Is it really really fun? Yes? In the end, Mitchell played just seventeen percent of Baltimore snaps in Week nine. His running back rush share thirty three point three percent. Nothing special. He only saw one target. If that kind of workload continues, Mitchell won't be very reliable in fantasy football. But if you want the glass half full, take it's this. Mitchell showed up when he finally got the chance, when he finally got some work on the ground, and it didn't really come in garbage time either. He was touching the ball in the second and third quarter, only two of his touches came in the fourth quarter. Now look the median outcome here, This Ravens backfield moving forward as a three headed monster. It was a two headed one with Gus Edwards and Justice Hill and now you got Keaton Mitchell in the mix. Mitchell's a really great change of pays back given his size and speed. But chances are most of his touchdowns they're gonna have to come from outside the ren zone, outside the goal line. Because that's Gus Edwards territory. Off the waiver wire, though, Let's just see what the Ravens do with Mitchell. He's the type of player who can be fantasy relevant on just a handful of touches, but there's gonna be a lot of volatility that comes with that. By Bjeon Robinson, I know, I know, I've been on Bjon Robinson the season and he hasn't really lived up to expectation. I get it you're probably frustrated that I'm even bringing him up again. But the way I do fantasy football analysis, I don't really care about the past. If I was wrong, I was wrong. If I was right, I was right. But what I'm trying to do is analyze right now, in the moment and moving forward, because that's what matters for you, guys. You're trying to win. Robinson was averaging seventeen point six pper points per game across his first four of the season. Things were looking pretty good. His running back rush shareper game at that time about fifty five percent. Now, that was a little bit low, but the hope is that he was going to get more and more work as the season progressed. The receiving volume was never a problem over his last four games, though we'll remove the Headache game here because that was sort of an anomaly. But over his last four games, Robinson's seen that running back rush share dipped to forty eight percent. His target share per game has gone from twenty one point two percent across his first four to twelve point six percent across his last four, and now, understandably so, people are panicking about Bjon Robinson. They're watching Tyler Algeer get rushing work, get a lot of rushing work, and more importantly, get goal line work. Tyler Algier has six goal line attempts this year. Bjeon Robinson has won. But I've got four reasons to still be optimistic about Bjon Robbins. The first one is we know that he's good. According to next Gen stats, Robinson is better than Tyler Algier this season and expected points added per rush, rushing yards over expected per rush, and success rate, Robinson's been adding a full yard over expected per carry. Algier has lost point four yards. Now. The second thing, there's contingent upside. If Tyler Algier gets hurt, Robinson would see an uptick and backfield share even if they would use more Cordero Patterson. The third reason to be optimistic the Falcons just lost a second straight game to a backup quarterback that might force some change. Lastly, though Atlanta's schedule is awesome. According to my adjusted Fantasy points allowed numbers, the Falcons have the second best running back schedule over the next four games, They've got the best one across the rest of the season, and in the Fantasy playoffs that's weeks fifteen through seventeen, they get the Panthers, Colts, and Bears. Those teams are currently top six matchups for running backs and adjusted fantasy points allowed. Of course, there's plenty of risk with a transaction like this. Look at the way that Arthur Smith is divvying up that backfield. And I know that some of you guys are gonna roll your eyes at the thought of me even talking about Bijon Robinson. Again, I get it. I understand if you just want to bypass this transaction. But the bottom line here is that we're playing for first place. There are still a lot of things working in Bijon Robinson's favor, and I can tell you right now there are a lot of Robinson managers who are really, really frustrated, So now might be a time to buy low sell Amari Cooper. In games where Deshaun Watson has thrown the ball more than five times, he left that game against Indianapolis back in Week seven after just five pass attempts. Amari Cooper is averaging eighteen point one PPR points per game in games without Deshaun Watson. That's essentially cut in half to nine point one now. Cooper's coming off a huge game against Arizona where he caught all five of his targets for one hundred and thirty nine yards in a touchdown. It's noteworthy that he faced the Cardinals because they've been one of the friendlier teams to wide receivers this year. Moving forward, things aren't as friendly. That's especially true if you've got your eyes to the fantasy playoffs. During those three weeks, Cleveland gets the Bears, Texans and Jets. The Jets pre Monday Night Football, they're the top team against wide receivers and adjustin fantasy points allowed, and the Texans, believe it or not, they're a fringe bottom ten. Matchup Championship Week though, is against the Jets that may be enough for you to come off of Cooper this week after this big, big performance, But if you'd rather hold, that's totally fine because I'm not sure that your league mates are going to understand that he's actually been a pretty good fantasy asset. With Deshaun Watson active. Add Josh Dobbs. Josh Dobbs was a top five quarterback in Week nine after being a Minnesota Viking for like six hours. He was amazing that whole game. Him coming into that game, what a story. He is so easy to root for, So why not get him on your fantasy roster Because on Sunday, Dobbs showed us what's made him a fantasy relevant quarterback this season. He ran the ball seven times for sixty six yards in a rushing touchdown that gave fantasy managers almost thirteen points via his legs alone. Now he has a strong supporting cast as long as Justin Jefferson returns, and he has one of the best quarterback schedules that you're gonna find across the league. There's a lot to like about Josh Dobbs moving forward by Brock Purdy. Now, another quarterback option to go after this week is Brock Perdy. The football world is definitely down on this San Francisco passing attack, look at how they played pre buy, but there's a legitimate chance that perty can be your starter in fantasy football for the next six weeks. In Week ten, the forty nine Ers get the Jacks. They've been the sixteenth best matchup for quarterbacks and adjusted fantasy points allowed this year. They're a totally average matchup. Then it's the Buccaneers who've been the fifteenth best matchup, the Seahawks, who'd been the ninth best, the Eagles, who'd been the second best, the Seahawks again, and then the Cardinals, who've been the fifth best. This transaction it plays alongside what I said last week about Brandon Nyuk that Brandon Nyuk was a bye. I think this whole San Francisco passing attack to some degree is also a bye. Add Zay Jones. So, Jay Jones has been dealing with this knee injury that's kept him out since Week five. According to my friend doctor Edwin Porras, if Jones doesn't practice this week, we could be looking at another one or two weeks of him being sidelined. But there's a possibility that with Jacksonville's buy Jones is ready to go. We have to see if that's the case. Hypothetically, if Jay Jones can go, he is a chance to be fantasy relevant. He's averaged a target sh per game rate about seventeen percent this season during his limited time and Jacksonville, despite their mediocre rest of season schedule for wide receivers, it's a top five to one in the short term over the next month or so. Just keep an eye on that practice report right now. It's being reported that it could be day to day, but he also might go on ir There's a wide range of outcomes for Zay Jones. Hold Devonte Smith. Davonte Smith has scored twenty two point nine and fourteen point one PPR points over his last two and he's found the end zone in both contests. His target share in those two games twenty percent and fourteen point three percent. That's it. You would think that he's sort of a quintessential cell candidate, right kind of sorta. The reason he's more of a hold is because Dallas Goddard fractured his forearm, which sounds very, very painful, and with that fractured forearm, Smith should see an uptick in targets. Last season, Goddard missed weeks eleven through f fifteen. During those games, Philadelphia wide receivers average a target share per game rate of seventy six point four percent. When Goddard was healthy, that number dropped by about ten percentage points, and Smith benefited from this. Without Dallas Goddard, last year, Smith's target share per game rate was about three percentage points higher, and he scored two more PPR points per game without Goddard. Now, this year's team is different. Smith is seeing a lower target share year over year, but there is likely going to be an uptick and usage for Devonte Smith. So if you can't use this news to sell Smith really, really high, and let's be honest, given the way that Devonte Smith's season is gone, people aren't gonna willingly take him on. So I think, as a result, holding him right now is totally fine. By Marquise Brown, the Cardinals offense could not do a thing on Sunday, But are we really surprised they used a Day three rookie quarterback against the Cleveland Browns defense. Kyler Murray should be back soon. That's gonna give this offense a nice lift, especially Marquise Brown, who's had about a twenty eight percent target share this season. It may take some time for Brown to produce with Kyler Murray. Let's just get that out of the way. They haven't played together all year. Kyler Murray's coming off in acl but in the fantasy playoffs, Arizona gainst the forty nine ers, Bears and Eagles. At this moment, the forty nine ers in Eagles. They've actually been top five opponents for wide receivers this season and adjusted fantasy points allowed teams are really attacking those squads through the air. So buying Marquise Brown to me is a nice long term play. Sell Or, hold Dalton Schultz. Dalton Schultz has now had four straight games with amazing usage. He's averaged an impressive twenty seven and a half percent target share per game rate during this time. Your league mates, they may not be aware that Dalton Schultz has been kind of awesome. He's averaged sixteen point three PPERO points per game over this four game stretch and coming off a monster twenty seven point performance. Now might be the time to sell high if you can, and that's key to this transaction. If your league mates understand how Schultz has been performing, then yeah, you can sell high, and it's because of this adjusted fantasy points allowed. It matters a little bit less at tight end, But Houston has the third worst tight end schedule from now through the end of the year, and then look at their Fantasy playoffs schedule. During the Fantasy playoffs, Schultz will face the Titans twice, who've been the third best team against tight ends this year, and then Cleveland once who have absolutely dominated tight ends. Like I said, there's a chance of your league mates have no idea that Dalton Schultz has been this good, and if that's the case, I would not be selling him. I would only be selling Schultz this week if I could truly sell high by DeAndre Swift. So, for the first time since Week two, DeAndre Swift didn't score double digit PPR points, but I would not panic at all. He still saw seventy eight percent of Philadelphia's running back rushes and a nine and a half percent target chair against Dallas. Now, his target shairs have dipped a little bit over the last few weeks, but this Dallas Goddard injury should increase that target share at least a little bit, and then all the while, Philadelphia running backs have a top ten schedule rest of season, and in the fantasy playoffs, the Eagles will face the Seahawks, Giants, and Cardinals. Those are each very favorable matchups for running backs. So DeAndre Swift is going to be just fine. And ty Chandler so unfortunately Cam Akers ruptured his achilles again, He's done for the year. That means that ty Chandler's gonna step up. He's going to be the number two running back for Minnesota once again. That might mean something. This season, the starter, Alexander Madison ranks fifth worst in rushing yards over expected per carry among all fifty plus attempt backs. Just to give you some context in that metric, he's listened around players like Damian Pierce, Miles Sanders, and Rashad White. And Rashad White has not been very good on the ground. He's just been really good through the air. Chandler, meanwhile, is an explosive compliment. Who's seen better per rush numbers across the board compared to Alexander Madison. Now, yeah, it's a really small sample. It's not everything to be better than Madison within those statistics. It's not everything at all, it's just something to note, but the Vikings have a really, really nice schedule moving forward. That's actually a reason to feel fine about Madison. He might even be considered a by candidate. But it also means that there's a possibility for more than one running back in this backfield to eat. According to what Justin Fantasy Points Allowed, Minnesota has the best short term schedule in the league and the third best long term one. So don't sleep on ty Chandler as a cheap ad. This week, sell Deontay Foreman Deontay Forman ended up seeing a season high eighty seven percent running back rush air against the Saints on Sunday, but I would not count on that continuing. Khalil Herbert can return from his high ankle sprain this week, and when he's back, we're looking at a completely up in the air Chicago backfield, and then has a chance to become even worse if Justin Fields is healthy and taking even more looks away. As I've noted before on this show, Chicago running backs have the worst remaining schedule by Justin Fantasy Points Allowed, and that running back schedule it ranks worse than the fantasy playoffs too. This is your reminder to stay away from this backfield by Tony Pollard. I know, I know you don't want to hear about this either. You're over by Jean Robinson, You're over Tony Pollard. But I'm gonna say it again. I only care about what's happening right now and moving forward. What can I do to help your fantasy rosters improve? And I think one of the moves that you can make this week is trading for Tony Pollard. Low it's not August anymore. You shouldn't be paying an August price tag to get Pollard. You should be paying a lot less and that's why he's an attractive buy. Hear me out though, Here's why we can be optimistic about Pollard moving forward. First off, Dallas has faced the fifth toughest running back schedule so far this year by justin Fantasy points allowed. Half of their games this year have been against top half favorable matchups for running backs. In those games, in those favorable matchups, Tony Pollard has averaged a very respectable eighteen point six PPR points per game. That's like an overall RB six number. That's not bad at all. In Pollard's other games though, when he's facing bad matchups that average, that points per game average is only eight point three, and that's what's really driving down his fantasy numbers. Now. Fortunately, from now through the end of the fantasy season, just two of Pollard's matchups would be considered very tough. They get Philadelphia and Detroit. Still the rest are average or above average. Dallas Backs have the tenth best schedule in the league from now through the end of the year. Remember, they've had the fifth toughest to start the season, and Pollard's peripherals they're still there. Over his last three games, he's seen an eighty percent running back rush are per game. His target share per game has been twelve and a half percent. There's nothing wrong with that at all. He's just simply underperformed. According to Pro Football Focuses Expected Fantasy Points model, based on Pollard's usage and where he's touching the ball, his points per game average should be over four points higher than it currently is. In other words, he's a massive regression candidate. Now, Pollard might not be as explosive as the twenty twenty two version, but it feels premature to bury Tony Pollard in fantasy football. If you're in need of a more volatile asset. I think trading for him right now after facing the toughest defense in the league against running backs makes plenty of sense. Ad Taylor Heineke. Now, look, I don't feel great about this recommendation. We shouldn't expect a ton from Taylor Heineke and fantasy football, but he's one of the few low rostered quarterbacks this week with a favorable matchup. Atlanta gets Arizona. The Cardinals are a top five matchup for quarterbacks and justin fantasy points allowed. Aside from Josh Dobbs, Taylor Heineke is the low rostered quarterback with a decent matchup that you can stream. Players like Sam Howe, Russell Wilson, even Will Levis. I'd probably prefer them over Taylor Heineke this week, but they're rostered in way more leagues, so Heinike gets the transaction. Add the Seattle Seahawks defense. According to Fandles Sportsbook, the Seahawks are six point home favorites against the Commanders this weekend. Washington ranks is the second best opponent for defenses and justin fantasy points allowed, and they've allowed the sixth highest pressure rate in all football, so Seattle makes a ton of sense this week in a bounced back spot. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by starting for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found. Hey, do for to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening to everyone, greatly appreciate it. As always, I'll talk to you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trend Show.