Key Factors for Braves to Find Success Out West

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Speaker 1: Welcome one and all to the Here Territory Podcast.

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Speaker 2: My name is Sean Coleman.

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Speaker 3: To hope.

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Speaker 1: Wherever you are and wherever you are listening, you, yes, you, you have had a good week so far. It is a rare Hamor Territory episode after a loss from Brace. The Braiders did lose today five to two, unfortunately to the Tigers. Had had plenty of chances to win. But listen, this is again one of those losses that you know, when you win as frequently as the Braves do, it's okay to stomach these losses every now and then, especially when you keep winning series, and that's the big goal for the Braves. I we'll get to the loss here a little bit later on the episode, but I can tell you this, the bigger thing to take away from this Tigers series is you want a series against a legit al contender.

00:00:58
Speaker 2: Jr.

00:00:58
Speaker 1: Richie and Bryce Elder stood total toe with tark Scooble as well as from Bravaldez, and at the end of the day, you're winning series that you should win. That These are type of games that are our playoff predictors. In my opinion, these are the type of games you see in the playoffs. So the first two games are in my opinion, far more relevant than the third one. But of course we will talk about the game. But again, we're continuing to get news daily. We're continuing to get updates on when exactly to expect some pre significant names back in a Braves uniform. And there's two in particular that here on this road trip, this big West Coast road trip the Braves are about to go on. They're going to be back ready to contribute to the Braves.

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Speaker 2: And there's no.

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Speaker 1: Better way to be able to break it down than number one with one of the best when it comes to breaking down the Braves, Steven Tolbert, but also through our mix it Up segment engineered by fastenal So, Stephen, we've been talking for days, even weeks now when it comes to several of these big names or significant names when it comes to, you know, expected contributions for the Braves coming back, none bigger than Spencer Strider. Obviously, over the past twenty four to forty eight hours it was revealed that his next start would be with the Braves. We now have a good idea. As a matter of fact, you can pretty much guarantee when that's going to be. And the great thing about it is it's this weekend as we start this West Coast run drip.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, what's up, buddy. So we got word that it was going to be Sunday for Spencer Strider. In case you missed it, they did come out on I think yesterday and said that Spencer's next start was going to be with the Braves. They released their probables for the Colorado series, which was Chris I'm sorry, Grant Holmes on Friday, Chris Sale on Saturday, and then a TBA listed for Sunday. Now, Spencer Strider is not currently on the roster, so I think they have to put TBA. But that's Spencer Strider, like he's going to be. Strider is going to pitch Sunday. So for your your weekend series, you got Grant Holmes, Chris Sale, Spencer Strider. And again we're gonna talk about the game that was played today a little later. Given how the pitching matchups lined up, obviously the braves best pitchers are going in this Colorado series, which means the Braves had kind of three of their lesser guys going in the Detroit series. So of course you're happy to take two out of three, But yeah, Strider coming back opens up a lot of questions because one, and I want to get your thoughts on this, you got to somebody's got to come out of the rotation because right now the Braves like they already took Ronaldo out of the rotation and just put Martine Perez in, So I'm sorry they put Jerr Richie in so they could add just Strider to the mix and go six man, which they've done already and have talked about doing. Give everybody more rest, which clearly they love to do, and they might do that. The problem with that is if when you go to a six month rotation you have one less bullpen arm, and stuff like that can catch up with you kind of like it did today honestly, where you find yourself in a high leverage situation and only kind of your worst relievers available. So that's a factor. You also have to, of course decide the roster move. To get Spencer Strider back on the twenty six man roster, somebody has to leave one of those three. Kind of meh, bullpen arms is probably a decent guess, but I kind of want to know where you at where do you which direction of those two things do you think they should go?

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Speaker 1: Oh, it's simple, you dfa Jose swar Is. And I will say this about Jose swar Is. You know the reason why you dfa him is because he is one of your weaker arms on your major league roster, and you know he's been used mainly as a mop up role. I think that he has done pretty decent overall for what he's been asked to do so far this year. But it's it's even less about Jose Sworez, you know, not really being that effective of a picture, and more of the aspect that you already got exactly what you're looking for, and Jose swre Is in a more effective of way with Martin Perez, a multiple inning left handed guy that you could start if you want to go to a six man rotation at some stretch here in the season, maybe it's here in the near future, what have you or that person that can come in and work multiple innings when you have a big lead, or if it's one of these games where you've already won the series and you're not trying to quote unquote Chase wins even if you're down a run or two, he can still keep you in the game. I think it's really Jose Suarez because you really don't need both him and Martin Perez on the roster, especially when you're looking to replace one of them with the quality of arm that you're going to get hopefully in Spencer Strider.

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Speaker 3: It's certainly easier to do that now that Dylan Lee is back, because if Dylan Lee wasn't back, Aaron Bummer would be the only lefty in the bullpen if you did fits for us. So, now that Lee is back and you have Lee and Bummer, Bummer is a whole another conversation, and we're probably gonna talk about a little later in the show. I think I agree with you. I think pie I think you can make the argument for pie Amps. I think suarez Is multi inning ability might be more valuable than whatever Joel Piamps has given you. But I think Piams also makes real money. I think Piamps is making like two and a half million bucks, which you would have to kind of eat. I think either guy would potentially clear waivers. I don't know. Suarez probably has a better chance of clearing waivers after you DFAH, and then you could bring it back if you wanted. I think I agree with you. I think I would go surez dfa Strider back, Martin Perez in the bullpen as the long man and then just insert Strider back into a five man rotation. I think that's what they'll do. It's it's gonna be fair, it's gonna be fad. There's there's a lot of stuff with the bullpen right now. I'm still kind of worried about Ronaldo. I'm still kind of worried about the front end guys of the bullpen. The back ends great, but the front ends a question. But yeah, I agree. I think Strider for Suarez and Martin Perez to the bullpen makes the most sense.

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Speaker 1: And that's also not you know, you know, to toss aside the fact of you know what to expect from Strider. You know, he's looked pretty decent in his minor league starts. The velocity isn't where it was in twenty two and twenty three, but it's been about ninety five ninety six pumping up to ninety seven when he needs to. With the talent that Strider has, that's effective enough, you want to hopefully see the movement seems to be a bit better on the fastball this year. You have to hope the secondary stuff is certainly there, but he's going to get a quick crash course and seeing how effective his stuff is because he's going to be in Colorado for his first start, and that's going to line him right up maybe even to face like a Yoshinobu Yamamoto or a glass Now or an Otani against La in La in his second start. Strider of the person is definitely up for it. Strider the you know pitcher returning back or making his debut, and you know, Sunday that's a different story. But I will say this, Stephen, I feel a bit more confident in Strider coming back now than I did last year when we saw him struggle coming off you know, the the uh, you know, being out for nearly all of twenty four with the eelbow injury.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I love that you can pronounce Yamamoto's name just absolutely perfectly, just enunciated, nailed every syllable of it. And then Zach Gallon is just a mystery upon mysteries. That's that's one of the things that makes Sean Coleman one of the best.

00:08:19
Speaker 1: It's it's all about what you deserve. Ones one's a world didn't he win the World Series? MP's World Series Hero last year? If you win, if you win a World Series and you are the game guy as to the reason why your team won the World series.

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Speaker 3: Right, yeah, Zach Gallian, step your game up. So yeah, what Strider looks like is gonna be I mean, everybody is gonna have all eyes on the radar gun, on the movement of the pitches. You know, he will tell you the fastball velocity is not as important as the fastball movement and how it rises, and you know, there's an induced vertical break. There's a whole kind of pitch, how pitches move, whole sign behind it that he's very much into and very much believes in. And so all of that stuff is going to be monitored pretty heavily on Sunday. It's gonna be in Coors Field at altitude where pitches aren't known to move as much as maybe they normally do. So we'll see how the slider looks. You know, can he miss batch with a slider? Listen, he used to be able to throw the ball right down the middle at one hundred and guys couldn't hit it, and he can't really do that anymore. Even at like ninety six ninety seven, that's still much much more hittable than one hundred. So it's gonna be fascinating. I can't wait. I'm excited to see him. His last two starts in Gwinnett certainly looked I actually watched a couple. It takes a lot for me to turn on a minor league baseball game, and Spencer Strider pitching is kind of what it takes us. I wanted to see Sean Murphy a little bit, but yeah, it's it's gonna be fascinating to see what he looks like. And I tell you what, man, if he comes back, because like you said, his next start is going to be against the Dodgers, So this is gonna be a hello, welcome back to the team. We need your best stuff pretty damn quick. But if he can give him that, if he can actually give him a boost and you know, kind of continue what he's done so far in Gwinnett, that's going to be a major lift. Because I don't know that I'm fully expecting that. I'm kind of, if I'm being honest with you, Sean, I'm kind of expecting probably a little bit of a slow transition back into the majors. I wouldn't be surprised if he had just kind of an average start against Colorado and then maybe an average maybe even a blow ever start against the Dodgers, and then we started seeing the improvement. But we'll see. I'm excited to see what he looks like.

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Speaker 1: And that's the thing that I think before we get to Sean Murphy that I think is important when it comes to keeping the perspective of Strider in a place where it's not instantly disappointing. If you're expecting for Strider again to come back and be close to what he was in twenty twenty two twenty twenty three, where he was a monster velosity pitcher with the secondary stuff working off of it, you're going to be disappointed. He's just not that pitture right now. And if Spencer Strider is preaching that fastball movement is more important than fastball velocity, that tells me not someone who doesn't feel he won't ever get back to what he was in twenty two and twenty three with the velocity, but it's someone who's in the mindset of if I don't get back there. How am I going to succeed what I'm looking for? When it comes to Spencer Strider in Colorado and then la is at a pitcher who's clearly got a better plan than he did at times last year when he was trying to figure things out, someone who's got the confidence of knowing, Hey, right now, I'm throwing ninety six ninety seven, so I need to be able to use that fastball effectively. Maybe not every time setting up my secondary stuff, but sometimes the secondary stuff sets up the velocity of the fastball. That's what I'm hoping for, and I feel that he's fully capable of doing it. I want to see a picture that's comfortable with what he has now in finding success with it, and I think that that is a very realistic outcome. The other name that we certainly want to touch on is Sean Murphy. Sean Murphy has certainly picked up his overall hitting production. He's struggled about the first week or plus in his minor league appearances, but he's regularly catching now and he's really started to heat up at the plate. The expectation is is that he likely I believe Stephen correct me if I'm wrong. We'll be back in the Seattle series, and that's got to be a big boost for this Brave squad because you're starting also to see the Braves start to get a little bit of testing when it comes to their offensive depth with names such as Michael Harris, you know, being a bit on the men right now. When it comes to an injury that he's dealing with Sean Murphy coming back again, we can you know, probably discuss either call Farmer or Jonah him being the guy that you know is the odd man out once Murphy comes back. But at the very least, it'll be a welcome sight to see Sean Murphy's bat in play. But one thing that I will say though, the Braves are going to be facing a lot of right handed pitching once he comes back, so it may not necessarily be him in the lineup every single day.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Murphy had two more hits in Guinette tonight. He's like seven, I think seven for his last eighteen. I think he started obviously he was moving around different levels, but I think he started like one for twenty one or one for twenty two, something like that. In his rehab start, he's looked much better at the plate. And it was notable to me that what White said when they were talking about Murphy that they were comfortable with the defense, they wanted actually to get him more at bats before they called him up. I think they clearly wanted him to get his timing a little sharper before they called him up. So yeah, two more his tonight in Gwinette. He's looked way better at the plate. I am fascinated to see what they do on the roster. Whether it's Jonaheim, it's either gotta be Jonaheim or Kyle Farmer. I don't really see them going a different direction, you know, I don't know that one is more likely to make it through waivers than the other. I think Jonaheim would probably make it through waivers and you might be able to add him back as catcher depth. But I also like get the argument for carrying three catchers other until like a couple of days ago, when the Braves faced obviously Frambur and Scooble, we hadn't seen Kyle Farmer at all. We would go weeks without seeing Cayle. I forgot he was on the team. Whereas Jonahim is playing like every couple of days, or at least every three or four days when there was a lefty on the mound. So I think it might be Kyl Farmer the odd man out, but I don't know. We'll see. I think we're gonna find out on Sunday night or maybe Monday morning before the Seattle game. And Walt said today that he's coming up for the Seattle series. They kind of went ahead and announced it. I don't think he's got any chance of coming up. If I'm Murphy, I'm pissed because I would want a debut in Colorado versus Seattle. In LA I would be working, like you know, I'd be trying like hell to get on the roster for the Colorado series of Our Him. But yeah, it looks like it's gonna be Monday, and again veryous see what they do with the roster, and just having Murphy back will be He's just a better player than the guys he's replacing. Like I know, there are people that don't love Murphy. Whatever, we're not doing that whole thing right now. I think he's better than Jonah him so, and I think he's better than Kyl Farmer, and so it's just an improvement and it's more depth and it will help things out. So I'm excited to see him back well.

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Speaker 1: And that's the other thing to remember in this case as well, because we're talking about Spencer Strider and we're talking about Sean Murphy. But you know, a week after this, we'll be talking about Ryce Sellyglacias as well as another arm as well as Hassan Kim another bat. So if you're bringing it down to two guys that you could see going for either Strider or Murphy, it's more than likely that whoever doesn't go this time around, when those two guys come back, the other guy will likely be you know, if it's not if it's a farmer now, it likely will be hid once the other comes back. Another thing that we could see, Dave Dombrowski of the Phillies did come out and say himself that trade talks are happening a bit more frequently earlier in the season than we've seen before. You easily could see Alex and Thopolis trying to seize what may be out there. As far as just a minor trade sending Jonah him to another team as a backup catcher because he is on a major league contract. Not likely, but that also could be a reason why maybe they're trying, you know, to go through the weekend of seeing that they can get a deal like that done and then Colin Murphy up. But there's a lot of different ways.

00:15:58
Speaker 2: You can go.

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Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, yes, talking about Strider, Yes we're talking about Sean Murphy, but also be very aware of the fact that towards the end of this road trip we also could be having the same discussion this time next week we get to be having the same discussion about rice selling glaciers as well as Hasan Kim. But plenty of roster moves to come.

00:16:18
Speaker 2: And while it's going to be.

00:16:19
Speaker 1: Great to get those guys back, one thing that's pretty evident on this big road trip coming up, the Braves are going to need to have some of their most reliable bats in the past really step back up to be those reliable bats in the present. More on that though, after we talk about a very reliable source, and that's the fine folks at fasten All, our sponsor for this mix it Up segment.

00:16:44
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00:16:52
Speaker 2: There's just wonderful rhythm.

00:16:53
Speaker 1: When you read that, Ad Steven, I mean, I think I think narration is in is in your is in your future.

00:17:00
Speaker 2: What do you think?

00:17:01
Speaker 3: You know that gallion?

00:17:04
Speaker 2: You just you can't let that go.

00:17:05
Speaker 3: I will never I want to. I want to be clear about something. I will never let that go. I will say that. I will text you that on my deathbed.

00:17:14
Speaker 2: Wow, just.

00:17:18
Speaker 3: Not to make fun of you, but because I found that to be one of the funniest things I've ever heard in my life.

00:17:23
Speaker 1: So one thing that I can tell you that I can't like that, and I'm not gonna let it go, all right, and let me hear it, even even if people are speculating that you need to let it go what have you and things like that. Joe Torri once said about Jason Geomby that he would stick with him in the lineup even if we went oh for one hundred, right. That was that was his commitment to Jason Giomby. Now this was before it was revealed that Jason Jeomby took a bunch of steroids. I feel like on that level with Austin Riley, like I I I feel like that's the case and I'm not ashamed to say that, Like when we talk about Braves that you love. We all love Ronald, we all love O's Olsen. You know, I get that. But man, the love that I have for Austin Riley and Ozzy Alby's, for the careers that they've had, the people that they are, It's so awesome to see Ozzy Alby's have the bounce back year that he is, I badly want that. For Austin Riley, I am concerned. I very much am arned. He had a very, very tough series and in a setup where the Braves really could have used him, you know, to get that extra run. Maybe even today, there were a couple of opportunities where he had a chance to come through big and he just didn't. And bat speed is still there. But Stephen, unfortunately, I had a little bit of hope earlier this year when he wasn't chasing as much, he wasn't striking out as much, he wasn't walking a bit more. But when we talk about the overall approach at the plate right now for Austin Riley, it feels like a mess. And the fact that it's still that same concern after last year and the year before where you hope it was a mechanical issue that eventually got you know, worked out so that the bat speed can be effective again. He could start driving the ball to right field it again. I feel like there's still clearly an opportunity that we're going to be fine. He's eventually going to get it. I feel very confident and saying I'm not going to guarantee it. I feel very confident in saying we talk about all the time July Riley turns into bonds.

00:19:27
Speaker 2: Right.

00:19:28
Speaker 1: At some point, Austin Riley is going to figure it out and he's going to have a hot streak.

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Speaker 2: There's no doubt in my.

00:19:31
Speaker 1: Mind that's the case. But man, it's just it's hard to see him get to that point with how much he's struggling, and it seems year over year now the struggles just get worse. It's fair to be concerned at this point about Austin Isley.

00:19:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we've kind of avoided this topic, really going deep into it for the last probably a week or two, because the team has been winning and like, we're not going to we're not going to dive into this too deep on days they win, because you know, it's We're not gonna drag the mood down, but it's been bad. And you know he had he had those three homers in two games like twelve games ago, i think, and since then he's i think, three for forty seven with two walks in like twelve strikeouts. The strikeouts are climbing at a at a tough rate. And the it's not just strikeouts, it's the pitches he's swinging at two strikeout where it's a ton of sliders off the plate. It's a ton of breaking pitches off the plate. It it and there's no power. That is the concerning thing. And I've said this before. Austin's power is one of the most important stats on the team. And like you said, especially against these lefties, you know, Frambur and Schoolbal like you need Austin to be a weapon against the Braves are not the same caliber of offense against left handed pitching, just because you know some of their best hitters Olsen Baldwin this year. You know, Harris or dom Smith are left handed, and they're not gonna even if they're decent or good against lefties, they're not gonna be as good as they are against righties. It's just how baseball works, and so you need you need Austin specifically in those spots, and you need his power. Like I don't need Austin to hit three twenty, but I need Austin to slug like four eighty or higher. And what's concerning about Austin right now is not only does he have a three twenty five slugging percentage, which is shockingly low, he's got a three sixty expected slugging percentage. So it's not even a case with like Ronald where like he's hitting the absolute piss out of the ball. He's just getting no results. He's not even doing that, and that's what that's the concerning part. And like you said, we've always seen Austin get hot in the summer, but usually when Austin got hot in the summer, that would take his numbers from like a one one fifteen WRC plus up to like a one thirty one forty WRC plus and that's where he would end and so he would be out of this monster offensive season because of it. Now he needs those summer months, those hot summer months, just to get back up to like a league average hitter. And that's the difference. And that's I don't know, man. You know, I saw there's been a lot of discussion. You know, when you sign the largest contract in the history of the franchise, people are going to talk about it. That's just the deal. That's and every professional athlete knows it. I swear to you, Austin Riley is perfectly fine with people talking about He knows the deal. Like you signed that contract, your production is going to be a topic of conversation now, for better or for worse. That's the deal. And it's just not been good enough. And I do not feel good about it because there's not a lot in his profile that's like, oh, this is happening, this, this is something I can kind of lean on. There's just not a lot in that profile right now that is all that encouraging.

00:22:59
Speaker 1: So have the profile a bit. You know, the bat speed is certainly still there, but we continue to see, you know, the other you know, integral parts to being able to consistently make hard contact that they continue to decline, you know, the barrel rate, you know, the overall expected slugging, things such as that. Those are areas that are concerned. But when you also look at it, to your point, it's right handed pitching. That is what is really given Austin fits right now. So far this year, in thirty nine at bats against left handed pitchers, Austin has a one to fifty eight WRC plus against right handed pitching in seventy nine plate appearances. It's plate appearances. Excuse me that at bats versus left handers. In seventy nine plate appearances against right handers, it's a twenty seven WRC plus And I would imagine, I haven't you know, gotten that far into it. He It's it's two issues. It feels like that Austin is behind when it comes to high velocity pitches pretty consistently, and it also feels like that he is starting to again chase those outside, low breaking ball pitches. And if you're doing if you can't catch up to the velocity and you're also chasing the breaking balls, you just don't have a shot. You're not going to be able to put consistently good at bats against same sided pitching like Austin has struggled with when it comes to right handed pitching.

00:24:20
Speaker 2: The other reason.

00:24:21
Speaker 1: Why we bring this up, why now it is time for Riley to really get going, is because again one of your most productive hitters in Michael Harris. The second he's injured right now, you know he's going to eh a good bit on this road trip, especially against right handed pitching, but he's probably not at one hundred percent. The Braves are going to have to have some other reliable right handed at bat against quality competition that Ronald Acuna Junior, who again is not anywhere near the same level of concern as Austin Riley. But let's be honest, Ronald is not having, you know, the most idea starts the season himself. Yeah, what I'm getting at is that for the Braves to have success, especially next week against Seattle in Los Angeles on the road, they're going to need Austin Riley to get go. It's going to be much easier for the Braves to have success as a true contender with Austin Riley getting going. The problem is Seattle and Los Angeles are the two best pitching staffs in terms of limiting right handed hitting production in baseball. Yeah, so if there's time to break through, it's going to really be next week against Seattle and the Dodgers for Riley. But you couldn't ask for a tougher slate to do it against.

00:25:33
Speaker 3: Yeah, And that's the other thing is the Breads have been playing I mean, you know, they've been playing decent competition, but like it's not like the Breads have been playing like the best schedule in the world, and Austin still can't find it. And now the competition level is stepping up, especially the pitching. I mean, we just saw schoobl and frambur and then we're gonna go. You know, Colorado's got some decent arms, not great but and it's a certainly hitter's part. But then you get to Seattle in LA and you're gonna see some monsters, and like you said, you're gonna see some monster right handed pitching, which Austin has really struggled with. And you're one hundred percent right. It's it's high velocity that's he And the funny thing is early in the season he wasn't striking out on these things. So if he was getting high velocity, he was hitting pop ups, a lot of infield pop ups. And then it's the low and away breaking stuff. And again he wasn't as much swinging and missing as he was a lot of like weak rounders to third base or short stop, and now those have been now those have progressed to just full swings and misses where he's just striking out on him. And so, you know, his batt at ball quality is just miserable right now. And that's that's the and that's why his all of his expected numbers are just as low as all of his results, because he doesn't have any kind of batted ball quality that would give you any sort of like good you know, like there's there's nothing that's given you any sort of encouragement that better days are coming other than his history, other than what he did, you know. But let's be honest, twenty two one, twenty twenty two, and twenty twenty three, that's that's getting a long way in the rear view mirror. I mean, we're talking three years ago at this point, where Austin was clearly one of the best hitters in baseball. It's now twenty twenty six and we're still dealing with this stuff. Yeah, it's tough. I don't I'm with you. Because of his World Series heroics, you know, Austin's always gonna be pretty much loved in Atlanta because he had a major role in that World Series in twenty one. You go watch. I was just watching highlights the other day about something popped up when he hit that double to the wall against la the one where you know, the guy goes there's some heat on it and it goes all the way well and scores Ozzie like him. Riley played a big role in that World Series, and so he's gonna be beloved for that alone. But again, that was a that's that's going on five years ago now, and there's a lot of that contract still in the future, and so your production is gonna matter, and so I really hope for he can find it again. It's just it's been tough to watch.

00:28:04
Speaker 1: And what I'm in with is this, when it comes to Austin Riley, is that you know, we talk about tough conversations and things like that, and I know out there on social media there's ever been you know, there's even been talk of, well, when you get him back and you get Murphy back, do you do you start seeing their playing time come at the extense on some playing time for Austin Riley. That's not the tough conversation that's happened. We're not anywhere near that, And we're not going to get to that. Austin Riley is going to play every day, and the reason.

00:28:28
Speaker 3: Two million dollars a year he's gonna play.

00:28:31
Speaker 1: That plays a part in it, and also the potential of what he can do when he figures out that also plays a part in it. I get that we're going on two plus years of him being at that top seven NDP level, like he was for three straight years at the beginning of this decade. But I'm here to tell you nobody is more aware of the struggles he is having than Austin Riley himself, and nobody is more passionate about getting it right than Austin Riley himself. And second to that is his teammate. I have full faith that he is going to eventually figured it out. The point that I'm getting at, though, is is I would certainly like for it to be sooner rather than later so we can get bigger proof of it being back when it really matters, and that's going to be this next ten days or so on this big West coast road trip. But we don't want to forget about today's game. And one big factor that we don't want to forget we're now to the point where two or three weeks ago we were talking about with Bryce Elder that if he gets to this point and he continues the success that he had at the start of the season, we could be having different conversations about what to expect for Bryce Elder when it comes to this year.

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00:30:43
Speaker 1: So Steven, let's let's get back to having a fun conversation. You know again, I know we were all concerned with Austin Ridley, want him to get back going, but let's have a fun conversation. And that is about Bryce Elver, and that's about someone who again we go back two weeks and me and you would both talked about it. Is this a mirage that we're seeing at the start of the season. Mark Bowman, I'll give him credit. He brought up a great point. Well, it's not necessarily a mirage because he's actually carrying over from the last six weeks of last year. Some of the success that he has had. Is it weaker competition, is it just you know, a lucky stretch and me and you both made the comment if there was a time to prove that he is a different type of picture, it's going to be now when he's going to start facing familiar lineups like he did against the Marlins and Washington and Philly, and then also supper competition like he did against Detroit who who in terms of expecting numbers one of the best lineups in baseball. He absolutely has done a great job. The thing that stands out to me, I don't expect for Bryce Elder to be a sub three hundred pitcher, but am I now to the point we're saying more often than not, I feel confident that Bryce Elder can go out there and give you a quality start.

00:32:00
Speaker 2: I do feel I can say that with confidence. I will say that with confidence.

00:32:03
Speaker 1: I feel more likely than not on a nightly basis, when he starts, Bryce Elder is going to give you a quality start.

00:32:08
Speaker 2: And for this.

00:32:09
Speaker 1: Offense, that's more than enough to ask. And it's also a very very fun thing to say compared to a year ago with where Bryce Elder was. Again, I'm not saying that Bryce Elder is some type of top of the rotation pitcher or anything such as that. I am saying that I feel confident that more often than not, Bryce Elder is going to do the job we ask him to do as an important part of this rotation for the rest of the year.

00:32:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was thinking about this today. I'm going to give you an analogy that I think sums up my feelings on Bryce Elder right now. So you know, I have you have like a glass of wine, and you set it in the sink, and you turn on the faucet and the water starts pouring into the glass. What will slowly happen is that glass of wine will start getting clearer and clearer and clearer, and eventually all of the wine will be gone, be just a clear, new glass of water. And the analogy here is that what Bryce used to be is the wine, and what he's been over the last six months is the water. And every time he does this, more and more fresh water goes in the glass and more and more of what he used to be comes out. And I'm seeing a new guy. I really am. I'm not ready. I need more fresh water. I need more. I need a couple more of these, especially against really good competition. But I am starting to change how I feel about Bryce Elder, like, he's just done it long enough now where you have to acknowledge it now. I'm not ready to say he's an All Star. I'm just not. Maybe that's maybe that's unfair to him. Maybe what he used to be is still weighing in my mind too much. But we have years of data on him before this year, and then we have like the last six months, the end of last year, in the beginning of the year, and one is starting to take over the other. I am starting to see enough fresh water in that glass where I'm starting to see something new, and so it is very exciting. I am fascinated to know more about what Greg Maddocks and him did in the off season, or you know, what they talked about and how it changed who he is. But it has been a different guy, and it's it's my god. Has it been helpful for the Braves who have lost so many much pitching, especially since spring training started. They've needed every bit of it. And credit to Bryce first and foremost credit to Bryce because he did the work, he made the changes. He saw the trajectory of his career and he didn't like it, and so he decided to try something else and It's worked unbelievably well and I couldn't be happier for him.

00:34:49
Speaker 1: Well, another way I think you could put that is that, you know, if you're going from that wine to the water, you can say in the past, when you know watching Bryce, you know made you want a drink after scene and one of his starts, it's.

00:34:59
Speaker 3: Now re yeah hydrating.

00:35:03
Speaker 2: By the way, I do want to point out I remember this correctly.

00:35:07
Speaker 3: Probably not did we beat Zach Wheeler?

00:35:09
Speaker 2: Now we didn't.

00:35:09
Speaker 1: We didn't beat Zach Wheeler nevermind, So we couldn't do the elder statesman thing.

00:35:13
Speaker 2: Never mind.

00:35:13
Speaker 1: I was trying to go man missed opportunity. And I'll give credit to the Brays organization. I don't think it again wipes away the bad process of not adding some type of external starting pitching death in spring training. But from the start of spring training there was a a what seemed like a more solid voice of confidence in Bryce Selder and what he could do in this rotation. And and that comes from them knowing more than we do. That's absolutely I'm sure. I'm sure that I'm sure they encouraged Bryce to go and potentially see what Greg Maddox can could do.

00:35:51
Speaker 2: For him.

00:35:51
Speaker 1: So that's stuff that comes out if it's a success, If this wouldn't have worked, you don't hear about that.

00:35:57
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't.

00:35:59
Speaker 3: I no, No, I'm not gonna say the team saw this coming. Maybe they did. I meant the end of last year. The problem was the end of last year, like the season was over, and so it's tough to judge any results. Like the Brads went on a ten game winning streak last September, No one remembers that, and so like when the season is over and you're you know, it's like garbage time minutes in the NBA, Like it's tough to put a full judgment on what you're seeing as to how real it is because it just doesn't matter. So I'm not gonna say the team knew this was coming. I think they hoped it was coming. And again, Bryce Eelder is not in the rotation unless they lose multiple guys at spring training, so I think there was still some doubt in their mind as well. And I think there's still some doubt in their mind into how real all of this is, which I think is fair.

00:36:50
Speaker 2: I do.

00:36:51
Speaker 3: I do think it's fair to still be like, all right, I need to see it a little bit more. I need to see a little more fresh water in the glass before I declare that this is a new pay. But he's been awesome. He's just been capitally awesome. And every time he goes out I'm kind of expecting it to go sideways at some points and then it just doesn't, and he gets out of jams constantly. He's missing bats. He didn't miss as much bout as many bats in his last start. I thought he did. I thought he looked better in that regard. Today. I know they lost, but they didn't lose because of him. They were winning when he came out of the game. So it's just been it's just been unbelievably good from Bryce and I and all the all the credit in the world goes to him.

00:37:31
Speaker 1: The last thing will cover when it comes to this game is that, you know, when we talk about you know, players that you know, we we we had hoped, you know, he maybe had a bounce back year after you know, growing concerns coming into this year that it's just not worked out for that's Aaron Bummer. And I know that we talked about him, you know, a few episodes ago, but a big need for this Braves team is left handed relief depth, especially if they want the bullpen to have They have quality, they have depth, but versatility when you only have one reliable left handed reliever, that's where it becomes a bit of a question mark. I don't think that we're to the point to where Aaron Bummer becomes a casualty this early in the year. I don't think that's the case. I think that there's legit questions, you know, as we get closer, if the Praise still continue to have success, they want to make multiple moves with the bullpen. Does he survive that that's a fair question. What I do think we're to the point of is that, yeah, Bummer may may remain a part of the bullpen, but in the if the situation calls for it, I am giving Dylan Dodd and Hayden Harris potentially in time, I'm giving them every opportunity to step up to be that second guy, because at the end of the day, Bummer's gone after this year. If that, if that happens sooner rather than later, you know, that's just the simple truth. But Aaron Bummer, you certainly hope that you know, he can figure it out. I'm not highly confident that he's going.

00:38:57
Speaker 3: To Yeah, but listen, bummer makes ten million bucks, so he's not going anywhere at least right now. I mean they might, you know, they might years.

00:39:12
Speaker 2: Wanting to be difficult. I'll figure it out.

00:39:14
Speaker 3: Yeah, they might get to the point near the end of the season where they cut loose, but they're not eating ten you know, he's only been paid like a sixth of his salary, so they're not they're not eating ten million bucks in April. We'll see. I do think the Braves are going to be in the market for a left handed arm. You've said that, you've been you've kind of been on the leading front of that for you know, weeks now that the Braves a left handed reliever is going to be kind of a major need. And I've I've every every game i've watched, I've kind of more and more agreed with you that I do think that's going to be a major need. And today's games, yeah, we'll see, we'll see what they do. I don't know if they'll go that big, but and in today's game was a perfect example. They had a two to one lead in the eighth inning, all of their high leverage. Guys have been used a bunch, and they had to go with Joel Piamps, Aaron Bummer and Jose Suarez and and it I mean he got away from them in a hurry. I mean they gave up that lead and then some very very quickly and the game was over. So the Braves do need a little bit more. I am very curious to see what they do with Piamps. Is you know, is James Karenshak gonna come up at some point and see what he looks like. I could see Piamps being dfad. Bummer's gonna Bummer's contract is gonna save him for now. But the back of the Bridge bullpen is very good, especially when Glaciers gets back. The front of the Bridge bullpen could still use some work. Now. I will say that is the easiest position to go add at the trade deadline because there's relievers everywhere. It's kind of the part of the team. If you're gonna have a weakness, you want that to be the weakness because it's the easiest to fix. But the Braves do need to fix the front of their bullpen and add a little more depth. Another left tend or reliever would be great. Maybe give Karen Shack an opportunity to see what he looks like. But yeah, this that's pretty clearly a part of the team. If you're going to look for like a weakness, there's not many right now that would probably be one where it's pretty clear they could use an upgrade.

00:41:15
Speaker 2: And here's the thing.

00:41:16
Speaker 1: And I know that I've kind of got on my soapbox a few times about this and it's April like, like we're still three months away from them when this is likely going to happen. But with where the Braves have started that they're a legit contender. If they go through this road trip and they have success, they are again they're in my opinion, they are right in mind with anybody else under the Dodgers, if not at their own tier under the Dodgers when it comes to legit World Series contenders. Because you're in that position, you don't know what's going to happen after this year when it comes to whatever could potentially you know, eat into the twenty twenty seven season. Yea, you need to take it. I'm not saying do anything stupid, but you should use this year as a World Series or bus type here and in the position that your start has allowed for you to be in I want to say this and say this with full clearity, Alex and Thoptless has every reason to go out and make a big splash effective trade. It's going to be hard to do that. Everybody knows my love for Jose Soreano of the Angels. I guarantee you he's going to be on the market. I guarantee you teams are going to talk about him. I guarantee you that the price is going to be absolutely astronomical. So at the starting and when I say they need to make a big splash, it's more than likely. On the starting pitching side, this team is still a big, significant arm away from really being on that level to where you can convince yourself this team could give the Dodgers trouble in the playoffs. And if a starting pitcher, another number two level or higher starting pitcher is not in the cards, that other dominant left handed reliever is what they need to go after, and those are few and far between. The overall point that I'm getting at is if this Braves team shows they can match up with the Mariners and the Dodgers, just like they showed they can match up with the Tigers. This is a team worth investing in to truly give them a shot to win a World Series title. And that's adding another significant arm to this rotation slash bullpion at or before or at the trade deadline.

00:43:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I couldn't agree more. You don't know what twenty twenty seven is gonna be. You don't know if there's gonna be a twenty twenty seven season. I hate to say that, it would it would literally break my heart if the if baseball got interrupted to that level in twenty twenty seven. But the tenor of the early conversations are not good, and there is there's gonna be pretty hard lines in the sand drawn and and we'll see what happens. So yeah, and listen, the Braves haven't really done like fully all in at any trade deadline. They've they've you know, you've always kind of said Alex is kind of the master of the moves on the margins, and they've done that a lot. And even last year when they sucked, you know, they added Tyler Kinley, who's been fantastic. So you can always find good relievers. But yeah, I do think, you know, another arm would make me feel better, Austin Riley, remembering how to hit would make me feel so much better. You know, the Michael Harris Ozzy Alby's resurrections have been unbelievably fun to watch. I mean Ozzy today. You know, Ozzy had an unbelievable series against some really good pitching. You know, with Ozzie the expected stuff isn't great, but you know, right now the results are are fantastics. So and Michael has just been unbelievable. I do think Yaz is gonna contribute more. Him and Eli White have had some adventures in the outfield, though, I'll say that they got to clean up the outfield stuff a little bit. I know, I know neither one of them are Michael Harris out there, but we've we've probably given away a couple of games with some pretty shoddy outfield defense, so we got to clean that up. But yeah, the team's in a really good spot. I don't care about this loss that much. It's it's a series when when you look at the pitching matchups at the beginning of the series, you would have taken two out of three all day, like, this is one of the easiest losses I'll ever get it took me thirty seconds to get over this loss. So just go to Colorado and take care of business.

00:45:19
Speaker 1: And the key to also remember is is the goal is not to win every game, right. You don't want to make moves where you go, you know, all out to win every game, especially this the year. Again, I know that every game counts is equal. But the more that you win these early games, the bit more you can be strategic when it comes to later games. It's not about winning every game, it's about winning every series. And with the Braves doing what they're doing again, the Braves now need to go Let's see they are what are they? Twenty two and ten now twenty one? In ten, twenty two and ten, twenty two and ten. So that means so they're at thirty two games.

00:45:52
Speaker 3: Are you about to do math? Are you about to do math live on air?

00:45:55
Speaker 2: Yeah?

00:45:56
Speaker 1: So they've got one hundred and thirty games left, So that means that they need to win sixty eight games. They need to go sixty eight.

00:46:06
Speaker 2: And probably they can see steam.

00:46:08
Speaker 3: I can see the steam coming out of your ears right now.

00:46:11
Speaker 4: Wow.

00:46:11
Speaker 1: They need to go sixty eight and sixty two for the rest of the season for them to get to ninety wins, Is that right?

00:46:20
Speaker 2: Yeah?

00:46:21
Speaker 1: Sixty eight and sixty two. If they're twenty two to ten right now, sixty eight and sixty two. For them to get to ninety wins, that's them winning every series versus every games.

00:46:32
Speaker 2: Am I right about that? Twenty two plus sixty eight is ninety.

00:46:35
Speaker 3: Tips they win every If you win every series, you win like one hundred and five games.

00:46:41
Speaker 2: But I get that.

00:46:42
Speaker 1: But the point that I'm getting at is is that we talk about that ninety win mark.

00:46:46
Speaker 3: Oh okay, I see.

00:46:47
Speaker 1: Mean the magic mark for them to really to probably win the division or at least be in a strong position when it comes to the wild card.

00:46:54
Speaker 2: Yeah. Probably.

00:46:55
Speaker 3: I mean now that the Mets and the Phillies are where they are, Yeah, ninety wins probably gets you pretty close.

00:47:00
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would imagine ninety wins probably get you in that second by spot as well. So the point that I'm getting at is is you have gotten to your fifth of the way through the season. You have won twelve games above five hundred. You're at that pace, so you may win it. You may be winning at one hundred and five hundred and ten game pace, but you've only got to be six games above five hundred the rest of the year for you to get to ninety wins. Yeah, that's what comes into play when the Braves are making these decisions to either save their bullpen or to make right roster decisions. Again, I'm right, Yeah, twenty two and ten right now, twenty two plus sixty eight to ninety ten plus sixty two seventy two, I've got it.

00:47:34
Speaker 2: I did it. Okay, you're welcome.

00:47:38
Speaker 3: I never doubted you for a second other than every.

00:47:40
Speaker 1: Second story, Stephen, you're for faced off a completely different story of doing you know, Scott Steiner math those wwet and AKM.

00:47:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're welcome. The point that I'm.

00:47:51
Speaker 1: Getting at is is that the Braves start has given them every reason to be strategic with.

00:47:58
Speaker 2: What they're doing.

00:47:59
Speaker 1: So in there's games, when there's these schedule losses that occur, it's for a good reason. It's to preserve the overall quality of our team to be able to go to endure the stretch of the season so they can all be fresh when it matters. And when you also put into perspective that we were all struggling coming out of spring training to even call this team a potential eighty five eighty six win team. The fact that they only have to be six games about five hundred for the rest of the year to get to ninety wins. That's a really good spot to be in, especially if you can continue to say that after the road trip that they have coming ahead.

00:48:32
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, they're in a good spot obviously, and it helps that the rest of the division. You know, Miami. Listen, Miami just went to LA and won a series against the Dodgers, So maybe I need to give Miami a more respect than I have. I just I always assume the Marlins are going to suck, and I kind of let them surprise me. Maybe they're good. Listen, Sandey Alikantra is still a monster, and they've got some good young hitters. I'll tell you what. I was way more impressed with Miami than I was with Philadelphia. We played both, so maybe they're decent. But yeah, it doesn't feel like it feels like it feels like it's gonna be a pretty bad division. Honestly, right now, I'm not saying the Mets and the Phillies are completely dead, but they've started so poorly like they're gonna have to play their ass off just to get to like eighty wins, eighty five wins. So the Braves are a great spot. I'm not confident enough of my mass kills to break it. I can still see you. You are you are double check it. How many times have you done that math in your head? You've done it like six.

00:49:30
Speaker 1: Times negatively plus or minus the square word to B squared minus four ac all over two A.

00:49:36
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly.

00:49:37
Speaker 2: That is a quadratic formula.

00:49:39
Speaker 3: That is the quadratic formula. Actually, so yeah, the Breves are a great spot. Just keep winning series. Obviously, Colorado is no joke. It's no easy place to play. Strider coming back, it's gonna help a ton. Uh, the offense is gonna be tested in this road trip. I guess some of the pitching they've got coming. And I'm always worried about May. It feels like May is always the time of year with the Braves, off kind of goes into a little bit of a lull. They've got some guys who their worst month is May. It always feels like like they start out well, then May they kind of lull it out, and then come June they pick it back up again. So we'll see I'm always a little worried about May. But and along West coast road trip doesn't help. But they're in a great spot right now, so just keep going.

00:50:23
Speaker 2: Steven, let me ask you this question.

00:50:24
Speaker 1: Have you ever come to the cross section of Shakespeare in math?

00:50:30
Speaker 3: I don't know what the hell that means.

00:50:33
Speaker 1: To be or not to be? When is the answer not to be? What when you're trying to solve for two A Thank you so much for joining us here on the Here a Territory podcast. Of course, you can find Steven Tolward at b Underscore Outliers all across Twitter slash x. If you want to ask him to do a math formula, make sure you go ahead and tag me. I'm at Stat's sac on Twitter slash x as well. Hammer Territory across all forms of social media, part of the Foul Territory family of family of podcasts. You know what potentially would help.

00:51:09
Speaker 2: Stevens could do math better?

00:51:10
Speaker 1: He had a glass of meal. Until next time, go Brade, We'll talk to you again soon here Hammer Territory Podcast