688: Mailbag 10/7/22

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Speaker 1: This is the lad podcast with your host JJ Zachera j J zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's jj zacher eeson in this episode six hundred and eighty eight of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thank you for tuning in before getting the mailback questions. This week, I want to remind you about FanDuel Faceoff. Fandel face Off is where you compete in quick, fun games against other real people for real cash. And there's all sorts of games that you're familiar with, like Home Run, Derby, Wheel of Fortune, puzzle and strategy games, and there's more on the way. Contests are action packed and lasts between two to five minutes, so you can plan on your couch, waiting in line during a commercial break wherever, and on your schedule. Plus, you can practice for free anytime, whether it's head to head, multiplayer or larger tournaments. Fandel face Off is something for you plus and most contests will be matched against players of similar skill level, so you're never totally overmatched even as a beginner. Face Off is also tied to your FanDuel accountant wallet, so you can eat easily use your daily fantasy funds. Or sportsbook winnings in the app. Visitfandle dot com slash Faceoff or download the Fandle Faceoff app in the Apple App Store today to get in the game. Agent location restrictions supply void were prohibited seefandle dot Com Slash Faceoff hyphen terms for terms and conditions. The first question this week is from Patreon. It's from Jeff. It says you were higher on Juju in the preseason as the most likely Cup like breakout. What are you seeing from him thus far and what do you think his range of outcomes looks like now. Yeah, So for a little background with this question, one of my bold predictions, with an emphasis on the word bold, it was that Juju Smith Schuster would be this year's Cooper Cup. Of course, I mentioned that I didn't actually believe that he would beat Cup because that would be insane. Cooper Cup had one of the best seasons of all time, if not the best. But it was just to look at the similarities between the two players up until that point in their careers. Slock guys offensive upgrades showed the ability to produce in the past that kind of stuff, and I talked about this in my Draft Guide and over the sas, but middle round wide receivers who are in year five or year six of their career, they generally pan out at a pretty good rate. It's why another one of my bold predictions was that Christian Kirk would outscore DK Metcalf because Kirk fit that mold as well. So that's why I was quote high on those wide receivers entering the season. Juju hasn't worked out though he's clearly not having any sort of breakout. But I feel like how people feel about Juju versus the reality of Juju, it's a little bit off. He hasn't been great, but he's been fine when you combine his production with his peripherals. He had a miserable Week two game, but he's been a top forty wide receiver in three of his four games without scoring a touchdown. Like if a touchdown went his way, even just one touchdown, we might have a slightly different view of Juju right now as a market, the fact that he's got a nineteen percent target chair in a Patrick Mahomes offense is not a bad thing at all. This isn't me saying that he's a stud or that drafting him as a wide receiver too. Was a good call it wasn't. It likely will end up being a bad call. But I still lean more by than sell with Juju Smith Schuster because touchdown regression is going to hit at some point, and he's seen more than twenty percent of Kansas City's targets in three or four games this year. So hold on to Juju if you have them. The nice question is from Twitter is from at Amende zero zero four favorite podcast and fantasy football analysts by far. Thank you question. Now that Zach Wilson is back, it looked like the favorite is Corey Davis. Judging from last week, Should we be lower on Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and or Tyler Conklin. What approach should we use when assessing favorite receivers and changes in quarterbacks? So we should always lead with talent first, regardless of who's under center. And I think we'd all agree that Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson they have talent profiles that are better than Corey Davis at this stage in Davis's career. But also we can look at peripheral numbers to help us out here too. It's really important to not just take the final stat line of a game, or even the target shair in a single game and a strong conclusions. Corey Davis led the Jets wide receivers and targets this past week, Yes, but he was third on the team in routes run. Garrett Wilson ran ahead of Corey Davis for the first time this year. I just don't think that we can take one game and say Zach Wilson favors this guy. Matchups can dictate that very very easily, or honestly just the player having a good game. I think at this point you're looking at Garrett Wilson as the most valuable Jets receiver, then Elijah Moore, and then Corey Davis. I just don't know how often in a twelve team league're gonna feel really really confident starting Corey Davis when there are two very legit wide receivers now playing ahead of him. Maybe I'm wrong with that. I just think it's logical, and you all know how I feel about Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson as talents at this point. The NXT question from Patrion is from Kyle. It says how much of Kyle Pitts's output so far is simply because the Falcons haven't thrown the ball that much second to last in team targets, but Pitts is still commanding a rock solid target share. Differently, how much positive regression is there in that offense and how can we assess what Pitts would likely assume as a result, So the volume piece is definitely playing some role. Atlanta's second to last in pass attempts right now with ninety eight. Only Chicago has thrown the ball less than Atlanta so far. The problem is that Atlanta has been a run heavy team just in general both an overall pass rate and neutral script pass rate. They've run the ball more than they've thrown it in both of those situations. So basically, yes, volume in that offense, it kind of sucks right now. Kyle Pitts also just hasn't converted that well on his targets, at least from a catch rate standpoint. Among the thirty four tight ends this year with ten or more targets, and this is pre Thursday Night Football, Pits ranks thirty third of thirty four in catch rate. Only Isaiah likely has a worse receptions over targets rate. So you've got an Atlanta team that's forced the issue on the ground. You have Kyle Pitts not converting, and you also have the coaching staff not using Pits as much as they probably should. He rings well outside the top ten a tight end in route participation. That just compounds the issue. If you want a glass half full outlook here, Atlanta is not that good of a team, and they get the Bucks forty nine ers in Bengals over their next three that could force them to throw a little bit more, but it's obviously not a good start for Kyle Pitts. And yes, the passing volume is definitely part of the problem, but it's not all of the problem. This last question is from at emphasis Sarcasm on Twitter. It says, how do you feel about quote trade analyzers within fantasy apps? Especially when some people won't accept a trade unless the app tells them it's good. I feel they hurt more than they help, So I don't think they necessarily hurt because those trade analyzers are the opinion of one source. A lot of times you can exploit them. If you know factually that your league mates are going to use a specific analyzer, then you should use that to your advantage to see how it's valuing particular players. A lot of times those things are based on VORP formulas, and while value over replacement analysis is fine, it's definitely not everything. I wrote about that extensively in the Late Round Draft guide, so I would try to use analyzers to my advantage. I don't think there's a real problem with them overall, because you can exploit them. The next question is from Patreon. It's from justin. It says, is Jared Goff sustainable and if so, when does he become ranked above guys like Wilson, Rogers, Brady, etc. So I think Goff can be a viable fantasy option this year, and I think, aside from probably Tom Brady, who's got a chance to really see more upside with healthy weapons, Goff is sort of in that Wilson Rogers group where they're just not an every week starter at this point. And remember I'm recording this before Russ plays on Thursday night. You should be open to playing different quarterbacks each week if need be. It's not full blown streaming though. To me. Streaming the position is where you're actively looking for new quarterbacks every single week. But there's a group of quarterbacks like Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence. You could throw in there. They're players that I'll feel fine you in averag or good matchups, but if the matchup is tough, I might look for a streamer. So I think Goff fits that category. The defense is really not playing well and the offense is needing to keep pace, and fortunately they play in a dome which helps things. But I highly doubt that Detroit finishes the year first in offensive touchdowns. Right now, they're three touchdowns ahead of any other team. Like I mentioned this I think last week on here, But when we're really early in the season like this, some of these blow up offenses are going to really separate themselves from the pack, and players on their team will in fantasy. Like for example, Detroit scored eighteen offensive touchdowns this year eighteen and four games. There are a handful of teams that have only scored six. The Panthers, the Bears, the Cowboys, and the Broncos and Colts pre Thursday Night, the Steelers, They've all had six touchdowns through four games. The Lions have scored three times as many touchdowns as those teams. So even if players on those bad teams like the Steelers, if they're separating themselves from their teammates and target share backfield chair would have you even if their peripherals look good, their overall fantasy numbers still probably aren't amazing. Because the entire team has scored six times in four games. They're not finding the end zone. Now. I'm not bringing that up to say that Detroit will start playing like those offenses. I'm just saying that offenses can overperform and underperform across stretches, and when that happens, you really can see a difference. You can really notice it in fantasy football. Like think of it this way. This kind of thing happened between weeks eight and eleven, we probably wouldn't even flinch. We would just be saying, yeah, Detroit's playing well right now. It's just that it's the start of the year, and this is all the data that we have to work off of. The only data that we have is that the Detroit Lions have the best offense in the NFL. I don't think it's reasonable to expect that to continue. I mean, so far this year, the Lions have scored a touchdown for every about ninety seven yards on offense. When the average across the NFL is a touchdown for every one hundred and fifty nine yards, the going to be better as an offense than what most people thought entering the season. The defense stinks, the weapons are there, they're in a dome, They've got a really strong coaching staff. I mean, there are definitely reasons to believe in the Lions offense, but keeping up this pace highly unlikely. That's why Goff is likely more of that type of quarterback that you can play in good and average matchups, but you might want to shy away from him in tougher ones. So the final question this week is from Tommy on Patreon, and this question actually became kind of a conversation. So first Tommy asked, was trying to upgrade a quarterback, would you trade Brady and Alvin Kamara for Mahomes non PPR league. I also have CMC, Joe Mixon, JK. Dobbins, and Melvin Gordon at running back. Again, I'm recording this before Thursday Night Football. So I then responded to that, and I said that I would not do that trade. I would not give up Tom Brady and Alvin Kamara for Patrick Mahomes. My rest of season rankings have Kamara well above Mahomes. And then I noted that it's important to not just do dear and get them done because you're loaded at a position, and he responded with quote, interesting, I can only start two to three running backs in my league format, so I'm loaded in the running back position. Doesn't it make sense to dish some of those guys who may otherwise sit on my bench to upgrade a quarterback or wide receiver so I can get a more solid starting lineup. Now, I'm taking this conversation to the Mailbag episode, So here we are, and I'm gonna begin with an analogy. Pretend you're playing golf. You just finished the front nine, You've got three balls left in your bag, and you know that you're a pretty average golfer. You know that there's some chance that you might lose all of those balls on the back nine. Not pretend that in your bag you've got two drivers. You carry more clubs than you should because you're a casual golfer. You have two drivers. One of them you don't use a whole lot anymore, but it's still a pretty valuable club. Drivers are expensive, are you going to trade that one driver to your friend for golf balls. Are you gonna sit there and say, I need some golf balls, I'll give you this driver for six balls. Of course not. The driver could be worth well over one hundred dollars. A half dozen golf balls wouldn't come close to that. What you're essentially doing here with this trade of Tom Brady and Alvin Kamara for Patrick Mahomes, you're trading that driver for golf balls. You have an excess of running backs, Yeah, you have Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, JK. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara, Melvin Gordon. You have a good stable of running backs. But number one, you can start three of them. Number two, injuries happen. Number three. Just because you have a lot of something doesn't mean that you should just trade it away for less. A player's cost is a player's cost, regardless of team context. Right like the Browns wouldn't trade Kareem Hunt for a lower price just because they have Nick Chubb. It's fine to try and upgrade your lineup. You should be trying to upgrade your lineup. But I still have Alvin Kamara well above Patrick Mahomes and fantasy because of positional scarcity and the ceiling that we know Kamara has when he healthy. If you want to get Mahomes, that is totally totally fine. This isn't even really a Patrick Mahomes argument. If you want to upgrade your starting lineup, you should be doing that. My point here is to not force it. Even if you have the goods, even if you're really deep at a position, don't do a trade like that. When you're devaluing one of your own players. You should be able to get an even better deal done. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and effort to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Remember check out Lateround dot com. Join the free newsletter from my fifteen Transactions column every Tuesday morning, and join the Patreon. Patreon has rest of season rankings, weekly rankings, a great discord community, and much more. Thanks for listening this week everyone, I greatly greatly appreciate it. Good luck in week five. I'll talk to you next week,