554: Week 4 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Label Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen, the editor in chief at FANDL and at number fire dot com in this episode five hundred and fifty four of the Late Round podcast the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. Week three was a pretty good one for the Sleeper Show. While I was wrong about Justin Fields, although I guess I was kind of right because I talked about his volatility, I was right to point out both Emmanuel Sanders and aj Green, who were both top twenty four wide receivers. And then given the types of plays that I'm talking about on this show, a lot of players were fine. Jalen Regor had eight targets, so the process was there for him. Cordero Patterson was a top twenty back, Daniel Jones and Derek Carr were reasonable enough streamers, and then the players that consider benching that was good too. Brandon Ayuk was finally able to do something for fantasy managers, but Miles ga Skin, Ronald Jones, Damien Harris, and Corey Davis all ended up being pretty mediocre to bad plays. Not everything was perfect, some picks weren't good, but overall it was a solid week. Before getting into sleepers for Week four, did you know that fandal is giving new users an exclusive offer to play NFL Daily Fantasy for free all season long. All you have to do is sign up for fandel Daily Fantasy, and you'll receive one free voucher. For each remaining week of the NFL season, you'll receive your voucher pond sign up to fandle Daily Fantasy, and vouchers will automatically apply to each weekly entry. Head over to fandle dot com and sign up to play daily Fantasy football. Eligibility restrictions apply new users only. Go to fandle dot com or download the fandle app for more details. I've got to admit this show is getting harder and harder with the percent roster numbers normalizing a little bit. I'm doing my best to stay within the completely arbitrary parameters that I said at the beginning of the season, though, And speaking of arbitrary parameters, let's start with players who are rostered in fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues but more than twenty four percent of them. Streaming is kind of tough at quarterback this week, but I think Sam Darnald can work. Donald scored just four fewer points than Russell Wilson this year in standard scoring leagues. But we've got to keep in mind that he's averaging a rushing touchdown per game. He's not going to finish the season with seventeen rushing touchdowns. The good news is that because he's scoring on the ground, he's not scoring through the air, and his touchdown rate is under three percent as a result, so we could see that bump up while his rushing touchdowns drop. Dallas isn't the best matchup in the world on paper. Through three games, They've actually been the fifth toughest matchup when looking at adjustin fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. But this game has a pretty good over under according to Fandles Sportsbook, and this could end up being the first game where the Panthers have to actually air it out. That could skew their touchdown totals towards the pass benefiting Donald. Now I don't absolutely love Darnald this week, but it's a rough week for quarterback streamers in general. Next up, is there a pair of Buffalo Bills that I talked about as ads on the fifteen Transaction show earlier this week. Emmanuel Sanders consistently makes this episode because his percent roster numbers just aren't going up the way they should. I'll just reiterate some of the things that I said earlier this week. He's been the deep ball threat for Buffalo and he has one of the highest average depth of targets in the league. Seven of his twenty targets have gone fifteen or more air yards. He's seen sixteen and a half percent of Buffalo's targets. And now he gets a Houston team that's seen the second highest percentage of pass attempts against them go fifteen or more air yards. You have to love Josh Allen and that passing attack in this game. And that includes the other Buffalo Bill, Dawson Knox. Like I said on the fifteen Transactions episode, Knox has run more routes than Cole Beasley over the last two weeks. He's run just five fewer routes in Stefan Diggs. Now the Bills have an implied team total of almost thirty two points. You don't get that very often. I just want pieces of this offense this week because they should roll on this show. The only running that I can really talk about starting or pass catching backs because all other running backs are rostered at a pretty high rate. So I'm gonna go back to Kenneth Gainwell as a flex option this week. Do I absolutely adore Gainwell? No, it's kind of hard to considering he's been the RB twenty two, thirty eight, and forty two through three weeks, but he's seen about an eleven percent target share of this season in that Philly offense, and he acts as the hurry up back. Considering the Eagles get the Chiefs this week in a game where there's seven point home underdogs, that role could be busy. And then the last player in this tier that I don't mind is Nelson Agaler. Jacobe Myers is the Patriots wide receiver that you should prefer, but Agalore is rostered in a lot fewer leagues, so he's getting a shout out today. On the season, Agalore's run the second most routes among all Patriots by decent margin, and he's seen a little over fifteen percent of their targets. He's not someone I'd really care about for fantasy most weeks, but I'm intrigued by the matchup against Tampa Bay. The Bucks have been a defense that's great against the run, and they struggle against the pass. That's been evident already in twenty twenty one their top seven and adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. But they've been the best team for quarterbacks and the best team for wide receivers. Agaler hasn't been used the same way that Jacoby Myers has. Myers has eleven more targets this year, but Agaler has more air yards and the Patriots may have to air it out against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay's faced the most pass attempts this year by far. The average team has faced thirty five pass attempts per game. Tampa Bay is at forty eight. We may not get a ton of opportunities where the Patriots throw at a high rate, so Agaler makes some sense as a sleeper this week. I've got four players in this next tier of players, which are players rostered in ten to twenty four percent of leagues, and then I got an extra one in the next tier. Let's start with something that I talked about last week, and that's Jalen Rigor. As I just mentioned, the Eagles are underdogs this week that could force more throws. That's similar to what we saw in Week three. Jalen Hurts had thirty nine pass attempts last week when Raggers saw eight targets against Dallas, and now has a twenty point four percent target share this season against the team that's been seventh worst against wide receivers this year when adjusted for strength of opponent. Ragger's not a terrible play. I also kind of don't mind Terris Marshall this week. I talked about Darnold already in this higher scoring game that we might see, and Marshall has a shot to be part of that. Not only is Christian McCaffrey out, which could change the way that Carolina operates, but in Week three Marshall saw his usage get a lot closer to Robbie Anderson. In Week one, Marshall was about thirty percentage points lower in snapshare compared to Anderson in Week two twenty two percentage points last week, less than three percentage points. That's reflected in routes run in target share two. According to Pro Football Focus, Anderson ran thirty three routes in Week one to Marshall's twenty three in Week two thirty five to twenty four in Week three thirty one to twenty six. On the season, Marshall's seen fourteen percent of Carolina's targets Anderson is at eleven percent. If we see Marshall in more two wide receiver sets, that's just gonna increase his production each week. And again we're playing into the idea here that this could be Carolina's first real negative game script or even neutral game script. They've generally just been playing with a lead that's not guaranteed against Dallas. With Marshall seeing that uptick last week with no CMC, and with Marshall leading that receiving group in red zone targets so far this year, maybe this is the week that it all comes together. Dalton Schultz actually has had similar usage to Blake Jarwin this year. He's only run three more routes, but his target share is almost four percentage points higher, and he's just looked good. He had a monster game in Week three, and he's got a chance to continue that work into week four. Carolina's tight end points allowed numbers look bad on paper. They rank fifth best in points allowed to the position, but when adjusting that for opponent, they're just an average matchup. I think given Schultz's recent performance, he's got to be on your radar. And then finally, I'm gonna go back to age. It's not easy finding a low rostered player who's got an eighteen percent target chair in one of the best offenses in the league, period, and the Cardinals should see a lot of passing volume in their matchup against the Rams this week. They're four and a half point underdogs in the game with a fifty five point over under. It's one of those games that you just want exposure to. Let's talk deep sleepers, or players who are rostered in under ten percent of Yahoo leagues, who you may be able to work into your starting lineups this week. First off, Taylor Heineke, the football team gets Atlanta this week, and it's in a game that's projected to be close with a forty eight and a half point over under. The Falcons have been totally average and adjusted fantasy points allowed this year to quarterbacks, and they entered the season with one of the worst secondaries, so I'm not worried about the matchup. Heinike himself is coming off back to back top twelve quarterback performances, and one thing that he's doing that's not getting talked about that much is that he's running the football. He had eight carries last week and one of those carries went for a touchdown. During a week where streaming is tough, I think that he could give you strong enough QB two numbers to not sink your team. Here's one that's gonna surprise you. Kadarius Tony. Yes, Kadarius Tony. Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are both banged up. If Sterling Shepherd is out, I would expect Kadarius Tony to see a lot of slot work in the Giants offense. Shepherd's played seventy four percent of his snaps from the slot this year, and even though Tony's action has been limited, he's second on the team with a sixty two percent slot rate. It was eighty two percent last week, which was the game where Shepherd got hurt. If Shepherd's out, Tony actually has a decent slot matchup against the Saints New Orleans so far this year, ranked second and percent of targets that have gone to that area of the field, and their first in slot targets allowed overall and second in slot receptions allowed. That makes Kadarius Tony kind of intriguing. Van Jefferson's peripherals continue to be there. He's still leading Robert Woods in the route's run department on the year, and he ranes five fewer routes than Woods last week. Van also had a sixteen percent target chair last week. That boosted his season long share to about thirteen percent. You may not feel great starting in most weeks. I totally get it, but at least this week he's in a potential shootout against the Cardinals, So like AJ Green, he's a cheap way to get exposure to that game. And then the last player in this tier that I want to talk about today is Nick Westbrook Akine. AJ Brown and Julio Jones are both banged up. That's gonna give or potentially give other pass catchers in that offense a chance to step up. Westbrook Akine is the one who probably benefits most from these injuries. Chester Rogers is the team slot guy. He's played eighty four percent of his snaps from the slot this year. That's probably why we saw Westbrook a Kinne run more routes than Rogers last week with AJ Brown exiting early. He's also the one with size in this offense, aside from Julio Jones and AJ Brown, of course, but Westbrook A Kyne is six foot three, two hundred and sixteen pounds, so there's some intrigue here. I think he makes sense as a sleeper as long as both Julio Jones and AJ Brown out. If just one of them are out, the appeal isn't as strong, but it's still there because he should find the field quite a bit. A lot of people have asked me about Laviscus Channault and what to do with him, and the answer is, you can't start him. He's got a seventeen and a half percent target here on the season, and he has yet to finish higher than wide receiver forty two and weekly PPR scoring. That's partially because of how he's being used. A lot of it is because of how he's being used. Among seventy six relevant wide receivers this year, he has the fifth lowest average at the target. He's a borderline drop candidate in ten to twelve team leagues. The Raiders passing attack is tough to trust this week too. I talked about this on the ten Trends episode yesterday, but the Chargers have been really good against the pass this year, despite facing Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes and the weapons that those teams have. The Chargers are seventh best in passing yards allowed, and they rank first and adjusted fantasy points allowed the quarterbacks second to wide receivers and fifth to tight ends. I like the Raiders passing attack moving forward expectations in Week four. I've got two running backs who are rostered in seventy five percent or more of leagues that you could consider benching here in Week four. The first one's kind of obvious. It's Damien Harris. The Buccaneers have been tough on running backs dating back to the last couple of seasons, and Harris has been a one dimensional running back. Maybe the James White injury opens things up for him. But considering they were using Brandon Bolden last week, and considering it was reported that Harris couldn't be trusted in a pass blocking role, I'm not sure his target chair is gonna skyrocket. He's got a five percent share this season, and I think that's what we have to project for him moving forward. He's tough to trust against Tampa Bay. And then let's talk about Tyson Williams. Here's the good news about William's disappearing act. In week three, he played fifty percent of the team snaps. That was most among all Ravens running backs and right in line with weeks one and two, and he was the only Baltimore running back to see a target. Here's the bad news. Latavius Murray still saw more touches and that target share was still pretty bad. I think Williams is still the one A in that backfield. He's still the one that I would want most. But this is honestly the Ravens backfield in the nutshell. It's a headache. It's gonna be a headache. Tyson will have some decent days, but it's not going to be easy to predict, and it makes it even harder when they've got a tough matchup against Denver this weekend. Now, let's talk about streaming defenses before we go. I talked up the Titans on the fifteen Transactions episode as a streaming defense this week. They're now rostered in like sixty percent of Yahoo leagues. So let's move on to a few other options. In Week four, first to Chicago, the Bears get the Lions at home, and again with a really low forty two point over under. Chicago's actually not been bad defensively this year. I know Week one was a little rough, but they also faced the Rams. They've been defense two to thirteen over the last two weeks with nine total sacks. Detroit's been a top five team to attack in terms of adjusted Fantasy points allowed, so I think Chicago works. I also like Cincinnati on Thursday Night against Jacksonville for obvious reasons, but Jacksonville has been a fringe top five team for team defenses in fantasy. The Bengals are at home, they're big favorites, and they also haven't been that bad defensively to start the year, So I like the Bengals quite a bit. And then Miami works this week too, their home favorites. The over under in that game against Indianapolis is forty two and a half, so that's all good. And according to next Gen Stats, Miami has been setting the blitz at the highest rate in the league. Carson Wentz has been below average and passer rating under pressure to start the year. The Colts have allowed almost three sacks per game to start the season, to go along with two top twelve performances to opposing defenses. So I think the Dolphins work. That's going to do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks everyone. We got one more show this week, the Mailbag episode. I'll talk to you then,