574: Week 9 Sleepers

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zacher Retha j J. Zacher reson What's up everyone? It's JJ Zacharyeson, the editor in chief at fandel and at number fire dot com in this episode five hundred and seventy four of the Late Round podcast the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast Network. Thanks for tuning in. There were some great calls and there were some not so great calls last week. Let's start with the great calls. Jamal Agnew came through as a deep sleeper and Pat Fryermuth was a good tight end sleeper as well. I talked up Cole Beasley in his slot matchup against the Dolphins and he crushed them. Tyler Conklin was the tight end eight. Those were probably the best calls of the week. The quarterback streamers were fine enough, but there were some bad sleeper suggestions like Kenneth Gainwell, who I talked about on the fifteen Transaction show this week, Darius Slayton who did absolutely nothing, and Marquez Callaway who did very little as well. Bad calls are bound to happen on a show like this, but I can't celebrate the wins without looking at the losses. That's not fair to you, guys. I'd say it was an average week overall, though. Let's keep getting better here in Week nine. Before get into the sleepers this week, I want to let you know that the Breeders' Cup is set to begin this weekend, and Fandel is celebrating by giving you a chance to get in on the action with some enhanced odds. Starting this Thursday, new players who sign up on FanDuel Racing will get twenty to one odds on any horse to win a del Mar race on Friday or Saturday. That's any horse to win, even the favorites. The Breeders Cup will be here before you know it, so bet horse racing right now from your phone with the super easy to use Fandel Racing app now five dollars max bet. Download the Fandel Racing app or visit racing dootfandle dot com for more details. Eligibility restrictions apply. We'll kick things off with this first tier of sleepers, which are players rostered in twenty five to fifty percent of Yahoo leagues, and we'll start with a super solid quarterback streamer this week to a tongue of Ioloa Tua gets used in this week, and the Texans are the eighth best matchup in the league for quarterbacks when looking at my adjusted points allowed method. The Dolphins, according to Fandals Sportsbook, have an implied team total over twenty six points this week, And like I said on the fifteen Transaction Show earlier in the week, Tua hasn't been all that bad. He's had two incredibly usable weeks out of three games since coming back from injury, with that one down contest coming last week against a really tough team in Buffalo. Buffalo is actually the toughest team in the league against quarterbacks, and he still wasn't even that bad, so I think he's a great option in Week nine. Jeremy McNichols is still rostered in fewer than fifty percent of Yahoo leagues even after waivers, and he needs to obviously be on your radar because there's no more Derrick Henry. The matchup against the Rams isn't really that good considering LA is above average against running backs and the Titans are pretty big underdogs, but I think this sets up pretty clearly as a McNichols game, not only because of game script, but because he's been on the roster this year. The Rams are also eighth in the NFL in adjusted target share allowed to running backs, so we could see some targets funneled McNichols way, like we've seen at times this season. He's a decent option in PPR formats this week, even though the matchup is not ideal. Boston Scott still has a percent roster number under fifty percent. I think he's the preferred option for Philadelphia this week against the Chargers, especially considering LA has been a team that opposing offenses have found success running on and they haven't found success throwing on them. Scott got the start this past week and saw a lot of first half work for the Eagles before that game got into garbage time, and I'd expect him to see the most work in the Philly backfield this week, but don't be surprised if Kenneth Gainwell gets some receiving work. If this game script moves away from the Eagles. Boston Scott still has a cap ceiling because we really don't know how he's going to be utilized in different game scripts, but he's still flexworthy. With Henry Ruggs no longer on the Raiders, We'll probably see a slight boost of the existing pass catchers on that team. Darren Waller, Hunter Renfro, and Brian Edwards could all see higher target shairs without rugs In his fourteen to fifteen percent share this week against the Giants. I'm kind of into Hunter Renfro. He already has a twenty percent target share on the season, but he's facing a team in New York that hasn't been very good against slot guys this year. Renfro has played about sixty percent of his snaps from the slot this year, according to Pro Football Focus, and the Giants are eighth and slot yards allowed and they're six the percentage of targets against that go to the slot. I think Renfro makes a lot of sense this week. And then finally in this tier, Rashod Bateman. We've seen Bateman in two games now. In those contests, he's averaged a target chair per game of eighteen percent. Now he gets a Minnesota team that ranks seventh and adjusted points allowed to wide receivers and Baltimore has a nice implied team total this week, I think Bateman could have a strong performance. This next tier is for players rostered in ten to twenty five percent of Yahoo leagues and will kick things off with Tayso Hill. I talked about Hill in the fifteen Transaction Show, so I'll just reiterate that information here. Last season, during his four starts, he was a higher end QB one. He averaged over fifty rushing yards per game, and he scored four touchdowns on the ground during those four starts. If he's back and healthy, he'll face an Atlanta team that ranks fifth and adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks. He's a strong option this week, and he could be a strong option moving forward, and it's all because of his rushing. I like Tyler Conklin last week, and I like him again this week. Baltimore is a really good matchup for tight ends. They've allowed the second most adjusted points to the position per game, and they've given up the eighth highest adjusted target chair to the position this year. Conklin's been involved in the Minnesota offense all year with a fourteen percent target chair, and he's coming off a game where he had a twenty one percent chair in a game that could end up being a higher scoring one. On this slate, I think Conklin makes sense and I'm on pat Fryarmouth again as well. He's seen target shaars of eighteen percent and twenty percent over his last two games, and they just happen to be games that Pittsburgh's played without Juju Smith Schuster. Eric he Brown was out last week, but even if he goes, I'd expect Friarmuth to be involved in this offense similar to what we saw two games ago against Seattle. He's a huge red zone threat and he continues to get involved in that offense. He's someone that needs to be rostered, and you can start him this week. I don't absolutely love Jamison Crowder this week, but I think he does work as a waiver wires start. He's averaging almost a twenty percent target share per game. In his four games played this year, He's seen nine, six, six, and nine targets. It's pretty nice. He had over eighteen percent of New York's targets in last week's game with Mike White under center, and he ran with the starters. The Colts have been a completely average matchup for slot receivers this year, but the target share alone should give crowded at least some sort of floor in PPR formats. And then the last player in this year that I want to talk about is Van Jefferson. I feel like I've talked about Jefferson on and off all year, but I still think he's way way under ross Over. On Yahoo, he has a fourteen percent target share this year, but he's had back to back games with over a seventeen percent share that's turned into thirteen targets in total, and he scored fourteen to twelve PPR points. He's been a wide receiver two and a wide receiver three over his last two games. This is coincided with the Shawn Jackson not getting as much run in that offense. Now Jackson's not on the team anymore, but in week five, for example, Jackson ran fifteen routes. Van Jefferson ran twenty three, which was significantly lower than where Robert Woods and Cooper Cup were at. In Week six, Jackson ran nine, and in that week Jefferson was still ten or so routes behind Robert Woods and Cooper Cup. But then in week seven, Jackson only ran three routes, Jefferson ran forty and Woods in Cup they ran forty one. This past week, Jackson didn't play. Jefferson actually tied both Woods and Cup with thirty one routes run. The lack of de Sean Jackson has completely coincided with Van Jasjefferson's highest usage games of the season against the Tennessee secondary that's allowed the second most adjusted points to wideouts this year. You have to love Van Jefferson this week, and if he's still on your waiver wire, you should be adding him. It's time to look at the deep sleepers or players rostered in fewer than ten percent of leagues you could consider starting. I'm gonna go back to Jamal Agnew this week. He's led the Jags and targets since DJ Shark went down, and even though this matchup against the Bills is pretty bad, it's a lot easier for a slot guy like Agnew. Agnew has been playing over three quarters with snaps from the slot, and Buffalo although they're still good against the slot, they've funneled targets to that area of the field at the third highest rate in the league this year. I don't love Agnew because it's still a tough matchup, but the slot is more advantageous against Buffalo than the perimeter is. That's why Agnew can still work now in that same game. But on the other side, I think Tommy Sweeney is kind of interesting as a deep tight end sleeper. I thought the Bills may use a little bit more Gabriel Davis with Dawson Knox sidelined, But Sweeney only ran three fewer routes last week than Stefan Diggs and Cole Beasley. He only hit a nine point eight percent target chair. But if Knox is out again, that route participation could come in handy against a Jags defense that's allowed the third most adjusted points to the tight end position. And then the last deeper sleeper this week is Savon Achmed. This really is a game script play, and that's the case for most sleepers at the running back position, but Miami's a decent size favorite against Houston, and Houston's the tenth best matchup for running backs when looking at justin fantasy points allowed. Akmann played the second most snaps at running back for Miami last week, and he saw thirty seven percent of the team's running back rushes and a five point four percent target chair that led to seven attempts in two targets. But in a game where Miami should be more successful offensively, he could very easily see twelve to fifteen touches in this game. It's a deep play, but that's the point of the show, right. Let's look at a handful of players rostered in seventy five percent or more of leagues you could consider benching this week. Let's start with James Connor. The status of Kyler Murray is unknown at the time of this recording, but he's unlikely going to be one hundred percent this week. We're already seeing the line move in San Francisco's favor with the Cardinals now just one and a half point favorites. According to Fandels Sportsbook, the forty nine ers are actually a pretty decent team against running backs this year. They rank twenty first and adjusted points allowed, and Connor is a very scary bet in a game that could see more of a neutral or a negative game script if Murray doesn't go. Last week against Green Bay, which was Arizona's first loss, Connor only had five rush attempts and he saw his second lowest running back rush share of the season. He's touchdown dependent, and without Kyler Murray under center, or with a banged up Murray, I worry about how many touchdowns the Cardinals offense is going to score. Mike Davis saw his running back rush share jump back up to fifty percent this past week. That's great, and he actually had a twenty two percent target share. He finished with the most Mike Davis in twenty twenty one, line, scoring eleven point six PPR points. He's now been between ten and fourteen points scored in all but one game this year. I don't love his odds against New Orleans though, a team that's fit best against running backs. When looking at ad justin points allowed, He's just a very blah play to begin with, and now he gets a tough matchup, so in a lot of cases you may be able to bench him. I got two wide receivers for you that you could sit this week. One of them you should sit, and that's Alan Robinson. It's pretty obvious at this point, but the dude is still rostered in eighty two percent of Yahoo leagues. I'm a little bit worried about the Chicago offensive line holding up against the Pittsburgh front this week. Robinson just can't be started until we see more production and then DeVante Smith is also in a really tough spot. He scored single digit PPR points in two of his last three, but at least he's seen volume in those games. That's a good thing, and that's why he was a hold, or at least part of the reason he was a hold on this week's fifteen Transaction show. But the Chargers are a tough opponent for wide receivers, a very tough opponent. They ring first in the league and adjusted points allowed to the position, and they still haven't given up top twenty PPR performance this entire season. So DeVante Smith, he's tough to trust. Defensive streaming is kind of tough this week, but I'm sticking with Miami right now as the top option against Houston. I talked all about that on Tuesday show. I also don't mind Vegas, who are favorites against Daniel Jones and if Kyler Murray doesn't go watch for San Francisco. Like I said, it's a tough week for defensive streaming. I'm not completely bullish on any of these options. That's gonna do it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. We got one more show this week that drops tomorrow. It's The Mailbag Show. I'll talk to you then,