1006: Players to Avoid

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ zachera J J.

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Speaker 2: Zacher reson.

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Speaker 1: What's up everyone, It's JJ Zacharyesen in this episode one thousand and six of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by DraftKings. Thanks for tuning in. Football season's right around the corner, and there's no better way to lock in your fantasy dominance early than with Best Ball on DraftKings, where you draft once and ride your roster all season long. And right now, DraftKings giving all customers I can't miss offer Draft one, Get one, enter a lineup in the fifteen million dollars Best Ball contest for just twenty dollars, and you'll score another Best Ball ticket to play free for a share of that fifteen million, giving you a second shot to win big. It's easy. Just draft your dream team once, no weekly management required, and let your top scorers automatically start each week across the whole season. Every breakout star, every clutch play, every touchdown will count toward your quest for share of fifteen million dollars. As you know, I'm drafting over there and documenting things with becoming a Best Ball bro you can use the information from that show to help you out as well. So down with the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app now to draft your twenty dollars best ball lineup to play for a share of fifteen million dollars, and get a second ticket to play free for a share of that fifteen million. That's two chances to win big without ever setting your lineup again. Draft one, get one only on DraftKings. The Crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler New York call eight seven to seven eight, hope en Wyre Tex Hope NY to four six seven three six nine and Connecticut. Help is available from Problem Gambling Call eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org eighteen plus and most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibilia restrictions apply. Void were prohibited. One per customer enter the Best Ball fifteen million dollars Headliner contest by nine four to twenty five to go on bonus entry twenty dollars entry required. Reward expires in thirty days. See terms at DraftKings dot com. Slash NFL dash Best dash Ball sponsored by DK you Guys listened last week to rich Reebar myself talk about players the target and fantasy drafts this year, So today the the opposite is happening. It's players to avoid. This one's a little bit more difficult to do each year because it gets more of a reaction out of people when you say negative things about a player or a situation. If one of you guys listening to this likes that player, then naturally you're gonna want to defend your take. With that being said, it's important to remember that these takes are all based on cost. We're not avoiding these players no matter what. We're avoiding them based on where they typically go in fantasy drafts. Now, I keep saying we because this episode has another guest to help me out. I brought on my good friend Evan Silva from Establish the Run. He came prepared with five players that he's generally avoiding this year, and I've got five of my own. Two. We didn't fully agree on everything, but there's some good back and forth and I think you're gonna enjoy it. Okay, I won't bore you anymore. Here's my conversation on players to avoid with the great Evan Silva. All Right, Evan, I talked to Reeves last week with some players to target. Today, we're gonna do some players to avoid. It's always the harder one to do, I feel like, because people will take it more personally whenever we talk down on a player that they like. But again I introed with this, but this is all versus cost. We're not, you know, avoiding these guys no matter what, but it's all versus where they're generally being drafted. We'll go back and forth. We each have five guys, you know, add commentary at the end. The other person can and we can have a little back and forth. But you kick things off with your first player to avoid.

00:03:26
Speaker 2: Yeah. And actually every year I write a shy Away thirty list of thirty players to avoid in drafts, and you have me pick out five. So this was like perfect timing because I'm in the midst of writing that right now. Perfect I'm starting with Tyreek Hill. And if you think about it, there just hasn't been a single bit of positive news about Tyreek Hill since the end of the twenty twenty three season. Okay, ye, he's almost he's thirty one years old. He averaged a career low one point seven yards per route run. Last year, he almost got arrested outside of the Dolphins stadium before a game. Last season, he is clashed publicly with his head coach and with this quarterback, with Tua repeatedly, he's acted like a crazy person on social media. So I definitely think that Tyreek Hill can still run very fast in a straight line. I think that he will be able to run very fast in a straight line until he's fifty. You remember Darryl Green used to win the NFL's Fastest Man contests when he was like forty two at the end of his career. Tyreek Hill, I mean fast guys, stay fast. Yeah, but I have no idea where his head is at, and I think that he may not be a member of the Dolphins by the end of the twenty twenty five season.

00:04:48
Speaker 1: Do you think that risk from last year played a role at all or do you I've had a hard time with the risk injury because getting open and seeing getting targets, you would have to think that Tua in his brain or whoever's play quarterback in their mind, they're sitting there and they're saying, Oh, I'm not going to target this guy because he has a rist injury. Which seems like a lot for the quarterback to process and that quick of a time frame. Right, But at the same time, last year, Tyreek had twenty two had a target on twenty two percent of his routes run, which was the worst that he's seen since the second year of his career. And so this isn't just a like he wasn't able to bring in the ball situation last year. This is also a he just wasn't targeted at nearly as high of a rate last year. Like is that playing a role here?

00:05:32
Speaker 2: Like? Is it because he wasn't getting because he wasn't getting open as much? Right? Right? If you look at Matt Harmon's reception perception, I mean it shows that Tyreek Hill is a player in clear decline. And we usually do not see players bounce back, especially at an age like Tyreek Hills, bounce back after they show a steep decline. So I think he's just losing athleticism. Again, he could still run very fast in a straight line, but I think he's losing athleticism. That's what happens to players when they get to that age.

00:06:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, where do you have him rank? If you don't mind me asking? Like, are you at the point where you're like three or four wide receiver spots below market, or is this just like I'm only taking him if he falls to the fifth round and that's the only spot that I'm gonna get him.

00:06:18
Speaker 2: So I have Tyreek Hill as basically a middle to late third round pick, and I don't even think that I personally would take him there. I mean, there are just there are receivers that I like better in that same range Mike Evans, I would take the chance on the youth of Marvin Harrison junior, you know, George Pickens. I mean, I'm taking younger players in that range. Mike Evans isn't younger, but Mike Evans is coming off a career high yards per route run, so he's still playing at a very high level. Tyreek Hill is not. And I have Jalen Waddle significantly ahead of his ADP, and I've been getting a lot of Jalen Waddell. I think that this is a year to bet on Jalen Waddle, bet against Tyreek Hill.

00:07:00
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, look, there's a lot that there's a lot of volatility in that offense in general, arguably the worst offensive line in the league still like at least bottom five in the league, and obviously that played a huge role in them throwing those outlet passes to John U and Devon a Chan last year, which is why you know, in my opinion, like a Chan is still the easiest bet in that offense, just because even if they improve the line and they're able to run better, that's gonna benefit a Chan. And then if they don't, then that's still gonna benefit a Chan because they want some of those looks that with a.

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Speaker 2: Chan, I think you could catch a hundred.

00:07:30
Speaker 1: Balls right right right, exactly exactly. And so yeah, I'm with you with with Tyreek at the very least being a pretty volatile, like not pretty an insanely volatile pick, you know, someone who just could easily tank at the at the end of the season. I'm gonna go to the quarterback position here and call out Baker Mayfield. I could go with like a Jared Goff type, but it's not as edgy as going with Baker because I think that people look at Baker Mayfield and the pro argument for Baker is usually something, you know, it's pretty straightforward, something like the following great twenty twenty four season, probably as a as a real life quarterback, probably underrated still just as a player. Right, they get a mecha Buca and you sit there and you say, what could possibly go wrong when you have this wide receiver room and these weapons around you coming off the season that he did, And honestly, I think that the answer to that is just straight math. Like people might hate it, but there's a game about numbers and we have to lean into that at least to some degree. Obviously we want to analyze this from a football perspective, but the numbers matter a whole lot in fantasy football. Baker Mayfield last year scored twenty one and a half standard fantasy points per game. His previous high was seventeen point two, so last year was most definitely an outlier season for him. Now can he maintain that. I think that he's better than seventeen point two points per game, but I don't know if he's at that twenty one and a half point per game level. Part of what drove that number last year, there are two things. One was a touchdown rate that I'll get to in a second, but the other one was he had three point three rushing points per game, which was almost double his highest season. Prior to last season, Usually you know he's in that like one to two point per game range, you know with his rushing, but last year that improved greatly. He finishes the QB four as a result. His previous I was QB seventeen. But let's just say that he is better and that we're finally comfortable with Baker as a player. Going back to the touchdown rate thing, he had a seven point two percent touchdown rate last year, which was his touchdowns divided by attempts. Since twenty eleven, fifteen quarterbacks who had next season data have been between six point seven percent and seven point seven percent in touchdown rates. That's within plus or minus zero point five percent of where Baker was last year. Of those fifteen quarterbacks, their average points per game in that season where they had the high touchdown rate was twenty one point four. The next season it was seventeen point two, and every single quarterback lost in points per game year over year. Now, the Buccaneers they should be good offensively, but I think a lot of times when we see these situations and we're like, this team's going to be good, we don't look at how good they were the previous season. The Buccaneers scored fifty seven touchdowns last year. That's not an easy number to just repeat year over year. Chris Godwin is still banged up right now. Tristan Wurf's is banged up, which could be a really big deal of the offensive line getting the fifty seven touchdowns. This will not be some easy thing for them to They can do it, for sure, but it's not an easy thing for them to accomplish. And then last year the Buccaneer sells seventy two percent of their touchdowns. This plays into the touchdown rate thing. Seventy two percent of their touchdowns came via the air last year, which is a pretty high number and not something that's very easily repeatable. Liam Cohen's gone. That's another thing that we have to factor in here. You know, I don't know if Baker can repeat those rushing numbers. I actually would bet the under on him, you know, getting to three point three rushing points per game. Once again, the touchdown rate should regress. So to me, like when you look at the quarterback landscape, we have the elite guys, right, we have the Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen Lamar Jackson's and maybe some people want to even throw a Joe Burrow in there, But to me, I would much rather just be waiting on a Drake may who we know is going to give us the rushing upside, who we know could have like that huge, huge spike this year, than taking that middle round pick on Baker Mayfield.

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Speaker 2: I'm also lower than consensus on Baker Mayfield. I have hm quarterback thirteen. I believe his ADP is around quarterback.

00:11:32
Speaker 1: Nine, yeah, even sooner and some yeah yeah.

00:11:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's for all the factors. And you didn't even mention that Mike Evans is thirty two. Chris Godwin will be twenty nine and a half when the season starts, and isn't gonna be ready when the season starts. And with the Tristan Wurfs thing is terrifying. Yeah, you know, and I he is expected back at some point, but will he be the same Tristan Wurfs when he returns. Also, this is not a situation like where the Chargers can just plug in Joe alt, a two time first team All American left tackle, you know, removed, you know, two years from playing at Notre Dame and the number five overall pick. They can just plug him in at left tackle and use a guy at right tackle who's at least made starts in the NFL and Trey Pipkins. Yeah, the Bucks have to turn to Charlie Heck at left tackle. You know, this is a huge, huge downgrade. And if you look at the history, like the on off splits of like Trent Williams with the forty nine ers, or Lane Johnson with the Eagles, or Tyron Smith, you know back when he played for Dallas, like this is a really really big deal and a huge concern for the entire offense.

00:12:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, totally totally agree. Let's hear your next one, Evan Bryce Hall.

00:12:49
Speaker 2: And I know that this is a guy that you actually may be a little fond of, but I am not.

00:12:54
Speaker 1: Let's hear it, Let's rip me out. Yeah.

00:12:56
Speaker 2: So, arguably Breese Hall's greatest strength as an NFL running back is his past catching acumen and his long run ability with the ball in his hands. He ran four to three nine at five foot eleven two seventeen coming out of Iowa State. He averaged almost four catches per game over his first three NFL seasons, but the Jets are going to be like the run heaviest team in the NFL. The pass attempts are going to be sparing for the Jets this year. We saw even in their first preseason game. I mean, this is not any kind of a great indicator, the first preseason game, but they ran the ball thirty nine times in their first preseason game. I mean, this is a cultural thing that Aaron Glenn is installing. You remember when when Aaron Glenn was the defensive coordinator for the Lions. Every time that they play the Bears, Justin Fields would run all over the Lions. And Justin Fields is a quarterback who I love Justin Fields in fantasy this year. But he's a quarterback who on third down he is either going to throw the ball to his first read, or he's going to take off and run, or he's going to take a sack. Yeah, and that does not lend itself to running back receptions. And now we got the you know, the the Braylan Allen stuff. I mean, Braylon Allen is coming and he's coming hard. And Isaiah Davis also looks to at least have a minor role. So this is a three running back backfield. With a running quarterback, and I don't know. I actually think that your best outcome for Breece Hall might be to see him, like get traded to Dallas. I think that with the Jets he's going to be a timeshare back who doesn't catch passes and probably doesn't score touch many touchdowns either.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. No, Look, so when I published the draft guide originally on July first, I thought, which technically a lot of the players to target were written up in June because I had to get it out on July first. I liked Breece at that moment. Now I've since amended that to talk about the Braylan Allen stuf and the coach speak surrounding that because there's a lot of there's a lot of it's scary right the way that they're talking about that backfield and how it's going to be split. Here's the here's the pro argument for Breese. And now I want to get your reaction to this. This is semi Devil's advocate, but also semi like I do believe in this too to a to a decent degree. If you look at their you know, obviously, like when you're projecting target share, you have one hundred percent target share on a team, right. And if you look at the Jets right now, it's Garrett Wilson and the worst supporting cast that I've honestly ever seen in my life outside of that player, right, Josh Reynolds running as there is going to be Is it gonna be like Tyler Johnson as they're like.

00:15:39
Speaker 2: That's wild seeing Tyler Johnson in this in a starting lineup on our.

00:15:43
Speaker 1: Lads, right right? Exactly? Yeah, dude, a dude who's played on like fifteen teams in the last two years.

00:15:48
Speaker 2: Even Mason Taylor, who is running away with the tight end job, has a high ankle spreen exactly.

00:15:52
Speaker 1: And so if you look at Breese the last two years on a per game basis, sixteen point nine percent target share per game, thirteen point seven percent target share per game, I think he's very capable. Based on this personnel. This is strictly target share without layering on top what you're noting, which is the you know, the low passing volume that they're going to see. This is strictly target share. I think that just based on what he's done the last two years and based on the personnel they have, we should feel pretty good about like a fifteen percent target share for Breeze Hall. Like, realistically, I think Breecee Hall will finish as the if he's on the Jets this year, we'll finish as the number two target getter on that team, because there's just no one that is locked into, especially with the Mason Taylor stuff that's been going on. So let's say, just hypothetically speaking, that he sees fifty percent of the running back rushes. And maybe that's high because of what we've talked about with Braylan Allen and even Isaiah Davis, but fifty percent is at least a fairsh number for running back rushes, and so uh and just so that he's not just when I filter this that he's we're not just filtering receiving backs. Let's say a fifteen percent target share base and a fifty percent running back rush share base, so we'll get like the Chris Thompson players out of here, right, the guys who are only pass catchers get this. Since twenty eleven, there's been forty three running backs who played eight or more games that have gotten a fifteen percent target share better and a fifty percent running back rush share are better. Okay, Of those forty three players, none of them finished worse than RB eighteen and PPR points per game, and only two of them finished outside the top twelve. Now, I understand that some of those players on that list are studs, Christian McCaffrey, you know, Alvin Kamara, stud after stud who were able to get that kind of workload. We still do have though, like Miles Gaskin and Ramandre Stevenson, Andre Ellington, Fred Jackson, these players who played kind of just a mediocre rushing role with that plus receiving role. And even when you push that down to a fourteen percent target share, you add almost twenty more running backs to the data set, and of those sixty one, only one of them finished outside the top twenty was Austin Eckler a couple of years ago when he was the RB twenty one, and that was the downturn of his career, which is not the side of the career that Breece Hall is on right now, right, and only five of the sixty one we're outside the top twelve. So my bottom line with Breece is, if we do feel okay about the share side of things like the target share, the backfield share side of things without factoring in the passing volume in the offense, which totally understand that that's the crux of the argument here. But if you only look at the share, he looks pretty favorable, right, And then I think that the passing volume side the one area where I feel a little bit more bullish and excited. Excited too strong of a word, would be they're not supposed to be very good this year, and if they're in these negative game scripts, that could really benefit Breece more. Where I think this Breece Hall thing might come down to, and I really want to hear your take on this is honestly Isaiah Davis, because Davis was a really good path. I love Davis. I like Brote, both Braylen Allen and Davis coming out last year. But Isaiah Davis I thought was a really underrated player who could play a three down role. And if you look at what he did down the stretch last year, I mean it's a small sample, but he was by far the most efficient running back on that team last year. And Braylen Allen, I'm gonna give a pass because he was twenty years old, so it's you know, he he's got some time to get a little bit better in the league. But to me, I look at a team like I don't know, Buffalo, where they do use that three headed monster and they do have that very specific role that they used last year with like a Ty Johnson, and even if Isaiah Davis plays like that kind of role on this team, that to me is what could really cap and ruin Breeze Hall this year, you know, like the early not like I don't think Braylan Allen's going to be more than a five percent target chair guy, you know. I think he's going to be more of like the Brew. I mean, he might end up with more volume on the ground than Breeze Hall this year. There's a realistic chance that that happens, and that would obviously hurt Hal too, But I think that the main point with Hall, and like obviously the selling point is the receiving and who's going to hurt him more there? It might be Isaiah Davis at the end. Do you agree with that?

00:20:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's kind of words to live by for me, are like we can deal sometimes with backfields that have two members and you know, like a two way rotation and either the offense is awesome to support them, or they just run the crawd or they just you know, feature the running backs and they end up both getting a bunch of touches. It's really hard to support three man backfields, like virtually impossible. So there's no question that Isaiah Davis playing a role. I mean, but you know, and he's looking good. Like if I were you, I would be rooting for Breese Hall to get traded. Yeah.

00:20:44
Speaker 1: No, I mean, I think that's probably the best outcome for him. I just I'm so like stuck on how bad the personnel is on this team at the skill positions, right, and how bris like we know that he's like you're like your argument for Breese more than I would assume is not even necessarily anti Breee the talent, right, Like it's it has very little to do with that versus the situation that he's in, which we both agree the offensive line is actually not bad, but.

00:21:12
Speaker 2: We both think I think it could be awesome.

00:21:14
Speaker 1: Yeah right right, But the but justin fields and you know, Tyler Johnson and Josh Reynolds in a banged up rookie tight end, like that's that's rough, That's that's pretty bad. We can't expect a lot of scores from that, but I do. I think that where I land is that he's probably in some home leagues going to be overdrafted because running backs will get a little bit inflated in that kind of environment, and I would much rather take a lot of wide receivers. But I think within the position, once you get to where he gets drafted, if you're only looking at running backs, like strictly like just looking at running back rankings, I think he's a like are you are you? Are you confidently taking kyn Williams over him?

00:21:57
Speaker 2: Absolutely?

00:21:58
Speaker 1: Okay, So Kyrien, your James Cook with a situation that's going on with him. Okay, let's see, I'm trying to think of other Cuba Hubbard versus Breeze.

00:22:07
Speaker 2: Now we're kind of talking, Okay, Okay.

00:22:09
Speaker 1: I'm just trying trying to trying to get a feel. Okay, all right, but that's about. That's about. So you're like more like starting the lower end tight or RB two is like mid mid to lower end, as opposed to him being a higher end RB two. Yeah, I mean, I think I think that's fair and and folks can listen to both sides and definitely be a little bit nervous about drafting him. I mean, I've moved him down my rankings with some of the coach speaks stuff in the way that Braylan Allen is seemingly going to see some of that early down work. I think Braylan Allen in particular has been a pretty easy click in Best Ball. I think I think I guy the archetype of player that Allen is is a much more difficult player to start in your managed league because it's just gonna be is he gonna score this week? Or you know what kind of what kind of game script are they going to see? But in a Best Ball environment, you know, it's a little bit easier to to click that name. Let's move on, you know what, I'm just gonna go to Cuba Hubbard since we just talked about him. This is probably, honestly, this is probably my most controversial take of the season. Is my is my tubas stance? So last year, so this is the next player on my list is Chuba Hubbard. Last year, Hubbard saw an eighty three percent running back rusher per game. That that is not an easy number to replicate. That's like Kien Williams esque, right, which we all are a little bit afraid of Kyen. You know, even if he sees a dip of like ten per like, that's the downside of Kien Williams, right, If he sees like a dip of ten percent in running back rush here, then all of a sudden, you know, if if he maintains the efficiency that he's had, that's not great and so it's not an easy number to maintain. Part of the reason that he was able to see the workload, in my opinion, that that he saw last year Hubbard is Jonathan Brooks. Jonathan Brooks was out when when Brooks played if you remember he played those three games, basically two games because that third game he tore his acl again in that second game, so you get the first game he comes back, they're going to ease him. In that's second game, they probably feel a little bit better about where he's at. And in that second game, Cuba after his again Cuba's season long running back rush there was eighty three percent in that game. He saw two thirds of the team's running back rushes, so it was significantly lower than what he had had, you know, throughout the entire season. And more importantly, and this is really the crux of the argument for not drafting Cuba at cost. Jonathan brook saw three targets to Cuba zero in that game, and we know that pass catching really matters, especially for these like middle you know, early to middle round running backs. That's the way that they sort of differentiate themselves and stand out and become league winners in fantasy football. And one way to predict next season target share. I did an episode on this earlier the offseason is by looking at previous season yards per ute run It's it's a predictive metric at not just wide receiver, but at running back as well, especially at the extremes, and Cuba at the was at the extreme. Last year in a bad way. He had a zero point five to one yard ARGs parou run rate, which is one of the worst that you're gonna find at the running back position. He's now had back to back seasons of pretty bad yards parol run rates. And then when you see data like that, you have to ask yourself, like, for instance, like David Montgomery had a really good yards parol run rate last year. But we know intuitively by just understanding football at a very high level that David Montgomery is not going to walk into a thirteen percent target share this year just because he had a high yards para run rate last year. Because Jamior Gibbs is in the backfield, right, And so when you look at what the Panthers did through their actions this offseason, they add Tederoa McMillan, So that's target share that can go to a true alpha hypothetically in that offense. And then look at what they did at running back. They add Rico o'dowdell, who's good in pass pro, who can catch passes out of the backfield, and then they drafted Trevor Etn who is known as a pass catching running back. In my opinion, Chuba Hubbard is a great early down back who's gonna carry a pretty big workload in this offense behind a good offensive line too. Right, So, like, I don't think Hubbard is going to totally tank your team per se per se, especially across the first month of the season. They have a pretty easy schedule. So I don't think that Cuba is like an avoid from the standpoint of Zamir White last year, right, this is not a situation like that in my opinion. But I want my RB fifteen to eighteen that I'm drafting to be able to have a true in my opinion, like top six type ceiling, you know, like if you're looking at Kenneth Walker versus Cuba Hubbard, I'm taking Kenneth Walker all day because I know that Walker despite the injury. Obviously there's some risk with the injury stuff, but we can see that upside in that Kubiak offense and him getting more pass catching work last year, and there's excitement around that fit. With Hubbard, I just worry that there's not gonna be a pass catching role firm and if there's not a pass catching role, you're drafting the RB seventeen to be the RB sixteen or the RB fifteen, And that just doesn't do it for me. And I think the biggest argument is that I'm only a couple spots away in running back rank with Tuba, to be honest, like lower than the market. It's the wide receivers that you're drafting around that range, Like you get that like round four, round five wide receiver range. There's so many good players Jamison Williams and George Pickens, and there's just so many good wide outs there that I'd rather go in that direction. So I think we're going to see a drop in target share for Cuba from that twelve to thirteen percent range it was at last year to more of like the seven to eight percent range, and that's pretty significant when you're trying to calculate ceiling for these guys.

00:27:28
Speaker 2: There are a few things to like about Chewba Hubbard, just not very many things to get excited. The ship chasers use a term small hit, big miss, yeah, and those are the kind of players that you generally want to avoid when that's their range of outcomes. A small hit but could be a big miss, and Chewba Hubbard, I think kind of falls into that category. Heat has shown the ability to handle big workloads. I mean, yeah, last two years he had two hundred and thirty eight carries in twenty twenty three, two hundred and fifty carries. Last year in college, he handled big workloads. That's a good thing. They gave him money, they gave him extension, and you know, they poured a ton of resources into their offensive line. Their offensive line is kind of beastly.

00:28:14
Speaker 1: It should be great.

00:28:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And I think that the signs point to this being an ascending offense. So there are some things to like about Chewbahaber. I draft him every once in a while, yeah, you know, but he I definitely never get excited about him because he's still, at the end of the day, a small hit, big miss kind of player.

00:28:35
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like on DraftKings for instance, you know, he's like an early fifth oftentimes I'll get him in the late fifth at times, but like that's enough for me to call him out and just talk this. The Tuba thing, to me is more about the logic behind it and the kind of way that I think people should be thinking about fantasy football with, like you said, getting the actual big hit out of it instead of it being a little hit, big miss, you know, trying to get like the true ceiling out of that player. You can't just hit, say, with all your players throughout your draft. You're not gonna win your fantasy championship that way, all right, Next one for you, Evan, let's hear it.

00:29:07
Speaker 2: So Patrick Mahomes has been a losing fantasy pick in each of the last two years. Not just oh, you know, a good real life quarterback you know who's been average. No, no, no, he's been a losing fantasy pick in each of the last two years. He finished below thirty touchdown passes and below four hundred rushing yards in both seasons. In twenty twenty three, he had a second round ADP and he had a third round ADP last year. His ADP this year is down to round five, and it's still way too high. Yeah. Rashid Rice, who is the you know, their difference making number one receiver, is almost certainly going to miss the first month of the season, maybe the first month and a half. Hollywood Brown, I mean, the guy's just made a glass. I mean, he can't stay healthy. He's hurt again, you know. And Travis Kelcey is you know, just a pure possession, catch and fall guy at this stage of his career. You know, it's just it's not happening. This is going to be a team again for the third straight year that is built on its defense and struggles to hit explosive plays, at least until Rashie Rice comes back. Rashee Rice could make a difference, but by then, I mean we're a month in the season, month and a half month and a half into the season, and Patrick Mahomes has probably not been even usable in fantasy. So you know, again, I think that his ADP should absolutely be lower than round five. And I think that we, you know, for the past couple of years, people have been chasing those forty touchdown past seasons from Patrick Mahomes like that just is not going to happen again.

00:30:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, And they also to your point with Rashie Rice being banged or not being spent potentially to start the season. I mean, technically he's probably a little banged up still. But they open up their season again, the Chargers, Eagles, Giants Ravens. I mean, that's not the easiest start in the That's a tough start for any quarterback in any offense. And yeah, I mean I think in situations like this, and I feel this way about like Marvin Harrison Junior, where I you know, obviously the talent can be there, but I ask myself, what's changed year over year? You know, what is what is like tangibly change usually like a coaching change would make me feel more bullish on somebody who maybe is coming off a down season or a multiple down seasons. This really all aligns. The Mahomes stuff aligns. When Matt Naggie got there or went back there as offensive coordinator and the last two seasons, Mahomes has had sub seven yard a dots. Uh. He's not giving us three points per game with his legs. He hasn't. He's only done that once during his career. I think that we just got to a point where Mahomes like showed us his statistical ceilings so early in his career, and there's probably somewhat of an anchoring bias going on here.

00:31:57
Speaker 2: Also, you notice he's kind of starting to hope a little bit of a belly.

00:32:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've seen that. Yes, he's got dad. Look, we don't talk down on dad bods here, man. We love dad bods and with late round fantasy football, but yeah, I agree. Like again, it kind of falls into like that Baker category for me, where obviously you can see a good passing season coming, but that's not the kind of season that you want to bet on in fantasy football generally. You know, when you're not giving us the rushing production and you're in a single quarterback format, you should just be waiting on. Not none only that, but like even the pocket passers late, none of us should be shocked if like Jordan Love outscores Patrick Mahomes this year. You know, like or even a Justin Herbert whomever, Like, there's a lot of more pocket passers that have comparable rushing ceilings, if not better rushing ceilings than Mahomes, because there are you know they're talking about Jordan Love maybe running a little bit more this year. Justin Herbert has always had that, and he even did a little bit last year. So like, why are we placing that bet on Mahomes when we know the passing stuff is so vaud to begin with. So I love that call out. Although I did draft him in the in the King's Classic this past weekend in Canton because he fell and I was trying to trying to get a little exposure to him because I know I'm going to get him anywhere else. All Right, I'm gonna go to a pretty, in my opinion, a pretty easy one. I'm gonna go to Brian Robinson. I think that the argument that I at least the argument I've seen that's pro Robinson is essentially, what if he scores fifteen touchdowns this year? Like what if he's this year's Jamal Williams or this year's Lagarrett Blunt or this year's insert early down bruiser and grinder who ends up scoring a lot of touchdowns in a good offense. And I understand that, but I'm just not going to bet on something like that. It's just not my style.

00:33:39
Speaker 2: You know.

00:33:39
Speaker 1: Robinson has seen three percent, seven percent, and five percent target shares in his three seasons in the league. His best running back rush share on a per game basis has been sixty eight percent. So if you just look at those top numbers, seven percent target share, sixty eight percent running back rush share. We've had just five top fifteen running back performances since twenty eleven from running backs who have hit those marks or lower, and two of those five are Nick Chubb, who that's prime Nick Chubb, right, one of the one of the best early down running backs that are you know, this era has basically seen I don't want to say that Brian Robinson is that. And this Jacorey Krossky Merritt stuff, I don't think is just just nothing. You know, like he at the very least like j CM didn't have or I'll just say Bill didn't have, you know, insane collegiate production. So like the Zap model didn't really love him that much, but he didn't test the combine. So we didn't get like comparable athleticism numbers for him, but seemingly I think we would all project if you just watch him, Uh, he is easily the most athletic running back on that team right now when you when you compare him to Brian Robinson and then the aged Austin Eckler. I actually think though that that Krossky Merritt is a bigger threat to Brian Robinson than he is to Austin Eckler. Eckler playing more of that satellite back role officially, like he's not gonna see that much work on the ground, and he was actually really efficient per route run last year. Eckler was he was fine as a receiver and JCM as a rookie, they likely aren't going to trust him in that role immediately or even maybe even during the season to see like a legit nine to ten percent target share. I think he's going to be more change of pace on the ground and it's not going to be that difficult to replace a player who's maybe just an above average, you know, type starter in the league. And so with Robinson again, it just goes back to like you look at Fantasy pros ADP right now, he's going ahead of Brian Robinson's going ahead of Stefan Diggs, which might be not rien people aren't reacting that yet or you know, the ADP sources aren't reacting to him being healthy yet, but ahead of Stefan Diggs, Jacoby Myers, Matthew Golden, Ricky Piersoll. Like again, there's so many like that. Top forty wide receivers have so many good wideouts that I am not going to take an early down back, you know, for a team that has an ascending young player and rookie player over some of those wideouts that could be difference makers in fantasy football this year.

00:36:03
Speaker 2: You know, Mike Leoni and I get into arguments about Ricky Piersall like every day at this point.

00:36:08
Speaker 1: He Oh, yeah, Leoni's anti Piersal, isn't it.

00:36:11
Speaker 2: Yeah?

00:36:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I'm I'm I'm all about Richard pearsall Man, are you.

00:36:14
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I love it. Yeah. Oh, He's gonna hate that because he loves you. He loves you. He's always like, well, JJ said this, JJ said that. I'm going to bring that up to him.

00:36:23
Speaker 1: I know, like the the year one stuff into year two modeling stuff is not going to love Pier saw that much. But it's really hard for me to get away from I liked him as a prospect, and obviously he got shot last year and that's not gonna be an easy thing to to just overcome. Even if even if the valleys for him last season were, you know, a little bit into him his return, right, it was in that like week like eleven to thirteen range or something like that, whenever he like didn't see or only saw one target on all his routes run didn't have a single yard. But yeah, I mean, Piersall, he's actually this is a spoiler for a couple of weeks for when we go over my exposure on draftings. I'm becoming a best ball bro Ricky Piersall right now, as I'm saying this is my highest rostered and highest exposed, let's go.

00:37:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, all, I love to hear that. Yeah, he's like top He's like one of my top five. But anyways, back to that was a huge tangent.

00:37:15
Speaker 1: From Brian Robinson to Ricky Pierce, back.

00:37:17
Speaker 2: To Jacory Krossky merit because this is a big deal for Brian Robinson because he is a very volume dependent yes player. Yeah, and Jacorey Krossky Merrit, I think is a much bigger threat to Brian Robinson than he is to Austin Ekeler. You mentioned that Jacory Krossky Merrit did not participate the comeby. He did have a pro day and oh my god, yeah, four four five at two hundred and six pounds forty one and a half inch vertical ten foot four broad jump. I mean, this guy is an absolute athlete. I know he bounced around colleges and he didn't really play much in college, but he only had seven career receptions, So I think that he is an early down guy exactly. Ye, and that's a big concern for Brian Robinson.

00:38:00
Speaker 1: One hundred percent, hundred percent. And honestly, like it's weird because the market has reacted more to Austin Eckler getting bumped down, like Eckler gets drafted. And I'm not saying that Eckler's like this obvious target or anything like that, right, but but Eckler's been bumped down and Robinson hasn't been bumped down as much, like especially where they get drafted, right, being bumped down in round fifteen to sixteen is nothing or just not that big of a deal. But like the fact that Robinson's ADP hasn't shifted near, I just don't think it's shifted nearly as much as it should based on what we just talked about and and Bill being a bigger threat to be Rob's workload. Bill's a great nickname.

00:38:35
Speaker 2: By the way, I don't even get it, but I know that that that he does call himself.

00:38:41
Speaker 1: That, though he does call it, and it's a lot easier than saying j Cory Krossky merit on a podcast. Yeah, all right, let's hear your next one, Evan Evan Ingram.

00:38:49
Speaker 2: So we had an email or email in maybe a week ago. Does Silva is is this a mistake? Silva doesn't have if Evan Ingram in his time one f And what I really try to do is I have like fifteen quarterbacks and fifteen tight ends and the rest is running backs and wide receivers, and Evan Ingram just happens to be like tight end seventeen. So he's not going to be in the top one fifty at like on principle, But I mean I have him like tight end seventeen or maybe even tight end eighteen because I'm just not intrigued by him at all in Denver. You want to talk about volume dependency, Evan Ingram is the most volume dependent tight end in the league. He's averaged fewer than nine yards per reception in three of the last four years. He's a catch and fall guy. He hasn't gone over four touchdowns in individual seasons since twenty seventeen. He doesn't block, so he's only going to be a rotational player on a defense oriented Broncos team, and he's going to split time with Adam Troutman. Sean Payton loved Adam Troutman in their preseason opener. They were sharing time. Adam Troutman blocks. So I just I don't think that Evan Ingram is helping anyone in fantasy football this year. When you get into the you know, the tight end two's, you're really touchdown hunting, and Evan Ingram has never been a big time touchdown scorer, and I don't think he's going to score a lot of touchdowns this year either as a rotational player on a defense oriented Broncos team.

00:40:26
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, look, the favorable argument for Ingram, I think is, you know, historically, breakout tight ends guys who outpace their ADP. Obviously, breakout's not the right word for a guy who's a little bit older. But you know, these breakout tight ends will come from teams that don't have locked in multiple wide receivers locked in like with high ADPs, you only have Courtland Sutton there. So hypothetically, you know, this is why Tucker Craft is really attractive because there's.

00:40:51
Speaker 2: This opening Tucker Craft.

00:40:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's this opening there for someone to step up and step in and be the number one I mean for that team, the number one target getter on that team. Right with Ingram, we're saying what if he could be the number two? But as time has gone on, I've gotten less and less bullish on Ingram When thinking about how this team may operate this year. You mentioned their defense and strugg They have a great defense and elite defense and an elite offensive line, and that usually is not the best combination for you know, a high volume passing approach.

00:41:25
Speaker 2: Right.

00:41:26
Speaker 1: And the other thing too, is that if you look at how they've they've seemed to deploy slash want to deploy r J. Harvey if you want to use the joker argument, and this is what I was using. The joker argument a little bit in July for Evan Ingram, and I've kind of been, like, like I said, like lowering him in my rankings and not feeling as good about him. R J. Harvey might end up just being that dude for them, and he might be the mismatch dude for them in twenty twenty five because that joker role that you know, I think is a little bit overblown in general in the way that that they talk about it. But that joker role has been Sprolls, has been Kamara, has been backs just as much as it's been Jimmy Graham, and so I don't think that it's a lock that that Ingram is playing that spot, despite when he when he signed there. When he went there, uh, he tweeted a joker gift uh to the world where.

00:42:13
Speaker 2: Sean Payton was asked before training camp whether he saw Evan Ingram as the joker, and Sean Payton was like, yeah, yeah, he could maybe do some of those things.

00:42:23
Speaker 1: I think maybe, yeah, maybe they had the idea pre draft, you know, and then they got their dude and after doing a vowls and stuff, and they like cause I like, I think that the the arrow to me, is pointing up for both the backs in that back in that backfield. Like I love both Dobbins and r J. Harvey. I think both of them can hypothetically eat and and pay off a cost. But yeah, the the the arrow has just been pointing down for me with Ingram. Part of this too has been his cost seems to be at least stagnant and slash rising based on the fact that a lot of analysts are in and I was into it, like I said, like, this is a player that I've been changing my mind on quite dramatic. So I'm glad that you shouted him out on the show today.

00:43:03
Speaker 2: Staying on the RJ. Harvey topic, did you see this? So RJ RJ Harvey Harvey is like a like a big buzz guy in fantasy right now because when the Broncos came out with their depth chart, he was like sixth on the depth chart. And then so you know, the JK. Dobbins cheerleaders were taking their victory laps, and then they come into the preseason game and RJ. Harvey gets like all the first team reps. So then is a massive swing and all the RJ. Harvey cheerleaders they're taking their victory laps. Did you see this though?

00:43:33
Speaker 1: Is it the helmet thing?

00:43:34
Speaker 2: Ben Albright, who covers the Broncos, was asked about this. Some guy goes RJ. Harvey started on offense and then Ben Albright tweeted, Yeah, it was supposed to be JK Dobbins though he was supposed to start. I don't know what happened. He couldn't find his helmet or something.

00:43:55
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh.

00:43:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, so maybe JK Dobbins was supposed to start, but he couldn't find his helmet. So RJ RG RJ R fie I have having such a problem saying his name. He got all the first team reps so ont preseason Game two.

00:44:12
Speaker 1: I guess that's that's hilarious. It's so like both of those, like literally both running backs were players to target for me in my initial launch of the guy, Like you know, like that it's an offense that that's gonna support that kind of of role. I mean, we know they've been you know, Sean Payton teams have been top six and running back target year since twenty eleven, every single year, So yeah, I do, and only that like that is gonna likely take away from Ingram a little bit too, which sucks because again he's been more volume dependent than anything else. All Right, you talk about Evan Ingram, I'm going to go to I should have probably segued your mahomes thing to this guy, but I'll go with the tight end. I'll talk Travis Kelcey. Uh, look, we don't know what's gonna happen exactly with the Rashid Rice stuff. What's your estimate, like four to six games? Yeah, yeah, so we'll say, I mean, if this if it comes out today after we you know, before we published this episode. This is a Monday that we're recording this, But yeah, I mean, like four to six games seems seems to be where Rice will be suspended, and that means that Rice would hypothetically be playing a good ten plus games for the Chiefs this year. Last year, in the small sample with Rashie Rice, Travis Kelcey averaged five PPR points per game and a fourteen percent target chair with Rashee Rice active last year in the three games, which is horrific. And then you know, you look at how he performed. He was a tight end six and PPR points per game last year on a twenty five percent target chair, he was still just a tight end six His yards per out run one point four to three the worst of his career. His yards after the catch per reception the worst of his career. And so I just don't know why the market seems to be assuming that what he did last year from a volume perspective, is going to carry over. The only argument that I can make is maybe some touchdown regression, you know, like that's the that's the crux I think to the pro side for Travis Kelcey. But even still, like I'm a fan of Jalen Royals, I think that he's a good prospect. I think he was a good prospect and he's literally his top comp in the ZAT model was Rashid Rice, So I think that he can fit in, you know, in that role pretty nicely. Xavier Worthy is another year in and so he should command more of a target share in the offense. Hollywood Brown isn't at least out for the season right now. You know, he is banged up because he can't stay healthy. But and then I even think, you know, Noah Gray is a good backup tight end and someone who could see more work in the offense. And then Isaiah Pacheco's healthy right now too. I mean, there's just it's a healthier offense in general that I think can steal target share. So if Travis kelcey ends up seeing a twenty percent target chair instead of a twenty five percent target chair this year and he maintains that per route run efficiency, that's a disaster in fantasy football. Like, that's really bad news. Since twenty fourteen, we've had forty six tight ends play eight or more games in their current season while running two hundred more routes in their n minus one season. So the previous season, of those forty six, there were eleven of them who were coming off seasons with a sub one point five yards perrow run rate. Okay, so we're looking at these tight ends who had bad yards per run rates the previous season in this kind of range that Travis Kelce's going in. Of those eleven, only three of them outperformed their ADP expectation in points per game, and those eleven performed on average almost two PPR points per game below expectation. So there's a lot of market trends that don't favor Travis kelce. There's a lot of age trends that don't favor Travis Kelce, and there's a lot of efficiency trends that don't favor Travis Kelce. I know that people are going to be are going to buy into the he's in better shape this year narrative. When has that ever been something that has worked out for us as fantasy players. So I'm gonna mostly fade Kelsey this year.

00:47:51
Speaker 2: As someone who actively fell in love with Taylor Swift when I saw her at Soldier Field two years ago, I am here for all the Travis Kelsey shade.

00:48:02
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's it's a it's a tough buy for me, all right. So you got I think you have one more right.

00:48:07
Speaker 2: One one more guy, And I mean this is this is kind of a gimme, But it's Najie Harris. I just looked at his Fantasy pros ADP and he was like still right around a top one hundred player, and I like, please don't draft this guy. Yeah, you know, obviously everybody knows by now he got into a fireworks accident in July and he is not healthy yet he never had upside in the first place. I mean, this is gonna be o'marion Hampton's backfield. I talked to an optometrist. I'm not a doctor. Wow, I talked to an optometry I'm friends with an optopmetrist, and I asked him, what is you know, what's your level of concern about Najie Harrison is like, I think he's gonna end up losing the eye. He's like any eye injury that you suffer, it generally will be healed within three days. And it's been over a month now. I obviously I hope that Nage Heroes does not lose his hot. I yeah, but like this optometrist, and he's really good. He's he went to ut Austin, really smart dude, and I mean he's like, I think he's gonna end up losing the eye. Like eye injuries, heal fast. And it's been over a month and Najee Harris's eye is not healed.

00:49:26
Speaker 1: So let me be cause I was fading nase before all this happened. That's not a brag or anything like that. I'm not predicting him to get in a fireworks accident, right, But it was more so the like you said, I never saw the ceiling outcome, Like it was just not there when they dropped to Mari and Hampton. How high are you then on Amar and Hampton because he is huge?

00:49:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have him twenty fifth overall. Okay, So I mean I've been getting a ton of Omari and Hampton just every time I'm in the third round, I'm looking for Omar and Hampton. Yeah.

00:49:54
Speaker 1: You can't undersell the fact that typically in these scenarios, and we even saw it with like an a britste Hall, who we talked about earlier in his rookie season, right where these guys who are clearly the best back in their backfield as rookies, they don't just get the workload immediately because if there is a veteran or if there is another player sitting there to get some of that work, those guys will get some of that work. But you can't undersell the fact that Hampton now is doing this without competition. I mean, there's there's no one there really in his way. Whereas if Najie Harris were to be healthy, we might see more of a second half breakout for Marion Hampton as opposed to, you know, an early season breakout. But now the early season breakout is very much on the table. So I'm with you. I'm very high on a Mari and Hampton as well. I'm gonna go to the final player here. I'm gonna talk about Jerry Judy. So Joe Flacco starting this season is only going to push Jerry Judy's ADP upwards. And it sounds like Flacco is in the driver's seat to be, you know, the starter and that dude for them to start the season. But like I'll ask you this, Evan, what do you think the uh the over under. I'll set the over under for you. Flacco starts this year over under eight and a half starts for Flacco.

00:51:10
Speaker 2: Ooh, I think that that's right about where it should be. I would say between seven and nine. I think nine would be a really good outcome for the cause of Judy and Ndjoku.

00:51:20
Speaker 1: Yeah. And so I'm sitting here and I'm looking at a guy like Judy, where of course Flacco's the best option for that passing attack. I think we'd all agree. But the thing that I have a hard time with, and this is the same thing that we see with Jamis Winston. He's good for fantasy football, Flacco is not some savior as a real football quarterback, and Jamis is not. So Jamis was struggling last year. While all these good, crazy numbers were happening for the Browns, he was still struggling. From a real football perspective, that matters because they can bench the player and then and the Browns have multiple options now that they're going to want to test out outside of Joe Flacco. And here's the thing. Last year, there was a seven week period where Jamis had where Judy had Jamis, and he averaged twenty one point one PPR points per game. He was on fire, he was a beast. He had almost a twenty five percent target share during that stretch. But outside of that split, he averaged nine point three PPR points per game and a twenty one percent target share And with Cedric Tillman from week seven to eleven, because they traded Amari Cooper and Cedric Tillman became the perimeter guy aside from outside of Judy. With Tillman from week seven to week eleven, Judy had a little over fourteen PPR points per game and a target chair per game of nineteen point six percent, which is like, it's fine, it's not elite, but it's fine. But the problem was that with that is that that was still with Winston and nothing has really changed for Jerry Judy. Judy didn't all of a sudden become some elite player at wide receiver where he's gonna be able to sustain a twenty one point per game average. His per route run numbers were pretty much the same throughout his entire career as what we saw last year. His targets per ute run was actually below his career average last year. The reason he was so good in fantasy football, no human being in the NFL ran more routes than Jerry Judy. Last season, he ran more routes than every other player in football. They dropped back a lot. Cleveland had the highest targeted attempts in the entire league last season. I just don't see that continuing. I mean, that's regression waiting to happen. They go out, they draft quinch On Judkins. Obviously he's not been able to find the field because the off the field stuff, but they also drafted Dylan Sampson. It's a team that has younger quarterbacks. Like I said, they're gonna want to test out and if they have these younger quarterbacks, they're likely going to try to be more run heavy than they were last year. And if you look at where he's being ranked, here are the wide receivers he's being ranked ahead of that I would draft over Jerry Judy right now, Stefan Diggs, Jacoby Myers, Roma Dunze, Ricky Piersoll. I would take all four of those wide receivers over Judy because we have to think maybe he gets off to a decent enough start because Joe Flacco is gonna be starting for them, But the most important part of the fantasy season, there's like a greater than ninety percent chance that it's going to be like Shador Sanders or Dylan Gabriel or some other quarterback that we don't feel as confident can lift and sustain the pass catchers in that offense. So I think that he's a floor play, not a ceiling one. This honestly, I think that Judy is kind of even to a larger degree, but kind of in that like Chewba Hubbard bucket where I do think that it's a like you said, it's a big miss, small hit kind of situation where I have a hard time seeing Judy really finishing as like a top twenty four wide receiver this year.

00:54:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that the Browns are gonna end up having four quarterbacks who make starts this year. Kenny Pickett. I think the plan was for Kenny Pickett actually to start Week one before he pulled his hamstring, which gotta be a pretty bad hamstring poll because he has been out for a while. And then I was listening to Zach Jackson, who's covered the Browns for a long time. He covers them for The Athletic on a podcast recently, and he's like, they are also intent on making sure that they get some starts out of Shaduor Sanders and Dylan Gabriel. And this was before Shad Sanders had a pretty nice preseason opener. Yeah, because they have to at least have some idea of what they have in these guys. Yes, because you know that that's going to determine whether or not they use a very high pick or try to trade up for a quarterback next year. Yeah. So they, I mean, they are like super motivated to figure out, you know, to start like multiple quarterbacks over the course of the season. This is going to be a carousel.

00:55:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, And why wouldn't they, right, Like, I mean, look, you you and someone might be asking why start Flacco at all? Well, you still want to get an understanding of the rest of the team. If it's you know, if he's the most competent quarterback, you need to have the most competent quarterback at least start some games for you to have a good understanding of what their pass catchers can do. Uh and and you know they're there the rest of the team can do. But man, end of the season stuff, I mean, what what kind of percent would you put on Joe Flacco not start a non Flacco quarterback starting week fifteen to seventeen the fantasy playoffs? Like we were talking greater than ninety percent here, Yeah.

00:56:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was gonna say eighty five percent.

00:56:12
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean it's a really high likelihood. And so just because of that, even you could say, all right, maybe Judy hits ADP matches ADP up until then, but I still don't even think that's the case, just given his splits with and without Cedric Tillman. They draft Harold Fannin, who could be an interesting you know, because they run a lot of twelve personnel. They also have Deontay Johnson there. Now, maybe he wins out the slot job. We'll see. But regardless, like it's not that clean of a situation and they're not gonna throw nearly as much as they did last year. So to me, Judy, he's a fade for me. All right, Evan, this was great. Let everyone know where they can find you, which you guys are working on over at Establish the Run.

00:56:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm working on that shy Away article right now. Thirty guys to avoid in fantasy drafts. Our top one fifty is upgraded, updated every single day. Years are updated every single day. We've got a lot of podcasts establishedthirun dot com, Established the Run on iTunes and YouTube. We're trying to get our YouTube numbers up, so come subscribe.

00:57:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I will always back my boys over at ETR. There's a lot of good synergy with like what I produce at Late Round Fantas Football and then what you guys do over at ETR, So definitely check them out. If you guys haven't checked out the draft guide, the Late Round Draft Guide, go do that over on Lateround dot com. Make sure you subscribe to this podcast feed as well as our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash at Late Round FF. Otherwise, everyone, thanks for tuning in