320: Mailbag 11/22/19

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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zachersa JJ zacher reson What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachariesen, the editor in chief at Fandle and at number five dot com. And this is episode three hundred and twenty of the Late Round podcast and the many shows that are part of the FanDuel podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. Swan Tuesday, on the ten Trend Show, I brought up the fact that Patrick Mahomes has regressed from a touchdown perspective this year, but he hasn't been any worse as a player. Touchdowns bring a lot of variants, so this isn't that surprising. It was going to be hard for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense to maintain the scoring rate that they had last season. Now, I got a little pushback from people in it all surrounded Tyreek Hill. The clear difference between this year and last year, aside from Mahomes' injury, has been Tyreek Hill not being able to find the field. And it's a super fair criticism. So I want to say a few things on that subject before we get to the mailbag questions. First, injury is still embedded into regression if a team gets really lucky with injuries one year, that's not bound to happen the following season. Second, it's important to remember that the Chiefs also added pieces to the offense. It's not like we have a one to one relationship here with one of those sides just not having Tyreek Hill. They drafted me Cole Hardman, for example, and Sammy Watkins is healthier this year. And Third, and I think this is the most important thing that I'm going to talk about today, But third, how many more touchdowns do you think Patrick Mahomes would have thrown for this season if Tyreek Hill were healthy. It's not like his touchdown rate right now is eight percent after it being eight point six percent last year, it's five point nine percent. In order for Mahomes to get to that eight point six percent rate based on his three hundred and twenty three pass attempts, he would have had to have thrown eight to nine more touchdowns right now. That he's currently thrown for eight more touchdowns will give him an eight point four percent touchdown rate that's still lower than last year. And I think that we can all agree that eight or nine more touchdowns at this point this season is an absurd number to expect from one player being absent. Like, sure, maybe the Chiefs are more efficient offensively with Tyreek Hill on the field, and maybe they don't throw as many passes, and maybe some of the rushing touchdowns that they've had this year those turn into passing touchdowns. But eight to nine touchdowns, that's a lot of freaking touchdowns. It's okay to say that last year for Patrick Mahomes was the high end of his range of outcomes from a touchdown standpoint. Maybe he hits that range again, but it shouldn't be the expectation. That's the key here. I'm not saying he's not good. I'm not saying he'll never touch twenty eighteen's numbers ever. Again, I'm saying we can't expect that to happen year in and year out, and by blaming it all in the Tyreek Hill injury or even the Mahomes injury itself, that's making excuses for obvious regression. Now, before we get into this week's questions, I've got a free roll link for you guys. Had Tofandle dot Com slash League slash Brandon enter your daily fantasy lineup for free, and I have a shot to win free number five or premium and even a little bit of cash. A's fandol dot Com slash League slash Brandon to enter. This first question is from at Bolt's chief, what the hell do we do with David Johnson? Sorry to the kids, zero trade value, zero touches last week? Is he a hold and see what happens? Player? I think you answered the question within the question here, he's a hold. Your hope is that his poor performance has been partially injury related and that out of the bye he'll be healthier. Kenyan Drake's been good, but zero touches for David Johnson tells me at least something is going on, So you've got to just hold tight and hope that things can turn around. This last questions from at Joe four to one, zero, seven, six, three, nine nine is Todd Gurley back. So I've talked about on my ten trend show all season long how the Rams aren't utilizing their running backs much in the passing game, and even though they saw an increase from their season long average on Sunday night, it was also on very few pass attempts and the number was still below the league average. The target share that they had against the Bears was still below the league's average. And I mentioned the pass attempts thing here because Gurley's kind of been on a snap count this year, or a usage count at least compared to last year. So his almost nineteen percent target share this past week that was great, but it was also just three targets. If he saw a nineteen percent target share on like fifty possible targets, then I'd be more inclined to say that things are really trending up for Todd Gurley, since that would be more overall volume, and that's where they've seemed to be worried about Giry Instead, I'm less optimistic. Now. Gurley had seen the type of running back rush share that he had in Week eleven earlier this year, but he hadn't had a combination of running back share and target share like he had against the Bears. So that's good news. But it's hard for me to sit on this show and say that he's back because that's too strong of a take. I think it's good news, and I think that he's trending up. Maybe that's not a bold take, but I'm not gonna mention bold takes. Just for this of mentioning them. This next question is from at Jake Anderson FF. Who is your favorite deep running back stash for the rest of the season. Thanks, So, two things need to happen in order for running backs to come out of nowhere and be useful from here on out. They either need the player in front of them to get hurt or they need to overtake that player who's in front of them. Remember we're talking about deep stashes here, so chances are you're just looking at handcuffs and I can't predict injuries to know the exact handcuffs that will be useful. But I do think one interesting player could be Benny Snell. Jalen Samuels has been getting a lot of receiving volume when he's been the featured back, but so far he hasn't played all that well. James Connor has been banged up all year. The Steelers have been a fairly run heavy team playing good defense, and they get the Cardinals, the Bills, and the Jets and the Fantasy football playoffs. So maybe Benny Snell's gonna be usable. But like I said, the most useful output that you're likely going to get from a running back is via an injury. That's how the position works in fantasy. This next question is from someone who's handle I can't really pronounce, but it says, please describe the schedule adjusted part of points versus opponents. I get the straight up numbers, but don't quite grasp that qualifier. Sorry, I was an English major. So let's just use an example. Matt Ryan's averaging nineteen point one fantasy points per game. Aaron Rodgers is averaging eighteen point eight. But clearly Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers haven't faced the same opponents. So in order to see which player is actually playing better in fantasy given the opponents that they faced, you could look at the average points allowed by those opponents and see which player is exceeding that number. More So, even though Matt Ryan is averaging more points, Aaron Rodgers may be playing better fantasy wise given his schedule. And you can do that in reverse or for specific matchups as well. Look at how well teams have performed against certain positions in fantasy football, and then see how those positions perform the rest of the season, and just compare and contrast. So when I say that a team is allowing x amount of points above or below expectation a certain position and fantasy it's based on how that team's opponent scored throughout the entirety of the season. Sometimes teams are going to face tough opponents, so later in the season, when that information is a little bit more reliable, it lets us see if that's been the case or not. That's really what the schedule adjusted numbers thing is all about. This last question is from at Hunter Underscore MC eleven. Should I have enough confidence in Aaron Rodgers to start him every week? Moving forward? Ten team one Quarterback League? Thanks JJ love the pod. Hey thanks, I mean, look, we've seen Aaron Rodgers not be reliable this year in fantasy football on multiple occasions, so I don't think that he's a weekly must start. There are only a few quarterbacks in the league right now who are and I don't think he's part of it. He also gets San Francisco this week and then Chicago during the fantasy playoffs. Rogers was QB twenty four against Chicago earlier in the year, QB twenty four against Denver, QB twenty two against Dallas, and he's been QB twenty one and QB twenty two over his last two games. Let's not pretend that he's been lights out as a fantasy asset. Does he have a ceiling almost as high as anyone, Yes, but there are weeks where there may be a better option for you, especially in a ten team league. This xt questions from at fen Bagpa Will Leonard Fournette ever score again? Now? Look, I know that this is more of a joke than anything else, but the last couple of games for Jacksonville have been kind of a bummer because they've had such negative game scripts. And week nine they ran seventy one offensive plays while trailing. In Week eleven it was fifty one. It's kind of hard for running back to find the end zone when his team is throwing at a higher rate because of game script. So I will just say I just want to throw it out there. It's been an unfortunate couple of weeks for Leonard Fournette. This next question is from at KC of ATX. Sorry for repeating the same question, but it's my biggest focus in my main league. Who would you be targeting here at the end of the season in a full rebuild in a dynasty league, had to blow up my uncompetitive roster. Thanks love the show. The top thing to do in situations like this is the look underperforming rookies you liked coming out, and then look at players who are injured that are also on competitive teams. Some of those underperforming rookies could be someone like Andy Isabella, maybe jj R Sega Whiteside, maybe even AJ Brown. It's really gonna be team dependent though, Like, for instance, a team that's not doing very well, they're not just gonna give up one of these rookies at a cheaper price because they're not gonna win this year anyway. And for the record, this is how I approach almost anything in fantasy football trades. It's not just about getting specific players. When you do that, you tend to overpay. It's about finding teams that need what you have and vice versa. That's why the overarching idea here is to get underperforming rookies and players who are hurt. Focus less on the specific player and more on that idea. This ask questions from at D A E. Lnic. I can't pronounce that. It says, please talk about how you use betting resources such as number fire to make fantasy football lineup decisions. Thanks Yeah. So I mentioned odds Fire basically every week on this show, which you guys can go check out at oddsfire dot com. And I mentioned how I use odds Fire for my own research, and that's true. I use it. I want to see where lines are moving and where money's being placed, because it can tell me if games are looking like they're gonna be lower scoring or higher scoring. And I want players who are in higher scoring games. So if the line is moving up and we all of a sudden have a shootout on our hands, I want players that are gonna be part of that shootout. So in the case of tiebreakers in season long, I'll pick the player in the higher scoring contest. But for daily fantasy, it's obviously important for things like game stacking. Odds Fire can help you figure all of that out. This last question says love the show. Thanks. Looking to have two defenses going into the playoffs. I have the Steelers and Patriots right now. Incredibly, the Ravens are available in my league. Of these three, what would be the best combo? I mean, they're all pretty elite options. You could argue they're the best three defenses for fantasy purposes that you can find for the fantasy playoffs, and I can't I believe I'm saying this, but I'd consider rostering all three of them if it meant that a league mate couldn't have the Ravens defense. It does sound like you're in a relatively shallow league, though, but that's probably the move now. If you can't do that, I'd prefer Baltimore over Pittsburgh only because I trust that they'll be able to see more positive game scripts defensively, and they're playing as the best unit in football right now. But it really shouldn't shock anyone if any of those three defenses are able to dominate down the stretch. This next question is from at Shift Work Life HIJJ love the show. Thanks. I'm out of the playoffs in my keeper league, sad, but this week I'm dealing with injuries and heavy buys. My opponent is fighting for a first round by Is it ethical for me to not play a quarterback this week so that I don't have to drop a capable asset? Thanks? Look, the way that I feel about any of these types of questions is that if there aren't rules around it, then it's fine. If no one has ever stated that you have to fill your roster that you have to fill a starting lineup, then you don't have to do it. That's as long as you're not doing this to benefit your league mate's team. If you're partially making this move to help that person's team, then that's not okay. But the bottom line is you should do everything within the rules of your league, and you should do everything to benefit your own team and no one else's. It's not okay if you're doing this to benefit someone else's team. But I think it's as simple as that. This next question is from at d Stens Underscore eight. Is Philip Lindsay a sneaky league winner this year with his playoff schedule? So this sort of plays into what I talked about on my matchup show this week with Royce Freeman. Since Joe Flacco has been out and not the starter, Denver running backs aren't being fed nearly as much as receivers. Philip Lindsay had a five percent target share this past week, and he saw zero targets in Week nine. The schedule is good in weeks fifteen and sixteen, but they could also see a negative game script in that Week fifteen game against Kansas City if that's the case, and there hasn't been a quarterback change. There's definitely some fear that Lindsay won't see enough receiving volume to be a league winner. Now. I like his spot and I think that he should be started. In all that, I'm just mostly referencing league winner here. I think his usage needs to improve before we can say that that's gonna do it for today's show, though, Thanks to all of you for listening. If you've got subscribe to the Late Round podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found, and don't forget to follow me on Twitter at Late Round QB and if you're on Apple Podcasts, do me a favor and leave a rating and review of the show. Thanks everyone, enjoy your weekend and best of luck in week twelve.