792: Bold Predictions

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Speaker 1: This is the Late Podcast with your host jaj zacher rethas j Jae zacher reson. What's up everyone, It's jj zachar Esen in this episode seven hundred and ninety two of the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast sponsored by FanDuel. Thanks for tuning in. I've been doing this Bold Predictions episode for years now, and it's always an episode that people ask me about because they look forward to it more than other episodes. I think it has to do with my general approach to fantasy football. On this show. On the Late Round podcast, I'm usually giving you analysis that focuses on a player's range of outcomes. I want to give you the tools to make your own decisions, all while injecting some of my own takes. But my takes are generally I could see this happening, but I also recognize that this could happen too. It doesn't mean that I don't have strong takes I do. It just means that I look at this game through the lens of probability. With this Bold Predictions episode, I sort of take that away. I'm only looking at one side of a player's range of outcomes to come up with these predictions. It's a little different than my typical take, which is probably why people want this episode. I also try my best to frame my bold predictions in a realistic way. What good is it if I sat here and said, Chris Alave is gonna finish as the wide receiver seventy five this year. That's just stupid. It's a silly prediction. I still want this to be actionable in some way, so with that in mind, I'll be talking through ten bold predictions for the fantasy football season. There were five more that were emailed out with the Late Round newsletter, and if you're not subscribed to that newsletter, you can do so for free at lateround dot com. You won't get the other bold predictions if you did that after the Bold Predictions newsletter went out, but you can read those predictions in the newsletter archive on the site. Just make sure that you're signed up for the newsletter because number one, it's totally free. Number two, you get additional content for me. I'd assume that if you're listening to this show, you'd be open to the idea of more content for my brain. So sign up now for free at late round dot com. All right, let's get to these predictions Tony Pollard will finishes this year's top Fantasy football running back. This predictions bold because yes, Pollard does get drafted high, but not as the RB one. He's usually a second round pick in a lot of drafts. Now. Tony Pollard's a good running back. He's seen runs of ten plus yards and at least thirteen percent of his rushes and three or four seasons in the league. He's one of just fifteen qualified running back since twenty eleven with three or more of those seasons. But he's only played four years in the league. That's how efficient he's been per rush. As we know, Ezekiel Elliott is no longer on the Cowboys. Zeke has missed three games over the last three seasons. In those games, Pollard's running back rush are per game seventy three point four percent. That's a very strong number. He had an avge of about sixteen carries per game. His PPR output was thirty one point two points, thirty three point seven points, and twenty one point eight points. The ceiling is insane for Tony Pollard in this offense. It's evident maybe he doesn't get there. Maybe they use other backs more than we think in this offense, but clearly the RB one overall is in his range of outcomes, Rashad White will outscore Travis Etn. This prediction's bowld because Rashad White goes well after Travis Etn in drafts. There was one game last year where White played without Leonard Fournette. In that game, he had a twenty one point four percent target chair he scored nineteen point nine PPR points. Now, I'm not expecting that kind of production from him week in and week out. It's not a great Buccaneers offense. We don't even know if for Shod White's good or not. What I do feel confident in though, is that he's a good pass catcher. In my prospect model, he comped very favorably to David Johnson and he had one of the best pass catching profiles that you could find, and that goes a very long way in a running back scoring a lot of fantasy points. Now, on the flip side, Travis Etn, what if he ends up being a between the twenties runner. Tank Bigsby's in town. What if they want to use Tank Bigsby more at the goal line? After all, Travis Etn converted just three of thirteen goal line rushes last year. What if they want to use Tank Bigsby Moore as a receiver. Etn didn't even hit an eight percent target chair per game rate last year. So there is a chance, I'm not saying this will happen, but there's a chance that Bigsby digs in to Travis Etn's workload and he takes away the touches that are most valuable. So even if that happens to some degree, that means Etn is not going to live up to his ADP expectation. And then if Rashad White does see a twelve thirteen percent target share in his offense, he can exceed his and that's how Rashad White would outscore Travis Etn. Both the Fante Johnson and George Pickens will finish as top twenty four wide receivers. This one's bold because according to Fantasy Pro's expert consensus rankings, Johnson's wide receiver twenty eight, Pickens's wide receiver thirty six. But this can happen on average. Since twenty eleven, we've basically seen four or five wide receiver teammates finish in the top twenty four per season. Now, there's some obvious candidates this year, the Bengals, the Eagles, the Dolphins, But what about the Steelers. Historically middle round wide receivers who have middle round wide receiver teammates without a pass catcher being drafted early from that team, they end up exceeding average draft position expectation at a really strong rate. Johnson and Pickens play two distinct roles in this offense. Johnson's probably gonna have the higher target chair Pickens the higher down the field a dot. If this Pittsburgh Steelers offense takes a step forward, both of them could benefit greatly. Jaden Reid will lead the Packers in reception during the second half of the season. This one's bold because Read's a late round option who gets drafted after teammates Christian Watson Romeo Dobs. But this could happen. Wouldn't shock anyone if Jaden Reed is just the best wide receiver on this team, if he ends up being better than Christian Watson and Romeo Dobbs. Now, don't take that the wrong way. Christian Watson's one of my highest roster players this year. I talked about that on last week's Mailbag episode. He's the right risk reward type of pick. But we don't know for sure that Watson's going to be a stud. We don't know for sure that he's gonna command a super high target share. Christian Watson's scored in my prospect model looked almost identical to Jaden Reids. The expectation is that Reid's going to be their main slot guy to start the season. He's gonna be on the field in three wide receiver sets. If he shows out and if the other two wideouts don't live up to the hype, then he could have a big second half like we see with a lot of rookie wide receivers. Ty Chandler will outscore Damien Harry Harris. This one's bold because at the moment, Chandler's RB sixty seven according to Fantasy pros expert consensus rankings, Harris is RB forty one. As I wrote in the newsletter, this might be the most random, bold prediction that you've ever heard in your life. Damian Harris is just not the type of running back that I go after. James Cook is slated to see the most touches in that Bill's backfield this year, and we know that Damian Harris is not that much of a pass catcher. And then all the while Latavious Murray has had a good summer. What if Murray ends up being the RB two in this offense. What if Murray's the guy who's seeing goal line work. I'm not saying that that's what I'm projecting, but it's at least possible. Right now, Damian Harris absolutely needs that goal line work in order to be usable in fantasy football. All the while, Ty Chandler is looking like the second best running back in that Minnesota offense behind Alexander Madison, and as we know, Madison doesn't have a ton of experience being a lead back in the NFL. And Chandler was an interesting prospect who entered the league with a comp of Elijah Mitchell. In my prospect model, he's a really good compliment to Alexander Madison. But I think that he could steal some receiving work too out of that backfield. So for this bold prediction to come true, we basically need two things to happen. Number One, Damien Harris doesn't scored nearly as many touchdowns as a lot of us are projecting. Maybe Latavius Murray has something to do with that, and then number two Chandler's gonna have to dig into the receiving role in that Minnesota backfield. I think both of those things are possible. Austin Eckler will fail to finish as a top five running back in points per game. This one's bold because a lot of people have Eckler as the RB two in fantasy football. Now. It's fine if you want to draft Austin Eckler this year. I obviously have no problem in drafting him. I did over the weekend. He's in a great offense. They should score a lot of points, and he's probably gonna be the goal line guy, and he's gonna get his fair share in the passing game too. But speaking of that passing game, there are some concerns. The Chargers added Quentin Johnson to the mix, and right now Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are both healthy. That actually might matter because in twenty twenty two, Eckler saw a pretty decent drop in target share when both of those guys were active. Without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the lineup, Eckler's target share per game rate twenty seven point six percent. Absolutely crazy. When Keenan Allen played but Mike Williams didn't, that fell to twenty two point six percent. When Mike Williams played but Keenan Allen didn't. It was twenty point three percent when both of those wide receivers were active. Last year, Eckler's target share per game rate twelve point nine percent. There's a new coordinator in town, and Kellen Moore too. What if he deploys these running backs differently than we expect. What if targets aren't funneled as heavily to Austin Eckler. Again, I'm not saying that that's the probable out I'm just saying that it is an outcome. Like any other running back in fantasy, there are some red flags with Austin Eckler. Kenny Pickett will outscore Aaron Rodgers. This one's bold because Pickett always gets drafted after Aaron Rodgers and drafts I think this can happen, though, given the rushing component. Last season, Kenny Pickett was eleventh in the league and fantasy points per game earned via rushing, he had three point two points per game. Aaron Rodgers ranked behind Matt Ryan. Within that statistic, he averaged point nine to one points per game with his legs. And yeah, Aaron Rodgers is a better passer, That's why he's getting drafted way ahead of Kenny Pickett. But Pickett is entering year two, He's got better weapons than what Aaron Rodgers has. I'm not saying that Deontay Johnson and George Pickens are better than Garrett Wilson. I'm just saying as a whole, so don't underestimate the potential sophomore year jump. And what if Aaron Rodgers Again, thinking in terms of range of outcomes, what if Aaron Rodgers just extends his poor twenty twenty two season, what if he's not the MVP caliber player that we saw a couple of years ago, then all of a sudden, this prediction is not that crazy. At least one rookie tight end will finish as a top eight option in points per game. This one's bold because there have only been two rookie tight ends to finish his top eight options in points per game since twenty eleven. That's PPR points per game. But I think that this could happen this year. For those of you who have not been around this offseason. I have a tight end prospect model that's sort of in beta mode. That model dates back to twenty fifteen, and in that model, there are fourteen tight ends with a ninetieth percentile score or better. Three of those fourteen are from this year's class, Dalton Kincaid, Sam Laporta, and actually Luke Musgrave. All three of those tight ends happen to have immediate opportunity in their offenses. That does not always happen. Rookie tight ends aren't alway running high number of routes because they're learning to both pass, catch, and block. There's a lot to learn at tight end when you enter the NFL. But two tight ends, Kyle Pitts and Evan Ingram, they ran a full number of routes as rookies while sitting in this ninetieth percentile bucket. And it just so happens that Evan Ingram was a top five tight end in PPR points per game as a rookie. Kyle Pitts was tight end eleven, but he only scored one touchdown. Yes, rookie tight ends have historically been very, very bad in fantasy football, but I would argue that Not all of these rookie tight ends have walked into the opportunity that Kinkaid, Laporta, and Musgrave are walking into this season, and not all rookie tight ends are as talented as these guys are. Anthony Richardson will finish as a top seven quarterback. This one's bold because Richardson goes well after QB seven and a lot of drafts, especially more casual maybe home league drafts, fantasy managers are very hesitant to invest in rookie quarterbacks, and I get it. Since eleven, among all rookie signal callers who played at least eight games, only six were able to finish his top twelve players in fantasy points per game. But all six of those players had something in common. They generated points with their legs, shocking, Each of them scored at least three and a half points per game on the ground, and all six of them were able to hit fifty plus rush attempts during that same timeframe. So since twenty eleven, we've had five top ten NFL draft pick quarterbacks who averaged five plus rush attempts per contest as a rookie. Those five were Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and RG three. Three of those players scored at least twenty one Fantasy points per game. The other two were both over seventeen. And I'm saying all of this because Anthony Richardson he is a freak athlete. He's gonna run the ball a lot. He's arguably probably the most athletic quarterback that we've ever seen enter the NFL. So the rushing numbers should be there. If the passing numbers are basically average, he can easily get to this mark. The last bold prediction today is that Zach Sharbonet will outscore teammate Kenneth Walker. This one's bold because Walker was a monster last year, and obviously he gets drafted well above rookie Zach Sharbonet, but this could happen. I'm not taking Sharbonet straight up over Kenneth Walker. Now. I do have more Scharbona this year than Walker, just given cost. I also don't think that this has that high of a chance of hitting without an injury. But I've said this all off season. The Seahawks drafted Zach Sharbonet because he does things that Kenneth Walker does not as a rookie last year, Walker finished last in success rate among one hundred plus attempt backs. He was worst at gaining positive yards per rush. His pass catching wasn't totally there either. He had a seven and a half percent target share per game rate when he took over that backfield. What are the things that we look for in a fantasy football running back. We want goal line work and we want pass catching work. Sharbone is a do it all grinder who can catch passes out of the backfield. Walker wasn't very efficient at the goal line last season. So what if they see Walker as his home run hitting threat, which is exactly what he is. He has that upside per rush, but they see Sharbonnay as more of the grinder, as more of the pick up the tough yards kind of running back. In turn, that could mean that Sharboney sees more goal line work than we're projecting. And then all the while, Kenneth Walker's receiving profile has not really been there dating back basically throughout college. So what if Sharbonay steals receiving work from him too. Again, I'm not projecting this to happen. I'm just saying that in their range of outcomes. Sharboney is seeing the higher value touches from a fantasy perspective, and if that happens, then he could outscore Kenneth Walker. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you yet subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere pod cast can be found, and nofret to follow me on x on Twitter at Late Round QB. Remember to check out the Late Round Draft Guide if your draft is coming up over the next week and a half. You can do that on lateround dot com. And also remember to follow the Late Round Fantasy Football account on Instagram. It can be found on there at Late Round FF. Thanks for listening everyone, I'll talk to you later in the week.