1027: 15 Transactions for Week 5

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Speaker 1: This is the lad Podcast with your host JJ zacherathas J J. Zacher reson.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone?

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Speaker 1: It's JJ zacharyesin in this episode ten to twenty seven of the Late Round Fantasy football podcast sponsored by DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 1: There's no better way to get closer to the action than with DraftKings Daily Fantasy, the ultimate destination for football fans. New customers can play free for their share of millions and prizes with their first a positive five dollars or more. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code Late Round to play free for your share of millions. The Crown is yours. Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler in New York call eight seven to seventy eight, Hope, n y And Connecticut called eight eight eight seventy nine seven seven seven seven eighteen plus most states. Eligibilliony Church supply ends December thirty first See terms at DraftKings dot com slash promotions. It's a fifteen transactions day, Let's get to it. Add Woody Marx. This is now the fourth time that Woody Marks has been featured on this fifteen Transaction show. If you haven't made a move yet. That's on you. You've had your chance. Marx broke out in a big way against the Titans in Week four. He scored twenty seven point nine PPR points. He's now seen his snap share, his running back rush share, his route participation rate, and his target share rise each week of the season. In Week four, he had a fifty seven percent running back rush share and an eighteen percent target share. I was talking to subscribers on the Late Round Fantasy Football discord channel on Monday morning, and I was talking about how Woody Marks is kind of a perfect process example, or at least the process that I like to follow. You've got an excellent pass catching back who's in an ambiguous backfield and is competing with a veteran who's passes Ajapex. As I've said over the last month, why would we not try to take a chance to see if Marx can do something on the ground too. That was a big question mark with him, and with so little to overcome, why would we have not thrown that dart, which hopefully you already have thrown that dart, and hopefully I'm just talking to people who already have Woody Marks on their rosters. But look, guys, you don't need to be precise to answer questions in fantasy football. You just need to ask the questions, and then hopefully when those questions are answered, which is now Woody Marks getting more and more work on the ground, hopefully those players are already on your roster. And there's still a chance that nothing significant comes from Week four, that Woody Marks isn't able to be like an RB two in fantasy football. But I think given his workload and what we saw this past week, there's definitely a chance that he could be an RB two this season. And that's why he's someone that you need to aggressively go after off the waiver wire. Sell DK Metcalf. So Week four was good for DK Metcalf on the production front, but his peripherals are still not amazing. Metcalf still hasn't hit a twenty five percent target share in a single game this year. He's a twenty one percent target chare per game this season. Meanwhile, the Steelers offense, it's just this dink and dunk offense. Aaron Rodgers has the lowest average depth of target and football right now. When offenses are this conservative through the air the way a wide receiver sort of combats that is through a lot of volume. They just need to pile up catches. That's not happening for DK Metcalf, and I don't think there's any reason to believe that's just gonna flip out of their Week five by So if you can trade them away after this big performance, probably not a bad idea, add Wandel Robinson, Darius Slayton and Theo Johnson. The fact that we have to talk about three Giants pass catchers because Malik Neighbors is now done for the year says everything you need to know about how freaking good Malague Neighbors is. And it's so unfortunate that we're not gonna be able to watch them play football until twenty twenty six. But we have to move on. We have to react to what's going on without Neighbors in the mix. Darius Slayton and Wandell R. Robinson, they're going to see an uptick in target share more than likely. I think Robinson's kind of more intriguing because he could play more two wide receiver sets. That's something that he traditionally does not do, and that did happen a little bit in Week four. But Slayton's a really solid player too. He's more of the traditional waiver wire ad because a lot of people already have Robinson. Slayton's been above a fifteen percent target share in more seasons than not throughout his career. He can stretch the field, and that's something that we're going to see from him versus someone like Wandel Robinson.

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Speaker 2: You just don't have to go like absolutely nuts.

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Speaker 1: I don't think Darius Slayton is going to be a league winning player this year, but I think he's.

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Speaker 2: Fine to have rostered.

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Speaker 1: The player that I'm kind of intrigued by, though, is Theo Johnson. A new quarterback. Jackson dart means new tendencies, and the Giants ran a different kind of offense in Week four versus what they'd been doing with Russell Wilson. Theo Johnson finished the day with a season high twenty five percent target share. He's a young, athletic tight end, which is exactly what we want from our fan fantasy tight ends, and he has a chance now to be one of the top options in his passing attack. That's the exact kind of Dart that you want to throw at the tight end position ad Jackson Dart. Now, speaking of Darts, let's talk about these pass catchers, quarterback Jackson Dart. I wrote this in the fifteen Transactions newsletter this week, but I said, the only type of rookie quarterback that I'm generally interested in is a mobile one, and Jackson Dart is a mobile quarterback. He had ten rush attempts in Week four, and after I rewatched those games, I counted six design runs and three scrambles that resulted in fifty four rushing yards in a rushing touchdown. Now, I wasn't able to call out Dart last week because that move happened after the fifteen Transaction Show. They decided to bench Russell Wilson on Tuesday last week. But Darts should be added in most leagues because of this rushing upside. We know how important that is for fantasy quarterbacks. And at the very least, he's a streaming option this week because they're in New Orleans in a play matchup sell Travis etn. Look, I know you've heard me talk about Travis TN as a cell canon already. I talked about it last week on the show. He came out, he had a great game against San Francisco. I'm going to be wrong about stuff all the time, and I might be wrong about how I'm feeling about Travis Etn, and it's one of those situations where I don't even think he's playing poorly. Travis Etn looks pretty good right now, and you might be wondering, then, why would you be selling him? Why would you want to trade him away? Well, fantasy football is more than just talent.

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Speaker 2: Unfortunately. Yes, I want to gobble up as much.

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Speaker 1: Talent as I possibly can on my roster, and talent often does lead to more opportunity, but opportunity still matters a whole lot, and this is also a game about cost. And right now, Etn is an RB one in fantasy football, and I don't think he's gonna finish as an RB one in fantasy football because his workload, while it is pretty good, it's definitely not elite. He did see an uptick in running back rush here in Week four, he was up to eighty two point six percent, which was a season high, but he's still averaging just a seven point four percent target share per game rate. That's because over his last two games, his route share has only hit about thirty five percent. That's not high at all. Etn is getting it done on the ground. More specifically, he's averaging over six yards per carry right now. He has a rushing touchdown in back to back games, which, for the record, one of those rushing touchdowns the defense literally let him score back in Week three, but he did still get points for that, and then he also scored through the air in week two. The bottom line with Etn is that volume in his efficiency that combo almost never holds up. Since twenty eleven, we've had just two seasons where a running back hit two hundred and more carries and a yards per carry above six. That's where Etn is pacing right now. And when you look at these high volume running backs who have five or more yards per carry, you only get two or three of them per season. And look, maybe Travis Etn is going to be that dude. We know that Liam Cohen's offenses can do a lot on the ground, we saw that last year in Tampa Bay. But he is running pretty pure in the touchdown column and he's not getting work as a receiver. And Beshall Tuton, he's looked the part as the RB two in that offense. What if as the season goes on, they want to get touton a little bit more involved. Look, I'm not saying that Travis Etn is not a good fantasy asset. He's clearly a good fantasy asset. And again I'm open to being wrong here. This is just a process thing. I think it's a cell high moment right now because he has top ten production at top twenty usage ad Kenneth Gainwell. So Jalen Warren was kind of a surprise and active against the Vikings and Kenneth Gainwell. He stepped in and he was Pittsburgh's belcal back. He had a seventy seven percent snapshare, he ran around on seventy two percent of Aaron Rodgers dropbacks, and he had a twenty seven percent target shair. Really, if you look at Jalen Warren in week three, how they use Kenneth Gainwell in week four was basically identical Pittsburgh's on By this week, Jalen Warren should be able to heal up because of that buye, but maybe he doesn't. Maybe Kenneth Gainwell is gonna be the RB one out of that bye because Jalen Warren's not ready. Now, I don't think Gainwell is all of a sudden the team's RB one because he had one good game. Jalen warrens had some good games this year too, and I think Jalen Warren is just the better back across a larger sample size. But Kenneth Gainwell might seem more work now after that game in Week four. So for that reason and for Jalen Warren's injury reasons, Gainwell should be rostered by Jacobi Myers. Look, I talk about peripherals all the time, and I compare those peripherals to actual performance. A lot of times those two things are gonna align. A player who sees really good usage is usually gonna score a lot of Fantasy points too. In Week four, though, those things did not align for Jacoby Myers. He had a season high thirty five percent target share and he had a season low seven PPR points. He's had a couple of mediocre performances over the last two weeks, but he started the season off pretty hot. So if his manager's feeling a little down, you might be able to swoop in and get a twenty seven percent target share player on the cheap. That's not easy to do. Ad Bershard Smith. The Chiefs backfield is a full blown committee. Isaiah Pacheco hasn't reached higher than a fifty three percent running back rush here in a game this season, and Kareem Hunt is just plotting his way to a decent amount of work. Then in Week four, we got more Berschard Smith. He was added to the mix more. You know, oftentimes you have to be ahead of backfield changes. That's how you can win in fantasy football. Look at what we did with what he marks. I'd been talking about him for the last month because slowly but surely, he was seeing more and more work in his backfield. More importantly, it was a backfield that he could overtake. All that was in front of him was an aged Nick Chubb. All that's in front of burchhard Smith right now is Kareem Hunting Isaiah Pacheco, two guys who have been really underwhelming. But Burshard Smith is seeing more work in this Kansas City offense. After snap shares in like the ten to fifteen percent range in weeks one through three, it was twenty six percent in week four. And it wasn't just game script related. Burshard Smith was seeing touches on the first drive for Kansas City. Now, I don't think he's gonna be a true bell cow back because that's not really his build. My comp for him in this offense has always been what if he could be like Jerck McKinnon.

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Speaker 2: What if he could play that kind of.

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Speaker 1: Role because he's a really shifty player and he has a great pass catching backbone, And with Isaiah Pachecko and Kareem Hunt not playing very well or at least being more replacement level, I think Burshard Smith makes sense as a stash by Jamison Williams. As I said in the newsletter this week, it's been a very Jamison Williamsy start to the season for Jamison Williams. He's only really given us one great performance this year. It's been the Amen Ross Saint Brown show and that Detroit passing game. I think what we're looking at with Jamison Williams is what we've seen in the past. He hasn't taken that step forward. We're gonna live and die by the deep ball with him, by the big play. The good news, though, is that Williams has been close to some really big performances this year, especially this past week against Cleveland against the Browns. He had a thirty two percent target share that was a season high. He just couldn't convert. He only caught two of eight targets. He finished the week pre Monday Night Football with the highest air yard share in all of football. His average depth of target was over twenty five yards. I do think that better days are ahead for Jamison Williams, especially because he's running around on pretty much every Detroit dropback. And let's be honest, there aren't many reliable offense in fantasy football. We at least know that the Lions are likely gonna put up points, so attaching one of your players to that offense really isn't a bad idea. Just know that it's Jamison Williams and he's a pretty volatile asset, ad Sean Tucker. So the hard part about Waivers running earlier in the week is that we don't have all the information that we need. We don't know who's gonna play, who's not gonna play, who's hurt, and who's not hurt. So we have to plan ahead, and that's what we're doing, was Sean Tucker on Monday. Head coach Todd Bowles said that Bucky Irving was banged up in that game on Sunday and he was getting an MRI. That's all the information I have at the moment considering the usefulness of that Buccaneers backfield. That means that Sean Tucker, who would played behind Rashad White, he should be added this week. Even if it ends up that Bucky Irving's fine, and hopefully he is fine. We know that Shawn Tucker is a capable workhorse last year against the Saints when he had some opportunity and the ball fourteen times for one hundred and thirty six yards in a touchdown, and then he got three passes for fifty six more yards in a score. Admittedly, I've already been stashing Sean Tucker on some deep rosters and the reason for that is because he has multiple outs. If Bucky Irving is out, Shaan Tucker will get elevated. He'll see more work. If for Sean White is out, he'll also see more work. There's multiple paths for Sean Tucker to see more work in this offense. But at this moment, this is just a precautionary thing. Sell Khalil Shakir Khalil Shakiers had back to back games with a touchdown, which is kind of a surprise because he found the end zone just four times last year, and honestly, what he's doing right now probably not that sustainable. When you look at Shaki's numbers year over year, it's not very encouraging. A lot of things are exactly the same. He's running a similar number of routes, he's got a similar low average up to target, all that kind of stuff, but he's been far worse than target share. His target share is just sixteen percent. It was twenty three percent last year. His targets per out run rate that's also sixteen percent when it was twenty five percent last year, and still through four weeks he doesn't have an end zone target, which is not uncommon for Shakir. Look, Khalioshakira is one of my favorites, but the Bill's offense is built to spread the ball around, and you're looking at a lower a dot slot guy who doesn't find the end zone a lot. Not getting volume in that kind of situation is not good for fantasy purposes. A slot player who's seeing targets close to the line of scrimmage, who was not gonna find the end zone. That kind of player needs to be peppered with targets to be relevant in fantasy football. So right now today you might have a cell window by Chris Godwin. Now, I don't know what the market is saying about Chris Godwin right now, but what I can tell you is that he did underperform greatly in Week four. I wasn't that bullish on god Godwin returning from injury, but he actually did end up running around a ninety one percent of Tampa Bay's dropbacks. He turned that into a twenty six percent target chair. He had forty five percent of Tampa Bay's air yards. He had more air yards than at met Igbuca, and then he tied Igbuca with ten targets against Philadelphia. The difference, though, is that Igbuka converted Godwin only caught three of his ten targets for twenty six yards. Maybe the Godwin manager they're looking at that stat line and they're saying, nothing's gonna come from this.

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Speaker 2: They're not very encouraged.

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Speaker 1: But I'm actually extremely encouraged given what we saw in the usage front. I think as Godwin gets up to speed, he's gonna produce a lot more So if you can buy low for whatever reason, I'd say go for it. Add Jaden Blue. You guys sick of this yet, I promise you. I didn't want to talk about Jaden Blue, but Miles Sanders hurt his ankle on Sunday night. The Cowboys have been dressing just Sanders and Javonte Williams at running back each week, and rather than using that traditional third running back, they've gone for fullback Hunter Lipkey. At this moment, I don't know if Miles Sanders is going to miss any time with his injury, but he did miss significant portions of that game on Sunday. If he does miss time, I would expect Jayden Blue to finally dress for the Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: And he's one of those.

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Speaker 1: Players where if he just gets three or four touches in his first game, he has a chance to do something with those touches because he's really electric with the ball in his hands.

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Speaker 2: So this is really just speculative.

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Speaker 1: I have no idea how long Miles Sanders is going to be out, if he's going to be out at all, but if he is out, I would expect Jaden Blue to finally get the call by Bill Krossky Merrit if you were to ask a random fantasy manager right now how they felt about that Washington Commander's backfield, they'd probably tell you that they want nothing to do with it. I mean, in Week four, Chris Rodriguez, he had twenty offensive snaps. Jaquori Krossky married he also had twenty. Jerry McNichols had nineteen. Chances are the most likely outcome here is we're going to see a split backfield for Washington from here on out.

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Speaker 2: But guys, what if we don't.

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Speaker 1: We think about range of outcomes all the time during draft season when we go and pick a player, we think about how high that player's ceiling could be.

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Speaker 2: But we seem to not do it as much in season. We should, though, We should continue to think that way.

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Speaker 1: And I'm saying right now, Crosskey Merritt has been the best running back in that backfield. He's been a really good running back in general.

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Speaker 2: This year.

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Speaker 1: Next Gen Stats has Crosskey Merrit with the best success rate in football pre Monday Night Football, no qualified running back has a higher EPA per rush. His rushing yards overexpected per rush ranks third best, and right now PFF has engraded as the top running back in football hear me out here, What at Jacory krossky Merritt is just really good? What if he becomes undeniably good? At this moment, you don't have to spend much to find out. He's in a committee backfield. He's averaging just eight point four PPR points per game. Nothing tells us that they're gonna change up that backfield in the near future. But he's the kind of player. This is the kind of talent profile that I want to have stashed on my bench.

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Speaker 2: Because it's a.

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Speaker 1: Really long season, you guys, a lot of things can change, and by the time week twelve, Week thirteen hits, this backfield has a chance a chance.

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Speaker 2: To look totally different. Add the Cleveland Browns defense.

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Speaker 1: So I shout at the Browns defense out on last week's Late Round Fantasy Football show. I think they're easily the top streamer this week. They're gonna be back at home and they get the Vikings. Minnesota's offensive line is a mess right now, super banged up, and they've been a below average team at stopping defensive pressures this season, that's cording to Next Gen stats. Meanwhile, Cleveland's the sixth best defense and pressure rate this game has just a thirty six and a half point total. The Vikings have an implied total of just twenty points, so Cleveland makes a ton of sense this week.

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Speaker 2: So we've got a.

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Speaker 1: Bonus transaction this week. It's to add Malik Washington and Darren Waller. Unfortunately, Tyreek Hill had a really gruesome knee injury on Monday Night Football. At the time of this recording, we don't know exactly how long he's going to be out, but it sounds like he's done for the year. So someone's gonna have to step up. Obviously, Devon Ai Chan could see a higher target chair in Jalen Waddle. He's the obvious go to, but Malik Washington's kind of interesting too. He's operated is Miami's number three wide receiver this year. He's run a route on about two thirds of Miami's dropbacks. Now he's often in the slot. He's run a little over half of his routes from that area of the field, but he's surely gonna be asked to line up all over the formation with Tyreek Hill's sidelined. As I've noted many times on this show, I'm a fan of Washington. I like what he can do after the catch. He has a legit shot to see like a fifteen to twenty percent target share in this offense. That's as long as he can hold off Nick Westbrook Akine, which I think he can. I think he's more talented now. Meanwhile, Darren Waller returned from retirement in Week four. He ended up scoring two touchdowns on three receptions. He was a clear go to read for two a tongue of iloa in the red zone even while splitting work with Julian Hill. Darren Waller's route share was nothing special against the Jets, but do we really expect him to run a ton of routes in his first game back. I think he's worth a look off the waiver wire just to see if his role grows. At the very least it's tight end. Sometimes we're just crossing our fingers that our tight ends can find the end zone. And Darren Waller looks like he has a role there, so you can feel free to add him and Isaiah Davis and Mason Taylor. So we've got one more bonus transaction for you, and it's a double dip. I'm gonna talk about two Jets players. The first one, Isaiah Davis. Braylan Allen got injured in Monday Night's game. He has a knee injury. I have no idea if he's gonna miss any time or how long he's gonna be out, but I think it's an interesting injury because the Jets like to run the football, and I'm a fan of Isaiah Davis.

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Speaker 2: I think he's a good player.

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Speaker 1: It's a really small sample size, but Isaiah Davis was way better than Breece Hall and Braylan Allen last year within basically any efficiency metric, and to me, he passes the eye test. He's more of a pass catcher than Braylan Allen, and we saw that on Monday night. He had ten routes run. Breece Hall had sixteen, that's according to PFF, and Davis caught two passes for eighteen yards. Like I said, the Jets love to run the football, and this week they get Dallas, so Davis could have some flex appeal. And then there's Mason Taylor. He's been getting some run in the Jets offense basically all season long. The production just hasn't been there, but in Week four it was. He tied Garrett Wilson for the team lead and targets, and he's now seen back to back games with at least a fifteen percent target shair, so as an up and coming rookie talent, he should also be on your radar. That's it for today's show, though, thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribe to the Late Round Fantasy Football podcast, make sure you are by searching for it pretty much anywhere podcast can be found. Follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone. I'll catch you tomorrow with the weekly ten Trends episode